Grid-Scale U.S. Energy Storage Capacity Could Grow Five-Fold By 2050
With declining technology costs and increasing renewable deployment, energy storage is poised to be a valuable resource on future power grids — but what is the total market potential for storage technologies, and what are the key drivers of cost-optimal deployment?
In the latest report from the Storage Futures Study (SFS), Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector, NREL analysts Will Frazier, Wesley Cole, Paul Denholm, Scott Machen, and Nate Blair, describe significant market potential for utility-scale diurnal storage (up to 12 hours) in the U.S. power system through 2050. They found storage adds the most value to the grid and deployment increases when the power system allows storage to simultaneously provide multiple grid services and when there is greater solar photovoltaic (PV) penetration.
“We find significant market potential for diurnal energy storage across a variety of modeled scenarios, mostly occurring by 2030,” said Will Frazier, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) analyst and lead author of the report. “To realize cost-optimal storage deployment, the power system will need to allow storage to provide capacity and energy time-shifting grid services.”
The SFS — led by NREL and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Energy Storage Grand Challenge — is a multiyear research project to explore how advancing energy storage technologies could impact the deployment of utility-scale storage and adoption of distributed storage, including impacts to future power system infrastructure investment and operations.
Expanded Capabilities to Model Storage Potential
For this work, researchers added new capabilities to NREL’s Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to accurately represent the value of diurnal battery energy storage when it is allowed to provide grid services — an inherently complex modeling challenge. Cost and performance metrics focus on Li-ion batteries because the technology has more market maturity than other emerging technologies. Because the value of storage depends greatly on timing, ReEDS simulated system operations every hour.
NREL researchers used ReEDS to model two sets of scenarios — one that allows storage to provide multiple grid services and one that restricts the services that storage can provide. All the scenarios use different cost and performance assumptions for storage, wind, solar PV, and natural gas to determine the key drivers of energy storage deployment.
Installed Storage Capacity Could Increase Five-Fold by 2050
Across all scenarios in the study, utility-scale diurnal energy storage deployment grows significantly through 2050, totaling over 125 gigawatts of installed capacity in the modest cost and performance assumptions — a more than five-fold increase from today’s total. Depending on cost and other variables, deployment could total as much as 680 gigawatts by 2050.
Chart courtesy of NREL — grid-scale U.S. storage capacity could grow five-fold by 2050.
Chart courtesy of NREL — grid-scale U.S. storage capacity could grow five-fold by 2050.
“These are game-changing numbers,” Frazier said. “Today we have 23 gigawatts of storage capacity, all of which is pumped-hydro.”
Initially, the new storage deployment is mostly shorter duration (up to 4 hours) and then progresses to longer durations (up to 12 hours) as deployment increases, mostly because longer-duration storage is currently more expensive. In 2030, annual deployment of battery storage ranges from 1 to 30 gigawatts across the scenarios. By 2050, annual deployment ranges from 7 to 77 gigawatts.
System Flexibility Key to Storage Deployment
To understand what could drive future grid-scale storage deployment, NREL modeled the techno-economic potential of storage when it is allowed to independently provide three grid services: capacity, energy time-shifting, and operating reserves.
- Blue — Energy Time-Shifting & Operating Reserves (No Firm Capacity From Storage)
- Black — Firm Capacity & Energy Time-Shifting (No Operating Reserves From Storage)
- Green — Firm Capacity & Operating Reserves (No Energy Time-Shifting From Storage)
NREL found not allowing storage to provide firm capacity impacts future deployment the most, although not allowing firm capacity or energy time-shifting services can also substantially decrease potential deployment. Operating reserves, on the hand, do not drive the deployment of storage within the study because they find limited overall market potential for this service.
Storage and Solar Symbiosis
Multiple NREL studies have pointed to the symbiotic nature of solar and storage, and this study reinforces that relationship. More PV generation makes peak demand periods shorter and decreases how much energy capacity is needed from storage — thereby increasing the value of storage capacity and effectively decreasing the cost of storage by allowing shorter-duration batteries to be a competitive source of peaking capacity. NREL found over time the value of energy storage in providing peaking capacity increases as load grows and existing generators retire.
Solar PV generation also has a strong relationship with time-shifting services. More PV generation creates more volatile energy price profiles, increasing the potential of storage energy time-shifting. Like peaking capacity, the value of energy time-shifting grows over time with increased PV penetration.
Next Up in the Storage Futures Study
The SFS will continue to explore topics from the foundational report that outlines a visionary framework for the possible evolution of the stationary energy storage industry — and the power system as a whole.
The next report in the series will assess customer adoption potential of distributed diurnal storage for several future scenarios. The study will also include the larger impacts of storage deployment on power system evolution and operations.
Visit the Storage Futures Study page for more information about the broader study, and learn more about NREL’s energy analysis research.
Learn More in June 22 Webinar
Join a webinar from 9 to 10 a.m. MT on Tuesday, June 22, to learn more about SFS results with Will Frazier and Nate Blair and hear from SFS analyst Paul Denholm on the visionary framework for the possible evolution of the stationary energy storage industry, outlined in the first report in the series. Register to attend.
Article courtesy of NREL, the U.S. Department of Energy.
Image courtesy of 8minute Solar Energy, plus Energy storage project.
Remember HiPhi, the ultra-futuristic EV brand led by Human Horizons? It’s been over a year since the company went on a six-month hiatus after failing to find additional funding, but it has reportedly found a savior in a Lebanese investor called EV Electra. EV Electra is taking over a majority stake and plans to resume vehicle development and production in China immediately.
HiPhi was a radical EV marque founded by Chinese startup Human Horizons over five years ago. The startup wowed us early on with a production-ready version of its flagship model, the HiPhi Z GT, complete with automatic suicide doors and a robotic touchscreen that moves independently.
The Z was joined by two robot-centric EV models, the HiPhi X “Super SUV” and the HiPhi Y “LuxTech SUV,” The Z and X EVs were actually certified for sale in Europe while Human Horizons teased a fourth model – a carbon fiber hypercar called the HiPhi A.
In early 2024, HiPhi showed its EV models weren’t just about robotic arms and futuristic designs, but could actually perform. The HiPhi Z shone during a winter range test in total distance traveled on a single charge and had the lowest range loss compared to what its makers advertised.
Shortly thereafter, however, things went dark. During Chinese New Year, HiPhi announced a six-month shutdown while it searched for more funding. Human Horizons would fail in its search, resulting in the layoffs of most of its staff. That was over a year ago, but the lights at HiPhi’s Chinese manufacturing facility look like they’re about to be turned back on by a foreign financial backer with a cloudy history of its own.
EV Electra already has HiPhi models on its website
As reported by local Chinese media outlet 21jingi, multiple independent sources have stated that HiPhi has received an investment of $100 million from EV Electra, a Lebanese company founded in 2017 by Jihad Mohammad, claiming on its official website to be “the first electric car manufacturer in Lebanon and the Arab world.”
The reports appear accurate, as HiPhi’s three production models now appear on EV Electra’s website (pictured above). According to independent sources, EV Electra intends to help HiPhi maintain its previous production capacity of 150,000 units per year at its facility in Yancheng, Jiangsu province, China.
Furthermore, that facility has reportedly already begun the necessary environmental assessment to resume EV production. Former HiPhi employees who did not sign a voluntary resignation agreement are reportedly being invited back to the company, but they are expected to see a 20% pay cut.
As of May 2022, Jihad Mohammad is the legal representative for HiPhi. EV Electra Ltd. owns 69.8% of the brand, while Human Horizons maintains the remaining 30.2%.
EV Electra’s website is quite confusing as it states it has a presence in Canada, Italy, Germany, Turkey, and China, yet its locations page lists footprints in Montreal, Lebanon, and Sweden. In 2023, Swedish media accused EV Electra of passing images of other OEMs’ vehicles off as its own, including the Skywell ET5, the K-1 Attack Rise, and SP:01 from Detroit Electric.
Per its website, EV Electra currently offers four very different models, which are built in Italy, specifically for Lebanon, I believe? This company is unique and confusing, to say the least. Hopefully, HiPhi has found a savior in EV Electra in a deal that works out for both parties. I’m not optimistic at this point.
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In a “watershed moment,” BYD outsold Tesla in Europe after EV registrations surged over 350% in April. With its top-selling electric car launching this week, this could be just the start.
BYD expands in Europe as EV registrations rise in April
After crushing the competition in China, BYD is now becoming a global phenomenon. Last month, it outsold Tesla for the first time in Europe as several new EV models hit the market.
According to new data from Jato Dynamics, BYD’s registrations in Europe increased by 359% in April compared to last year.
Although those numbers include EV and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models, even if you look at purely electric registrations, it’s clear that BYD is quickly outpacing the competition.
BYD registered 7,231 EV models in Europe last month, an increase of 169% compared to April 2024. On the other hand, Tesla registered 7,165 EVs in April, down 49% from last year.
“Although the difference between the two brands’ monthly sales totals may be small, the implications are enormous,” Felipe Munoz, Global Analyst at JATO Dynamics, explained. Munoz called it “a watershed moment for Europe’s car market.”
BYD officially began selling vehicles in Europe in late 2022, while Tesla has led the European electric vehicle market for years.
Last month, the top registered EVs in Europe included the Skoda Elroq (1), Volkswagen’s ID.3 (2), ID.7 (3), ID.4 (4), and the Kia EV3 (5).
Tesla’s Model Y was the ninth most registered EV in April, with 4,495 registrations, down 53% from last year. The Model 3 came in at number 24, with 2,604 registrations, down 41%. No BYD models placed in the top 25.
Just yesterday, BYD launched what could be its biggest hit so far in Europe, the Dolphin Surf. The Dolphin Surf is the European version of BYD’s best-selling EV, the Seagull, which is sold for under $10,000 in China.
The compact electric city car starts at 19,990 euros ($22,700), undercutting top-sellers including the VW ID.3, which starts at around 30,000 euros ($34,000).
The Dolphin Surf is the latest to join BYD’s rapidly expanding European EV lineup, which now includes a full lineup of premium models (Denzda), ultra-luxury (Yangwang), SUVs, sedans, and entry-level vehicles.
Electrek’s Take
To be fair, Tesla is still ahead of BYD in Europe by a wide margin through the first four months of 2025. However, BYD will likely see more demand with new vehicles rolling out throughout the year.
S&P Global Mobility expects BYD to more than double its sales in Europe in 2025 to around 186,000 units. By the end of the decade, BYD’s volume in Europe could reach around 400,000.
While Tesla faces slower sales over CEO Elon Musk’s political stunts and support for US President Donald Trump, BYD is taking advantage. And it’s not just in Europe.
Earlier this month, BYD had its best sales week of the year in China, with nearly 68,000 registrations from May 5 to May 11. Tesla had just over 3,000 registrations during the same week.
Will BYD continue gaining ground on Tesla and other global automakers with new vehicles rolling out? Let us know your thoughts below.
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