Seasonal viruses and COVID-19 could leave NHS ‘unable to cope’ this winter, scientists warn

Published

3 years ago

July 14, 2021

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As many as 60,000 people could die from flu this winter and a combination of seasonal viruses and COVID-19 could leave the NHS “unable to cope”, according to a report.

The stark warning was made by scientists who say the flu season could be particularly deadly but the enhanced flu jab programme and rapid tests for flu could help to mitigate the risks.

COVID-19 restrictions meant that many respiratory viruses were not able to spread last winter as they normally would and this has concerned some virologists who say population immunity to seasonal respiratory illnesses might be compromised.

As people socialise more these viruses will spread again.

The new report from the Academy of Medical Sciences says flu and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) hospital admissions and deaths could be twice that seen in a “normal” year and could coincide with an increase in COVID-19 infections.

Professor Sir Stephen Holgate, chair of the Expert Advisory Group which wrote the report, said: “There are four main challenges: firstly a surge in respiratory viruses could cause wide-spread ill health and put pressure on the NHS.

“Secondly, we’re dealing with a third wave of COVID-19 and multiple outbreaks and the NHS has got to catch up with the backlog that it has accumulated over the last 15 months or so, and that’s going to be a real challenge.

“Thirdly, the NHS is already under pressure, so is likely not to be able to cope with these winter challenges going forward.

“Finally the worse physical and mental health within the UK population due to the pandemic.”

He added: “Society as a whole will have learned from the last 15 months that it isn’t acceptable that (we had) all these respiratory viruses washing around in the winter and nearly closing our National Health Service.

“If there are things we should do top prevent transmission we should do that. Even if it means wearing masks and respecting each other’s space.”

He added: “We really do deserve to have a change in the way we operate as a society to stop the annual continual pressure on the health service created by all these viruses and that just means a change in behaviour.”

And due to the current wave of infections the NHS could face difficulties trying to catch up on the backlog of care – with more than five million people in England on the waiting list.

The report highlights other problems that the health service faces going into winter including staff shortages and reduced bed capacity.

On top of this, people putting off seeking help for illness could also lead to a rise in support needed for conditions such as asthma, heart attack and stroke this winter.

They also called for the expansion of COVID-19 testing to also include tests for flu and RSV – for instance if GPs were able to quickly confirm whether a patient has flu they would be able to prescribe their antiviral medication sooner which means that the person’s illness would be reduced, and lessen the burden on the NHS.

Professor Dame Anne Johnson, president of the Academy of Medical Sciences and Expert Advisory Group member, added: “We’re not saying we’re about to have the worst winter ever, we’re saying we have got a bunch of uncertain things that could hit us in winter that we need to think about mitigating now.”

She added: “I hope we will take forward some of these behavioural changes as a society. When you’re sick, stay out of the way because that’s actually when you’re most infectious, get your test – if you have got COVID you need to continue with that careful self isolation.”

Dame Anne said that the flu figures are “uncertain” and the 60,000 figure is an “an unlikely worst case scenarios”, adding” flu is horribly unpredictable”.

Professor Azra Ghani, Expert Advisory Group member, added: “We have never experienced this type of thing where society has really shut down and really reduced transmission to this extent. It’s very difficult to know what impact this will have.

“It’s really just a warning to say ‘we can do something about this , this isn’t an inevitable, we can put measures in place and reduce the impact’.”

The report’s authors think the flu season could come earlier than usual because of the lack of immunity but say this could actually be beneficial as there is more pressure on the NHS further into the winter.

Sir Patrick Vallance commissioned the report to examine the challenges facing the NHS this winter.

In addition to a deadly winter flu surge the study warned the health service is already under pressure and will struggle to cope with these additional winter challenges as it faced a shortage of beds and trained staff.

But the reports authors stressed the predictions are based on a worst case scenario with no interventions.

A faster vaccine rollout, the autumn booster campaign and increased testing capacity for COVID and flu will help significantly in reducing the impact of these extra pressures on the NHS.

UK

Dr Yaser Jabbar: Mother says daughter, 11, had to use wheelchair after procedure with surgeon accused of ‘inappropriate’ operations

Published

11 hours ago

September 13, 2024

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Dr Yaser Jabbar: Mother says daughter, 11, had to use wheelchair after procedure with surgeon accused of 'inappropriate' operations

The mother of a young girl treated by a surgeon accused of carrying out “inappropriate and unnecessary” operations has told Sky News her daughter had to use a wheelchair for nearly two years after surgery.

Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH) has launched an investigation into the cases of 721 children after an expert review found Dr Yaser Jabbar was alleged to have caused “serious harm” through “unacceptable” treatment, according to a lawyer acting for families of some of the young patients.

Now Claire Osborne, whose daughter Ella underwent corrective surgery on her leg by Dr Jabber in the summer of 2020, has called on a 2023 expert report by the Royal College of Surgeons to be made public.

It comes as Duabi’s CMC Hospital – where Dr Jabbar has recently worked – confirmed it had suspended the surgeon.

Ella was 11 years old when she had the operation under Dr Jabbar after she developed a condition called genu valgum, in which the knees tilt inward while the ankles remain apart. She also has multiple complex needs.

She had already undergone the same corrective procedure with a different doctor, but her recovery after the second operation was more painful and took longer.

“She just kept saying to me all the time, ‘Mum, it hurts, it hurts’. And the way she was walking was so strange. It was like her knees were overlapping and they were clicking for every step she took,” Ms Osborne said.

“At one point she would do 10 miles on the bike and it got to the point where she couldn’t even walk around a supermarket with me.”

Ella was also forced to rely on a wheelchair during this time, and Ms Osborne and her husband could also feel a screw from a plate inserted in Ella’s leg through her skin.

“Ella was just so miserable. She was in pain. You can feel it as a parent – you know how a child is normally and you know when there’s something wrong.”

Ms Osborne says she consistently raised concerns about her daughter’s recovery, with Dr Jabbar telling her in a follow-up appointment: “If I’m not worried, you shouldn’t be worried.”

After consulting a private surgeon, Ms Osborne asked for a second opinion, and soon after Ella had a third corrective surgery by another doctor at Great Ormond Street.

Ms Osborne said that the surgeon “called it a miraculous correction”.

“What she did, the angle at which she corrected Ella’s leg, was huge.”

Now, Ms Osborne is calling for a 2023 Royal College of Surgeons review – conducted before the review in which Ella’s initial operation was one of 721 cases examined – to be made public.

“Without knowing facts, without knowing what, why, where, when you’re still kind of in limbo. Because this report’s out there. You know, it says things, but you don’t know what,” she said.

“It’s frustrating because obviously if the hospital had known that things were going on prior to Ella being treated, maybe Ella could have been saved.

“Without knowing what the hospital knew from the report, we’ll never know.”

Of the 42 cases looked at as part of the GOSH probe so far, 22 children are believed to have come to harm as a result of operations Dr Jabbar carried out.

Ms Osborne has now set up a support group for other families who have been affected.

Amy Kirk, an associate at Fletchers Solicitors – a firm that is representing some of the families involved – said: “It’s really important the review is given to the families in full as they are already not feeling heard [and that] the report is released in a timely fashion and that a full investigation is done.

A spokesperson for Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children said: “We know that the patients and families affected will be extremely distressed by the issues raised by the review we commissioned into our orthopedic service.

“This is not what they should expect from any service at our hospital. To all of them we wish to say we are deeply sorry.

“As we complete case reviews, the outcomes of these will be shared with the patient and their family, regardless of whether harm has been found or not.

“As we have said previously, we will share a summary of the report in our public board, but we will be sharing it first with our families.”

Dr Jabbar, who qualified from St George’s Hospital Medical School in London, was registered with a licence to practise until January of this year, according to the General Medical Council website.

GOSH said he had not worked there since 2022. The Sunday Times reported he only stepped down from his role last September after an 11-month sabbatical on full pay.

UK

Jay Blades: The Repair Shop presenter charged with controlling and coercive behaviour against estranged wife

Published

12 hours ago

September 13, 2024

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Jay Blades: The Repair Shop presenter charged with controlling and coercive behaviour against estranged wife

The Repair Shop presenter Jay Blades has been charged with controlling and coercive behaviour against his estranged wife.

The alleged behaviour includes physical and emotional abuse, according to court documents.

The 54-year-old appeared at Kidderminster Magistrates’ Court earlier and was bailed to appear at Worcester Crown Court next month.

Blades married fitness instructor Lisa Zbozen in November 2022, but in May she said she was “broken” after grabbing a bag of things and leaving home.

West Mercia Police said he was charged on Thursday after they were called to an address on 3 May, the day after Ms Zbozen ‘s Instagram post, and began an investigation.

Blades – a furniture restorer – is the face of the popular BBC show, which features people having treasured objects repaired and rejuvenated.

The Repair Shop first aired in 2017 and its 14th series is due to air later this year.

His other TV work includes Britain’s Best Beach Huts and David and Jay’s Touring Tool Shed, alongside Sir David Jason

The BBC said a repeat of the latter show had been dropped from Friday’s schedule.

Blades was raised by his mother on a council estate in Hackney in east London, according to his website.

It says he left school with no qualifications before studying criminology and then finding his “true vocation in restoration and supporting vulnerable people”.

Blades announced a break from social media at the end of April – and said he would be getting therapy – after posting that his uncle had been murdered.

However, he returned in June for an Instagram post to honour his grandmother and aunt as part of the Windrush generation.

UK

Russia expels six British diplomats from Moscow for ‘spying and sabotage’

Published

15 hours ago

September 13, 2024

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Russia expels six British diplomats from Moscow for 'spying and sabotage'

Six British diplomats have been expelled from Russia after being accused of “spying and sabotage”.

The country’s FSB security service said they worked in the “political department” of the British embassy in Moscow.

A Foreign Office spokesperson called the claims “completely baseless”.

Ukraine war latest: Putin threatens NATO with ‘war’ over long-range missiles

They said the diplomats’ had been expelled in August “following action taken by the UK government in response to Russian state-directed activity across Europe and in the UK”.

“We are unapologetic about protecting our national interests,” the spokesperson added.

The FSB claimed the Eastern Europe and Central Asia branch of the Foreign Office was now a “special service whose main task is to inflict a strategic defeat on our country”.

News of the expulsion comes as President Vladimir Putin warned against Ukraine getting approval to use Western-supplied long-range missiles against Russia.

He said it would “significantly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict” and “mean that NATO countries, US, European countries are at war with Russia“.

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden will meet in Washington on Friday with a decision on approving the missiles believed to be imminent.

On the plane to the US, Sir Keir said Britain did not “seek any conflict with Russia”.

“Russia started this conflict. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia could end this conflict straight away,” he told reporters.

“Ukraine has the right to self-defence and we’ve obviously been absolutely fully supportive of Ukraine’s right to self-defence – we’re providing training capability, as you know,” said the prime minister

“But we don’t seek any conflict with Russia – that’s not our intention in the slightest.”

Kremlin ‘punishes’ UK – but timing of announcement is interesting

Deborah Haynes

Security and Defence Editor

@haynesdeborah

The very public expulsion by Russia of six British diplomats in Moscow, accused of involvement in spying and sabotage, is a way for the Kremlin to punish London.

Revoking the accreditation of diplomats is a tool that all countries can use to attack each other or send signals of anger.

The UK expelled almost two dozen Russia officials in London, accused of spying, in the wake of the novichok nerve agent poisoning of Sergei Skripal, the former Russian double agent, and his daughter Yulia in 2018.

This triggered a tit-for tat rejection of some British officials at the embassy in Moscow.

In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there have been further expulsions by the UK and – in much greater numbers – other European allies.

In May of this year, Britain announced it was expelling Russia’s defence attache, accusing him of being an “undeclared military intelligence officer” amid concerns about what the UK described as a campaign of “malign activity” by Moscow across the UK and Europe.

The Kremlin retaliated by expelling the British defence attache from Moscow.

The most recent expulsions of UK diplomats are thought to be linked to these escalating tensions as opposed to having anything to do with the UK support for Ukraine.

However, the timing of the publication of the decision by Russian state media on Friday is interesting.

It comes as the UK and the US are weighing up whether to allow Ukraine to use their long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia – a move that President Putin has said would be regarded as Western allies directly joining the war against Russia.

Sir Keir Starmer and Joe Biden are due to meeting Washington on Friday with a decision of green-lighting the use of UK-French Storm Shadow cruise missiles thought to be imminent.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has for months been asking permission to fire long-range Storm Shadow missiles, as well as US-made ATACMS missiles, into Russia to limit its ability to launch attacks.

The dial may now have shifted after the US accused Russia of taking delivery of ballistic missiles from Iran, against the warnings of the West.

US secretary of state Antony Blinken called it a “dramatic escalation”.

President Biden has previously limited the distance US-provided missiles can be fired across the border amid concerns over an escalation.

Five weeks ago, Ukraine also launched an incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region in a bid to gain an advantage in the war and divert Russian troops from Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

President Zelenskyy said on Thursday Russia had started a “counteroffensive action” in Kursk, but that Ukrainian forces had anticipated it and were ready to fight.

Russia’s defence ministry said 10 settlements had been recaptured.