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Boris Johnson has declined Nicola Sturgeon’s invitation to meet for talks while he is in Scotland this week.

The first minister had invited the prime minister to her official Edinburgh residence, Bute House, to discuss their plans for recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.

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But in a reply to Ms Sturgeon’s letter, Mr Johnson said: “I am keen to arrange an in-person meeting with you and the other first ministers and deputy first minister to build on the constructive discussions we had earlier this summer.

“We agreed then that we should establish a structured forum for ongoing engagement between the government and the devolved administrations to deliver tangible outcomes in the interests of people throughout the UK.”

The prime minister added: “I look forward to meeting with you soon and working together in the interests of people in all parts of our country.”

In her letter to Mr Johnson, the first minister said it would be “their first opportunity to meet in person for a while”.

Ms Sturgeon acknowledged the two leaders “differ politically”, but said the Scottish and UK governments “must work together where we can”.

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Angela Rayner will not publish ‘personal tax advice’ over council house sale – unless Tories do the same

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Angela Rayner will not publish 'personal tax advice' over council house sale - unless Tories do the same

Angela Rayner has said she will not publish the “personal tax advice” she received on the sale of her council house despite a police development over her living arrangements.

Labour’s deputy leader told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme she was “confident” she had done “absolutely nothing wrong” with regards to the sale of her council house and whether she should have paid capital gains tax on it.

Ms Rayner said she had been “very clear on my advice that I’ve received” – but asked why she would not put that legal advice into the public domain, she said: “Because that’s my personal tax advice. But I’m happy to comply with the necessary authorities that want to see that.”

Sir Keir Starmer later threw his support behind his deputy at the launch of Labour’s local election campaign in Dudley, telling the audience that she had not broken any rules and was right not to publish the legal advice.

Asked if his deputy should resign if found to have done wrong, Sir Keir said: “Angela has answered I don’t know how many questions about this. She has not broken any rules, she has in fact taken legal and tax advice which has satisfied her, and us, and me about the position.”

Politics live: Tory blames ‘pesky peers’ for blocking Rwanda plan

Although Ms Rayner has resisted putting her tax advice in the public domain, she has committed to hand over the information to the police and HMRC – something Sir Keir agreed with.

When pressed further on why she would not publish the advice – and whether she would accept the same reasoning from a Conservative politician – Ms Rayner suggested she would be willing to do if her Tory critics did the same.

“If we’re all going to have a level playing field and we suddenly decide that Conservative ministers need to hand over their tax affairs, if you show me yours, then I’ll show you mine,” she said.

The Labour leader made comparisons with Ms Rayner’s situation to “beergate”, when he and Ms Rayner were investigated, and later cleared, over allegations of breaching COVID lockdown rules ahead of the Hartlepool by-election in May 2021.

And he said: “Where does this end? Are you going to be calling for Tory ministers to publish their legal and tax advice going back over the last 15 years? That is where this ends.”

The defence of Ms Rayner came after Greater Manchester Police confirmed it was “reassessing” its initial decision not to investigate allegations made about her living arrangements after receiving a complaint.

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Labour shadow minister defends Rayner

The Labour MP has come under the spotlight in recent weeks over the sale of an ex-council house she previously owned in Stockport, having been accused of avoiding capital gains tax – something she has denied.

But she has also faced scrutiny over claims that in 2010, she may have lived primarily at her then husband’s address, despite registering to vote under her own – which could be a breach of electoral rules.

Ms Rayner has said she paid bills and council tax and was registered to vote at the home she brought through Margaret Thatcher’s “right-to-buy” scheme. If it was her primary address, as she has claimed, she would not have had to pay capital gains tax on it when she sold it in 2015 for £127,500 – making a £48,500 profit

However, there have been claims that despite registering at Vicarage Road, she was primarily living at Lowndes Lane, Mr Rayner’s address.

Greater Manchester Police looked into the claims and initially said there was no evidence of an offence being committed.

However, James Daly, the Tory MP for Bury North who filed the original complaint about Ms Rayner, followed up with the force and said they had failed to properly investigate the allegations – prompting them to reassess their initial decision.

Read more:
Angela Rayner pleads for ‘privacy’ after row over house sale

How Tory MPs can oust PM – and who could replace him

In a fresh statement released on Wednesday, a spokesperson for the force said: “We have received a complaint regarding our decision not to investigate an allegation and are in the process of reassessing this decision.

“The complainant will be updated with the outcome of the reassessment in due course.”

The claims first surfaced in a book about Ms Rayner by former Conservative Party deputy chairman and Tory donor Lord Ashcroft, which has been serialised in the Mail On Sunday.

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Electoral Dysfunction: Royals’ cancer diagnoses put struggling NHS in the spotlight

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Electoral Dysfunction: Royals' cancer diagnoses put struggling NHS in the spotlight

There is an edict in our democracy that politics and royalty must not mix.

Sure, we live in a “constitutional monarchy” where King Charles is head of state, wading through government papers and meeting the prime minister weekly.

But when it comes to the task of setting the political direction and framing our nation’s political debate, the Royal Family has to zip it and remain entirely neutral.

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And just as the royals don’t stray into political territory, political editors like myself and politicians don’t talk much about the Royal Family.

In fact, politicians actively swerve any questions inviting them to comment on the latest tabloid drama around the royals.

But this week on Electoral Dysfunction, we’ve broken with our own conventions to discuss the Princess of Wales’s announcement that she has cancer, and ask whether this might be a moment when the cultural and social role the Royal Family play in our national life takes a more political tilt.

More on Cancer

Because the princess’s diagnosis – on the heels of King Charles’s announcement he has cancer – has started a conversation about cancer that the British people are perhaps taking into the political dimension.

The realisation that anyone can find themselves in this position is throwing into sharp relief the state of our healthcare system.

In the same way some people might be asking, “could I have cancer?”, so too are we assessing what the prognosis is for a creaking NHS to treat us in a timely way.

This was the point made to us by listener Sophie, who emailed in to say that while she had “every sympathy” with the Princess of Wales and King Charles, “I wonder if it is now an appropriate time to start a discussion about the reality of cancer treatment for the majority of people in the UK?”

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Because while NHS waiting lists are at record high, the pandemic stalled so many patients presenting for cancer screening and testing.

NHS guidelines aim for 75% of patients with suspected cancer to receive a diagnosis within four weeks of a referral, while 85% should wait less than two months for their first treatment.

But the last time these targets were met was back in 2015.

In England and Wales, just over one in three people wait too long for treatment, while in Scotland – where targets are slightly different – a quarter wait more than two months to start treatment.

The public seem to have had enough, with The King’s Fund and Nuffield Trust think tanks’ annual report – out this week – finding that public confidence in the NHS is at its lowest level since polling began in 1983, with approval ratings dropping for almost all NHS services.

Long waits for a GP or a hospital appointment were cited by 71% of people as a key reason for their dissatisfaction.

Half of those surveyed supported rising taxes and spending more on the NHS, as we gear up for a general election in which the state of our health service will be the subject of very national debate.

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Satisfaction with NHS slumps

Labour MP Jess Phillips says “everybody feels nothing but sympathy” for Princess Catherine. But she also voices on our podcast perhaps what many of our listeners will be feeling if they are watching someone struggle with this awful disease and frustrated that treatment came too late.

“[The royals] are going to be treated a lot better in their cancer diagnosis than my family and my sister-in-law who is currently dying of cancer and has small children just like Catherine,” she said.

“The reality is that not everybody has vigilance on them [in screening and testing for cancer]. I’m not saying for a second that the Royal Family shouldn’t have vigilance and everybody in the country knows they will have more vigilance.”

But Jess also thinks that the royals should perhaps give “some nod of recognition to the fact its not as easy for others”.

She added: “I think that if they don’t address that particular issue, I just think that it’s dangerous and people like me who feel sympathy for them start to feel a bit hurt by it.”

Political territory that the Royal Family will be loath to touch, let alone try to traverse.

But as figureheads of the nation, their diagnoses, as well as opening up a well of sympathy, puts a struggling NHS into the national spotlight again.

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Rishi Sunak: How Tory MPs can get rid of the prime minister – and who could be in the running to replace him

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Rishi Sunak: How Tory MPs can get rid of the prime minister - and who could be in the running to replace him

Rishi Sunak looks to have seen off his backbenchers – at least for now.

The nascent rebellions have gone quiet in the past few weeks and the Commons is currently in its Easter recess, with MPs returning to Westminster on 15 April.

Time away from parliament normally strengthens – or at least prevents the further collapse – of a prime minister, as MPs disperse back to their constituencies and away from the plot-heavy fug of Westminster.

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But a potential flashpoint is looming – May’s local elections.

A particularly bad performance by the Tories could lead to fresh pressure on the PM’s leadership and prove to be the catalyst for a concrete move to oust Mr Sunak.

Sky News explains how Tory MPs could get rid of the PM and – if they are successful – who would likely be in the running to replace him.

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How to depose a prime minister

The process of removing a Tory leader is governed by the 1922 Committee – also known as the ’22 – a group of backbench Tory MPs.

If a Conservative MP wants a new leader, they write to the head of the ’22 saying they have no confidence in the incumbent.

The chair of the committee is Sir Graham Brady.

Under party rules, 15% of Tory MPs need to write to Sir Graham in order to trigger a vote. Currently, there are 348 MPs, meaning the 15% threshold sits at 53.

There is often lots of speculation about how many letters have been submitted, but the only person who truly knows is Sir Graham himself.

1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady makes a statement outside Parliament after Liz Truss announced her resignation as PM. Pic: PA
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Sir Graham Brady has overseen numerous Tory leadership contests since becoming chair of the 1922 committee in 2010. Pic: PA

When the threshold is met, Sir Graham will make an announcement to the media.

There would then be a vote of all Tory MPs on whether to unseat Mr Sunak. If a majority say they have no confidence in him (50% +1) a leadership contest is triggered.

Mr Sunak would be barred from standing in the subsequent contest.

However, if the leader wins a vote of no confidence, they are then immune from a further such challenge for a year.

This happened with Theresa May in 2018, although she opted to resign a few months later amid continuing struggles to get a Brexit deal passed by MPs.

Theresa May makes a statement in Downing Street after she survived an attempt by Tory MPs to oust her with a vote of no confidence. Pic: PA
Image:
Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence, but it proved to be a brief respite. Pic: PA

Her successor Boris Johnson also survived a confidence vote of Tory MPs in June 2022, but emerged from the ordeal weakened as a significant number of Conservatives (148, 41%) voted against him.

He announced his resignation a little more than a month later.

Are there any other circumstances in which the PM could go?

Another way Mr Sunak could be ousted is if the so-called “men in grey suits” tell him to step aside and he heeds their advice.

This is when senior Conservative MPs – like Sir Graham – tell the party leader they do not have the support of the party, and should step aside to save the ignominy of the above votes.

Of course, Mr Sunak could decide himself that the game is up and opt to jump before he is potentially pushed, but this is unlikely.

How would the contest pan out?

The exact rules for the contest would be set out by the ’22 after it is triggered.

Nominations for candidates would likely open quickly, with prospective leaders needing the support of a certain number of colleagues to stand.

Once nominations have closed, there would then be rounds of voting among Tory MPs for their preferred new leader. The worst-performing candidate in each ballot would be eliminated, until just two remain.

This pair would then compete for the votes of Conservative Party members, slugging it out to become party leader and prime minister.

This is what happened in the summer of 2022, when Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss were left as the last two candidates in the race to succeed Mr Johnson.

How a Conservative leadership contest pans out

They then spent the summer campaigning for votes, with Ms Truss emerging victorious.

However, there have been examples in recent years of truncated contests.

The most recent of which was the second leadership contest of 2022, which Mr Sunak won unopposed after Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt pulled out.

In 2016, Tory members also didn’t get a chance to have their say.

Theresa May won both ballots of MPs, but she then became party leader unopposed after rival Andrea Leadsom pulled out in the wake of a controversial newspaper interview she later apologised for.

Will there be an election if there’s a new leader and PM?

In short, no.

Under our parliamentary system, the prime minister is leader of the largest party in the Commons.

If the Tories decide to get rid of Sunak and replace him, there is no legal obligation upon the party or the new leader to seek a fresh mandate from the electorate straight away.

The new PM could decide to call an election soon after taking office anyway, or they could wait it out until January 2025.

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Labour’s Gordon Brown didn’t call an election when he succeeded Sir Tony Blair as PM in 2007, although he did flirt with the idea of a snap poll.

The aforementioned Theresa May did go to the country early, but this was almost a year after she took office. Boris Johnson did call an election within a few months of entering Number 10, winning a big Tory majority in December 2019.

Neither Ms Truss or Mr Sunak opted to call an election on becoming PM, although it should be noted the former didn’t get much of a chance as she was in office for less than six weeks.

Who is likely to be in the running to succeed Sunak if he goes?

Given there is not long before there absolutely has to be an election – January 2025 at the very latest – and the polls suggest the Tories are on course for defeat, you might expect the field of likely contenders to succeed Mr Sunak to be quite narrow.

But a number of names have been suggested as potential replacements if he goes.

Grant Shapps

The defence secretary has emerged as someone who could look to run for the top job, having called for defence spending to rise to 3% of GDP – something that could win the support of Tory backbenchers.

Grant Shapps, who has also served as transport secretary, previously ran to be Tory leader in 2022.

James Cleverly

The home secretary, who has also served as foreign secretary, is being talked about in moderate Tory circles as someone who could unify the party.

A key part of James Cleverly’s brief as home secretary is the plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda – something he is said to have reservations about in private, despite his denials.

He caused controversy last year – and was forced to apologise – after making a joke about date rape which he admitted may have undermined the government’s work to tackle drink spiking.

Kemi Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, is seen as the darling of the right and has impressed some in the party with her no-nonsense approach.

One of her strongest advocates is Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary who has also run for leader in the past.

Ms Badenoch ran in the last Tory leadership of 2022 following Mr Johnson’s resignation, in which she was eliminated in the fourth ballot.

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt has been at the heart of the rumours of a plot to replace Mr Sunak, although the Commons leader has insisted she is “getting on” with her job.

She has been mooted as a “compromise” candidate for those on the rightF because of her Brexit credentials and her performances in the Commons.

She is viewed as one of the more centrist figures in the party, but current polling suggests she could lose her seat at the next election.

Priti Patel

Former home secretary Priti Patel, who now sits on the backbenches, was a key torchbearer for the right before she was eclipsed by Suella Braverman following the demise of Mr Johnson.

She is seen as flying below the radar but making important interventions on tax, for example.

Ms Patel is seen as one the more traditional right-wing MPs in the party, compared with her successor Ms Braverman, who holds appeal with some of the Tory MPs elected in 2019. Her seat of Witham in Essex is also one of the safest in the country.

Robert Jenrick

Robert Jenrick has held a number of ministerial roles, including as communities secretary, a position he lost in one of Boris Johnson’s reshuffles.

He was originally seen as a Sunak loyalist and was appointed immigration minister, partly to keep Ms Braverman in check.

However, he later hit the headlines when he resigned over Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill, saying he could not continue in government when he had such “strong disagreements with the direction of the government’s policy on immigration”.

Suella Braverman

Suella Braverman has cultivated a reputation on the right as someone who is not afraid to voice controversial opinions on immigration and law and order.

She was brought in by Mr Sunak to cater to the right of the party, where she commanded support.

However, her sacking as home secretary over comments that homelessness was a “lifestyle choice” – may have affected her standing among Tory MPs.

Tom Tugendhat

Tom Tugendhat is regarded highly in the One Nation group of moderate Tory MPs.

He has previously run for Tory leader, but was knocked out of the race early and later threw his support behind Liz Truss.

His recent intervention on defence spending suggests he could decide to run for the top job again.

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