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Britain’s economy will grow faster than any major economy in Europe as it rebounds from the COVID-19 recession and emerges from lockdown, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted.

In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook – its periodical look at the state of the global economy – the IMF forecast that the UK economy would grow by 7% this year, the strongest year for economic growth since comparable records began following the Second World War.

The UK’s forecast growth rate would represent the joint-strongest rate in the group of seven leading industrialised nations alongside the US, which is also expected to expand by 7%.

Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), speaks during a news conference in Santiago, Chile, July 23, 2019
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IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said it estimated the pandemic had reduced per capita incomes in advanced economies by 2.8%

The UK growth rate this year is stronger than Germany (3.6%), France (5.8%) and Italy (4.9%), though the UK economy contracted more than those other countries in 2020.

The IMF’s updated forecasts also anticipate the UK growing by 4.8% next year, implying that the UK economy will regain its pre-COVID levels around the turn of the year.

However, while the UK is expected to rebound quickly, it is not expected to regain all the lost potential growth sacrificed during the pandemic – something which is not true of the US, which the IMF expects to be stronger, on a GDP basis, following the pandemic than was anticipated before it struck.

The IMF said that the main fault line in the global economy in the coming years would be between those countries with high vaccination rates and those mostly emerging economies with lower levels of immunisations.

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Its chief economist, Gita Gopinath, said: “We estimate the pandemic has reduced per capita incomes in advanced economies by 2.8%, relative to pre-pandemic trends over 2020-2022, compared with an annual per capita loss of 6.3% a year for emerging market and developing economies (excluding China).”

Considering the likely impact of the Delta variant of COVID, the IMF said: “In countries with high vaccination coverage, such as the United Kingdom and Canada, the impact would be mild; meanwhile countries lagging in vaccination, such as India and Indonesia, would suffer the most among G20 economies.”

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CBI: Long-term outlook for UK economy ‘still very positive’

In spite of growing disquiet about rising prices of goods and services around much of the developed world, the Fund said it expected high inflation levels to abate in the coming years, saying that many of the price rises reflected temporary factors.

However, it added that this was “subject to significant uncertainty given the uncharted nature of this recovery”.

“More persistent supply disruptions and sharply rising housing prices are some of the factors that could lead to persistently high inflation,” the IMF said.

“Further, inflation is expected to remain elevated into 2022 in some emerging market and developing economies, related in part to continued food price pressures and currency depreciations – creating yet another divide.”

Chancellor Rishi Sunak said of the Fund’s findings: “There are positive signs that our economy is rebounding faster than initially expected, with the IMF forecasting the UK to have the joint highest growth rate in 2021 among the G7 economies.

“That said, we still face challenges ahead as a result of the impact of the pandemic, which is why we remain focused on protecting and creating as many jobs as possible through our Plan for Jobs.”

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Number of landlords selling up rises by nearly 13% in four months

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Number of landlords selling up rises by nearly 13% in four months

The number of landlords selling up has risen by nearly 13% in four months, Sky News has learned.

The statistics, given to us by the estate agents trade body Propertymark, show an increase from July to October.

Why should we care what happens to landlords?

In basic terms, if the landlord exodus continues we could end up with a housing crisis on our hands.

That is mainly because we have, as a country, become over-reliant on the private rental sector.

“Generation rent” is no longer your stereotypical “twenty-something” professional.

Now it’s made up, increasingly, of older generations, even pensioners, alongside a rising number of “social” tenants.

Government figures show more than 25% of households renting privately are in receipt of housing benefits.

That is, quite simply, because we do not have enough social housing.

As a result we are seeing different “groups” of people converging, and all competing for the same space within the rental sector.

A lack of affordable housing is, at the same time, exerting pressure from another direction.

Despite a housing market dip with property prices falling, many households aspiring to own their own property are unable to save up.

Read more:
Nearly one million private renters in England under threat of eviction
No-fault evictions driving up homelessness rates in north of England

‘Mission impossible’

Yoana Miteva, a British citizen who moved from Bulgaria to England twelve years ago, describes it as “mission impossible”.

She has been working full time, even taking on a second job, to try to put money aside.

Rent rises have meant added financial pressure forcing her to move home, in addition to energy bills, the cost of living, and house price inflation overall,

Tearful, she tells me she feels “like a hamster in a wheel…running and running, I’m trying to run faster, taking a second and third job, and I’m still well behind”.

As more landlords leave, rents rise as demand further outstrips supply.

The main reasons for landlords selling are down to mortgage rate rises and government legislation.

Private rented sector ‘invisibly buckling’ under pressure

Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, describes the private rented sector as “invisibly buckling” under increasing pressure for a while.

He says if the sector doesn’t work for a landlord “they will simply sell, meaning there’s one less home for a tenant”.

Landlords themselves are asking for the government to step in and change the rules to help make it easier to create “viable” businesses.

Sean Gillespie, a landlord in Hull, says his colleagues are “jumping ship” because their rented properties are financially “unsustainable”.

He asks: “How can landlords survive? They survive by putting rents up.”

Government rules blamed for tax increases

Government rules are being blamed, specifically “Section 24”, for tax increases which mean it’s no longer possible to offset business costs.

Mr Gillespie says it is “absolutely destroying” the sector.

“We can’t change the interest rates at the moment,” he adds, “but we can repeal Section 24 which is the increased taxation since 2015… if landlords don’t make any money, they can’t run a business, can’t provide housing, can’t repair houses.”

They may be generally unpopular, often vilified, but we need landlords.

If they disappear in increasing numbers, the question remains, without enough social or affordable housing – where will people live?

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John Lewis reveals £500m plan to build 1,000 rental homes

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John Lewis reveals £500m plan to build 1,000 rental homes

The John Lewis Partnership has revealed plans to build 1,000 rental properties on its land as part of a drive to diversify its business.

The employee-owned group, which is spearheaded by its eponymous department stores and Waitrose supermarkets, said a joint venture with investment firm abrdn aimed to achieve a tenth of its ambition to build 10,000 new homes over the next decade.

It would see John Lewis develop and manage the proposed new sites in Bromley and West Ealing in Greater London, which would require Waitrose shops to be redeveloped.

A vacant John Lewis warehouse, at Reading in Berkshire, would also be transformed under the plans.

The project, which is subject to planning permission, includes commitments to affordable housing and sustainability tied to its 2035 net-zero pledge, the partnership said.

“We want to create homes that will provide a stable income for the partnership, and moving into housing aligns with our purpose to make a positive difference for our partners, customers and communities”, the statement added.

The sites were chosen according to their central location and proximity to transport links.

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It announced the investment against a backdrop of record private rental costs, with tenants across the UK facing an average monthly bill of over £1,100 per month.

Across London, the figure is double that sum following a 22% year-on-year increase during the first nine months of 2022 according to estate agency Foxtons.

John Lewis said its plans would help ease a shortage of 75,000 rental homes in the capital.

Nina Bhatia, its executive director for strategy and commercial development, said: “Our partnership with abrdn is a major milestone in our ambition to create much-needed quality residential housing in our communities.

“Our residents can expect homes furnished by John Lewis with first-rate service and facilities.

“The move underlines our commitment to build on the strength of our brands to diversify beyond retail into areas where trust really matters.”

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Joules secures Next rescue with majority of stores and jobs saved

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Joules secures Next rescue with majority of stores and jobs saved

Collapsed fashion retailer Joules will live on after Next agreed a rescue deal that preserves most of its stores and jobs.

Under the deal Next will pick up 100 of its 132 stores and only 133 of 1,600 staff will lose their jobs.

TFG, the owner of the Hobbs, Whistles and Phase Eight womenswear brands, appeared to be the frontrunner on Wednesday in an auction process to secure an agreement with Joules’ administrator, Interpath Advisory.

Joules is the second major UK acquisition for the fashion-to-homewares retailer in as many months.

Next snapped up the brand, website and intellectual property of Made.com on 9 November.

Joules had been trading as normal since a failure to secure new investment pushed it towards insolvency a fortnight ago.

The clothing, footwear and accessories retailer collapsed after its finances, profitability and cash generation came under pressure amid the cost of living crisis.

It had been in talks with both Next and TFG about new investment beforehand.

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