From tuition to takeaways, why China’s regulatory crackdown is proving unappetising for investors

Published

2 years ago

July 26, 2021

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China’s government has just provided investors with another reminder of why they should tread carefully when putting money into the country.

At the end of last month, the Chinese ride-hailing app Didi made history when it floated on the New York Stock Exchange with a valuation of $70bn, making it the biggest IPO of a Chinese company in seven years.

Just days later, the Chinese government told Didi to stop registering new drivers and users for its app, which it followed by demanding that Didi be removed from Chinese app stores.

The shares plunged and are now 42% lower than the price at which they listed.

Now Beijing has done it again with a fresh salvo aimed at tech and education companies.

Firstly, the Chinese government announced on Friday night that it was banning private tutoring and test preparation for core school subjects, arguing the move would ease financial pressure on hard-up Chinese families.

Private tutoring in China is a $120billion-a-year business and around three-quarters of Chinese children are reckoned to have some form of private tuition outside school.

Beijing, which is concerned about the country’s rapidly-ageing population, suspects the financial pressure of educating children privately may be a reason why couples are still not having more children despite the abolition in 2015 of the “one child” policy.

The measure, which is believed to have come from President Xi Jinping himself, was accompanied by restrictions on foreign investment in private tutoring companies and is also expected to see advertising bans imposed – as well as restrictions on when tutoring can be made available.

The move sent shares of private tuition companies, many of which are listed in Hong Kong, tumbling.

New Oriental Education & Technology finished the session down 47%, while Scholar Education fell by 45% and Koolearn Technology by 33%.

Next came an attack on Tencent, one of China’s biggest tech companies, which on Saturday was ordered to give up the exclusive music licensing agreements it has signed with record companies – including Universal Music and Warner Music – around the world.

Tencent, which owns China’s most popular messaging service WeChat, is estimated to have an 80% share of the exclusive music streaming market in the country.

Shares of Tencent fell by almost 8% on the news.

Then, Beijing unveiled measures aimed at cooling what it sees as an overheated property market.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is reported to have ordered lenders to raise mortgage rates for first time buyers from 4.65% to 5%.

At the same time, the PBoC is said to have ordered an increase in the interest rate for people buying second homes from 5.25% to 5.7%. That sent shares in property development companies lower.

Separately, China also today announced new rules aimed at better protecting delivery riders, following complaints that some are not being paid the minimum wage or are being sent on routes where it is impossible to complete the order in the time allowed.

That news sent shares of Meituan, one of China’s biggest food delivery companies, down by 14%.

Its shares have now halved in value since February.

Shares of the e-commerce giant Alibaba, which also operates a popular delivery service called Ele.me, fell by more than 6%.

Taken together, the various measures add up to an unappetising cocktail for investors, who reacted accordingly.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng slid by 4.13%, taking it to a level not seen since December last year.

In Shanghai, the blue-chip CSI300 index fell by 3.22%, again wiping out all gains for the year to date.

The broader Shanghai Composite, meanwhile, fell by 2.34% to a two-month low.

There are two schools of thought as to what Beijing is doing here.

One is that this is just part of a wider campaign by the Chinese Communist Party to reassert its influence over life in China and strengthen its hand – with businesses and investors merely being caught up in this.

The other argues that this is a specific set of measures aimed at clipping the wings of businesses amid concerns that too many of them are not always operating within the law.

Aside from complaints about the treatment of workers in delivery firms, there is also a sense that the accounting practices of some property companies many not stand up to scrutiny, that the banks are being too lax with their lending standards and that the wealth being created by some of these companies, particularly those in the tech sector, are being too concentrated among a handful of plutocrats.

That theory is given credence by, for example, the way Beijing scuppered last year’s proposed stock market flotation of the payments company Ant Financial, which would have further added to the wealth of Jack Ma, the billionaire entrepreneur that created Ant and its former parent company, Alibaba.

Concerns about the quality of accounting at some companies have been rumbling ever since a former stock market darling, the coffee shop operator Luckin Coffee, collapsed last year after falsifying its accounts.

Either way, investors have been spooked, although some will have only themselves to blame given the way regulatory risk in China has been overlooked in recent years.

But it has certainly prompted investors in China to look more closely at their portfolios as they try to assess what other companies are at risk of seeing their business models reduced to rubble overnight by regulators.

Rightly so.

This Chinese government is very different from its immediate predecessors and is clearly far more relaxed about alienating foreign investors if it considers more important principles are at stake.

Business

Struggling CBI to impose 5% fee increase on members

Published

13 hours ago

December 1, 2023

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Struggling CBI to impose 5% fee increase on members

The CBI is urging members to swallow a further rise in fees even as the lobby group battles to regain its former standing among political and business leaders.

Sky News understands that CBI members will be asked at its annual meeting next week to approve a 5% rise in their subscription costs.

It comes less than three months after the organisation – which styles itself as ‘the voice of British business’ – won a lifeline from banks which agreed to provide sufficient funding to avert collapse in the aftermath of a sexual misconduct scandal.

The CBI has been slowly rebuilding its reputation, staging a slimmed-down version of its annual conference last month which featured an address by Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor.

In a circular to members, it said the fee hike was in line with previous years.

However, the group has been slashing costs by axeing a chunk of its workforce and closing most of its overseas offices in an attempt to restore its finances to a more stable footing.

The crisis which erupted earlier this year, which followed several rape allegations against former employees, triggered an exodus of corporate members including Aviva and John Lewis Partnership.

Tony Danker, its director-general – who was accused of inappropriate behaviour but had nothing to do with the more serious allegations – stepped down in April weeks after being suspended.

The CBI briefly entertained talks about a merger with Make UK, the manufacturers’ body, but these have now been curtailed.

The business group declined to comment on Friday, although an insider said it was “standard operating practice…to adjust prices for inflation”.

Business

Frazer to prohibit removal of key Telegraph staff during probe

Published

17 hours ago

December 1, 2023

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Frazer to prohibit removal of key Telegraph staff during probe

The government is to prohibit the removal or transfer of key Daily Telegraph journalists during a public interest probe into the newspaper’s prospective takeover by a state-backed Abu Dhabi investor.

Sky News has learnt that Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, is preparing to make an interim enforcement order (IEO) that will impose a set of restrictions on the Daily and Sunday Telegraph’s current owners.

City sources said the IEO – which has been notified to the Barclay family – was likely to be made public later on Friday.

Both the family and RedBird IMI are said to have agreed to the restrictions.

It will come within hours of the government issuing a Public Interest Intervention Notice (PIIN) that will subject the change of control at the broadsheet titles to a probe by Ofcom and the Competition and Markets Authority.

The IEO will prevent the Barclay family or RedBird IMI from expediting a further change of ownership, removing directors or transferring top editorial staff without the secretary of state’s approval, according to one insider.

Whitehall officials had been considering using a separate order to ensure the newspapers’ independence during the PIIN, but sources said the IEO would effectively achieve the same objectives.

News of the IEO may assuage concerns raised by a growing number of Conservative parliamentarians about the Barclay family, which has owned the Telegraph since 2004, or RedBird IMI attempting to exert renewed influence on the newspapers.

Ms Frazer is seeking the regulators’ responses before the end of January, after which the takeover of the broadsheet newspapers could be approved or blocked.

Dozens of Conservative MPs, including the former party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, have called for the deal to face further investigation under national security laws.

The repayment of a £1.16bn debt to Lloyds is, however, unaffected by the PIIN.

Earlier on Friday, Sky News revealed that shareholders in Lloyds Banking Group could reap a windfall worth more than £500m early next year following the deal to repay the loans.

Lloyds is expected to receive the funds early next week from the Barclays following an agreement between the family and RedBird IMI, an Abu Dhabi-based vehicle which is majority-funded by members of the Gulf state’s royal family.

RedBird IMI plans to convert a £600m chunk of the loan into shares in the Telegraph newspapers and The Spectator magazine if it gains regulatory approval for the deal.

RedBird IMI, which is fronted by the former CNN president Jeff Zucker and funded in large part by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the owner of Manchester City, has pledged to preserve the Telegraph’s editorial independence.

A trio of independent directors, led by the Openreach chairman Mike McTighe, will remain in place while the public interest inquiry is carried out.

RedBird IMI’s move to fund the loan redemption has circumvented an auction of the Telegraph titles which has drawn interest from a range of bidders.

Prospective bidders led by the hedge fund billionaire and GB News shareholder Sir Paul Marshall had been agitating for the launch of a PIIN.

The Telegraph auction, which has also drawn interest from the Daily Mail proprietor Lord Rothermere and National World, a London-listed local newspaper publisher, is now effectively over.

Until June, the newspapers were chaired by Aidan Barclay – the nephew of Sir Frederick Barclay, the octogenarian who along with his late twin Sir David engineered the takeover of the Telegraph in 2004.

Lloyds had been locked in talks with the Barclays for years about refinancing loans made to them by HBOS prior to that bank’s rescue during the 2008 banking crisis.

The DCMS and a spokesman for the Barclay family declined to comment.

Business

Lloyds shareholders could reap £500m bonanza from Telegraph deal

Published

19 hours ago

December 1, 2023

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Lloyds shareholders could reap £500m bonanza from Telegraph deal

Shareholders in Lloyds Banking Group could reap a windfall worth more than £500m early next year following a deal that will see it repaid loans in full by the owners of The Daily Telegraph.

Sky News has learnt Britain’s biggest high street lender will be in a position to write back more than £500m on the value of a £700m loan extended years ago to the Barclay family.

One banking analyst said the writeback, the precise size of which will be disclosed in Lloyds’ annual results next February, would pave the way for Lloyds to return a significant amount of capital to investors, potentially through a special dividend or share buyback.

Lloyds is expected to receive a total of £1.16bn early next week from the Barclays following an agreement between the family and RedBird IMI, an Abu Dhabi-based vehicle which is majority-funded by members of the Gulf state’s royal family.

RedBird IMI plans to convert a £600m chunk of the loan into shares in the Telegraph newspapers and The Spectator magazine if it gains regulatory approval for the deal.

On Thursday, Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, confirmed a Sky News report that she was issuing a Public Interest Intervention Notice (PIIN) that will subject the transaction to scrutiny by Ofcom and the Competition and Markets Authority.

Ms Frazer is seeking the regulators’ responses before the end of January, after which the takeover of the broadsheet newspapers could be approved or blocked.

Dozens of Conservative MPs, including the former party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, have called for the deal to face further investigation under national security laws.

The debt repayment to Lloyds is, however, unaffected by the PIIN.

The bank has already given notice to the government of the debt repayment, with the funds expected to be transferred early next week.

The outcome will be a stunning one for Lloyds and its chief executive Charlie Nunn, who had rejected a series of partial repayment offers from the family lodged after the Telegraph’s holding company was placed into receivership during the summer.

In addition to the £700m value of the principal loan, the Barclays are paying more than £400m in interest which has accrued over many years.

“The writeback is pure profit for Lloyds and will flow straight to the bank’s bottom line,” the analyst said.

One person close to the situation said that Lloyds had written down the majority, but not all, of the loan’s original £700m value.

A writeback of over £500m is therefore expected to contribute a meaningful proportion of the bank’s 2023 annual profit.

Analysts say the company is already generating significant sums of excess capital and that the absence of a substantial acquisition would therefore give Lloyds’ board the freedom to return the Telegraph loan windfall to shareholders.

The repayment of the Lloyds loan will trigger the dissolution of a court hearing in the British Virgin Islands to liquidate a Barclay company tied to the newspaper’s ownership, and temporarily put the family back in control of their shares in the broadsheet title.

However, the Barclays will be subject to restrictions imposed by the government which are expected to be outlined shortly.

A trio of independent directors, led by the Openreach chairman Mike McTighe, will remain in place while a public interest inquiry is carried out.

RedBird IMI’s move to fund the loan redemption has circumvented an auction of the Telegraph titles which has drawn interest from a range of bidders.#

The battle for control of The Daily Telegraph has rapidly turned into a complex commercial and political row which has raised tensions between the DCMS and the Foreign Office over Britain’s receptiveness to foreign investment.

Prospective bidders led by the hedge fund billionaire and GB News shareholder Sir Paul Marshall had been agitating for the launch of a PIIN.

Sky News revealed recently that Ed Richards, the former boss of media regulator Ofcom, is acting as a lobbyist for RedBird IMI through Flint Global, which was co-founded by Sir Simon Fraser, former Foreign Office permanent secretary.

The Telegraph auction, which has also drawn interest from the Daily Mail proprietor Lord Rothermere and National World, a London-listed local newspaper publisher, has now been paused until next month.

The original bid deadline had been shifted from 28 November to 10 December to take account of the possibility that Lloyds might be repaid in full by the Barclay family by December 1.

That bid deadline is now expected to be cancelled.

Lloyds had been locked in talks with the Barclays for years about refinancing loans made to them by HBOS prior to that bank’s rescue during the 2008 banking crisis.

A Lloyds spokesman indicated that any capital distributions would be evaluated in the usual way by its board ahead of the bank’s annual results, but declined to comment further.