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With declining technology costs and increasing renewable deployment, energy storage is poised to be a valuable resource on future power grids — but what is the total market potential for storage technologies, and what are the key drivers of cost-optimal deployment?

In the latest report from the Storage Futures Study (SFS), Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector, NREL analysts Will Frazier, Wesley Cole, Paul Denholm, Scott Machen, and Nate Blair, describe significant market potential for utility-scale diurnal storage (up to 12 hours) in the U.S. power system through 2050. They found storage adds the most value to the grid and deployment increases when the power system allows storage to simultaneously provide multiple grid services and when there is greater solar photovoltaic (PV) penetration.

“We find significant market potential for diurnal energy storage across a variety of modeled scenarios, mostly occurring by 2030,” said Will Frazier, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) analyst and lead author of the report. “To realize cost-optimal storage deployment, the power system will need to allow storage to provide capacity and energy time-shifting grid services.”

The SFS — led by NREL and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Energy Storage Grand Challenge — is a multiyear research project to explore how advancing energy storage technologies could impact the deployment of utility-scale storage and adoption of distributed storage, including impacts to future power system infrastructure investment and operations.

Expanded Capabilities to Model Storage Potential

For this work, researchers added new capabilities to NREL’s Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to accurately represent the value of diurnal battery energy storage when it is allowed to provide grid services — an inherently complex modeling challenge. Cost and performance metrics focus on Li-ion batteries because the technology has more market maturity than other emerging technologies. Because the value of storage depends greatly on timing, ReEDS simulated system operations every hour.

NREL researchers used ReEDS to model two sets of scenarios — one that allows storage to provide multiple grid services and one that restricts the services that storage can provide. All the scenarios use different cost and performance assumptions for storage, wind, solar PV, and natural gas to determine the key drivers of energy storage deployment.

Installed Storage Capacity Could Increase Five-Fold by 2050

Across all scenarios in the study, utility-scale diurnal energy storage deployment grows significantly through 2050, totaling over 125 gigawatts of installed capacity in the modest cost and performance assumptions — a more than five-fold increase from today’s total. Depending on cost and other variables, deployment could total as much as 680 gigawatts by 2050.

Chart courtesy of NREL — grid-scale U.S. storage capacity could grow five-fold by 2050.

Chart courtesy of NREL — grid-scale U.S. storage capacity could grow five-fold by 2050.

“These are game-changing numbers,” Frazier said. “Today we have 23 gigawatts of storage capacity, all of which is pumped-hydro.”

Initially, the new storage deployment is mostly shorter duration (up to 4 hours) and then progresses to longer durations (up to 12 hours) as deployment increases, mostly because longer-duration storage is currently more expensive. In 2030, annual deployment of battery storage ranges from 1 to 30 gigawatts across the scenarios. By 2050, annual deployment ranges from 7 to 77 gigawatts.

System Flexibility Key to Storage Deployment

To understand what could drive future grid-scale storage deployment, NREL modeled the techno-economic potential of storage when it is allowed to independently provide three grid services: capacity, energy time-shifting, and operating reserves.

  • Blue — Energy Time-Shifting & Operating Reserves (No Firm Capacity From Storage)
  • Black — Firm Capacity & Energy Time-Shifting (No Operating Reserves From Storage)
  • Green — Firm Capacity & Operating Reserves (No Energy Time-Shifting From Storage)

NREL found not allowing storage to provide firm capacity impacts future deployment the most, although not allowing firm capacity or energy time-shifting services can also substantially decrease potential deployment. Operating reserves, on the hand, do not drive the deployment of storage within the study because they find limited overall market potential for this service.

Storage and Solar Symbiosis

Multiple NREL studies have pointed to the symbiotic nature of solar and storage, and this study reinforces that relationship. More PV generation makes peak demand periods shorter and decreases how much energy capacity is needed from storage — thereby increasing the value of storage capacity and effectively decreasing the cost of storage by allowing shorter-duration batteries to be a competitive source of peaking capacity. NREL found over time the value of energy storage in providing peaking capacity increases as load grows and existing generators retire.

Solar PV generation also has a strong relationship with time-shifting services. More PV generation creates more volatile energy price profiles, increasing the potential of storage energy time-shifting. Like peaking capacity, the value of energy time-shifting grows over time with increased PV penetration.

Next Up in the Storage Futures Study

The SFS will continue to explore topics from the foundational report that outlines a visionary framework for the possible evolution of the stationary energy storage industry — and the power system as a whole.

The next report in the series will assess customer adoption potential of distributed diurnal storage for several future scenarios. The study will also include the larger impacts of storage deployment on power system evolution and operations.

Visit the Storage Futures Study page for more information about the broader study, and learn more about NREL’s energy analysis research.

Learn More in June 22 Webinar

Join a webinar from 9 to 10 a.m. MT on Tuesday, June 22, to learn more about SFS results with Will Frazier and Nate Blair and hear from SFS analyst Paul Denholm on the visionary framework for the possible evolution of the stationary energy storage industry, outlined in the first report in the series. Register to attend.

Article courtesy of NREL, the U.S. Department of Energy.

Image courtesy of 8minute Solar Energy, plus Energy storage project.


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Wheel-E Podcast: 65 MPH ONYX moped, lightweight Dahon e-bikes, more

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Wheel-E Podcast: 65 MPH ONYX moped, lightweight Dahon e-bikes, more

This week on Electrek’s Wheel-E podcast, we discuss the most popular news stories from the world of electric bikes and other nontraditional electric vehicles. This time, that includes a new ONYX RCR 80V electric moped, new lightweight e-bike motors, Aventon’s powerful update, California cops catching illegal e-bike riders with drones, a super lightweight new e-bike from Dahon, and more.

Today’s episode is sponsored by CYCROWN, an e-Bike company born from a passion for cycling. Its lineup now includes the new CYCROWN Dremax – a high-performance urban commuter e-bike now on sale in the US and Canada. Use Electrek50 to save $50 off your new eBike when you order.

The Wheel-E podcast returns every two weeks on Electrek’s YouTube channel, Facebook, Linkedin, and Twitter.

As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.

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We also have a Patreon if you want to help us to avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.

Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the Wheel-E podcast today:

Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 9:00 a.m. ET (or the video after 10:00 a.m. ET):

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China’s nationwide ‘cash for clunkers’ trade-in program causing huge e-bike boom

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China's nationwide 'cash for clunkers' trade-in program causing huge e-bike boom

While much of the Western world is still figuring out how to get more people on electric bikes, China just flipped a switch, and the results are staggering. Thanks to a generous nationwide trade-in program rolled out around six months ago, China has seen an explosive surge in electric bicycle sales, with over 8.47 million new e-bikes hitting the road in the first half of 2025 alone.

The program, which offers subsidies to riders who trade in their old, often outdated electric bikes for newer, safer, and more efficient models, has sparked a new e-bike sale boom in a country already dominated by e-bike travel. In major provinces like Jiangsu, Hebei, and Zhejiang, over one million new e-bikes were sold in each region in just six months. That’s a tidal wave of e-bike sales.

The incentives vary depending on location and the model being traded in, but for many consumers, the subsidies cover a substantial portion of a new e-bike’s price – enough to turn a “maybe next year” purchase into a “right now” upgrade. And these aren’t just budget bikes either. The program has driven demand for higher-quality models with better batteries, safer braking systems, and more reliable electronics, accelerating both adoption and innovation across the industry.

The move has proven successful in replacing the millions of older models with lower-quality lithium-ion batteries that had posed safety risks around the country. Instead, China has pushed for higher-quality lithium-ion batteries, a return to a newer generation of higher-performance AGM batteries, and even interesting new sodium-ion battery options.

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Most e-bikes in China look more like what we’d consider seated scooters

According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, more than 8.4 million consumers have participated in the e-bike trade-in program so far, contributing to a sales increase of 643.5% year-over-year and more than doubling sales month-over-month. Meanwhile, production of new electric bicycles rose by nearly 28%, as manufacturers scrambled to meet demand. The sales boosts have already been seen in the financial reports of major industry players like NIU.

And it’s not just the big players benefiting – over 82,000 small independent e-bike dealers reported average sales increases of ¥302,000 (around US $42,000), giving a serious boost to local economies.

What’s particularly striking here is how fast this happened. The program was officially launched late last year as part of a broader effort to stimulate domestic consumption and phase out outdated vehicles and appliances. But while most analysts expected gradual growth, the e-bike sector responded much more quickly. In less than a year, the trade-in subsidies have reshaped the electric bicycle market, creating a consumer-driven boom that shows no signs of slowing.

For those of us watching from outside China, it’s hard not to wonder what might happen if other countries tried something similar. While most families in Chinese cities already own an electric bike and thus see this as an opportunity to trade it in for a newer model, Western countries like the US are still figuring out how to stimulate commuters into buying their first e-bike.

It’s too soon to know exactly how long the boom will last or whether the momentum will carry into 2026 and beyond. We’ve seen bicycle industry bubbles grow and burst before. But one thing’s clear: with the right incentives, even modest ones, it’s possible to ignite real, large-scale change. China just proved it with nearly 8.5 million new e-bikes to show for it.

And if you’re wondering what it looks like when a country takes electric micromobility seriously, this is it.

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Day 1 of the Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix 2025 [Gallery]

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Day 1 of the Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix 2025 [Gallery]

Today was the official start of racing at the Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix 2025! There was a tremendous energy (and heat) on the ground at NCM Motorsports Park as nearly a dozen teams took to the track. Currently, as of writing, Stanford is ranked #1 in the SOV (Single-Occupant Vehicle) class with 68 registered laps. However, the fastest lap so far belongs to UC Berkeley, which clocked a 4:45 on the 3.15-mile track. That’s an average speed of just under 40 mph on nothing but solar energy. Not bad!

In the MOV (Multi-Occupant Vehicle) class, Polytechnique Montréal is narrowly ahead of Appalachian State by just 4 laps. At last year’s formula sun race, Polytechnique Montréal took first place overall in this class, and the team hopes to repeat that success. It’s still too early for prediction though, and anything can happen between now and the final day of racing on Saturday.

Congrats to the teams that made it on track today. We look forward to seeing even more out there tomorrow. In the meantime, here are some shots from today via the event’s wonderful photographer Cora Kennedy.

Stay tuned for more!

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