A national insurance hike to boost social care would be built on a misunderstanding
Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak have, it is reported, agreed to pay for long term reform of social care by raising national insurance by a penny in the pound for both employers and employees.
The move would raise an estimated £10bn annually.
The government is braced for unease among its backbenchers because the Conservatives promised not to raise income tax or national insurance in their election-winning 2019 manifesto.
It perhaps ought not to be too worried about that. The prime minister can always point to the crisis in social care and the need, more broadly, to repair the public finances after the COVID-19 pandemic.
The chancellor, meanwhile, can point out that one of his predecessors, Gordon Brown, did something similar in his April 2002 budget. Having pledged not to raise income taxes in Labour’s election-winning 2001 manifesto, Mr Brown broke the spirit of that promise, slapping more than 4 million workers with a 1% increase in national insurance.
The risk of breaking an election promise is the least of the problems with this proposal.
For a start, the move will perpetuate the myth that national insurance is some kind of special safety net, hypothecated to pay for pensions, unemployment benefits and other elements of the welfare state such as the NHS.
It is remarkable how many people still believe this when, for many years, national insurance has simply been income tax by another name.
Yes, there is something called the National Insurance Fund, but essentially it is a government accounting wheeze.
The money raised in national insurance contributions is insufficient to pay for the benefits and public services that many people think they do. It just disappears, effectively, into the government’s coffers and is spent in the same way that revenues from income tax, VAT and corporation tax are spent.
Because the UK state pension system is a so-called ‘pay as you go’ system, the national insurance paid by today’s workers pays the pensions of today’s pensioners, not their own.
This misunderstanding of national insurance may be precisely why the government is proposing going to go down this route.
The Treasury risks hurting those worst affected financially by the COVID crisis through any rise in NI contributions
Polling suggests people are happier paying national insurance rather than income tax because they genuinely appear to believe they are getting something, a benefit, for doing so.
It is why chancellors down the years have reached for national insurance as their favoured stealth tax. In 1979, national insurance receipts were equal to half of income tax receipts. This year, according to the Treasury, they will be equal to roughly three-quarters of income tax receipts.
There are also other problems with this proposal.
One is that it exacerbates intergenerational unfairness. Unlike income tax, workers of state pension age do not pay national insurance on their earnings, so the hike will fall entirely on younger workers.
Moreover, because national insurance – unlike income tax – is levied only on earnings, rather than other sources of income, such as interest on savings, the cost of this measure will fall disproportionately on younger people rather than older ones.
In other words, having made sacrifices throughout the pandemic to protect older people, younger people will again be paying through their earnings for a benefit that will benefit older people rather than themselves.
This move, then, may deepen the problems the Conservatives have with younger voters.
An explicit aim of reforming social care is to prevent people having to sell their homes to pay for such care. Younger people, unable to buy a home in the first place, may wonder why they are being asked to pay higher national insurance contributions so that others may keep theirs.
Others will criticise the lack of progressivity in this proposal.
All workers (other than those earning more than £100,000 annually and who do not benefit from the personal allowance) can earn up to £12,570 before they have to start paying income tax. By contrast, national insurance kicks in as soon as a worker has earned £9,568.
Accordingly, a wealthy pensioner living off a generous final salary pension or on income from their savings and dividends will not be paying this proposed hike, but a low-paid worker earning just £184 per week will be.
Another major problem with this proposal is the unwanted consequences it will have. Taxes, by their nature, reduce the activity on which they are levied. It is why chancellors tax smoking heavily.
Because this proposed national insurance will fall on employers, as well as employees, it will make the cost of hiring someone more expensive.
Higher payroll taxes mean fewer people in work and, potentially, lower growth. It is why, in response to Mr Brown’s national insurance hike in 2002, the then-Conservative leader, Iain Duncan-Smith, called the move a “tax on jobs”.
Gordon Brown introduced an extra tier of National Insurance in 2002
So, too, did David Cameron and George Osborne when Mr Brown ordered his chancellor, Alistair Darling, to announce a 1% rise in national insurance in March 2010 to pay for the financial crisis. Mr Darling had wanted to increase VAT instead. Mr Brown’s decision ensured Labour had barely any support from business in that year’s general election.
So, to conclude, what the PM is proposing is a tax increase that will disproportionately hit younger and low-paid workers while making it harder for employers to hire people.
Or, as Nick Macpherson, the former permanent secretary at the Treasury, put it on Twitter: “Rentiers and trustafarians won’t have to pay a penny. And the low paid young will subsidise the wealthy old. Higher spending does require higher taxes. But national insurance is a regressive tax on jobs.”
Quite.
The boss of Ryanair has told Sky News the president of the European Commission should “quit” if she can’t stop disruption caused by repeated French air traffic control strikes.
Michael O’Leary, the group chief executive of Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, said in an interview with Business Live that Ursula von der Leyen had failed to get to grips, at an EU level, with interruption to overflights following several recent disputes in France.
The latest action began on Thursday and is due to conclude later today, forcing thousands of flights to be delayed and cancelled through French airspace closures.
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Mr O’Leary told presenter Darren McCaffrey that French domestic flights were given priority during ATC strikes and other nations, including Italy and Greece, had solved the problem through minimum service legislation.
He claimed that the vast majority of flights, cancelled over two days of action that began on Thursday, would have been able to operate under similar rules.
Mr O’Leary said of the EU’s role: “We continue to call on Ursula von der Leyen – why are you not protecting these overflights, why is the single market for air travel being disrupted by a tiny number of French air traffic controllers?
Ryanair has cancelled more than 400 flights over two days due to the action in France. File pic: PA
“All we get is a shrug of their shoulders and ‘there’s nothing we can do’. We point out, there is.”
He added: “We are calling on Ursula von der Leyen, who preaches about competitiveness and reforming Europe, if you’re not willing to protect or fix overflights then quit and let somebody more effective do the job.”
The strike is estimated, by the Airlines for Europe lobby group to have led to at least 1,500 cancelled flights, leaving 300,000 travellers unable to make their journeys.
Michael O’Leary believes the EU can take action on competition grounds. Pic: PA
Ryanair itself had axed more than 400 flights so far, Mr O’Leary said. Rival easyJet said on Thursday that it had cancelled 274 services over the two days.
The beginning of July marks the start of the European summer holiday season.
The French civil aviation agency DGAC had already told airlines to cancel 40% of flights covering the three main Paris airports on Friday ahead of the walkout – a dispute over staffing levels and equipment quality.
Mr O’Leary described those safety issues as “nonsense” and said twhile the controllers had a right to strike, they did not have the right to close the sky.
DGAC has warned of delays and further severe disruption heading into the weekend.
Many planes and crews will be out of position.
Mr O’Leary is not alone in expressing his frustration.
The French transport minister Philippe Tabarot has denounced the action and the reasons for it.
“The idea is to disturb as many people as possible,” he said in an interview with CNews.
Passengers are being advised that if your flight is cancelled, the airline must either give you a refund or book you on an alternative flight.
If you have booked a return flight and the outbound leg is cancelled, you can claim the full cost of the return ticket back from your airline.
The CBI has begun a search for a successor to Rupert Soames, its chairman, as it continues its recovery from the crisis which brought it to the brink of collapse in 2023.
Sky News has learnt that the business lobbying group’s nominations committee has engaged headhunters to assist with a hunt for its next corporate figurehead.
Mr Soames, the grandson of Sir Winston Churchill, was recruited by the CBI in late 2023 with the organisation lurching towards insolvency after an exodus of members.
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The group’s handling of a sexual misconduct scandal saw it forced to secure emergency funding from a group of banks, even as it was frozen out of meetings with government ministers.
One prominent CBI member described Mr Soames on Thursday as the group’s “saviour”.
“Without his ability to bring members back, the organisation wouldn’t exist today,” they claimed.
Rupert Soames. Pic: Reuters
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Mr Soames and Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI chief executive, have partly restored its influence in Whitehall, although many doubt that it will ever be able to credibly reclaim its former status as ‘the voice of British business’.
Its next chair, who is also likely to be drawn from a leading listed company boardroom, will take over from Mr Soames early next year.
Egon Zehnder International is handling the search for the CBI.
“The CBI chair’s term typically runs for two years and Rupert Soames will end his term in early 2026,” a CBI spokesperson said.
“In line with good governance, we have begun the search for a successor to ensure continuity and a smooth transition.”
Ryanair and easyJet have cancelled hundreds of flights as a French air traffic controllers strike looms.
Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, said it had axed 170 services amid a plea by French authorities for airlines to reduce flights at Paris airports by 40% on Friday.
EasyJet said it was cancelling 274 flights during the action, which is due to begin later as part of a row over staffing numbers and ageing equipment.
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The owner of British Airways, IAG, said it was planning to use larger aircraft to minimise disruption for its own passengers.
The industrial action is set to affect all flights using French airspace, leading to wider cancellations and delays across Europe and the wider world.
Ryanair said its cancellations, covering both days, would hit services to and from France, and also flights over the country to destinations such as the UK, Greece, Spain and Ireland.
Group chief executive Michael O’Leary has campaigned for a European Union-led shake-up of air traffic control services in a bid to prevent such disruptive strikes, which have proved common in recent years.
He described the latest action as “recreational”.
Michael O’Leary. Pic: Reuters
“Once again, European families are held to ransom by French air traffic controllers going on strike,” he said.
“It is not acceptable that overflights over French airspace en route to their destination are being cancelled/delayed as a result of yet another French ATC strike.
“It makes no sense and is abundantly unfair on EU passengers and families going on holidays.”
Ryanair is demanding the EU ensure that air traffic services are fully staffed for the first wave of daily departures, as well as to protect overflights during national strikes.
“These two splendid reforms would eliminate 90% of all ATC delays and cancellations, and protect EU passengers from these repeated and avoidable ATC disruptions due to yet another French ATC strike,” Mr O’Leary added.
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