‘The projections get more stark’: Scientists warn of 10 million deaths, rise in infectious diseases and even armed conflict due to climate change
Ten million people are “likely to die” due to extreme temperatures if world leaders fail to agree significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, a report has warned.
Agricultural output could also drop by 30% by 2050 – even as the amount of food needed by growing populations is predicted to rise by 50%, according to international affairs think tank Chatham House.
The report produced for governments ahead of COP26, the UN climate meeting in Glasgow this November, said severe impacts of climate change will be “locked in” from 2040 unless greenhouse gas emissions “drastically” decline before 2030.
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How to prepare for extreme weather
Corn crops are especially likely to suffer, with the think tank predicting at least a 10% drop in yields in the US, China, Brazil and Argentina, where most crops are grown.
More than 400m people would be “unable to work outside” by the 2030s, with 10m deaths predicted due to “heat stress”, the report said.
By 2040, researchers said almost 700m people each year would probably be exposed to severe droughts lasting at least six months – and by 2050, more than 70% of people in every region of the world would probably experience heatwaves.
The amount of flooding would surge by the turn of the next century, with the study’s authors warning nearly 200m people worldwide would probably be living below the 100-year flood level – the level at which water begins to overflow into the surrounding area.
Almost 60m people would likely be affected by river flooding due to the rise in the relative sea level, the report said.
The authors said the probability of flood events that currently happen once every 100 years increases with just a one-metre rise in the relative sea level, jumping by 40 times for Shanghai, 200 times for New York and 1000 times for Kolkata.
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Is UK prepared for extreme weather?
They said the current pace of global decarbonisation efforts mean the world is on track for at least 2.7C in warming by the end of the century – well above the 1.5C target.
The report noted that new proposals by some governments to further cut emissions fall far short of what is required to meet the target, while several major economies are yet to commit to any further emission reduction goals.
At COP21 in Paris in 2015, countries agreed to try to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels to curb the climate crisis.
Dr Daniel Quiggin, a senior research fellow at Chatham House who co-authored the report, said: “There remains a real opportunity yet a closing window for greatly increased ambition from all governments to prevent the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.”
He added that there is also “the increasing possibility that climate-related events trigger a sequence of connected incidents across regions and sectors which cause trade disruption, political instability, increased migration, an increase in infectious diseases or even armed conflict”.
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Jamie Peters, director of campaigning at Friends of the Earth, called the report “horrifying” but said he does not think it is possible to be “too late” to respond to climate change.
“Every point of a degree is a question of lives,” he told Sky News.
He urged the UK government to “get its act together” and drop its support for all fossil fuel projects – like airport expansions, coal mines and gas projects.
He said doing this would give Britain the legitimacy needed to demand action from other countries.
The speed of climate change has shocked many people in the past,” he said. “The science has been clear and the projections get more and more stark.”
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On today’s show, we report from Gabon where more money is needed to help preserve its rainforests.
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World
Brutal murder on ‘date’ exposes robbery gang suspected of targeting dozens of women in South Africa
Thirty-year-old Olorato Mongale made sure to take all the measures necessary for a safe first date in South Africa’s biggest city, Johannesburg.
She had agreed to meet ‘John’ in the daytime. She sent her friends her phone location after leaving her house and promptly texted them “on the road” at 2.47pm.
They replied “enjoy!”, hoping she would find love.
An hour later, their friend had gone silent and her phone location was showing up in dangerous areas of the city.
A search party of seven friends set off to trace Olorato’s digital footsteps.
It’s believed Olorato’s killers were part of a gang robbing young women at gunpoint
“It didn’t make sense. Where is she? Why is she missing?” says Karabo Mokoena, as we drove to the locations involved in their search.
“Every place we went to looked dodgier and dodgier. It made me panic – I was very scared.”
After finding her bag on a pile of bricks off the side of a main road, they filed a missing person report at a police station.
“I thought there was no way we were not going to find her. We did end up finding her but not in the way we would have hoped,” says Karabo.
Olorato’s body had been dumped at the dirt entrance of a random house less than 100m from where her friends were searching into the night.
Her face was swollen and her eyes black-blue from violent impact. Her top was ripped open to expose her breasts.
Police told Sky News that her post-mortem showed signs of blunt force trauma. She was likely beaten to death.
Olorato’s body was dumped outside this gate – she was likely beaten to death
“It was like I was dreaming, seeing her body like that with those bruises and blood everywhere,” says Olorato’s mother, Keabetswe Poppy Mongale, describing the moment she had to identify her only child at the morgue.
“I don’t think what I saw will ever go away,” she adds.
“It was very painful. I don’t wish that on any parent because my beautiful little girl looked different because someone chose to do that to her.”
Olorato’s mother says the image of her daughter in the morgue will never go away
CCTV from the driveway of Olorato’s building shows the last time she was seen alive, leaving her home to meet ‘John’.
In the video, she walks towards a white Volkswagen Polo and hesitates as she reaches the left back door. John had come with a friend.
Four days after Olorato was killed, police found the car in a different province with traces of her blood splattered across the back seat.
CCTV showed Olorato walking to a car for what she thought was a date
One suspect was shot dead but the second man is still on the run
Philangenkosi Sibongokuhle Makanya – ‘John’ – was shot dead by police in KwaZulu-Natal shortly after they found the vehicle.
The second man in the car, Bongani Mthimkhulu, is still on the run.
The two men have since been identified as part of a dangerous criminal syndicate that lure young women out on dates and rob them at gunpoint.
“Within the four days, the investigating officers received 94 calls from women who were raising concerns and identifying the suspects as those they once met,” South African Police Service deputy national commissioner Lieutenant General Tebello Mosikili told Sky News.
“It was unfortunate about Olorato, but others were released after being robbed.”
Olorato’s friends say she ‘ticked all the boxes when it came to being careful’
A 24-year-old student who survived an armed robbery at the hands of Olorato’s suspected killers says she was happy to see Philangenkosi killed but she’s still scared for her life.
“As women, we are not even safe anymore – we can’t even walk freely,” she says.
“The moment you leave your house you wonder if you will make it back alive. I don’t feel comfortable walking around the street. I leave the house and then turn back.
“Even when I’m home, I still don’t feel safe and always want to keep myself locked indoors,” she says with a shaky voice – choosing to remain anonymous.
After meeting other victims of the syndicate, she was shocked to hear details of almost identical abductions.
“This other girl was surprised because we went through the exact same situation. They also approached her with the same tactic – let me take you out to lunch to get to know you – only for her to be robbed.”
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South Africa has one of the highest femicide rates in the world – an average 15 women are killed a day, many by their intimate partners.
According to police statistics, more than 5,500 women were murdered in South Africa last year. An increase of 33.8% compared with the previous year.
“South Africa has six times the average rate of femicide – hundreds of women have already been killed since Olorato’s murder,” says Cameron Kasambala from Women for Change.
The advocacy group raises awareness of rising cases of femicide and gender-based violence across South Africa.
Campaigner Cameron Kasambala says many femicide cases take a long time to be resolved
In the hours after her murder, Olorato’s friends contacted Women for Change to share her missing poster after receiving little immediate help from the local police station.
“I think her friends were the real heroes in that moment,” says Cameron.
“Two police stations that were 10 minutes apart, one finds a body and one has a missing case, don’t make a connection for hours. It’s not the most reassuring police work. And if the friends had not come forward, how long would it have taken?
“Unfortunately, Olorato’s case is an exception. Most cases are not handled that quickly.”
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Olorato’s friends say she would be ‘proud to know that her name has not gone in vain’
Olorato’s friends are still contending with the violence of her death – what it means for their daily lives and how they navigate their safety as women in South Africa.
“It is difficult to process and difficult to believe. This is somebody who ticked all the boxes when it came to being careful – being meticulous, checking her surroundings and leaving clues,” says Olorato’s friend, Koketso Sejosengoe.
“It shows it can happen to anybody no matter how safe you are. It is happening to the average girl. They are being targeted. These men know what they are doing and who they are looking for.”
“In the purest sense, Olorato wanted women to be safe and wanted women to be protected,” adds Koketso.
“I think she would be very proud to know that her name has not gone in vain and that her death is standing for something – that there will be change that comes with this.”
Major heatwaves across southern Europe have left Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece in sweltering conditions of more than 40C (104F).
Two-thirds of Portugal was on high alert for extreme heat and risk of wildfires on Sunday, with temperatures in Lisbon expected to exceed 42C (107F).
In parts of southern Spain, temperatures are well above average, with 42C also expected in Seville and other cities.
The country’s meteorological service says June is likely to be the hottest Spain has experienced since records began.
In several Italian regions, including Lazio, Tuscany, Calabria, Puglia, and Umbria, outdoor work was banned during peak hours of sun on Sunday, with trade unions pushing for the measures to be extended and rolled out nationwide.
Twenty-one out of 27 cities were under the highest possible heat alert, including Rome, Milan, and Naples.
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Greece has already been plagued by wildfires this summer, with one breaking out south of Athens on Thursday, and several on the island of Chios last Sunday.
Near Athens, authorities deployed 130 firefighters, 12 helicopters, and 12 planes, with 40 people evacuated from the highest-risk areas.
A woman was arrested on suspicion of unintentional arson after wildfires spread across brush and pastureland for three days on Chios.
Flames rise above Thymari, near Athens, after wildfires broke out on Friday. Pic: Reuters
Tourists battle scorching temperatures at the Parthenon in Greece on Friday. Pic: Reuters
Scientists link increasing frequencies of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, wildfires, and storms to climate change.
In France and Germany, at least three people died amid stormy conditions.
A ridge of high pressure above central and western Europe is driving the scorching conditions, says Sky News meteorologist Chris England.
Hotter-than-normal sea temperatures, dry land, and surface winds are also partly to blame, he added.
Tourists in Retiro Park in Madrid on Saturday. Pic: AP
Locals fan themselves in Lisbon on Saturday. Pic: AP
UK heatwave also likely
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UK heatwaves explained
The UK is halfway through a four-day amber heat health alert, with temperatures expected to peak in the mid-30s (86F) on Tuesday.
Heat health alerts are not public weather warnings – but are instead designed to prepare health and social care bodies for the potential impact on their infrastructure and vulnerable groups.
Heatwave thresholds are likely to be met on Monday and Tuesday, which vary between 28C (82F) in the south of England and 25C (77F) across the rest of the country.
A British-Israeli soldier has been killed while fighting in Gaza, Israeli media reports said.
He was named locally as Sergeant Yisrael Natan Rosenfeld, 20, from the city of Ra’anana.
The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said it is “looking into reports that an IDF soldier who died in combat in Gaza is a British national”.
The IDF soldier, who served in the 601st Combat Engineering Battalion, was killed by an explosive device on Sunday, the Times of Israel reported.
The paper said Mr Rosenfeld moved to Israel from London with his family 11 years ago.
More than 860 Israeli soldiers have been killed since Israel’s war against Hamas began on 7 October 2023, more than 400 of them during the fighting in Gaza.
The war began when the militant group launched an attack on Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostage.
Israel’s offensive in Gaza has devastated the enclave and killed more than 56,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants in its count, but says more than half of the dead are women and children.
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It came as Donald Trump called for progress in ceasefire talks in the war between Israel and Hamas.
“MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA. GET THE HOSTAGES BACK!!!” the US president wrote on social media on Sunday.
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On Friday Mr Trump raised expectations by claiming there could be an agreement within the next week.
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