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With declining technology costs and increasing renewable deployment, energy storage is poised to be a valuable resource on future power grids — but what is the total market potential for storage technologies, and what are the key drivers of cost-optimal deployment?

In the latest report from the Storage Futures Study (SFS), Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector, NREL analysts Will Frazier, Wesley Cole, Paul Denholm, Scott Machen, and Nate Blair, describe significant market potential for utility-scale diurnal storage (up to 12 hours) in the U.S. power system through 2050. They found storage adds the most value to the grid and deployment increases when the power system allows storage to simultaneously provide multiple grid services and when there is greater solar photovoltaic (PV) penetration.

“We find significant market potential for diurnal energy storage across a variety of modeled scenarios, mostly occurring by 2030,” said Will Frazier, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) analyst and lead author of the report. “To realize cost-optimal storage deployment, the power system will need to allow storage to provide capacity and energy time-shifting grid services.”

The SFS — led by NREL and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Energy Storage Grand Challenge — is a multiyear research project to explore how advancing energy storage technologies could impact the deployment of utility-scale storage and adoption of distributed storage, including impacts to future power system infrastructure investment and operations.

Expanded Capabilities to Model Storage Potential

For this work, researchers added new capabilities to NREL’s Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to accurately represent the value of diurnal battery energy storage when it is allowed to provide grid services — an inherently complex modeling challenge. Cost and performance metrics focus on Li-ion batteries because the technology has more market maturity than other emerging technologies. Because the value of storage depends greatly on timing, ReEDS simulated system operations every hour.

NREL researchers used ReEDS to model two sets of scenarios — one that allows storage to provide multiple grid services and one that restricts the services that storage can provide. All the scenarios use different cost and performance assumptions for storage, wind, solar PV, and natural gas to determine the key drivers of energy storage deployment.

Installed Storage Capacity Could Increase Five-Fold by 2050

Across all scenarios in the study, utility-scale diurnal energy storage deployment grows significantly through 2050, totaling over 125 gigawatts of installed capacity in the modest cost and performance assumptions — a more than five-fold increase from today’s total. Depending on cost and other variables, deployment could total as much as 680 gigawatts by 2050.

Chart courtesy of NREL — grid-scale U.S. storage capacity could grow five-fold by 2050.

Chart courtesy of NREL — grid-scale U.S. storage capacity could grow five-fold by 2050.

“These are game-changing numbers,” Frazier said. “Today we have 23 gigawatts of storage capacity, all of which is pumped-hydro.”

Initially, the new storage deployment is mostly shorter duration (up to 4 hours) and then progresses to longer durations (up to 12 hours) as deployment increases, mostly because longer-duration storage is currently more expensive. In 2030, annual deployment of battery storage ranges from 1 to 30 gigawatts across the scenarios. By 2050, annual deployment ranges from 7 to 77 gigawatts.

System Flexibility Key to Storage Deployment

To understand what could drive future grid-scale storage deployment, NREL modeled the techno-economic potential of storage when it is allowed to independently provide three grid services: capacity, energy time-shifting, and operating reserves.

  • Blue — Energy Time-Shifting & Operating Reserves (No Firm Capacity From Storage)
  • Black — Firm Capacity & Energy Time-Shifting (No Operating Reserves From Storage)
  • Green — Firm Capacity & Operating Reserves (No Energy Time-Shifting From Storage)

NREL found not allowing storage to provide firm capacity impacts future deployment the most, although not allowing firm capacity or energy time-shifting services can also substantially decrease potential deployment. Operating reserves, on the hand, do not drive the deployment of storage within the study because they find limited overall market potential for this service.

Storage and Solar Symbiosis

Multiple NREL studies have pointed to the symbiotic nature of solar and storage, and this study reinforces that relationship. More PV generation makes peak demand periods shorter and decreases how much energy capacity is needed from storage — thereby increasing the value of storage capacity and effectively decreasing the cost of storage by allowing shorter-duration batteries to be a competitive source of peaking capacity. NREL found over time the value of energy storage in providing peaking capacity increases as load grows and existing generators retire.

Solar PV generation also has a strong relationship with time-shifting services. More PV generation creates more volatile energy price profiles, increasing the potential of storage energy time-shifting. Like peaking capacity, the value of energy time-shifting grows over time with increased PV penetration.

Next Up in the Storage Futures Study

The SFS will continue to explore topics from the foundational report that outlines a visionary framework for the possible evolution of the stationary energy storage industry — and the power system as a whole.

The next report in the series will assess customer adoption potential of distributed diurnal storage for several future scenarios. The study will also include the larger impacts of storage deployment on power system evolution and operations.

Visit the Storage Futures Study page for more information about the broader study, and learn more about NREL’s energy analysis research.

Learn More in June 22 Webinar

Join a webinar from 9 to 10 a.m. MT on Tuesday, June 22, to learn more about SFS results with Will Frazier and Nate Blair and hear from SFS analyst Paul Denholm on the visionary framework for the possible evolution of the stationary energy storage industry, outlined in the first report in the series. Register to attend.

Article courtesy of NREL, the U.S. Department of Energy.

Image courtesy of 8minute Solar Energy, plus Energy storage project.


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The Lexus LFA is back, and this time it’s 100% electric

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The Lexus LFA is back, and this time it's 100% electric

Lexus is bringing the sports car back, but this time the LFA will be fully electric and will be developed alongside the Toyota GR GT and GR GT3. Here’s our first look at the EV sports car.

Meet the electric Lexus LFA Concept

The LFA is making a comeback as a low-slung, fully electric supercar. Lexus unveiled the new LFA Concept on Friday, calling it a next-generation battery-electric (BEV) sports car.

Lexus said the LFA name “embodies the technologies that engineers of its time should preserve,” adding it’s “not bound to vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.”

The electric LFA is being developed alongside the Toyota GR GT and GR GT3 race cars. Although it will share core technology and other components, including the GR GT’s all-aluminum frame, the new LFA will arrive with a unique design and advanced interior thanks to its electric powertrain.

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Inside, the EV sports car features a yoke-style steering wheel, first showcased on the RZ electric SUV. The minimalist design is intended to create “a uniquely immersive environment,” according to Lexus.

At 184.6″ long, 80.3″ wide, and 47″ tall with a wheelbase of 107.3″, the electric Lexus LFA concept is about the size of many modern-day supercars, including the Aston Martin DB12 and Ferrari Roma.

The LFA EV will be centered on three key elements, shared with the GR GT, including a low center of gravity, a light but sturdy frame, and optimized aerodynamics.

Lexus has yet to reveal full details, aside from confirming the new LFA will be fully electric. With Toyota claiming it plans to launch its first solid-state battery in a high-performance vehicle by 2027, will the Lexus LFA be the one to debut it? We will find out more shortly.

While the new Lexus LFA is surprisingly an EV, Toyota is sticking to its roots with the GR GT, which will be equipped with a hybrid system that still uses a 4.0-liter V8 twin-turbo engine and a single electric motor.

Toyota announced similar plans to continue launching gas-powered vehicles under its new ultra-luxury Century brand.

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Tesla launches ‘Standard’ Model 3/Y in Europe with aggressive pricing to stop bleeding sales

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Tesla launches 'Standard' Model 3/Y in Europe with aggressive pricing to stop bleeding sales

Tesla has officially launched new “Standard” trims for both the Model 3 and Model Y in Europe after launching them in North America. The automaker is aggressively positioning these stripped-down models to undercut competitors and arrest a painful sales slump in the region, with the Model 3 now starting at an impressive €36,990 in Germany.

As we reported recently, Tesla is facing a tough quarter in Europe. Registration data from November showed sales down 12.3% year-over-year, but the reality is even starker: if you exclude Norway, which is soaring due to incentives going away at the end of the year, Tesla’s sales in the rest of Europe have plummeted by over 36%.  

To counter this, Tesla updated its online configurator today with these new entry-level options that significantly lower the barrier to entry, albeit with some notable compromises in features.  

The Model 3 Standard: breaking the €37k barrier

The new Model 3 Standard is priced at €36,990 in Germany, France, and Italy. This is a massive psychological breach of the €37,000 mark, putting it well within swinging distance of mass-market ICE vehicles and undercutting key electric rivals.  

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In the Nordic markets, the pricing is equally aggressive:

  • Norway: NOK 330,056  
  • Sweden: SEK 449,990  

Despite the lower price, the specs remain impressive. The Model 3 Standard is rated at 534 km (332 miles) of WLTP range. It achieves 0 to 100 km/h (62 mph) in 6.2 seconds.

Priced significantly lower than the next cheapest Model 3, like in North America, the new Model 3 Standard is a much better offer than the Model Y Standard,

The Model Y Standard: a tougher sell

The Model Y also gets the “Standard” treatment. It is now listed at €39,990 in the main European markets.

Tesla lists the Model Y Standard with the same 534 km WLTP range as the Model 3 Standard.

Like in North America, the proposition here is not as attractive as with the Model 3 Standard. It is closer in price to the ‘Premium’ version and, on top of losing almost 100 km of range, the Standard version comes with many fewer features.

De-contenting: What do you lose?

To hit these price points, Tesla had to cut costs. We are seeing a new level of “de-contenting” that is new for the brand. Tesla has always been known to cut costs aggressively and remove features it deemed not useful, but in this case, it cut things close to the bone.

Here is what is gone compared to the Premium/Long Range trims:

  • Seats: The full vegan leather is replaced by “partially textile seats”.  
  • Rear Screen: The 8-inch rear display introduced with the Highland refresh has been removed.  
  • Comfort: Heated rear seats are no longer included.  
  • Audio: The system is downgraded to 7 speakers, removing the subwoofer and amplifiers.  
  • Wheels: The alloy wheels are gone, replaced by steel wheels with plastic aero covers.  

That’s on top of the more obvious exterior changes, such as removing the light bars, updating the front end, and losing the panoramic roof.

The Competition

This move puts Tesla in a fiercely competitive position against the influx of Chinese EVs and legacy European automakers.

  • Volkswagen: The VW ID.3 Pure has recently seen price cuts bringing it to around €29,760 in Germany with bonuses, but the Model 3 offers significantly more range and space. The ID.4 Pure, a direct Model Y competitor, sits around €40,335 , making the Model Y Standard slightly cheaper and arguably better specced in terms of software and charging network.  
  • BYD: The Chinese auto giant is Tesla’s main headache right now. The BYD Atto 3 is priced at €37,990 in Germany. The Model 3 Standard now undercuts it by €1,000, while the Model Y is only €2,000 more expensive for a much larger vehicle.  
  • Volvo: The successful EX30 starts around €36,000–€39,000 depending on the market. Tesla could threaten the higher end of the demand for this one.

As you can see, there’s some room for Tesla to work.

Electrek’s Take

There is no denying that Tesla is hurting in Europe. We always said that this was due to a combination of a stale lineup facing increased competition and what we’ve called “brand toxicity” stemming from Elon Musk’s political activism.

I’m actually a fan of the “Standard”/ de-contenting idea in the sense that it offers more options. Not everyone needs a rear screen or heated seats in the back.

However, I do worry about the value proposition, especially with the Model Y. The Model 3 makes a lot more sense to me.

I think this should help Tesla in Europe. It could stop the bleeding and help Tesla form a bottom in Europe.

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Meet the Kia Vision Meta Turismo: Could this be the EV8? [Images]

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Meet the Kia Vision Meta Turismo: Could this be the EV8? [Images]

Kia is celebrating its 80th birthday with a bang. The new Kia Vision Turismo concept offers a glimpse of what will likely arrive as the EV8. Here’s our first look at it.

The Vision Meta Turismo is more than a concept car. It’s “Kia’s vision for a new era of mobility,” and what will likely become the EV8.

Kia unveiled the futuristic concept car during an event in Korea on Friday, celebrating the brand’s 80th anniversary.

Several high-profile executives were in attendance, including Hyundai Motor Group executive chair Euisun Chung and Kia’s president and CEO, Ho Sung Song.

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The Vision Meta Turismo concept pays homage to the 1960s era of long-distance touring, blended with Kia’s bold “Opposites United” design theme showcased on its latest electric vehicles, such as the new EV4, EV5, and EV6.

Although details are still pretty slim at this point, the concept car is expected to fill the EV7 or EV8 spot when it arrives in production form.

Kia-Vision-Meta-Turismo
The Kia Vision Meta Turismo concept (Source: Kia)

The low-riding GT looks like an electric successor to the Stinger, similar to the Polestar 5, with a sporty silhouette and aggressive front end.

Inside, the Kia Vision Meta Turismo offers a “lounge-inspired interior” with futuristic digital tech, unique design elements, and a spacious layout.

Kia-Vision-Meta-Turismo
The interior of the Kia Vision Meta Turismo concept (Source: Kia)

The yoke-style steering wheel “reimagines the next-generation intuitive driving interface,” Kia said. It’s equipped with three different digital modes: Speedster, Dreamer, and Gamer, which use an AR Head-Up Display (HUD) to create an immersive, personalized driving experience.

Kia-Vision-Meta-Turismo
The interior of the Kia Vision Meta Turismo concept (Source: Kia)

Featuring smart glass that’s integrated into the vehicle, the AR HUD projects graphics in front of the driver “as if they are floating above the road in three dimensions.”

Given Kia has already confirmed plans to cover nearly all segments, from the EV1 to the EV9, the concept is expected to be named either the EV7 or EV8 when it launches.

Kia-Vision-Meta-Turismo
The Kia Vision Meta Turismo concept (Source: Kia)

A flagship EV8 GT could be a lower-cost rival to the Tesla Model S or Porsche Taycan, opening a new market for Kia.

Kia said it will reveal full details about the concept car in the near future, so check back soon. We’ll keep you updated with the latest.

What do you think of Kia’s sporty concept car? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

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