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After almost a week of falling case numbers, there are tentative signs that the spread of COVID-19 in the UK is starting to slow.

Reported cases, which include tests from a number of days previously, point to a decline in infections. But numbers based on tests conducted in the previous 24 hours do not show as clear a picture.

So, what does the data tell us about the state of the pandemic in the UK?

The picture varies across nations. While Scotland saw case rates apparently peak in early July, other parts of the UK have only just begun to see infections fall over the past few days.

The chart below shows new cases based on the day someone tests positive and the data from 19 July is subject to change.

Colin Angus, senior research fellow at the University of Sheffield, says that part of this divergence could be explained in part by Scotland’s early defeat in the Euros.

He said: “In Scotland this effect seems to have fizzled out after they were knocked out of the tournament in the group stages, while for England we are still seeing the after effects of it in the data now.”

The earlier start to the summer holidays could also explain the lag between case rates in Scotland and the rest of the UK.

But even in Scotland the data is unclear. A randomised community survey by the ONS estimates that one in every 80 Scots had COVID-19 in the week ending 17 July compared with one in 90 the week before.

Dr Simon Clarke, an associate professor at the University of Reading, said: “It’s too early to read too much into the ordinary test data – we’ve seen ups and downs before and it’s longer-term trends that matter.”

Why could case rates be falling?

One reason that cases could be falling is the start of school holidays in England, as children are often asymptomatic and are not required to get daily tests outside of term time.

But data shows only a moderate drop off in lateral flow tests in recent weeks. Meanwhile, PCR tests, which account for the vast majority of the system, continue to increase.

Another factor that could be driving infection rates is the number of people in self-isolation, which increased to more than 600,000 in the week ending 14 July.

Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor in the School of Medicine, University of Leeds, said: “The ongoing coverage of the so-called ‘pingdemic’, unhelpful as it has been, actually reflect the fact that, in response to a large surge of infections, a great many people have been asked to self-isolate recently and this could have a direct impact upon transmission.”

Is the regional picture any clearer?

In England, case rates appear to be falling across most regions among 10 to 29-year-olds, but the trend is most pronounced across all age groups in the North East and North West.

Despite the rampant spread of COVID-19 in these regions, case rates among the elderly remained low, raising the question of whether vaccines have suppressed infection in older populations.

At the peak for the North West in January, there were more than 950 cases per 100,000 over-90s, compared with just 102 in the latest wave.

But University of Sheffield’s Colin Angus says that he is not convinced that the outbreaks have fizzled out because the virus has run out of susceptible people to infect.

He said: “If you look at Bolton and Blackburn, the original hotspots in the Delta wave, you can see that cases didn’t really fall back that far and the outbreak has continued to rumble along there in the past month or so, seemingly under the radar.”

Whatever the trends, experts warn that any decline in cases could be short-lived.

The return of schools combined with less outdoor socialising in the autumn is likely to lead to a surge in infections. In addition, it is still too early to gauge what impact lifting England’s remaining restrictions on 19 July will have on case numbers.

Dr Clarke said: “As things stand, we really don’t have any data for the effect of what’s happened on 19 July. It should put upward pressure on infection numbers, as should any measure which allows people to mix more.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Sophie Evans: Man jailed for life for murdering son’s girlfriend after school run

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Sophie Evans: Man jailed for life for murdering son's girlfriend after school run

A man has been jailed for life for murdering his son’s girlfriend after she returned home from the school run.

Officers from Dyfed-Powys Police were called to an address on Bigyn Road in Llanelli, Carmarthenshire, on 5 July last year.

Sophie Evans, 30, had sustained 72 separate injuries on the outside of the body, “all but three of them new injuries”.

Richard Jones, who is now 50, believed he was “being taken advantage of financially” by Ms Evans and his son, with whom she was in a relationship.

While the purpose of Jones’s visit was “purely normal”, he confronted her on that morning about his suspicions and Ms Evans’s reaction was such that Jones “lost [his] temper”.

He subjected Ms Evans to “gross violence” before ultimately strangling her and leaving the property to run errands, including ordering a new bank card and buying pastries from a bakery.

Richard Jones. Pic: Dyfed-Powys Police
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Richard Jones. Pic: Dyfed-Powys Police

‘Last time on their school run’

During sentencing on Monday, the defendant kept his head bowed for most of the hearing.

He will have to serve at least 20 years behind bars before he can be considered for release by the parole board.

Swansea Crown Court heard Ms Evans was the mother of two young children.

Passing his sentence, Judge Geraint Walters said Ms Evans “had just taken her two children for the last time on their school run” prior to the attack.

“She wasn’t to know that when she parted company with them that morning,” he added.

The court heard the Jones believed he was being defrauded by Ms Evans and his son.

“There is clear evidence, that in the days leading up to this, that you had begun harbouring thoughts that Sophie Evans and your own son were in fact financially scamming you,” he said.

“What precisely brought about that view is difficult to determine.”

Judge Walters said Jones “lost [his] temper when [he] didn’t get the answer that [he] thought [he] deserved”.

He added that, having lost his temper, the defendant “subjected [Ms Evans] to gross violence over a period of time, before you ultimately extinguished her life by strangulation”.

The court was told in evidence that at the time of the attack, Ms Evans was wearing only a bath towel.

‘The rock of our family’

In a victim personal statement, Ms Evans’s sister Kerry Quinlan told the court she was “the rock of our family”.

She said Ms Evans was taken from them in a “senseless and cruel act”.

“Words cannot express fully how much of a loss this has been to her children,” she added.

“When they cry themselves to sleep wanting their mum, she isn’t there and never will be.”

Ms Quinlan added that Jones had “taken everything from us, all in the most despicable way possible”.

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Ms Evans’s partner at the time, and the defendant’s son, Jamie Davies, said in a victim personal statement, read on his behalf, that they had both “trusted” Jones, and that Ms Evans had even been planning the defendant’s 50th birthday.

“The thought of having to live my life without Sophie causes me extreme pain and heartache,” he added.

Prosecuting, Michael Jones KC said the offence was aggravated by the defendant’s previous convictions and the fact Ms Evans was murdered in her home.

In mitigation, David Elias KC said there was a “lack of premeditation”.

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Third man charged with murder over house fire in Bradford that killed mother and her three children

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Third man charged with murder over house fire in Bradford that killed mother and her three children

A third man has been charged with murder over a house fire that killed a mother and her three children in Bradford last year.

Bryonie Gawith, 29, Denisty Birtle, nine, Oscar Birtle, five, and 22-month-old Aubree Birtle were killed in the fire on 21 August 2024.

Sharaz Ali, 39, from Bradford, has been charged with four counts of murder and one count of attempted murder.

He will appear at Bradford Magistrates Court today.

Two other men, Mohammed Shabir, 44, and Calum Sunderland, 25, both of Keighley, are due to go on trial next week after pleading not guilty to murdering Ms Gawith and the three children, and attempting to murder Ms Gawith’s sister, Antonia.

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The children’s father Jonathan said at the time he was “absolutely distraught” by the “sudden loss” of his fiancee and “three beautiful children”.

“Bryonie and I were together for a long time, and we had a good life together. She was a beautiful woman and a loving mother to Oscar, Aubree and Denisty,” he said.

“I loved them with all my heart and if I had the chance, I would take their place in a heartbeat. I cannot imagine life without them.”

A family statement added: “Our B (Ms Gawith) was the life and soul of the party, music was a big part of her life, she loved music, singing and dancing, she would always be singing and dancing with Chuch (Denisty), Oggy (Oscar) and Strawberry (Aubree).

“B was always a really happy, joyful, bubbly beautiful woman, who cared for everyone and was loved by everyone, her kids were everything to her, her whole life.

“Oggy had the cheekiest smile, he was cheeky but he was a shy boy, Strawbs was shy and bashful with big blue eyes and blonde hair and Chuch was a beautiful, confident, outgoing and creative young girl.

“We are still trying to comprehend what has happened to our beautiful family. No words can describe how we are feeling and no words could ever make up for the profound loss we are now faced with.”

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Liam Payne’s family criticise media for causing ‘indescribable damage’

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Liam Payne's family criticise media for causing 'indescribable damage'

The family of pop star Liam Payne has criticised the media for causing “indescribable, lasting damage” in the wake of his death.

The singer, 31, died in October last year, after falling from a hotel balcony in Argentina.

He was honoured with a video montage, played at Saturday night’s BRIT awards, celebrating his legacy – with clips including his time on X-Factor and during his time with One Direction. The band won seven BRIT awards before they split in 2016.

In a statement, released to the media after the tribute was played, his family called the death an “unspeakable tragedy”.

The family also criticised the “attention and speculation” in the press that caused “indescribable, lasting damage on the family, particularly on Liam’s son, who is trying to process emotions which no seven-year-old should have to experience”.

It said the family accepted the Court of Appeal’s decision to drop all charges in relation to Payne’s death.

File photo dated 19/02/14 of (left to right) Zayn Malik, Harry Styles, Liam Payne, Louis Tomlinson and Nial Horan from One Direction with their Awards in the press room at the 2014 Brit Awards at the O2 Arena, London.. Liam Payne has died after falling from the third floor of a hotel in Buenos Aires, according to local officials. He was 31. Issue date: Wednesday October 16, 2024.
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One Direction pictured at the 2014 Brit Awards – the band won seven gongs during their time together. Pic: PA

Louis Tomlinson, Harry Styles, Zian Malik, Liam Payne & Niall Horan of One Direction One Direction meet fans at HMV Oxford Circu s in 2011.
Pic:MediaPunch/AP
Pic: AP
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One Direction, pictured in 2011. Pic: AP


Charges were dropped against three defendants: Payne’s friend Roger Nores, who had accompanied him during his trip to Buenos Aires; Gilda Martin, the manager of the Casa Sur Palermo Hotel where Payne died; and Esteban Grassi, the hotel’s main receptionist.

Two others are still facing prosecution for allegedly supplying Payne with drugs. Supplying drugs in Argentina carries a sentence of up to 15 years in prison.

Toxicology tests revealed that before his death, he had traces of alcohol, cocaine, and a prescription antidepressant in his body. A postmortem ruled his cause of death as “polytrauma” from multiple injuries and internal and external bleeding.

The family’s statement in full

Liam’s death was an unspeakable tragedy. This is a time of tremendous grief and pain for those who knew and loved him.

“Liam ought to have had a long life ahead of him. Instead, Bear has lost his father, Geoff and Karen have lost their son, Ruth and Nicola have lost their brother and all of Liam’s friends and fans have lost someone they held very dear.

We understand that the investigation into Liam’s death was absolutely necessary and the family recognises the work done by the Argentinian authorities. However, the family accepts the Court of Appeal’s decision to drop all charges.

The constant media attention and speculation which has accompanied the process has exacted indescribable, lasting damage on the family, particularly on Liam’s son, who is trying to process emotions which no seven-year-old should have to experience.

The family has always wished for privacy to grieve and asks that they be given the space and time to do so.

This weekend, at the Brit Awards, Liam was remembered for his phenomenal contribution to British music and for his wider, positive impact on millions of adoring fans the world over.

We joined in that celebration of his life and will forever remember the joy that his music brought to the world.

Liam, you are so loved and missed.

‘Beautiful’ Brits tribute

After the video aired, Payne’s former band member Louis Tomlinson thanked the BRIT Awards and said: “Beautiful tribute. Miss you always, brother x.”

Awards host Jack Whitehall introduced the tribute to the singer and said: “He achieved so much in the short time that he was on this earth, and was not only a supremely gifted musician but an incredibly kind soul who touched the lives of everyone he came into contact with.

Themed  tributes for singer Liam Payne are seen outside St. Mary's Church on the day of his funeral.
Pic: Reuters
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Themed tributes for singer Liam Payne were seen outside St. Mary’s Church on the day of his funeral.
Pic: Reuters

Fans sing One Direction around a candle-lit tribute for Liam Payne
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Fans sing One Direction around a candle-lit tribute for Liam Payne

“We have so many amazing memories with Liam here at The BRITs. So, tonight we celebrate his legacy and look back and remember, the remarkable Liam Payne.”

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