Net migration hit a record-breaking 745,000 in 2022, according to revised figures from the Office for National Statistics, as its latest numbers showed 672,000 people came to the UK in the 12 months to June 2023.
In its last figures released in May, the ONS said the number for last year was 606,000 – then deemed a record high.
But looking at the numbers again, the organisation now says the actual figure was almost 140,000 higher than first thought, making it an even more unparalleled statistic.
The latest numbers released on Wednesday showed net migration had risen when compared to the 12-month figure up to June 2022, which was 607,000, even though it was lower than the surprise annual stat for last year.
However, the ONS said while today’s number represented a drop from that unparalleled number, it was “too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend”, even though it did indicate a slowing of immigration coupled with increasing emigration.
Net migration is calculated by looking at the number of people arriving in the UK when both immigration (people coming to the UK) and emigration (people leaving the UK) are taken into account.
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Tory backbenchers have already begun to hit out at the numbers, with former minister Simon Clarke saying it was “unsustainable both economically and socially” to have legal migration so high.
Another Conservative MP, Jonathan Gullis, called the figures “completely unacceptable to the majority of the British people”, and called for “drastic action”.
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It comes as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is under increasing pressure from the right of his party to reduce net migration in light of the 2019 Tory manifesto, which promised to bring the “overall number down”.
Home Secretary James Cleverly insisted the government remained “completely committed to reducing levels of legal migration, while also “focusing relentlessly” on tackling illegal migration.
He said ministers were “working across government on further measures to prevent exploitation and manipulation of our visa system, including clamping down on those that take advantage of the flexibility of the immigration system”.
But Labour’s shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, said today’s statistics showed “the scale of utter Tory failure on immigration, asylum, and the economy”.
Expect clamour from Tory right as Sunak seeks to strike delicate balance
It’s more bad news for the government on migration.
There are lots of headline figures coming out of the ONS figures today, but the most important one is that net migration to the UK in the year to December 2022 has been revised up to 745,000.
That is a huge number, both higher than previously thought and a new record.
In the 2019 manifesto, the Conservatives pledged to “bring overall numbers down”, with Boris Johnson talking about 250,000.
Rishi Sunak has tried to move away from specific targets, but he has put immigration, in particular illegal migration, at the heart of his pitch to the country.
Whatever complexities behind rising figures, expect a clamour from the right of the Conservative Party.
I’m told there could be an intervention from former home secretary Suella Braverman who, we understand, along with immigration minister Robert Jenrick, had previously pushed for an overall cap to net migration when she was in office.
We expect we could hear more from the Home Office about measures to bring down net migration as early as next week.
I understand this could include a crackdown on abuses in the visa system, increasing salary thresholds, changes to the rules on bringing families over on working visas and looking again at the shortage occupation scheme.
The PM knows, however, there is a delicate balance to be struck when it comes to economic concerns over workforce shortages.
The current home secretary appears to be keeping a low profile for now, but expect more on net migration over the coming weeks.
James Cleverly knows immigration matters to many voters and to his party.
In 2010, then prime minister David Cameron – now Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron – pledged to bring net migration down to the “tens of thousands”, though successive Tory governments have sought to move away from exact targets.
According to the ONS, most people arriving in the UK in the year to June 2023 were non-EU nationals – a total of 968,000 – followed by 129,000 EU citizens and 84,000 British people.
But both EU nationals and Britons were leaving the country in greater numbers, with 10,000 more EU nationals leaving than arriving and 86,000 more British nationals leaving than arriving – while the net figure for non-EU people was 768,000 more arriving than leaving.
Work was the biggest reason people from outside the EU migrated to the UK – a net figure of 278,000 and the first time employment was the most popular reason – followed by a net figure of 263,000 coming for study.
The recent rise in work visas was mainly driven by people taking jobs in the health and care sectors.
But when it came to those studying, the ONS’s Jay Lindop said the number was rising as “we’re not only seeing more students arrive, but we can also see they’re staying for longer”.
They also said more dependants of people with work and study visas had come to the UK too.
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Meanwhile, the number of people granted asylum to the UK for the year has remained relatively stable, as while it hit 88,000, compared with 73,000 in year to June 2022, ongoing COVID restrictions in that period had an impact.
The ONS said migration to the UK had been “relatively stable” before the COVID pandemic, but “patterns and behaviours have been shifting considerably since then”.
The statistics experts said net migration had “increased sharply” since 2021 due to a rise in immigration from non-EU countries – including people coming by humanitarian routes from Ukraine and Hong Kong – as well as an increase in non-EU students and workers.
Government wants to bring migration down
The government has insisted it remains committed to reducing migration, and has already introduced measures to reduce the figure, including stopping international students who come to the UK from bringing family with them except under specific circumstances.
The New Conservatives group on the Tory right has called for ministers to close temporary visa schemes for care workers and to cap the number of refugees resettling in the UK at 20,000, in a bid to reduce net migration to 226,000 by the time of the election.
Last week, the Supreme Court ruled that Mr Sunak’s policy of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda – a key part of his plan to stop small boats crossing the Channel – was unlawful.
The Rwanda policy would see anyone arriving in the UK by unauthorised means, such as by Channel crossings, deported to the African country to claim asylum there and not the UK.
But in its landmark ruling last Wednesday, the Supreme Court ruled that those sent to Rwanda would be at “real risk” of being sent back to their country of origin regardless of whether their asylum claim was justified or not – something that would breach international human rights laws.
In the aftermath of the ruling, Mr Sunak doubled down on the policy, telling MPs he was prepared to “change laws and revisit… international relationships” if they were “frustrating” his plans.
However, he also acknowledged that even if domestic laws were changed, the government could still face legal challenges from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) and vowed: “I will not allow a foreign court to block these flights.”
The stalemate over Rwanda has bolstered calls from some in the Tory party for the UK to withdraw from the ECHR altogether after an injunction last June stopped the first scheduled flights from taking off.
“A wave of new cafes, bars, music venues and outdoor dining” could come to the UK – as the government unveils plans to overhaul planning rules and “breathe new life into the high street”.
Under the proposals, ministers also want to reform licensing rules to make it easier for disused shops to be converted into hospitality venues.
In a statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said she planned to scrap “clunky, outdated rules… to protect pavement pints, al fresco dining and street parties”.
The reforms also aim to prevent existing pubs, clubs, and music venues from suffering noise complaints when new properties hit the market.
Developers who decide to build near those sites will be required to soundproof their buildings.
Image: Reuters file pic
As part of dedicated “hospitality zones”, permission for al fresco dining, street parties and extended opening hours will be fast-tracked.
The government says the reforms aim to modernise outdated planning and licensing rules as part of its Plan for Change, to help small businesses and improve local communities.
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The rough plans will be subject to a “call for evidence” which could further shape policy.
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the proposals will “put the buzz back into our town centres”.
“Red tape has stood in the way of people’s business ideas for too long. Today we’re slashing those barriers to giving small business owners the freedom to flourish,” he said.
The hospitality industry has broadly welcomed the changes but argued tax reform was also essential.
Kate Nicholls, chairwoman of UKHospitality, described the proposals as “positive and encouraging”.
However, she added: “They can’t on their own offset the immediate and mounting cost pressures facing hospitality businesses which threaten to tax out of existence the businesses and jobs that today’s announcement seeks to support.”
While supporting the reforms, Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA), had a similar message.
“These changes must go hand in hand with meaningful business rates reform, mitigating staggering employment costs, and a cut in beer duty so that pubs can thrive at the heart of the community,” she said.
In July, BBPA estimated that 378 pubs will shut this year across England, Wales and Scotland, compared with 350 closures in 2024, which it said would amount to more than 5,600 direct job losses.
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Pubs closing at a rate of one a day
Bar chain Brewdog announced this week that it would close 10 sites, partly blaming “rising costs, increased regulation, and economic pressures”.
Andrew Griffith MP, shadow business secretary, said: “Though any cutting of red tape for hospitality businesses is welcome, this is pure hypocrisy and inconsistency from Labour.”
He said the government was “crippling the hospitality industry by doubling business rates, imposing a jobs tax and a full-on strangulation of employment red tape”.
A campaign group for a third runway at Heathrow that gets funding from the airport has been distributing “incredibly misleading” information to households in west London, according to opponents of the expansion.
The group, called Back Heathrow, sent leaflets to people living near the airport, claiming expansion could be the route to a “greener” airport and suggesting it would mean only the “cleanest and quietest aircraft” fly there.
It comes as the airport prepares to submit its planning application for a third runway ahead of the 31 July deadline, following the government’s statement of support for the expansion.
Image: A plane lands over houses near Heathrow Airport. Pic: PA
Back Heathrow calls itself a “local campaign group of over 100,000 residents” and does not mention the funding it receives from the airport in the newsletter.
Its website also does not mention the current financial support and says it “initially launched with funding from Heathrow Airport but we have since grown”.
Back Heathrow also told Sky News it had “always been open” about the support it receives from the airport.
At the bottom of every web page, the organisation says: “Back Heathrow is a group of residents, businesses and community groups who have come together to defend the jobs that rely on Heathrow and to campaign for its secure future.”
Heathrow Airport said it had always been clear about funding Back Heathrow, but would not disclose how much it provides.
Image: Parmjit Dhanda in 2009 at the hustings to be Speaker of the House of Commons. Pic: Reuters
Who’s behind Back Heathrow?
The group’s executive director is former Labour minister Parmjit Dhanda, who was MP for Gloucester from 2001 to 2010 and sits on the National Policy Forum – the body responsible for developing Labour policy.
Latest accounts for Back Heathrow show it had five employees, including its two directors, in the financial year ending 30 June 2024. The second director is John Braggins, a former campaign adviser to Tony Blair.
The business had £243,961 in cash, the accounts show.
What are the group saying?
In the newsletter, executive director Mr Dhanda said people ask if Heathrow is sustainable. In answering the question, he appeared to suggest the airport can dictate what types of planes use Heathrow.
“We can build a cleaner, greener and smarter airport – using more sustainable aviation fuel, ensuring only the cleanest and quietest aircraft fly here, reduce stacking in our skies and modernise our airspace to cut emissions in flight,” he wrote.
When asked by Sky News what Back Heathrow meant and what the source for the claim was, the organisation pointed to the airport’s traffic light system of noise and emission measurements for the 50 largest airlines serving Heathrow.
“The scheme helps to see what areas certain airlines are excelling in and where improvements can be made,” a spokesperson said.
But those “cleaner and greener” claims were dismissed as “myths” by one campaigner.
Image: Back Heathrow’s spring 2025 newsletter
Finlay Asher is an aerospace engineer and co-founder of Safe Landing, a group of aviation workers and enthusiasts seeking climate improvements in the industry.
He said the emissions savings from sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) were “highly debatable” – but added that even if they were taken at face value, use of these fuels is “relatively low” and so only provides small emissions reductions.
“Air traffic growth at Heathrow will wipe this out,” he said.
Mr Asher also disputed the claim that only the cleanest and quietest aircraft will fly at Heathrow. “There is no policy in place which prevents older generation aircraft from being operated out of any airport,” he said.
As for reducing “stacking” – where aircraft wait over an airport to land – Mr Asher said if that’s the goal, “adding more aircraft to the sky won’t make this easier”.
Opposition to Back Heathrow’s claims also came from Rob Barnstone, founder of the No Third Runway Coalition, which is funded by five local authorities surrounding Heathrow Airport.
He said that regardless of fuel efficiencies or new quieter engines, having the additional 260,000 flights Heathrow has said will be created with an extra runway – in addition to the airport’s current cap of 480,000 – would create “an awful lot of noise”.
“For all the best will in the world, Heathrow is a very, very, very noisy neighbour… When you’re adding a quarter of a million additional flights, that’s going to create an awful lot of emissions, even if they’re using planes that are ever so slightly less environmentally damaging than previous planes,” Mr Barnstone said.
Green claims
Under the heading of “UK sustainable fuel industry for Heathrow”, Back Heathrow said “advances in electric and hydrogen powered aircraft can ensure we meet our environmental targets”.
Elaborating on this, Back Heathrow told Sky News: “Zero-emission electric and hydrogen aircraft are very much the end goal for civil aviation and countries like Norway have set 2040 as the year that all of their short-haul flights will be by electric planes.”
The statement was called “incredibly misleading” by Dr Alex Chapman, senior economist at the left-leaning think tank New Economics Foundation (NEF).
“There’s just absolutely no confidence that those aircraft are going to have any meaningful impact on emissions and commercial aviation in any reasonable time frame. And, yeah, we can all speculate as to what may not happen in 50 years’ time. But I think the people living around the airport should be given the information about what’s actually realistic.”
Even if the technology were available, the runway may not be ready for it, Dr Chapman said.
“Perhaps more importantly, there’s been no indication so far that the proposed new runway is being built to cater for those types of aircraft, because a runway that caters to electrical, hydrogen powered aircraft would be very different to one that was for conventional fuel, particularly in terms of the fuelling infrastructure around it that would be required: pipes to pipe hydrogen, massive charging power facilities.”
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Heathrow CEO on expansion plans
While work is under way to develop electric aircraft, there are currently no commercial electric flights taking place. The best-case scenario is battery-powered flights that may be suitable for short journeys.
But as a major international airport, more than 40% of Heathrow’s flights are long-haul and medium-haul.
And while airlines such as easyJet have called for government funding to develop hydrogen flying suitable for short-haul flights, there are obstacles to making regular commercial flights a reality.
Providing enough hydrogen for the plane journeys from renewable sources will be challenging, as will transporting the fuel, and reworking airport infrastructure for hydrogen refuelling.
Plans for hydrogen aircraft are at least a decade away, with Airbus saying it wants to get a 100-seat hydrogen plane in the air by 2035 – although Back Heathrow’s estimates for a third runway have flights taking off in 2034.
For now, rising emissions from flying are risking the UK’s climate targets, according to the independent government advisers of the Climate Change Committee, who found flights contribute more greenhouse gas than the entire electricity supply sector.
Image: Back Heathrow’s spring 2025 newsletter
Expanding at ‘full capacity’
On the first page of the newsletter, Back Heathrow says “Heathrow is at full capacity”, but the company told Sky News the airport has been “operating at 98% capacity since 2005”.
Despite its 98% capacity, Heathrow Airport has broken passenger number records every year for the past 14 years – excluding the pandemic years of 2020 to 2023.
Dr Chapman said Heathrow is at capacity regarding the government-imposed flight cap, not at the capacity of the current runway infrastructure.
“So if the government were, for example, to lift that cap on the number of aircraft movements, it’s pretty likely that they could actually fly 10% to 20% more flights out of the existing infrastructure,” he said.
As aeroplanes have expanded to carry more passengers, the airport has welcomed more people, he added.
The airport earlier this month announced plans to increase its capacity by 10 million passengers a year, before a third runway is built, and to raise the charge paid by passengers to fund the investment.
A Heathrow spokesperson said: “Back Heathrow represents tens of thousands of local people who want to make their views known on the importance of Heathrow to their communities and livelihoods today and into the future.
“We have always been clear that, alongside individual residents, local business groups and trade unions, we provide funding for Back Heathrow to provide a voice for local people who historically have not been heard in the debate about expanding Heathrow.”
Speaking for the campaign group, Mr Dhanda said: “At Back Heathrow we are proud of our link to Heathrow Airport (the clue is in the name).
“We have always been open about the fact that we receive support from the airport and that they helped set the organisation up to balance the debate about expansion at a time when the voices of ordinary working people from the diverse communities around Heathrow were not being heard.”
“Back Heathrow also receives support from trade unions, local businesses and residents from amongst the 100,000 registered supporters it now has,” he added.
“We want an end to the dither and delay. Back Heathrow supporters want to see economic growth and the thousands of new jobs and apprenticeships a new runway will create.”