College football preseason power rankings: Alabama — who else? — starts at No. 1
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ESPN staff
The college football season will look plenty different in 2021. The college football power rankings? Not quite as much. Despite new quarterbacks at Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State, those three perennial powers find themselves in the top five. They are joined by Oklahoma and Georgia, which both return quarterbacks in the hopes of winning their first championships of the playoff era.
And then there are teams like Texas A&M, North Carolina and Iowa State, which make the top 10 and are looking to earn a CFP bid for the first time. From the Group of 5, Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina and Louisiana all check in.
Where does your favorite team rank?
Methodology: Thirty-three ESPN college football experts submitted their own top 25s, leading to this consensus list.
2020 record: 13-0, national champions
2021 preseason FPI: 1
Key September games: Sept. 4 vs. Miami; Sept. 18 at Florida
Season outlook: Another year, another championship, another rebuild. Replacing DeVonta Smith, Najee Harris and Mac Jones on offense won’t be easy. Nor will it be easy to recreate the magic of Steve Sarkisian calling plays. But Nick Saban went out and got a former college and pro coach in Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator. John Metchie is back at receiver, along with veteran running back Brian Robinson. All eyes will be on projected starting quarterback Bryce Young, though. The dynamic former five-star recruit was Jones’ understudy last season and has all the tools to be an all-conference player. How he deals with the learning curve of major college football will go a long way toward determining whether Alabama reloads and competes for another championship. — Alex Scarborough
2020 record: 9-2, Big 12 champions
2021 preseason FPI: 3
Key September game: Sept. 18 vs. Nebraska
Season outlook: The Sooners amped up the excitement level this offseason with designs on joining the SEC in the future, but they have a real opportunity to push for a national-title run this season. The schedule sets up nicely: TCU and Iowa State, which can push the Sooners, visit Norman this year, as does Nebraska for a Game of the Century anniversary celebration. The Texas game, as always, is a key test, but FPI gives the Sooners a 68% chance to win the conference. — Dave Wilson
2020 record: 10-2, ACC champions
2021 preseason FPI: 2
Key September game: Sept. 4 vs. Georgia
Season outlook: Trevor Lawrence is gone. Travis Etienne is gone. For most programs, that would mean a massive reset of expectations. At Clemson, however, there’s surprisingly little concern. QB D.J. Uiagalelei got his feet wet replacing Lawrence for two games last year, and he looked like a future star. Five-star recruit Will Shipley has already turned heads in summer workouts, and Clemson’s backfield appears well-stocked with talent. Then add in a healthy Justyn Ross, an absolutely loaded defensive front and a veteran secondary with a chip on its shoulder and, once again, the Tigers are the odds-on favorites to win the ACC. The bigger question for Clemson fans, however, might be how much bigger they should dream. After two straight seasons ended with blowout losses in the playoff, the narrative surrounding Clemson will be less about its command of the conference and more about how quickly the Tigers can once again hoist a national championship trophy. — David M. Hale
2020 record: 7-2
2021 preseason FPI: 5
Key September game: Sept. 4 vs. Clemson
Season outlook: The Bulldogs are one of the favorites to make the College Football Playoff and win a national championship. Georgia’s offense looked like it was finally reaching its potential toward the end of 2020 with JT Daniels at quarterback, and will be returning eight starters in 2021. Defensively, the Dawgs will have to reload some, but the addition of Tykee Smith and Georgia’s general ability to reload year in and year out could have them back in the playoff for the first time since 2017. And from a scheduling standpoint, the Bulldogs avoid Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU. — Harry Lyles Jr.
2020 record: 7-1
2021 preseason FPI: 4
Key September game: Sept. 11 vs. Oregon
Season outlook: The Buckeyes are breaking in a new quarterback after starter Justin Fields left for the NFL. All signs point to C.J. Stroud getting the starting nod while battling with Jack Miller and Kyle McCord. The good news for the offense is that the unit is returning receivers Chris Olave, one of the top producing receivers in the country, and Garrett Wilson, along with tight end Jeremy Ruckert, who all led the team in receiving touchdowns in 2020. The coaches are adding in some talented freshmen on offense as well, with running back TreVeyon Henderson and receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. On defense, the Buckeyes need to see improvement from their secondary, a unit that ranked 122 of all FBS programs in pass yards allowed per game. This is still a team that will be in the College Football Playoff discussion, but the Buckeyes will need some new names to step up if they want to win it all.— Tom VanHaaren
2020 record: 8-1
2021 preseason FPI: 6
Key September game: Sept. 11 vs. Colorado
Season outlook: The Aggies are coming off a season in which they appeared built for sustained success, particularly on defense. They’ll have to rebuild up front with four new starters on the offensive line and break in a new QB, but Jimbo Fisher feels good about those positions. ESPN’s FPI gives A&M a greater than 80% chance to win in each of its first five games before Alabama — which handed the Aggies their only loss last season — visits College Station on Nov. 9. — Wilson
2020 record: 9-3
2021 preseason FPI: 9
Key September game: Sept. 11 vs. Iowa
Season outlook: One of the most impressive feats from the 2020 college football season was Iowa State’s ability to have its best year in school history during a pandemic. Matt Campbell will have much of the same group looking to run it back in 2021. While this will be the most anticipated season in Iowa State’s history, its biggest challenge to a Big 12 title and a playoff berth will likely be the same that stopped the team in 2020: Spencer Rattler and the Sooners. But the Cyclones split games with the Sooners, and with Brock Purdy and Breece Hall leading the charge, the people of Ames can’t help but feel optimistic, as the Cyclones are legitimate playoff contenders. — Lyles
2020 record: 4-3, Pac-12 champion
2021 preseason FPI: 12
Key September game: Sept. 11 vs. Ohio State
Season outlook: After an impressive freshman season and an abbreviated sophomore one, defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux heads into his junior year with the potential to be the best player in college football. Yes, he’s that good. But the Ducks are so much more than that. Oregon has been a recruiting power the past few years under Mario Cristobal and has built a deep, talented roster on par with some of the best in college football. There will be a new starting quarterback after Tyler Shough transferred to Texas Tech, but it appeared likely that Anthony Brown was going to win the job, regardless, after earning playing time at the end of last season. He figures to improve as the team heads into its second year under coordinator Joe Moorhead. — Kyle Bonagura
2020 record: 10-2
2021 preseason FPI: 8
Key September games: Sept. 5 at Florida State, Sept. 25 vs. Wisconsin
Season outlook: The Irish beat Clemson in the regular season and made it to the College Football Playoff last season, but there is a lot of production to replace from last year’s team. Quarterback Ian Book is gone, the offensive line will have new faces across the board and head coach Brian Kelly has a new defensive coordinator in Marcus Freeman. The staff brought in Wisconsin quarterback transfer Jack Coan, who has a shot at starting for Notre Dame this season while battling with Drew Pyne and Tyler Buchner. Having tight end Michael Mayer as a big target will help whoever wins that battle, but there are some big holes to fill. On defense, linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is gone, but the unit does bring back star safety Kyle Hamilton. How the new faces step into key roles and help early on will be the story of what this Notre Dame team looks like this season. — VanHaaren
2020 record: 8-4
2021 preseason FPI: 14
Key September game: Sept. 3 at Virginia Tech
Season outlook: The state of play in the ACC has been all but etched in stone for the past five years: It’s Clemson and everyone else. But perhaps 2021 is the year a genuine contender to the throne emerges from that “everyone else” category, and no one seems better positioned to do it than North Carolina. On offense, UNC returns arguably the country’s best QB in Sam Howell, along with all five starters on the O-line. On defense, a unit that desperately needed a talent infusion two years ago now has legitimate blue-chip stars ready to contribute, including five-star corner Tony Grimes and five-star end Keeshawn Silver. Even the talent that left appears to have some ready-made replacements, as Tennessee transfer Ty Chandler looks to pick up where 1,000-yard backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams left off, and slot receiver Josh Downs appears poised to become the next Tar Heels superstar. Of course, UNC also suffered embarrassing losses to FSU and Virginia last year, so rather than focus on reaching Clemson’s elite status, the next big step for the Heels might just be finding some consistency. — Hale
2020 record: 9-1, AAC champions
2021 preseason FPI: 22
Key September game: Sept. 18 at Indiana
Season outlook: The biggest storyline from Cincinnati’s offseason was the departure of defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman. Freeman’s defense helped the Bearcats win an American Athletic Conference title. With Freeman now at Notre Dame, coach Luke Fickell will hope that longtime Michigan State assistant Mike Tressel can keep the Bearcats’ defense playing at the same intensity that helped the team earn an appearance against Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. Offensively, Desmond Ridder is back at quarterback with a new offensive line, but if the defense performs at a similar level that it did in 2020, the Bearcats should be in for another big season. — Lyles
2020 record: 8-2
2021 preseason FPI: 11
Key September game: Sept. 18 vs. Alabama
Season outlook: Two major questions face the Gators as they head into a new season: How will Emory Jones do as the presumptive starter at quarterback, and how much better will the defense be after a heavily criticized performance a year ago? Let’s start with Jones, who has waited three years for the opportunity to start. Jones is a different player from Kyle Trask — during SEC media days, Mullen noted that Jones had a strong arm and was a “dynamic playmaker” with his feet — so the offense will look different. But what about the defense? With veterans like Zachary Carter, Brenton Cox Jr. and Kaiir Elam returning, the Gators have the pieces in place to put together a far more consistent performance. — Andrea Adelson
2020 record: 5-1
2021 preseason FPI: 21
Key September game: Sept. 11 vs. Stanford
Season outlook: The Trojans often didn’t look the part last year, but they still went undefeated through the pandemic-shortened regular season before losing the Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. This year, with a more traditional offseason, expectations are as high as they’ve been since Clay Helton took over. That doesn’t say much, of course, but the feeling around Los Angeles is that if this isn’t the season Helton can break through and become nationally relevant, it’s just not going to happen. QB Kedon Slovis has star potential, but the player to know going into the season is receiver Drake London, a potential All-American. — Bonagura
2020 record: 5-5
2021 preseason FPI: 18
Key September game: Sept. 4 at UCLA
Season outlook: Last year was a complete letdown. The wheels came off early, and it took a rally late and a bizarre penalty for a thrown shoe just to finish at .500. Ed Orgeron then went to work, almost entirely remaking his staff, bringing in Daronte Jones to lead the defense and Jake Peetz to run the offense. The latter was a clear move at trying to recapture the magic of Joe Brady’s dynamic 2019 offense. The good news is that Peetz has two good options at quarterback: Myles Brennan, who threw for 11 touchdowns in three games before an injury ended his season, or Max Johnson, the freshman who led LSU to a back-to-back wins to salvage an otherwise lost season. — Scarborough
2020 record: 8-3
2021 preseason FPI: 10
Key September game: Sept. 4 vs. Alabama
Season outlook: Quarterback D’Eriq King has navigated his rehab from another knee injury better than anyone had imagined when he got hurt in the bowl game, and his return has boosted expectations for a program still finding its footing under Manny Diaz. But the Hurricanes also start the season against Alabama, a tough first test that might end up defining the season. Beyond King’s return, there is optimism the defense will fare better with nine starters back, and Diaz is calling the plays again after making defensive-staff changes this past offseason. — Adelson
2020 record: 4-3
2021 preseason FPI: 17
Key September games: Sept. 4 vs. Penn State; Sept. 25 vs. Notre Dame
Season outlook: The Badgers had an odd 2020 season with a lot of disruption from COVID-19. The team played its first game of the season against Illinois on Oct. 31, then saw its next two games canceled and didn’t play again until Nov. 14 at Michigan. That wasn’t conducive to breaking in quarterback Graham Mertz, who started the season completing 20 of 21 passes for 248 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Illini, but finished the season with 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in the final six games. Getting some semblance of normalcy and consistency will be key for Mertz and the offense. Having him step into a leadership role will be important, and the Badgers need to come out of the gate in a similar fashion to 2020 with Penn State first on the schedule in 2021. — VanHaaren
2020 record: 6-2
2021 preseason FPI: 27
Key September games: Sept. 4 at Iowa; Sept. 18 vs. Cincinnati
Season outlook: Indiana is typically a basketball school in the country’s most proud basketball state, but last year, nobody could ignore the football Hoosiers. Tom Allen’s team was one of the best stories in what was a difficult 2020 season in college football. The Hoosiers went 6-1 in the regular season, their lone loss a 42-35 contest in Columbus against Ohio State. And had it not been for a rule change, the Hoosiers would have been in the Big Ten title game. In 2021, the Hoosiers will be looking to further prove that the 2020 campaign wasn’t a fluke with 18 of 22 starters coming back. This is the season Indiana tries to exceed any expectation that just about anybody could have for its football program. — Lyles
2020 record: 6-2
2021 preseason FPI: 23
Key September games: Sept. 4 vs. Indiana, Sept. 11 at Iowa State
Season outlook: On offense, Iowa is returning two key pieces in running back Tyler Goodson and quarterback Spencer Petras to provide some consistency this season. The Hawkeyes started the season with two losses but then rattled off six wins to finish. Petras didn’t start out the season the way he wanted with four touchdowns and five interceptions in the first five games. He finished the last two games with five touchdowns and no interceptions, so the team will need him to build off those last two games. Luckily, he will be able to rely on Goodson, who had 762 rush yards in eight games and seven touchdowns on the ground. Goodson should be one of the best backs in the conference and will be running behind center Tyler Linderbaum, one of the best offensive linemen in the Big Ten. Someone else will have to step up in that running back room, though, to help carry the load, as Iowa starts this season with Indiana and at Iowa State as the first two games on the slate. — VanHaaren
2020 record: 3-1
2021 preseason FPI: 25
Key September game: Sept. 11 at Michigan
Season outlook: Few teams saw their seasons interrupted by the pandemic to the degree that Washington did last year. The Huskies never left Seattle, won the Pac-12 North and then weren’t able to take part in the conference title game. Left tackle Jaxson Kirkland and tight end Cade Otton were left wanting more, and both put the NFL on hold for a chance to finish their college careers with something more memorable. Keep an eye on cornerback Trent McDuffie, who has looked like a future NFL player since he seamlessly stepped into a prominent role as a true freshman. — Bonagura
2020 record: 4-5
2021 preseason FPI: 13
Key September games: Sept. 4 at Wisconsin, Sept. 18 vs. Auburn
Season outlook: It was a wild ride at running back for Penn State, with injuries and some bad luck that whittled down the depth. This season, Noah Cain and Devyn Ford are healthy, and the staff added John Lovett from Baylor to go along with Keyvone Lee and Caziah Holmes. If everyone can stay healthy, that group should be a strength for the offense and new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. The running backs and wide receiver Jahan Dotson will need to chip in as much as possible for quarterback Sean Clifford, who has had an up-and-down college career. On defense, the Nittany Lions are replacing linebacker Micah Parsons, Odafe Oweh and Shaka Toney, who are all off to the NFL. Who steps up in their places as a leader and in terms of production will be two of the bigger questions heading into fall camp. — VanHaaren
2020 record: 7-3
2021 preseason FPI: 7
Key September game: Sept. 4 vs. Louisiana
Season outlook: No pressure, Steve Sarkisian. The Horns plucked Sark from Alabama to bring a little SEC ball to Austin, then announced they’re headed back that way in however many years. In the meantime, the Longhorns have to contend with a loaded Sooners team, hostile Big 12 fans at every stop, tough road trips to TCU (7-2 against Texas since joining the conference) and Iowa State, and at another bitter old rival in Arkansas. Oh, and that Louisiana team in Week 1 has the most returning production of any team in the country — and beat Iowa State in Ames in last year’s season opener. — Wilson
2020 record: 11-1
2021 preseason FPI: 60
Key September game: Sept. 18 at Buffalo
Season outlook: There might not have been a more entertaining team in college football last season than the Chanticleers. From the teal field to the fast-paced style of offense, they had it all, including the best game of the year when they beat BYU. And outside of defensive end Emmanuel Johnson and running back CJ Marable, every starter is back. That includes quarterback Grayson McCall, who in his first year starting as a sophomore scored a combined 33 touchdowns while throwing just three interceptions. With a manageable schedule — the only Power 5 opponent is Kansas in Week 2 — don’t be surprised if Coastal is once again the talk of college football. — Scarborough

2020 record: 10-1
2021 preseason FPI: 59
Key September game: Sept. 4 at Texas
Season outlook: As the world continues to ask what’s keeping Billy Napier in Lafayette, he keeps building one of the top Group of 5 programs in college football, winners of 10 games in back-to-back seasons. If not for a loss to Coastal Carolina, the Ragin’ Cajuns would have ended last season undefeated. And incredibly, some 20 starters are back, including fifth-year quarterback Levi Lewis, who threw for 2,274 yards last year. But pay attention to this team, especially early, as it incorporates a bunch of new faces on the coaching staff, including three new assistants on defense. — Scarborough
2020 record: 5-5
2021 preseason FPI: 20
Key September game: Sept. 6 vs. Louisville
Lane Kiffin’s second year in Oxford should be a step above what the Rebels did in 2020. Despite a 5-5 record, they capped off the season with a win over No. 7 Indiana in the Outback Bowl. In 2021, they’ll return eight starters on offense, including QB Matt Corral, and added Western Kentucky transfer WR Jahcour Pearson, who Kiffin will hope can make up for the loss of Elijah Moore. It’ll be a tough season per usual in the SEC West, but the Rebels have the tools to compete in every game. — Lyles
2020 record: 5-5
2021 preseason FPI: 29
Key September game: Sept. 18 vs. BYU
Season outlook: The Sun Devils return 21 starters from a team that was supposed to be good last year but really just never got out of first gear thanks, at least in part, to a COVID-19 outbreak. At Pac-12 media day, coach Herm Edwards and quarterback Jayden Daniels maintained that the ongoing NCAA investigation into conduct by the coaching staff relating to violations of COVID-19 protocols and recruiting rules won’t affect the team on the field. Heading into his junior year, Daniels has a chance to be special and one of the faces of the conference. — Bonagura
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Ranking the most interesting College Football Playoff and conference races
Published
3 hours agoon
October 23, 2025By
admin
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Bill ConnellyOct 23, 2025, 06:50 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
The signs are everywhere. It’s finally hoodie weather in the Midwest. We’re getting ready to argue all over again about daylight saving time and whether candy corn is good. (It is! I don’t like that it is, but it is.) That’s right: It’s almost November. And November is college football’s greatest month.
We enter this November with far more uncertainty in the air than usual. Sure, it almost certainly looks like Ohio State and Indiana will vacuum up two of the 12 College Football Playoff slots, with Oregon likely nabbing a third. The top-heavy Big Ten should continue to fend off any of the “Has parity taken over college football?” talk en vogue at the moment. But everywhere else, it’s nothing but uncertainty as far as the eye can see.
We know the SEC should land quite a few CFP bids, but we have no idea who will grab them. (Okay, we have some idea, but not a lot!) We thought the ACC (Miami) and Big 12 (Texas Tech) both had teams capable of charging to 12-0 and easy CFP bids, but Miami and Texas Tech lost last week. So did Memphis, which plunged the American Conference race into chaos. And have you looked at the Heisman betting lately? It feels like we still have some major plot twists to come with that.
Per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are 30 teams with at least a 10% chance at a playoff bid. Most of what’s ahead appears unsettled, so let’s try to make some sense of it. Here are the 10 FBS races I’m most looking forward to as hoodie weather — the best weather — further takes over our world.
1. SEC title race
Per SP+, we head into Week 9 with eight teams clinging to at least a 5% chance of winning the league title: Alabama (25.8%), Texas A&M (17.6%), Georgia (13.9%), Oklahoma (10.4%), Texas (7.7%), Missouri (7.4%), Ole Miss (7.1%) and Vanderbilt (5.5%). They all have either zero (Bama and A&M) or one conference loss, and there are eight remaining games between them over the next six weeks, including two potential elimination games in Week 9 (Ole Miss at Oklahoma and Missouri at Vanderbilt).
I can tell you how many different teams have a chance, but it’s hard not to think of Alabama as the front-runner. The Crimson Tide moved to 4-0 in SEC play last week with a 37-20 win over Tennessee, and they’ve now played four of the five best opponents on their conference schedule. They’re only up to ninth in SP+, however, thanks primarily to statistically subpar performances in wins over Georgia and Missouri (and, of course, the season-opening dud against Florida State, an increasingly inexplicable result). That means their remaining games against LSU, Oklahoma and Auburn are projected as one-score affairs. Their spot in Atlanta isn’t a gimme just yet. Still, wins are wins, and they’re in great shape.
Even if we give one title game spot to Bama, the race for the other spot is pretty fascinating. Will Georgia continue to spot opponents multiscore leads before scraping their way back? How much will the Bulldogs’ loss to Bama hurt them in potential tiebreaker scenarios? Can unbeaten Texas A&M continue charging ahead as the schedule ramps up with trips to LSU, Missouri and Texas? (You could tell me right now that the Aggies went 0-3 or 3-0 in those trips and I would believe you, no questions asked.) Can Ole Miss clear this week’s hurdle in Norman and take advantage of a reasonably light home stretch? Is Oklahoma really a contender with five remaining top-20 opponents (per SP+)? I’m slightly worried about overbilling this race when the most likely result seems to be yet another Bama-Georgia title game. But there’s still lots of potential weirdness on the table. That also means the jockeying for the other SEC playoff spots will be interesting.
Key upcoming games: Ole Miss at Oklahoma (Week 9), Missouri at Vanderbilt (Week 9), Vanderbilt at Texas (Week 10), Texas A&M at Missouri (Week 11), Texas at Georgia (Week 12), Oklahoma at Alabama (Week 12), Missouri at Oklahoma (Week 13), Texas A&M at Texas (Week 14)
2. American Conference title race
Out-of-nowhere upsets have sent conference title races in unexpected directions since conferences first came into existence, and few were as unexpected as Memphis‘ 24-21 defeat at UAB last week. The Blazers had just fired coach Trent Dilfer, and Memphis was a more than three-touchdown favorite. The Tigers entered the game with a 43% chance of making the CFP, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Those odds are now 11%.
Memphis’ loss is our gain. SP+ now gives five teams between a 12% and 24% chance of winning the American Conference: USF (24.4%), North Texas (22.6%), Memphis (19.4%), Navy (17.3%) and Tulane (12.7%). USF, Navy and Tulane are unbeaten in conference play, and Navy is unbeaten overall thanks to a couple of narrow wins in its past two games. But Navy and Tulane have had to pull off escapes in recent weeks and have fallen out of the SP+ top 50. USF has made a nice ascent since a humiliating 49-12 loss to Miami, but the Bulls must play at Memphis and Navy in the coming weeks. If they beat Memphis on Saturday, their spot in the American Conference title game begins to appear secure. But a Memphis win would improve Memphis’ own odds and those of North Texas.
Key upcoming games: USF at Memphis (Week 9), Navy at North Texas (Week 10), Tulane at Memphis (Week 11), USF at Navy (Week 12), Navy at Memphis (Week 14)
3. The current hierarchy of one-loss teams
1:14
Unstoppable force vs. immovable object: Rebels offense vs. OU defense
SEC Network’s Alyssa Lang presents pressing statistics and potential CFP chances ahead of No. 8 Ole Miss’ battle against the No. 13 Sooners.
From a College Football Playoff perspective, this is the most important race. But it’s also the blurriest. If we assume that the Group of 5 ends up with just one of the 12 spots in the CFP — not a guarantee (since we could still theoretically end up with a particularly low-ranked Big 12 or ACC champion), but likely — then that leaves 11 spots for the four power conferences. Among power-conference teams, SP+ projections suggest an average of 5.1 will end up 11-1 or 12-0 heading into championship weekend, likely from this pile:
Odds of finishing 11-1 or better (power-conference teams only): Ohio State 90.1%, Indiana 87.8%, Georgia Tech 49.6%, Texas Tech 46.2%, Oregon 33.1%, Miami 27.5%, BYU 27.3%, Louisville 22.3%, Georgia 16.5%, Ole Miss 16.1%, Alabama 14.9%, Virginia 12.4%.
If we assume for a moment that five or so of those teams will make the field of 12 as they did last year — again, not guaranteed but reasonably likely — that leaves about six spots for multiloss teams, likely from the Big Ten and SEC.
It’s impossible to know where each potential multiloss team might stand six weeks from now, when we don’t know who they might have beaten or lost to — or how the CFP committee will, after pressure, handle differences in strength of schedule — but let’s lay out where their résumés currently stand by combining Strength of Record and Résumé SP+ into one résumé ranking.
Current computer-based résumé rankings:
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Indiana (7-0)
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Ohio State (7-0)
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Texas A&M (7-0)
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Oregon (6-1)
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Alabama (6-1)
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BYU (7-0)
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Georgia (6-1)
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Georgia Tech (7-0)
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Oklahoma (6-1)*
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Miami (5-1)
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Texas Tech (6-1)*
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Vanderbilt (6-1)
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Ole Miss (6-1)
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Notre Dame (5-2)
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Missouri (6-1)
(* Since Texas Tech’s lone loss came without injured starting quarterback Behren Morton, it could get some benefit of the doubt from the committee. And how might the committee handle Oklahoma’s loss to Texas considering John Mateer had rushed back from injury?)
Among current one-loss teams, it seems Oregon, Alabama and Georgia are in good shape to handle another defeat with playoff standing intact. But the number of other spots available could depend on the teams in Provo and Atlanta. BYU and Georgia Tech remain unbeaten, and if either team gets to championship weekend at 12-0, it will be in no matter what happens in the respective conference title games. That’s not particularly likely — BYU must travel to Iowa State (Week 9), Texas Tech (Week 11) and Cincinnati (Week 13), while Georgia Tech finishes against a torrid Pitt (Week 13) and Georgia (Week 14) — but it remains on the table.
Meanwhile, the hierarchy of teams ranked ninth to 15th above tells us quite a bit. Two-loss Notre Dame obviously needs a little bit of help, but considering there are head-to-heads between No. 9 and 13 and No. 10 and 15 this week, the Fighting Irish will likely move up a couple of spots despite being on a bye week. Their strength-of-schedule numbers will only get worse from here, however, so they need to keep looking the part as they have in recent weeks.
Key upcoming games: Ole Miss at Oklahoma (Week 9), Missouri at Vanderbilt (Week 9), BYU at Texas Tech (Week 9), Texas A&M at Missouri (Week 11), Oklahoma at Alabama (Week 12), Missouri at Oklahoma (Week 13), Georgia at Georgia Tech (Week 14)
4. ACC title race
Georgia Tech barely survived at Wake Forest and needed some red zone implosions from Duke — including a 95-yard Omar Daniels fumble return — to survive in Durham on Saturday. But again, wins are wins, and the Yellow Jackets have seven from seven games.
The Jackets are 4-0 in ACC play, so they have their noses out in front in the conference title race. Still, there are seven teams with at least a 7% chance at the league crown right now: Georgia Tech (26.9%), Louisville (16.8%), Miami (13.4%), Virginia (12.9%), SMU (12.9%), Pitt (8.3%) and Duke (7.3%). Considering the closeness of the games that we’ve already seen between these teams, that makes quite a bit of sense.
In terms of the quantity of teams involved, this race could have ranked higher on the list. But somehow we have only five more remaining games between these seven teams. This race could be decided as much by who avoids unexpected upsets as anything. With only one team really standing out from a quality perspective — Miami is 13th in SP+, and the other six contenders are between 24th and 44th — upsets are somewhere between conceivable and quite likely.
Key upcoming games: Miami at SMU (Week 10), Virginia at Duke (Week 12), Pitt at Georgia Tech (Week 13), Louisville at SMU (Week 13), Miami at Pitt (Week 14)
5. The charge to 6-6
We’re constantly told that there are too many bowls and that they don’t mean what they used to. And yet, one of the most enjoyable storylines in a given season comes when a down-on-its-luck program makes a run at bowl eligibility. Here are some of the more interesting names that have a shot at the postseason in 2025:
Northwestern Wildcats (5-2 record, 80.7% chance at bowl eligibility per SP+): The Wildcats have bowled only once in the past four seasons, and they stumbled out of the gate with a dire 23-3 loss to Tulane in Week 1. But they’ve won four in a row to get to the precipice, and while they’re projected underdogs in each remaining game, they’ll probably snag at least one minor upset.
Temple Owls (5-2, 77.4%): One of my favorite stories of the season. Temple went just 13-42 from 2020 to 2024 but made a knockout hire by bringing veteran K.C. Keeler to town. Last Saturday’s blowout of Charlotte brought the Owls to five wins, and they’re favorites at Tulsa this weekend. (If they don’t beat Tulsa, however, things might get a little bit dicey, as they’re at least slight underdogs in each remaining game.)
New Mexico Lobos (4-3, 76.0%): Jason Eck’s Lobos were pains in Michigan’s neck in Week 1 and pummeled UCLA in Week 3. Losses at San José State and Boise State hurt, but as long as they handle their business at home against Utah State and Colorado State, they’re set.
Wyoming Cowboys (3-4, 37.6%): After stumbling to 3-9 in Jay Sawvel’s first season as Craig Bohl’s successor, the Cowboys have played some entertaining games of late, and their 35-28 win over San José State in Week 7 kept bowl hopes alive. Their odds would hop to around 50-50 with a win over Colorado State on Saturday.
Ball State Cardinals (3-4, 20.7%): The Cardinals slipped from 5-7 to 4-8 to 3-9 over Mike Neu’s final three seasons, and they’ve suffered three massive blowouts this year under Mike Uremovich. But their 3-0 home record has bought them time, and a win at 1-6 Northern Illinois on Saturday would keep hope alive.
New Mexico State Aggies (3-3, 43.3%): NMSU isn’t particularly strong (122nd in SP+) and just fell to Missouri State at home, but Conference USA offers plenty of games against similarly iffy programs. They have only one sure loss (at Tennessee) remaining on the schedule. They’re in the hunt.
Delaware Blue Hens (3-3, 78.0%) and Missouri State Bears (3-3, 44.5%): The FBS newcomers will need help, as they aren’t automatically eligible and would only get bowl bids if there aren’t enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all the slots. Right now it looks like there probably will be. Still, the Blue Hens and Bears have fit in well in CUSA. Delaware has a 14% chance of finishing 8-4 or better, which is always a hell of an accomplishment for a newbie.
6. Conference USA title race
Yes, there’s a lot of dead weight in this conference, but a tight race is a tight race, and heading into Week 9, four teams had between a 20% and 23% title chance — Jacksonville State (22.7%), Louisiana Tech (21.7%), Western Kentucky (21.0%) and Kennesaw State (20.7%) — with a fifth contender (Liberty) at 8.6%.
On Tuesday, Western Kentucky knocked off Louisiana Tech in a genuine game-of-the-week candidate, while Kennesaw State pulled away from Florida International. That will shift the odds in those teams’ favor, but with so much evenness in this conference, advantages will likely shift again in the coming weeks. Kennesaw State’s presence in the race makes things even more fun; the Owls face-planted with a 2-10 FBS debut last season, but under Jerry Mack they nearly beat Wake Forest in Week 1 and have won five straight.
Key upcoming games: Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (Week 12), Liberty at Louisiana Tech (Week 13), Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Week 14), Kennesaw State at Liberty (Week 14)
7. Heisman race
First it was Texas’ Arch Manning and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. Then LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier. Then Oklahoma’s John Mateer. Oregon’s Dante Moore had his turn at the top of the list. Miami’s Carson Beck was up there. The mantle of Heisman Favorite has been a hot potato this season. No one has held on to it for very long.
After the past few weeks of action, with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza shining for an unbeaten team, Ty Simpson providing a slow drip of heroics during Bama’s run of four straight ranked wins and Julian Sayin completing what feels like 100% of his (mostly safe) passes against mostly overwhelmed opposition, we head into Week 9 with a clear upper tier in the race.
Current ESPN BET Heisman odds: Mendoza +300, Simpson +350, Sayin +400, Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed +1100, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia +1400, Moore +1800, Georgia’s Gunner Stockton +1800, Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love +2000, Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith +3500, Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss +3500.
If that’s the favorites list we end up with, so be it. At the end of championship weekend, Mendoza, Simpson and Sayin should all have between 3,300 and 3,600 passing yards with about 33 to 39 touchdowns. Solid work. But if you’re a believer in “Heisman Moments,” they might not have many marquee opportunities between now and the conference title games. The door could be open to Pavia or Reed, if they continue leading their respective teams to unforeseen heights. Maybe Stockton keeps bailing his team out with fourth-quarter heroics. Maybe Love produces a couple more 200-yard rushing games and captures the imagination. Maybe in the lack of some obvious 4,000-yard passer, conventional wisdom begins to home in on a defensive player like Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. or Ohio State’s Caleb Downs. This would be a fun year for a change-of-pace pick. Regardless, I don’t feel like our current favorites list is quite what we’ll have a month from now.
8. MAC title race
There are currently five teams with between a 12% and 25% chance of winning the league — Western Michigan (24.6%), Toledo (19.1%), Miami (Ohio) (19.1%), Buffalo (18.7%) and Ohio (12.3%) — and Miami plays every team on the list besides itself. The RedHawks could play for the crown themselves, but either way they’ll directly decide who gets to play for it. They host smoking-hot Western Michigan this weekend, then play a fellow contender in each of the first three weeks of November’s midweek MACtion slate.
Miami and Western Michigan have each rebounded from 0-3 starts to now stand at 4-3. Western Michigan has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 21.3 points per game during this winning streak and has jumped 32 spots in SP+ (from 124th to 92nd) in just three games.
Toledo, meanwhile, has beaten projections in five of seven games this year and ranks seventh nationally in points allowed per drive; the problem, as it usually is under Jason Candle: random duds. They lost as projected 18-point favorites to Western Michigan, then blew a 21-point lead (as a 22-point favorite) against Bowling Green. They’re favored by at least eight points in every remaining game, but another MAC dud would almost certainly eliminate them from the list.
Key upcoming games: Western Michigan at Miami (Ohio) (Week 9), Miami (Ohio) at Ohio (Week 11), Ohio at Western Michigan (Week 12), Toledo at Miami (Ohio) (Week 12), Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo (Week 13), Ohio at Buffalo (Week 14)
9. Biletnikoff Award race
The preseason watch list for the Biletnikoff Award, given to the nation’s best wide receiver, tends to feature approximately a million names, give or take. But among the six current per-game receiving yardage leaders, only three made that initial list: USC‘s Makai Lemon, Louisville’s Chris Bell and Arizona State‘s Jordyn Tyson. San José State‘s Danny Scudero and Texas A&M’s Mario Craver had to be added to the list on Oct. 1, and Illinois’ Hank Beatty was added on Oct. 15.
Of the nine wideouts listed in our preseason Top 100 players list, none are in the nation’s top 10 in receiving yards per game, and only five are in the top 50. The only reason Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, the No. 1 player in the country on that preseason list, is even in the top 15 in yards per game is because he had 272 combined yards against Grambling and Ohio. In five games against power-conference opponents, he’s averaging 66.0 yards per game and 9.4 yards per catch.
A lot of this lack of production comes from the fact that, aside from a season-opening dud against Texas (six catches, 43 yards), Ohio State hasn’t needed him to shine brightly yet. Buckeyes games haven’t been remotely close, and it’s fair to assume Smith will be just as ridiculous in their likely upcoming CFP trip as he was last year. But to win the award as the nation’s best receiver, shouldn’t you actually have to do something in-season? Will voters lean toward Lemon (108.3 yards per game), Bell (106.3) or a new star like Craver (95.4)? Will they vote for someone like Smith or Alabama’s Ryan Williams (60.4 yards per team game) based on what we all assume they are instead? It’s an interesting philosophical question.
10. Big 12 title race
Heading into Week 9 last season, Arizona State was 5-2 but only 52nd in SP+, having wobbled through a series of close games and having suffered a mid-October upset loss without injured quarterback Sam Leavitt. As you probably remember, the Sun Devils caught fire, winning six straight, winning the Big 12 with a rout of Iowa State and all but beating Texas in the CFP quarterfinals.
ASU has certainly lined up a lot of parallels heading into Week 9 of 2025. Same record? Check. Same September mediocrity? Check. Same mid-October loss sans Leavitt? Check. Another SP+ ranking in the 50s? Check (55th). Despite a 3-1 conference record, and despite last week’s upset of Texas Tech, ASU has only a 4.8% title chance at the moment, per SP+. From a statistical standpoint, a conference title run would be just as unexpected as last year’s. It would be one hell of a story if they caught fire again.
Right now, three teams have at least a 17% title chance, per SP+: Texas Tech (34.8%), BYU (25.1%) and Cincinnati (17.5%). Utah (6.6%), ASU (4.8%) and Houston (4.1%) are still in the hunt, and if Iowa State (2.6%) regains its early-season form, the Cyclones could beat some contenders down the stretch — including unbeaten BYU this weekend — and insert themselves in the race as well.
Key upcoming games: Houston at Arizona State (Week 9), Cincinnati at Utah (Week 10), BYU at Texas Tech (Week 11), BYU at Cincinnati (Week 13)
Sports
What if Ohtani WAS on that plane to Toronto? Inside an alternate World Series universe
Published
6 hours agoon
October 23, 2025By
admin
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Bradford Doolittle
CloseBradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
CloseDavid Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Oct 23, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
When the 2025 World Series starts Friday night in Toronto, Shohei Ohtani will step to the plate for the first at-bat of the Fall Classic wearing the Los Angeles Dodgers uniform we’ve all become accustomed to seeing him in over the past two MLB seasons.
But there is another world, one not as far-fetched as you might think, where Ohtani could instead be toeing the rubber for Game 1 — and coming up to bat in the bottom of the first inning — for the Toronto Blue Jays instead.
Similarly, Roki Sasaki has changed Los Angeles’ postseason by emerging as the flamethrowing closer the Dodgers desperately needed to solidify a shaky bullpen this month. But in another world, also not that far removed, Sasaki could be playing the part of rookie sensation for the Blue Jays instead of facing them with games on the line.
How close were Ohtani and Sasaki to picking the Blue Jays over the Dodgers as their much-hyped free agent decisions played out? How did the two tense decision days — one that turned the entire internet into international flight trackers — go down? How good would the Blue Jays have been the past two seasons with Ohtani on their roster? And what would the Dodgers have done to counter if they had lost out on baseball’s two-way superstar?
Let’s dig in.
Jump to:
Ohtani timeline | Sasaki timeline | Jays with Ohtani | Dodgers’ Plan B?
Timeline of the Ohtani, Blue Jays deal that never happened
The jokes are now everywhere: Hey, Shohei Ohtani is finally getting on a plane to Toronto. The Dodgers actually played in Toronto in April 2024, but we get it: There was that frenzied Friday in December 2023 when everybody thought Ohtani was on a plane headed to Toronto to sign with the Blue Jays.
What happened that day, Friday, Dec. 8? First, a user on a social media site posted that Thursday evening that a private jet — tail number N616RH — was scheduled to fly from Southern California to Toronto on Friday morning. Somebody else discovered the same jet had been in Oakland when Ohtani had met with the San Francisco Giants. A baseball writer pointed out that Ohtani’s decision to sign with the Angels six years before had come on … Dec. 8.
It was all adding up. The Dodgers Nation fan site published a report saying Ohtani had chosen the Blue Jays. Then MLB Network reported that Ohtani was traveling to Toronto. With N616RH in the air, fans began assembling at the private terminal at Toronto’s Pearson Airport.
But it wasn’t Ohtani on the plane. It was “Shark Tank” judge Robert Herjavec. On Saturday, Ohtani posted his decision on Instagram: “I have decided to choose the Dodgers as my next team.” The rest is history.
Timeline of the Sasaki, Blue Jays deal that also never happened
Upon announcing he would be coming to the majors from Japan early in the 2024-25 offseason, Roki Sasaki immediately became the most coveted free agent available, thanks to his immense talent and the team-friendly conditions of his contract.
After meeting with several teams, Sasaki’s camp revealed that the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers and Giants had all been told they were out of the running — leaving three suitors as finalists: the San Diego Padres, the Dodgers and, surprisingly, the Blue Jays.
In the final days leading up to the decision, Sasaki reportedly visited Toronto and the Jays suddenly appeared to be a real player in what had previously seemed to be a race between the two NL West teams vying for his services.
The Blue Jays’ flames were further fanned when reports came out Jan. 17 that the Padres were also out, meaning Sasaki’s decision — much like Ohtani’s an offseason earlier — would come down to Los Angeles and Toronto. The Blue Jays even made a deal with the Cleveland Guardians taking on outfielder Myles Straw, and the $13.8 million remaining on Straw’s contract, to acquire an additional $2 million in international bonus space — presumably to use on Sasaki.
Then that evening — just as Ohtani had done 13 months prior — Sasaki announced via Instagram that he would be joining the Dodgers, and Toronto was left at the doorstep once again.
Simulating the last two seasons with Ohtani in Toronto
There are a lot of choices to make when reimagining baseball history, especially when you’re talking about a transaction at the top of the hierarchy such as when Ohtani chose the Dodgers.
Once that domino fell, it set off a chain reaction that worked its way through most if not all of the majors. You can’t simply put the domino back upright, push it down the opposite direction and see how things follow.
So we’ll make a few choices, run some simulations and see where we are.
Dodgers: The L.A. part of this is more straightforward. Removing Ohtani from their mix the last two seasons would hurt them, because he produces at a level few other players can approach. But it’s not as if the Dodgers would have folded up their checkbook and gone home. They would have reallocated some portion of the funds they allotted for Ohtani to other players (see Dave’s possibilities in the next section).
For the sake of coming up with a revised Dodgers baseline, it’s better to avoid trying to guess how the Dodgers might have spent the money.
So let’s use a standard instead. The Dodgers’ competitive balance tax hit for Ohtani, per Cot’s Contracts, is estimated at $46 million per season. There’s a premium in there because of Ohtani’s stature — it’s actually hard to find a player to spend that much on — so let’s say they would have reallocated $40 million in terms of their luxury tax calculation to other resources. If we stick with the old standard of an average win purchased in free agency being valued at $8 million, we can estimate that the production from Dodgers’ Plan B player(s) would have been worth about five wins per season over the last two campaigns.
Per Baseball Reference, Ohtani produced 9.2 bWAR in 2024 for his work as a DH and 7.7 in 2025 for his pitching and hitting. So we’re going to reduce the Dodgers’ baseline by 4.2 wins in 2024 and 2.7 in 2025. My end-of-season simple power rating for L.A. in 2024 was 95.9, so we’ll take that down to 91.7. In 2025, I had them at 92.9, so we’re down to 90.2. These won’t be the precise numbers used in the simulations, as we’ve got to make sure the distribution of wins across the majors totals up to the 2,430 wins at stake in a big league season, but these numbers are close.
Blue Jays: The Toronto adjustment is a little more complicated in that we actually know what they did after they failed to land Ohtani. What we don’t know is what moves would not have occurred had they signed him, or the contract he ultimately would have gotten from Toronto. Let’s start with the financial part.
Luckily, we had Jeff Passan and Alden Gonzalez on the case, so we know that Ohtani reportedly presented other teams, including the Blue Jays, with the same terms he gave to the Dodgers and that Toronto agreed to them. So we can use that same $46 million as Toronto’s CBT number on the Jays’ balance sheet, though the ramifications for the Jays in that regard are different because of their lower overall payroll.
After Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, the Blue Jays signed three veteran free agent hitters: Isiah Kiner-Falefa (two years, $15 million), Kevin Kiermaier (one year, $10.5 million) and Justin Turner (one year, $13 million). The 2024 payout for those three was a combined $38.5 million, and it would take some additional belt tightening to get to Ohtani’s salary. The Jays’ Opening Day payroll was about $13 million over the first CBT threshold and $7 million below the second. So they could ax this trio, drop Ohtani into the payroll, and still likely stay under the second threshold, if that was a goal.
Kiner-Falefa, Kiermaier and Turner posted a combined 4.5 bWAR between them, and frankly, reconfiguring the Toronto depth chart to absorb their absences isn’t that hard. The difference between their production and Ohtani’s is a hefty 4.7 bWAR, so we’ll add that to Toronto’s 2024 baseline. Alas, the Jays weren’t very good in 2024, so adding that figure to their end-of-season power ranking (70.9) takes them up to only 75.6.
Working Ohtani’s $46 million onto Toronto’s 2025 payroll is more challenging. According to Cot’s, Toronto’s end-of-season CBT payroll was $28 million over the first threshold and $8 million over the second. Certainly, the Blue Jays would not have signed Anthony Santander if they had Ohtani in hand and, perhaps, knowing Ohtani could also pitch for them in 2025, perhaps they would not have sprung for Max Scherzer.
Even so, because Santander’s deal involved so much deferred money, we’re still talking about a tax payroll that’s something like another $17 million higher even after we drop Scherzer and Santander. But, hey, it’s not our money, so let’s do it. For the sake of this exercise, we won’t have Toronto pursue Sasaki after Ohtani becomes a Blue Jay.
There are other possible consequences that, for now, we’ll ignore. First of all, would the Blue Jays have been able to be as aggressive in extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a long-term deal if they knew Ohtani had the DH spot locked up for the next decade? Would George Springer‘s bounce-back season been harmed by having to spend more time in the field? Worth thinking about.
But we’ll stick with the straightforward adjustments. Together, Scherzer (0.2 bWAR) and Santander (minus-1.0) were a net drag on the Blue Jays’ bottom line. Replacing them with Ohtani is a huge gain, though we’re cheating a bit by not doing more of a playing time redistribution. Scherzer was limited to 85 innings during the season, but Ohtani logged only 47. But Ohtani rolled up 727 plate appearances, dwarfing Santander’s 221. In other words, Ohtani would have also usurped at-bats from players such as Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger and Davis Schneider, just to start.
We’ll keep it simple and just add Ohtani’s 7.7 2025 bWAR to the Blue Jays’ bottom line. Toronto’s power rating was 90.1 at the end of the season, so we’re at an elite 97.8. Now we’re getting somewhere.
Let’s sim that out and see what happens.
2024: The actual Blue Jays went 74-88 with a run differential that suggested their record was in lockstep with their quality of play. The true talent level of the team was better than that, with or without Ohtani. Toronto won 89 games in 2023 and made the postseason. They’re in the World Series this year. Sometimes decent teams have bad seasons — take heart, Orioles fans! — and that was Toronto in 2024.
With Ohtani on board in our what-if world, the Blue Jays won the World Series in just three of 10,000 simulations. Maybe having Ohtani’s historic production on the roster would have boosted the rest of the squad, but we can’t know that for sure. They did make the playoffs about 7% of the time, so it was less hopeless than real life. Still, even with Ohtani, the 2024 Jays would have entered that offseason believing they had work to do.
As for the Dodgers, there is nowhere to go but down since, after all, they won the World Series. In the no-Ohtani world, the Dodgers’ reduced baseline got them into the playoffs in 73% of the sims. That seems low, but dropping them to a 90-win team or so puts them on a crowded tier in the big league landscape. The Dodgers still made the World Series 13% of the time and won the title 7% of the time, behind the now-heavily-favored Yankees (24%), Phillies and Astros (both 8%).
Finally, in our 10,000 resimulations of the 2024 season, the Dodgers played the Blue Jays in the World Series four times. Los Angeles won all four showdowns.
2025: One factor is Ohtani’s innings workload as it might have been for Toronto. We’re leaving his 7.7 bWAR as is, but you have to think the Blue Jays might have been somewhat more aggressive in ramping up his innings count, simply because they lack the ridiculous depth of the Dodgers’ staff. Still, adding his two-way punch to the roster and performance of the 2025 Blue Jays gives Toronto easily the top-rated baseline in our resimulated campaign.
That shows up in the end-of-season probabilities and would render Toronto as a solid favorite if it did end up meeting the Ohtani-less Dodgers in the World Series. Because L.A.’s regular season was, for the Dodgers, a bit lackluster, losing Ohtani doesn’t really move them down a tier as it did in the 2024 reimagining. But it certainly doesn’t help.
We can do a little bit more in direct comparison with the current season. The Blue Jays made the postseason in 92% of the simulations. In the actual postseason, Toronto started off with an 11% shot at winning it all, using this system of power rankings, behind Milwaukee and New York. With Ohtani, they won an MLB-high 15% of the simulations. Meanwhile, the Dodgers made the playoffs 71% of the time, similar to the 2024 resimulation, and won the Series around 6% of the time.
This method isn’t entirely fair to the 2025 Dodgers, whose true talent level is well above what they did in the regular season. That would be better reflected if I had used projections rather than the actual final standings. But the Dodgers did what they did, so don’t blame me. We’re seeing that true talent level in action this October.
As you expect, a Dodgers-Blue Jays World Series cropped up way more often in the 2025 sims — 277 times, altogether. In those matchups, the Blue Jays went 171-106 (61.7%). This is roughly the polar opposite of most of the Dodgers-favored World Series odds that are circulating right now. In my system, the reversal is almost exact: The Dodgers are winning 60.9% of the sims in most post-LCS analysis.
So if you want to know how different a Dodgers-Blue Jays World Series would look had Shohei been on that plane, that’s the bottom line: Exactly the opposite.
Five moves the Dodgers could have made if they didn’t land Ohtani
But what if Ohtani had been on that plane? While Brad’s simulations are best served by not playing the what-if game, we know L.A. would have done something — and knowing the Dodgers, likely something big. What might the Dodgers’ 2024-25 offseason have looked like without Ohtani? Where might that money have gone?
In our alternate universe, we have to remember how the 2023 season ended for the Dodgers: with the Diamondbacks sweeping the Dodgers in the NLDS after the Dodgers started an injured Clayton Kershaw (who got one out and allowed six runs); started Bobby Miller (who got five outs and allowed three runs); and started Lance Lynn (who had led the majors with 44 home runs allowed, got eight outs and allowed four home runs in the third inning).
The focus was on starting pitching, which is why after signing Ohtani the Dodgers traded for Tyler Glasnow and then signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Without Ohtani, however, here are five other moves that would have made sense (all these players were involved in transactions that happened after Dec. 9, 2024):
1. Trade for Dylan Cease
What really happened: The Padres acquired Cease from the Chicago White Sox
One reason the Dodgers signed Ohtani and Yamamoto was they were admittedly getting tired of trading prospects. Until this 2023-24 offseason, they had rarely dipped into the big-money free agency in the Andrew Friedman era (Freddie Freeman and Trevor Bauer had been the only $100 million free agents the Dodgers had signed).
They might have made an exception to trade for Cease. He’s the kind of pitcher the Dodgers love, with a big power arm. More importantly, coming off all the Dodgers’ injuries in 2023, Cease had made 32 starts in 2021, 32 in 2022 and 33 in 2023. Corbin Burnes was also traded after Ohtani had signed, but Cease had two years of control left versus just one for Burnes. Chris Sale also went from the Boston Red Sox to the Atlanta Braves and went on to win the Cy Young Award, but his proneness to injury would have scared off the Dodgers.
2. Sign Blake Snell — a year early
What really happened: Snell signed with the Giants for two years, $62 million
Snell was coming off a Cy Young Award with the Padres in 2023, his second, and was looking for a mega-contract. ESPN predicted six years and $150 million; MLB Trade Rumors predicted seven years and $200 million. The Philadelphia Phillies, Mets, Red Sox and Dodgers were considered the favorites to sign him, with many other teams in the mix.
That big offer never arrived, with teams worried about Snell’s inconsistency. His free agency lingered deep into spring training until he finally signed with the Giants just 10 days before the start of the season. His deal included an opt-out, which he exercised after a scintillating stretch run with the Giants (1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts). This time, the Dodgers decided they wanted him, and they signed him after the 2024 season.
3. Sign Josh Hader
What really happened: Hader signed with the Houston Astros for five years, $95 million
Might the Dodgers have gone after a reliever? The bullpen had been pretty good in 2023, ranking third in the majors in ERA, with Evan Phillips (2.05 ERA, 24 saves) and Brusdar Graterol (1.20 ERA, seven saves) leading the way. But the Dodgers had also relied on castoffs such as Ryan Brasier, Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller, so you could argue that an elite closer like Hader was a good fit. Plus, as the Dodgers showed in the 2024-25 offseason after spending $72 million on Tanner Scott, they are willing to spend big money on a closer.
4. Sign Jung Hoo Lee
What really happened: Lee signed with Giants for six years, $113 million
Lee was one of the top outfielders available in free agency, a star in Korea who projected as a leadoff hitter with a high average and good defense in center field. The Dodgers’ outfield in 2023 included David Peralta, who was 35, and James Outman, who had kind of a fluky good rookie season. The Dodgers did end up signing Teoscar Hernandez to a one-year deal, but when Mookie Betts initially moved to shortstop and Outman predictably floundered, they were playing Jason Heyward and had to trade for Tommy Edman. Lee would have been a fit for center field, although he hasn’t been as good as expected with the Giants, who overpaid by some $40 million-$50 million compared with the initial predictions, so maybe the Dodgers dodged a bad signing here.
5. Sign Matt Chapman
What really happened: Chapman signed with Giants for three years, $54 million
Max Muncy was coming off a 36-homer season in 2023, but he had hit .196 in 2022 and .212 in 2023. Plus, there is no Ohtani here, so the Dodgers could have signed Chapman and moved Muncy to the DH role or maybe even to second base, where Muncy had played a lot from 2019 to 2022 and was a position that had been a problem for the Dodgers in 2023 (Miguel Vargas started the most games there, with Betts eventually starting by the end of the season).
Sports
Two Blue Jays in the top 3? Ranking the best players in the 2025 World Series
Published
6 hours agoon
October 23, 2025By
admin
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Kiley McDanielOct 22, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- ESPN MLB Insider
- Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
- Has worked for three MLB teams.
Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the overwhelming favorites to win the 2025 World Series and become the first repeat champion in a quarter century.
That doesn’t mean they’ve cornered all the talent in this year’s Fall Classic.
In fact, the American League champion Toronto Blue Jays feature two of the top three players heading into the series and nearly half of our top 20.
Let’s dig into the stars — ranking the best of the series participants on how good I think they’ll be in this series and predicting who will take home some superlatives by the time the dust settles.
Top 20 players in the World Series
1. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Dodgers
Ohtani put up a combined 9.4 WAR in the regular season and is a huge favorite to win the National League MVP again. Then, he one-upped himself with one of the greatest athletic performances of all time: six scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and three home runs in the clinching game of the NL Championship Series.
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays
Guerrero had a big regular season — 3.9 WAR despite the sixth-worst ball-in-play luck in the league — but has been white-hot in the playoffs, leading postseason players in most major offensive categories.
3. George Springer, DH, Blue Jays
Springer led the Jays in WAR in the regular season, has been very good this postseason and his iconic ALCS Game 7 homer will live on.
4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Dodgers
All four of the Dodgers’ starting pitchers are on a heater, but Yamamoto was the best of the group in the regular season by a lot and one of the top five pitchers in baseball.
5. Blake Snell, SP, Dodgers
Snell missed the first two-thirds of the season with shoulder inflammation but came back looking as good as ever. He might be on the best run of his career right now, with a 0.86 ERA in three playoff starts and the second-best underlying numbers (xFIP and xERA) in the playoffs among starters, behind Detroit’s Tarik Skubal.
6. Mookie Betts, SS, Dodgers
Betts, a clear future Hall of Famer, is 33 years old and has lost the standout power from his peak years but is still an impact player.
7. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers
One of the most consistently elite hitters of this era, Freeman just keeps performing — and he has a history of coming up large in the playoffs.
8. Alejandro Kirk, C, Blue Jays
Kirk was quietly the second-best all-around catcher in the league this year behind Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, but isn’t a huge star since his value is largely driven by on-base skills and pitch framing.
9. Max Muncy, 3B, Dodgers
Muncy is surprisingly solid as a baserunner and a defensive third baseman, and he has always been a dangerous hitter.
10. Tyler Glasnow, SP, Dodgers
Glasnow’s walks crept up during the regular season and the playoffs, but he has been missing bats as always and is inducing weak contact during his current hot streak.
11. Will Smith, C, Dodgers
Smith hasn’t been very good offensively in the playoffs but had the third-best WAR amongst catchers in the majors this season, behind only Raleigh and Kirk.
12. Ernie Clement, 2B/3B, Blue Jays
Clement posted a quietly solid 3.2 WAR this season, driven mostly by contact and defense, but has gone to another level in the postseason, hitting .429 with almost no ball-in-play luck, due to his 4% strikeout rate. He’s on a heater, but the Dodgers’ staff is the type to possibly end that streak.
13. Daulton Varsho, CF, Blue Jays
Varsho is above average at basically everything on the baseball field but isn’t truly elite at much. He missed time with shoulder and hamstring issues this year but was on track for a career-best 4-ish WAR season.
14. Kevin Gausman, SP, Blue Jays
Gausman posted the 10th-best pitcher WAR in baseball this season but has one of the lowest fastball velocities of pitchers in that range and has been hit around in the playoffs, though his career playoff performances are close to his regular-season quality.
15. Tommy Edman, 2B, Dodgers
Edman is a good defender at almost any position but had the 12th-unluckiest ball-in-play outcomes this regular season. That luck has turned around in the playoffs.
16. Trey Yesavage, SP, Blue Jays
Like Gausman, Yesavage’s splitter is his best secondary pitch, and he doesn’t have standout fastball velocity or breaking ball quality. That said, Yesavage’s splitter has been confounding hitters in his six career big league appearances, half of which have been in the playoffs.
17. Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays
It sounds like Bichette will be able to return to the Jays’ lineup for the World Series, but he has been out the past six weeks with a knee injury and it’s hard to know what he’ll look like in the short term.
18. Addison Barger, RF, Blue Jays
Barger is usable defensively at a number of positions and broke out this year to be an above-average hitter, mostly due to his power.
19. Andy Pages, CF, Dodgers
Pages hasn’t been terrible at the plate this postseason, but he was a standout hitter (.272 average, 24 homers) and defender (plus-7 runs in 117 starts in center field) in the regular season, en route to 4.0 WAR.
20. Teoscar Hernandez, RF, Dodgers
Hernandez hit for power in the regular season (25 homers) but didn’t draw many walks or stand out defensively. This postseason, he has been hitting for even more power on a rate basis, so he sneaks on this list.
Superlatives
Fastest pitch of the World Series will be thrown by: Roki Sasaki
Sasaki narrowly wins this matchup with the hardest-thrown pitch among these teams in the playoffs at 100.8 mph, and he’s fresher than Louis Varland (100.7 mph) and can go more max effort than Ohtani (100.3 mph).
Others in the mix: Ohtani
Best breaking pitch will be: Emmet Sheehan‘s slider
Sheehan’s slider was, per pitch thrown, the best pitch on the Dodgers’ staff this season. It doesn’t have a gaudy spin rate or crazy movement, but he throws it hard and hitters can’t seem to track it.
Others in the mix: Yariel Rodriguez‘s slider, Braydon Fisher‘s slider, Brendon Little‘s curveball, Jack Dreyer‘s slider, Glasnow’s curveball, Shane Bieber‘s curveball
Best changeup/splitter will be: Yesavage’s splitter
Yesavage offers a unique combination of movement profile (his slider moves to his arm side), a very high arm slot, and short extension which brings his release even higher. Hitters haven’t seen something like this before. Then add in a killer splitter (which he barely threw at East Carolina, where he was last season) and hitters don’t know what to do.
Others in the mix: Yamamoto’s splitter, Gausman’s splitter, Snell’s changeup
Most whiffs will be thrown by: Snell
Snell has been red-hot in the postseason (I explain why here) and should get two starts, but there are a number of strong candidates for this.
Others in the mix: Yamamoto, Yesavage, Glasnow
Hardest hit ball in play will be hit by: Guerrero
The odds for this are as close to 50/50 as you can get. Guerrero (120.4) and Ohtani (120.0 mph) were second and third in max exit velo during the regular season behind Cincinnati’s Oneil Cruz (122.9). Ohtani has a slight edge in playoff max EV at 117.7 to Vlad’s 116.0. I’ll lean to Vlad because he has been running hotter at the plate and thus will get a few more chances to smoke one at a gaudy number, but Ohtani will be facing a weaker pitching staff, so this is still a coin flip.
Also in the mix: Ohtani
Highest sprint speed will be recorded by: Clement
The other main candidates are part-time players who might get only some chances to open it up on the bases, but I expect Clement to be on base often in the series.
Others in the mix: Hyeseong Kim, Edman, Myles Straw
The batter who will record the most hits: Guerrero
Clement (second in postseason hits with 18) might be held back a bit by the quality of the Dodgers’ pitchers while Guerrero (first in postseason hits with 19) also makes a ton of contact but gets the margin for error of having huge power, too.
Others in the mix: Clement, Nathan Lukes, Betts, Freeman, Springer
Best defender will be: Kirk
If you consider framing to be a part of defensive value (you definitely should) and also factor in positional difficulty (I think you should), then Kirk is the answer. He’ll be impacting roughly half of the pitches in the series and he was the second-best framer in the league behind San Francisco’s Patrick Bailey this regular season.
Others in the mix: Clement, Edman, Betts
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