Connect with us

Published

on

After almost a week of falling case numbers, there are tentative signs that the spread of COVID-19 in the UK is starting to slow.

Reported cases, which include tests from a number of days previously, point to a decline in infections. But numbers based on tests conducted in the previous 24 hours do not show as clear a picture.

So, what does the data tell us about the state of the pandemic in the UK?

The picture varies across nations. While Scotland saw case rates apparently peak in early July, other parts of the UK have only just begun to see infections fall over the past few days.

The chart below shows new cases based on the day someone tests positive and the data from 19 July is subject to change.

Colin Angus, senior research fellow at the University of Sheffield, says that part of this divergence could be explained in part by Scotland’s early defeat in the Euros.

He said: “In Scotland this effect seems to have fizzled out after they were knocked out of the tournament in the group stages, while for England we are still seeing the after effects of it in the data now.”

The earlier start to the summer holidays could also explain the lag between case rates in Scotland and the rest of the UK.

But even in Scotland the data is unclear. A randomised community survey by the ONS estimates that one in every 80 Scots had COVID-19 in the week ending 17 July compared with one in 90 the week before.

Dr Simon Clarke, an associate professor at the University of Reading, said: “It’s too early to read too much into the ordinary test data – we’ve seen ups and downs before and it’s longer-term trends that matter.”

Why could case rates be falling?

One reason that cases could be falling is the start of school holidays in England, as children are often asymptomatic and are not required to get daily tests outside of term time.

But data shows only a moderate drop off in lateral flow tests in recent weeks. Meanwhile, PCR tests, which account for the vast majority of the system, continue to increase.

Another factor that could be driving infection rates is the number of people in self-isolation, which increased to more than 600,000 in the week ending 14 July.

Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor in the School of Medicine, University of Leeds, said: “The ongoing coverage of the so-called ‘pingdemic’, unhelpful as it has been, actually reflect the fact that, in response to a large surge of infections, a great many people have been asked to self-isolate recently and this could have a direct impact upon transmission.”

Is the regional picture any clearer?

In England, case rates appear to be falling across most regions among 10 to 29-year-olds, but the trend is most pronounced across all age groups in the North East and North West.

Despite the rampant spread of COVID-19 in these regions, case rates among the elderly remained low, raising the question of whether vaccines have suppressed infection in older populations.

At the peak for the North West in January, there were more than 950 cases per 100,000 over-90s, compared with just 102 in the latest wave.

But University of Sheffield’s Colin Angus says that he is not convinced that the outbreaks have fizzled out because the virus has run out of susceptible people to infect.

He said: “If you look at Bolton and Blackburn, the original hotspots in the Delta wave, you can see that cases didn’t really fall back that far and the outbreak has continued to rumble along there in the past month or so, seemingly under the radar.”

Whatever the trends, experts warn that any decline in cases could be short-lived.

The return of schools combined with less outdoor socialising in the autumn is likely to lead to a surge in infections. In addition, it is still too early to gauge what impact lifting England’s remaining restrictions on 19 July will have on case numbers.

Dr Clarke said: “As things stand, we really don’t have any data for the effect of what’s happened on 19 July. It should put upward pressure on infection numbers, as should any measure which allows people to mix more.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Why data journalism matters to Sky News

Continue Reading

UK

Hainault sword attacker Marcus Monzo found guilty of murdering boy, 14, and three attempted murders

Published

on

By

Hainault sword attacker Marcus Monzo found guilty of murdering boy, 14, and three attempted murders

A man has been found guilty of murdering a 14-year-old boy with a samurai sword as he walked to school in east London.

Marcus Arduini Monzo, 37, nearly decapitated Daniel Anjorin and attacked five others during a 20-minute rampage in Hainault on 30 April last year.

Prosecutors said he skinned and deboned his pet cat Wizard before trying “to kill as many people as he could” while under the influence of cannabis.

Monzo, a Spanish-Brazilian national from Newham in east London, admitted two charges of possessing an offensive weapon relating to two swords, which he said he bought for display purposes.

He claimed he had no memory of carrying out the attacks denied Daniel’s murder along with four charges of attempted murder, wounding with intent, aggravated burglary and possession of a bladed article.

He was cleared of one count of attempted murder – instead found guilty of wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm – and convicted of all other charges following a trial at the Old Bailey.

Daniel Anjorin was attacked in Hainault, northeast London, and suffered fatal wounds on 30 April last year. Pic: Metropolitan Police.
Image:
Daniel Anjorin, 14, died in April last year. Pic: Metropolitan Police

The court heard Monzo was a “talented martial artist” and the jury was shown footage of him unboxing a samurai sword on 4 April last year.

In the four-minute video clip, he calls the weapon “freaking sexy” as he lunges towards the camera and makes different moves.

Marcus Monzo
Image:
Marcus Monzo with a samurai sword in footage shown during the trial

The court was also shown CCTV footage from the morning of 30 April, with audible screams in one clip as Monzo drove his grey Ford Transit van at speed into pedestrian Donato Iwule.

Mr Iwule told jurors: “I thought I was dying” and “I saw blood coming out of my neck”, after he was struck with a sword before running away.

Witnesses described how Monzo was running around “like a maniac” and “looked a bit mad, like there was nothing there”.

Daniel, who had left home at around 7am wearing headphones and school sports clothes, suffered “a near-decapitation” when Monzo attacked him with the weapon from behind, prosecutor Tom Little KC told the jury.

 Handout footage from a doorbell camera of police officers tasering a sword-wielding man in Hainault, north east London, after a 14-year-old boy died after being stabbed following an attack on members of the public and two police officers. Pic: PA
Image:
Monzo was tasered by police. Pic: PA

PC Yasmin Mechem-Whitfield chased the armed attacker through alleyways before Monzo struck her three times with the 60cm blade using “extreme force”, the court heard.

He then entered a nearby house through the back door and walked upstairs before attacking sleeping couple Sindy Arias and Henry De Los Rios Polania, who he asked: “Do you believe in God?”

Mr Little said their lives were only spared because their four-year-old daughter, who was sleeping nearby, woke up and started to cry.

Monzo, who had been cornered by police, also struck Inspector Moloy Campbell once with the sword before he was finally disarmed and arrested after trying to climb onto a garage to escape.

Doorbell footage shows the moment officers shout: “Don’t move, don’t f****** move”, after he was brought to the ground by three separate taser discharges.

Monzo told police he had “many personalities”, including a “professional assassin”, and compared the events to The Hunger Games film franchise.

He wept while giving evidence as he said he did not intend to harm anybody and told jurors he had no memory of what happened.

He told how he had previously used psychedelic drugs and smoked cannabis “three or four times a week” before the attack, but denied doing so on the day.

Prosecutors said he likely suffered from a psychotic disorder with “schizophrenic-like symptoms”, including “delusional beliefs” that both he and his family were in “mortal danger”.

But Mr Little said his psychotic state was self-induced and did not meet the threshold for diminished responsibility.

Continue Reading

UK

Thousands of Eurostar passengers facing cancellations and severe delays after cable theft

Published

on

By

Thousands of Eurostar passengers facing cancellations and severe delays after cable theft

Thousands of Eurostar passengers have been suffering severe delays and last-minute cancellations due to cable theft – a day after two track fatalities caused disruption.

The latest delays come after 600 metres of copper cables were stolen overnight in the city of Lille in northern France, according to reports in the country.

Eurostar said this was forcing it to run services on alternative routes, causing extended journey times.

The company said in a statement that “full repairs are now completed” and trains resumed as normal as of 1pm UK time.

It added that “some delays can still be expected until the end of the day”.

The statement continued: “Customers have been contacted directly with updates and available options, and Eurostar is advising those due to travel today to postpone their journey with free exchanges and refunds available.

“We’re very sorry for the continued disruption and the impact this is having on our customers. Our teams are working hard to support customers in the stations.”

Money blog: Your Eurostar rights explained

Eurostar said services between Brussels/Paris and London had been experiencing disruption since the beginning of the day.

Its services were already disrupted because many trains and staff members were out of position after two fatalities on rail lines in France on Tuesday.

At least five services on its London-Paris route were cancelled on Wednesday, and seven others were delayed by around an hour.

Pic: PA
Image:
Passengers at St Pancras International station in London. Pic: PA

The operator said it was handing out water to passengers on delayed trains, and it has teams at stations to provide assistance.

Affected passengers are able to change their travel plans free of charge or request a full refund.

Images show large crowds of stranded passengers at St Pancras International station in London today.

In a post on X, Eurostar said the cable theft meant trains were likely to be “subject to severe delays and last-minute cancellations”, adding: “We advise you to cancel or postpone your trip.”

Nigel Hardman, 57, took an Avanti West Coast train from Blackpool to London Euston at 5.30am, only for him and his family to find out en route that their Eurostar trip to Paris had been cancelled.

The delays have meant they have decided to board a train to Brussels instead of Paris, meaning they have lost out on about £700 on hotel costs and connecting trains.

Delayed passengers at St Pancras. Pic: PA
Image:
Delayed passengers at St Pancras. Pic: PA

Mr Hardman, a plumber from Blackpool, said: “There’s no availability on trains to Paris – they’re all booked up. We’re going to go to Brussels and stay there, then shoot down to Strasbourg, where we were supposed to be. I only found out on an email at about 3.30am this morning, why couldn’t they have told us last night?

“And when we got here, we were in the queue for an hour before we found out the other trains to Paris were all booked up. Everyone was useless until one really organised guy was telling it to us straight. It’s going to cost us about £700 extra which is really frustrating. And it’s just a nightmare start to our trip.”

Eurostar passenger Elizabeth Romijn, 75, a yoga teacher from the Netherlands said she is used to issues with the train service, but described Wednesday’s disruption as “very chaotic”.

She was planning to make her way home, catching the train to Brussels today after visiting friends in Guildford, Sussex and has decided to wait in the station to see if she can board a train.

SHARE WITH SKY NEWS

You can share your story, pictures or video with us using our app, private messaging or email.

:: Your Report on Sky News apps

:: WhatsApp

:: Email

By sending us your video footage/ photographs/ audio you agree we can broadcast, publish and edit the material.

Ms Romijn said: “My plan is to just wait. Maybe I should go and be more proactive and go to ask one of the staff but nobody seems to know anything. And it’s quite horrible long queues.

“On the email they said, don’t go, go cancel your travel or take a voucher or something – but I thought I’m going to travel anyway. I’m just going to wait and if it’s cancelled, then I go back to Guildford where I’ve been visiting my friends.”

Read more from Sky News:
UK to buy nuclear-carrying fighter jets
Man dies after being struck by lightning on honeymoon
King and Trump won’t hold private meeting

Passengers at St Pancras International station .
Pic: PA
Image:
Passengers at St Pancras International station .
Pic: PA

Eurostar had said in a statement following the deaths on Tuesday: “We are deeply sorry to confirm that there were two separate fatalities on the LGV Nord high-speed line between Lille and Paris yesterday.

“Our thoughts are with the families and friends of those who lost their lives.

“The line was closed for much of the afternoon and evening, resulting in significant disruption to Eurostar services, including cancellations on routes to and from Paris.

“Trains on the London-Brussels-Amsterdam route continued to run with delays.

“This morning, disruption continues due to the knock-on impact of displaced trains and crew.

“Further to this, services have been further affected by an incident of cable theft on the same line near Lille.”

Continue Reading

UK

Rayner refuses to repeat chancellor’s pledge on tax hikes

Published

on

By

Rayner refuses to repeat chancellor's pledge on tax hikes

Angela Rayner has refused to repeat Rachel Reeves’ pledge that taxes will not be increased at the next budget.

Standing in for Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs, the deputy prime minister was pressed on warnings from economists that tax rises are looking increasingly inevitable in the autumn to fund the chancellor’s spending plans.

Politics Live: Deputy PM vows to take on Labour welfare rebels

The Tories want a commitment that this will not be the case in order to support the government’s welfare bill, which is under threat from a growing and significant rebellion of Labour MPs.

Shadow chancellor Mel stride, standing in for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, said even if the planned benefit cuts go through, “almost every respected economist now says tax rises are all but inevitable in the autumn”.

He said Ms Reeves promised after her last budget that this will not be the case and asked Ms Rayner to give “certainty” to businesses and repeat that pledge.

Ms Rayner said the question was “a bit rich” given the Tories raised taxes to record highs before the last election, adding: “I take no lectures”.

More on Uk Economy

Mr Stride pressed her on analysis from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) that local authorities will have to raise council tax to the maximum level allowed to pay for local services.

Angela Rayner
Image:
Angela Rayner

He said: “The IFS says that the spending review will mean the biggest council tax increases in a generation.

“A £7bn tax rise and yet the chancellor and the prime minister have repeatedly claimed that the government will not raise taxes on working people. So can I ask… why doesn’t she think the council tax is paid by working people?”

Ms Rayner again attacked the Tories’ record, saying he had “absolute nerve” as council tax “rose every single year under that government”.

She said Labour was “delivering money for local government, when they had austerity, put taxes up and ruined the British economy”.

Ms Reeves unveiled her spending review earlier this month, which outlined how much day-to-day funding government departments will get over the next three years, along with capital spending for longer-term projects.

The chancellor has insisted her plans are fully funded, but Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, has said she has left herself such little headroom that “any move in the wrong direction” for the economy would “almost certainly spark more tax rises”.

Any tax hikes would likely spark a backlash given Ms Reeves’ said last November that there would be no more tax hikes during this government’s term, following her decision to raise employer National Insurance in the autumn budget.

The government is facing further trouble as a key part of the spending review was a package of reforms aimed at shaving £5bn off the welfare budget by 2030.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Sky’s Tamara Cohen explains.

However, an unprecedented rebellion of over 100 MPs is threatening that legislation, which is due to be voted on next Tuesday.

Ms Rayner today insisted the vote will go ahead.

She said: “I’ll tell the right honourable member why we’re pressing ahead with our reforms.

“That is because we’re investing £1 billion into tailored employment support, a right to try to help more people back into work and ending reassessments for the most severely disabled who will never be able to work.

“We won’t walk away and stand by and abandon millions of people trapped in the failing system left behind by him and his colleagues.”

Continue Reading

Trending