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After almost a week of falling case numbers, there are tentative signs that the spread of COVID-19 in the UK is starting to slow.

Reported cases, which include tests from a number of days previously, point to a decline in infections. But numbers based on tests conducted in the previous 24 hours do not show as clear a picture.

So, what does the data tell us about the state of the pandemic in the UK?

The picture varies across nations. While Scotland saw case rates apparently peak in early July, other parts of the UK have only just begun to see infections fall over the past few days.

The chart below shows new cases based on the day someone tests positive and the data from 19 July is subject to change.

Colin Angus, senior research fellow at the University of Sheffield, says that part of this divergence could be explained in part by Scotland’s early defeat in the Euros.

He said: “In Scotland this effect seems to have fizzled out after they were knocked out of the tournament in the group stages, while for England we are still seeing the after effects of it in the data now.”

The earlier start to the summer holidays could also explain the lag between case rates in Scotland and the rest of the UK.

But even in Scotland the data is unclear. A randomised community survey by the ONS estimates that one in every 80 Scots had COVID-19 in the week ending 17 July compared with one in 90 the week before.

Dr Simon Clarke, an associate professor at the University of Reading, said: “It’s too early to read too much into the ordinary test data – we’ve seen ups and downs before and it’s longer-term trends that matter.”

Why could case rates be falling?

One reason that cases could be falling is the start of school holidays in England, as children are often asymptomatic and are not required to get daily tests outside of term time.

But data shows only a moderate drop off in lateral flow tests in recent weeks. Meanwhile, PCR tests, which account for the vast majority of the system, continue to increase.

Another factor that could be driving infection rates is the number of people in self-isolation, which increased to more than 600,000 in the week ending 14 July.

Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor in the School of Medicine, University of Leeds, said: “The ongoing coverage of the so-called ‘pingdemic’, unhelpful as it has been, actually reflect the fact that, in response to a large surge of infections, a great many people have been asked to self-isolate recently and this could have a direct impact upon transmission.”

Is the regional picture any clearer?

In England, case rates appear to be falling across most regions among 10 to 29-year-olds, but the trend is most pronounced across all age groups in the North East and North West.

Despite the rampant spread of COVID-19 in these regions, case rates among the elderly remained low, raising the question of whether vaccines have suppressed infection in older populations.

At the peak for the North West in January, there were more than 950 cases per 100,000 over-90s, compared with just 102 in the latest wave.

But University of Sheffield’s Colin Angus says that he is not convinced that the outbreaks have fizzled out because the virus has run out of susceptible people to infect.

He said: “If you look at Bolton and Blackburn, the original hotspots in the Delta wave, you can see that cases didn’t really fall back that far and the outbreak has continued to rumble along there in the past month or so, seemingly under the radar.”

Whatever the trends, experts warn that any decline in cases could be short-lived.

The return of schools combined with less outdoor socialising in the autumn is likely to lead to a surge in infections. In addition, it is still too early to gauge what impact lifting England’s remaining restrictions on 19 July will have on case numbers.

Dr Clarke said: “As things stand, we really don’t have any data for the effect of what’s happened on 19 July. It should put upward pressure on infection numbers, as should any measure which allows people to mix more.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Diogo Jota: Liverpool players join mourners as Premier League star and his brother Andre Silva buried in Portugal

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Diogo Jota: Liverpool players join mourners as Premier League star and his brother Andre Silva buried in Portugal

Liverpool players past and present have joined the family and friends of Diogo Jota and his brother Andre Silva for their funeral in Portugal.

A service was held in the Igreja Matriz de Gondomar church in their hometown of Gondomar near Porto in northern Portugal on Saturday morning.

Mourners lined the streets and some in the crowd clapped as the brothers’ coffins were carried into the church.

The funeral – in pictures


Liverpool's captain Virgil van Dijk arrives on the day of the funeral ceremony of Liverpool's Portuguese soccer player Diogo Jota and his b
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Liverpool’s captain Virgil van Dijk. Pic: Reuters

Liverpool's Ryan Gravenberch and Cody Gakpo (right) arrive at the funeral of Diogo Jota and Andre Silva
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Liverpool’s Ryan Gravenberch and Cody Gakpo (right) arrive at the funeral of Diogo Jota and Andre Silva. Pic: PA

Jota, 28, leaves behind his wife of only 11 days, Rute Cardoso, and three young children.

His younger brother, 25, was an attacking midfielder for Penafiel in the second tier of Portuguese football.

Liverpool manager Arne Slot, captain Virgil Van Dijk and teammates including Andy Robertson, Conor Bradley, Ryan Gravenberch, Cody Gakpo, Curtis Jones, Darwin Nunez and Joe Gomez were seen at the service.

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Former teammates Jordan Henderson, James Milner and Fabinho were also there.

Van Dijk carried a red wreath with Jota’s number 20, while Robertson had a wreath featuring number 30, Silva’s number at Penafiel.

Diogo Jota funeral
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Manchester United and Portugal player Bruno Fernandes. Pic: PA


Liverpool's captain Virgil van Dijk and Liverpool's player Andrew Robertson arrive on the day of the funeral ceremony of Liverpool's Portug
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Liverpool’s captain Virgil van Dijk and Liverpool’s player Andrew Robertson. Pic: Reuters

Some of Jota’s teammates in the Portuguese national side also attended, including Bruno Fernandes, of Manchester United, Ruben Dias and Bernardo Silva, of Manchester City, Joao Felix and Renato Veiga, of Chelsea, Nelson Semedo, from Wolves, Joao Moutinho and Rui Patricio.

Ruben Neves was one of the pallbearers after flying in from Florida where he played for Al Hilal in the Club World Cup quarter-final on Friday night.

‘More than a friend’

In a post published on Instagram before the service, he told Jota he had been “more than a friend, we’re family, and we won’t stop being that way just because you’ve decided to sign a contract a little further away from us!”

Jota’s fellow Liverpool midfielder, Alexis Mac Allister, said on Instagram: “I can’t believe it. I’ll always remember your smiles, your anger, your intelligence, your camaraderie, and everything that made you a person. It hurts so much; we’ll miss you. Rest in peace, dear Diogo.”

Porto FC president Andre Villas-Boas and Portugal national team manager Roberto Martinez were also in attendance.

‘With us forever’

Speaking after the ceremony, Martinez said the period since their deaths had been “really, really sad days, as you can imagine, but today we showed we are a large, close family.

“Their spirit will be with us forever.”

The service was private, but the words spoken by the Bishop of Porto, Manuel Linda, were broadcast to those standing outside the church.

He told Jota’s children, who were not at the service, that he was praying for them specifically, as well as their mother and grandparents.

“There are no words, but there are feelings,” he said, adding: “We also suffer a lot and we are with you emotionally.”

The brothers died after a Lamborghini they were travelling in burst into flames following a suspected tyre blowout in the early hours of Thursday morning.

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No other vehicles are said to have been involved in the incident.

Liverpool have delayed the return of their players for pre-season following Jota’s death and players past and present paid tribute to him and his brother on social media.

Flowers have been left outside Anfield, where flags have been lowered to half-mast and all club shops, museums and tours have been closed until Monday.

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Rachel Reeves hints at tax rises in autumn budget after welfare bill U-turn

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Rachel Reeves hints at tax rises in autumn budget after welfare bill U-turn

Rachel Reeves has hinted that taxes are likely to be raised this autumn after a major U-turn on the government’s controversial welfare bill.

Sir Keir Starmer’s Universal Credit and Personal Independent Payment Bill passed through the House of Commons on Tuesday after multiple concessions and threats of a major rebellion.

MPs ended up voting for only one part of the plan: a cut to universal credit (UC) sickness benefits for new claimants from £97 a week to £50 from 2026/7.

Initially aimed at saving £5.5bn, it now leaves the government with an estimated £5.5bn black hole – close to breaching Ms Reeves’s fiscal rules set out last year.

Read more:
Yet another fiscal ‘black hole’? Here’s why this one matters

Success or failure: One year of Keir in nine charts

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Rachel Reeves’s fiscal dilemma

In an interview with The Guardian, the chancellor did not rule out tax rises later in the year, saying there were “costs” to watering down the welfare bill.

“I’m not going to [rule out tax rises], because it would be irresponsible for a chancellor to do that,” Ms Reeves told the outlet.

More on Rachel Reeves

“We took the decisions last year to draw a line under unfunded commitments and economic mismanagement.

“So we’ll never have to do something like that again. But there are costs to what happened.”

Meanwhile, The Times reported that, ahead of the Commons vote on the welfare bill, Ms Reeves told cabinet ministers the decision to offer concessions would mean taxes would have to be raised.

The outlet reported that the chancellor said the tax rises would be smaller than those announced in the 2024 budget, but that she is expected to have to raise tens of billions more.

It comes after Ms Reeves said she was “totally” up to continuing as chancellor after appearing tearful at Prime Minister’s Questions.

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Why was the chancellor crying at PMQs?

Criticising Sir Keir for the U-turns on benefit reform during PMQs, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the chancellor looked “absolutely miserable”, and questioned whether she would remain in post until the next election.

Sir Keir did not explicitly say that she would, and Ms Badenoch interjected to say: “How awful for the chancellor that he couldn’t confirm that she would stay in place.”

In her first comments after the incident, Ms Reeves said she was having a “tough day” before adding: “People saw I was upset, but that was yesterday.

“Today’s a new day and I’m just cracking on with the job.”

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Reeves is ‘totally’ up for the job

Sir Keir also told Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby on Thursday that he “didn’t appreciate” that Ms Reeves was crying in the Commons.

“In PMQs, it is bang, bang, bang,” he said. “That’s what it was yesterday.

“And therefore, I was probably the last to appreciate anything else going on in the chamber, and that’s just a straightforward human explanation, common sense explanation.”

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Diogo Jota and Andre Silva’s funeral in pictures

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Diogo Jota and Andre Silva's funeral in pictures

The family and friends of Diogo Jota and his brother Andre Silva have been joined by Liverpool stars past and present and other Portuguese players at the pair’s funeral near Porto.

The Liverpool forward, 28, and his brother died in a car crash in Spain on Thursday.

Pictures below show the funeral at the Igreja Matriz de Gondomar church in the town of Gondomar near Porto. Click here for our liveblog coverage of the day’s events.

Jota's wife Rute Cardoso arrives for the funeral of him and his brother his brother Andre Silva. Pic: Reuters
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Diogo Jota’s wife Rute Cardoso arrives for the funeral of him and his brother Andre Silva. Pic: Reuters


Liverpool's captain Virgil van Dijk and Liverpool's player Andrew Robertson arrive on the day of the funeral ceremony of Liverpool's Portug
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Liverpool players Virgil van Dijk and Andrew Robertson arrive for the funeral. Pic: Reuters

Liverpool's captain Virgil van Dijk and Liverpool's player Andrew Robertson arrive for the funeral of Diogo Jota. Pic: Reuters
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Van Dijk carried a wreath with Jota’s number 20 while Andrew Robertson’s had a 30 for Andre Silva. Pic: Reuters


Liverpool's captain Virgil van Dijk arrives on the day of the funeral ceremony of Liverpool's Portuguese soccer player Diogo Jota and his b
Image:
Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk. Pic: Reuters

Portugal's Ruben Neves arrives at the funeral of Diogo Jota and Andre Silva being held at Igreja Matriz de Gondomar in the town of Gondomar near Porto. The Liverpool and Portugal forward died along with his younger brother Andre Silva in the accident in Zamora on Thursday morning. Picture date: Saturday July 5, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: PA Wire.
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Portugal player Ruben Neves arrives at the funeral. Pic: PA

Liverpool's Joe Gomez and Arne Slot arrive at the funeral of Diogo Jota and Andre Silva being held at Igreja Matriz de Gondomar in the town of Gondomar near Porto. The Liverpool and Portugal forward died along with his younger brother Andre Silva in the accident in Zamora on Thursday morning. Picture date: Saturday July 5, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: PA Wire.
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Liverpool’s Joe Gomez and manager Arne Slot arrive at the funeral of Diogo Jota and Andre Silva. Pic; PA

Liverpool's Ryan Gravenberch and Cody Gakpo (right) arrive at the funeral of Diogo Jota and Andre Silva
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Liverpool’s Ryan Gravenberch and Cody Gakpo (right) arrive at the funeral of Diogo Jota and Andre Silva

Manchester City and Portugal player Bernardo Silva arrives at the funeral of Diogo Jota and Andre Silva being held at Igreja Matriz de Gondomar in the town of Gondomar near Porto. The Liverpool and Portugal forward died along with his younger brother Andre Silva in the accident in Zamora on Thursday morning. Picture date: Saturday July 5, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: PA Wire.
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Manchester City and Portugal player Bernardo Silva arrives at the funeral. Pic: AP

The coffins of Diogo Jota and Andre Silva are brought into the Igreja Matriz de Gondomar in the town of Gondomar near Porto. The Liverpool and Portugal forward died along with his younger brother Andre Silva in the accident in Zamora on Thursday morning. Picture date: Saturday July 5, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: PA Wire.
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The coffins are carried to the church. Pic: PA

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Miguell Rocha played with Jota for around ten years with Gondomar Sport Clube in Portugal.

People line up as they wait to enter at a church where the bodies of Liverpool forward Diogo Jota and his brother Andr.. Silva have been brought for a wake and funeral in Gondomar, near Porto, Portugal, on Friday, July 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)
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People line up to enter the church. Pic: AP


Pallbearers carry the coffins of Liverpool's Portuguese soccer player Diogo Jota and his brother Andre Silva, who died in a car crash near
Image:
Pallbearers carry the coffins of Diogo Jota and his brother Andre Silva

Pallbearers carry the coffins of Liverpool's Portuguese soccer player Diogo Jota and his brother Andre Silva, who died in a car crash near Z
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Pic: Reuters

People crowd outside the church during the funeral of Diogo Jota and his brother Andr.. Silva, in Gondomar, near Porto, Portugal, on Saturday, July 5, 2025. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)
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Pic: AP


People gather outside the Chapel of the Resurrection, on the day of the funeral ceremony of Liverpool's Portuguese soccer player Diogo Jota
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People gather outside the Chapel of the Resurrection. Pic: Reuters

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The former captain was seen wiping away tears as he read messages and laid his tribute down.

Fans pay their respects outside Anfield Stadium, on the day of the funeral of Liverpool soccer player Diogo Jota in Portugal, in Liverpool,
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Fans pay their respects outside Anfield in Liverpool. Pic: Reuters


A board displays a picture of Liverpool soccer player Diogo Jota as tribute on the day of his funeral in Portugal, outside Anfield Stadium
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A board with a picture of Diogo Jota outside Anfield Stadium. Pic: PA

The coffins of Diogo Jota and Andre Silva are brought into the Igreja Matriz de Gondomar in the town of Gondomar near Porto. The Liverpool and Portugal forward died along with his younger brother Andre Silva in the accident in Zamora on Thursday morning. Picture date: Saturday July 5, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: PA Wire.
Image:
The coffins are carried to the church. Pic: PA

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