IMF predicts UK economic bounce-back this year to match resurgent US
Britain’s economy will grow faster than any major economy in Europe as it rebounds from the COVID-19 recession and emerges from lockdown, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted.
In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook – its periodical look at the state of the global economy – the IMF forecast that the UK economy would grow by 7% this year, the strongest year for economic growth since comparable records began following the Second World War.
The UK’s forecast growth rate would represent the joint-strongest rate in the group of seven leading industrialised nations alongside the US, which is also expected to expand by 7%.
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said it estimated the pandemic had reduced per capita incomes in advanced economies by 2.8%
The UK growth rate this year is stronger than Germany (3.6%), France (5.8%) and Italy (4.9%), though the UK economy contracted more than those other countries in 2020.
The IMF’s updated forecasts also anticipate the UK growing by 4.8% next year, implying that the UK economy will regain its pre-COVID levels around the turn of the year.
However, while the UK is expected to rebound quickly, it is not expected to regain all the lost potential growth sacrificed during the pandemic – something which is not true of the US, which the IMF expects to be stronger, on a GDP basis, following the pandemic than was anticipated before it struck.
The IMF said that the main fault line in the global economy in the coming years would be between those countries with high vaccination rates and those mostly emerging economies with lower levels of immunisations.
Its chief economist, Gita Gopinath, said: “We estimate the pandemic has reduced per capita incomes in advanced economies by 2.8%, relative to pre-pandemic trends over 2020-2022, compared with an annual per capita loss of 6.3% a year for emerging market and developing economies (excluding China).”
Considering the likely impact of the Delta variant of COVID, the IMF said: “In countries with high vaccination coverage, such as the United Kingdom and Canada, the impact would be mild; meanwhile countries lagging in vaccination, such as India and Indonesia, would suffer the most among G20 economies.”
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CBI: Long-term outlook for UK economy ‘still very positive’
In spite of growing disquiet about rising prices of goods and services around much of the developed world, the Fund said it expected high inflation levels to abate in the coming years, saying that many of the price rises reflected temporary factors.
However, it added that this was “subject to significant uncertainty given the uncharted nature of this recovery”.
“More persistent supply disruptions and sharply rising housing prices are some of the factors that could lead to persistently high inflation,” the IMF said.
“Further, inflation is expected to remain elevated into 2022 in some emerging market and developing economies, related in part to continued food price pressures and currency depreciations – creating yet another divide.”
Chancellor Rishi Sunak said of the Fund’s findings: “There are positive signs that our economy is rebounding faster than initially expected, with the IMF forecasting the UK to have the joint highest growth rate in 2021 among the G7 economies.
“That said, we still face challenges ahead as a result of the impact of the pandemic, which is why we remain focused on protecting and creating as many jobs as possible through our Plan for Jobs.”
Business
UBS takeover of Credit Suisse: Embattled bank’s chairman describes ‘historic, sad and very challenging’ day
UBS will take over Credit Suisse in a deal aimed at stemming what was fast becoming a global crisis of confidence.
Credit Suisse, the 167-year-old embattled lender had been brought to the brink of financial calamity last week, despite securing a $54bn (£44bn) credit line from Switzerland’s central bank.
The credit line was agreed upon in a move aimed at reassuring markets and depositors, but it failed to stem a rush of customer withdrawal, prompting a request from the Swiss government for the rival UBS to consider a takeover.
That takeover was announced on Sunday evening – UBS will pay 3bn Swiss francs (£2.6bn) to acquire Credit Suisse, it has agreed to assume up to 5bn francs (£4.4bn) in losses, and 100bn Swiss francs (£88.5bn) in liquidity assistance will be available to both banks.
The deal is expected to be closed by the end of this year.
Colm Kelleher, chairman of UBS Group, said the agreement “represents enormous opportunities”.
He also said that his bank’s long-term aim would be to downsize Credit Suisse’s investment banking business and align it with the “conservative risk culture” of UBS.
Axel Lehmann, chairman of Credit Suisse, described the day as “historic, sad and very challenging” for his bank and the global market.
‘The best available outcome’
Mr Lehmann said: “Given recent extraordinary and unprecedented circumstances, the announced merger represents the best available outcome.
“This has been an extremely challenging time for Credit Suisse and while the team has worked tirelessly to address many significant legacy issues and execute on its new strategy, we are forced to reach a solution today that provides a durable outcome.”
‘Exceptional situation’
In a statement, the Swiss central bank and other officials said that the agreement represented “a solution…to secure financial stability and protect the Swiss economy in this exceptional situation”.
It is also hoped that UBS’s takeover of its old rival will avoid the contagion of the kind seen in the financial crisis of 2008.
Central banks insist systems are resilient
The news was welcomed by central banks in the US, Europe and in the UK.
All three insisted that banking systems within their jurisdiction are strong and resilient.
The Bank of England said: “We have been engaging closely with international counterparts throughout the preparations for today’s announcements and will continue to support their implementation.
“The UK banking system is well capitalised and funded, and remains safe and sound.”
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Credit Suisse rescue: What now for the UK’s banks?
A deal likely to ripple through global markets
Credit Suisse is one of the world’s largest wealth managers and is also one of 30 banks ranked as systemically important, meaning the deal is likely to ripple through global markets on Monday.
It is also one of the largest investment banking employers in the City of London, employing around 5,000 people.
In a memo to employees on Sunday, Credit Suisse said there would be no immediate impact on clients or day-to-day working operations, adding that branches and global offices would remain open.
It comes after a difficult few weeks for the banking sector, with the collapse of US lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
The UK branch of SVB was rescued by HSBC for £1, but a number of other mid-sized American lenders have also been forced to seek emergency funding.
UBS will take over Credit Suisse in a deal aimed at stemming what was fast becoming a global crisis of confidence.
Credit Suisse, the 167-year-old embattled lender had been brought to the brink of financial calamity last week, despite securing a $54bn (£44bn) credit line from Switzerland’s central bank.
The credit line was agreed in a move aimed at reassuring markets and depositors, but it failed to stem a rush of customer withdrawal, prompting a request from the Swiss government for the rival UBS to consider a takeover.
That takeover was announced on Sunday evening – UBS will pay 3bn Swiss francs (£2.6bn) to acquire Credit Suisse, it has agreed to assume up to 5bn francs (£4.4bn) in losses, and 100bn Swiss francs (£88.5bn) in liquidity assistance will be available to both banks.
The deal is expected to be closed by the end of this year.
Colm Kelleher, chairman of UBS Group, said the agreement “represents enormous opportunities”.
He also said that his bank’s long-term aim would be to downsize Credit Suisse’s investment banking business and align it with the “conservative risk culture” of UBS.
Axel Lehmann, chairman of Credit Suisse, described the day as “historic, sad and very challenging” for his bank and the global market.
‘The best available outcome’
Mr Lehmann said: “Given recent extraordinary and unprecedented circumstances, the announced merger represents the best available outcome.
“This has been an extremely challenging time for Credit Suisse and while the team has worked tirelessly to address many significant legacy issues and execute on its new strategy, we are forced to reach a solution today that provides a durable outcome.”
‘Exceptional situation’
In a statement, the Swiss central bank and other officials said that the agreement represented “a solution…to secure financial stability and protect the Swiss economy in this exceptional situation”.
It is also hoped that UBS’s takeover of its old rival will avoid the contagion of the kind seen in the financial crisis of 2008.
Central banks insist systems are resilient
The news was welcomed by central banks in the US, Europe and in the UK.
All three insisted that banking systems within their jurisdiction are strong and resilient.
The Bank of England said: “We have been engaging closely with international counterparts throughout the preparations for today’s announcements and will continue to support their implementation.
“The UK banking system is well capitalised and funded, and remains safe and sound.”
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Credit Suisse rescue: What now for the UK’s banks?
A deal likely to ripple through global markets
Credit Suisse is one of the world’s largest wealth managers and is also one of 30 banks ranked as systemically important, meaning the deal is likely to ripple through global markets on Monday.
It is also one of the largest investment banking employers in the City of London, employing around 5,000 people.
In a memo to employees on Sunday, Credit Suisse said there would be no immediate impact on clients or day-to-day working operations, adding that branches and global offices would remain open.
It comes after a difficult few weeks for the banking sector, with the collapse of US lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
The UK branch of SVB was rescued by HSBC for £1, but a number of other mid-sized American lenders have also been forced to seek emergency funding.
Business
John Lewis may end 100% staff ownership to raise investment for ‘transformation’ as job losses loom
The retail giant John Lewis may dilute its 100% employee ownership to raise fresh investment.
The change to the partnership model would signal a major departure for the company, which runs the department store chain and Waitrose supermarkets.
The firm warned of job cuts and told staff it will not hand out a bonus for only the second time since 1953 this week after posting an annual loss of £234m as costs soared and sales dipped.
Dame Sharon White, its chairwoman, is in the early stages of exploring a plan to change its mutual structure in an attempt to raise up to £2bn of new investment, according to The Sunday Times.
The group would consider selling only a minority stake and its priority would be to maintain majority employee ownership, the newspaper said.
Any move would have to be voted on by the retailer’s partnership council of about 60 staff.
In the face of tough trading conditions, the firm has been looking to diversify its operations, including a move into the “build to rent” property business.
At the end of last year it signed a £500m deal with Abrdn, a global investment company, that will help it build 1,000 new homes.
The John Lewis Partnership said: “We’ve always said we would seek partnerships to help fund our transformation and exciting growth plans.
“We’ve done this with Ocado in the past and now with Abrdn.
“Our partners, who own the business, will be the first to hear about any developments.”
The business includes 329 Waitrose shops
UK’s largest employee-owned business
The business was founded by John Lewis with a small shop on Oxford Street in 1864.
His son, John Spedan Lewis, created the partnership more than 70 years ago as an experiment into a better way of doing business by including staff in decision-making.
The John Lewis Partnership is the UK’s biggest employee-owned business with around 74,000 staff, known as partners.
The group has 34 John Lewis shops and 329 Waitrose shops, along with its retail websites.
In a letter sent to staff last week, Dame Sharon raised the spectre of job losses as part of efforts “to become more efficient and productive”.
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‘Inflationary pressures’
A loss of £78m was recorded for the financial year which ended in January but when exceptional costs were added this reached £234m.
These included the write-down in value of Waitrose stores.
It represented a slump from a £181m profit in the previous year, with John Lewis blaming “inflationary pressures”.
The update came a day after the group appointed turnaround specialist Nish Kankiwala as its first chief executive, in a shake-up of the leadership structure.
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