A sharp fall in demand for groceries, as pubs and restaurants reopened to indoor customers, has driven a decline in retail sales volumes.
The Office for National Statistics charted a surprise 1.4% fall in retail sales between April and May.
Economists had predicted growth of 1.6% on the back of a 9% surge the previous month following an easing of COVID-19 restrictions that released pent-up demand for goods on the high street.
The fall in grocery volumes was backed up by separate figures from Tesco, the UK’s largest supermarket chain, which noted a decline in sales for meals at home during April and May in its first quarter results statement.
Image: Tesco said it enjoyed a ‘strong performance’ overall in the three months to 29 May
The retailer, which like its rivals has been among those shielded from pandemic sales pain, still reported like-for-like UK sales growth of 0.5% over the period against the tough comparison of the same three months to May in 2020.
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Commenting on the wider performance for the retail sector as a whole, ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan, said: “
“Following a sharp increase last month coinciding with post-lockdown reopening, retail sales dipped slightly in May.
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“However, they remain well above both their pre-pandemic levels and those seen in March before shops reopened.
“Food stores sales suffered as feedback suggested the reopening of hospitality meant consumers took advantage of eating out instead.
“Household goods stores and garden centres fared well as people spent money on improving their gardens in anticipation of the summer and the lifting of restrictions on outdoor gatherings.
“As customers returned to physical stores, online sales fell in May for the third consecutive month, but remain nearly 60% higher than the level seen in February 2020.”
In Tesco’s case, it reported revenue of £12.4bn – a rise of 1.3% on a like-for-like basis compared to the first quarter last year – and said it represented growth of 8.7% by the same measure on March-May 2019.
It reported a rising contribution from its Booker wholesale operation – thanks to hospitality reopening – and said a sales decline in Ireland reflected a strong comparison with a year ago as the country entered lockdown rather than any Brexit-related hit.
Image: Tesco boss Ken Murphy
Chief executive Ken Murphy told investors: “Our profit guidance from April remains unchanged.
“While the market outlook remains uncertain, I’m pleased with the strong start we’ve made to the year and continue to be excited about the many opportunities we have to create value over the longer term.”
A note to clients by Jefferies Equity Research said of the performance: “Resilient UK industry grocery sales and notable improvements at Booker have helped Tesco enjoy two-year stacked sales growth accelerating from the already strong levels seen at the end of 20/21.
“Despite the lack of formal guidance upgrade in this sales update, the upbeat start to the year suggests that guide for 21/22 retail profits similar to 19/20 could be bettered as the year progresses.”
One of the City watchdog’s top executives is to step down after an eventful eight-year tenure in which he also applied to run Britain’s competition regulator.
Sky News has learnt that Sheldon Mills, the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) executive director, consumers and competition, is to leave in the coming months.
Mr Mills, who joined the FCA in 2018, is understood to have been asked to lead a review of the growing use of artificial intelligence in the delivery of financial advice to consumers after he steps down.
His departure from one of the UK’s most powerful economic regulators is understood to have been communicated to FCA employees late last week.
Mr Mills, who has also chaired Stonewall, the LGBTQ+ charity, is said to have been on a leave of absence for much of the last 12 months.
The FCA website says his executive duties are “currently being covered by Sarah Pritchard and David Geale, Managing Director, [Payment Systems Regulator]”.
Insiders said the financial services watchdog would shortly advertise for a new executive director of markets, Ms Pritchard’s former role.
The shake-up comes months after Nikhil Rathi, the FCA chief executive, was appointed to a second five-year term by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor.
Ministers have been pressing Britain’s main economic regulators this year to adopt growth-oriented policies and remove red tape for businesses as the economy struggles.
The owner of the Daily Mail is in talks to buy the Daily Telegraph and its Sunday sister title for £500m, a deal that would finally end the more-than two-year hiatus over their future.
In a statement, DMGT said the exclusivity period to combine the two national newspaper groups would be used to “finalise the terms of the transaction and to prepare the necessary regulatory submissions”.
A deal to combine the Mail and Telegraph titles will require scrutiny from the competition regulator, with the culture secretary, Lisa Nandy, also expected to be involved in the process.
The collapse of the RedBird-led deal came after opposition from within the Telegraph’s newsroom over reported links of its chairman, John Thornton, to influential Chinese state actors.
Lord Rothermere, DMGT’s controlling shareholder, had intended to acquire a minority stake of just under 10% in the Telegraph titles as part of the RedBird-led consortium.
An earlier deal proposed by a consortium including RedBird and the Abu Dhabi state-owned investment firm IMI collapsed after the government changed the law regarding foreign state ownership of national newspapers.
IMI was to have owned a 15% stake – the maximum permitted – under the more recent deal.
“I have long admired the Daily Telegraph,” Lord Rothermere said.
“My family and I have an enduring love of newspapers and for the journalists who make them.
“The Daily Telegraph is Britain’s largest and best quality broadsheet newspaper, and I have grown up respecting it.
“It has a remarkable history and has played a vital role in shaping Britain’s national debate over many decades.
“Chris Evans is an excellent editor, and we intend to give him the resources to invest in the newsroom.
“Under our ownership, the Daily Telegraph will become a global brand, just as the Daily Mail has.”
A spokesman for RedBird IMI said: “DMGT and RedBird IMI have worked swiftly to reach the agreement announced today, which will shortly be submitted to the Secretary of State.”
If the deal is completed, it would bring the Telegraph newspapers under the same stable of ownership as titles including Metro, The i Paper and New Scientist.
DMGT said it planned “to invest substantially in TMG [Telegraph Media Group] with the aim of accelerating its international expansion.
“It will focus particularly on the USA, where the Daily Mail is already successful, with established editorial and commercial operations.”
Households and businesses will have to wait for energy bills to fall significantly because “there’s no shortcut” to bringing down prices, the energy minister has told Sky News.
Speaking as Chancellor Rachel Reeves considers ways of easing the pressure on households in next week’s budget, energy minister Michael Shanks conceded that Labour’s election pledge to cut bills by £300 by converting the UK to clean power has not been delivered.
It comes as Ofgem announced the average annual energy bill will rise by 0.2% in January, despite wholesale costs falling.
Major forecasters Cornwall Insight had predicted a 1% drop – but the energy regulator has moved in the opposite direction. Between January and March, the typical annual dual fuel bill will be £1,758 – up from the current £1,755 cap.
The UK has the second-highest domestic and the highest industrial electricity prices among developed nations, despite renewable sources providing more than 50% of UK electricity last year.
“The truth is, we do have to build that infrastructure in order to remove the volatility of fossil fuels from people’s bills,” Mr Shanks said.
“We obviously hope that that will happen as quickly as possible, but there’s no shortcut to this, and there’s not an easy solution to building the clean power system that brings down bills.”
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His comments come amid growing scepticism about the compatibility of cutting bills as well as carbon emissions, and growing evidence that the government’s pursuit of a clean power grid by 2030 is contributing to higher bills.
While wholesale gas prices have fallen from their peak following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, energy bills remain around 35% higher than before the war, inflated by the rising cost of reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
The price of subsidising offshore wind and building and managing the grid has increased sharply, driven by supply chain inflation and the rising cost of financing major capital projects.
In response, the government has had to increase the maximum price it will pay for offshore wind by more than 10% in the latest renewables auction, and extend price guarantees from 15 years to 20.
The auction concludes early next year, but it’s possible it could see the price of new wind power set higher than the current average wholesale cost of electricity, primarily set by gas.
Renewable subsidies and network costs make up more than a third of bills and are set to grow. The cost of new nuclear power generation will be added to bills from January.
The government has also increased so-called social costs funded through bills, including the warm home discount, a £150 payment made to around six million of the least-affluent households.
Gas remains central to the UK’s power network, with around 50 active gas-fired power stations underpinning an increasingly renewable grid, and is also crucial to pricing.
Because of the way the energymarket works, wholesale gas sets the price for all sources of electricity, the majority of the time.
At Connah’s Quay, a gas-fired power station run by the German state-owned energy company Uniper on the Dee estuary in north Wales, four giant turbines, each capable of powering 300,000 homes, are fired up on demand when the grid needs them.
Energy boss: Remove policy costs from bills
Because renewables are intermittent, the UK will need to maintain and pay for a full gas network, even when renewables make up the majority of generation, and we use it a fraction of the time.
“The fundamental problem is we cannot store electricity in very large volumes, and so we have to have these plants ready to generate when customers need it,” says Michael Lewis, chief executive of Uniper.
“You’re paying for hundreds of hours when they are not used, but they’re still there and they’re ready to go at a moment’s notice.”
Image: Michael Lewis, chief executive of Uniper
He agrees that shifting away from gas will ultimately reduce costs, but there are measures the government can take in the short term.
“We have quite a lot of policy costs on our energy bills in the UK, for instance, renewables incentives, a warm home discount and other taxes. If we remove those from energy bills and put them into general taxation, that will have a big dampening effect on energy prices, but fundamentally it is about gas.”
The chancellor is understood to be considering a range of options to cut bills in the short term, including shifting some policy costs and green levies from bills into general taxation, as well as cutting VAT.
Stubbornly high energy bills have already fractured the political consensus on net zero among the major parties.
Under Kemi Badenoch, the Conservatives have reversed a policy introduced by Theresa May. Shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho, who held the post in the last Conservative government, explained why: “Net zero is now forcing people to make decisions which are making people poorer. And that’s not what people signed up to.
“So when it comes to energy bills, we know that they’re going up over the next five years to pay for green levies.
“We are losing jobs to other countries, industry is going, and that not only is a bad thing for our country, but it also is a bad thing for climate change.”
Image: Claire Coutinho tells Sky News net zero is ‘making people poorer’
Reform UK, meanwhile, have made opposition to net zero a central theme.
“No more renewables,” says Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice. “They’ve been a catastrophe… that’s the reason why we’ve got the highest electricity prices in the developed world because of the scandal and the lies told about renewables.
“They haven’t made our energy cheaper, they haven’t brought down the bills.”
Mr Shanks says his opponents are wrong and insists renewables remain the only long-term choice: “The cost of subsidy is increasing because of the global cost of building things, but it’s still significantly cheaper than it would be to build gas.
“And look, there’s a bigger argument here, that we’re all still paying the price of the volatility of fossil fuels. And in the past 50 years, more than half of the economic shocks this country’s faced have been the direct result of fossil fuel crises across the world.”