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The UK’s economy will bounce back to pre-COVID levels by the end of 2021 despite the end of lockdown being delayed, the CBI has forecast – a year earlier than expected.

However, the business group has warned of devastation for some still-closed sectors if they are not given more support.

The CBI has upgraded its growth forecast for this year to 8.2%, helped by a spending surge fuelled by improving household incomes and savings built up during lockdowns.

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That will mean GDP bouncing back to its pre-pandemic level by the end of 2021.

The latest report said: “Despite the delay on the lifting of all lockdown restrictions for another month, the UK economy is still set for a breakthrough year.”

It said the economy was poised for “considerable economic growth over the summer” but that “this won’t be felt as strongly by those sectors still working under restrictions”.

Britain suffered its biggest annual economic decline for 300 years in 2020, shrinking by nearly 10% thanks to the pandemic. It took a further hit at the start of this year as fresh lockdowns took their toll.

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The easing of restrictions since the spring has fuelled hopes of a strong bounce back, but there were fears that delaying the planned end of the measures on 21 June could hamper the recovery.

Confirmation of the four-week delay will mean some businesses such as pubs and restaurants must continue to operate at limited capacity, while others such as nightclubs must stay closed.

A waitress carries meals to a table during service at Loxleys Restaurant & Wine Bar in Stratford, Warwickshire, as indoor hospitality and entertainment venues reopen to the public following the further easing of lockdown restrictions in England. Picture date: Monday May 17, 2021.
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Sectors such as hospitality are still being held back by restrictions

The government has offered a degree of relief by extending a moratorium on commercial landlords evicting struggling tenants into the new year.

But the Treasury has resisted making any further extension to the furlough scheme and business rates relief, which are both due to start tapering off by the end of this month.

The CBI’s forecast of 8.2% growth this year is an upgrade from its previous prediction of 6%, while it has also hiked its outlook for 2022 from 5.2% to 6.1%.

Like other forecasters, it is also scaling back its fears about the rise in unemployment.

The business group estimates that a significant part of the economy’s rebound this year will come from the government’s spending to tackle COVID-19.

But it cautions that stagnant productivity and business investment will continue to drag on the longer-term outlook.

File photo dated 04/11/20 of CBI director-general Tony Danker.
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CBI director general Tony Danker said it would be devastating if some firms fail in the “last leg” of lockdown

CBI director general Tony Danker said there were “really positive signs about the economic recovery this year and next” with “pent-up demand and ambition across many sectors”.

But he added: “Clearly this does not apply to the hardest hit sectors from the pandemic who even now face continued delays and genuine challenges to stay viable.

“Extending the commercial rent moratorium will help keep some firms’ heads above water, but the government must also do the same on business rates relief.

“It would be devastating for hospitality, events or aviation businesses to fail on what we hope is the last leg of restrictions.”

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Apple reports biggest drop in iPhone sales since early months of pandemic – and reveals AI plans

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Apple reports biggest drop in iPhone sales since early months of pandemic - and reveals AI plans

Tech giant Apple has recorded the biggest drop in iPhone sales since the early months of the COVID pandemic.

Sales for January to March were down 10% on the same period last year – something not seen since the 2020 iPhone model was delayed due to lockdown factory closures.

Overall, Apple earned $90.8bn (£72.4bn) in the latest quarter – down 4% from last year. It was the fifth consecutive three-month period that the company’s revenue dipped from the previous year.

Apple’s profit in the past quarter was $23.64bn (£18.85bn) – a 2% dip from last year.

It was good news, however, for the overall value of the company as its share price rose nearly 7% after investors had expected a bigger drop in sales.

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Meanwhile, Apple chief executive Tim Cook has discussed how the company is set to use artificial intelligence (AI).

While rival Samsung introduced phones that can feature AI, including generative AI chatbots, Apple has yet to announce how it will be embedded into its iPhones.

The next iPhone is expected to feature AI microchips and bigger screens.

Apple will reveal the newest software when it holds its annual developers’ conference in June.

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Generative AI could power phones to write software code, essays or create images based on a prompt by users.

Mr Cook said the company feels “very bullish about our opportunity in generative AI and we’re making significant investments”, adding: “We’re looking forward to sharing some very exciting things.”

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Goldman Sachs scraps bonus cap for top London-based staff

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Goldman Sachs scraps bonus cap for top London-based staff

Goldman Sachs is removing a cap on bonuses for London-based staff, paving the way for it to resume making multimillion pound payouts to its best-performing traders and dealmakers.

Sky News can exclusively reveal that the Wall Street banking giant notified its UK employees on Thursday that it had decided to abolish the existing pay ratio imposed under European Union rules and which the government recently decided to scrap.

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In a video message to staff, Richard Gnodde, chief executive of Goldman Sachs International, which comprises its operations outside the US, said it had decided to bring its remuneration policy in Britain in line with its operations elsewhere in the world.

“We are a global firm and to the extent possible we adopt a consistent global approach across everything we do,” Mr Gnodde said in the message, which has been relayed to Sky News.

“The bonus cap rules were an important factor preventing us from being consistent in the area of compensation.”

He added that the shift would “mean lower fixed pay, but a higher proportion of discretionary compensation”, adding that it “also reflects the prudential objective of our regulators”.

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The removal of the cap means several hundred UK-based Goldman staff will now be eligible for variable pay worth up to 25 times their base salaries, according to insiders.

As a consequence, allowances which were introduced to help those employees deal with the cap will begin to be reduced from 1 July, Mr Gnodde told employees.

People close to the bank insisted, however, that the revised approach would not necessarily mean senior employees being paid more, but that they could now be appropriately rewarded for exceptional performance and that the move would allow Goldman more flexibility to manage its fixed cost base.

Goldman is among the first major investment banks to signal its intention to pursue a revised approach to remuneration in the wake of the cap’s abolition by UK regulators last October.

Under it, firms were prohibited from paying their material risk-takers – or most senior staff – more than twice their fixed pay in bonuses.

Some banks used the mechanism of a fixed-pay allowance in addition to employees’ base salaries to give them more flexibility to pay larger bonuses.

While Goldman’s move may draw controversy, the EU bonus cap drew criticism from many influential figures in finance over many years, including from Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England governor, who said in 2014 that it was “the wrong policy [and] the debate around it is misguided”.

During his ill-fated stint as chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng moved to scrap the EU bonus cap, saying it would boost the international competitiveness of Britain’s financial services sector.

UK regulators agreed that scrapping the cap would aid financial stability by enabling firms to reduce pay faster during downturns or in scenarios where they needed to conserve capital.

Mr Gnodde has publicly endorsed the removal of the cap, saying in 2020 that doing so would “put the UK on the same footing, aside from the EU, with every other major financial centre”.

“Removing that ratio makes London a more attractive place for sure,” he said at the time.

“If I move a senior person between New York and London I am driving up the fixed cost of our operations. If that rule doesn’t exist, I don’t have to think about that.”

While Goldman is among the first to notify its employees about its amended stance on bonuses for UK staff, many of its peers, including bosses at lenders such as Deutsche Bank and Santander have also criticised the cap.

At its annual meeting on Friday, HSBC is expected to win shareholder approval to remove the two-to-one pay ratio.

Other firms are also understood to be reviewing their UK compensation practices in light of the cap’s abolition.

Many industry executives have argued that the cap actually encouraged greater risk-taking because it put smaller sums of money at risk for senior bankers.

Insiders also pointed out that because the bonus cap does not impose a limit on overall remuneration, it had placed upward pressure on salaries and allowances not linked to longer-term performance, and which could not be reduced or clawed back if failure or previous misconduct had subsequently emerged.

Responding to an enquiry from Sky News, a spokesman for Goldman said: “This approach gives us greater flexibility to manage fixed costs through the cycle and pay for performance.

“It brings the UK closer to the practice in other global financial centres, to support the UK as an attractive venue for talent.”

Goldman has often been in the vanguard of responding to changing public policy in relation to bankers’ pay.

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In 2010, it imposed a £1m pay ceiling on its UK staff after the then Labour government introduced a one-off tax on bank bonuses in response to the public outcry over the financial crisis.

Goldman’s decision to remove the two-to-one ratio comes as UK regulators also consult on the length of deferral periods for variable pay for senior bankers.

Mr Gnodde told staff on Thursday that Goldman would continue to lobby for closer global alignment on deferral periods, which would mean reducing the current UK duration from seven years.

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UK interest rates should stay higher for longer, OECD says, in boost for Bank of England strategy

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UK interest rates should stay higher for longer, OECD says, in boost for Bank of England strategy

One of the world’s leading economic authorities has warned the UK that borrowing should remain expensive until the rate of price rises eases further and stays there.

Interest rates, which are at a post-2008-era high of 5.25%, should stay there, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

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“The fiscal and monetary policy mix is adequately restrictive and should remain so until inflation returns durably to target,” the OECD’s economic outlook for 2024 said.

It’s an endorsement for the approach of the Bank of England whose statements on inflation have not indicated an imminent rate cut.

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UK forecasts

The report from the club of developed nations also said the UK economy will “remain sluggish” with gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of everything produced in the economy, this year expected to grow 0.4% and 1% in 2025.

Some good news is expected for UK workers as the OECD said there will be “stronger” wage growth when inflation is factored in against pay.

This in turn will support a “modest pick-up” in the amount households are consuming.

But the rate of price rises will continue, the OECD said, with inflation anticipated to be “elevated” at 3.3% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025 – above the Bank’s 2% target.

Such forecasts bolster the idea that rate-setters at the Bank could keep rates higher for longer to draw money out of the economy in an attempt to halt price rises.

No rate cut will come until at least August, the OECD added.

If the inflation forecasts prove to be true, the UK will not be the worst performer among the G20 group of industrialised nations. The average among that collection of countries will be 5.9% this year and 3.6% next year.

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