Are attempts to boost vaccine takeup genuine policies or PR stunts? Something strange seems to be going on in government
Something strange seems to be going on in the Conservative government.
Recent weeks have seen ministers announce mandatory vaccination to enter nightclubs, speak supportively of businesses that demand workers are jabbed and moot the idea of barring students from university who’ve not been inoculated.
Novel developments for members of the self-professed “freedom-loving” party.
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The question being asked in Westminster is whether this is genuine policy – or just a PR stunt.
“There’s a lot of attempts to drive vaccine uptake and lots of concepts being mooted subtly or not so subtly with no real intent behind them,” said one Whitehall official.
Conservative MPs agree, with several telling Sky News earlier this week they didn’t think plans to restrict access to nightclubs and other events would ever materialise.
One of the proposals has already been shelved, with the government announcing this weekend there are now no plans to use the COVID pass for access to learning.
Education Secretary Gavin Williamson is understood to have made clear there would have been legal implications and potentially little benefit, given polling shows a vast majority of students say they will have the jab.
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But the fact these ideas are even being suggested is enough to drive some backbenchers potty.
Several MPs have already said they won’t be attending this year’s party conference if they are forced to show their vaccination status.
Others worry about sailing too close to compulsory vaccination and the ethical implications of a heavy-handed approach.
“It was wrong-headed and should have been done by carrots,” says one senior backbencher of the plan for universities.
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Those carrots now appear to be sprouting, with companies like Uber and Deliveroo offering discounts to customers who get vaccinated.
Scientists say these approaches are not without risk, but still avoid many of the problems of the negative incentive “stick” strategy.
“They are less likely to lead to perceptions of compulsion and generate a process of ‘reactance’ where people resist in order to reassert their autonomy,” said Professor Stephen Reicher, an advisor to the government on public behaviour.
But as well as the societal impact, there’s also a business impact.
Those in hospitality say Health Secretary Sajid Javid’s initially bullish tone on reopening led to share price boosts and funds flowing in.
Speculative stories about COVID passports disrupt that, with a single front page story potentially undoing weeks of growing confidence.
The calculation in government may be that the longer-term benefit of high vaccine uptake to the economy and society is worth any short-term bumpiness.
But some, like Professor Reicher, worry that neither the carrot nor the stick will be sufficient on their own.
“What is critical is to show people that the authorities are of the community and acting for the community,” he said.
“That is why processes of engagement are generally much more effective than processes of incentivisation.”
Plans for cuts to benefits which will impact more than three million households will be published today – as the government faces a battle to convince dozens of Labour MPs to back them.
Liz Kendall, the welfare secretary, has set out proposals to cut £5bn from the welfare budget – which she has said is “unsustainable” and “trapping people in welfare dependency”.
Disabled people claiming PIP, the personal independence payment which helps people – some of them working – with the increased costs of daily living, face having their awards reviewed from the end of next year.
An estimated 800,000 current and future PIP recipients will lose an average of £4,500 a year, according to a government assessment.
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Government’s battle over welfare reforms
The government also intends to freeze the health element of Universal Credit, claimed by more than two million people, at £97 a week during this parliament, and cut the rate to £50 for new claimants.
Under pressure from Labour MPs concerned particularly that changes to PIP will drive families into poverty, Ms Kendall will announce new protections in the bill today.
Sky News understands they include a 13-week transition period for those losing PIP; a higher rate of Universal Credit for people with the most serious conditions; and a commitment that disabled people who take a job will not immediately lose their benefits.
Some 40 Labour MPs have signed a letter refusing to support the cuts; and dozens of others have concerns, including ministers.
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Ms Kendall is determined to press ahead, and has said the number of new PIP claimants has doubled since 2019 – at 34,000, up from 15,000.
Ministers say 90% of current claimants will not lose their benefits; and that many people will be better off – with the total welfare bill set to continue to rise over this parliament.
To keep the benefit, claimants must score a minimum of four points out of eight on one of the daily living criteria.
Ministers say claimants with the most serious conditions, who cannot work, will not face constant reassessments.
A £1bn programme is proposed, intended to give disabled people who can work tailored support to find jobs.
Some Labour MPs have angrily opposed the reforms – which will be voted on later this month.
Last night in a parliamentary debate, Labour MP for Poole Neil Duncan-Jordan disputed the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) figures.
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He said: “We already know that PIP is an underclaimed benefit. The increase in claims is a symptom of declining public health and increased financial hardship disabled people are facing.
“We have the same proportion of people on working-age benefits as in 2015. This is not an economic necessity, it’s a political choice.”
Liz Kendall
Rachael Maskell, Labour MP for York, called the proposals “devastating “. She said: “We must change direction and not proceed with these cuts.”
Disability groups say they fear an increase in suicides and mental health conditions.
The government’s own assessment forecast an extra 250,000 people could be pushed into poverty – including 50,000 children. It did not include the impact of people moving into work.
Ms Kendall was urged by MPs on the Commons Work and Pensions committee to delay the reforms, to carry out an impact assessment, but wrote back to the committee saying the reforms were too urgent to delay – and that MPs would be able to amend the legislation.
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