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After almost a week of falling case numbers, there are tentative signs that the spread of COVID-19 in the UK is starting to slow.

Reported cases, which include tests from a number of days previously, point to a decline in infections. But numbers based on tests conducted in the previous 24 hours do not show as clear a picture.

So, what does the data tell us about the state of the pandemic in the UK?

The picture varies across nations. While Scotland saw case rates apparently peak in early July, other parts of the UK have only just begun to see infections fall over the past few days.

The chart below shows new cases based on the day someone tests positive and the data from 19 July is subject to change.

Colin Angus, senior research fellow at the University of Sheffield, says that part of this divergence could be explained in part by Scotland’s early defeat in the Euros.

He said: “In Scotland this effect seems to have fizzled out after they were knocked out of the tournament in the group stages, while for England we are still seeing the after effects of it in the data now.”

The earlier start to the summer holidays could also explain the lag between case rates in Scotland and the rest of the UK.

But even in Scotland the data is unclear. A randomised community survey by the ONS estimates that one in every 80 Scots had COVID-19 in the week ending 17 July compared with one in 90 the week before.

Dr Simon Clarke, an associate professor at the University of Reading, said: “It’s too early to read too much into the ordinary test data – we’ve seen ups and downs before and it’s longer-term trends that matter.”

Why could case rates be falling?

One reason that cases could be falling is the start of school holidays in England, as children are often asymptomatic and are not required to get daily tests outside of term time.

But data shows only a moderate drop off in lateral flow tests in recent weeks. Meanwhile, PCR tests, which account for the vast majority of the system, continue to increase.

Another factor that could be driving infection rates is the number of people in self-isolation, which increased to more than 600,000 in the week ending 14 July.

Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor in the School of Medicine, University of Leeds, said: “The ongoing coverage of the so-called ‘pingdemic’, unhelpful as it has been, actually reflect the fact that, in response to a large surge of infections, a great many people have been asked to self-isolate recently and this could have a direct impact upon transmission.”

Is the regional picture any clearer?

In England, case rates appear to be falling across most regions among 10 to 29-year-olds, but the trend is most pronounced across all age groups in the North East and North West.

Despite the rampant spread of COVID-19 in these regions, case rates among the elderly remained low, raising the question of whether vaccines have suppressed infection in older populations.

At the peak for the North West in January, there were more than 950 cases per 100,000 over-90s, compared with just 102 in the latest wave.

But University of Sheffield’s Colin Angus says that he is not convinced that the outbreaks have fizzled out because the virus has run out of susceptible people to infect.

He said: “If you look at Bolton and Blackburn, the original hotspots in the Delta wave, you can see that cases didn’t really fall back that far and the outbreak has continued to rumble along there in the past month or so, seemingly under the radar.”

Whatever the trends, experts warn that any decline in cases could be short-lived.

The return of schools combined with less outdoor socialising in the autumn is likely to lead to a surge in infections. In addition, it is still too early to gauge what impact lifting England’s remaining restrictions on 19 July will have on case numbers.

Dr Clarke said: “As things stand, we really don’t have any data for the effect of what’s happened on 19 July. It should put upward pressure on infection numbers, as should any measure which allows people to mix more.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Teenager guilty of murder of schoolboy Harvey Willgoose during lunch break

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Teenager guilty of murder of schoolboy Harvey Willgoose during lunch break

A 15-year-old boy has been found guilty of the murder of Sheffield schoolboy Harvey Willgoose.

Harvey, also 15, was killed by a fellow student outside their school cafeteria in February this year.

His parents, Mark and Caroline Willgoose, have told Sky News that school knife crime is “a way of life for kids”.

The defendant, who cannot be named for legal reasons, had brought a 13cm hunting knife with him into All Saints Catholic High School, Sheffield, stabbing Harvey twice in the chest just a few minutes into the lunch break.

The boy had previously admitted manslaughter but denied murder. He was found guilty by a jury on Friday.

Harvey and his father
Image:
Harvey and his father

His defence told the court the defendant had “lost control”, stabbing Harvey after years of bullying and “an intense period of fear at school”.

Moments after stabbing Harvey, he told teachers, “you know I can’t control it” and “I’m not right in the head”.

Giving evidence, the boy told the court he had no recollection of the moment he killed Harvey, something the prosecution said was “a lie”.

They told the jury the schoolboy “wanted to show he was hard” and had become “obsessed” with weapons in the lead up to Harvey’s death, with photographs of him posing with knives found on his phone.

Chris Hartley, of the Crown Prosecution Service, expressed the organisation’s “huge sympathies” for Harvey’s family and friends.

“The CPS and South Yorkshire Police were able to prove that the defendant did not lose self-control but intended to deliberately attack 15-year-old Harvey,” he said in a statement after the verdict.

“We remind teenagers that there can be horrendous and serious consequences of carrying knives. It has been proven that if you carry these weapons, you are more likely to use them or be a victim of knife crime. You are putting yourself, other people and your future at risk. Please stop carrying knives and stop putting lives in danger.”

Harvey Willgoose and his mother
Image:
Harvey Willgoose and his mother

Speaking to Sky News ahead of today’s verdict, Harvey’s mother, Caroline Willgoose, said she felt she had “led [her son] into the lion’s den”.

She said Harvey was a “school avoider” who had “anxiety” about going to school.

“We badgered Harvey into going to school but I don’t think people realise that there is a problem in all schools with knives,” says Mrs Willgoose.

“It’s a way of life now for kids, and it needs to stop.”

During the trial, it was revealed that the defendant had had previous violent outbursts at school, and, a few months before Harvey was stabbed, the school had called the police when the defendant’s mother contacted them to say she had found a weapon in her son’s bag at home.

Harvey’s parents told Sky News’ Katerina Vittozzi they feel that the school did not take previous knife-related incidents “seriously enough” and felt “100%” the outcome might have been different if they had.

The head of St Clare Catholic Multi Academy Trust – a group of schools including All Saints – also told Sky News Harvey’s death “was an unimaginable tragedy for all”.

Steve Davies said: “We think especially of Harvey’s family, loved ones and friends today. We cannot begin to imagine the immeasurable impact the loss of Harvey has had on them.

“Harvey was a much-loved, positive and outgoing pupil whose memory will be cherished by all who knew him. As a community, we have been devastated by his death, and we continue to think of him every day.”

He added: “Harvey’s death was an unimaginable tragedy for all, and one that understandably gives rise to a number of questions from his family and others.

“Now that the trial has finished, a number of investigations aimed at addressing and answering these questions will be able to proceed.

“We will engage fully and openly with them to help ensure every angle is considered and no key questions are left unresolved.”

Describing her son as “a character” who “never stopped smiling, never stopped singing”, Mrs Willgoose said she was now campaigning for “all schools and colleges” to use knife arches.

“I want people to go into schools and talk about the devastation of what knife crime does.”

In an emotional interview with Sky News’ Katerina Vittozzi, Mrs Willgoose said she felt her son was “put here for a reason” and “I can’t let go until I put things right for him”.

“There’s no winners when it comes to knife crime,” she said.

The defendant “has ruined his life, his parent have got an empty bed”, she added. “He’s got to live with this for the rest of his life.”

Harvey’s father, Mark Willgoose, said that his son had had “a short life, but a good life”.

“He crammed everything in, and you’ve just got to try and see the positives in that,” Mr Willgoose added.

“Whatever happens in court, it’ll never be justice. It’ll never be enough.

“I think we’ve just got to make sure Harvey’s death is not going to be in vain, and if whatever we do saves one life, then it’s been worth us doing it.”

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Why Rachel Reeves may want to rethink one of her pivotal policies

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Why Rachel Reeves may want to rethink one of her pivotal policies

What do we do about the non-doms? 

It’s a question more than a handful of people have been asking themselves at the Treasury lately.

Politics Hub: Follow latest updates

It had seemed simple enough. In her first budget as chancellor, Rachel Reeves promised a crackdown on the non-dom regime, which for the past 200 years has allowed residents to declare they are permanently domiciled in another country for tax purposes.

Under the scheme, non-doms, some of the richest people in the country, were not taxed on their foreign incomes.

Then that all changed.

Standing at the despatch box in October last year, the chancellor said: “I have always said that if you make Britain your home, you should pay your tax here. So today, I can confirm we will abolish the non-dom tax regime and remove the outdated concept of domicile from the tax system from April 2025.”

The hope was that the move would raise £3.8bn for the public purse. However, there are signs that the non-doms are leaving in such great numbers that the policy could end up costing the UK investment, jobs and, of course, the tax that the non-doms already pay on their UK earnings.

If the numbers don’t add up, this tax-raising policy could morph into an act of self-harm.

Rachel Reeves has plenty to ponder ahead of her next budget. File pic: Reuters
Image:
Rachel Reeves has plenty to ponder ahead of her next budget. File pic: Reuters

With the budget already under strain, a poor calculation would be costly financially. The alternative, a U-turn, could be expensive for other reasons, eroding faith in a chancellor who has already been on a turbulent ride.

So, how worried should she be?

The data on the number of non-doms in the country is published with a considerable lag. So, it will be a while before we know the full impact of this policy.

However, there is much uncertainty about how this group will behave.

While the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that the policy could generate £3.8bn for the government over the next five years, assuming between 12 and 25% of them leave, it admitted it lacked confidence in those numbers.

Worryingly for ministers, there are signs, especially in London, that the exodus could be greater.

Property sales

Analysis from the property company LonRes, shows there were 35.8% fewer transactions in May for properties in London’s most exclusive postcodes compared with a year earlier and 33.5% fewer than the pre-pandemic average.

Estate agents blame falling demand from non-dom buyers.

This comes as no surprise to Magda Wierzycka, a South African billionaire businesswoman, who runs an investment fund in London. She herself is threatening to leave the UK unless the government waters down its plans.

Magda Wierzycka, from Narwan nondom VT
Image:
Magda Wierzycka, from Narwan nondom VT

“Non-doms are leaving, as we speak, and the problem with numbers is that the consequences will only become known in the next 12 to 18 months,” she said.

“But I have absolutely no doubt, based on people I know who have already left, that the consequences would be quite significant.

“It’s not just about the people who are leaving that everyone is focusing on. It’s also about the people who are not coming, people who would have come, set up businesses, created jobs, they’re not coming. They take one look at what has happened here, and they’re not coming.”

Lack of options for non-doms

But where will they go? Britain was unusual in offering such an attractive regime. Bar a few notable exceptions, such as Italy, most countries run residency-based tax systems, meaning people pay tax to the country in which they live.

This approach meant many non-doms escaped paying tax on their foreign income altogether because they didn’t live in those countries where they earned their foreign income.

In any case, widespread double taxation treaties mean people are generally not taxed twice, although they may have to pay the difference.

In one important sense, Magda is right. It could take a while before the consequences are fully known. There are few firm data points for us to draw conclusions from right now, but the past could be illustrative.

Read more on Sky News:
Reeves warned over tax rises
What is a wealth tax?

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Are taxes going to rise?

The non-dom regime has been through repeated reform. George Osborne changed the system back in 2017 to limit it to just 15 years. Then Jeremy Hunt announced the Tories would abolish the regime altogether in one of his final budgets.

Following the 2017 reforms there was an initial shock, but the numbers stabilised, falling just 5% after a few years. The data suggests there was an initial exodus of people who were probably considering leaving anyway, but those who remained – and then arrived – were intent on staying in the UK.

So, should the government look through the numbers and hold its nerve? Not necessarily.

Have Labour crossed a red line?

Stuart Adam, a senior economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the response could be far greater this time because of some key changes under Labour.

The government will no longer allow non-doms to protect money held in trusts, so 40% inheritance tax will be due on their estates. For many, that is a red line.

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‘Rachel Reeves would hate what you just said’

Mr Adam said: “The 2017 reform deliberately built in what you might call a loophole, a way to avoid paying a lot more tax through the use of existing offshore trusts. That was a route deliberately left open to enable many people to avoid the tax.

“So it’s not then surprising that they didn’t up sticks and leave. Part of the reform that was announced last year was actually not having that kind of gap in the system to enable people to avoid the tax using trusts, and therefore you might expect to see a bigger response to the kind of reforms we’ve seen announced now, but it also means we don’t have very much idea about how big a response to expect.”

With the public finances under considerable pressure, that will offer little comfort to a chancellor who is operating on the finest of margins.

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Homelessness minister Rushanara Ali resigns after ‘extortionate’ rent hike claims

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Homelessness minister Rushanara Ali resigns after 'extortionate' rent hike claims

Homelessness minister Rushanara Ali has resigned after reportedly hiking the rent on a property she owns by hundreds of pounds – something described by one of her tenants as “extortion”.

That was just weeks after the previous tenants’ contract ended, The i Paper said.

Four tenants who rented a house in east London from Ms Ali were sent an email last November saying their lease would not be renewed, and which also gave them four months’ notice to leave, the newspaper reported.

The property was then re-listed with a £700 rent increase within weeks, the publication added.

In a letter to the prime minister, Ms Ali said that remaining in her role would be a “distraction from the ambitious work of this government”.

She added: “Further to recent reporting, I wanted to make it clear that at all times I have followed all relevant legal requirements.

“I believe I took my responsibilities and duties seriously, and the facts demonstrate this.”

Laura Jackson, one of Ms Ali’s former tenants, said she and three others collectively paid £3,300 in rent.

Weeks after she and her fellow tenants had left, the self-employed restaurant owner said she saw the house re-listed with a rent of around £4,000.

“It’s an absolute joke,” she said. “Trying to get that much money from renters is extortion.”

Sir Keir Starmer said Ms Ali's work in government would leave a 'lasting legacy'. Pic: PA
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer said Ms Ali’s work in government would leave a ‘lasting legacy’. Pic: PA

Ms Ali’s house, rented on a fixed-term contract, was put up for sale while the tenants were living there, and was only relisted as a rental because it had not sold, according to The i Paper.

The government’s Renters’ Rights Bill includes measures to ban landlords who end a tenancy to sell a property from re-listing it for six months.

The Bill, which is nearing its end stages of scrutiny in Parliament, will also abolish fixed-term tenancies and ensure landlords give four months’ notice if they want to sell their property.

Something Sir Keir’s increasingly unpopular government could have done without


Jon Craig - Chief political correspondent

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

Rushanara Ali’s swift and humiliating demise is a classic example of paying the price for the politician’s crime of “Do as I say, not as I do”.

She was Labour’s minister for homelessness, for goodness’ sake, yet she ejected tenants from her near-£1m town house then hiked the rent.

A more egregious case of ministerial double standards it would be difficult to imagine. She had to go and was no doubt told by 10 Downing Street to go quickly.

MP for the East End constituency of Bethnal Green and Stepney, Ms Ali was the very model of a modern Labour minister: a degree in PPE from Oxford University.

In her resignation letter to Sir Keir Starmer, she said she is quitting “with a heavy heart”. Really? She presumably didn’t have a heavy heart when she ejected her four tenants.

She’d previously spoken out against “private renters being exploited” and said the government would “empower people to challenge unreasonable rent increases”.

She was charging her four former tenants £3,300 a month. Yet after they moved out, she charged her new tenants £4,000, a rent increase of more than 20%.

In an area represented by the left-wing firebrand George Galloway from 2005 to 2010, Ms Ali had a majority of under 1,700 at the election last year.

Ominously for Labour, an independent candidate was second and the Greens third. No doubt Jeremy Corbyn’s new party will also stand next time.

In her resignation letter to the PM, Ms Ali said continuing in her ministerial role would be a distraction. Too right.

A distraction Sir Keir and his increasingly unpopular government could have done without.

Responding to her resignation, shadow housing secretary Sir James Cleverly said: “I said that her actions were total hypocrisy and that she should go if the accusations were shown to be true.”

A Liberal Democrat spokesperson said: “Rushanara Ali fundamentally misunderstood her role. Her job was to tackle homelessness, not to increase it.”

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Tropical Storm Dexter to bring potential heatwave next week

Previously, a spokesperson for Ms Ali said the tenants “stayed for the entirety of their fixed term contract, and were informed they could stay beyond the expiration of the fixed term, while the property remained on the market, but this was not taken up, and they decided to leave the property”.

The prime minister thanked Ms Ali for her “diligent work” and for helping to “deliver this government’s ambitious agenda”.

Sir Keir Starmer said her work in putting in measures to repeal the Vagrancy Act would have a “significant impact”.

And he said she had been trying to encourage “more people to engage and participate in our democracy”, something that would leave a “lasting legacy”.

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