The UK’s economy will bounce back to pre-COVID levels by the end of 2021 despite the end of lockdown being delayed, the CBI has forecast – a year earlier than expected.
However, the business group has warned of devastation for some still-closed sectors if they are not given more support.
The CBI has upgraded its growth forecast for this year to 8.2%, helped by a spending surge fuelled by improving household incomes and savings built up during lockdowns.
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That will mean GDP bouncing back to its pre-pandemic level by the end of 2021.
The latest report said: “Despite the delay on the lifting of all lockdown restrictions for another month, the UK economy is still set for a breakthrough year.”
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It said the economy was poised for “considerable economic growth over the summer” but that “this won’t be felt as strongly by those sectors still working under restrictions”.
Britain suffered its biggest annual economic decline for 300 years in 2020, shrinking by nearly 10% thanks to the pandemic. It took a further hit at the start of this year as fresh lockdowns took their toll.
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The easing of restrictions since the spring has fuelled hopes of a strong bounce back, but there were fears that delaying the planned end of the measures on 21 June could hamper the recovery.
Confirmation of the four-week delay will mean some businesses such as pubs and restaurants must continue to operate at limited capacity, while others such as nightclubs must stay closed.
Image: Sectors such as hospitality are still being held back by restrictions
The government has offered a degree of relief by extending a moratorium on commercial landlords evicting struggling tenants into the new year.
But the Treasury has resisted making any further extension to the furlough scheme and business rates relief, which are both due to start tapering off by the end of this month.
The CBI’s forecast of 8.2% growth this year is an upgrade from its previous prediction of 6%, while it has also hiked its outlook for 2022 from 5.2% to 6.1%.
Like other forecasters, it is also scaling back its fears about the rise in unemployment.
The business group estimates that a significant part of the economy’s rebound this year will come from the government’s spending to tackle COVID-19.
But it cautions that stagnant productivity and business investment will continue to drag on the longer-term outlook.
Image: CBI director general Tony Danker said it would be devastating if some firms fail in the “last leg” of lockdown
CBI director general Tony Danker said there were “really positive signs about the economic recovery this year and next” with “pent-up demand and ambition across many sectors”.
But he added: “Clearly this does not apply to the hardest hit sectors from the pandemic who even now face continued delays and genuine challenges to stay viable.
“Extending the commercial rent moratorium will help keep some firms’ heads above water, but the government must also do the same on business rates relief.
“It would be devastating for hospitality, events or aviation businesses to fail on what we hope is the last leg of restrictions.”
The CBI has begun a search for a successor to Rupert Soames, its chairman, as it continues its recovery from the crisis which brought it to the brink of collapse in 2023.
Sky News has learnt that the business lobbying group’s nominations committee has engaged headhunters to assist with a hunt for its next corporate figurehead.
Mr Soames, the grandson of Sir Winston Churchill, was recruited by the CBI in late 2023 with the organisation lurching towards insolvency after an exodus of members.
The group’s handling of a sexual misconduct scandal saw it forced to secure emergency funding from a group of banks, even as it was frozen out of meetings with government ministers.
One prominent CBI member described Mr Soames on Thursday as the group’s “saviour”.
“Without his ability to bring members back, the organisation wouldn’t exist today,” they claimed.
Mr Soames and Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI chief executive, have partly restored its influence in Whitehall, although many doubt that it will ever be able to credibly reclaim its former status as ‘the voice of British business’.
Its next chair, who is also likely to be drawn from a leading listed company boardroom, will take over from Mr Soames early next year.
Egon Zehnder International is handling the search for the CBI.
“The CBI chair’s term typically runs for two years and Rupert Soames will end his term in early 2026,” a CBI spokesperson said.
“In line with good governance, we have begun the search for a successor to ensure continuity and a smooth transition.”
Ryanair and easyJet have cancelled hundreds of flights as a French air traffic controllers strike looms.
Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, said it had axed 170 services amid a plea by French authorities for airlines to reduce flights at Paris airports by 40% on Friday.
EasyJet said it was cancelling 274 flights during the action, which is due to begin later as part of a row over staffing numbers and ageing equipment.
The owner of British Airways, IAG, said it was planning to use larger aircraft to minimise disruption for its own passengers.
The industrial action is set to affect all flights using French airspace, leading to wider cancellations and delays across Europe and the wider world.
Ryanair said its cancellations, covering both days, would hit services to and from France, and also flights over the country to destinations such as the UK, Greece, Spain and Ireland.
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Group chief executive Michael O’Leary has campaigned for a European Union-led shake-up of air traffic control services in a bid to prevent such disruptive strikes, which have proved common in recent years.
He described the latest action as “recreational”.
Image: Michael O’Leary. Pic: Reuters
“Once again, European families are held to ransom by French air traffic controllers going on strike,” he said.
“It is not acceptable that overflights over French airspace en route to their destination are being cancelled/delayed as a result of yet another French ATC strike.
“It makes no sense and is abundantly unfair on EU passengers and families going on holidays.”
Ryanair is demanding the EU ensure that air traffic services are fully staffed for the first wave of daily departures, as well as to protect overflights during national strikes.
“These two splendid reforms would eliminate 90% of all ATC delays and cancellations, and protect EU passengers from these repeated and avoidable ATC disruptions due to yet another French ATC strike,” Mr O’Leary added.
Following his remarks, the value of the pound dropped and government borrowing costs rose, via the interest rate on both 10 and 30-year bonds.
Although market fluctuations are common, there was a reaction following Sir Keir’s comments in the Commons – signalling concern among investors of potential changes within the Treasury.
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Sterling dropped to a week-long low, hitting $1.35 for the first time since 24 June. The level, however, is still significantly higher than the vast majority of the past year, having come off the near four-year peak reached yesterday.
While a drop against the euro, took the pound to €1.15, a rate not seen since mid-April in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.
Meanwhile, the interest rate investors charge to lend money to the government, called the gilt yield, rose on both long-term (30-year) and ten-year bonds.
The UK’s benchmark 10-year gilt yield – so-called for the gilt edges that historically lined the paper they were printed on – rose to 4.67%, a high last recorded on 9 June.
And 30-year gilt yields hit 5.45%, a level not seen since 29 May.
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Ms Reeves has committed to self-imposed rules to reduce debt and balance the budget. Speculation around her future led investors to question the government’s commitment to balancing the books – and how they would do that.
The questions over her future came after the government scrapped the core money-saving component of its welfare bill, which had been intended to reduce spending in order to meet fiscal rules.