End of the road for Netanyahu – the man they call ‘the magician’ has run out of tricks
Benjamin Netanyahu, the ever-present figure in Israeli politics for three decades is down and out.
“Bibi”, to give him his near-universal nickname, has been written off so many times, but now, the man they call “the magician” has run out of tricks and run out of road.
After four elections in just two years, 24 months of political stagnation, a new dawn has broken for Israeli politics. It heralds the beginning for a remarkable coalition and the end for an extraordinary political operator.
Anshel Pfeffer, Netanyahu’s biographer, said Netanyahu ‘was Trump before Trump’
Trump before Trump
Benjamin Netanyahu has been Israel‘s prime minister for the last 12 years: the longest serving leader in the country’s history. That wasn’t the start though. He was also prime minister between 1996 and 1999. In opposition before then and between those two stints, he was in the wings, plotting and driving his form of populist nationalist politics.
Bibi, the secular Jewish populist, cast himself as the defender of the nation against Iran, the defender of the Jewish State against the Palestinians, and most recently, as the saviour of the nation against coronavirus.
He is a politician who was channelling Trump while the former American president was still building casinos.
“He was Trump before Trump,” Netanyahu’s unofficial biographer, Anshel Pfeffer told me.
“He is a constant campaigner, he’s basically running for re-election the whole time. He doesn’t take a break between elections. So many of the populist politicians we talk about today – Orban in Hungary, Boris Johnson; Netanyahu was doing a lot of what they are doing now long before they were on the scene.
“Probably the only politician who was doing this in the television era before Netanyahu is Silvio Berlusconi in Italy,” Pfeffer said.
A survivor not a winner
Curiously Netanyahu was never actually a landslide politician. While often compared, as a savvy political operator, to Blair or Clinton, he only ever scraped in, but he did it consistently and that’s what mattered.
Israel is a country that functions on coalitions and Bibi was always the man who managed to form them. Critics, though, say he did it through exploitation rather than consensus.
Ehud Olmert was Netanyahu’s predecessor as prime minister. The two men were once in the same party, Likud. But as it tacked to the right, Olmert remained a centrist.
Mr Olmert told Sky News: “We never we were never friends. I never liked him. I never felt close to him. I never felt that he is a genuine human being [but] I thought it was a highly talented performer, the greatest that I’ve met in modern politics… He’s a genius. I mean, there there will be no one that can compete with him in on television. Laurence Olivier?”
He continued: “He’s a great performer, but when you look at the substance of things, the divisions within the Israeli society today are greater than ever before.”
Ehud Olmert, Netanyahu’s predecessor as prime minister, said ‘we were never friends’ but Netanyahu is ‘a genius’
Pfeffer agreed: “Netanyahu is the most divisive prime minister in history, he has exploited every divide in Israeli society between Jews and Arabs, religious and secular, left and right.
“All these all these divides have been exploited and the communities have been played off against each other to keep him in power. That’s something that Israeli society will be paying the price for for years to come.”
Danny Danon has been a close confidant of Netanyahu for decades. He is a former Likud party politician and a nationalist who doesn’t believe in a two-state solution with the Palestinians. Until last year he was Netanyahu’s ambassador to the United Nations.
He told Sky News: “Many Israelis were born knowing only Netanyahu as the prime minister of Israel.
“He is one of the greatest leaders in Israel’s history and his dedication to our security, I think that the most important thing in his legacy.”
Under Netanyahu, Israel enjoyed the longest period of economic growth in its history; an achievement only damaged by the coronavirus pandemic which ‘the magician’ managed still to turn to his advantage. From the beginning he was the consummate communicator.
Describing his early political years, Pfeffer, author of Bibi: The Turbulent Life & Times of Benjamin Netanyahu, said: “He had literally sat at home over weekends with a rented video camera and trained himself how to do sound bites, how to do have strong, strong interviews on television.
“And when he came along in the late 1980s, he literally blew everyone away and he’s kept that advantage ever since.”
The lights have gone out on Netanyahu’s tenure as Israel’s prime minister
Bibi the peacemaker?
Despite his persona as a tough-man, the former captain in the Israeli special forces actually presided over a period of relative calm, in Israeli terms.
He has been risk-averse while building up the nation’s defences and moulding a stalemate with the Palestinians precisely because it played to his advantage.
Pfeffer said: “He has this warmongering image which he which he builds up himself, but he never pushed the button and he never launched the big attack on Iran… He didn’t launch another war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, as his predecessors did. So all these things have been talked about, but never actually happened. He’s been risk averse and that is to his credit.”
But it was all to the detriment of the Palestinian people. Netanyahu’s politics, combined with splits and failures in the Palestinians’ own leadership, have stalled the peace process.
Olmert believes the impact of this failure on the reputation of the Jewish State is huge: “The lack of political solution for the Palestinian issue is the greatest threat to the status of the State of Israel. We need to separate from the Palestinians. We need to end the occupation. We can’t be seen in the international community as occupiers because this will destroy the image of Israel, the status of Israel.”
The latest round of fighting in Gaza hinted at a consequence of the stalemate. The Palestinian cause seemed more united than ever before, but it was a street-level unity. The politicians on all sides remain intransigent.
Palestinian politician Hanan Ashrawi said Netanyahu’s legacy was ‘one of the most, if not the most destructive legacy for Israel, for the whole region’
Hanan Ashrawi, a central figure over decades in the quest for Palestinian statehood has a scathing assessment of Netanyahu’s legacy.
She told Sky News: “I think Netanyahu’s legacy has been one of the most, if not the most destructive legacy for Israel, for the whole region, and I think in many ways, by legitimising fascism and violence and manipulation and control as well as corruption, he has created a situation where the chances of peace have become all that more difficult, if not impossible.”
Confronting Iran
After 12 years in power, Netanyahu as been central in reminding western nations of what he sees as the malign behaviour of Iran. Yet in that time, Iran has come closer and closer to obtaining a nuclear weapon. Mr Danon doesn’t see this as a failure.
He told me: “I think the fact that he put Iran on the spotlight in the last decade and everybody today sees the real threat coming from Tehran… maybe some people see different ways to deal with the threat, but he exposed it and he mobilised our intelligence agencies to bring information. And today the Iranians cannot work quietly, continue with their ideas. All the spotlights on them.”
The last few years of his premiership have been dominated by his corruption trial – three cases of fraud, bribery and breach of trust. The trial is ongoing.
Netanyahu is said to have used Trump-style tactics long before the former US president came to power
The legacy?
Netanyahu presided over a prolonged period of peace within Israel, but even that was in doubt with recent sectarian violence between Arabs and Jews which he did nothing to calm.
He signed unprecedented and laudable diplomatic normalisation deals with Gulf Arab nations, but on that core issue which defines the land he’s ruled for so long, the Israel-Palestinian conflict, something which many Israelis seem oddly oblivious to, there are no solutions.
Netanyahu failed to bring about a lasting peace and chose instead the status quo which works for Israelis but does not for the Palestinians.
In his final interview before he died in 2016, former Israeli president and prime minister Shimon Peres was asked if he still thought there was a chance for peace between Israel and the Palestinians.
He said: “I don’t think there [is] another alternative. Neither for the Palestinians, nor for us. The only alternative is an ongoing war. But contrary to what people think, in war there are no victories, only victims. No war is ever finished unless its being replaced by peace.”
Netanyahu and his supporters will claim he achieved many victories. But he did not replace war with peace.
The US secretary of state has hailed a “tremendous amount of progress” on peace talks after the US and Ukraine delegations met in Geneva – but said that negotiators would “need more time”.
Marco Rubio said the meetings in Switzerland on Sunday have been “the most productive and meaningful” of the peace process so far.
He said the US was making “some changes” to the peace plan, seemingly based on Ukrainian suggestions, “in the hopes of further narrowing the differences and getting closer to something that both Ukraine and obviously the United States are very comfortable with”.
Mr Rubio struck an optimistic tone talking to the media after discussions but was light on the details, saying there was still work to be done.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio in Geneva after peace talks with Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
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Analysis: Rubio strikes an optimistic tone – but is light on detail
“I don’t want to declare victory or finality here. There’s still some work to be done, but we are much further ahead today at this time than we were when we began this morning and where we were a week ago for certain,” Mr Rubio said.
He also stressed: “We just need more time than what we have today. I honestly believe we’ll get there.”
Sky News’ defence analyst Michael Clarke said on the initial US-Russian 28-point peace plan that it was Donald Trump against the world, with maybe only Moscow on his side.
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Is Trump’s plan a ‘capitulation document’?
Mr Rubio praised the Ukrainian attitude towards the talks and said Mr Trump was “quite pleased” after he previously said in a social media post that Ukraine’s leaders had expressed “ZERO GRATITUDE” for US efforts.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Sunday that there are signs that “President Trump’s team hears us”.
In a news release on Sunday evening, the White House said the day “marked a significant step forward”.
“Ukrainian representatives stated that, based on the revisions and clarifications presented today, they believe the current draft reflects their national interests and provides credible and enforceable mechanisms to safeguard Ukraine’s security in both the near and long term,” it claimed.
Despite diplomatic progress in Geneva the finish line remains a long way off
We’ve witnessed a day of determined and decidedly frantic diplomacy in this well-heeled city.
Camera crews were perched on street corners and long convoys of black vehicles swept down Geneva’s throughfares as the Ukrainians worked hard to keep the Americans on side.
Secretary of state Marco Rubio did not want to go into details at a press “gaggle” held at the US Mission this evening, but he seemed to think they had made more progress in the last 96 hours than the previous 10 months combined.
The Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy also seemed satisfied enough, posting on Telegram that there were “signals President Trump’s team is hearing us” after a day of “numerous meetings and negotiations”.
That said, we are a long way from the finish line here – something Rubio acknowledged when he said that any proposal agreed here would have to be handed over to the Russians.
At that point, negotiations to stop the war would surely get tougher.
President Putin has shown little or no inclination to stop the conflict thus far.
This, then, is the most important reason the Ukrainians seem determined to keep the Americans on side.
European leaders have presented a counter proposal to the widely criticised US-Russian peace plan, with suggestions including a cap on Ukraine’s peacetime army and readmitting Moscow into the G8.
This will only take place if the plan is agreed to by the US, Russia and Ukraine, and the G7 signs off on the move. Russia was expelled after annexing Crimea in 2014.
The counter proposal also includes US guarantees to Ukraine that mirror NATO’s Article 5 – the idea that “an armed attack against one NATO member shall be considered an attack against them all”.
The initial peace plan was worked up by the White House and Kremlin without Ukraine’s involvement, and it acquiesces to many of Russia’s previous demands.
Read more:
Who actually wrote US-Russian peace plan for Ukraine?
In full: Europe’s 28-point counter proposal to US-Russia plan
It covers a range of issues – from territorial concessions to reconstruction programmes, the future Ukrainian relationship with NATO and the EU, and educational reforms in both Ukraine and Russia.
Footage geolocated by Sky News showed Russian soldiers walking through the Shakhtarskyi neighbourhood on the outskirts of Pokrovsk on Thursday.
The video sheds light on the situation in this key frontline area, as Russian forces slowly encroach on Myrnohrad, the satellite town to Pokrovsk, and one of its last remaining outposts.
Videos geolocated by Sky News show fighting intensifying in recent weeks, as Russian forces attempt to gain control of the towns and their network of road and rail intersections.
Gaining control here would give Russia a base from which to access key cities further north that form part of Ukraine’s “fortress belt”.
Russian forces are advancing from all directions, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), with only one small opening to the northwest of Myrnohrad remaining.
Estimated to be only 3km wide by military experts, this withdrawal corridor is patrolled by Russian drone units which monitor the area for moving vehicles and those who may attempt to leave on foot.
Russian forces have been advancing on Myrnohrad since late October.
Video from a Ukrainian unit in Myrnohad, posted on 29 October, shows a Russian vehicle attempting to enter the town from the northeast. The tank is attacked and soldiers attempting to enter on foot are targeted.
Video posted on 3 November shows Russian forces on the ground in the south of the town.
By 8 November, Russian strikes begin to pummel the northeast of Myrnohrad, the location of many of the town’s high-rise buildings, at that time, held by Ukrainian forces.
George Barros, Russia Team & Geospatial Intelligence Team Lead at ISW, told Sky News that Russian strategy in Pokrovsk has been to erode Ukrainian logistical capacity using drones and artillery over the course of several months.
“After denying supply lines and degrading the frontline forces by essentially cutting them off from behind and starving them out in their positions, then the Russians move forward with their infantry and frontal assaults,” Barros explained.
Capture the flag
For a brief period, it looked as though Russian forces had captured Myrnohrad.
Videos posted on 13 November appeared to show a Russian flag flying over the Myrnohrad mine.
However, video posted the following day showed a Ukrainian drone shooting it down.
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to fight for control of Myrnohrad, with videos posted on the 19 and 20 November showing Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in the town, and Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian forces on foot.
While the exact numbers of Russian and Ukrainian forces in the area remains unclear, reports indicate that three key Russian units are active in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and are advancing on the towns from the north and south.
A number of Ukrainian units remain inside the towns, including the 145th Assault regiment and the 32nd, 35th, 38th and 155th Brigades. Reports indicate that more Ukrainian units have been moved into surrounding areas to hold the withdrawal corridor open.
Sky News reached out to the Ukrainian brigades still in Myrnohrad, but they declined to comment, citing military regulations.
Strategic significance
Natia Seskuria, associate international security fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), explained that the area is important for the Ukrainians to keep and the Russians to take because of its strategic position.
“Situated at a major road and rail intersection in Donetsk Oblast, Pokrovsk has functioned as a central artery for moving troops, equipment, and supplies to Ukrainian units deployed along the surrounding front.”
Russia “would gain a platform to redirect its offensive efforts toward Ukraine’s principal defensive urban centres… including Kramatorsk and Slovyansk,” Seskuria said.
Read more:
Analysis – Ukraine and its allies are in a perilous moment
Analysis: Europe scrambles at G20 over Ukraine peace plane
G20 lands in South Africa: But who feels forgotten?
Ukrainian and Russian soldiers in Pokrovsk have fought intensely and at close quarters over the last month.
In late October US-made Black Hawk helicopters containing specialist troops directed by Ukrainian military intelligence entered Pokrovsk to try to keep the town.
But as Russian troops advance, Myrnohrad is becoming the last stronghold of Ukrainian forces in the area.
Uncertain future
At least up until 12 November, there were still civilians living in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, despite strikes on buildings in both cities.
Residents sit in an armoured vehicle as Ukrainian police officers evacuate them from Pokrovske on 11 November. Source: Reuters
A post made on that day by the Donetsk state regional administration estimated 1,200 people remain living in Pokrovsk and 900 in Myrnohrad.
Evacuation is only possible with the help of the military or police, and it is not clear how many have evacuated in the 11 days since.
Barros of ISW says gaining Pokrovsk would increase Russia’s leverage at the negotiating table.
“If the Russians can successfully convince enough international leaders that, okay, the Russians took Pokrovsk, they’re going to take the next thing, and they’re going take the thing, so now let’s negotiate, then that is a strategic victory for the Russians.”
Production by Michelle Inez Simon, Visual Investigations Producer.
The Data x Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Torrential rain, flooding and landslides has left more than 100 people dead or missing in Vietnam.
Rainfall has exceeded 74.8in (1.9 metres) in some parts of central Vietnam over the past week.
The region is a major coffee production belt and home to popular beaches, but it is also prone to storms and floods.
Fatalities have been reported in Dak Lak province and the neighbouring Khanh Hoa province.
Parts of Quy Nhon has been under several feet of water. Pic: picture-alliance/dpa/AP
Footage has been released by local police of a dramatic rescue, involving a drone which airlifted a stranded man to safety from an island in the middle of the Serepok River, Dak Lak province.
The government estimates the flooding has cost the economy around 8.98 trillion dong (£260m).
More than 235,000 houses were flooded and nearly 80,000 hectares of crops were damaged, Vietnam’s disaster agency said.
On Thursday, VietnamNet newspaper said that a suspension bridge on Da Nhim River in Lam Dong province had been swept away.
Video footage posted online showed the bridge being swallowed by the river in just a few seconds.
Naval forces have been deployed to help stranded citizens in Khanh Hoa, the Vietnam News Agency reported, adding that floodwaters had reached record highs in many areas.
Photos shared in state media reports showed residents, including children, sitting on the roofs of flooded houses in Khanh Hoa, Gia Lai and Dak Lak provinces.
Read more from Sky News:
Crisis talks in Geneva on Ukraine
Trump wants MTG to return to politics
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A seven-year-old girl was rescued late on Wednesday in Da Lat, the capital of Lam Dong province, after being buried by a landslide, the Nhan Dan newspaper reported.
The landslide, triggered by heavy rain, knocked down and buried part of the house where the girl was staying.
She was pulled out after an hour and a half and was taken to hospital with a broken leg, according to the report.
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