Who is Yordenis Ugas, and why is he fighting Manny Pacquiao?
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Mike CoppingerESPN
YORDENIS UGAS WAS silent. He was happy, soaking in the moment. The 35-year-old had just received an unexpected call, offering him an opportunity he’d long dreamed of.
The answer about whether or not he’d take a fight against boxing’s only eight-division champion, Manny Pacquiao, was never in doubt. Of course he said yes.
And when Ugas steps into the ring against Pacquiao on Saturday in Las Vegas, he’ll be defending his WBA “super” welterweight title against a 42-year-old living legend having only 11 days’ notice.
Both men were training for drastically different fights on the same card: Pacquiao against IBF and WBC world title holder Errol Spence Jr.; Ugas against Fabian Maidana. Both Spence and Maidana suffered eye injuries that knocked them out of those fights. Suddenly, Pacquiao and Ugas were set to headline a PBC on Fox pay-per-view at T-Mobile Arena.
“I was surprised,” says Ugas, ESPN’s No. 6 boxer at 147 pounds. “I had emotion running through [me], but I also knew I was prepared. This was meant for a reason.”
If Ugas seems unfazed, it’s because of everything he’s been through over the past decade in his professional career, and everything that led up to this point. He’s an Olympic medalist for his native Cuba, who defected to the United States to pursue his professional dreams. He spent two years (from 2014 to 2016), retired from the sport. And before he could even launch his professional career, Ugas struggled for years to get his feet underneath him.
The stars have finally aligned for Ugas. It’s been a long time coming.
TWO YEARS AFTER winning bronze at the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, Ugas made the only choice available if he wanted to pursue his dream of winning a world title: He defected from Cuba.
“Imagine being in the open sea for two days, you’re in a small little boat so you’re all over the place with the waves,” Ugas recalled. “I thought at every moment I was going to die. It’s not something I would wish on anyone; it’s very dangerous.”
That small raft brought him from Cuba to Mexico. From there, he made his way to Miami, where many Cuban defectors have settled over the past few decades.
Living in the United States with a minimal support system and little money was difficult, and lonely. During those seemingly never-ending days, Ugas would head over to McDonald’s and order a dollar-menu apple pie. Not just one — sometimes as many as seven. It was comfort food, and the only meal he could afford that would offer any solace.
But Ugas’ pro career started well enough inside the ring. He recorded five wins in 2010, and that November, two key things happened: Ugas got his first up-close look at Pacquiao, when Pacquiao picked apart Antonio Margarito in a 154-pound title fight and became boxing’s first eight-division world champion. And that night, as Ugas was ringside at the home of the Dallas Cowboys, he met Bob Arum and laid the groundwork for his first promotional contract.
“Ugas was wearing a white suit, he had that Don Johnson look, no shirt on, and Arum f—ing falls in love with the look,” Top Rank Boxing matchmaker Brad Goodman recalled. “Arum thought he was the real deal.”
TOP RANK SIGNED Ugas and placed him on a February 2011 card against Carlos Musquez. Ugas won his first six fights with the promotion, running his record to 11-0 with five knockouts.
Then they stepped up the competition for Ugas with a fight against Johnny Garcia, on Showtime’s prospect-oriented series, ShoBox: The New Generation. It was a disaster for Ugas, who suffered his first professional loss via split decision. And that wasn’t all.
“His first showing to really showcase his skills, and he lost a split decision,” Goodman says. “He really didn’t go out there and shine like he was supposed to. We were just real down [on him] and we just released him.”
The release, Ugas says, was a psychological blow that took him years to recover from. He won four fights after parting ways with Top Rank, but then lost back-to-back fights against Emanuel Robles and Amir Imam in 2014. Following the unanimous-decision setback to Imam that May, Ugas suddenly called it quits.
His career hadn’t gone the way he planned; far from it, in fact. At 15-3, and just four years into his pro career, Ugas couldn’t handle losing. He had been one of the best amateurs in Cuban history, winning several national championships and a gold medal at the 2005 World Championships in Mianyang, China.
“Dark days back then, it was very depressing,” Ugas said, via translation from his manager, Luis DeCubas. “I’ve been competing in boxing over 20 years; never not been competing; never thought I didn’t have a future. Sitting in a room with no future, no money, no life: it’s pretty depressing. You think the worst things.
“I was retired, 100 percent out of boxing; wasn’t sure what I was going to do. I was confused. I didn’t know what I was going to do in life, period. … Bad time in my career; bad time in life.”
“He’s not a drinker, but [he was] hanging out until late, not taking things seriously, not running,” said DeCubas.
Ugas was living in New Jersey at that point, and to get by, he worked odd jobs to pay the bills — the first jobs he ever had outside of boxing. Hard labor.
Then Ugas received the call that “100 percent changed my life.” On the other line, along with DeCubas, was Aroldis Chapman, the future MLB All-Star closer. Chapman, a fellow Cuban defector and one of Ugas’ closest friends since they arrived in Miami, had signed a lucrative contract with the Cincinnati Reds in January 2010, and he was ready to offer Ugas a much-needed lifeline and a doorway back into boxing.
The message from Chapman: “I’ll give you the money to move to Vegas, but you better take this as your last opportunity.”
WHILE HE WAS living in New Jersey during that two-year hiatus, Ugas had plenty of time to think. He couldn’t wrap his head around it all. How had he reached this point?
He surveyed the boxing landscape and saw who was thriving. Terence Crawford? Ugas beat him when they met in the Pan American Games qualifier in Barquisimeto, Venezuela, in 2007. Sadam Ali. Darleys Perez. Jose Pedraza. Along with Crawford, all titleholders at that time. And all fighters Ugas had beaten as an amateur.
“These guys are champions; I’m not a champion?” Ugas recalls thinking. “I gotta be a champion.”
Determined to make the most of the opportunity Chapman placed at his feet, Ugas packed up what little he owned and moved to Las Vegas for a fresh start — linking up with trainer Ismael Salas, another Cuban, and reuniting with DeCubas. He changed his lifestyle and dedicated himself completely to his craft.
He also moved up in weight, from 140 pounds to 147, and witnessed the birth of his son, Yordenis Jr. — the two biggest factors in his dramatic turnaround, Ugas says.
During the second act of his career with DeCubas, in which he eventually signed with Al Haymon’s Premier Boxing Champions promotion, Ugas impressed as a reliable fill-in. Less than a year into his return, Ugas scored a second-round stoppage vs. Nelson Lara on two days’ notice in 2017. Later that year, he agreed to take on an even better opponent on one week’s notice, defeating Thomas Dulorme by decision.
“I could tell when he came out [to Las Vegas,] he wasn’t playing around,” DeCubas said.
“He just made a complete turnaround. He has all the ability in the world,” said Goodman, who considers Ugas’ inside game his best attribute. “… He’s very calm. He carries a lot of confidence. Nothing rattles him.”
By 2019, Ugas had put together eight consecutive victories, and lined up opposite Shawn Porter for a WBC welterweight title shot — the kind of opportunity he had long dreamed of. Despite being as much as a +400 underdog, Ugas went punch for punch with Porter, and in the minds of many in the boxing world watching that night, did enough to win. But the cards ultimately went against him, albeit narrowly in a split decision.
Besides the controversial defeat to Porter, Ugas’ résumé includes decision wins over solid fighters like Jamal James, Abel Ramos and Omar Figueroa Jr., as well as TKOs vs. Bryant Perrella and Ray Robinson.
None of those boxers, of course, come close to the legendary Pacquiao.
1:03
Manny Pacquiao shares his thoughts on his new opponent Yordenis Ugas, following Errol Spence Jr.’s withdrawal due to injury.
SEVEN YEARS ON from hitting the pause button in his career, Ugas, a fighter once labeled a bust, is on the doorstep of a life-changing opportunity.
“I never expected to fight Manny Pacquiao, especially at his age and how much more ahead [of me] he was,” Ugas said. “He’s such a great fighter and he showed [it] with what he did against Keith Thurman and Adrien Broner [in his two most recent fights]. What a great fighter he still is, even at 42 years old.
“He’s one of the greatest fighters of all time, there’s no question about it. It’s going to be a pleasure and honor to share the ring with a legend. But once the bell rings, all that goes out the window and it’s a fight. It’s not, ‘I’m fighting Manny Pacquiao.’ I’m fighting for my life.”
“He has to prepare for his future outside of boxing; these are the fights that do that,” DeCubas says. “And a win over Pacquiao sets him up for life.”
Ugas (26-4, 12 KOs) enters the fight against Pacquiao as the WBA champion, a position he was elevated to back in January. The old champ? Pacquiao, who won the title from Thurman in July 2019 but hasn’t fought since. Due to the long layoff, the WBA appointed him champion in recess. Pacquiao petitioned the WBA to be reinstated ahead of the Spence fight, but in a surprise decision, the WBA ruled last month to maintain Ugas as champion.
“Ugas is a champion because they gave him my belt,” Pacquiao said last week. “Now, we have to settle it inside of the ring. I cannot take him lightly because he’s the kind of fighter who will take advantage of that.”
Ugas is in a familiar position, both as a last-minute replacement and as a +280 betting underdog as of Wednesday morning at Caesars Sportsbook.
Given what he has fought through — defecting from Cuba, fighting back from a two-year hiatus and the disappointment of not getting the win over Porter, among many other challenges along the way — doubting Ugas’ chances Saturday is a risky position to take.
“If he’s overlooking me, he’s going to have a problem,” Ugas said. “I’m in the prime of my career. I’m a world champion; I’m fighting at the highest level I ever fought. You put the championship pedigree with the Olympic pedigree — I can’t wait for the fight.”
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Greg Wyshynski
The Nashville Predators disagreed that a “weird” Minnesota Wild overtime goal scored with the net displaced Tuesday night should have counted.
Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov sent a pass across the crease to teammate Marcus Johansson just as Predators goalie Justus Annunen pushed the net off its moorings. Johansson’s shot hit the side of the net as the cage continued to slide out of place. He collected the puck and then backhanded it over the goal line and off the end boards with the net dislodged.
The referee signaled a goal at 3:38 of overtime, and it was upheld after an NHL video review. Minnesota won, 3-2, overcoming an emotional letdown when Nashville’s Steven Stamkos tied the score with just 0.3 seconds left in regulation.
“The explanation was that, in [the referee’s] opinion, it was a goal. I disagree with his opinion, but that’s the way it is,” Nashville coach Andrew Brunette said.
Stamkos wasn’t pleased with the goal call after the game.
“Obviously, a weird play. I can see the confusion, but the confusing part for us was why it was so emphatically called [a goal]. I get it. Listen, the net came off. If the puck goes in right away, no problem if the net is off. But he missed the net, and the puck actually bounced back to him because the net was sideways,” he said.
The NHL’s Situation Room upheld the goal because it felt Annunen caused the net to be displaced prior to an “imminent scoring opportunity” by Johansson and cited Rule 63.7 as justification. The rule reads:
“In the event that the goal post is displaced, either deliberately or accidentally, by a defending player, prior to the puck crossing the goal line between the normal position of the goalposts, the Referee may award a goal. In order to award a goal in this situation, the goal post must have been displaced by the actions of a defending player, the attacking player must have an imminent scoring opportunity prior to the goal post being displaced, and it must be determined that the puck would have entered the net between the normal position of the goal posts.”
Stamkos didn’t believe that Johansson’s goal-scoring shot was only made possible by the net having come off its moorings.
“I understand the net came off. I don’t think there was any intent from our goaltender to knock it off — it came off twice today. From our vantage point, we thought the puck came back to him on the second attempt because the net was off. If not, the puck goes behind the net, and we live to fight another day. So, that’s where we didn’t agree with the call,” he said.
Brunette doesn’t believe his goalie intentionally pushed the net off its moorings.
“I don’t think just by the physics of pushing that’s what he was trying to do. I thought they missed the net. If the net didn’t dislodge, you would have ended up hitting the net,” he said.
“Unfortunately, they didn’t see it the same way. And you move on.”
This was the second win in a row for the Wild, moving them to 5-6-3 on the season. Nashville dropped to 5-6-4, losing its second straight overtime game.
“We deserved a lot better, for sure. One of our best games of the season, for sure,” Stamkos said.
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David Hale
The College Football Playoff committee has released its first top 25 ranking of the season, which is the sport’s version of Walmart opening its doors at midnight on Black Friday. Things are about to get ugly, and someone’s going to end up bloodied while fighting Oklahoma for a spot in the top 12. In other words, it’s the best time of year.
This year, the committee has said it is considering a new “record strength” metric, designed to provide some math-based guidance in the process and to soon replace “game control” as the country’s most hated made-up statistic.
Ten weeks into a season filled with a lot of chaos and few seemingly great teams, however, the committee needs all the help it can get. For example, just eight teams in the country have already beaten more than one of the committee’s current top 25 — and one of those eight teams is NC State. Utah, Iowa, Oregon, Pitt, Washington, Missouri and Tennessee — all ranked this week — are a combined 0-12 against other teams in the committee’s top 25. The ACC doesn’t have a team ranked higher than 14th, and the Group of 5 doesn’t have a team ranked at all, making these rankings less about the coveted top 12 than a need to be in the top 10.
In other words, there’s a lot still in flux as we dive deeper into the final month of the season. But that means our anger toward the committee is just simmering for now, waiting for the rage to boil over in the weeks to come.
Still, a few schools have a pretty good case for outrage already.
In all the hubbub over last year’s final playoff rankings that left a trio of SEC teams out, what went overlooked was that BYU might have had more to be angry about than Alabama, Ole Miss or South Carolina. Two of those teams, at least, had taken a bad loss. Each of those teams had three losses. BYU, on the other hand, checked in on the committee’s final ranking behind each of them despite a 10-2 record and two close losses to solid teams.
So, certainly the committee would feel some compassion for the Cougars this year and consider the Cougars with a bit more optimism, right?
Ah, no.
Let’s take a look at some blind résumés.
Team A: No. 3 strength of record, No. 33 strength of schedule, 4-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 11 in the committee’s poll.
Team B: No. 4 strength of record, No. 45 strength of schedule, 3-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 13 in the committee’s poll.
Sure, Team A has a slight edge, but the résumés look pretty similar.
Well, Team A is the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. Surely, if another team’s résumé looks more or less the same, that team would be staring down a bye in the first round of the playoff, right?
Nope. Team B is BYU, and the Cougars sit behind three SEC teams with a loss, all three of which are ranked lower in ESPN’s strength of record metric.
Given that BYU has a massive showdown with Texas Tech upcoming, perhaps the committee just punted on any tough decisions on the Cougars for this week. After all, given how much love the committee has shown the Big Ten in these rankings, punting would be a fitting play.
We get it. As a conference, the ACC might, in fact, just be an episode of “Punk’d” that Ashton Kutcher started in 2008, then got distracted and forgot to let everyone know it was a prank. The conference’s train wreck in Week 10 certainly showed up in these rankings — more on that in a moment — but it’s almost as if the committee just threw Louisville into the mix, deciding the Cardinals were guilty by association.
Let’s take another look at some blind résumés, shall we?
Team A: No. 10 strength of record, No. 58 strength of schedule, one win vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 13 team, lone loss vs. an unranked team.
Team B: No. 13 strength of record, No. 56 strength of schedule, three wins vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 18 team, lone loss to committee’s No. 14 team.
This is basically a coin flip, though given the additional wins vs. high-level opponents and a better loss, it would be hard to argue against Team B, right? Add to that, Team B’s lone loss came in double overtime in a game when it outgained its opponent by 150 yards. Surely, you would be on Team B’s side now, right?
Well, not surprisingly, Team B is Louisville. Team A is Texas Tech, ranked seven spots higher at No. 8.
There seems to be a desire to write Miami off because of two losses in the past three games and given the strife the team seems to be enduring on offense, perhaps that’s wise.
But two things are supposed to be true of the committee’s evaluation process. One, the committee is not supposed to care when wins and losses happen. Losing in September isn’t better than losing in November. A loss is a loss. Second, the committee is not supposed to make assumptions about the future. Sure, Miami’s offense is a mess at the moment, but assuming that will result in future losses isn’t part of the deal.
And yet, putting Miami at No. 18 — eight full spots behind another two-loss team the Canes beat head-to-head — can only be explained by the vibes. Notre Dame’s season is rolling right along now. Miami has hit some stumbling blocks. Never mind the Canes are two late Carson Beck interceptions away from still being undefeated. Never mind that Miami has four wins vs. FPI top-35 teams, twice as many as any other two-loss team except Oklahoma. Never mind that Miami has that head-to-head against the No. 10 team in the committee’s rankings or that it walloped a Florida team that took No. 5 Georgia to the wire and actually beat No. 11 Texas. Never mind that Miami beat a then-ranked USF by 37.
Instead, the committee has assigned Miami to the scrap heap now — which is a shame because Miami would probably have done this to itself anyway, and it’s so much funnier when it happens in the last game of the season.
4. The Group of 5
A year ago, Boise State found its way into a first-round bye ahead of the champion of a Power 4 league, which was probably pretty embarrassing for that Power 4 league except that the ACC embarrasses itself often enough to be pretty well immune to shame.
The rules have changed this year. The top four conference champs aren’t guaranteed a first-round bye now. But that doesn’t seem to have stopped the committee from stacking the deck anyway, just to be safe.
Not one team outside the Power 4 found its way into these initial rankings, though the committee notes that Memphis currently is in the lead for the long Group of 5 playoff bid.
So, surely the Group of 5 should be pretty upset, right?
Yes, but not about being snubbed from the top-25 party. None of the leaders in the Group of 5 have a great case — certainly none like Boise State had a year ago. But Memphis? Really? The same team that lost by a touchdown to a UAB team had just fired its coach?
In the committee’s new guidance to consider record strength, there is an assumption that really bad losses are weighted heavily, but that certainly hasn’t been the case this time around.
North Texas has one loss to SP+ No. 27.
James Madison has one loss to SP+ No. 16 (and the No. 15 team in the committee’s rankings).
San Diego State has one loss to SP+ No. 73 has one loss to SP+ No. 119.
Memphis has one loss to SP+ No. 119.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the Tigers weren’t punished at all for a terrible loss.
5. The SEC
The latter half of the committee’s top 25 is usually the equivalent of the phone lines for a Finebaum episode — just a place where a lot of mediocre SEC folks hang out, patiently waiting for their turn. But this time, the committee has stuffed the bottom of the rankings with Big Ten teams — No. 19 USC, No. 20 Iowa, No. 21 Michigan and No. 23 Washington — and that might actually matter in the long run.
One of the committee’s favored metrics is wins over ranked opponents. We’re dubious about how many Big Ten teams deserve a little number next to their name. The league still has four teams that have yet to win a conference game, and the bottom third is a complete dumpster fire. It’s easy to rack up some wins when half your conference schedule has already been embarrassed by UCLA’s interim coaching staff.
But the SEC — that’s where the real depth is. Nearly half the SEC’s conference games this season have been one-possession affairs. Mississippi State, a team that had gone nearly two years without an SEC win, already knocked off last year’s Big 12 champ. LSU, a team that fired its coach, has a win over last year’s ACC champ. Florida beat Texas. Putting a bunch of undeserving teams at the bottom of the rankings only serves to prop up the résumés of teams such as Oregon, which hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence. And frankly, the committee is supposed to do that for the SEC, not the Big Ten.
Also angry: Virginia Cavaliers (8-1, No. 14, behind four two-loss teams), USF Bulls (6-2, unranked), Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3, unranked), Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2, unranked), Brian Kelly (just angry for other reasons).
The ACC is already playing from behind, and it’s only the first ranking of the season. With no teams ranked in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s initial top 12 on Tuesday night, the lone ACC team in the bracket if it were released today would be No. 14 Virginia. The Cavaliers would earn a spot as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion.
As for No. 17 Georgia Tech and No. 18 Miami? Not even a head-to-head win against the No. 10-ranked Fighting Irish was enough to keep the Canes within playoff range after their loss at SMU.
It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés. Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s first ranking on Tuesday night.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are currently in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing early. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it’s favored in each of its remaining games by at least 72% and has the seventh-best chance in the country (55.4%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma could also help them in the committee meeting room. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though, and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12, then the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at No. 25 Tennessee and have a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for it. That could change on Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State but also recognize the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.
First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (18%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game it’s not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If the Trojans can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, though, the committee would definitely consider them for an at-large spot.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. All three of these teams were ranked by the committee on Tuesday night, but No. 20 Iowa has the shortest climb into the conversation and gets a chance for a marquee win when it hosts No. 9 Oregon on Saturday. Michigan still has a chance to run the table and impress the committee with a win against its No. 1 team, Ohio State, but the head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking. If USC loses again, though, and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, then they’re going to need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday but lose to it in the Big 12 championship game, they would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. They would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as they end the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
First team out: Utah. The No. 13 Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.2%) but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but it might have a hard time earning an at-large bid without being able to beat at least one of the best teams in its league. If there is some movement above the Utes, though, they could quickly earn a promotion given their place on the bubble after the first ranking.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati. They’re included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. The unranked Bearcats have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Virginia
Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss compared with the Yellow Jackets’ double-digit defeat. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season and their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.
First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4 but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above it lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly on Tuesday, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and these teams are all still technically in contention to play for the ACC title. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (66.6%), followed by Georgia Tech (41.3%) and Louisville (33.8%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami has only a 2.7% chance to reach the championship game — also behind Duke and SMU.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The selection committee’s decision to render the head-to-head loss to Miami moot was critical for both teams. The group rewarded Notre Dame for its eye test and recent surge during a six-game winning streak. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (64.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers are playing well, have won five straight and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. Notre Dame’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and the Irish are 10-2.
Group of 5
Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Memphis wasn’t ranked in the committee’s top 25, but the group continues to rank teams until a Group of 5 team is included and then publicizes which one it is without revealing the full ranking and which teams might have been ahead. The Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on the Tigers’ résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: USF, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider USF’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the first committee ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Texas Tech
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oregon/No. 8 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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