Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak have, it is reported, agreed to pay for long term reform of social care by raising national insurance by a penny in the pound for both employers and employees.
The move would raise an estimated £10bn annually.
The government is braced for unease among its backbenchers because the Conservatives promised not to raise income tax or national insurance in their election-winning 2019 manifesto.
It perhaps ought not to be too worried about that. The prime minister can always point to the crisis in social care and the need, more broadly, to repair the public finances after the COVID-19 pandemic.
The chancellor, meanwhile, can point out that one of his predecessors, Gordon Brown, did something similar in his April 2002 budget. Having pledged not to raise income taxes in Labour’s election-winning 2001 manifesto, Mr Brown broke the spirit of that promise, slapping more than 4 million workers with a 1% increase in national insurance.
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The risk of breaking an election promise is the least of the problems with this proposal.
For a start, the move will perpetuate the myth that national insurance is some kind of special safety net, hypothecated to pay for pensions, unemployment benefits and other elements of the welfare state such as the NHS.
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It is remarkable how many people still believe this when, for many years, national insurance has simply been income tax by another name.
Yes, there is something called the National Insurance Fund, but essentially it is a government accounting wheeze.
The money raised in national insurance contributions is insufficient to pay for the benefits and public services that many people think they do. It just disappears, effectively, into the government’s coffers and is spent in the same way that revenues from income tax, VAT and corporation tax are spent.
Because the UK state pension system is a so-called ‘pay as you go’ system, the national insurance paid by today’s workers pays the pensions of today’s pensioners, not their own.
This misunderstanding of national insurance may be precisely why the government is proposing going to go down this route.
Image: The Treasury risks hurting those worst affected financially by the COVID crisis through any rise in NI contributions
Polling suggests people are happier paying national insurance rather than income tax because they genuinely appear to believe they are getting something, a benefit, for doing so.
It is why chancellors down the years have reached for national insurance as their favoured stealth tax. In 1979, national insurance receipts were equal to half of income tax receipts. This year, according to the Treasury, they will be equal to roughly three-quarters of income tax receipts.
There are also other problems with this proposal.
One is that it exacerbates intergenerational unfairness. Unlike income tax, workers of state pension age do not pay national insurance on their earnings, so the hike will fall entirely on younger workers.
Moreover, because national insurance – unlike income tax – is levied only on earnings, rather than other sources of income, such as interest on savings, the cost of this measure will fall disproportionately on younger people rather than older ones.
In other words, having made sacrifices throughout the pandemic to protect older people, younger people will again be paying through their earnings for a benefit that will benefit older people rather than themselves.
This move, then, may deepen the problems the Conservatives have with younger voters.
An explicit aim of reforming social care is to prevent people having to sell their homes to pay for such care. Younger people, unable to buy a home in the first place, may wonder why they are being asked to pay higher national insurance contributions so that others may keep theirs.
Others will criticise the lack of progressivity in this proposal.
All workers (other than those earning more than £100,000 annually and who do not benefit from the personal allowance) can earn up to £12,570 before they have to start paying income tax. By contrast, national insurance kicks in as soon as a worker has earned £9,568.
Accordingly, a wealthy pensioner living off a generous final salary pension or on income from their savings and dividends will not be paying this proposed hike, but a low-paid worker earning just £184 per week will be.
Another major problem with this proposal is the unwanted consequences it will have. Taxes, by their nature, reduce the activity on which they are levied. It is why chancellors tax smoking heavily.
Because this proposed national insurance will fall on employers, as well as employees, it will make the cost of hiring someone more expensive.
Higher payroll taxes mean fewer people in work and, potentially, lower growth. It is why, in response to Mr Brown’s national insurance hike in 2002, the then-Conservative leader, Iain Duncan-Smith, called the move a “tax on jobs”.
Image: Gordon Brown introduced an extra tier of National Insurance in 2002
So, too, did David Cameron and George Osborne when Mr Brown ordered his chancellor, Alistair Darling, to announce a 1% rise in national insurance in March 2010 to pay for the financial crisis. Mr Darling had wanted to increase VAT instead. Mr Brown’s decision ensured Labour had barely any support from business in that year’s general election.
So, to conclude, what the PM is proposing is a tax increase that will disproportionately hit younger and low-paid workers while making it harder for employers to hire people.
Or, as Nick Macpherson, the former permanent secretary at the Treasury, put it on Twitter: “Rentiers and trustafarians won’t have to pay a penny. And the low paid young will subsidise the wealthy old. Higher spending does require higher taxes. But national insurance is a regressive tax on jobs.”
Sir Alan Bates has told Sky News that the government’s new Capture Redress Scheme is “half-baked”.
The Post Office scandal campaigner, who may also be a victim of Capture, accused officials of not learning lessons from previous compensation failures.
Capture was a piece of faulty computer software used in about 2,500 branches between 1992 and 1999 before the infamous Horizon scandal.
Many sub-postmasters made up potentially false accounting shortfalls from their own pocket, with dozens, at least, convicted of stealing.
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Sir Alan Bates reaches settlement with govt
Sir Alan welcomed the launch of the first ever Capture Redress Scheme last week “in general”.
However, he added: “It does seem to have gone off half-baked with almost none of the lessons that should have been learnt from the failures of the other Postmaster Schemes having been applied when compiling it.”
Sir Alan Bates, who has settled his redress claim with the government in connection with Horizon, also confirmed he may have been a victim of Capture.
He said: “I have documentation which shows that a PC running Capture was part of the inventory when we purchased our sub-post office and I know it was used until it was replaced by the infamous Horizon system toward the end of 2000.”
Despite this, Sir Alan said that – with the information he has about the scheme and making a claim – “it does seem I may not be able submit one”.
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Will Post Office victims be cleared?
Under the current rules, it appears claimants must submit a fully itemised claim before the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) will decide if they qualify – a process Sir Alan described as “mad”.
“We could spend a year compiling a claim only for the DBT to say we weren’t eligible in the first place.”
He called for a two-stage process: first to confirm eligibility, then to allow victims to build their case with legal support – a model he says would save time, money and avoid unnecessary legal costs.
The revelation that Sir Alan may have been a Capture victim – and didn’t realise until later on – raises fresh concerns about how many others remain unaware.
In a statement to Sky News, a government spokesperson said: “After over two decades of fighting for justice, victims will finally receive redress for being impacted by the Capture software and we pay tribute to all of those who have worked to expose this scandal.
“All eligible applicants will receive an interim payment of £10,000. In exceptional circumstances, the independent panel can award above £300,000, which is not a cap.
“We have been in contact with Sir Alan’s legal representative and stand ready to provide further information to help all claimants.”
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‘This waiting is just unbearable’
It comes as documents seen by Sky News suggest that the Post Office knew about faults in Capture computer software before it was rolled out in 1992.
Notes from a meeting of “the Capture steering group” held in February – months before the system was introduced to branches – described files as being “corrupted”.
It highlighted that: “If the power was switched off when a file was open it would be corrupted. In this situation data should be checked and reinput.”
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‘All we want is her name cleared’
Another fault mentioned in the meeting notes was if “part of the system was closed early, to produce client summaries any additional transactions might not be captured for that day”.
“If a high error rate was detected the software would need to be reworked.”
A document called “Capture Troubleshooting Guide” from April 1993 – over a year after the steering group noted faults – again described “corrupt data” such as incorrect transaction values.
It concluded that the “cause” of this was “switching off the computer or a power cut (even if only for a few seconds) whilst in the Capture programme”.
It also put forward instructions to remedy the fault.
Rupert Lloyd-Thomas, campaigner for Capture victims, said: “The Post Office knew … in 1992, long before the launch, that Capture could be zapped by a power cut.
Steve Marston, who was convicted of stealing from his Post Office branch in 1998 after using Capture, said the information “didn’t come as any surprise”.
“They’ve known since the very beginning it should never have been released,” he added.
A Post Office spokesperson said: “We have been very concerned about the reported problems relating to the use of the Capture software and are sincerely sorry for past failings that have caused suffering to postmasters.
“In September 2024, Kroll published an independent report which examined the Capture software that was used in some Post Office branches in the 1990s and we fully co-operated with Kroll throughout their investigation.
“We are determined that past wrongs are put right and are continuing to support the government’s work in this area.
“Post Office has very limited records relating to this system and we encourage anyone who has Capture related material to share it with Post Office and the Criminal Cases Review Commission.”
The proposed £1.6bn takeover of a big chunk of ITV by Sky would be the biggest consolidation in British broadcasting in more than 20 years, and reflects fundamental changes in viewing habits and commercial realities.
For Sky, a deal that brings together Ant and Dec with Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher would make it the UK’s largest commercial broadcaster, and strengthen its hand in the battle with US streaming giants that have upended the entertainment business.
For ITV’s shareholders, who have seen the value of their investment decline as advertising revenue, like viewers, has migrated online, it may be a chance to say, “I own a terrestrial broadcaster, get me out of here.”
Neither Sky or ITV would publicly discuss who made the initial offer, and both stress that talks are at an early stage, but privately, both sides emphasise the mutual opportunity.
For Sky, owned by US giant Comcast since 2018, there is the opportunity to create a larger pool of content and subscribers.
The deal would see it acquire ITV’s media and entertainment business, including its free-to-air channels and public sector broadcaster (PSB) licence, which runs to 2034, as well as the ITVX streaming platform, which has 40 million registered users.
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Image: Ant and Dec host I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here! on ITV Pic: ITV
The ITV brand is likely to be retained, and the two companies run separately, but Sky would look to leverage its commercial and technology strengths.
ITV’s PSB licence includes the requirement that ITV’s app be “available, prominent and easily accessible” on online platforms, a crucial shop window as viewers access content directly.
Added to Sky’s existing 13 million subscribers for largely pay-walled content in the UK, it would add muscle as the broadcaster competes for attention, subscription revenue and advertiser spend.
The acquisition would be a restatement of commitment to Sky from Comcast. Having paid £31bn for Sky in a bidding war with Disney seven years ago, it wrote down that investment by more than £6bn in 2022, and earlier this year announced the sale of Sky Deutschland.
While it is navigating the conclusion of exclusivity deals with content providers, including with HBO that gave it rights to hits including Succession, the £5bn renewal of Premier League rights this season underlined the centrality of sport to Sky’s offer.
Image: Sky would bring its own content and rights, such as those for Premier League football, to the table. Pic: PA
Scale matters because even companies as prominent in the UK as Sky and ITV are competing with giants, both for audiences and advertisers.
Netflix has 301 million subscribers worldwide and annual revenues approaching $40bn. Amazon, the largest retailer in the world, is now an entertainment content provider. In the US, Warner Bros. Discovery is considering a sale, having already rejected reported offers worth more than $60bn.
Google and Meta, meanwhile, gobble up to 60% of all UK advertising spend, a shift in the last decade that has hit ITV particularly hard.
Image: US platforms dominate the streaming space. Pic: iStock
When it was founded 70 years ago, the third channel was the only way advertisers could reach television viewers. Today, it and Sky are competing for a slice of a shrinking pie, with one source citing an estimate that their combined UK advertising revenue is nine times smaller than Google and Meta’s.
Any proposed deal will face regulatory scrutiny from Ofcom and the Competition and Markets Authority, but both parties will argue that these commercial realities mean consolidation would strengthen the broadcast sector rather than weaken it.
ITV still generates critical and commercial hits and live moments. Last year, the largest audiences for sport (England’s Euro 2024 semi-final), drama (Mr Bates v the Post Office) and entertainment (I’m a Celebrity) were all on ITV.
Translating that into a commercial model that satisfies investors has proved difficult, with the general drift of the UK economy not helping. The 19% bump in the share price on news of the proposed takeover may be a welcome series finale.
Elon Musk could be on track for a $1trn (£761bn) pay package – if Tesla meets a series of extremely ambitious targets over the next 10 years.
The world’s richest man has the potential to become a trillionaire after the controversial plans were approved by 75% of the company’s shareholders.
It would be the largest corporate pay package in history.
However, it won’t be easy. As part of the agreement, Musk will need to deliver 20 million Tesla vehicles over the next decade – more than double the number churned out over the past 12 years.
He will be tasked with dramatically increasing the company’s valuation and operating profits.
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Musk closer to trillionaire status
Another requirement is for Tesla to roll out one million AI-powered robots – despite the fact it hasn’t released a single one so far.
Musk will also need to come up with a succession plan on who will replace him as the chief executive of Tesla.
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As each step is successfully completed, he will receive more company shares and his ownership stake will rise – potentially from 13% now to almost 29%.
And even if Musk falls short of some of these targets, he could end up earning a lot of money.
Figures from Forbes magazine suggest the 54-year-old already has a net worth of $493bn (£375bn) – and while that means he has more money than anyone else on the planet, he isn’t the richest person in history… yet.
That title belongs to John D Rockefeller, the railroad titan who had a wealth of $630bn (£480bn) back in 1913 – when adjusted for inflation.
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The X Effect
Why?
Now is the moment Tesla wants to innovate, develop into robotics, self-driving and embrace the growth of artificial intelligence (AI).
It’s seeking a visionary leader to spearhead this move. And a lot of Tesla’s market value is tied up in this ambition.
Tesla’s board of directors, who oversee the management of the business, are adamant that only Musk can make the lofty ambitions a reality.
Some believe there’s no one else like Musk.
More shares in the company are “critical to keep Musk at the helm to lead Tesla through the most critical time in the company’s history”, said financial services firm Wedbush.
“We believe this was the smart move by the board to lay out these incentives/pay package at this key time as the biggest asset for Tesla is Musk … and with the AI revolution, this is a crucial time for Tesla ahead with autonomous and robotics front and centre.”
Major investor advice firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) warned the 10-year pay agreement reduces the board’s ability “to meaningfully adjust future pay levels in the event of unforeseen events or changes in either the performance or strategic focus of the company over the next decade”.
In a note, ISS said: “The high value of each tranche could also potentially undermine Musk’s desire to achieve all goals and create significant value for shareholders”, and that the goals “lack precision”.
Musk has described ISS and another major adviser, Glass Lewis, as “corporate terrorists”.
There was speculation he would walk away from the business if the package was not agreed on.