There are just two weeks to go in the 2021 MLB regular season and we are pumped.
There’s a thrilling National League West race raging between baseball’s two best teams, the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The wild-card races are crowded in both leagues, with three American League East teams — the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays — front and center. And then there are the players looking to put the finishing touches on — or make a late push for — each of the postseason awards, from MVP to Cy Young and Rookie of the Year.
So what has us most excited about these final 14 days? Which teams have the most at stake? Which end-of-season storylines aren’t getting as much attention as they deserve? In short: How will it all shake out as September turns into October?
We asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to answer those questions and more as we get set for some of the biggest baseball games of the year so far. Next stop: the playoffs!
What are you most excited about in the final two weeks of the regular season?
Doolittle: There are some fun races for playoff slots and seeds, but I’m actually more amped for the stretch run on the AL hitting leaderboards than anything. Can Salvador Perez become the first primary catcher and Kansas City Royal to hit 50 homers? Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. catch Perez and Jose Abreu in the RBI column and win the Triple Crown? Can Shohei Ohtani become the first true two-way player to lead a league in homers since Babe Ruth? I find these are the things I keep checking in on as each night’s games play out.
Gonzalez: The AL wild-card race. This was basically a three-way tie between the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays when Friday began, and a couple of critical head-to-head matches remain. The Red Sox face the Yankees this weekend and the Blue Jays play the Yankees next week, but every game these teams play moving forward will feature high stakes. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Judge, Xander Bogaerts, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Robbie Ray and so many other stars that make up these supremely talented rosters will be playing in pressure-packed moments down the stretch, and nothing is more fun than that. The AL East is a juggernaut, and it’s only fitting that three of its teams will advance into the postseason. The question is: Which one will not?
Rogers: The NL wild-card race. If the St. Louis Cardinals beat out both the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds, that will be quite something. And it should cost Jayce Tingler his job. The Cardinals had as many injuries to their starting staff as the Padres did but held the line while getting healthy. The way to do that, with a less talented roster due to injuries, is to beat the bad teams. Entering the weekend, the Padres were just 40-39 against minus-.500 teams. The Cardinals were 50-31. Those numbers have nothing to do with the difference between the two divisions the teams reside in.
Schoenfield: The Phillies’ four-game winning streak ended Sunday and the Braves’ four-game losing streak did, too, but Atlanta’s five-game lead has suddenly shrunk to a two-game lead. That’s exciting, but my preference remains the NL West race, where the Giants and Dodgers keep playing at an unbelievably high level. They’re done playing one another, so this is a classic scoreboard-watching race. Yes, the loser still gets the wild card, but both teams want to avoid that play-in game. Everybody has an opinion on whether they like or hate the wild card, but this is a reminder of why finishing in first is so important and why a great division race is still the best baseball has to offer.
Which team has the most at stake?
Doolittle: The Yankees. It’s a combination of factors: title drought, payroll, aggressiveness at the trade deadline, preseason expectation and the glare of New York itself. Even though it would be a wild-card berth, playing on into the postseason would stave off a lot of grief for that organization. Given that missing out on a wild-card slot likely means a fourth-place finish in this year’s AL East, the calls for sweeping change would be blaring if that happens.
Gonzalez: The Yankees, a team with the second-highest payroll in the sport and consistently the highest expectations. They doubled down in July, parting with prospects to acquire Anthony Rizzo in his final months before free agency. Missing out on the postseason wouldn’t just be a disappointment; it would trigger serious questions about the makeup of this roster and how it needs to evolve in order to seriously contend again. And there are no easy answers there.
Rogers: The Padres. Jayce Tingler and his players have been too focused on reeling off a big win streak instead of taking it one game at a time. Perhaps they got down on themselves once the division became out of reach. They should really be down if they’re sitting at home while the Dodgers play the Reds or Cardinals in the wild-card game. The latter team was ready to pack in the season when it traded for starters Jon Lester and J.A. Happ, but time was on the Cardinals’ side and they have taken advantage. Heads should roll in San Diego if the Padres don’t make it. You can’t say the same about Cincinnati or St. Louis. The Yankees have to be 1a in this discussion.
Schoenfield: Another vote for the Yankees. There are kids who just finished their Little League careers who have never seen the Yankees in a World Series. Given the preseason expectations and the recent run of crushing playoff disappointments — the Game 5 American League Division Series loss to the Rays in 2020 with Gerrit Cole on the mound, the Jose Altuve home run in the 2019 American League Championship Series, the 4-0 shutout loss in Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS — a World Series-less season, let alone one without a playoff appearance, could lead to Brian Cashman rejiggering the roster, the manager, and the coaching staff.
Which storyline isn’t getting as much attention as it should?
Doolittle: I wouldn’t say that this hasn’t gotten any attention, but however much it’s garnered, it’s not enough: What Max Scherzer has done for the Dodgers is beyond unreal. With his seven shutout innings at Cincinnati on Sept. 18, Max Scherzer owns a 0.78 ERA over nine starts with the Dodgers. That is the best nine-start stretch of his big-league career, besting a run he had in 2019 for the Nationals that ended on July 6 of that season. Scherzer was a first-ballot Hall of Famer before the trade — an assertion that I don’t think many would dispute. Despite that fact, he dropped into a high-stakes division race and launched the most dominant stretch of pitching in his career. He’s been so good that it’s almost frightening to watch him work. He is just that dominant.
Gonzalez:Bryce Harper and Fernando Tatis Jr. are seemingly hashing it out for the NL MVP, but Juan Soto has been amazing for a flailing Nationals team. He has an absurd .525 on-base percentage since the All-Star break and owns a .990 OPS for the season, trailing only Harper and Guerrero. He’s doing this in his age-22 season, after batting .351/.490/.695 through the shortened 2020 season. Those Ted Williams comps don’t seem so farfetched.
Rogers: Houston’s dominance. As great as the Rays are, and as hot as the Blue Jays have been, it’s the Astros who have the best run differential in the American League. They’ve been in first place seemingly forever and every time Oakland or even Seattle has made a run, the Astros have done the same. Here’s the scariest stat for playoff opponents: Entering the weekend, Houston was 43-31 against plus-.500 teams. That’s a better win percentage than the Rays, Giants and Dodgers have.
Schoenfield: The Brewers have been so far out in front of the NL Central for so long that, perhaps aside from Corbin Burnes, they haven’t received much attention as they deserve. No, their run differential isn’t as impressive as that of the Giants/Dodgers/Astros/Rays/Blue Jays, but this is a team built for October, with the terrific trio of Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, possibly the most dominant closer in the game in Josh Hader plus the ability to mix and match Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser and a deep bullpen. They need to get Willy Adames back and healthy for the postseason, but this team can win the first World Series in franchise history behind its pitching-and-defense formula.
Will any races be decided on the final day? Will there be any ties?
Doolittle: Both seem like strong possibilities, if only because of the cluster of teams competing for wild-card spots in both leagues, not to mention the neck-and-neck division title race between the Giants and Dodgers plus the suddenly hot race in the NL East with the Phillies and Braves. In the AL, you’ve got a five-team cluster for two spots in the wild-card race — all five are within four games of each other in the loss column. In the NL, you’ve got four teams within four games of each other competing for one spot. The Cardinals showed this weekend how quickly a team can create some separation, but even in the last two weeks, the outlook in all of these races could transmogrify over the course of a few days.
Gonzalez: I think the Giants and Dodgers are destined to go until the final day, possibly even beyond that. There have been more than 20 instances since the start of August when the Dodgers have won and have not been able to gain any ground on the Giants. It’s only fitting that these two longtime rivals settle it in Game 163.
Rogers: The AL wild card might be decided the day after the final day. So yes, it will come down to that final Sunday — at least.
Schoenfield: Yes, with four races in play — three teams (and maybe the A’s) for two AL wild cards, the second wild card, plus the NL East and NL West — I think there is a 50/50 chance we get some sort of tiebreaker on Monday. If you really want chaos, we get the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Reds and Padres all finishing with the same record, creating a five-way tie for the NL East and the second wild card (and maybe an NL West tiebreaker to boot!). Come on, baseball gods, we need this.
Which team is going to win the NL West?
Doolittle: While I remain steadfast that the Dodgers are better than the Giants, and everyone else for that matter, the simple fact remains that San Francisco has the current edge and has shown zero inclination of regressing to preseason expectations. There are no remaining head-to-head meetings between them, so at this point, the math very slightly favors the Giants. Who am I to argue with math? But… with the lead down to one game, if I think the Dodgers are the better team, then I kind of have to pick them.
Rogers: It’ll be the Dodgers. San Francisco held out as long as they could but L.A. is a machine right now. Championship hangovers usually end during the second half and the Dodgers are no different.
Schoenfield: We keep waiting for the Giants to at least bend, but their second-best month was August (19-9) and their best month has been September (13-5 so far). Those six remaining games against the Padres suddenly don’t look so tough with the Padres self-destructing — and in public, as we saw Saturday night with Manny Machado yelling at Tatis. The Giants hold off the Dodgers, 106 wins to 105.
Who are your wild-card picks and why?
Doolittle: The Dodgers … and three other teams. Want more? Ugh. Fine. In the NL, I still think the Padres are the most talented of the five teams angling for the second wild-card slot, even with their improv rotation. But the Cardinals are the only one of those teams playing winning baseball in September and they just gut-punched the Padres all weekend. Right now, I am taking them. In the AL, geesh, it’s like eating soup with a fork. Every time you think the race is starting to clarify, someone gets hot and someone else goes into the tank. The Yankees are wavering after getting pounded in two home games against Cleveland over the weekend, but they have series left against both Toronto and Boston to make up the gap. I’m going with the Yankees and Blue Jays.
Gonzalez: I’ll pick the Yankees and Blue Jays in the AL, and I have the Reds winning the second wild-card spot in the NL. The Padres’ remaining schedule is just too difficult, and their rotation is banged up at the wrong time. If the Reds continue to get what they got from Luis Castillo on Friday, they’re a dangerous team.
Rogers: St. Louis will prevail in the NL. Its final 13 games will come against a Brewers team that’s clinched and a Cubs team that is bad. Counting on wins against teams with less to play for is always dangerous, as the Reds proved by barely winning 1 of 3 against the Pirates recently, but the Cardinals are the Cardinals. They usually prevail when it’s close. Somehow, someway, the Yankees will squeak in with the Blue Jays. And somehow, someway, the Red Sox won’t.
Schoenfield: The Yankees finish with a six-game road trip to Boston and Toronto and then three at home against the Rays. They have no games left against the Orioles. The Red Sox finish with six games against the Orioles and Nationals. The Blue Jays have a four-game series against the Twins and finish with three games at home against the Orioles. I’ll go with Boston and Toronto. In the NL, I’m eliminating the Padres. If the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals and Reds all end up tied, the formula is simple: The Braves play the Phillies for the NL East title while the Cardinals and Reds play to stay in the race. The loser of Braves/Phillies plays the winner of Cardinals/Reds for the wild card. There is no current formula if the Padres are also in that mix. My head hurts.
It didn’t take Yankees slugger Juan Soto long to show Padres fans what they are missing.
In his first game back to face San Diego since being traded to the Yankees this offseason, he drove a third-inning high fastball from Yu Darvish over the right-center-field fence for his 14th homer of the year. It was the first of three no-doubt shots for the Yankees that inning off Darvish. Aaron Judge followed with a homer and Giancarlo Stanton also had a two-run shot.
Soto’s 423-foot homer gave the Yankees a 3-0 lead as they went on to win the game 8-0. He also walked in the fourth, flied out to the wall in right in the seventh and doubled in the ninth.
He described the third inning as “electric, fun. Definitely fun. It was pretty cool to see the guys coming through against a guy like that. It’s huge.”
The 25-year-old from the Dominican Republic was greeted with a mixture of boos from Padres fans and cheers from the many Yankees fans at Petco Park when the starting lineup was announced and each time he came to the plate.
“I wasn’t expecting cheers or boos but they did both,” Soto said. “I was right in the middle. That was pretty cool. That’s fine. I don’t mind at all.”
The Yankees are 37-4, including the playoffs, when Stanton and Judge homer in the same game and are 2-0 when Soto, Judge and Stanton all homer in the same game.
“It was pretty awesome, actually,” manager Aaron Boone said of the third inning. “You get those moments every now and then in the regular season that are, ‘Man, that was pretty cool.’ When Juan kind of took the air out of it right there and Judgey follows it right up, and then here we go (Alex) Verdugo and then here we go Stanton, one of those cool ones during the season that you get to be a part of.”
Soto left a note on the grass in right field after the eighth inning that his former teammate Fernando Tatis Jr. picked up and read when he took the field in the ninth.
Soto wouldn’t say what the note said, but added: “It was something cool. He enjoyed it because when I hit the double he looked at me, he was laughing about it.”
In preparing for his first game at Petco since being traded to New York on Dec. 7, Soto said he thought San Diego is a great city for any big leaguer to play in for a long time.
“My time in San Diego was great. It was unbelievable,” said Soto, who was involved in two blockbuster trades in just 16 months.
The Padres obtained Soto from Washington in an eight-player trade Aug. 2, 2022, after he turned down a $440 million, 15-year offer from the Nationals. The Padres envisioned having him for three playoff runs. Though they made a stirring run to the NL Championship Series in 2022, they were a major disappointment in 2023, when they missed the playoffs despite having baseball’s third-highest payroll.
Soto said he was prepared to return to San Diego for this season.
But the death of free-spending owner Peter Seidler on Nov. 14 plunged the Padres into financial uncertainty. Looking to reset their luxury tax and needing to add pitching, they sent Soto to the Yankees in a seven-player trade.
“We never get the chance to keep talking a little bit farther with the Padres, but it was a great team, great fan base,” Soto said. “But at the end of the day, we just couldn’t get it done and just keep moving forward.
“Where I’m at, I’m more than happy where I’m at. I’m really excited,” he said.
The Yankees and Soto agreed Jan. 11 to a $31 million, one-year contract, breaking Shohei Ohtani’s record for an arbitration-eligible player. Soto had a $23 million salary last year in his only full season with the Padres and the outfielder can become a free agent after this season, when he will be 26.
Boone, part of the first family in baseball history to produce three generations of major league players, said the series should offer “a little added buzz with Juan being back here and the Yankees being in town.
“Obviously, this is a pretty wild fan base,” said Boone, who was born in suburban La Mesa. “It’s been such a popular scene here these last couple of years with the big-name people they’ve brought in. And I’m sure with us being here it’s going to be a pretty cool environment, especially being on a weekend.”
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
Harper struck out on a 0-2 curveball from Ty Blach, dropped his bat and threw his helmet. The two-time NL MVP said something to plate umpire Brian Walsh and immediately was ejected.
Harper and Phillies manager Rob Thomson argued to no avail following Harper’s 21st big league ejection. Harper had called a timeout after taking a borderline 0-1 sinker that appeared to be low and inside.
Harper is hitting .279 with 12 homers, 37 RBIs and a .929 OPS.
Third baseman Alec Bohm moved to first in place of Harper, left fielder Whit Merrifield switched to third and Johan Rojas entered in center and Cristian Pache moved from center to left.
With two on and one out in the bottom of the ninth, Andrew Benintendi popped up. Shortstop Gunnar Henderson caught the ball — umpires had called the infield fly rule — for the second out, then third-base umpire Junior Valentine ruled that Andrew Vaughn interfered with Henderson on the play.
After the game, crew chief Adrian Johnson said there is no discretion when a baserunner appears to make incidental contact with a fielder — even if the play results in a defensive out.
“If he hinders the fielder in the attempt to field a batted ball, intent is not required and it’s interference,” Johnson said. “When you see the interference, you call it.”
Rule 6.01(a) seems to support that: “A runner who is adjudged to have hindered a fielder who is attempting to make a play on a batted ball is out whether it was intentional or not.”
But a source told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers that MLB reached out to the White Sox after the game to say the umpires do have discretion on that play and that interference didn’t have to be called.
“It was a big surprise,” said Vaughn, who was the runner at second and ruled out. “I don’t feel like he was deterred from making a play. It was a high popup. We were all reading it. As a runner, I’ve got to read it and make sure I can get back to the bag.”
White Sox manager Pedro Grifol argued vehemently with umpires at the conclusion of the stunning final sequence.
There certainly was confusion, and the play ended the rally for the White Sox, who had scored four runs in the ninth.
“I felt like we escaped there,” Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said.
The White Sox, who have won only once in their past seven games, will try again to gain traction during their seven-game homestand that began Thursday night. The Orioles halted a season-worst three-game losing streak by prevailing in the series opener.
On Friday, right-hander Corbin Burnes (4-2, 2.56 ERA) will start for the Orioles, going for back-to-back victories after holding the Seattle Mariners without an earned run in six innings of Baltimore’s 6-3 win Sunday. He struck out 11 for the second time this season.
“I’m happy with how my stuff looks,” Burnes said. “Happy how the ball is coming out. Can’t really complain about it.”
Right-hander Chris Flexen (2-4, 5.48 ERA) will be on the mound for Chicago, trying to bounce back from Sunday’s rough outing against the New York Yankees. He allowed seven runs on eight hits in four innings in Chicago’s 7-2 loss.
“It’s just about executing pitches,” Flexen said.
In three career starts against Baltimore, Flexen is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. The loss came in August when he was a member of the Colorado Rockies.
Information from The Associated Press and Field Level Media was used in this report.
