Oxy CEO Vicki Hollub doesn’t seem worried about White House pressure on buybacks, oil prices
Occidental (long known as Occidental Petroleum) was the No. 1-performing stock in S&P 500 last year, but it didn’t get there by way of massive growth in oil and gas production. While fossil fuels have the tailwind of the Russia-Ukraine war resetting energy policy and priorities around the globe, on Wall Street, it’s the recent capital discipline displayed by energy companies that has been as a big a factor in market performance.
The boom and bust cycles of the past when oil rig count exploded in line with the latest high price in crude oil are now seen as a cautionary tale. “We’ve seen that movie before,” Hess CEO John Hess said at the annual CERAWeek energy conference on Tuesday. That new fiscal approach from the energy patch has not made the White House happy, especially when oil prices and oil company profits were at a peak last year. The blowback from President Biden has continued, with recent buyback programs from companies including Chevron attracting renewed scrutiny. But when you listen to the way Chevron CEO Mike Wirth talked about its plans to increase the level of buybacks for shareholders, it seems the White House was an afterthought — if any thought was given to it.
Long-time energy sector analyst Paul Sankey put it this way after the recent Chevron earnings call: “I would be absolutely certain many in the White House own Chevron stock in their 401ks. In DC, it is clear that politicians have no comprehension of 1) what a buyback is and 2) how many Americans own stocks in their pension funds/401ks. The tone of Mike’s delivery, and he is a relaxed and confident guy, indicated that they were not really considering Washington, D.C.”
Wirth isn’t the only one sitting in the driver’s seat at a major oil and gas company who seems to have little time to worry about the way the White House views stock buybacks.
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Occidental’s approach has attracted the world’s most-famous investor, with the company quickly growing to be among the top 10 stocks held by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway over the past several years (second to Chevron among Buffett’s public energy stock holdings). Buffett recently made clear (for the umpteenth time) what he thinks about politicians weighing in on buybacks.
With roughly 12% production growth, Occidental could produce more. And in fact, one point the White House has made is that oil companies are spending too much on “enriching” shareholders and not enough on producing more. But when asked by CNBC’s Brian Sullivan on Monday at CERAWeek if the company could produce more, Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub answered in a direct way that defies any concern about political pressure:
“We do,” Hollub said, have the ability to produce more oil, “but we have a value proposition that includes an active buyback program and also a growing dividend and we always want to make sure we max out our return on capital employed. So we are very careful with how we structure our capital program on an annual basis to make sure we still have sufficient cash to buy back shares.”
This year, Occidental authorized a new $3 billion share repurchase authorization and a 38% increase to its dividend. It completed $3 billion in share repurchases last year, with $562 million of repurchases in the fourth quarter.
Frederick Forthuber, president of Oxy Energy Services, said separately at CERAWeek that U.S. oil production will grow by about 500,000 barrels per day this year, with 80% or 90% of that coming from the Permian basin, according to Reuters. Hollub noted in her CNBC interview that current capacity as measured in total barrels produced per day — nearly 12 million bpd in 2022 and projected by the EIA to reach over 12 million bpd this year — has not changed significantly from the pre-pandemic world, though the EIA forecast would be a new record. Its outlook for gas prices is an average $3.57/gallon this year.
For consumers still worried about the price of gas at the pump, which has come down significantly along with crude prices from last summer’s high, don’t look to Hollub for more relief. Gas prices are right where they should be right now, she says, and are likely to stay this way.
“Prices are in a good place right now, in the $75-$80 range. That’s a sustainable price scenario for the industry to continue to be healthy and gas prices at the pump are not so bad at this price.”
In fact, she described the situation as “optimum.”
“I do believe the mid-cycle price of oil is close to $80, maybe $75 to $80,” Hollub said. “In that price regime we can balance supply with demand over time,” she added.
If there is risk to gas prices this year, it’s to the upside. “I do think towards the end of the year we will have a little supply issue relative to demand, and it could send prices higher,” she said.
And while the energy CEOs are showing through their words and actions this year that they aren’t buying the White House “Big Oil” rhetoric and will continue to message to the shareholders they’ve been able to win back, Hollub does expect one notable oil buyer to remain on the sidelines this year: the White House.
Amid high gas prices last year, the Biden administration released the most oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on record, 180 million barrels. While the administration has said it will be replenishing the SPR, Hollub doesn’t expect much buying.
“I think we should have more storage in the SPR and over time the administration will buy that storage back and start to refill, but it’s gonna be hard to do any time in the next couple of years, because I do believe we are in a scenario where prices will be higher.”
Among the reasons oil prices will remain higher?
“Lack of supply and lack of investment in our industry over the years,” Hollub said. “I do think they are going to have a difficult time here in the near term.”
Based on the way the oil CEOs are talking, maybe in more ways than one.
Environment
JackRabbit OG2 Pro review: The fun-sized electric microbike that proves less really can be more
When it comes to electric bikes, the JackRabbit OG2 Pro barely qualifies as one – and that’s kind of the point. With no pedals, a seat barely higher than your hip, and a wheelbase shorter than some skateboards, this is less a traditional e-bike and more a bite-sized personal transporter that feels like a cross between a folding bike and an electric scooter.
But after riding it around for the past few months, I can confidently say: it’s an absolute blast. It’s more powerful than it looks, it’s easier to transport than you’d expect, and it’s simply more fun than you can imagine. It’s the small-format whip that I wish had existed years ago.
After its unveiling earlier this year and quickly finding favor in the eyes of Jackrabbit’s surprisingly large fanbase (affectionately self-referred to as “Jacko’s”), this is one ride you’ll want to give a second look.
Check out my video review for a fast and fun look at what it’s like to actually ride this small powerhouse. Then keep reading for my complete thoughts on this fun runabout!
Tiny frame, huge grin factor
The OG2 Pro takes the quirky charm of the original JackRabbit models and pushes it further. It’s small enough to fit in a closet or the trunk of a sedan, yet powerful enough to make short urban trips legitimately fun. The 500-watt rear hub motor and 36-volt battery don’t sound overly powerful on paper, but on such a lightweight frame (just 32 pounds!), the torque hits instantly. It jumps off the line faster than most 750-watt fat-tire bikes I’ve tested. The short wheelbase also means that if you want to be aggressive with the throttle, you can really feel the thing wanting to buck. It’s not going to throw you off or wheelie (unless you want to), but it does give you a sense that it’s not as timid as it looks.
The top speed is limited to about 20 mph or 32 km/h (unless you unlock the 24 mph Off-Road Mode, which requires being 18 years of age or older and signing a waiver on JackRabbit’s website). But even stock, the 20 mph speed feels faster when you’re this low to the ground. It cruises effortlessly through neighborhoods, parking lots, and bike lanes, and feels very agile while doing it.
The handling is nimble, the turning radius is absurdly tight, and it just feels like a weird hybrid of a bike and a scooter. I know it’s a seated affair, but the fact that you can just put your feet down and stand up at any point makes it feel as free as a kickscooter where you don’t have to worry about pedals getting in the way when transitioning from riding and walking or navigating around weird obstacles on foot.
Basically, it feels fun and agile, and it simply puts a big smile on your face because of how unique it feels.
Surprisingly practical for its size
Despite its toy-like appearance, the OG2 Pro is surprisingly capable for daily use. The removable RangeBuster battery gives you 24 miles (38 km) of range – not exactly cross-country material, but more than enough for errands, short commutes, or campus hops. And since the batteries are physically quite small, it’s easy to just chuck a spare one in your backpack – or even a fanny pack, if you’re so inclined.
I found myself using it constantly for short trips – bagel runs, grocery pickups, or cruising the beach paths. You can pick it up with one hand to carry it inside or stash it behind a couch thanks to the sideways folding handlebars and folding foot pegs. That makes it less than 7″ wide (17 cm). Unlike folding bikes that still take up real space, the JackRabbit OG2 Pro just kind of disappears when you’re not using it. That makes it perfect for RV owners, apartment dwellers, or anyone with limited storage.
And yes, it really is portable. With the handlebars folded flat and the foot pegs tucked in, you can carry it right up against your body and it feels surprisingly good – not like you’re carrying an awkward folding e-bike that remains pretty far away from your body, making it feel bulkier. I’ve taken the JackRabbit OG2 Pro on elevators, tossed it in a car trunk, and even loaded it’s bigger brother (the JackRabbit XG Pro) onto a kayak.
What it’s best at: Fun and freedom
At its core, the JackRabbit OG2 Pro is a pure fun machine. There’s something liberating about not needing to pedal, shift gears, or manage settings. You twist the throttle and go – like a carefree summer toy, but for adults. It’s easy for beginners to ride, yet it doesn’t feel dumbed down.
That simplicity is exactly why it’s so addictive. I found myself grabbing it over my “real” e-bikes more often than expected. It’s the one I’d take when I just want something small and easy to ride around and smile, not think about range, cadence sensors, or pedal assist modes.
It’s just easy. “Easy” is perhaps the best word to describe it. It’s easy to use. It’s easy to carry. It’s easy to store. It gives you real, bike-like, stable transportation, but in a 30-ish lb package.
The downsides
Of course, the OG2 Pro isn’t perfect. The lack of pedals means it’s not ideal if you ever run out of battery – though the lightweight frame makes it easy enough to push. And you should never really run out of battery because… just charge the thing when you’re done with it. If you’re going more than 20 miles then this isn’t the ride for you, anyway. Just charge the battery and you’ll never have range anxiety.
The short wheelbase and lack of suspension make it twitchier and bumpier on rough pavement, so this isn’t a bike you’ll want to bomb down gravel paths or jump curbs with.
And finally, at $1,649, it’s not exactly cheap for such a small package. In fact, it’s downright pricey. You’re paying for clever engineering and convenience rather than raw power or range – and in fairness, there’s not much else like it on the market. But if you’re one of those annoying people who only look at watts per dollar, then this isn’t for you. Instead, you should buy a hair dryer. At around $50 for a 1,500W blow dryer, you just can’t beat that watt-per-dollar deal.
Final thoughts
The JackRabbit OG2 Pro might not totally replace your main e-bike, especially if exercise is part of your goal. But it could easily become your favorite one if you’re just looking for a convenient and fun way to get around. It’s that rare product that nails the “grab-and-go” lifestyle – small enough to live indoors, light enough to carry anywhere, and fun enough to make every short trip an adventure.
It’s not the fastest, the most comfortable, or the most capable e-bike out there. But it’s one of the most joyful. And in a market full of oversized fat-tire behemoths that literally weigh 3x as much, this tiny electric oddball is a refreshing reminder that sometimes less really is more.
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Elon Musk recently walked back his impossible extremely ambitious robotaxi goals, shifting from a target of reaching “half the U.S. population by the end of 2025” to a more “modest” goal of launching in “eight to 10 U.S. metro areas” within the next two months.
Now, in a development that should surprise no one, a new report suggests that even this heavily scaled-back timeline is facing significant obstacles.
According to a report from The Information, Tesla is lagging on the most basic regulatory front. The company has reportedly not yet completed the necessary paperwork to begin offering robotaxi rides in Arizona and Nevada, two of the three additional states Musk has targeted for expansion by the end of 2025.
The third state, Florida, is expected to be an easier lift due to its looser regulations, which fits Tesla’s pattern of prioritizing optics over navigating real regulatory scrutiny.
Meanwhile, in Tesla’s original home state of California, the company is still testing its service with a human safety driver sitting in the driver’s seat. This is because its current permit only allows a human to “drive a traditional vehicle.” Therefore, the “robotaxi” service in California is simply a ride-hailing service with the Tesla drivers using “Supervised Full Self-Driving.”
To operate a true autonomous service, with or without a safety driver present, Tesla would need to apply for a separate permit—one that its chief rival, Alphabet’s Waymo, already possesses and uses to offer rides in San Francisco and Los Angeles. As we’ve noted previously, Tesla has tellingly not even applied for this autonomous vehicle permit, which would likely require it to disclose critical disengagement and safety data it is unwilling to make public.
These regulatory and bureaucratic slowdowns clash with the grand vision Musk is selling. The CEO has stated that the success of Robotaxi is “critical” to his plan to pivot Tesla into an “autonomous driving and humanoid robotics company.”
This vision is also directly tied to his unprecedented new compensation package, which shareholders are set to vote on next week. That package hinges on massive goals, including putting 1 million Robotaxis into service and lifting Tesla’s market capitalization to an astronomical $8.5 trillion.
For now, the robotaxi service continues to use a version of the Model Y. The purpose-built “Cybercab,” a two-seater vehicle with no steering wheel, isn’t planned for mass production until the second quarter of 2026.
Tesla threw cold water on that program too this week as it said that it might add a steering wheel to the vehicle, which would facilitate the regulatory approval.
Electrek’s Take
This is predictable, but still frustrating. We’ve been saying for years that the technology is only half the battle; it’s far from solved. The other half is the massive, state-by-state, and even city-by-city, regulatory grind.
On the technology front, we reported yesterday that Tesla’s Robotaxi crash rate is higher than Waymo’s, even with its safety monitors preventing an unknown number of additional potential accidents.
Tesla still has a lot of work to do to make the technology safe enough to remove its safety monitor without negatively affecting safety.
On the other front, it’s one thing for Musk to set an “Elon time” goal, but it’s another to seemingly ignore the basic bureaucratic legwork required to operate in new states. To hear that Tesla hasn’t even filed the paperwork in places like Arizona and Nevada is a significant failure. It suggests the bottleneck isn’t just performance.
This whole endeavor continues to look like a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors, prioritizing optics to justify a compensation package and stock valuation that are completely detached from the reality of the technology or the regulatory hurdles ahead.
In short, Tesla either doesn’t really believe it is ready to scale Robotaxi, unlike what it has been claiming to shareholders, or it doesn’t want to release critical data to regulators, which would suggest the same thing.
In the meantime, they will deploy ride-hailing services with drivers and call it “Robotaxi”, like they do in the Bay Area.
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Environment
The biggest takeaways from the Trump-Xi meeting — what the truce covers and what is still unclear
President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping reached a trade truce during a high-stakes meeting in South Korea on Thursday, de-escalating a dispute over rare earth elements that had threatened to push the world’s two largest economies into a full-blown trade war.
China agreed to pause for one year the sweeping export controls on rare earths announced on Oct. 9 that had touched off the dispute.
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that the rare earths agreement is a one year deal that will be “very routinely extended as time goes by.” The president said he plans to visit China in April and Xi will come to the U.S., either Palm Peach, Florida or Washington D.C., at a later date
“We have a deal,” Trump said. “Now, every year we’ll renegotiate the deal, but I think the deal will go on for a long time, long beyond the year. But all of the rare earth has been settled, and that’s for the world.”
Trump said he cut tariffs effective immediately on China related to fentanyl to 10% from 20%. This reduces the overall rate on Chinese goods to around 47%, the president told reporters. Trump had previously threatened the slap China with 100% tariffs on Nov. 1 over its rare earth controls.
The U.S. will postpone a rule announced on Sept. 29 that blacklisted majority-owned subsidiaries of Chinese companies on an entity list, according to a statement from China’s Ministry of Commerce.
The U.S. and China also agreed to suspend fees for one year on ships that dock in each other’s ports.
Did China win?
Beijing had surprised the White House with strict export controls on rare earths ahead of the meeting between Trump and Xi, exploiting its dominance of the global supply chain to gain leverage over Washington.
The U.S. is dependent on China for rare earths, which are used to produce magnets that are key inputs in weapons platforms, semiconductor manufacturing, electric vehicles and other applications.
Xi successfully used the rare earths export controls and a soybean embargo to force the U.S. to lower tariffs, Wolfe Research strategist Tobin Marcus told clients in a note.
The truce reached between the U.S. and China is not a comprehensive deal, said Nicholas Burns, former U.S. ambassador to China during the Biden administration.
“Where we are is an uneasy truce in a long, still simmering trade war,” Burns told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
Truce vague in key areas
It is not entirely clear what China has agreed to in key areas such as agriculture and energy purchases from the U.S.
Trump said Beijing has agreed to purchase large amounts of a soybeans, sorghum and other farm products. China will buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually over the next three years, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business in an interview.
But China’s Ministry of Commerce simply said the two sides agreed to expand agricultural trade without providing specifics.
Trump said China may buy a large amount of oil and gas from Alaska but a deal still has to be reached. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum will meet with Chinese officials to see if such an agreement can be worked out, Trump said.
Trump said he discussed the export of Nvidia chips with Xi and will speak with CEO Jensen Huang about it. But the discussions did not cover the most advanced Blackwell graphics processing units, the president said. It is up to China and Nvidia to reach a deal, he said.
“I said that’s really between you and Nvidia, but we’re sort of the arbitrator,” Trump said on Air Force One.
China’s Ministry of Commerce said Beijing will work with the U.S. to “resolve issues related to TikTok,” though no further detail was provided. Trump did not mention TikTok during his comments to reporters aboard Air Force One or in a Truth Social post about the truce with China.
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