A national insurance hike to boost social care would be built on a misunderstanding

Published

3 years ago

July 20, 2021

admin

Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak have, it is reported, agreed to pay for long term reform of social care by raising national insurance by a penny in the pound for both employers and employees.

The move would raise an estimated £10bn annually.

The government is braced for unease among its backbenchers because the Conservatives promised not to raise income tax or national insurance in their election-winning 2019 manifesto.

It perhaps ought not to be too worried about that. The prime minister can always point to the crisis in social care and the need, more broadly, to repair the public finances after the COVID-19 pandemic.

The chancellor, meanwhile, can point out that one of his predecessors, Gordon Brown, did something similar in his April 2002 budget. Having pledged not to raise income taxes in Labour’s election-winning 2001 manifesto, Mr Brown broke the spirit of that promise, slapping more than 4 million workers with a 1% increase in national insurance.

The risk of breaking an election promise is the least of the problems with this proposal.

For a start, the move will perpetuate the myth that national insurance is some kind of special safety net, hypothecated to pay for pensions, unemployment benefits and other elements of the welfare state such as the NHS.

It is remarkable how many people still believe this when, for many years, national insurance has simply been income tax by another name.

Yes, there is something called the National Insurance Fund, but essentially it is a government accounting wheeze.

The money raised in national insurance contributions is insufficient to pay for the benefits and public services that many people think they do. It just disappears, effectively, into the government’s coffers and is spent in the same way that revenues from income tax, VAT and corporation tax are spent.

Because the UK state pension system is a so-called ‘pay as you go’ system, the national insurance paid by today’s workers pays the pensions of today’s pensioners, not their own.

This misunderstanding of national insurance may be precisely why the government is proposing going to go down this route.

Polling suggests people are happier paying national insurance rather than income tax because they genuinely appear to believe they are getting something, a benefit, for doing so.

It is why chancellors down the years have reached for national insurance as their favoured stealth tax. In 1979, national insurance receipts were equal to half of income tax receipts. This year, according to the Treasury, they will be equal to roughly three-quarters of income tax receipts.

There are also other problems with this proposal.

One is that it exacerbates intergenerational unfairness. Unlike income tax, workers of state pension age do not pay national insurance on their earnings, so the hike will fall entirely on younger workers.

Moreover, because national insurance – unlike income tax – is levied only on earnings, rather than other sources of income, such as interest on savings, the cost of this measure will fall disproportionately on younger people rather than older ones.

In other words, having made sacrifices throughout the pandemic to protect older people, younger people will again be paying through their earnings for a benefit that will benefit older people rather than themselves.

This move, then, may deepen the problems the Conservatives have with younger voters.

An explicit aim of reforming social care is to prevent people having to sell their homes to pay for such care. Younger people, unable to buy a home in the first place, may wonder why they are being asked to pay higher national insurance contributions so that others may keep theirs.

Others will criticise the lack of progressivity in this proposal.

All workers (other than those earning more than £100,000 annually and who do not benefit from the personal allowance) can earn up to £12,570 before they have to start paying income tax. By contrast, national insurance kicks in as soon as a worker has earned £9,568.

Accordingly, a wealthy pensioner living off a generous final salary pension or on income from their savings and dividends will not be paying this proposed hike, but a low-paid worker earning just £184 per week will be.

Another major problem with this proposal is the unwanted consequences it will have. Taxes, by their nature, reduce the activity on which they are levied. It is why chancellors tax smoking heavily.

Because this proposed national insurance will fall on employers, as well as employees, it will make the cost of hiring someone more expensive.

Higher payroll taxes mean fewer people in work and, potentially, lower growth. It is why, in response to Mr Brown’s national insurance hike in 2002, the then-Conservative leader, Iain Duncan-Smith, called the move a “tax on jobs”.

So, too, did David Cameron and George Osborne when Mr Brown ordered his chancellor, Alistair Darling, to announce a 1% rise in national insurance in March 2010 to pay for the financial crisis. Mr Darling had wanted to increase VAT instead. Mr Brown’s decision ensured Labour had barely any support from business in that year’s general election.

So, to conclude, what the PM is proposing is a tax increase that will disproportionately hit younger and low-paid workers while making it harder for employers to hire people.

Or, as Nick Macpherson, the former permanent secretary at the Treasury, put it on Twitter: “Rentiers and trustafarians won’t have to pay a penny. And the low paid young will subsidise the wealthy old. Higher spending does require higher taxes. But national insurance is a regressive tax on jobs.”

Quite.

Business

Apollo-owned ABC Technologies in £800m raid on London-listed auto supplier

Published

8 hours ago

September 13, 2024

admin

Apollo-owned ABC Technologies in £800m raid on London-listed auto supplier

A London-listed automotive components supplier has become the latest British-based company to draw overseas takeover interest after receiving a series of offers from a Canadian rival.

Sky News has learnt that TI Fluid Systems has received at least two bid proposals from ABC Technologies Holdings, a Canadian competitor.

City sources said on Friday evening that the second of the offers had valued TI Fluid Systems at 180p-a-share – a significant premium to its closing price on Friday of 145.8p.

Shares in the company rose by more than 7% on Friday amid market rumours about a potential bid.

TI Fluid Systems floated in London in October 2017 at a price of 255p-a-share.

One source said the company’s board, which is chaired by Tim Cobbold, a former boss of banknote printer De La Rue, was unlikely to seriously consider a proposal unless it was pitched at closer to 200p-a-share.

Both parties are likely to come under pressure from the Takeover Panel to confirm the interest from ABC Technologies over the weekend, or at the latest on Monday morning.

TI Fluid Systems operates from 98 manufacturing locations in 27 countries.

It specialises in the production of fluid handling and thermal management systems.

The company traces its roots back to 1922, when it began trading as Harry Bundy and Company.

A string of London-listed companies have agreed to takeovers by foreign or private equity bidders this year, the latest of which came this week when Centamin, a gold miner, accepted a £1.9bn offer from AngloGold Ashanti of South Africa.

On Friday, Apollo and TI Fluid Systems both declined to comment.

Business

Mail Online and Sun take axe to US-based workforces

Published

15 hours ago

September 13, 2024

admin

Mail Online and Sun take axe to US-based workforces

Two of Britain’s biggest newspaper publishers are taking the axe to their US workforces, slashing scores of jobs in the latest evidence of mounting financial pressures across the media sector.

Sky News has learnt that News UK, the publisher of The Sun, and DMGT, owner of the Daily Mail, have this week announced sweeping internal restructurings in their digital operations on the other side of the Atlantic.

Industry sources said on Friday the two companies were cutting significant numbers of employees in the US, where The Sun launched an American edition online four years ago.

By coincidence, the two sets of cutbacks are understood to have been launched on the same day.

DMGT launched Dailymail.com in the US in 2010, and is thought to employ about 200 people there, a reduction from roughly 260 seven years ago.

One insider said the DMGT layoffs represented just under 10% of its US workforce, while the proportion of The Sun’s US staff being let go is understood to be much higher.

A source close to News UK, which is part of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire, denied it was as high as 80%.

The company is thought to employ about 100 people on The Sun’s US platform.

One media analyst said the redundancies, which have not been announced publicly, were a reflection of the “intense” pressure on news media brands, even in areas where their digital audiences had gained significant momentum.

A spokesperson for The Sun said: “The US Sun has been an incredibly successful business, driving billions of page views.

“However the digital landscape has experienced seismic change in the last 12 months and we need to reset the strategy and resize the team to secure the long term, sustainable future for The Sun’s business in the US.”

A spokesperson for Associated Newspapers, the DMGT subsidiary which publishes the Daily Mail, said in response to an enquiry from Sky News: “We have made a small number of job cuts in some areas of our US editorial department.

“This was a difficult, but necessary decision, which will enable us to continue to invest in areas where we can grow our audience.”

Business

Investigation into potential second Post Office scandal will be ‘positive’ for sub-postmasters

Published

16 hours ago

September 13, 2024

admin

Investigation into potential second Post Office scandal will be 'positive' for sub-postmasters

The lawyer for those affected by Capture software predating the faulty Horizon system says his “belief” is that the “report is going to be positive”.

Neil Hudgell, a solicitor at Hudgell Solicitors, is representing over 40 former sub-postmasters who used Capture in the 1990s.

Dozens who used it claim they were wrongfully accused of stealing money from their Post Office branches, similar to the Horizon scandal.

Mr Hudgell told Sky News: “We need to see the report, we need to consider options.”

“But clearly, if it is a positive report”, he added, “and we are going to start talking about exoneration and compensation, then we need a process to reflect the ageing demographic of those involved, ie it needs to be quick, and we need to figure out what the quickest route is”.

Capture was introduced to some branches from 1992 – and was the predecessor to the faulty Horizon accounting software.

Under Horizon, hundreds of sub-postmasters were wrongly prosecuted between 1999 and 2015.

What’s happening with the report?

An independent investigation into Capture began in the summer and has now concluded.

It was carried out by risk advisory and financial solutions company Kroll.

The report has now been passed to the Department for Business and Trade.

Former sub-postmaster Steve Marston believes he was falsely convicted of theft due to “glitches” in Capture software.

The personal toll

Shortfalls of £79,000 were found at his branch in Greater Manchester.

Earlier this year, he met the then Post Office minister Kevin Hollinrake when it was agreed that an independent IT expert would assess evidence claiming to “prove” Capture software was faulty.

Mr Marston said that “as a group” he believes those affected have provided “an overwhelming amount of evidence to show that Capture was totally unfit for use and should never have been released”.

He claims that sub-postmasters were told that “Capture would make our lives easier and that we would no longer have to do manual accounting as we had in the past”.

He says he was given the software by the Post Office “and basically left to get on with it without any sort of guidance”.

He describes “extra stress” and that he and his wife “are struggling” whilst waiting for the conclusions to the Kroll report.

Campaigners discovered old floppy disks earlier this year with the Capture software on them and passed them on to investigators.

Mr Marston, and other sub-postmasters, say they show that errors in the system could generate false shortfalls in accounts and believe Capture evidence was used in his prosecution.

They also claim that it appears that errors occurred when upgrades were made to the software.

Other factors such as power cuts are also thought to be another possible reason for faults.

The Kroll report is due to be released in the next few weeks.

A Department for Business and Trade spokesperson said: “We will thoroughly examine Kroll’s report into the Capture system and its impact on postmasters and set out next steps in due course.”