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Ten million people are “likely to die” due to extreme temperatures if world leaders fail to agree significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, a report has warned.

Agricultural output could also drop by 30% by 2050 – even as the amount of food needed by growing populations is predicted to rise by 50%, according to international affairs think tank Chatham House.

The report produced for governments ahead of COP26, the UN climate meeting in Glasgow this November, said severe impacts of climate change will be “locked in” from 2040 unless greenhouse gas emissions “drastically” decline before 2030.

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How to prepare for extreme weather

Corn crops are especially likely to suffer, with the think tank predicting at least a 10% drop in yields in the US, China, Brazil and Argentina, where most crops are grown.

More than 400m people would be “unable to work outside” by the 2030s, with 10m deaths predicted due to “heat stress”, the report said.

By 2040, researchers said almost 700m people each year would probably be exposed to severe droughts lasting at least six months – and by 2050, more than 70% of people in every region of the world would probably experience heatwaves.

The amount of flooding would surge by the turn of the next century, with the study’s authors warning nearly 200m people worldwide would probably be living below the 100-year flood level – the level at which water begins to overflow into the surrounding area.

More on Cop26

Almost 60m people would likely be affected by river flooding due to the rise in the relative sea level, the report said.

The authors said the probability of flood events that currently happen once every 100 years increases with just a one-metre rise in the relative sea level, jumping by 40 times for Shanghai, 200 times for New York and 1000 times for Kolkata.

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Is UK prepared for extreme weather?

They said the current pace of global decarbonisation efforts mean the world is on track for at least 2.7C in warming by the end of the century – well above the 1.5C target.

The report noted that new proposals by some governments to further cut emissions fall far short of what is required to meet the target, while several major economies are yet to commit to any further emission reduction goals.

At COP21 in Paris in 2015, countries agreed to try to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels to curb the climate crisis.

Dr Daniel Quiggin, a senior research fellow at Chatham House who co-authored the report, said: “There remains a real opportunity yet a closing window for greatly increased ambition from all governments to prevent the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.”

He added that there is also “the increasing possibility that climate-related events trigger a sequence of connected incidents across regions and sectors which cause trade disruption, political instability, increased migration, an increase in infectious diseases or even armed conflict”.

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Jamie Peters, director of campaigning at Friends of the Earth, called the report “horrifying” but said he does not think it is possible to be “too late” to respond to climate change.

“Every point of a degree is a question of lives,” he told Sky News.

He urged the UK government to “get its act together” and drop its support for all fossil fuel projects – like airport expansions, coal mines and gas projects.

He said doing this would give Britain the legitimacy needed to demand action from other countries.

The speed of climate change has shocked many people in the past,” he said. “The science has been clear and the projections get more and more stark.”

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On today’s show, we report from Gabon where more money is needed to help preserve its rainforests.

Watch the Daily Climate Show at 6.30pm Monday to Friday on Sky News, the Sky News website and app, on YouTube and Twitter.

The show investigates how global warming is changing our landscape and highlights solutions to the crisis.

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Romania scrambles fighter jets after Russian drone ‘breaches airspace’ – as Zelenskyy warns of war ‘expansion’

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Romania scrambles fighter jets after Russian drone 'breaches airspace' - as Zelenskyy warns of war 'expansion'

Romania has said a drone breached its airspace during a Russian attack on neighbouring Ukraine.

Fighter jets were scrambled on Saturday, coming close to taking down the aircraft as it was flying very low before it left national airspace toward Ukraine, defence minister Ionut Mosteanu said.

Romania is the latest NATO member state to report an incursion, with Poland deploying aircraft and closing an airport in the eastern city of Lublin on Saturday, three days after it shot down Russian drones in its airspace.

They are the first known shots fired by a member of the Western alliance during Russia’s war in Ukraine.

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Russian drones enter Polish airspace: What we know

Meanwhile, military exercises are taking place over the Barents Sea, with Russia and Belarus conducting joint drills.

Russian MiG-31 fighter jets equipped with hypersonic ballistic missiles completed a four-hour flight over the neutral waters as part of ongoing “Zapad 2025” military exercises, the Interfax news agency reported on Saturday.

Romania has had Russian drone fragments fall on to its territory repeatedly since Russia began waging its full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago.

More on Belarus

Two F-16 fighter jets were initially scrambled by Romania, and later two Eurofighters.

Citizens in the southeastern county of Tulcea near the Danube and its Ukrainian border were warned to take cover, the defence ministry said.

The ministry said the drone dropped off their radar 20km (12 miles) southwest of the village of Chilia Veche.

While helicopters were surveying the area looking for possible drone parts, Mr Mosteanu told private television station Antena 3 that “all information at this moment indicates the drone exited airspace to Ukraine”.

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Russia getting ‘ready for war with NATO’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on social media that data showed the drone breached about 10km (six miles) into Romanian territory and operated in NATO airspace for around 50 minutes.

He said Belarusian airspace was also used for entry into Ukraine’s airspace.

Mr Zelenskyy described the reported incursion as “an obvious expansion of the war by Russia,” and called for “tariffs against Russian trade” and a “collective defence”.

He warned: “Do not wait for dozens of “shaheds” [Iranian-designed drones] and ballistic missiles before finally making decisions.”

NATO has said it plans to strengthen eastern flank defence, following earlier Polish airspace violations.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio called the Polish incursion “unacceptable and unfortunate and dangerous”, and said while it was unclear if the drones were intentionally sent to Poland, if it was the case, it would be “a highly escalatory move”.

Experts, including Sky News international affairs editor Dominic Waghorn have previously suggested the Kremlin is testing the West with gradual but steady escalation – a tactic known as “salami slicing”.

Donald Trump boarding Air Force One on Saturday. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump boarding Air Force One on Saturday. Pic: Reuters

On Saturday, Donald Trump said on his Truth Social platform that he was “ready to do major sanctions on Russia”, but only when all NATO nations “do the same thing” and “stop buying oil from Russia”.

Mr Trump has repeatedly threatened sanctions against Moscow, so far without any action.

The president also said NATO members should also put 50% to 100% tariffs on China – and only withdraw them if the conflict ends.

NATO member Turkey has been the third largest buyer of Russian oil since 2023, after China and India, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, with fellow members Hungary and Slovakia also buying energy supplies from Moscow.

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Donald Trump urges NATO countries to stop ‘shocking’ Russian oil purchases to end Ukraine war

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Donald Trump urges NATO countries to stop 'shocking' Russian oil purchases to end Ukraine war

The war in Ukraine would end if all NATO countries stopped buying oil from Russia, Donald Trump has said.

The US president, in a post on his Truth Social platform on Saturday, said the alliance’s commitment to winning the war “has been far less than 100%” and the purchase of Russian oil by some members is “shocking”.

Doing so “greatly weakens your negotiating position and bargaining power, over Russia,” he said.

NATO member Turkey has been the third largest buyer of Russian oil since 2023, after China and India, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, with fellow members Hungary and Slovakia also buying energy supplies from Moscow.

A NATO ban on the practice plus tariffs on China would “also be of great help in ENDING this deadly, but RIDICULOUS, WAR”, he added.

The president said NATO members should also put 50% to 100% tariffs on China – and only withdraw them if the conflict ends.

‘China’s grip’ on Russia

“China has a strong control, and even grip, over Russia,” Mr Trump posted, and powerful tariffs “will break that grip”.

The US president has already placed a 25% import tax on goods from India over its buying of Russian energy products.

Mr Trump said responsibility for the war fell on his predecessor Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

He did not include in that list Russian President Vladimir Putin, who launched the invasion.

President Donald Trump at a New York Yankees baseball game on Thursday. Pic: AP
Image:
President Donald Trump at a New York Yankees baseball game on Thursday. Pic: AP

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

Village changes hands

On the battlefield on Saturday, Russian troops took control of the village of Novomykolaivka in Ukraine’s southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region, the Russian Defence Ministry said.

A drone attack hit an oil refinery in the city of Ufa, around 870 miles (1,400km) from the border with Ukraine, the local governor said, calling it a terrorist incident.

Read more on Sky News:
All we know about Kirk murder suspect
Nepal’s first female PM
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Drones shot down in Poland

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Friday the 32-nation alliance would place military equipment on the border with Belarus, Russia and Ukraine to deter potential Russian aggression.

Operation ‘Eastern Sentry’ followed Wednesday’s provocative incursion by multiple Russian drones into the airspace of Poland, another NATO member.

Polish forces shot down the drones, which Moscow said went astray because they were jammed.

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Prince Harry’s surprise visit to Ukraine

Prince Harry’s surprise visit

The Duke of Sussex made a surprise visit to Ukraine on Friday, promising to do “everything possible” to help the recovery of injured military staff.

Travelling on an overnight train to Kyiv, Prince Harry, who has since left the country, told The Guardian: “We cannot stop the war but what we can do is do everything we can to help the recovery process.

“We have to keep it [the war] in the forefront of people’s minds. I hope this trip will help to bring it home to people because it’s easy to become desensitised to what has been going on.”

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At least 32 people killed as Israel intensifies airstrikes in Gaza City, medical staff say

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At least 32 people killed as Israel intensifies airstrikes in Gaza City, medical staff say

A barrage of airstrikes has killed at least 32 people in Gaza City as Israel continued intensifying its offensive there, medical staff have said.

The dead include 12 children, according to the morgue in Shifa Hospital, where the bodies were brought.

Health officials said one of the strikes killed a family of 10, including a mother and her three children.

The Palestinian Football Association said a player for the Al-Helal Sporting Club, Mohammed Ramez Sultan, was killed with 14 members of his family.

Israel’s army did not immediately respond to questions about the strikes when contacted by the Associated Press news agency.

Israel has in recent days increased its strikes on Gaza City, having ordered residents to leave what it says is Hamas’s last stronghold.

Palestinians run for cover. Pic: AP
Image:
Palestinians run for cover. Pic: AP

Hundreds of thousands of people are still in the city, struggling under conditions of famine, which was declared by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) three weeks ago. Israel previously denied there is a famine in Gaza.

Aid workers say the number of people leaving has spiked in recent weeks, but many families remain stuck due to difficulties with transportation and housing.

Others have been displaced many times and do not want to move again, not trusting that anywhere in the Strip is safe.

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Earlier this month: IDF drops evacuation flyers on Gaza before tower bombed

In a message shared on social media on Saturday, Israel’s army told the remaining Palestinians in Gaza City to “leave immediately” and move south into what it is calling a humanitarian zone.

Sites in southern Gaza, where Israel is telling people to go, are overcrowded, the United Nations has said.

A spokesperson for the Israeli army said more than 250,000 people have left Gaza City – but the UN puts the number at around 100,000 between mid-August and mid-September.

The UN and aid groups have warned that displacing hundreds of thousands of people will exacerbate the dire humanitarian crisis in the enclave.

Read more:
Trump’s ‘heated call’ with Netanyahu
Media groups unite against Israeli attacks

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The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry said on Saturday that seven people, including children, died from malnutrition-related causes over the past 24 hours.

Israel has said it now controls 75% of Gaza, much of which has been reduced to fields of rubble. It has vowed to take the rest.

The current conflict followed Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, when militants killed 1,200 people and took around 250 people hostage.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed at least 64,803 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s health authorities. It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.

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