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The first part of this analysis on the recently released life-cycle assessment of “blue” hydrogen covered the provenance and background for the paper, as well as the significant and questionable assumptions that the authors make about both expected demand for “blue” hydrogen and the scalability of carbon capture and sequestration it would demand. This second half continues the analysis of assumptions and statements in the paper.

“In general, large-scale blue hydrogen production will be connected to the high-pressure natural gas transmission grid and therefore, methane emissions from final distribution to decentralized consumers (i.e., the low-pressure distribution network) should not be included in the quantification of climate impacts of blue hydrogen.”

The first problem with this is the assumption that massive centralized models of hydrogen generation will be preferable to the current highly distributed creation of hydrogen at the point of consumption. The challenges with distributing hydrogen are clear and obvious, so it’s interesting that they make an assumption that is completely contrary to what is occurring today, and wave away the significant additional challenges — including carbon debt — of creating a massive hydrogen distribution system essentially from scratch.

This also assumes that there will continue to be a distribution network for natural gas. Electrification of heat will continue apace, eliminating this market. But supposing that it does continue, this assumes that perpetuating the leakage problem is in line with actual climate mitigation, which is decidedly not the case. This is not the point of the paper, but is in line with the rest of the paper’s assumptions.

“… natural gas supply must be associated with low GHG emissions, which means that natural gas leaks and methane emissions along the entire supply chain, including extraction, storage, and transport, must be minimized.”

This is in context of what requirements “blue” hydrogen would have to meet in order to be low-carbon hydrogen per the paper.

I agree with this statement, but further say that there is zero reason to believe that this will be widely adhered to as the fossil fuel industry is already lagging substantially in maintenance with declining revenues in regions impacted by the Saudi Arabian-Russian price war, the history of the industry consists of a Ponzi-scheme of paying for remediation with far distant and non-existent revenues — witness the $200 billion in unfunded remediation in Alberta’s oil sands as merely the tip of the iceberg, and as long-distance piping and shipping of natural gas requires a great deal of expensive monitoring and maintenance to maintain that standard.

In other words, while the statement is true as far as it goes, it is so unlikely to be common as to be irrelevant to the actual needs of the world for hydrogen, something that the authors barely acknowledge.

“Our assessment is that CO2 capture technology is already sufficiently mature to allow removal rates at the hydrogen production plant of above 90%. Capture rates close to 100% are technically feasible, slightly decreasing energy efficiencies and increasing costs, but have yet to be demonstrated at scale.”

Once again, 90% is inadequate with over a thousand billion tons of excess CO2 already in the atmosphere. Second, carbon capture at source has been being done since the mid-19th century. It’s not getting magically better. The likelihood that approaching 100% capture rate technologies will be deployed by organizations and individuals who think 90% is good enough and are likely to be rewarded handsomely for achieving that level approaches zero. After all, Equinor has received what I estimate to be over a billion USD in tax breaks for its Sleipner facility, which simply pumps CO2 they extracted back underground, and ExxonMobil touts its Shute Creek facility as the best in the world when it pumps CO2 up in one place then back underground in another place for enhanced oil recovery, benefiting nothing except their bottom line.

Removal of carbon from the atmosphere to draw down CO2 levels toward achieving a stable climate will not be realized by “good enough,” and close to 100% will be so rarely realized globally that it’s not worth discussing.

“It is important to reiterate that no single hydrogen production technology (including electrolysis with renewables) is completely net-zero in terms of GHG emissions over its life cycle and will therefore need additional GHG removal from the atmosphere to comply with strict net-zero targets.”

The authors appear to think that the current CO2e emissions from purely renewable energy are going to persist. As mining, processing, distribution, manufacturing and construction processes decarbonize, the currently very low GHG emissions of renewables full lifecycle will fall. This is equivalent to the common argument against electric cars, that grid electricity isn’t pure. It’s also a remarkable oversight for a group of authors committed to a rigorous LCA process.

The argument that “blue” hydrogen at its very best in the best possible cases will be as good as renewably powered electrolysis as it decarbonizes fails the basic tests of logic and reasonableness.

“… natural gas with CCS may be a more sustainable route than hydrogen to decarbonize such applications as power generation.”

This is so completely wrong that it’s remarkable that it made it into the document. First, there is no value in hydrogen as a generation technology. That’s a complete and utter non-starter beginning to end, making electricity vastly more expensive to no climate benefit. Secondly, all bolt-on flue capture programs for electrical generation have cost hundreds of millions or billions and failed. They increase the costs of electrical generation to the level where it was completely uncompetitive in today’s markets.

When wind and solar are trending to $20 per MWh, long-distance transmission of electricity using HVDC exists in lengths thousands of kilometers long and underwater around the world, and there are already 170 GW of grid storage and another 60 GW under construction at the bare beginning of the development of storage, assuming that either natural gas with CCS or hydrogen have any play in electrical generation makes it clear that the authors are simply starting with the assumption that natural gas and hydrogen have a major part to play in the future, and have created an argument for it.


The authors’ argument boils down to that in a perfect world, perfectly monitored and perfectly maintained, “blue” hydrogen would be similar in emissions to green hydrogen today, ignoring the rapidly dropping GHG emissions per MWh of renewables and ignoring that the world of fossil fuels in no way adheres to the premise of perfect monitoring and perfect maintenance.

The authors are performing a life-cycle assessment focusing on greenhouse gas emissions, and it is not scoped to include costs. Having reviewed the costs of the technologies that they are proposing for this hypothetical perfect “blue” hydrogen world, they are vastly higher than just not bothering, shifting to renewables rapidly and electrifying rapidly.

As a contribution to the literature on what will happen in the real world, this is a fairly slight addition, one which is being promoted far beyond its actual merit by the usual suspects.

Featured image by akitada31 from Pixabay

 

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Daily EV Recap: NJ signs law approving a punitive $250 new EV registration fee

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Listen to a recap of the top stories of the day from Electrek. Quick Charge is now available on Apple PodcastsSpotifyTuneIn and our RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players.

New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded Monday through Thursday and again on Saturday. Subscribe to our podcast in Apple Podcast or your favorite podcast player to guarantee new episodes are delivered as soon as they’re available.

Stories we discuss in this episode (with links):

‘Pro-EV’ New Jersey just OK’ed the US’s highest dumb EV fee

BYD says EVs have entered the ‘knockout round’ with next-gen tech rolling out

Ford drastically cuts workforce at F-150 Lightning EV plant amid ‘much slower’ demand

XPeng (XPEV) launches two EVs in Germany with plans to enter more EU nations later this year

Tesla starts using ‘Supervised Full Self-Driving’ language

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The first entirely US-made crystalline solar panels are coming to market

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The first entirely US-made crystalline solar panels are coming to market

All US-made solar panels featured only imported solar cells until now, but two US manufacturers just struck a three-year, $400 million deal. 

Canada-headquartered Heliene, which makes solar panels in Minnesota, will incorporate Georgia-based Suniva’s US-made monocrystalline silicon solar cells into its panels, and those “Made in the USA” panels will hit the market in mid-2024, thanks to a new three-year strategic sourcing contract between the two companies.

Heliene’s modules will be the first crystalline solar panels with US-made solar cells. Suniva says the catalyst for the pairing was solar project owners and developers wanting their projects to qualify for the 10% Domestic Content Bonus Investment Tax Credit. That’s achieved by using US-made cells based on the US Department of Treasury’s guidance published in May 2023 – and that’s in addition to the 30% IRA tax credit for renewable energy factories.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who visited Suniva’s Norcross, Georgia, factory yesterday, said, “Before this Administration, solar companies across the United States were struggling. Between 2016 and 2020, nearly 20% of solar manufacturing jobs were lost. Now, though there remain significant challenges, Inflation Reduction Act tax credits are helping change the game.”

Cristiano Amoruso, CEO of Suniva, said, “We are proud to fulfill our long-standing promise to bring back cell manufacturing to the United States at our Norcross facility.”

Read more: The US’s oldest solar factory filed for bankruptcy in 2017 – but now it’s back


If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.

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Porsche retires gas-powered Boxster and Cayman in the EU with all-electric model coming

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Porsche retires gas-powered Boxster and Cayman in the EU with all-electric model coming

The gas-powered Porsche 718 Boxster and Cayman models are being discontinued in Europe as an all-electric version approaches its debut.

Porsche retires gas-powered 718 Boxster, Cayman cars

After announcing plans to retire its best-selling SUV in Europe, the Macan, Porsche will do the same with its 718 Boxster and Cayman models.

Porsche retired the gas-powered Macan early due to new cybersecurity rules. Its availability ends in July 2024. The gas-powered 718 Boxster and Cayman are now set for the same fate.

In a statement to Auto Express, Porsche said as a result of the rule changes “sale of the 718 models with an internal combustion engine is discontinued in the EU and some states that apply EU legislation from now on, thereby ensuring that the vehicles can be delivered to customers and registered by the deadline.”

Porsche did note the 718 Cayman GT4 RS and 718 Spyder RS are not impacted “due to small series regulations.”

Porsche-Macan-EV-Turbo
Porsche Macan EV (left) and Turbo (right) versions (Source: Porsche AG)

Although the regulation applies to all vehicles (ICE and EV), Porsche is preparing to launch an all-electric 718 model. It’s not expected to have any issues with the new rules.

Like with the Macan, updating the gas-powered version would be too costly with an electric model rolling out anyways.

Porsche’s electric 718 is getting closer to production ahead of its debut. We got a sneak peek of the EV this week after it was spotted testing in the Arctic Circle rocking production headlights.

Porsche 718 EV testing (Source: CarSpyMedia)

The German automaker is expected to reveal the electric 718 model before the end of the year with deliveries kicking off in 2025. Porsche has already begun preparing its Zuffenhausen plant for the new EV.

Porsche CEO Oliver Blume confirmed plans to begin Macan EV deliveries later this year. Up next will be an electric 718 model followed by the long-awaited Cayenne EV.

Porsche-retires-Boxster
(Source: Porsche AG)

Porsche said it’s expanding “upward” with plans for an ultra-luxury electric SUV, slated to sit above the Cayenne. Blume called it “a very sporting interpretation of an SUV.”

Despite several automakers pulling back Porsche is sticking to its target of an 80% EV delivery share by 2030.

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