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In the first part of this series, I projected and explained the plummeting hydrogen demand from petroleum refining and fertilizer, the biggest sources of demand today, through 2100. In the second part, I explored the flat demand segments, and the single source of significant demand increase I see for hydrogen in the next 20 years. In this final assessment, I look at the great but false hopes for a hydrogen economy: transportation, long-term storage, and heat.

Hydrogen demand through 2100 by author

Hydrogen demand through 2100, by author.

Transportation — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons H2

This is one of the great hopes of the current fossil fuel industry, and a couple of car companies which have managed to capture their governments in Korea and Japan. However, there’s no significant place for hydrogen or synthetic fuels made from it in ground transportation. Electrification is simply too easy, prevalent, cheap, and effective. Hydrogen can’t compete outside of tiny niches like vintage vehicles. For short- and medium-haul aviation, and short- and medium-haul water freight shipping, the clear path is battery electric as well.

That only leaves long-haul shipping and long-haul aviation as areas where hydrogen might have a play. Mark Z. Jacobson and I discussed this on CleanTech Talk a year and a half ago. His perspective was that in order to get to a zero-carbon world, hydrogen would have to be used for long-haul shipping and aviation.

His perspective on shipping was that we needed to eliminate black carbon, with its 100-year global warming potential of 1,055–2,240. Subsequently, I spent a couple of hours talking with Hadi Akbari, a PhD of mechanical engineering who has spent the last several years of his fascinating career spanning two continents building scrubbers for heavy marine vessels. Just as particulates are scrubbed from coal plant emissions, they can be scrubbed from marine emissions, and so biofuels with their lower black carbon emissions will be fit for purpose in my opinion. (Note: this is my opinion after talking with Hadi and researching further, not Hadi’s expressed opinion.) Biofuels use nature to do most of the heavy lifting and have advanced substantially over the past decade. There is no value in using them in ground transportation, they no longer consume food sources and there is little real concern about them competing with agriculture, although there is a lot of expressed concern nonetheless.

On aviation, Jacobson rightly points out that we have to solve emissions, but it’s a hard problem, with CO2 emissions, nitrous oxide emissions (anything burned in our atmosphere combines the nitrogen and oxygen into nitrous oxides), and the water vapor which creates contrails. In discussion with Paul Martin, it’s clear that both hydrogen storage and fuel cells would have to be in the fuselage, leaving a lot less room for passengers and luggage or making the fuselage bigger with attendant efficiency losses, and creating a heavy burden of excess heat from the fuel cells that makes them deeply unlikely. In his perspective, hydrogen would be burned directly in jet engines in this model, and that wouldn’t eliminate nitrous oxides or water vapor hence contrails.

Once again, low-carbon biofuels are likely to be the solution here. Certified versions have existed since 2011, after all, while there are exactly zero certified hydrogen drive train planes in the world. And contrails require fairly minimal operational changes, as a regular CleanTechnica reader who holds my feet the fire pointed out (and thank you for doing so, Hazel). Those operational changes still have to be mandated for the airlines, but it’s not as significant a problem as I had originally assumed.

Biofuels are enhanced with some hydrogen in some cases, and there are always going to be edge cases where hydrogen persists, but my projection for all modes of transportation including biofuel use is still only an increase from effectively 0 tons today to a million tons a year by 2100.

Long-term storage — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons

Hydrogen is also projected as a solution for the dunkelflaute, long dreary periods when there is little wind or sunshine. However, it only makes into the also-ran categories of my projections for grid storage, not into the three major technologies.

Projection of grid storage capacity through 2060 by major categories by author

Even there, it’s not going to be a big player in the also ran category, fighting for scraps with all the other contenders a long way back in the pack. Some of the reasons are the same as always. It’s ineffective, it’s inefficient and it will be vastly more expensive. But more than that, the need just isn’t there unless you assume a whole bunch of other solutions aren’t already occurring.

High-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission has been around since the 1950s, but in 2012 they finally solved a major technical inhibitor to its wide scale use. Despite the presence of multiple grids on continents already sharing electricity with HVDC asynchronous connections between high-voltage alternative current (HVAC) synchronized grids, despite massive HVDC construction projects under way, planned and proposed, despite electricity already being transmitted long-distances today with much more lossy HVAC, many people seem to think that electricity won’t be transmitted from renewables between opposing ends of continents and even across continents.

Electricity already flows from Africa to Europe across the Bosphorus Strait. Expanding that with big HVDC pipes from solar installations and wind farms in northern Africa is trivial, just as getting more HVDC pipes to ease the logjam from North Sea offshore wind into the population centers of Europe is straightforward and being constructed.

Renewables are cheap to build, and just as with every other form of electrical generation except nuclear, will be overbuilt and run under capacity part of the year.

Demand management strategies vs V2g projection

Demand management strategies vs V2g projection by author

And the emergence of massive electrification increases the ability to do demand management at much larger scales.

The assumption of the need for long-term storage assumes narrow geographical boundaries, an archaic concept of energy independence in a world of global trade, and actively hostile neighbors. Liebreich and I have started this conversation online, with his opening salvo being a question of whether Japan would ever accept the proposed HVDC links with China, to which I respond now that China is already 20% of Japan’s annual trade, so why is electricity different?

Germany will likely be the one outlier in this space. They have underground salt deposits that they can turn into caverns, they have a weird love affair with hydrogen too, and dunkelflaute being a German word isn’t a coincidence. If anybody builds significant hydrogen storage, it will probably be them.

As a result, my projection for global demand for hydrogen for electricity storage rises from effectively zero tons today to a million tons in 2100. Someone will waste the money, but very few.

Heating — 0 tons rising to … 0 (zero) tons

And finally, heating, the beloved hope of natural gas utilities globally, all of whom are lobbying hard to convince governments to let them ship hydrogen into homes and buildings to replace natural gas, and to allow them to inject tiny amounts of hydrogen into existing natural gas lines to produce close to zero emissions reductions.

There are no certified hydrogen home furnaces or stoves today. The existing natural gas distribution network would have to be completely replaced to handle hydrogen. Current challenges with leaking natural gas would be multiplied vastly by leaking hydrogen due to the tiny size of the molecule. SGN in Scotland is trying to retrofit 300 homes in Fife with hydrogen appliances for free, one of the many efforts going on around the world by utilities whose life is rapidly ending.

No, what will happen is that all of that natural gas distribution infrastructure will be shoved into electrical minimills to create steel for useful things, and the world will convert to heat pumps and induction stoves.

My projection for global demand for hydrogen for heating is effectively zero tons today, and remaining at so far under a million tons through 2100 that it rounds down to zero.

And so, that’s the projection. It’s flawed, of course, but not fatally in my opinion. It’s my first iteration of the projection, and it’s withstood me writing 4,000 words over three articles explaining it, so there’s that. But as with my projections on grid storage and vehicle-to-grid, I offer it to create a useful discussion about what the world will become, and welcome challenges to it.

Hydrogen demand today is two-thirds for petroleum refining and fertilizer manufacturing. Both of those uses are going to drop precipitously in the coming decades. The one growth area, steel, will not replace them, in my opinion. Green hydrogen only has to replace the useful two-thirds of hydrogen demand seen today, and grow to 75% of 2021 demand by 2100 to fulfill all needs.

 

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Greenworks 80V Venture all-terrain e-bike at new $1,425 low, EGO dual-port mower bundle $550 low, Hiboy, EcoFlow flash sale, more

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May 12, 2025

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Greenworks 80V Venture all-terrain e-bike at new ,425 low, EGO dual-port mower bundle 0 low, Hiboy, EcoFlow flash sale, more

Where we ended last week with a lead Greenworks deal, we’re kickstarting this week’s Green Deals in a similar fashion. We spotted Greenworks’ 80V Venture 20-inch All-Terrain Utility e-bike on its own dropping to a new $1,425 low, with an option to bundle it from Best Buy with a battery and charger for $1,650. Next, EGO’s 56V 21-inch Cordless Electric Dual-Port Self-Propelled Lawn Mower is coming along with two 5.0Ah batteries at a new $550 low. We also have four e-bikes from Hiboy seeing solid discounts, led by the starter-friendly EX6 Step-Thru Fat Tire e-bike for $900. Lastly, we have EcoFlow’s latest 24-hour flash sale on a DELTA Pro Power Station bundle with a transfer switch for $1,999, or its Smart Home Panel 2 at $1,399. Plus, all the other hangover Green Deals from last week are in the links at the bottom of the page, collected together in our Electrified Weekly roundup, including the preorder bundles on Lectric’s new XP4 e-bikes.

Head below for other New Green Deals we’ve found today and, of course, Electrek’s best EV buying and leasing deals. Also, check out the new Electrek Tesla Shop for the best deals on Tesla accessories.

Pair your existing batteries with Greenworks’ 80V Venture 20-inch all-terrain utility e-bike at new $1,425 low

Amazon is dropping the price lower than ever on the brand’s 80V Venture 20-inch All-Terrain Fat Tire Utility e-bike (EV only) to $1,424.99 shipped. Priced at $2,100 direct from Greenworks, it carries a lower $1,900 tag at Amazon, where it rarely sees discounts compared to its commuter and mountain bike counterparts. Of the price cuts we have seen, things have only really been brought down between $1,600 to $1,700, with today’s deal giving you a greater $475 in total savings off its going rate at Amazon and $675 off Greenworks’ direct pricing, where a 60V counterpart is currently seeing no discounts – marking a new all-time low. You can also find it at Best Buy coming with a battery and charger for $1,649.99 shipped, which is the only bundle option available among the three retailers.

One of the three e-bikes from Greenworks’ e-transportation lineup, the Venture Utility model comes as an all-terrain means to get around, whether that’s via paved streets or dirt trails. It comes equipped with a 750W brushless rear hub motor that can hit 20 MPH top speeds and can utilize any of your 80V batteries you own for the ecosystem’s tools. When we have seen it with an included battery, it’s been an 80V 4.0Ah model that affords up to 22 miles of travel with its three PAS levels on a single charge of up to 60 minutes.

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The 26-inch by 4-inch Kenda fat tires provide solid traction for on and off-road riding, with a 7-speed Shimano derailleur, dual mechanical disc brakes, an LED headlight, an IPX4 water-resistance rating against light rain, and a digital LCD display. Along with the real-time performance data the display provides, you’ll also be able to connect via Bluetooth for personalization of its settings and tracking your journeys around town.

EGO 56V 21-inch cordless electric dual-port lawn mower

Get more power for longer jobs with EGO’s 56V 21-inch cordless dual-port mower with two 5.0Ah batteries at new $550 low

Amazon is offering the EGO POWER+ 56V 21-inch Cordless Electric Dual-Port Self-Propelled Lawn Mower with two 5.0Ah batteries at $549.99 shipped. Carrying a $799 price tag, in 2025 we’ve mainly seen it bouncing between $743 and $647 after it went as low as $591 during Christmas sales. Today’s deal is bringing costs down even further, as this 31% markdown cuts $250 off the tag for a new all-time low price, beating our previous mention by $57.

Much like the brand’s cordless electric pressure washer, this EGO mower merges a brushless motor with the brand’s PeakPower system for more power and longer-lasting runtimes. This design provides you with two slots to utilize the included 5.0Ah batteries simultaneously for up to 80 minutes of continuous use. There are six positions of cutting height levels available here, from 1.5 inches to 4 inches, as well as a variable speed control and 3-in-1 functionality for rear bagging, side discharging, and/or mulching. You’ll be able to tackle lawn duties at lower light levels thanks to the LED headlights, with the whole thing sporting a weather-resistant construction for times you may be suddenly interrupted by rain and need to get it out of the elements.

Hiboy EX6 Step-Thru Fat Tire e-bike

Cruise up to 75 miles on Hiboy’s ergonomic EX6 step-thru e-bike at $900

Hiboy currently has four e-bikes at discounted rates, with the brand’s popular EX6 Step-Thru Fat Tire e-bike down at $899.98 shipped. While this EV carries a $1,580 MSRP on its tag, we more regularly see it discounted down at or below $1,000, including Amazon and Best Buy – the latter of which is currently matching this sale’s price. While we have seen it go as low as $800 in the past, you’re still looking at the third-lowest price we have tracked, which gives you $100 off its usually discounted rate and $680 off its MSRP.

A great starter model for new riders, as well as a more budget-friendly option for folks looking for some serious commuting power, Hiboy’s EX6 e-bike provides up to 25 MPH top speeds and up to 75 miles of travel on a single charge, depending on your riding conditions. The 500W brushless geared hub motor is paired with a removable 48V waterproof battery to achieve this performance, with three pedal assistance modes optimizing its power output for the higher end of its travel range. There is also a standard bicycle mode for the usual cardio, as well as a throttle to go pure electric when you don’t want to pedal, though keep in mind this reduces the mileage.

It’s been designed to be more ergonomically comfortable for those longer ventures around town, especially if you’re using it to get some cardio in. There’s some other solid features like the 7-speed Shimano derailleur, a hydraulic suspension fork, 20-inch all-terrain fat tires, fenders, dual disc brakes, a bright headlight, a rear cargo rack, an IPX4 splash/waterproof rating, and an LCD display.

Hiboy’s other current e-bike deals:

EcoFlow DELTA Pro power station with transfer switch

Pick up EcoFlow’s DELTA Pro with a transfer switch or the Smart Home Panel 2 starting from $1,399 (Today only)

As part of its ongoing second phase of Spring-to-Summer savings, EcoFlow has launched the next of its 24-hour flash deals, with two offers running through midnight PDT. The first of these offers bundles the brand’s DELTA Pro Portable Power Station with a transfer switch for $1,999 shipped. This home backup combo normally goes for $4,098 at full price, with the few discounts we’ve seen, mostly in the form of past flash offers, have taken the price down to $2,099 at most, which is where Amazon currently has it priced at. We’re getting an even better deal while the savings last here though, totaling $2,099 that goes back in your pocket for a new all-time low.

One of the brand’s tried and true expansive backup power solutions, the EcoFlow DELTA Pro comes ready to support you through trips and emergencies with a 3,600Wh LiFePO4 capacity that can be added to with the dedicated smart extra batteries and additional power stations to bump things all the way to 25kWh. It covers appliance needs with up to 3,600W of steady output power, which can surge up to 7,200W for hungrier devices, provided through its 14 port options: five AC ports, four USB-A ports, two USB-C ports, two DC ports, and a car port.

Plugging the station into a wall outlet can have you back to a full battery in 1.8 hours, while connecting up to its max 1,600W of solar input with ideal sunny conditions can do the same in 2.8 hours. You’ll get the usual array of remote smart controls through its app, and the included transfer switch in this bundle allows for support of your home or RV, coming pre-wired for an easier time installing it. When utilizing it for your home, you’ll have selective backup over your indoor circuit breaker, which you can learn more about here.

The second of these flash offers is taking the brand’s Smart Home Panel 2 and dropping it down to $1,399 shipped from its full $1,899 tag, returning it to the second-lowest price we have tracked and also matching over at Amazon. The successor to the brand’s transfer switch is a whole-home hub option for folks with the brand’s DELTA Pro Ultra or DELTA Pro 3 power station setups that gives you smarter management control over multiple sources, including any solar roof panels and/or gas generators.

Be sure to check out the full lineup of EcoFlow’s Spring-to-Summer deals while they’re still around through May 18, complete with bonus sitewide savings and longer-running discounts on its newest WAVE 3 portable AC/heater.

Best Spring EV deals!

Best new Green Deals landing this week

The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.

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I bought a $390 electric bicycle directly from China. Here’s what showed up

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May 12, 2025

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I bought a 0 electric bicycle directly from China. Here's what showed up

Some of my regular readers may remember that I backed a risky-looking Indiegogo campaign for an ultra-low-cost electric bicycle that sounded almost too good to be true. I clearly advised readers against it, but I figured it might still be interesting to take on the risk myself to see what would happen.

This is the culmination of that story.

Now to be fair, I’m no beginner when it comes to buying weird EVs sight unseen directly from China. I’m the guy who imported that white electric mini pickup truck that went super viral several years ago (and the truck is still going strong!), not to mention Chinese electric boats and other fun things I’ve brought in.

And so when I saw an Indiegogo campaign for a super weird-looking electric bike called the Mihogo Mini, I knew I had to have one. With a starting price of $390, it sounded too good to be true, but that has rarely stopped me before.

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When this story last left off, I had thrown down the cash and started my waiting game. Despite the promise of delivery a mere two months later, it actually took around eight months, but a bike box did eventually arrive in my family’s driveway. And to answer the question many of you are wondering, yes, this was pre-tariff insanity, back when a $390 e-bike only cost $390 instead of $899.

If you want to see my full unboxing and testing of the bike, check out my fun video here, which includes a super catchy riding song à la the Simpson’s “Canyanero”.

As promised, my tiny e-bike emerged in all its glory from that small bike box! It wasn’t big or powerful, but it was still pretty awesome. The little thing immediately got up to around 20 mph (32 km/h) despite its modest 350W rear hub motor. The 48V 16Ah battery is even surprisingly large at 768 Wh of capacity! These figures might not sound mindblowing, but for a cheap and diminutive e-bike, they’re downright impressive.

The front suspension fork might be tiny with what appears to be around an inch (25 mm) of travel, but it still counts as suspension. And the 12″ tires, each wrapped in an equally tiny fender, add a smidge more cushion to the ride.

For such a small and inexpensive e-bike, you may be surprised to see that it comes with a fairly detailed color LCD screen that can project turn-by-turn navigation arrows from your phone, a folding handlebar stem, and even front & rear LED lighting. It’s also IP65 rated, meaning you can get it splashed without worrying about instantly shorting out the electronics.

But the coolest feature of all, at least in my opinion, is the wishbone-style frame that creates a hollow cavity in the middle to fit a storage bag (included with the bike). While riding around, you can reach down into your mid-trunk and fish out a water bottle, your phone, or a bag of snacks to keep you going strong.

At just $390, of course there are several sacrifices to be made here. The saddle is pretty far from what most would consider to resemble any form of ‘comfort’, and the small wheels paired with the single-speed drivetrain means that pedaling at above 10-12 mph (16-20 km/h) doesn’t add much more speed. You’re almost entirely reliant on using the hand throttle to go any faster.

Despite its small size, it’s also a bit chunky at 41 lb (19 kg), meaning you’re not going to want to carry it up too many flights of stairs by yourself.

The bike is also quite compact and thus it probably wouldn’t fit someone over 5’10” (178 cm). I’m 5’7″ (170 cm) and it felt ok to me, but it’s obviously built with a domestic Chinese audience in mind, not taller Westerners. They claim it will fit riders up to 6’4″ (195 cm), but only so much as those circus bears technically fit on those tricycles.

For $390 though, it is hard for me to complain about it too much. You even get disc brakes and five color options, which is around three more color options than a lot of big-name e-bike brands in the US!

Don’t risk it like I did

Please don’t do what I did – there are plenty of Indiegogo campaigns that have ended badly, with folks never getting the e-bike or e-scooter they ordered. I went into this accepting that I was taking a big risk and knowing full well that I’d have to be ok with getting screwed over. I figured if a bike arrived, I’d get a nice video and article out of it. And if a bike didn’t, perhaps there’d be an article in that, too. But please don’t take this as a blanket endorsement for backing largely unknown e-bike companies in somewhat questionable crowdfunding campaigns.

I’m glad it paid off for me, and I honestly really like the little thing. It’s a shame that they raised the price up to $599 after the campaign ended (and briefly raised it up to $899 after my video came out and they apparently tried to capitalize on all the orders they were suddenly getting). For now it seems to be back to $599 while the company waits to see if they’ll have to raise prices again due to the Trump tariffs.

In the meantime, I’ll keep enjoying my weird little e-bike. Mihogo, Mihogo!

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GM hires Tesla’s former head of Autopilot and Aurora co-founder

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May 12, 2025

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GM hires Tesla's former head of Autopilot and Aurora co-founder

GM announced that it has hired Sterling Anderson, who is known for being the early head of Tesla Autopilot and co-founder of self-driving startup Aurora.

Anderson joined Tesla in 2014 to lead the Model X program, but he is better known for being the early leader of the Autopilot program at Tesla from 2015 to 2016.

He left the automaker to co-found Aurora, a self-driving startup, with Chris Urmson, a founding member of Google’s self-driving project, which became Waymo.

In recent years, Aurora has been focused on bringing self-driving technology to trucks.

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Today GM announced that Anderson will joined the company in a new role of “Chief Product Officer” starting on June 2.

GM wrote about the role in an email:

In this newly created role, Sterling will oversee GM’s end-to-end product lifecycle, ensuring a cohesive strategy that integrates hardware, software, and services to deliver exceptional quality, performance, and user experiences across our global portfolio of gas-powered and electric vehicles.  

In his new role, Sterling will have several direct reports, including another former Tesla exec, Kurt Kelty, who now leads GM’s Battery, Propulsion and Sustainability team. He will also oversee Global Manufacturing & Product Engineering, Research & Development (led by Josh Tavel), Software and Services Product (led by Bariş Cetinok), and Vehicle Product Programs, Product Safety, Integration & Motorsports (led by Ken Morris).

GM president Mark Reuss: 

“With decades of leadership in automotive engineering, tech start-ups, and software innovation, Sterling is absolutely the right person to help us accelerate the pace of progress across the entire portfolio and to build vehicles with the design, performance, and technology that our customers want and expect.”

Anderson has an extensive educational background in robotics and expertise in motion planning and autonomous controls, which could indicate the direction GM is taking for its products.

Electrek’s Take

Former Tesla execs are now holding prominent roles on the product side of several major US automakers.

Doug Field leads Ford’s electric vehicle division, and Anderson has the top product role at GM.

What I like about this is that many of Tesla’s early employees, like Field and Anderson, were true believers of Tesla’s mission to accelerate the advent of electric transport.

Now they get to push this agenda in legacy automakers, which can have a great impact on that mission.

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