Britain’s lowest-paid workers are most at risk of unemployment when the government’s furlough scheme ends later this year, according to a new study.
They were also three times more likely to have already lost their jobs during the pandemic, after a “rollercoaster” year, researchers at the Resolution Foundation said.
The think tank, which focuses on living standards, said that as of March 2021, more than 21% of the lowest-paid workers had either lost their job or lost hours and had pay cut, or were furloughed, due to the crisis compared with less than 7% of the top earners.
And while many workers are returning from furlough, others will be at risk when the scheme ends in September.
The number of workers on furlough has fallen to its lowest level this year despite at least 3.4 million people still relying on the job protection scheme, according to government statistics published on Thursday.
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The reduction was in part driven by the reopening of pubs and restaurants for outdoor dining in April.
More than one million employees left the scheme between March and April, with some of the biggest falls in people under the age of 25, the government said.
“Big risks still lie ahead. Low-paid workers are most at risk from the expected rise in unemployment later this year, which also risks causing greater job insecurity,” said Nye Cominetti, a senior economist at the Resolution Foundation.
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Unemployment has hit its highest level in four years and millions more workers have been placed on furlough.
But there is cause for optimism too. Just as low-paid workers have been hardest hit by lockdown restrictions on the sectors they work in, the think-tank said in its report they should also benefit the most from the reopening of the economy from April onwards.
As outdoor dining opened up, rates of furloughing in hospitality fell from 58% at the end of March to 48% at the end of April.
“The government can salute the vital contribution of Britain’s low-paid workers by offering them a new post-pandemic settlement – from better pay via a higher National Living Wage to greater security of working hours, and proper enforcement to tackle labour market abuses,” Ms Cominetti said.
An industry body has warned that the equivalent of more than one pub a day is set to close across Great Britain this year.
According to the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA), an estimated 378 venues will shut down across England, Wales and Scotland.
This would amount to more than 5,600 direct job losses, the industry body warns. It has called for a reduction in the cumulative tax and regulatory burden for the hospitalitysector – including cutting business rates and beer duty.
The body – representing members that brew 90% of British beer and own more than 20,000 pubs – said such measures would slow the rate at which bars are closing.
BBPA chief executive Emma McClarkin said that while pubs are trading well, “most of the money that goes into the till goes straight back out in bills and taxes”.
“For many, it’s impossible to make a profit, which all too often leads to pubs turning off the lights for the last time,” she said.
“When a pub closes, it puts people out of a job, deprives communities of their heart and soul, and hurts the local economy.”
She urged the government to “proceed with meaningful business rates reform, mitigate these eye-watering new employment and EPR (extended producer responsibility) costs, and cut beer duty”.
“We’re not asking for special treatment, we just want the sector’s rich potential unleashed,” she added.
The government has said it plans to reform the current business rates system, saying in March that an interim report on the measure would be published this summer.
From April, relief on property tax – that came in following the COVID-19 pandemic – was cut from 75% to 40%, leading to higher bills for hospitality, retail and leisure businesses.
The rate of employer National Insurance Contributions also rose from 13.8% to 15% that month, and the wage threshold was lowered from £9,100 to £5,000, under measures announced by Rachel Reeves in the October budget.
Donald Trump has revealed a list of more nations set to face delayed ‘liberation day’ tariffs from 1 August.
He has threatened tariffs of 30% on Algeria, 25% on Brunei, 30% on Iraq, 30% on Libya, 25% on Moldova and 20% on the Philippines. Sri Lanka was later told it faced a 30% duty.
Letters setting out the planned rates – and warning against retaliation – are being sent to the leaders of each country.
They were the latest to be informed of the president‘s plans after Japan and South Korea were among the first 14 nations to be told of the rates they must pay on their general exports to the US from 1 August.
The duties are on top of sectoral tariffs, covering areas such as steel and cars, already in place.
Mr Trump further warned, on Tuesday, that a 50% tariff rate on all copper imports to the US was looming.
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He has also threatened a 200% rate on pharmaceuticals and is also expected to take aim at all imports of semiconductors too.
The European Union, America’s largest trading partner in combined trade, services and investment, is expected to get a letter within the next 48 hours unless further progress is made in continuing talks.
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The bloc, which Mr Trump has previously claimed was created to “screw” the US, has been in negotiations with US officials for weeks and working to agree a UK-style truce by the end of the month.
The EU has retaliatory tariffs ready to deploy from 14 July but it is widely expected to delay them until such time that any heightened US duties are imposed.
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It remains hopeful of a deal in the coming days but European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament: “We stick to our principles, we defend our interests, we continue to work in good faith, and we get ready for all scenarios.”
While the UK’s so-called deal with Mr Trump is now in force, it remains unclear whether steelmakers will have to pay a 50% tariff rate, deployed by the US against the rest of the world, as some final details on an exemption are yet to be worked out.
The value of its shares has risen by 409,825% since its market debut in 1999.
Its status has been cemented thanks to the rush for AI technology – suffering several wobbles along the way – but nothing significant when you refer to the percentage rise of the past 26 years.
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The most recent pressures have come from the emergence of the low-cost chatbot DeepSeek and concerns for global AI demand as a result of Donald Trump’s trade war hitting growth.
Financial markets have been taking a more risk-on approach to the trade war since the delays to “liberation day” tariffs in April.
It’s explained by a market trend that’s become known as the TACO trade: Trump always chickens out.
Image: The milestone is reported by Sky’s US partner CNBC, seen on screens at the New York Stock Exchange. Pic: Reuters
It has helped US stock markets post new record highs in recent days.
The wave of optimism is down to the fact that the president is yet to follow through with the worst of his threatened tariffs on trading partners.
Corporations are also yet to report big hits to their earnings – a fact that is also propping up demand for shares.
If Mr Trump does go all-out in his trade war, as he has now threatened from 1 August, then that $4trn market value for Nvidia – and wider stock markets – could be short-lived, at least in the short term.
But market analysts believe Nvidia’s value has further to go.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said of its meteoric rise: “Once known for powering video games, NVIDIA has transformed into a foundational player in AI infrastructure.
“Its high-performance chips now drive everything from natural language processing to robotics, making them essential to training and deploying advanced AI models.
“Beyond hardware, its full-stack ecosystem – including software platforms and developer tools – helps companies scale AI quickly and efficiently. This end-to-end approach has positioned Nvidia as a cornerstone in a market where speed, scalability, and efficiency are critical.”
He added: “The key question is where it goes from here, and while it might seem strange for a company that’s just passed the $4trn mark, Nvidia still looks attractive.
“Growth is expected to slow, and it’s likely to lose some market share as competition and custom solutions ramp up. But trading at a relatively modest 32 times expected earnings, and over 50% top-line growth forecast this year, there’s still an attractive opportunity ahead.
“For investors, it remains a compelling way to gain exposure to the AI boom – not just as a participant, but as one of its architects.”