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After almost a week of falling case numbers, there are tentative signs that the spread of COVID-19 in the UK is starting to slow.

Reported cases, which include tests from a number of days previously, point to a decline in infections. But numbers based on tests conducted in the previous 24 hours do not show as clear a picture.

So, what does the data tell us about the state of the pandemic in the UK?

The picture varies across nations. While Scotland saw case rates apparently peak in early July, other parts of the UK have only just begun to see infections fall over the past few days.

The chart below shows new cases based on the day someone tests positive and the data from 19 July is subject to change.

Colin Angus, senior research fellow at the University of Sheffield, says that part of this divergence could be explained in part by Scotland’s early defeat in the Euros.

He said: “In Scotland this effect seems to have fizzled out after they were knocked out of the tournament in the group stages, while for England we are still seeing the after effects of it in the data now.”

The earlier start to the summer holidays could also explain the lag between case rates in Scotland and the rest of the UK.

But even in Scotland the data is unclear. A randomised community survey by the ONS estimates that one in every 80 Scots had COVID-19 in the week ending 17 July compared with one in 90 the week before.

Dr Simon Clarke, an associate professor at the University of Reading, said: “It’s too early to read too much into the ordinary test data – we’ve seen ups and downs before and it’s longer-term trends that matter.”

Why could case rates be falling?

One reason that cases could be falling is the start of school holidays in England, as children are often asymptomatic and are not required to get daily tests outside of term time.

But data shows only a moderate drop off in lateral flow tests in recent weeks. Meanwhile, PCR tests, which account for the vast majority of the system, continue to increase.

Another factor that could be driving infection rates is the number of people in self-isolation, which increased to more than 600,000 in the week ending 14 July.

Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor in the School of Medicine, University of Leeds, said: “The ongoing coverage of the so-called ‘pingdemic’, unhelpful as it has been, actually reflect the fact that, in response to a large surge of infections, a great many people have been asked to self-isolate recently and this could have a direct impact upon transmission.”

Is the regional picture any clearer?

In England, case rates appear to be falling across most regions among 10 to 29-year-olds, but the trend is most pronounced across all age groups in the North East and North West.

Despite the rampant spread of COVID-19 in these regions, case rates among the elderly remained low, raising the question of whether vaccines have suppressed infection in older populations.

At the peak for the North West in January, there were more than 950 cases per 100,000 over-90s, compared with just 102 in the latest wave.

But University of Sheffield’s Colin Angus says that he is not convinced that the outbreaks have fizzled out because the virus has run out of susceptible people to infect.

He said: “If you look at Bolton and Blackburn, the original hotspots in the Delta wave, you can see that cases didn’t really fall back that far and the outbreak has continued to rumble along there in the past month or so, seemingly under the radar.”

Whatever the trends, experts warn that any decline in cases could be short-lived.

The return of schools combined with less outdoor socialising in the autumn is likely to lead to a surge in infections. In addition, it is still too early to gauge what impact lifting England’s remaining restrictions on 19 July will have on case numbers.

Dr Clarke said: “As things stand, we really don’t have any data for the effect of what’s happened on 19 July. It should put upward pressure on infection numbers, as should any measure which allows people to mix more.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Government accused of ‘cover-up’ over collapse of China spy trial

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Government accused of 'cover-up' over collapse of China spy trial

Kemi Badenoch has accused the government of a “cover-up” over the collapse of a China spy trial.

The Tory leader said there were a “lot of questions to answer” as to why the trial involving two men did not proceed.

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It is expected that ministers will have to answer questions about the case today, as parliament returns from recess.

In particular, there are questions around the role played by Jonathan Powell, the prime minister’s national security adviser, in the trial not going ahead.

Ministers have repeatedly said Mr Powell played no role in the decisions that led to the collapse of the trial – but Ms Badenoch said she was “worried that there is a cover up taking place”.

Speaking to broadcasters in Grantham today, Ms Badenoch said: “We will be making sure that we ask questions in parliament about exactly who knew what, where and when, but Jonathan Powell certainly has questions to answer.”

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She refuted suggestions from ministers that Mr Powell had had no involvement in the collapse of the trial, saying: “We are seeing information that contradicts that.

“That is why it is very important that the government come clean about who knew what, where, when, and why this has happened.”

Former parliamentary researcher Christopher Cash, 30, of Whitechapel, east London, and teacher Christopher Berry, 33, of Witney, Oxfordshire, were charged with passing politically sensitive information to a Chinese intelligence agent between December 2021 and February 2023. They have both denied the allegations.

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Over the past week, Sir Keir Starmer, his ministers and Mr Powell have faced accusations they were involved in the trial being dropped.

Last week Stephen Parkinson, the director of public prosecutions and the head of the Crown Prosecution Service, took the unusual step of sending MPs a letter to claim that the government repeatedly refused to provide evidence that China represented a national security threat at the time of the allegations.

Mr Parkinson said the CPS had tried “over many months” to get the evidence it needed to carry out the prosecution, but it had not been forthcoming from the government.

Downing Street also said today it was “entirely false” to suggest the government influenced the collapse of the case because of concerns Beijing could withdraw investment in the UK.

Asked about reports in the Sunday Times which suggested a decision was taken high up in government to abandon the case, the prime minister’s official spokesman told reporters: “It is entirely false. The CPS (Crown Prosecution Service) decision to drop the case was entirely a matter for the CPS.

“There was no role for any member of this government, no minister, or special adviser, to take any decision in relation to this case. That is entirely for the CPS.”

The government had argued that China needed to have been branded an “enemy” during the period it was accused of spying for the prosecution to go ahead – effectively blaming the previous Conservative government.

The Conservatives claim the government’s rationale is an excuse because it had said many times Beijing was a national security threat while it was in government.

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The prime minister has said he wanted to be “absolutely clear no ministers were involved” in any decisions relating to the case, but notably sidestepped answering whether Mr Powell was involved.

Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, yesterday gave the government’s most definitive answer yet about whether Mr Powell was part of the reason the case was dropped weeks before they were set to go on trial.

Asked on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips if she could assure him that the national security adviser played no role in the decision, Ms Phillipson said: “Yes, I can give that assurance.

“We’re very disappointed that the CPS were not able to take forward the prosecution.”

The Liberal Democrats have called on the government to hold an inquiry into the collapse of the case.

Calum Miller, the party’s foreign affairs spokesman, said the case had “exposed appalling gaps in our government’s ability and willingness to challenge China’s espionage efforts”.

“We cannot let the government sweep this case under the rug in its efforts to cosy up to President Xi. An inquiry – preceded by rigorous scrutiny through parliament – would provide the answers the public deserves.”

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Tommy Robinson refused to give phone pin to police as he drove his Bentley to Benidorm, court hears

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Tommy Robinson refused to give phone pin to police as he drove his Bentley to Benidorm, court hears

Tommy Robinson refused to hand over his phone pin when police stopped his Bentley on the way to Benidorm, a court has heard.

He allegedly told officers “Not a chance, bruv” and said he was a journalist when they pulled him aside at the Channel Tunnel at Folkestone in July 2024.

Robinson, real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, is accused of “frustrating” counter-terrorism powers by refusing to give access to the phone.

He denies the charge.

The right-wing political activist was flanked by security guards as he arrived at Westminster Magistrates Court for the opening of the trial on Monday.

The 42-year-old faces three months in prison and/or a £2,500 fine if found guilty.

Robinson had £13,000 and 1,900 euros on him when he was stopped and told police he was going to Benidorm in Spain for a few days, said prosecutor Jo Morris.

More on Tommy Robinson

He allegedly refused to give the pin as he claimed the phone had sensitive “journalist material” on it.

He’s said to have told police: “It’s my work, I’m a journalist,” claiming it contained information about “vulnerable girls”.

The court heard Robinson was stopped in his silver Bentley SUV because he gave “short, vague replies” about what he was doing and “made no eye contact”.

PC Mitchell Thorogood told the court it was also “unusual” he bought tickets on the day rather than in advance and was in an expensive car not registered in his name.

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

When police took Robinson into an interview room and demanded his phone, he allegedly told them: “Not a chance bruv… you look like a c*** so you ain’t having it.”

Officers said they recognised Robinson when they stopped him and his lawyer, Alisdair Williamson KC, suggested the stop may have been “discriminatory” against his political beliefs.

Police can stop anyone at a UK port and hold them for six hours if they suspect they may be involved in planning or committing acts of terrorism.

They are legally obliged to answer questions and must give access to their electronic devices or face a criminal charge.

In a video on X before the hearing, Robinson said Elon Musk had “picked up the legal bill” for “this absolute state persecution”.

The case comes a month after Robinson led a huge rally in central London under the banner ‘Unite the Kingdom’.

The trial continues.

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Man arrested over 1994 murder of 13-year-old Lindsay Rimer

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Man arrested over 1994 murder of 13-year-old Lindsay Rimer

A man has been arrested on suspicion of the 1994 murder of 13-year-old Lindsay Rimer.

Police said the man was arrested at an undisclosed prison where he is serving a sentence for other offences.

The man, who is being interviewed today and tomorrow, is expected to be bailed and returned to prison while enquires continue.

Officers are also interviewing a number of potential witnesses in the Hebden Bridge and wider Halifax area.

Lindsay left her home to buy a box of corn flakes late during the evening of 7 November, 1994, but didn’t return home.

Her body was then found in a canal close to her home six months later.

Following today’s arrest, senior investigating officer, detective chief inspector James Entwistle, said: “We remain very firmly committed to doing everything we can to get justice for Lindsay, and to give her family the answers they still so desperately need after all these years.

Lindsay Rimer's body was found in a canal close to her home six months later. Pic: West Yorkshire Police
Image:
Lindsay Rimer’s body was found in a canal close to her home six months later. Pic: West Yorkshire Police

“The arrest we have made today comes as a result of our continued focus on progressing the investigation.

“We are keeping Lindsay’s family updated and, while we appreciate the understandable public interest that today’s arrest will bring, we do not anticipate any immediate developments at this stage.

“Although it is now more than thirty years since Lindsay was murdered, we remain convinced there is someone out there who has vital information that could finally help to ease her family’s pain, and we urge them do the right thing and tell us what they know.”

Anyone with further information has been urged to contact police by calling 101 quoting Operation Posemill, or sending a text or voicemail to 07707147314.

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