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After almost a week of falling case numbers, there are tentative signs that the spread of COVID-19 in the UK is starting to slow.

Reported cases, which include tests from a number of days previously, point to a decline in infections. But numbers based on tests conducted in the previous 24 hours do not show as clear a picture.

So, what does the data tell us about the state of the pandemic in the UK?

The picture varies across nations. While Scotland saw case rates apparently peak in early July, other parts of the UK have only just begun to see infections fall over the past few days.

The chart below shows new cases based on the day someone tests positive and the data from 19 July is subject to change.

Colin Angus, senior research fellow at the University of Sheffield, says that part of this divergence could be explained in part by Scotland’s early defeat in the Euros.

He said: “In Scotland this effect seems to have fizzled out after they were knocked out of the tournament in the group stages, while for England we are still seeing the after effects of it in the data now.”

The earlier start to the summer holidays could also explain the lag between case rates in Scotland and the rest of the UK.

But even in Scotland the data is unclear. A randomised community survey by the ONS estimates that one in every 80 Scots had COVID-19 in the week ending 17 July compared with one in 90 the week before.

Dr Simon Clarke, an associate professor at the University of Reading, said: “It’s too early to read too much into the ordinary test data – we’ve seen ups and downs before and it’s longer-term trends that matter.”

Why could case rates be falling?

One reason that cases could be falling is the start of school holidays in England, as children are often asymptomatic and are not required to get daily tests outside of term time.

But data shows only a moderate drop off in lateral flow tests in recent weeks. Meanwhile, PCR tests, which account for the vast majority of the system, continue to increase.

Another factor that could be driving infection rates is the number of people in self-isolation, which increased to more than 600,000 in the week ending 14 July.

Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor in the School of Medicine, University of Leeds, said: “The ongoing coverage of the so-called ‘pingdemic’, unhelpful as it has been, actually reflect the fact that, in response to a large surge of infections, a great many people have been asked to self-isolate recently and this could have a direct impact upon transmission.”

Is the regional picture any clearer?

In England, case rates appear to be falling across most regions among 10 to 29-year-olds, but the trend is most pronounced across all age groups in the North East and North West.

Despite the rampant spread of COVID-19 in these regions, case rates among the elderly remained low, raising the question of whether vaccines have suppressed infection in older populations.

At the peak for the North West in January, there were more than 950 cases per 100,000 over-90s, compared with just 102 in the latest wave.

But University of Sheffield’s Colin Angus says that he is not convinced that the outbreaks have fizzled out because the virus has run out of susceptible people to infect.

He said: “If you look at Bolton and Blackburn, the original hotspots in the Delta wave, you can see that cases didn’t really fall back that far and the outbreak has continued to rumble along there in the past month or so, seemingly under the radar.”

Whatever the trends, experts warn that any decline in cases could be short-lived.

The return of schools combined with less outdoor socialising in the autumn is likely to lead to a surge in infections. In addition, it is still too early to gauge what impact lifting England’s remaining restrictions on 19 July will have on case numbers.

Dr Clarke said: “As things stand, we really don’t have any data for the effect of what’s happened on 19 July. It should put upward pressure on infection numbers, as should any measure which allows people to mix more.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Budget 2025: Reeves urged to ‘make the case’ for income tax freeze – as PM hits out at defenders of ‘failed’ policy

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Budget 2025: Reeves urged to 'make the case' for income tax freeze - as PM hits out at defenders of 'failed' policy

Rachel Reeves needs to “make the case” to voters that extending the freeze on personal income thresholds was the “fairest” way to increase taxes, Baroness Harriet Harman has said.

Speaking to Sky News political editor Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the Labour peer said the chancellor needed to explain that her decision would “protect people’s cost of living if they’re on low incomes”.

In her budget on Wednesday, Ms Reeves extended the freeze on income tax thresholds – introduced by the Conservatives in 2021 and due to expire in 2028 – by three years.

The move – described by critics as a “stealth tax” – is estimated to raise £8bn for the exchequer in 2029-2030 by dragging some 1.7 million people into a higher tax band as their pay goes up.

Rachel Reeves, pictured the day after delivering the budget. Pic: PA
Image:
Rachel Reeves, pictured the day after delivering the budget. Pic: PA

The chancellor previously said she would not freeze thresholds as it would “hurt working people” – prompting accusations she has broken the trust of voters.

During the general election campaign, Labour promised not to increase VAT, national insurance or income tax rates.

Sir Keir Starmer has insisted there’s been no manifesto breach, but acknowledged people were being asked to “contribute” to protect public services.

He has also launched a staunch defence of the government’s decision to scrap the two-child benefit cap, with its estimated cost of around £3bn by the end of this parliament.

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Prime minister defends budget

‘A moral failure’

The prime minister condemned the Conservative policy as a “failed social experiment” and said those who defend it stand for “a moral failure and an economic disaster”.

“The record highs of child poverty in this country aren’t just numbers on a spreadsheet – they mean millions of children are going to bed hungry, falling behind at school, and growing up believing that a better future is out of reach despite their parents doing everything right,” he said.

The two-child limit restricts child tax credit and universal credit to the first two children in most households.

The government believes lifting the limit will pull 450,000 children out of poverty, which it argues will ultimately help reduce costs by preventing knock-on issues like dependency on welfare – and help people find jobs.

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Budget winners and losers

Speaking to Rigby, Baroness Harman said Ms Reeves now needed to convince “the woman on the doorstep” of why she’s raised taxes in the way that she has.

“I think Rachel really answered it very, very clearly when she said, ‘well, actually, we haven’t broken the manifesto because the manifesto was about rates’.

“And you remember there was a big kerfuffle before the budget about whether they would increase the rate of income tax or the rate of national insurance, and they backed off that because that would have been a breach of the manifesto.

“But she has had to increase the tax take, and she’s done it by increasing by freezing the thresholds, which she says she didn’t want to do. But she’s tried to do it with the fairest possible way, with counterbalancing support for people on low incomes.”

Read more:
Labour’s credibility might not be recoverable
Budget 2025 is a big risk for Labour’s election plans

She added: “And that is the argument that’s now got to be had with the public. The Labour members of parliament are happy about it. The markets essentially are happy about it. But she needs to make the case, and everybody in the government is going to need to make the case about it.

“This was a difficult thing to do, but it’s been done in the fairest possible way, and it’s for the good, because it will protect people’s cost of living if they’re on low incomes.”

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Twenty two stadiums and 4.5 million tickets – home nations submit bid for 2035 Women’s World Cup

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Twenty two stadiums and 4.5 million tickets - home nations submit bid for 2035 Women's World Cup

The football associations of England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales have officially launched and released more details about their joint bid for the 2035 Women’s World Cup.

If the bid is successful, it would be the first football World Cup hosted in the UK since 1966, and the largest single-sport event ever staged in the country.

The bid includes 22 proposed stadiums – 16 in England, three in Wales, two in Scotland and one in Northern Ireland – across 16 host cities.

Organisers claim it would be the most accessible tournament ever, with 63 million people living within two hours of a proposed venue.

They predict the tournament would generate 4.5 million ticket sales and have a projected global TV audience of 3.5 billion.

The tournament would involve 104 matches contested by 48 teams over 39 days, with 48 team base camp training sites, 82 venue-specific training sites and 32 FIFA Fan Festival Sites proposed.

In April, FIFA president Gianni Infantino revealed that the home nations had submitted the only valid bid for tournament.

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In a joint statement, the CEOs of the various football associations, said: “We are proud of the growth that we’ve driven in recent years across the women’s and girls’ game.”

They added that: “A Women’s World Cup in the UK has the power to turbo charge the women’s and girls’ game both in the UK and globally.”

Where would the matches be played?

The bid details the host cities and stadiums as follow:

• Belfast – The Clearer Twist National Stadium at Windsor Park

• Birmingham – The Sports Quarter Stadium and Villa Park

• Brighton & Hove – The American Express Stadium

• Bristol – Ashton Gate

• Cardiff – Cardiff City Stadium and Principality Stadium

• Edinburgh – Easter Road

• Glasgow – Hampden Park

• Leeds – Elland Road

• Liverpool – The Hill Dickinson Stadium

• London – Chelsea FC Stadium, Emirates Stadium, Selhurst Park, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Wembley Stadium connected by EE

• Manchester – Etihad Stadium

• Trafford – Old Trafford

• Newcastle – St James’ Park

• Nottingham – The City Ground

• Sunderland – Stadium of Light

• Wrexham – STōK Racecourse

However, some of the stadiums mentioned above were merely the ones put forward in the official bid and are likely to change after the construction of new stadiums are completed.

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Have you seen this nutcracker? CCTV shows thief stealing festive statue in Edinburgh

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Have you seen this nutcracker? CCTV shows thief stealing festive statue in Edinburgh

The manager of an Edinburgh cocktail bar will speak to police today over the “catastrophic” theft of an eight-foot tall nutcracker figure from outside his venue.

In what can only be described as a total nightmare before Christmas, a person riding an e-bike guaranteed a place on the naughty list by stealing the Copper Blossom’s festive statue on Monday.

They are seen on CCTV placing the soldier across their lap and riding off into the night down George Street towards St Andrew Square.

The thief was wearing a dark hoodie
Image:
The thief was wearing a dark hoodie

Speaking to The UK Tonight on Sky News, manager Paul Paxton said it was a massive financial blow for his bar.

“The individual nutcrackers are about £900 each,” he revealed.

The stolen one is named Nolan, while his “brother” Nelson remains “safe and sound”.

They were part of the Copper Blossom’s outdoor Christmas display, and Nelson has now been moved into the foyer.

Mr Paxton said he would be speaking to police about their investigation, with sightings having been reported “around Edinburgh” later on the night of the incident.

Nolan, who the owner described as “massive”, was taken at around 10.10pm. The CCTV footage shows the thief removing the statue and dragging it on to their bike.

You can see Nolan being taken away in this shot
Image:
You can see Nolan being taken away in this shot

As if losing a £900 nutcracker wasn’t bad enough, a table costing hundreds of pounds was also broken.

“It’s pretty catastrophic,” said Mr Paxton.

The bar had originally put out an appeal that said “if you return it, we’re all good” – but he admitted he doesn’t expect Nolan’s return any time soon.

Paul Paxton is dwarfed by his nutcracker soldiers
Image:
Paul Paxton is dwarfed by his nutcracker soldiers

And while he’d “never want someone to go into harm’s way”, he told Jayne Secker he was a little disappointed no witnesses alerted him or his staff to the theft.

“There were about 12 or 13 people who walked past,” he said.

“Even if someone had run in, that could have helped. It wasn’t a quick process – he fell off his bike.

“A heads-up would have been lovely.”

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