Rishi Sunak has failed to rule out holding a general election in July, as speculation remains rife over the timing of the national vote.

The prime minister has repeatedly said his “working assumption” is the election would take place in the second half of this year – with the law stating January 2025 is the latest he could call it.

But while many commentators have predicted an autumn vote, Sky News’ Trevor Phillips put to Mr Sunak that it could mean as early as July.

Analysis: Sunak needs to learn voters aren’t always governed by the logic of the computer

“Well, look, when it comes to a general election, I’ve been very clear about that multiple times,” the prime minister said.

“And again, I’m not going to say anything more than I’ve already said, I’ve been very clear about that.”

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In his interview – which will air in full on Sunday at 8.30am – Trevor Phillips pushed Mr Sunak five times over whether he would rule out a July general election, but the Conservative leader refused to confirm or deny if it could take place then.

“You’re going to try and draw whatever conclusion you want from what I say,” he said. “I’m going to always try and say the same thing. You should just listen to what I said, [the] same thing I’ve said all year.

“But the point is… there’s a choice when it comes to the general election. And look, over the past week or so… the country can have a very clear sense of what that difference is going to look like.”

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Outlining his recent commitments to overhauling the welfare system, cutting taxes and increasing defence spending, as well as finally getting his Rwanda bill through parliament in an effort to tackle small boat crossings, Mr Sunak said: “That is the substance of what this government is about and what it’s going to do in the future.

“And when the election comes, there’ll be a clear choice, because the Labour Party has tried to frustrate our Rwanda bill, because they don’t believe in stopping the boats, their economic plan will put people’s taxes up.

“They haven’t said that they will invest more in our defence and they certainly don’t agree with reforming our welfare system to support people into work.”

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Labour has said it wants to match the hike in defence spending when the financial circumstances allow, and has promised to scrap the Rwanda bill if it gets into power.

This week, its pre-election focus has been on railways, promising to renationalise train operators and “sweep away” the current “broken” model if the party wins the next election.

Watch Rishi Sunak’s full interview on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips at 8.30am

I’ve known Rishi Sunak slightly for almost a decade, having first met him after he penned a thoughtful, comprehensive, well-received report on Britain’s minority communities, which I’d say is still the best of its kind.

Sitting down to interview him in a state-of-the-art defence facility this week, I could still see the same energetic, likeable problem solver that I met back then, even if he’s now surrounded by the prime ministerial cavalcade of aides, security and media.

That Peloton and fasting regime are clearly doing their job. He’s keen to show his detailed grasp of the situation, whether that’s welfare reform, defence or migration. It’s easy to see why he shone in Silicon Valley and thrived in the Treasury.

However, in the political world he chose, there’s a downside to being highly intelligent, disciplined, and super-focused on delivery, as they might say in California.

He betrays frustration with what he – not wholly unjustifiably – sees as a media obsession with polls and presentation.

Unfortunately, as Enoch Powell once pointed out, a politician who complains about journalists is like a sailor who doesn’t much fancy being at sea.

He rightly points out that it’s his job to make hard choices – for example, funding the defence budget even if it’s at the expense of schools and hospitals.

But a political leader should also know that what follows is an even harder job: to cajole the electorate into supporting that choice – and the voters aren’t always governed by the logic of the computer.

So far, the Tory leader has yet to persuade the public to see the virtue of the plan he mentions several times in every public appearance.

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His party languishes 20 points adrift of Labour, and despite a flurry of policy announcements in recent days, the Tories seem heading for a drubbing in next week’s mayoral and council elections.

He’s lost six by-elections and looks certain to lose another this week.

Undoubtedly some of the problem is the party he leads; most of the by-elections were caused by what used to be called “conduct unbecoming” – financial or sexual shenanigans – by his own MPs.

He isn’t being helped by being a young PM with five living predecessors from his own party. He’s recruited one – David Cameron – to his administration, but there are still three who are never slow in pointing out how they would have done things better.

But even many loyal supporters are beginning to ask if the problem for the Tories is not the followers, but the leader.

There is no doubt that Sunak is a huge contrast to his immediate predecessors. His private life seems uncomplicated and joyous, and despite never having qualified as an accountant, he’s unlikely ever to cause Truss-level panic in the markets.

Read more:
Sunak does not rule out July general election
What impact will bill have on immigration?
Sunak staking premiership on Rwanda flights plan

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Watch live each week on Sunday at 8:30am on Sky channel 501, Freeview 233, Virgin 602, the Sky News website and app or YouTube.

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But political missteps keep coming. Even in our interview, it may have been right to say that the new flow of illegal migrants into Ireland is some kind of proof that the threat of deportation to Rwanda is beginning to bite.

But to position Ireland’s discomfort at our exporting asylum seekers to the Republic is, at the very least, undiplomatic.

Perhaps, as one senior Tory parliamentarian said to me this week, Rishi Sunak should have remained in his former post, and been remembered as the chancellor who saw us through COVID, then steered us to economic stability.

The danger now is that, unless he stages an unlikely turnaround in the Tories’ fortunes, he will go down in history as the prime minister who took his party into a lengthy spell in the wilderness against a Labour opposition that no one would describe as inspiring.

Watch Rishi Sunak’s full interview on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips at 8.30am