‘The projections get more stark’: Scientists warn of 10 million deaths, rise in infectious diseases and even armed conflict due to climate change
Ten million people are “likely to die” due to extreme temperatures if world leaders fail to agree significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, a report has warned.
Agricultural output could also drop by 30% by 2050 – even as the amount of food needed by growing populations is predicted to rise by 50%, according to international affairs think tank Chatham House.
The report produced for governments ahead of COP26, the UN climate meeting in Glasgow this November, said severe impacts of climate change will be “locked in” from 2040 unless greenhouse gas emissions “drastically” decline before 2030.
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How to prepare for extreme weather
Corn crops are especially likely to suffer, with the think tank predicting at least a 10% drop in yields in the US, China, Brazil and Argentina, where most crops are grown.
More than 400m people would be “unable to work outside” by the 2030s, with 10m deaths predicted due to “heat stress”, the report said.
By 2040, researchers said almost 700m people each year would probably be exposed to severe droughts lasting at least six months – and by 2050, more than 70% of people in every region of the world would probably experience heatwaves.
The amount of flooding would surge by the turn of the next century, with the study’s authors warning nearly 200m people worldwide would probably be living below the 100-year flood level – the level at which water begins to overflow into the surrounding area.
Almost 60m people would likely be affected by river flooding due to the rise in the relative sea level, the report said.
The authors said the probability of flood events that currently happen once every 100 years increases with just a one-metre rise in the relative sea level, jumping by 40 times for Shanghai, 200 times for New York and 1000 times for Kolkata.
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Is UK prepared for extreme weather?
They said the current pace of global decarbonisation efforts mean the world is on track for at least 2.7C in warming by the end of the century – well above the 1.5C target.
The report noted that new proposals by some governments to further cut emissions fall far short of what is required to meet the target, while several major economies are yet to commit to any further emission reduction goals.
At COP21 in Paris in 2015, countries agreed to try to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels to curb the climate crisis.
Dr Daniel Quiggin, a senior research fellow at Chatham House who co-authored the report, said: “There remains a real opportunity yet a closing window for greatly increased ambition from all governments to prevent the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.”
He added that there is also “the increasing possibility that climate-related events trigger a sequence of connected incidents across regions and sectors which cause trade disruption, political instability, increased migration, an increase in infectious diseases or even armed conflict”.
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Jamie Peters, director of campaigning at Friends of the Earth, called the report “horrifying” but said he does not think it is possible to be “too late” to respond to climate change.
“Every point of a degree is a question of lives,” he told Sky News.
He urged the UK government to “get its act together” and drop its support for all fossil fuel projects – like airport expansions, coal mines and gas projects.
He said doing this would give Britain the legitimacy needed to demand action from other countries.
The speed of climate change has shocked many people in the past,” he said. “The science has been clear and the projections get more and more stark.”
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On today’s show, we report from Gabon where more money is needed to help preserve its rainforests.
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Israel pounded the outskirts of Gaza City overnight, as Benjamin Netanyahu’s government vowed to press on with a planned offensive on the city.
Families streamed out of the city as the explosions hit.
“I stopped counting the times I had to take my wife and three daughters and leave my home in Gaza City,” said Mohammad, 40.
“No place is safe, but I can’t take the risk. If they suddenly begin the invasion, they will use heavy fire.”
Mahmoud Abedrabo mourns over the body of his son Hamada in Gaza City on 24 August. Pic: Reuters
Others said they would prefer to die and not leave.
“We are not leaving, let them bomb us at home,” said Aya, 31, who has a family of eight, adding that they couldn’t afford to buy a tent or pay for the transportation.
“We are hungry, afraid and don’t have money,” she said.
Mourners pray next to the body of Palestinian boy Hamada Abedrabo on 24 August. Pic: Reuters
Witnesses said that overnight they heard nonstop explosions in Zeitoun and Shejaia.
Tanks shelled houses and roads in Sabra, and buildings were blown up in Jabalia.
On Sunday, the IDF said its forces had returned to combat in Jabalia to strengthen its control of the area and dismantle militant tunnels.
Smoke rises following an Israeli strike in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters
It added that the operation there “enables the expansion of combat into additional areas and prevents Hamas terrorists from returning to operate in these areas.”
This month, Israel approved a plan to seize control of Gaza City. The offensive isn’t expected to start for another few weeks.
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In the meantime, mediators in Egypt and Qatar are trying to resume ceasefire talks between the two sides.
On Friday, Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said that Gaza City will be razed unless Hamas releases all its remaining hostages and ends the war on Israel’s terms.
Mourners transport the body of Ahmed Balata on 24 August. Pic: Reuters
Around half of Gaza’s two million residents currently live in the city and on Friday a global hunger monitor said that Gaza City and its surrounding areas are officially suffering from famine that will likely spread.
Israel said the monitor ignores steps Israel has taken since late July to increase aid supplies into and across Gaza.
Eight more people died of malnutrition and starvation in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry on Saturday.
281 people, including 114 children, have now died of malnutrition and starvation since the war started, according to the ministry.
The war began on 7 October 2023, when Hamas-led gunmen killed around 1,200 people in southern Israel, mainly civilians, and took 251 hostages.
Since then, Israel has killed at least 62,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza health ministry, and internally displaced nearly its entire population.
Two married couples have died after a British car veered off the road and crashed in Germany, according to police.
The fatal accident happened shortly after midnight on Saturday in the trees near a highway in the Kassel district, north of Hesse in central Germany.
The 32-year-old male driver, a 31-year-old female passenger, a 32-year-old female passenger, and a 30-year-old female passenger all died at the scene, despite the efforts of German emergency services.
Sky News understands UK officials have not been contacted for assistance.
At roughly 12.30am on Saturday, the car appears to have veered off the road and crashed into nearby trees around 30m from the road, according to the Kassel police department.
Pic: Feuerwehr Reinhardshagen
One of the victim’s phones automatically alerted the emergency services to the incident, who sent an ambulance to the scene.
Soon, fire engines, ambulances, command vehicles and emergency support vehicles were all dispatched.
When emergency workers arrived, the car was lying on its side, wedged between several trees.
It wasn’t until they removed the roof that they found all four passengers.
Pic: Feuerwehr Reinhardshagen
The accident happened on Highway L3229
The emergency workers who dealt with the victims were immediately supported by the specialist mental health workers at the fire station in Reinhardshagen.
“This high number of deaths is an extraordinary operation for our Reinhardshagen Volunteer Fire Department,” said a fire department spokesperson.
“For some of the emergency personnel, it is the first time they have been confronted with death in this way.
“Therefore, a great deal is being done to help us process these images. We will also discuss this among ourselves and within families, because not everyone can easily shake off what they have seen.”
An investigation into the accident is ongoing and is being conducted by the Hofgeismar police station.
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