TSLA drops 14% as investors see corruption being priced out of Tesla stock
Tesla stock dropped over 50 points today, primarily in response to a very public feud between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and convicted felon Donald Trump.
But, as we pointed out in November, this doesn’t have anything to do with company performance, and rather only reflects a change in the market’s expectation of potential benefit to Tesla from government corruption.
Tesla stock has had a wild few months, with big rises and falls that has had little to do with company performance (which is, perhaps, nothing new for the stock, which has always been a speculative vehicle).
Much of the movement of TSLA has been centered around CEO Elon Musk’s relationship with Donald Trump.
Musk very publicly supported Mr. Trump’s run for president, giving hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes to Mr. Trump’s campaign, despite the latter’s openly anti-EV positions (and despite that there exists a clear legal remedy stopping insurrectionists from holding office in the US).
Musk even went on to spew climate denying nonsense alongside Mr. Trump during the campaign, and later said nothing when Mr. Trump opposed the Paris Agreement, even though he previously opposed a similar move in 2017.
This led to Musk being invited into an advisory role, which was dubbed the Department of Government Efficiency despite it not being a real government department, and having a supposed mission redundant with the already-existing Government Accountability Office.
And in the immediate aftermath of the election, TSLA stock rose swiftly, purely because of expectations of corruption. But after that swift rise, it gradually fell as the reality of economy-destroying tariffs, anti-EV legislation, and Tesla’s brand perception problem due to Musk’s actions all became apparent. Despite Musk’s position as a top republican party donor, the party still seems more interested in catering to its traditional base in the fossil fuel industry.
Despite some recovery from that big post election rise-and-drop, TSLA took another big hit today, and it’s all due to the current rift forming between these two egomaniacs.
A rift over spending becomes something greater
During his tenure in his advisory position, Musk claims to have saved the government hundreds of billions of dollars, but independent accounting has shown that it is in fact likely to increase the deficit, not decrease it.
Nevertheless, it seems like Musk was fooled into believing his own propaganda, and into thinking that deficit reduction was ever a goal of Mr. Trump, despite that he previously oversaw the highest nominal deficit of any person in the history of the United States.
At least, he believed that until now. In the last few days, after leaving his advisory position, Musk has loudly opposed the new republican budget bill, which he now correctly points out will add trillions of dollars to the US deficit (as any lucid person might have predicted from the party of waste).
The criticism came to a head today, with Musk going through one of his patented tweetstorms, acting more like a jilted lover than a CEO in charge of a company that has many people’s retirement invested into it.
There’s been a lot of back and forth, but over the course of the day, Musk has posted many statements about how dangerous the budget bill will be for the US debt and deficit.
Mr. Trump responded, stating that Musk should have known these things before now, but that Musk is only acting this way because he cut the “EV mandate.”
To be clear, the bill in question does not cut any EV mandate, as there was never an EV mandate to begin with, but it does cut EV tax credits which Tesla has gained more benefit from than any other company, though Tesla lobbied in support of these cuts. The bill does not cut support for oil and gas companies, which are orders of magnitude higher than the support EV companies get.
In response to this, Musk claimed that he personally swung the election in favor of the republicans, and that Mr. Trump is showing “ingratitude” by not recognizing this fact.
Mr. Trump responded by suggesting that the government could save money by terminating all of the subsidies and contracts for services with Musk’s various companies. To this, Musk said that he would immediately decommission the Dragon capsule, which has been the main spacecraft used by NASA to service the International Space Station.
Then, Musk went on to state that a recession will happen in the second half of this year due to Mr. Trump’s position on tariffs, and also to accuse Mr. Trump of being on Jeffrey Epstein’s list (which is not the first time Musk has publicly accused someone of pedophilia, though it is the first time he’s said that about someone who he claimed to “love as much as any straight man can,” and knowingly worked alongside), and to agree with a call for his impeachment.
The market sees this as a negative sign
The public rift seems to have shaken the stock market out of its stupor, as Tesla went down more than 50 points since the start of today.
While nothing significant has changed for Tesla’s business today – it’s still suffering from falling sales in an otherwise rising market, and it still has a bad CEO – what has changed is the possibility of the company benefitting from corruption.
As I stated during TSLA’s meteoric post-election rise, the stock price was merely a reflection of the market’s expectation that Mr. Trump, a person with an enormous history of corruption, would thank Musk for his election participation by rewarding him and his companies. Nobody quite knew how that might happen, but everyone expected that it would.
I claimed, at the time, that this was unlikely to turn out the way the market thought it would, because the republicans would likely continue to favor fossil fuels, and that regulatory blockages were not the thing holding Tesla back from its automation goals.
Musk did attempt to use the government in corrupt ways, as detailed this week in a report by Senator Warren, and as we all remember from the White House Auto Mall infomercial (remember, folks, “everything’s computer!“).
But none of that was ever going to justify the addition of hundreds of billions of dollars to Tesla’s market cap.
The market seems to be realizing that more today, as over $100 billion has been shaved off of Tesla’s market cap since the start of the feud. That’s quite a lot of priced-in expected benefit that has been wiped away, all by a single tweetstorm.
Fight shows how vulnerable Tesla is to Musk’s whims
While it’s all well and good to see the worst two people you know fighting each other, and to finally see the inevitable fallout between two narcissists who frankly held out much longer than any reasonable person thought they would, this fight does show the significant vulnerability that Tesla has to the whims of a CEO who has shown poor ability to control his impulses in the past.
The last year or more has been highlighted by several poor business decisions by Musk, not the least of which is his support of one of the larger anti-EV entities on the planet right now.
But beyond the politics, his leadership has still been erratic for the company. Not only has he paid more attention to the many other companies he runs, when he has turned his attention to Tesla, it hasn’t been positive for the company.
After mostly ignoring Tesla for a few years, he went through a flurry of activity in the run-up to last year’s shareholder advisory vote on his compensation package. This flurry involved firing everyone including important leadership and successful teams, canceling an all-important affordable car project (and lying about it) and holding Tesla’s AI projects hostage while shifting both resources and staff from Tesla to his private AI company, even as he claims that AI is the future of Tesla.
Now, TSLA investors have another thing to worry about – whether Musk will continue to try to “poke the bear” and get more government opposition to his company, even as he continues to make himself distasteful globally (by, for example, showing support for German neo-Nazis, agreeing with a defense of Hitler’s actions in the Holocaust, or his many other white supremacist statements). These actions have driven protests against the company, embarrassed owners and pushed many customers away – and those protesters aren’t planning on stopping.
While some may cheer this new rift that has formed between Musk and one of the environment’s greatest enemies, Donald Trump, it seems unlikely that Musk’s erratic behavior will be beneficial for Tesla the company in the long run.
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With the federal EV incentive set to expire at the end of September, Ford is urging its dealers to prepare for a rush of buyers.
Ford warns dealers of upcoming EV rush
Like most automakers, Ford is preparing for a shakeup under the Trump Administration. After the “One Big Beautiful Bill” was signed into law on July 4, the $7,500 and $4,000 tax credit for new and used EVs will no longer be available after September 30.
In a memo sent to dealers this week, Ford warned, “demand is expected to increase as the deadline approaches for eligible vehicles.”
The letter (via CarsDirect) confirmed that the EV tax credit “will no longer be available for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025.”
Ford blamed Trump’s new bill for the expected rush of EV buyers ahead of the incentive deadline. Although the Mustang Mach-E doesn’t qualify for the credit, since it’s built in Mexico, Ford is passing it on through a leasing loophole. While it’s still available, the F-150 Lightning does qualify for the credit when purchased or leased.
Last week, Ford launched its new “Zero, Zero, Zero” summer sales promo, offering a $0 down payment, 0% interest for 48 months, and zero payments for the first 90 days on most Ford and Lincoln vehicles.
The new campaign replaces the employee pricing for all campaign, which ran through the first half of the year. Despite outpacing the industry with overall sales rising 14% in Q2, Ford’s EV sales fell by nearly a third.
Ford spokesperson Martin Gunsberg told Electrek that electric vehicle sales were lower due to the Mustang Mach-E recall and the transition to the 2025 model year. “Our dealers can’t sell what they don’t have,” Gunsberg said.
Although the Mach-E doesn’t qualify for the credit when purchased, it’s still one of the best EV lease deals available right now, starting at $395 per month. The offer is for 36 months with no down payment required.
Ford isn’t the only one preparing for big changes over the next few months. Honda extended its ultra-low lease offer on the Prologue until the end of September. Hyundai and Kia are slashing prices with generous discounts ahead of the deadline. The 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 might be the best EV deal at just $179 per month right now.
Looking to snag the savings while they are still available? You can use our links below to find deals on top-selling electric vehicles in your area.
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Environment
Tesla engineer admits Tesla didn’t maintain Autopilot crash records amid trial over fatal crash
A Tesla engineer admitted in court that Tesla didn’t maintain Autopilot crash records before 2018, 3 years after launching the ADAS system, in a trial over the death of a bystander in a crash involving Autopilot.
Tesla is currently on trial in Miami over a crash involving a 2019 Tesla Model S that was operating on Autopilot.
The case attempts to place some responsibility on Tesla for creating complacency with drivers, who were led to believe Autopilot could do more than it actually could.
George McGee was driving his Model S on Autopilot in Key Largo in April 2019 when he dropped his phone and looked down to pick it up when the car blew past a stop sign at a T intersection, and crashed into a parked Chevrolet Tahoe.
22-year-old Naibel Benavides Leon and her boyfriend Dillon Angulo were standing next to the parked Tahoe. Benavides died and Angulo was seriously injured.
The police charged McGee with reckless driving, but the families of the victims sued both McGee and Tesla. McGee settled with the plaintiffs, but Tesla hasn’t.
The automaker has been sued many times over fatal crashes related to its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving systems. Recently, Tesla settled a few of those lawsuits, but this one is the first to make it to trial.
The plaintiffs allege that Tesla’s communications regarding Autopilot have led drivers, such as McGee, to become complacent and use Autopilot in a manner that led to this crash. They also claim that Tesla misrepresented the safety of Autopilot and failed to deploy proper driver monitoring to ensure its safe use.
The trial started on Monday and on Thursday, the jury heard testimony from Tesla software engineer Akshay Phatak who said that Tesla didn’t even complete records of Autopilot crashes before March 2018 (via Law360):
At the end of the first day of testimony, jurors watched part of the videotaped deposition of Tesla software engineer Akshay Phatak in which he said Tesla did not maintain records before March 2018 for evaluating whether it was safer to operate Tesla vehicles with the autopilot engaged or shut off.
When asked if Tesla maintained records or data before 2018 that kept track of the number of crashes that occurred per vehicle mile driven with the autopilot engaged, he replied simply, “No.”
That’s despite Tesla launching Autopilot almost 3 years prior. The jury will hear more of Phatak’s deposition today after Tesla attempted to keep it out of court over claims that it contains “sensitive trade secrets.”
Plaintiffs also challenged Tesla’s Autopilot safety report. We previously highlighted how Tesla suddenly stopped reporting the statistics and only started again a year later, while updating older data.
Dr. Mendel Singer testified on Tuesday and highlighted the discrepancy:
He noted that Tesla offered corrections to the vehicle safety report in January 2023 after finding some errors and miscounts. The crash data for when the autopilot was on stayed about the same, but the crash rate for when the autopilot was off went up by about 50% in the updated report, he said.
Mary Cummings, a professor and director of the Autonomy and Robotics Center at George Mason University and a longtime critic of Tesla’s self-driving efforts, is expected to testify today.
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General Motors and Redwood Materials are joining forces to take EV battery tech beyond the road and onto the grid. The two companies just signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding that sets the stage for turning both new and second-life GM batteries into energy storage systems to support the US’s rising electricity demand.
The collaboration aims to help the grid keep up with the surge in power-hungry applications, from AI data centers to electrified transport and industry.
“The market for grid-scale batteries and backup power isn’t just expanding, it’s becoming essential infrastructure,” said Kurt Kelty, GM’s VP of batteries, propulsion, and sustainability. “Electricity demand is climbing, and it’s only going to accelerate… GM batteries can play an integral role.”
Redwood launched a new venture in June called Redwood Energy that repurposes both new and used EV battery packs into fast and cost-effective energy storage systems. Today’s announcement allows Redwood to use second-life batteries from GM EVs and new GM battery modules to create US-built energy storage systems.
This isn’t just a future plan – it’s already happening. GM’s repurposed EV batteries are currently powering the biggest second-life battery project in the world. Located in Sparks, Nevada, Redwood’s 12MW/63MWh installation is also the largest microgrid in North America and supports Crusoe, an AI infrastructure company.
“Electricity demand is accelerating at an unprecedented pace,” said JB Straubel, Redwood’s founder and CEO. “Both GM’s second-life EV batteries and new batteries can be deployed in Redwood’s energy storage systems, delivering fast, flexible power solutions.”
And the timing couldn’t be better. AI data centers alone are expected to triple their share of US electricity use, from 4.4% in 2023 to 12% by 2028. That’s driving the urgent need for scalable, domestic energy storage.
GM and Redwood Materials say they’ll share more details on their plans later this year.
Read more: Arizona brings a huge grid battery online ahead of peak demand
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