‘The projections get more stark’: Scientists warn of 10 million deaths, rise in infectious diseases and even armed conflict due to climate change
Ten million people are “likely to die” due to extreme temperatures if world leaders fail to agree significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, a report has warned.
Agricultural output could also drop by 30% by 2050 – even as the amount of food needed by growing populations is predicted to rise by 50%, according to international affairs think tank Chatham House.
The report produced for governments ahead of COP26, the UN climate meeting in Glasgow this November, said severe impacts of climate change will be “locked in” from 2040 unless greenhouse gas emissions “drastically” decline before 2030.
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How to prepare for extreme weather
Corn crops are especially likely to suffer, with the think tank predicting at least a 10% drop in yields in the US, China, Brazil and Argentina, where most crops are grown.
More than 400m people would be “unable to work outside” by the 2030s, with 10m deaths predicted due to “heat stress”, the report said.
By 2040, researchers said almost 700m people each year would probably be exposed to severe droughts lasting at least six months – and by 2050, more than 70% of people in every region of the world would probably experience heatwaves.
The amount of flooding would surge by the turn of the next century, with the study’s authors warning nearly 200m people worldwide would probably be living below the 100-year flood level – the level at which water begins to overflow into the surrounding area.
Almost 60m people would likely be affected by river flooding due to the rise in the relative sea level, the report said.
The authors said the probability of flood events that currently happen once every 100 years increases with just a one-metre rise in the relative sea level, jumping by 40 times for Shanghai, 200 times for New York and 1000 times for Kolkata.
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Is UK prepared for extreme weather?
They said the current pace of global decarbonisation efforts mean the world is on track for at least 2.7C in warming by the end of the century – well above the 1.5C target.
The report noted that new proposals by some governments to further cut emissions fall far short of what is required to meet the target, while several major economies are yet to commit to any further emission reduction goals.
At COP21 in Paris in 2015, countries agreed to try to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels to curb the climate crisis.
Dr Daniel Quiggin, a senior research fellow at Chatham House who co-authored the report, said: “There remains a real opportunity yet a closing window for greatly increased ambition from all governments to prevent the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.”
He added that there is also “the increasing possibility that climate-related events trigger a sequence of connected incidents across regions and sectors which cause trade disruption, political instability, increased migration, an increase in infectious diseases or even armed conflict”.
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Jamie Peters, director of campaigning at Friends of the Earth, called the report “horrifying” but said he does not think it is possible to be “too late” to respond to climate change.
“Every point of a degree is a question of lives,” he told Sky News.
He urged the UK government to “get its act together” and drop its support for all fossil fuel projects – like airport expansions, coal mines and gas projects.
He said doing this would give Britain the legitimacy needed to demand action from other countries.
The speed of climate change has shocked many people in the past,” he said. “The science has been clear and the projections get more and more stark.”
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On today’s show, we report from Gabon where more money is needed to help preserve its rainforests.
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World
Arrest warrants issued for Israeli PM Netanyahu and former defence secretary Gallant over alleged war crimes
Arrest warrants have been issued for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence secretary Yoav Gallant by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The warrants are for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity related to the war in Gaza that Israel launched following the 7 October attacks by Hamas.
The prime minister’s office said the warrants against him and Gallant were “anti-semitic” and said Israel “rejects with disgust the absurd and false actions”.
Another warrant was issued for the arrest of Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al Masri for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Al Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, was the mastermind behind the 7 October attacks.
It is unclear if he is still alive, following an airstrike that Israel claimed killed him earlier this year.
Neither Israel nor the US are members of the ICC. Israel has rejected the court’s jurisdiction and denies committing war crimes in Gaza.
Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett said the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were a “mark of shame” for the ICC.
The court originally said it was seeking arrest warrants for the three men in May for the alleged crimes and today announced that it had rejected challenges by Israel and issued warrants of arrest.
The new UK Labour government said in the summer it would not oppose the ICC’s right to issue the warrants.
Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the UN general assembly. Pic: Reuters
Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant
In its update, the ICC said it found “reasonable grounds to believe” that Netanyahu and Gallant “bear criminal responsibility” for alleged crimes.
These, the court said, include “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts”.
Netanyahu previously spoke of his “disgust” at the suggestion the ICC would seek an arrest warrant for him.
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A video released by Hamas in 2005 shows a man identified as Mohammed Deif. Pic: AP
Warrant for Hamas leader
The ICC also said it has issued an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Al Masri, saying it has “reasonable grounds to believe” that he is responsible for crimes against humanity including murder, extermination, torture, rape, as well as war crimes including taking hostages.
Discussing the 7 October attacks, the court said: “In light of the coordinated killings of members of civilians at several separate locations, the Chamber also found that the conduct took place as part of a mass killing of members of the civilian population, and it therefore concluded that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the crime against humanity of extermination was committed.”
In its statement, the ICC said the prosecution was not in a position to determine whether Al Masri is dead or alive, so was issuing the arrest warrant.
The court previously said it was seeking an arrest warrant for Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas who was subsequently killed in July.
Four people have died and a number of others are in hospital after allegedly being served drinks laced with methanol.
According to reports, six British travellers are among those being treated in Laos, after falling ill last week.
Two Danish women in their 20s and a 56-year-old US citizen are reported to have died in what authorities fear was a mass poisoning.
On Thursday, it was confirmed an Australian woman – named as Bianca Jones, 19, from Melbourne – had become the fourth person to die.
Holly Bowles Pic: Facebook
Her friend Holly Bowles is being treated in hospital after calling for medical help at their accommodation, Nana’s Backpackers Hostel.
In a statement given to the Herald Sun, Ms Jones’s family said: “It is with the heaviest of hearts that we share the news that our beloved daughter and sister, Bianca Jones, has passed away.
“She was surrounded by love, and we are comforted by the knowledge that her incredible spirit touched so many lives during her time with us.
“We want to express our deepest gratitude for the overwhelming support, love, and prayers we’ve received from across Australia.”
Simone White Pic: Squire Patton Boggs
One of the British travellers being treated in hospital has been named as Simone White, 28, from Orpington, Kent.
According to The Times newspaper, she became ill last week in Vang Vieng – a resort popular with backpackers.
Ms White’s friend, Bethany Clarke, a healthcare worker also from Orpington, posted on a Laos Backpacking Facebook group to warn other travellers.
“Urgent – please avoid all local spirits. Our group stayed in Vang Vieng and we drank free shots offered by one of the bars,” she wrote.
“Just avoid them as so not worth it. Six of us who drank from the same place are in hospital currently with methanol poisoning.”
New Zealand’s Foreign Ministry also confirmed one of its citizens was also unwell in Laos and could be a victim of methanol poisoning.
Ukraine has fired British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles into Russia, a source has told Sky News.
The UK and Ukraine have not yet confirmed the use of the long-range weapons in Russia but their deployment has been widely reported in British media.
Footage has been posted on Telegram reportedly showing wreckage from one of the missiles in Russia’s Kursk region, which borders Ukraine.
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What are Storm Shadow missiles?
Ukraine war: Follow latest updates
The UK had previously said that British tanks, anti-tank missiles and other military equipment could be used inside Russia as part of Ukraine’s defence – but had kept restrictions on the use of long-range missiles.
It comes just days after US President Joe Biden authorised the same policy shift.
Russia’s defence ministry said on Tuesday that Ukraine had fired six US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) in the Bryansk region.
A Russian state news agency cited the ministry as saying the missiles caused no casualties.
The missile is also called SCALP by French forces. File pic: AP
Missiles will have a ‘marginal effect’
Sky News’ security and defence editor Deborah Haynes says Ukraine’s allies have been pursuing a strategy of ambiguity and “it remains to be seen whether we get official confirmation on this from the UK or from Ukraine”.
“There is also the uncomfortable reality that Ukraine’s stockpile of Storm Shadow missiles is severely limited, so their use will only have a marginal effect.”
Meanwhile, Sky’s military analyst Sean Bell says he would be amazed if this attack really marks the first time such a missile has been used by Ukraine to hit inside Russia.
“I would be quite surprised if they haven’t been used for selected targets further on [into Russia] because they are… very, very effective at striking Russian logistics hubs, headquarters, ammunition dumps,” he said.
British forces used Storm Shadows in the Iraq war in 2003. File pic: Reuters
The same missiles are also used by French forces, using the alternative name SCALP, and are made by the Anglo-French arms manufacturer, MBDA.
Embassies shut over air attack fears
Earlier, the US and some other Western embassies in Kyiv closed amid fears Russia was preparing a major air attack on the Ukrainian capital.
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Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had been asking Kyiv’s allies to give his troops the capability to strike deeper behind Russian lines for over a year.
Mr Biden’s change of policy is linked to changing tactics by the Russians, which began deploying North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces.
The White House is set to announce more military aid for Ukraine worth up to $275m (£217m), the US defence secretary has said.
Lloyd Austin said the support would “meet critical battlefield needs” and would include munitions for rocket systems, artillery and tank weapons, along with anti-personnel landmines.
Russian politician Maria Butina and Donald Trump Jr, the son of US President-elect Donald Trump, both warned that Mr Biden’s decision over Ukraine’s usage of long-range missiles could spark the start of a third world war.
Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold required for the use of nuclear weapons after the US move, adding to fears the conflict could escalate.
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