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After almost a week of falling case numbers, there are tentative signs that the spread of COVID-19 in the UK is starting to slow.

Reported cases, which include tests from a number of days previously, point to a decline in infections. But numbers based on tests conducted in the previous 24 hours do not show as clear a picture.

So, what does the data tell us about the state of the pandemic in the UK?

The picture varies across nations. While Scotland saw case rates apparently peak in early July, other parts of the UK have only just begun to see infections fall over the past few days.

The chart below shows new cases based on the day someone tests positive and the data from 19 July is subject to change.

Colin Angus, senior research fellow at the University of Sheffield, says that part of this divergence could be explained in part by Scotland’s early defeat in the Euros.

He said: “In Scotland this effect seems to have fizzled out after they were knocked out of the tournament in the group stages, while for England we are still seeing the after effects of it in the data now.”

The earlier start to the summer holidays could also explain the lag between case rates in Scotland and the rest of the UK.

But even in Scotland the data is unclear. A randomised community survey by the ONS estimates that one in every 80 Scots had COVID-19 in the week ending 17 July compared with one in 90 the week before.

Dr Simon Clarke, an associate professor at the University of Reading, said: “It’s too early to read too much into the ordinary test data – we’ve seen ups and downs before and it’s longer-term trends that matter.”

Why could case rates be falling?

One reason that cases could be falling is the start of school holidays in England, as children are often asymptomatic and are not required to get daily tests outside of term time.

But data shows only a moderate drop off in lateral flow tests in recent weeks. Meanwhile, PCR tests, which account for the vast majority of the system, continue to increase.

Another factor that could be driving infection rates is the number of people in self-isolation, which increased to more than 600,000 in the week ending 14 July.

Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor in the School of Medicine, University of Leeds, said: “The ongoing coverage of the so-called ‘pingdemic’, unhelpful as it has been, actually reflect the fact that, in response to a large surge of infections, a great many people have been asked to self-isolate recently and this could have a direct impact upon transmission.”

Is the regional picture any clearer?

In England, case rates appear to be falling across most regions among 10 to 29-year-olds, but the trend is most pronounced across all age groups in the North East and North West.

Despite the rampant spread of COVID-19 in these regions, case rates among the elderly remained low, raising the question of whether vaccines have suppressed infection in older populations.

At the peak for the North West in January, there were more than 950 cases per 100,000 over-90s, compared with just 102 in the latest wave.

But University of Sheffield’s Colin Angus says that he is not convinced that the outbreaks have fizzled out because the virus has run out of susceptible people to infect.

He said: “If you look at Bolton and Blackburn, the original hotspots in the Delta wave, you can see that cases didn’t really fall back that far and the outbreak has continued to rumble along there in the past month or so, seemingly under the radar.”

Whatever the trends, experts warn that any decline in cases could be short-lived.

The return of schools combined with less outdoor socialising in the autumn is likely to lead to a surge in infections. In addition, it is still too early to gauge what impact lifting England’s remaining restrictions on 19 July will have on case numbers.

Dr Clarke said: “As things stand, we really don’t have any data for the effect of what’s happened on 19 July. It should put upward pressure on infection numbers, as should any measure which allows people to mix more.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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500 families in Oxford call for maternity unit to be investigated

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500 families in Oxford call for maternity unit to be investigated

Hours after giving birth, with her son rushed away to a high dependency unit, as she lay broken and bleeding, Morgan Joines overheard a midwife blaming her. 

Her son had been born with wet lung after an emergency and traumatic caesarean section.

“I overheard [the midwife] tell a student nurse I was the reason my son was ill, because I was too lazy to push,” she told Sky News.

“I was broken. I genuinely believed for ages afterwards that I had failed my son.

“I thought I was the reason he was ill.”

Her son was born at John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford, part of the Oxford University’s Hospital Trust. Morgan is one of more than 500 families who say they have been harmed by maternity care at the Trust.

On Monday, the health secretary, Wes Streeting, announced a “rapid” national investigation into NHS maternity services.

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A taskforce, chaired by Mr Streeting and made up of experts and bereaved families, will first investigate up to ten of the most concerning maternity and neonatal units.

And campaigners – calling themselves the Families Failed by OUH Maternity Services – are calling for Oxford to be on that initial list.

‘I thought I was going to die’

Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust has been rated "requires improvement" for its maternity services

The unit was rated “requires improvement” in its last inspection by the government’s watchdog, the Care Quality Commission, in April 2023.

The CQC flagged issues around maintaining patient dignity, and said medicines were not always safely stored and managed. The unit did not manage the control of infection consistently it said, and wards were not always kept clean.

One mum told the campaign group she thought she was going to die after being left alone while in labour and denied pain relief.

Another said she is reluctant to consider having another child and feels a “profound loss of trust in the NHS”.

Trust to meet campaign group

Yvonne Christley, Chief Nursing Officer at OUH, said she apologised “for not being able to respond in detail about individual patient cases”.

“We regret any instance where we fail to provide the service that women and their families should expect. When this happens, we make every effort to review individual cases to understand what went wrong and how we can improve.”

She said the trust “make every effort” to keep women and families informed of what action it has taken, and said it is committed to maintaining an open dialogue with community groups.

“The Trust has agreed to meet with the campaign group and is eager to collaborate with them to implement the necessary changes and restore confidence in our services. These meetings are currently being scheduled.”

Caesarean sections account for approximately 40% of all births at OUH.

A ‘degrading strip wash’

A few hours after Morgan’s son had been whisked away to another part of the hospital, a nurse tried to force her to take oramorph, a high strength painkiller, she said.

When she declined to take the drug, having previously had a bad reaction, she said staff “claimed I was being difficult”.

“[They said] to just take the meds and get it over and done with.”

Morgan Joines overheard a midwife blaming her for her son's condition when he was born
Image:
Morgan Joines overheard a midwife blaming her for her son’s condition when he was born

When Morgan was unable to get out of bed, she says the same nurse then gave her a “degrading” strip wash, without her consent.

The unit, she said, felt like it was against C-sections.

“Even though it was recommended by doctors that I had caesarean, it was medically necessary, I felt I should have done more to help him,” Morgan said.

Waiting eight hours for a C-section

When Kate* was 38 weeks pregnant with her third IVF baby, she was induced.

The doctors had tried to burst her waters, but realised her daughter was breech when the midwife felt her feet near the bottom of the birth canal, telling her: “I’m glad those didn’t break, I think I just felt a foot.”

At 11pm Kate reluctantly agreed to a C-section, but was told it was “safer to wait until the light of day” to go down to theatre.

She was sent away to an observation area experiencing intense contractions for more than six hours. In those hours, she said she was abandoned without pain relief and was bleeding.

“I felt so alone in the dead of night. My husband had been sent home, and I just wanted someone to talk to, someone to help me.

“I was in so much pain labouring but the midwife made me feel like a hypochondriac.”

CQC safety ratings

She said the situation was escalating, she was becoming dehydrated, and her daughter’s heartrate was climbing, yet no one intervened.

A registrar who began his shift at 7am, examined her and rushed her immediately to theatre.

At this point she was 9cm dilated and the registrar was “shouting at me, telling me not to push.”

Kate’s daughter was her third IVF pregnancy, and she became emotional when she talked about what might have happened, had that registrar not examined her so quickly in the morning.

“They gambled with her life,” she said.

“If my waters had broken and that registrar wasn’t there, she would have started to come with her feet first. Both my boys had shot out, so I could be talking now as a mum who lost her child.

“It didn’t need to even get to that point.

“I should have had my C-section five hours earlier.”

A chart showing the ongoing independent investigations into maternity care - starting with Morecambe Bay in 2015 and ending with Nottingham

After she had given birth, she was left “in a pool of my own blood, just covered in blood” and had to pull herself out of bed to clean up.

She said she joined the campaign in the hopes women will be listened to in the future and not have to endure what she did.

‘I can’t get my baby out’

Annika Weldon had three miscarriages before giving birth to her son.

“I remember lying on the ward, screaming in pain and none of the other ladies around me were screaming like I was,” she said.

“It didn’t feel right, obviously when you go into labour you expect you are going to be in pain, but I just knew there was something not right.”

The midwife who checked her when she was in active labour could not tell her if she was 1cm or 10cm dilated, she said.

“We spent 45 minutes trying to get my baby out but this midwife that I was with was just so uncaring, she didn’t really explain what I should be doing.”

Annika Weldon miscarried three times before giving birth to her son
Image:
Annika Weldon miscarried three times before giving birth to her son

She had said early in the pregnancy she told doctors she wanted a C-section and “was told I couldn’t have one”.

“I kind of accepted that unless it was an emergency situation, I wouldn’t be able to have one but then in that moment I was like, I don’t know what else I can do here. I feel completely exhausted; I can’t get my baby out.

“I was just so tired and exhausted.”

Her son was born not breathing and she was haemorrhaging blood.

She was taken to emergency surgery and the last thing she remembers before waking up in the ward is throwing up in her hair.

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Maternity services investigated

She wasn’t told until much later the extent of her blood loss (2.5L) when she was struggling to pick up her own baby: “When I asked for help, I was made to feel like an inconvenience.”

‘OUH is particularly bad’

For Kim Thomas, co-founder of Families Failed by OUH Maternity Services and CEO of the Birth Trauma Association, these stories are nothing new.

But Oxford University Hospitals Trust is “particularly bad”, she says.

“They seem to have this incredibly arrogant attitude. They won’t take criticism.

Kim Thomas, from the Birth Trauma Association
Image:
Kim Thomas, from the Birth Trauma Association

“Women who complain are routinely dismissed. There’s a failure to learn from mistakes.”

She says OUH also has “poor postnatal care”: “Dirty wards, blood on the floor, women left in their own blood, women not helped.”

Yvonne Christley, from OUH, said: “We are never complacent and welcome all feedback, whether positive or negative, as we learn from both.”

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “Too many families have been devastated by serious failings in NHS maternity and neonatal care.

“They deserve swift answers, and urgent action is essential to prevent future tragedies.”

They said the government was “immensely grateful” to families for sharing their experiences.

“[We] will work closely with families on this journey to help ensure no parent or baby is ever let down again.”

The Oxford campaign group is growing daily, with more like Kate, Morgan and Annika joining the ranks of those calling for change.

And each day that passes without answers is a reminder of the trauma they endured.

“It still hurts to look back on. It’s taken a while for me to stop blaming myself, but it doesn’t get easier,” Morgan said.

*Some names have been changed.

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Weight loss and diabetes jabs linked to potentially fatal side effect

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Weight loss and diabetes jabs linked to potentially fatal side effect

Weight loss and diabetes jabs taken by more than a million people in the UK have been linked to a potential serious side effect, with some deaths, according to data from the UK medicines regulator.

New figures from the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) show the group of drugs that includes Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic may be associated with inflammation of the pancreas.

According to the MHRA, there have been 181 reported cases of acute or chronic pancreatitis linked to Mounjaro, with five deaths.

Wegovy and Ozempic have been linked with 113 reports of pancreatitis and one death.

Other, less widely used versions of so-called GLP-1 drugs have also been linked to cases and deaths.

There is no evidence that the drugs directly caused the deaths. And the evidence isn’t strong enough for the MHRA to restrict access.

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Weight loss drugs compared

That’s because pancreatitis also occurs in people who aren’t taking the GLP-1 drugs, with about 560 cases for every one million people in the general population. Gallstones and alcohol are the biggest causes.

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But the MHRA and Genomics England are launching a new study to see whether some people have genes that put them at higher risk of developing pancreatitis if they take GLP-1 drugs.

People reported through the MHRA’s ‘yellow card’ alert system to have pancreatitis while using the jabs will be asked to provide a saliva sample and their genes tested.

Professor Matt Brown, chief scientific officer of Genomics England, said: “GLP-1 medicines like Ozempic and Wegovy have been making headlines, but like all medicines, there can be a risk of serious side effects.

“We believe there is real potential to minimise these, with many adverse reactions having a genetic cause.

“This next step in our partnership with the MHRA will generate data and evidence for safer and more effective treatment through more personalised approaches to prescription.”

Assortment of weight loss and diabetic drugs. Pic: iStock
Image:
Assortment of weight loss and diabetic drugs. Pic: iStock

The main symptoms of pancreatitis are severe pain in the centre of the tummy area, fever and nausea. Acute cases are treated in hospital with fluids and oxygen, and generally make a recovery within a few days.

But there can be complications, and around 5% of acute cases are fatal.

With all medicines, there is a balance of risk and benefit.

For people with type 2 diabetes or obesity, there are clear benefits to using the jabs.

They lower blood sugar levels, lead to rapid weight loss and reduce deaths from cardiovascular disease by a fifth.

Read more:
Weight loss jab warning from watchdog over unborn babies

GPs can prescribe weight loss jabs on the NHS
Ozempic to Wegovy – what are the weight loss injections?

But for people who are a bit overweight and have sourced the jabs privately to lose a few pounds ahead of their summer holiday, the health benefits are far less clear.

This is a wake-up call for them.

These are powerful medications with effects not just on appetite, but on lots of body organs, including the brain.

And pancreatitis is just one of many possible side effects.

Lilly, the UK manufacturer of Mounjaro, has said patient safety is its “top priority”.

The drug’s patient information leaflet “warns that inflamed pancreas (acute pancreatitis) is an uncommon side effect (which may affect up to 1 in 100 people),” the statement continued.

Lily “also advises patients to talk to their doctor or other healthcare professional before using Mounjaro if they have ever had pancreatitis,” it added.

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Hainault sword attacker Marcus Monzo found guilty of murdering boy, 14, and three attempted murders

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Hainault sword attacker Marcus Monzo found guilty of murdering boy, 14, and three attempted murders

A man has been found guilty of murdering a 14-year-old boy with a samurai sword as he walked to school in east London.

Marcus Arduini Monzo, 37, nearly decapitated Daniel Anjorin and attacked five others during a 20-minute rampage in Hainault on 30 April last year.

Prosecutors said he skinned and deboned his pet cat Wizard before trying “to kill as many people as he could” while under the influence of cannabis.

Monzo, a Spanish-Brazilian national from Newham in east London, admitted two charges of possessing an offensive weapon relating to two swords, which he said he bought for display purposes.

He claimed he had no memory of carrying out the attacks denied Daniel’s murder along with four charges of attempted murder, wounding with intent, aggravated burglary and possession of a bladed article.

He was cleared of one count of attempted murder – instead found guilty of wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm – and convicted of all other charges following a trial at the Old Bailey.

Daniel Anjorin was attacked in Hainault, northeast London, and suffered fatal wounds on 30 April last year. Pic: Metropolitan Police.
Image:
Daniel Anjorin, 14, died in April last year. Pic: Metropolitan Police

The court heard Monzo was a “talented martial artist” and the jury was shown footage of him unboxing a samurai sword on 4 April last year.

In the four-minute video clip, he calls the weapon “freaking sexy” as he lunges towards the camera and makes different moves.

Marcus Monzo
Image:
Marcus Monzo with a samurai sword in footage shown during the trial

The court was also shown CCTV footage from the morning of 30 April, with audible screams in one clip as Monzo drove his grey Ford Transit van at speed into pedestrian Donato Iwule.

Mr Iwule told jurors: “I thought I was dying” and “I saw blood coming out of my neck”, after he was struck with a sword before running away.

Witnesses described how Monzo was running around “like a maniac” and “looked a bit mad, like there was nothing there”.

Daniel, who had left home at around 7am wearing headphones and school sports clothes, suffered “a near-decapitation” when Monzo attacked him with the weapon from behind, prosecutor Tom Little KC told the jury.

 Handout footage from a doorbell camera of police officers tasering a sword-wielding man in Hainault, north east London, after a 14-year-old boy died after being stabbed following an attack on members of the public and two police officers. Pic: PA
Image:
Monzo was tasered by police. Pic: PA

PC Yasmin Mechem-Whitfield chased the armed attacker through alleyways before Monzo struck her three times with the 60cm blade using “extreme force”, the court heard.

He then entered a nearby house through the back door and walked upstairs before attacking sleeping couple Sindy Arias and Henry De Los Rios Polania, who he asked: “Do you believe in God?”

Mr Little said their lives were only spared because their four-year-old daughter, who was sleeping nearby, woke up and started to cry.

Monzo, who had been cornered by police, also struck Inspector Moloy Campbell once with the sword before he was finally disarmed and arrested after trying to climb onto a garage to escape.

Doorbell footage shows the moment officers shout: “Don’t move, don’t f****** move”, after he was brought to the ground by three separate taser discharges.

Monzo told police he had “many personalities”, including a “professional assassin”, and compared the events to The Hunger Games film franchise.

He wept while giving evidence as he said he did not intend to harm anybody and told jurors he had no memory of what happened.

He told how he had previously used psychedelic drugs and smoked cannabis “three or four times a week” before the attack, but denied doing so on the day.

Prosecutors said he likely suffered from a psychotic disorder with “schizophrenic-like symptoms”, including “delusional beliefs” that both he and his family were in “mortal danger”.

But Mr Little said his psychotic state was self-induced and did not meet the threshold for diminished responsibility.

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