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After almost a week of falling case numbers, there are tentative signs that the spread of COVID-19 in the UK is starting to slow.

Reported cases, which include tests from a number of days previously, point to a decline in infections. But numbers based on tests conducted in the previous 24 hours do not show as clear a picture.

So, what does the data tell us about the state of the pandemic in the UK?

The picture varies across nations. While Scotland saw case rates apparently peak in early July, other parts of the UK have only just begun to see infections fall over the past few days.

The chart below shows new cases based on the day someone tests positive and the data from 19 July is subject to change.

Colin Angus, senior research fellow at the University of Sheffield, says that part of this divergence could be explained in part by Scotland’s early defeat in the Euros.

He said: “In Scotland this effect seems to have fizzled out after they were knocked out of the tournament in the group stages, while for England we are still seeing the after effects of it in the data now.”

The earlier start to the summer holidays could also explain the lag between case rates in Scotland and the rest of the UK.

But even in Scotland the data is unclear. A randomised community survey by the ONS estimates that one in every 80 Scots had COVID-19 in the week ending 17 July compared with one in 90 the week before.

Dr Simon Clarke, an associate professor at the University of Reading, said: “It’s too early to read too much into the ordinary test data – we’ve seen ups and downs before and it’s longer-term trends that matter.”

Why could case rates be falling?

One reason that cases could be falling is the start of school holidays in England, as children are often asymptomatic and are not required to get daily tests outside of term time.

But data shows only a moderate drop off in lateral flow tests in recent weeks. Meanwhile, PCR tests, which account for the vast majority of the system, continue to increase.

Another factor that could be driving infection rates is the number of people in self-isolation, which increased to more than 600,000 in the week ending 14 July.

Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor in the School of Medicine, University of Leeds, said: “The ongoing coverage of the so-called ‘pingdemic’, unhelpful as it has been, actually reflect the fact that, in response to a large surge of infections, a great many people have been asked to self-isolate recently and this could have a direct impact upon transmission.”

Is the regional picture any clearer?

In England, case rates appear to be falling across most regions among 10 to 29-year-olds, but the trend is most pronounced across all age groups in the North East and North West.

Despite the rampant spread of COVID-19 in these regions, case rates among the elderly remained low, raising the question of whether vaccines have suppressed infection in older populations.

At the peak for the North West in January, there were more than 950 cases per 100,000 over-90s, compared with just 102 in the latest wave.

But University of Sheffield’s Colin Angus says that he is not convinced that the outbreaks have fizzled out because the virus has run out of susceptible people to infect.

He said: “If you look at Bolton and Blackburn, the original hotspots in the Delta wave, you can see that cases didn’t really fall back that far and the outbreak has continued to rumble along there in the past month or so, seemingly under the radar.”

Whatever the trends, experts warn that any decline in cases could be short-lived.

The return of schools combined with less outdoor socialising in the autumn is likely to lead to a surge in infections. In addition, it is still too early to gauge what impact lifting England’s remaining restrictions on 19 July will have on case numbers.

Dr Clarke said: “As things stand, we really don’t have any data for the effect of what’s happened on 19 July. It should put upward pressure on infection numbers, as should any measure which allows people to mix more.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Zebra died in Colchester Zoo after rhino ‘unintentionally punctured his stomach’

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Zebra died in Colchester Zoo after rhino 'unintentionally punctured his stomach'

The zebra that died in a zoo in Essex after an “incident” with a rhinoceros was killed after the larger animal unintentionally punctured its stomach.

Colchester Zoo had revealed over the weekend that a male zebra had died due to an “extremely rare” incident with a rhino, but it did not say how the animal’s death came about.

In an update, the zoo said a female rhino named Astrid had been sparring with her son Tayo in a mixed-species enclosure on Friday.

The rhino had “unfortunately” attempted to move the male zebra named Ziggy out of the way but in doing so “unintentionally punctured his stomach”, the zoo added.

The zebra died of his injuries a few minutes later.

Undated handout photo of a three-week-old male white rhino calf exploring his enclosure with mum Astrid, at Colchester Zoo in Essex. PA
Image:
A three-week-old male white rhino calf with mum Astrid at Colchester Zoo. File pic: PA

Ziggy had been living “happily” with the other species in the enclosure, including the rhino, since November 2017, the zoo said.

It added in a statement: “In the light of these rare events, we review our care for the animals to minimise the risk of these incidents reoccurring.

“As a result, the animal care team will continue to closely monitor the animals’ behaviour in the coming weeks.

“These sorts of incidents are extremely rare and we are devastated by this loss, Ziggy was a much-loved animal who will be dearly missed.

“We would really like to thank our supporters for the well wishes at this difficult time and thank our fantastic animal care team who dealt with this very difficult situation extremely professionally.”

The zoo initially announced the zebra’s death on social media over the weekend, with some users claiming they witnessed what happened.

“I was there and I feel so bad for everyone,” one person wrote on Instagram.

“It was heart-breaking. The keepers did a great job handling it.”

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Another said: “We knew it had to be something serious, however every member of staff handled it so well, especially now looking back knowing the circumstances.”

The two animals were kept in the zoo’s “Kingdom of the Wild” enclosure, which is also home to animals and birds, including an African crowned crane, an ostrich, a greater kudu and a reticulated giraffe.

The habitat was completed in 2001 and is comprised of an indoor building and outdoor paddock, according to the zoo’s website.

Its rhinos are the near-threatened southern white species and since the first ones arrived in 1972, seven calves have been born at the popular tourist attraction.

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Football fan who mocked dead player at Sheffield derby match banned and fined

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Football fan who mocked dead player at Sheffield derby match banned and fined

A football fan who mocked a dead player at a derby match has been banned and fined.

During a game between Sheffield Wednesday and Sheffield United, Brandon Pedryc typed out “Where’s Baldock” in large letters on his phone and waved it at rival fans during the Championship game at Bramall Lane on 11 November last year.

The message was a reference to the death of a former United player George Baldock, who died in Greece a month earlier at the age of 31, Sheffield Magistrates’ Court was told on Monday.

Fans unfurl a banner in tribute to Baldock.
Pic: PA
Image:
Fans unfurl a banner in tribute to Baldock after news of his death.
Pic: PA

The 23-year-old, a Wednesday fan, said he was responding to being pelted by coins and a bottle, as well as being spat on by rival fans – a claim district judge Marcus Waite accepted.

But Judge Waite described his actions as a “moment of madness” and said they had caused “upset” to fans as well as “enormous distress to the family and friends” of the deceased player.

Pedryc has been fined £300, ordered to pay £205 in costs and surcharges, and given a football banning order for three years.

Speaking to the defendant, the judge said: “You may have been provoked but you reacted by raising the stakes”, adding he had “risked greater disorder” in the highly charged environment of the derby.

Judge Waite went on to say Pedryc had done the right thing, approaching a police officer in Sheffield city centre within an hour of the incident once he realised his actions had gone viral on social media.

The court heard that while the officer made note of what Pedryc admitted to, he did not think a crime had been committed.

After a review by a more senior officer, Pedryc was arrested.

Pedryc told interviewing officers it had been a “sick joke, nothing more” and an attempt to “wind up” the United fans.

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Judge Waite said he had received a lengthy letter from Pedryc who he accepted was “thoroughly remorseful”.

Pedryc, who lives in Barnsley, admitted displaying writing, a sign or other visible representation which was threatening or abusive within the hearing or sight of a person likely to be caused harassment, alarm or distress.

Alex Nolan, defending, told the court his client had already lost one £30,000 job because of the incident, but he had secured other employment.

Baldock had been a Greek international.

He was found dead in his swimming pool in Athens, in October.

He had made 219 appearances for the Blades over seven seasons before leaving last year for Greek side Panathinaikos.

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Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon splits from husband

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Scotland's former first minister Nicola Sturgeon splits from husband

Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced she has split from her husband, Peter Murrell.

Ms Sturgeon and Ms Murrell met via the SNP and first became a couple in 2003. They later married in July 2010 at Oran Mor in Glasgow.

Nicola Sturgeon with her new husband Peter Murrell following their wedding service at the Oran Mor in Glasgow in  2010.
Pic PA
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Ms Sturgeon with Mr Murrell following their wedding service at Oran Mor in Glasgow in 2010. Pic PA

File photo dated 19/11/14 of the then SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon is given a kiss by her husband Peter Murrell at the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh, after she was voted in as First Minister of Scotland. Former first minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon and former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell have "decided to end" their marriage, she said in a post on social media. Issue date: Monday January 13, 2025.
Image:
Mr Murrell giving Ms Sturgeon a kiss after she was voted in as first minister in 2014. Pic: PA

In a statement posted to Instagram stories, she wrote: “With a heavy heart I am confirming that Peter and I have decided to end our marriage.

“To all intents and purposes we have been separated for some time now and feel it is time to bring others up to speed with where we are.

“It goes without saying that we still care deeply for each other, and always will.

“We will be making no further comment.”

Nicola Sturgeon announcing the split on Instagram
Image:
Ms Sturgeon announcing the split on Instagram

Ms Sturgeon unexpectedly announced she was stepping down as Scotland’s first minister and SNP leader in February 2023 after succeeding Alex Salmond following the independence referendum in 2014.

Mr Murrell, who had been SNP chief executive since 2001, resigned from his post the following month after taking responsibility for misleading the media over party membership numbers amid the leadership race, which Humza Yousaf went on to win.

At the time, he said: “While there was no intent to mislead, I accept that this has been the outcome.”

In April 2023, Mr Murrell was arrested as part of a probe into the SNP’s funding and finances. He was later charged with embezzling SNP funds in April last year.

Ms Sturgeon and ex-party treasurer MSP Colin Beattie have also been arrested and released without charge as part of Police Scotland’s long-running Operation Branchform.

The probe, which has been ongoing since July 2021, is linked to the spending of around £600,000 raised by SNP supporters to be earmarked for Scottish independence campaigning.

In September, it emerged senior officers had contacted the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service (COPFS) the month before for “advice and guidance” on the next steps in the investigation.

Meantime, Ms Sturgeon continues to deny any wrongdoing.

In an interview last month, the Glasgow Southside MSP said she knew “nothing more” about the inquiry and was getting on with life “as best I can at the moment”.

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