Grid-Scale U.S. Energy Storage Capacity Could Grow Five-Fold By 2050
With declining technology costs and increasing renewable deployment, energy storage is poised to be a valuable resource on future power grids — but what is the total market potential for storage technologies, and what are the key drivers of cost-optimal deployment?
In the latest report from the Storage Futures Study (SFS), Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector, NREL analysts Will Frazier, Wesley Cole, Paul Denholm, Scott Machen, and Nate Blair, describe significant market potential for utility-scale diurnal storage (up to 12 hours) in the U.S. power system through 2050. They found storage adds the most value to the grid and deployment increases when the power system allows storage to simultaneously provide multiple grid services and when there is greater solar photovoltaic (PV) penetration.
“We find significant market potential for diurnal energy storage across a variety of modeled scenarios, mostly occurring by 2030,” said Will Frazier, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) analyst and lead author of the report. “To realize cost-optimal storage deployment, the power system will need to allow storage to provide capacity and energy time-shifting grid services.”
The SFS — led by NREL and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Energy Storage Grand Challenge — is a multiyear research project to explore how advancing energy storage technologies could impact the deployment of utility-scale storage and adoption of distributed storage, including impacts to future power system infrastructure investment and operations.
Expanded Capabilities to Model Storage Potential
For this work, researchers added new capabilities to NREL’s Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to accurately represent the value of diurnal battery energy storage when it is allowed to provide grid services — an inherently complex modeling challenge. Cost and performance metrics focus on Li-ion batteries because the technology has more market maturity than other emerging technologies. Because the value of storage depends greatly on timing, ReEDS simulated system operations every hour.
NREL researchers used ReEDS to model two sets of scenarios — one that allows storage to provide multiple grid services and one that restricts the services that storage can provide. All the scenarios use different cost and performance assumptions for storage, wind, solar PV, and natural gas to determine the key drivers of energy storage deployment.
Installed Storage Capacity Could Increase Five-Fold by 2050
Across all scenarios in the study, utility-scale diurnal energy storage deployment grows significantly through 2050, totaling over 125 gigawatts of installed capacity in the modest cost and performance assumptions — a more than five-fold increase from today’s total. Depending on cost and other variables, deployment could total as much as 680 gigawatts by 2050.
Chart courtesy of NREL — grid-scale U.S. storage capacity could grow five-fold by 2050.
Chart courtesy of NREL — grid-scale U.S. storage capacity could grow five-fold by 2050.
“These are game-changing numbers,” Frazier said. “Today we have 23 gigawatts of storage capacity, all of which is pumped-hydro.”
Initially, the new storage deployment is mostly shorter duration (up to 4 hours) and then progresses to longer durations (up to 12 hours) as deployment increases, mostly because longer-duration storage is currently more expensive. In 2030, annual deployment of battery storage ranges from 1 to 30 gigawatts across the scenarios. By 2050, annual deployment ranges from 7 to 77 gigawatts.
System Flexibility Key to Storage Deployment
To understand what could drive future grid-scale storage deployment, NREL modeled the techno-economic potential of storage when it is allowed to independently provide three grid services: capacity, energy time-shifting, and operating reserves.
- Blue — Energy Time-Shifting & Operating Reserves (No Firm Capacity From Storage)
- Black — Firm Capacity & Energy Time-Shifting (No Operating Reserves From Storage)
- Green — Firm Capacity & Operating Reserves (No Energy Time-Shifting From Storage)
NREL found not allowing storage to provide firm capacity impacts future deployment the most, although not allowing firm capacity or energy time-shifting services can also substantially decrease potential deployment. Operating reserves, on the hand, do not drive the deployment of storage within the study because they find limited overall market potential for this service.
Storage and Solar Symbiosis
Multiple NREL studies have pointed to the symbiotic nature of solar and storage, and this study reinforces that relationship. More PV generation makes peak demand periods shorter and decreases how much energy capacity is needed from storage — thereby increasing the value of storage capacity and effectively decreasing the cost of storage by allowing shorter-duration batteries to be a competitive source of peaking capacity. NREL found over time the value of energy storage in providing peaking capacity increases as load grows and existing generators retire.
Solar PV generation also has a strong relationship with time-shifting services. More PV generation creates more volatile energy price profiles, increasing the potential of storage energy time-shifting. Like peaking capacity, the value of energy time-shifting grows over time with increased PV penetration.
Next Up in the Storage Futures Study
The SFS will continue to explore topics from the foundational report that outlines a visionary framework for the possible evolution of the stationary energy storage industry — and the power system as a whole.
The next report in the series will assess customer adoption potential of distributed diurnal storage for several future scenarios. The study will also include the larger impacts of storage deployment on power system evolution and operations.
Visit the Storage Futures Study page for more information about the broader study, and learn more about NREL’s energy analysis research.
Learn More in June 22 Webinar
Join a webinar from 9 to 10 a.m. MT on Tuesday, June 22, to learn more about SFS results with Will Frazier and Nate Blair and hear from SFS analyst Paul Denholm on the visionary framework for the possible evolution of the stationary energy storage industry, outlined in the first report in the series. Register to attend.
Article courtesy of NREL, the U.S. Department of Energy.
Image courtesy of 8minute Solar Energy, plus Energy storage project.
Tesla has filed a new patent that strongly suggests the automaker is preparing to integrate Starlink satellite receivers directly into its vehicles.
The reason why is still unclear.
Tesla vehicles are already some of the most connected machines on the planet, relying heavily on cellular networks for everything from Autopilot data collection to over-the-air software updates and streaming features.
But cellular coverage has limits.
Now, a new patent filing reveals Tesla’s solution.
The patent, titled “Vehicle Roof Assembly with Radio Frequency Transparent Material,” describes a new roof structure designed specifically to allow satellite signals to pass through.
The filing notes that traditional automotive glass and metal roofs often block or attenuate satellite signals, making it difficult to hide an antenna inside the cabin. Tesla’s solution is to use specific polymer blends, such as polycarbonate or acrylonitrile styrene acrylate, that are “radio frequency (RF) transparent.”
The patent explicitly mentions that this assembly allows for the integration of “antennae directly into the roof structure, facilitating clear communication with external devices and satellites.”
Here is a drawing from the patent showing the multi-layer roof structure designed to hide the antenna while maintaining structural integrity:
While the patent doesn’t name “Starlink” directly (patents rarely name specific commercial products), the implications are obvious. Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet constellation, is a high-bandwidth, low-latency satellite network capable of supporting the kind of data Tesla vehicles consume.
We have already seen some Tesla owners retrofit Starlink Mini dishes onto their cars for off-grid camping, but this patent suggests a factory-integrated solution where the antenna is completely invisible, hidden inside the roof lining.
This would allow a Tesla to seamlessly switch between 5G cellular networks and the Starlink satellite network, depending on coverage, ensuring the car is always online.
Electrek’s Take
Cars don’t necessarily need satellite connections.
For a while, some thought it could be needed for autonomous driving by enabling constant connectivity, but it is generally accepted that you can’t rely on any kind of internet or in-car communication for self-driving. The risk is too high.
For the most part, a cellular connection is perfectly fine for a car.
However, I wouldn’t mind this if it’s offered as an option for people who are looking to stay connected in more remote areas. It could make sense for that.
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Environment
Oil rebounds from lowest levels since 2021 after Trump orders Venezuela oil tanker blockade
U.S. crude futures rose more than 1% Wednesday as Trump ordered “a total and complete” block of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.
Chinaface | E+ | Getty Images
Crude oil prices bounced back from near four-year lows Wednesday, after President Donald Trump said the U.S. will block sanctioned tankers from entering and leaving Venezuela.
U.S. crude oil rose $1.03, or 1.86%, to $56.30 per barrel by 7:52 a.m. ET. Global benchmark Brent was trading at $59.96, up $1.04 or 1.77%.
The U.S. benchmark had fallen to the lowest levels since early 2021 on Tuesday, as traders see a potential peace agreement in Ukraine bringing Russian crude back to a well supplied market.
Oil, 5 years
But Trump’s pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has lifted prices from those lows. The president said he ordered a “total and complete” blockade of sanctioned oil tankers leaving and entering Venezuela.
Trump’s blockade comes after the U.S. seized a sanctioned oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast last week in a major escalation.
Venezuela is a founding member of OPEC and has the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world. It is exporting about 749,000 barrels per day this year, with at least half that oil going to China, according to data from Kpler.
Through the Exelon Foundation, local utility Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE) has granted $250,000 to Civic Works’ Baltimore Shines solar initiative to support no-cost rooftop solar installations for low- and moderate-income homeowners.
Exelon-owned BGE is working with Civic Works to ensure that up to thirty (30) qualifying homeowners will be able to receive no-cost rooftop solar installations as part of a BGE-funded initiative to add more clean, renewable, and affordable energy to the Baltimore grid.
“BGE is committed to investing in solutions that make energy more affordable and help our customers manage their bills. Baltimore Shines is making a real difference by helping families lower their energy costs while expanding access to clean, renewable power,” explains Tamla Olivier, president and CEO of BGE. “Today’s completion of the 50th solar installation brings affordable energy where it is needed most. Thank you to Civic Works for helping us build a more equitable, sustainable Baltimore.”
Each selected home will get the roof and electrical upgrades needed to go solar, along with a 20 year maintenance plan to make sure the systems continue to cut fossil fuel dependence, support BGE’s clean energy goals, and deliver real progress on environmental justice and energy equity for years to come.
“We are also deeply appreciative of this new grant from BGE and the Exelon Foundation, which will expand access to clean energy and allow us to provide no-cost solar installations to additional limited- and moderate-income households,” says Eli Allen, senior program director of Civic Works. “Together, we are reducing monthly expenses for families and strengthening resilience across Baltimore neighborhoods.”
Once completed, those thirty homes are expected to generate more than 180,000 kWh of electricity per year, and cut more than 275,000 pounds of carbon dioxide emissions, annually. This solar initiative is also supported by the Maryland Energy Administration and the Mayor’s Office of Recovery Programs.
SOURCE | IMAGES: BGE, Civic Works.
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