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Any pay-per-view with two title fights is going to capture the attention of the sport, but on Saturday night at UFC 266, it’s the third fight on the card that has most fight fans talking. Nick Diaz will walk to the Octagon for his first fight since 2015 to face Robbie Lawler in a rematch 17 years in the making. What can we expect when he returns?

In the main event of UFC 266, Alexander Volkanovski defends the featherweight title against Brian Ortega. The two spent plenty of time together during the latest season of The Ultimate Fighter, but will that experience impact the outcome? Ortega’s last title fight didn’t go his way — will this time be different?

The other champion on the card, Valentina Shevchenko, hopes nothing will be different in her upcoming fight against Lauren Murphy while Curtis Blaydes may have to adjust his strategy against Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

Brett Okamoto, Marc Raimondi, Mike Coppinger, Jeff Wagenheim and Carlos Contreras Legaspi separate what’s real and what’s not ahead of Saturday night’s pay-per-view.

We’ll be impressed by Nick Diaz in his return

Okamoto: Look, the only answer to this — the real answer to this — is, “I have no idea.” No one does. Diaz wasn’t even that active when he was … active.

Prior to that bogus suspension for marijuana in 2015, which ultimately led to his six-year absence, Diaz had only fought once in the span of 22 months. And when his career was derailed by a — I’ll say it again, bogus — suspension, he veered hard into a civilian lifestyle.

Diaz has not always lived the life of a professional athlete over the past six years. He’s had somewhat of a tortured relationship with fighting in general. He doesn’t love it, but he knows he’s good at it and it’s his means of income. Trying to figure out Diaz’s level of motivation, his reasons for fighting or even his enthusiasm around this return … it’s impossible. And I think that obviously matters a lot, when trying to guess what he’ll look like on Saturday. Because if Diaz doesn’t truly want to be here and he has reservations about being here, that will show.

And if that is the case, then no, we won’t be impressed. We’ll probably say he should never do this again.

I’m genuinely excited and curious about Diaz’s return, but I’m going in with no expectations. This has an equal chance of going really well or really badly.

Brian Ortega will make the most of his second title fight and win

Raimondi: When Brian Ortega first challenged for the UFC featherweight title, against Max Holloway at UFC 231 on Dec. 8, 2018, he was 27 years old and already being dubbed as the UFC’s next golden boy. Ortega was hanging out with actor Robert Downey Jr., getting endorsement deals with high profile companies like Body Armour and — with his good looks, charisma and exciting fighting style — seemed primed to be the promotion’s newest crossover star.

That all hit a speed bump when Holloway beat Ortega by fourth-round TKO. Holloway hit him with everything he had, but Ortega kept coming until the doctor pulled the plug before the fifth round. Ortega showed a ton of heart, but he also showed he wasn’t quite ready yet to become champion. And perhaps those lofty expectations were too much, too soon.

It is no longer too soon for Ortega, which is why I’m saying “real” to this statement. He’s 30 years old and going into this next title challenge, against Alexander Volkanovski on Saturday at UFC 266 in Las Vegas, like a new man. He’s changed up his coaching staff. His striking game has improved drastically. Ortega really showed marked growth in his unanimous decision win over rival “Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung last October. It was arguably the best performance of his career, a fight he controlled from the opening bell.

In four consecutive fights from 2015 to 2017, Ortega finished his opponents in the third round. In almost all of those bouts, Ortega was either losing on the cards when he earned the stoppage or had at least lost a portion of the fight. The showing against “Zombie” was a complete one — and actually the only fight to go to decision of his UFC run. Things were never out of Ortega’s hands then. Jung was supposed to be the better striker, Ortega the Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist. But Ortega befuddled Jung on the feet with a new southpaw stance and crafty techniques and tactics.

Provided he brings that same style against Volkanovski — combined with his innate finishing ability — we could be talking about Ortega, finally, as UFC champion, nearly three years after he was perhaps prematurely crowned as the future 145-pound king.

Valentina Shevchenko will finish Lauren Murphy

Wagenheim: Shevchenko is a 14-to-1 favorite, so it’s a good bet she’ll beat Murphy. But finish her? Let’s look at Shevchenko’s recent history.

The champ has won seven fights in a row, dominating every one of those bouts but alternating between finishes and decisions. The three recent opponents who have gone all five rounds with Shevchenko — Jennifer Maia, Liz Carmouche and Joanna Jedrzejczyk — are all sturdy and resilient. So is Murphy. In 19 career fights, she has never been finished. Then again, Murphy has never been locked inside a cage with Valentina Shevchenko.

Murphy has won five straight and been in a bunch of competitive fights. Half of her most recent wins have come by split decision. I don’t expect her to put up a close fight against Shevchenko, but survive she can.

If I were a betting man, I’d hate to spend 25 minutes holding my breath while hoping for a Shevchenko’s opponent to merely make it to the final horn so I could cash a ticket. But that’s where my money would be. The above statement is not real.

The main event will not be the most exciting fight of the night

Legaspi: Anyone who still thinks that the only chance for Ortega to beat Volkanovski is by submitting him is really wrong. The rivalry between this two fighters has grown for almost a year, and the fact that it was postponed and their time on The Ultimate Fighter only added fuel to that fire.

Ortega is coming off a striking clinic against one of the best in the division — and was gutsy enough to try the same in his first title fight against the self-proclaimed best boxer in the UFC, Max Holloway. Let’s not forget he was also the first one to knock out Frankie Edgar. Ortega probably has the best jiu-jitsu in the top of the featherweight division, but he barely tries to take down his opponents.

This fight could certainly play out as a long stand-up confrontation, because Volkanovski doesn’t want to risk it on the ground. So for me, this fight is likely to deliver a lot of excitement, and for that reason I’m going to say it’s “not real.” I can’t deny that the fans will go wild when Diaz steps inside the Octagon after his layoff, but it’s really hard to tell how competitive this rematch is going to be 17 years later.

There are many other fights that look promising, though. If Dan Hooker makes it for this week’s matchup against Nasrat Haqparast after days of dealing with visa issues, he will recover his spot among title contenders, provided he has a big performance. There’s also Merab Dvalishvili, who will try to make a statement by finishing an opponent for the first time in the UFC. He’ll have to do that against someone who loves to exchange in Marlon Moraes.

Curtis Blaydes has to take Jairzinho Rozenstruik down in order to win

Coppinger: A takedown (or 10) certainly would help Blaydes’ efforts. After all, the NCAA wrestler is a far better grappler than his opponent. If Blaydes can control Rozenstruik on the ground — and along the cage — he can neutralize his foe’s awesome power and avoid the kind of shot that flattened him in his most recent loss to Derrick Lewis.

In Blaydes’ last win, a unanimous decision over Alexander Volkov, Blaydes scored 14 takedowns while allowing just one. His losses to Lewis and Francis Ngannou both featured exactly zero takedowns.

But Blaydes’ finish of Junior Dos Santos was also a stand-up affair, so Blaydes doesn’t need have to rely on his wrestling game to win. So for this fight, at least, I’ll say, “not real.”

If Rozenstruik is going to spring the upset, he surely needs to avoid being dominated on the ground. His takedown defense has proven formidable, with Rozenstruik able to avoid 80% of attempts.

Rozenstruik, a former kickboxer, is the more dangerous striker and loves to keep the fight on his feet. In fact, he’s never recorded a takedown in his eight fights in the Octagon. All of his wins have come via KO/TKO, with his two losses coming against the two best heavyweights in the world (Ciryl Gane and Ngannou).

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NASCAR’s motions to dismiss antitrust suit denied

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NASCAR's motions to dismiss antitrust suit denied

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — A federal judge has denied NASCAR’s motions to dismiss an antitrust lawsuit filed against the stock car series.

U.S. District Judge Kenneth Bell of the Western District of North Carolina also denied NASCAR’s request that two teams — 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports — be ordered to post a bond to cover fees they would not be legally owed if they lose the case.

23XI Racing, a team co-owned by NBA Hall of Famer Michael Jordan, and Front Row Motorsports, which is owned by entrepreneur Bob Jenkins, are suing NASCAR to compete with charter recognition throughout the 2025 season.

NASCAR and the teams that compete in the top Cup Series operate with a franchise system that was implemented in 2016 in which 36 cars have “charters” that guarantee them a spot in the field at every race and financial incentives. There are four “open” spots earmarked for the field each week.

The teams banded together in negotiations on an improved charter system in an often-contentious battle with NASCAR for nearly two years. In September, NASCAR finally had enough and presented the teams with a take-it-or-leave-it offer that had to be signed the same day – just 48 hours before the start of the playoffs.

23XI and Front Row were the only two teams out of 15 who refused to sign the new charter agreement. They then teamed together to sue NASCAR and chairman Jim France, arguing as the only stock car entity in the United States, NASCAR has a monopoly and the teams are not getting their fair share of the pie.

Both organizations maintained they would still compete as open cars, but convinced Bell last month to give them chartered status by arguing they would suffer irreparable harm as open cars. Among the claims was that 23XI driver Tyler Reddick, last year’s regular-season champion, would contractually become an immediate free agent if the team did not have him in a guaranteed chartered car.

NASCAR argued Wednesday that it needs that money earmarked because it would be redistributed to the chartered teams if 23XI and Front Row lose.

Jeffrey Kessler, considered the top antitrust lawyer in the country, argued that NASCAR has made no such promise to redistribute the funds to other teams. Kessler said NASCAR told teams it was up to NASCAR’s discretion how it would use the money and didn’t rule out spending some on its own legal fees.

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Mo 2.0? Devin Williams ready to close games for Yankees with a pitch no one else can throw

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Mo 2.0? Devin Williams ready to close games for Yankees with a pitch no one else can throw

For years, teammates have asked Devin Williams to teach them his changeup, a pitch so unusual and dominant it has its own nickname. Williams always helps. They just never get “The Airbender” right.

“I haven’t seen anyone replicate it,” Williams said.

Powered by The Airbender, Williams has established himself as one of the premier relievers in baseball since breaking into the majors in 2019. He has been so good that the Milwaukee Brewers, keeping with their frugal roster-building tactics, traded Williams to the New York Yankees last month for left-hander Nestor Cortes and prospect Caleb Durbin before he inevitably would become too expensive in free agency next winter.

So, for one season, at least, Williams will follow in the footsteps of another Yankees closer who perplexed hitters with one pitch: Mariano Rivera.

“Those are big shoes to fill,” Williams said of Rivera, whose signature cutter helped him become the first player voted unanimously to the Hall of Fame. “I feel he kind of ruined it for everybody else. I mean, after him, it’s hard to live up to those expectations. But at the end of the day, I can only be me.”

Being himself has been more than good enough for the 30-year-old Williams. The right-hander won the 2020 National League Rookie of the Year Award with a 0.33 ERA in 22 games as the Brewers’ primary setup man during the COVID-shortened campaign. He was an All-Star in 2022 and 2023, his first full season as a closer.

Last season, after missing the first four months with stress fractures in his back, he posted a 1.25 ERA with 14 saves in 15 opportunities across 22 appearances. His 40.8% strikeout rate since 2020 ranks second in the majors among relievers. His 1.70 ERA is also second. His .144 batting average against ranks first.

“Obviously, he’s one of the best in the league, if not the best,” Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake said.

For Williams, it all starts with The Airbender. Williams grips it like a changeup and its 84-mph average velocity plays off his fastball like a changeup. But it’s a changeup with an exceptionally high spin rate that breaks to his arm side — opposite from the typical changeup — making it resemble a screwball or a left-hander’s sweeping slider. It is without precedent.

“It’s not anything to do with the grip,” Williams said. “The grip is nothing special. That’s why I think it’s funny when people are like, ‘Oh, don’t give it away.’ This is the most basic changeup grip they teach you when you’re 8 years old.”

Williams said his changeup is so different for two reasons: His elite extension, which ranked in the 98th percentile in 2024, and a singular ability to pronate his wrist.

“It’s the way my wrist works, the way I’m able to manipulate the ball is something unique, uniquely me,” Williams said. “It allows me to throw my changeup the way I throw it. I’m a really good pronator, not supinator. That’s why my slider sucked. You need to get on the other side of the ball. I’m not good at that. I’m good at turning it over.”

Williams did, however, modify his changeup grip to unearth the weapon. Entering 2019, Williams was a struggling minor league starter with a solid changeup, two years removed from Tommy John surgery. He was one year from reaching free agency, from perhaps seeing his career come to an end and going to college to play soccer.

That spring, seeking more movement, he altered his changeup grip from a two-seam to a four-seam, circle change grip. He first threw it during a live batting practice session to Trent Grisham, then a Brewers prospect. Grisham, now with the Yankees, told Williams the spin difference was noticeable. Williams stuck with it.

A starter through spring training, Williams was sent to Double-A as a reliever to begin the season. The demotion sparked desperation, and Williams decided to throw harder than ever, reaching back to lift his fastball into the high 90s. He was in the majors by August. But it wasn’t until the COVID shutdown in 2020 — when he realized spinning the ball more and dropping the velocity from high-80s to mid-80s created more movement — that his changeup reached another level.

“I took that into the season and at summer camp I’m facing my own teammates,” Williams said. “And Jedd Gyorko, I threw him one, and he swung and missed and he was just like, What is that? I’ve never seen [anything] like that. That gave me confidence and we just ran with it. And I literally started throwing it all the time.”

Coincidentally, Williams said the closest changeup he’s seen to his belongs to Luke Weaver, whose emergence as a shutdown reliever in 2024 was crucial in the Yankees reaching the World Series. Williams happened to be in New York when the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers played in the Fall Classic. He was on his annual autumn vacation after the Brewers were eliminated from the postseason. Past trips have taken him all over Europe: London, Paris, Dublin, Amsterdam, Munich, Dortmund, with a soccer game invariably on his itinerary.

This time, he was in New York. He explored the city for 10 days. Instead of soccer, he watched the World Series from a bar. He shopped. He ate good food. He absorbed the city’s energy.

“I’m a city guy,” Williams said. “I love to explore cities. I like to immerse myself in the culture. I want to be like a normal, everyday person. You guys like bacon, egg and cheese? All right, I’m getting a bacon, egg and cheese.”

Less than two months later, as part of a series of moves executed in their pivot from Juan Soto‘s decision to sign with the crosstown Mets, the Yankees added Williams. On Thursday, Williams settled for $8.6 million to avoid arbitration.

He’ll partner with Weaver to create one of the best bullpen back ends in baseball — in hopes of helping the Yankees win their first championship since Rivera was dominating hitters with his cutter.

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Pens’ Crosby passes Sakic, now 9th on scoring list

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Pens' Crosby passes Sakic, now 9th on scoring list

PITTSBURGH — Sidney Crosby had a goal and two assists to move into ninth on the NHL’s career scoring list as the Pittsburgh Penguins beat Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers 5-3 on Thursday night.

The Penguins’ captain tied Hall of Famer Joe Sakic at 1,641 points with an assist on Bryan Rust‘s first-period goal. Crosby then moved past Sakic with an assist on Drew O’Connor‘s sixth goal of the season later in the period as the Penguins raced to a 4-1 advantage.

Crosby’s 12th goal 5:42 into the second put the Penguins up 5-1, providing some welcome wiggle room for a team that has struggled to hold multiple-goal leads this season.

The next name ahead of Crosby on the career scoring list is none other than Penguins icon Mario Lemieux, who had 1,723 points.

“I’m running out of superlatives [about Crosby],” Penguins coach Mike Sullivan told reporters after the game. “What he’s accomplishing, first of all, his body of work in the league, his legacy that has been built to this point, speaks for itself. He’s the consummate pro. He just represents our sport, the league, the Pittsburgh Penguins in such a great way.

“He just carries himself with so much grace and humility and integrity. And he’s a fierce competitor on the ice.”

Rust also had a goal and two assists for Pittsburgh, which snapped a three-game losing streak by beating the Oilers for the first time since Dec. 20, 2019.

“For us, that was our goal — to be on our toes, be all over them, be on top of them, because they’re very fast, a skilled team,” Rust told reporters after the game. “I think just a result of that was us being able to get some offense.”

Alex Nedeljkovic made 40 stops for the Penguins and Rickard Rakell scored his team-high 21st goal as Pittsburgh won without injured center Evgeni Malkin.

McDavid finished with three assists. Leon Draisaitl scored twice to boost his season total to an NHL-best 31, but the Penguins beat Stuart Skinner four times in the first 14 minutes. Skinner settled down to finish with 21 saves but it wasn’t enough as the Penguins ended Edmonton’s four-game winning streak.

TAKEAWAYS

Oilers: Their attention to detail in the first period was shaky. Though Skinner wasn’t at his best, the Penguins also had little trouble generating chances.

Penguins: Pittsburgh remains a work in progress at midseason but showed it can compete with the league’s best.

UP NEXT

Edmonton finishes a four-game trip at Chicago on Saturday. The Penguins continue a five-game homestand Saturday against Ottawa.

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