Barnwell: How Jon Gruden’s roster-building left the Raiders in terrible shape, and what’s next
As you’ve surely heard by now, the Las Vegas Raiders and Jon Gruden parted ways on Monday. It goes without saying that the emails uncovered as part of the NFL’s investigation into Daniel Snyder and the Washington Football Team were abhorrent and unbecoming of a leader. My colleagues have addressed Gruden’s firing, and what’s now left in the wake of his absence is a suddenly rudderless Raiders organization.
The franchise was rebuilt to Gruden’s specifications after he took over as coach and de-facto football czar in 2018, and while general manager Mike Mayock and the rest of the staff remain, there’s no doubt that things will change without him in charge. Special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia has been given the interim job, and team owner Mark Davis suggested Wednesday that the arrangement of power has moved from a split of 51% Gruden, 49% Mayock to 51% Mayock, 49% Bisaccia.
By the time we hit next offseason, the Raiders might be in a new arrangement altogether. As the only coach with a 10-year contract, the one sure thing for the organization seemed to be that Gruden would be in charge. Now, on the fly, everything is changing.
Let’s evaluate the lasting effects of Gruden’s second run with the Raiders in terms of player personnel and where Mayock and Bisaccia — or whomever takes over in 2022 — sit with the current roster. Gruden took over a 6-10 team that was one year removed from a 12-4 season and a trip to the postseason. The Raiders were 22-31 in Gruden’s second tenure, and I’m not sure they’re much closer to the postseason than they were before he was hired. Let’s see where the Raiders stand with 12 games to go this season.
Jump to a section:
The big trades | The draft record
Free-agency issues | The roster
What’s next? | Postmortem
Gruden’s big trades
Gruden’s most significant personnel moves came early in his run, as he tore apart the young core of former general manager Reggie McKenzie’s teams. With two trades, Gruden dealt away cornerstones on both sides of the football in edge rusher Khalil Mack and wide receiver Amari Cooper. In return, he netted four high draft picks, including three first-rounders. Those selections became running back Josh Jacobs, cornerback Damon Arnette, safety Johnathan Abram and wide receiver Bryan Edwards.
These moves set back the franchise significantly. Jacobs has struggled with injuries and doesn’t have a role in the passing game at a position in which two-down backs are readily available for the veterans minimum. Arnette was responsible for the coverage breakdown on Ryan Fitzpatrick’s big play at the end of the game in the crucial Week 16 loss to the Dolphins last season; he lost his starting job in camp and has been the subject of trade rumors. Abram missed all of his rookie season with an injury and was a mess in coverage in Year 2. He has been better this season, but his most notable moment has been getting stiff-armed by Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris. Edwards, the only one of the four not to be drafted in the first round, looks to be the most promising player among them.
Gruden repeatedly traded for veterans over the course of his tenure, and those moves almost universally failed. The most notable came when the team sent third- and fifth-round picks to the Steelers for receiver Antonio Brown, which failed in ignominious fashion before Brown ever suited up for the team.
I couldn’t fault the Raiders for that deal at the time, but Gruden’s other deals for wide receivers looked bad at first glance and got worse quickly. The Raiders sent a third-rounder to the Steelers for Martavis Bryant and then cut him at the end of camp. Defensive end Jihad Ward was shipped off for Ryan Switzer, who was then dealt away for a swap of late-round picks without having played for the team. The Raiders sent a fifth-rounder to the Bills for Zay Jones and a sixth-rounder to the Packers for Trevor Davis, who was cut after two and a half months. The Packers used that pick on Jon Runyan, who is now starting for Green Bay at guard.
Receiver wasn’t the only spot in which the Raiders traded picks for players with limited success. Gruden shipped a fifth-round pick to the Bills for quarterback AJ McCarron, who threw a total of three passes before leaving. The seventh-rounder Gruden sent the Jets for QB Christian Hackenberg was a conditional pick, thankfully. Last year, the Raiders swapped midround picks with the Dolphins to acquire linebacker Raekwon McMillan; he played a total of 169 defensive snaps before leaving the team. McMillan served as a special-teamer, but that’s the sort of player organizations should be able to find with the late-round picks Gruden was shipping away in failed swaps.
0:44
Booger McFarland shares his thoughts on the reports Jon Gruden is out as the Las Vegas Raiders’ head coach.
Gruden’s track record of trading up and down in the draft was more mixed. He had success trading down in his first draft to acquire offensive tackle Kolton Miller, Gruden’s most successful first-round pick. He also moved up for wide receiver Hunter Renfrow, but trades up for defensive tackle Maurice Hurst, edge rusher Arden Key and offensive lineman Brandon Parker weren’t successful. It’s difficult to look at Gruden’s track record of trading as much more than a brutal failure.
Gruden’s draft record
Gruden oversaw four drafts, which means that we should be seeing his picks make up the core of the existing Vegas team and the teams we’ll see over the next couple of seasons. Let’s take a look at the picks he made over the first three rounds of the 2018, 2019, and 2020 drafts:
2018:
2019:
2020:
We’ve already discussed some of these selections. Ferrell, the highest-drafted player of the Gruden era at No. 4 overall, was viewed as a significant overdraft at the time and hasn’t looked like an impact player at any point of his career. The former Clemson pass-rusher lost his starting job this offseason and was a healthy scratch in Week 1. He has played 18% of the defensive snaps this season. The next player selected in that first round was linebacker Devin White, who has become one of the league’s best players at his position for the Bucs.
The only first-rounder we haven’t discussed is Ruggs, who has flashed significant potential while struggling to command a significant target share. The hope is naturally that he takes a step forward in his second season, in which he’s on pace to rack up 1,113 receiving yards (although his average of 20.5 yards per reception will be tough to sustain). He was the first wideout taken in a draft that included CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman and Chase Claypool; he wouldn’t be the first wideout off the board in a redraft today.
It doesn’t get much better after the first round. Miller has been a solid tackle, but Parker was bad as a rookie and hasn’t been trusted as more than a swing tackle since. Hall and Key are no longer on the roster. Neither is Bowden, who was moved to a “Joker” role as a hybrid running back/wide receiver after being drafted. He was traded before ever playing with the Raiders, who sent him with a sixth-round pick to Miami for a fourth-round selection. Muse was also released without ever playing a snap for the Raiders. Two of the their three third-rounders from 2020 are no longer on their roster; of the other 39 players drafted, just one has been cut or traded (Jabari Zuniga of the Jets).
In all, while acknowledging that there’s plenty of time left on the clock for these young players, the only players the Raiders would take again at their same spots would probably be Miller, Mullen and Edwards. That’s a disaster for a team that had six first-round picks over this span.
It’s too early to say anything about the 2021 class, but as was the case with Ferrell and Jacobs, the Raiders used a first-round pick on offensive tackle Alex Leatherwood when most public resources pegged him as a midround selection. Leatherwood struggled enough at right tackle for the Raiders to move him to guard during the Week 5 loss to the Bears. Teams sometimes take prospects much higher than public perception and prove to be right, as the Cowboys did with center Travis Frederick in 2013. It’s too early to make any proclamations about Leatherwood, but if he doesn’t pan out, the Raiders will have repeatedly gone against the grain and been wrong about it every time.
The best pick Gruden made during his time in charge was likely someone taken outside the top 100: edge rusher Maxx Crosby, a 2019 fourth-round pick. The Eastern Michigan product racked up 10 sacks as a rookie, and while he has only two sacks in five games to start 2021, he has been a consistent disruptor and has 13 quarterback hits this season. Renfrow, taken a round later, has proven to be a valuable slot receiver. Those are nice finds, but the Raiders also used a fifth-round pick on a punter in Johnny Townsend, who lasted a season before being released.
1:30
Keyshawn Johnson looks back at his two years playing under Jon Gruden.
Naturally, it’s difficult to parse the responsibility for these selections between Gruden and Mayock, whose primary work over the prior decade had been as a draft analyst for NFL Network before joining the Raiders in 2019. Given how poorly the top picks have performed and how long Gruden had left on his contract, it’s entirely possible that Mayock would have been the fall guy for a disappointing 2021 season. Now, that’s no longer the case.
The easy answer is to say that they both deserve some of the blame, because it’s impossible to know why the selections are failing. Are the Raiders struggling to bring through young talent because they’re picking the wrong players? Or are they picking useful players and struggling to develop them into viable starters? There’s one reason to think that the latter might be the bigger problem with Vegas …
Gruden in free agency
… That reason? That just about every significant free agent who came to play for the Raiders looked much worse in silver and black than they had in their prior stop. Free agency isn’t the best way to build a roster, but it’s hard to think of a team that has gotten less out of its significant signings than the Raiders over the past several seasons. Here’s every free agent, with an average annual salary of $5 million or more, the Raiders added over the Gruden era, and what happened next:
2018:
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WR Jordy Nelson (two years, $14.2 million): cut after one season
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LB Tahir Whitehead (three years, $19 million): lost starting role in Year 2, cut
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CB Rashaan Melvin (one year, $5.5 million): started seven games
2019:
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OT Trent Brown (four years, $66 million): started 16 games over two seasons, salary dumped to NE
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WR Tyrell Williams (four years, $44.3 million): started one game over two seasons, cut
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S LaMarcus Joyner (Four years, $42 million): moved to CB, benched in Year 2, cut
2020:
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LB Cory Littleton (three years, $35.3 million): suffered drastic decline in play
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LB Nick Kwiatkoski (three years, $21 million): lost starting job after one season
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EDGE Carl Nassib (three years, $25.3 million): four sacks in 19 games
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QB Marcus Mariota (two years, $17.6 million): 28 pass attempts with LAR
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DT Maliek Collins (one year, $6 million): one QB hit in 504 snaps
2021:
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EDGE Yannick Ngakoue (Two years, $26 million): two sacks in five games
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RB Kenyan Drake (Two years, $11 million): playing almost exclusively as receiving back, averaging 2.4 yards per carry
That’s a brutal list, and it might even undersell how dramatically these players dropped off. Whitehead, Nelson and Littleton went from being excellent in their prior spots to wildly disappointing with the Raiders. Williams might have been unlucky with injuries — and Mariota hasn’t been needed very often behind Derek Carr — but the franchise has nobody but itself to blame with someone such as Joyner. The 2014 second-rounder had bounced around the Rams’ defense before settling at free safety, where he emerged as a star. The Raiders promptly signed him and moved him back to slot corner, where he struggled wildly for two season before being released.
On the other hand, the best move the team made during the Gruden era was a much less notable free-agent signing. After Darren Waller dealt with substance abuse and moved to tight end, the Raiders signed him off Baltimore’s practice squad in 2018. He emerged as one of the most exciting tight ends in all of football in 2019. They quickly moved to sign him to a four-year, $29.8 million deal that October. At that price tag, he is one of the league’s most valuable non-quarterbacks on a veteran deal.
Owing to the missing draft picks and the disappointing top-100 selections, the Raiders have needed to be active in signing veterans to short-term, low-cost deals in free agency. The vast majority of those contracts are one-year pacts. The Raiders might be happy with players such as Casey Hayward Jr., Solomon Thomas and K.J. Wright, and their contracts are reasonable, but they’re all free agents after the season.
What’s left on the roster
The Raiders have one of the league’s least impressive cores. A coach or a general manager looking to build the organization would be looking at Miller and Crosby as the only under-25 players on whom they can count as above-average starters. A second tier might include players who have shown some promise but haven’t been consistently impactful, such as Edwards, Ruggs and Mullen, plus anyone who emerges from the 2021 class, with fifth-round corner Nate Hobbs off to a promising start. Waller just turned 29, and Carr is 30. Both will be looking for new deals after the season. So will Jacobs and Renfrow, who are useful, albeit at positions in which it’s often easy to find useful players. The Raiders simply aren’t in the same universe in terms of core talent as the other teams in the AFC West.
They have been able to approach league-average play by staying efficient and effective on offense. Gruden’s best asset as a coach was getting the most out of his offensive talent, especially in the passing game. Carr’s best seasons came in 2019 and 2020. Waller went from being a practice-squad player to a superstar. Every team passed on Renfrow multiple times. Receiver Nelson Agholor was essentially a meme before producing a career season with the Raiders in 2020.
These guys aren’t going to suddenly turn into afterthoughts without Gruden around, and the defense has been much better in 2021 than it was across the first three years of his regime, but the final game of his tenure was an example of how this team would look if the offense isn’t up to its prior level of play. In a 20-9 defeat to the Bears, the Raiders were buried with subpar field position, didn’t have a single play produce 30 yards or more and scored nine points on 10 possessions. Vegas’ 3-0 start marked the third year in a row in which it has enjoyed a three-game winning streak at some point during the season, but after the past two-plus weeks, it feels like another lifetime.
What’s next for the Raiders
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Raiders a 31.7% chance to make the playoffs. Making it to the postseason would probably encourage Davis to stick with the combination of Mayock and Bisaccia into 2022. If they fall short, they would presumably look to hire another coach, although Mayock’s future in that scenario would be unclear. Former head coaches such as Gus Bradley, Tom Cable and Rod Marinelli are also on staff, so it’s possible the Raiders could decide to promote one of their other assistants into the head role, as the Browns did when they named Freddie Kitchens head coach ahead of interim coach Gregg Williams before the 2019 season.
I’m not sure this will be a particularly appealing job. Vegas will be an exciting destination for free agents, but the talent gap between the Raiders and the rest of the division is apparent. Davis has been willing to spend on talent, and he’ll be saving money by not paying the remaining $60 million or so left on Gruden’s deal.
At the same time, consider what happened before Gruden arrived. Former general manager McKenzie took over a team that was in horrific salary-cap shape and missing draft picks after years of disastrous decisions by Al Davis and months of poor choices from former coach Hue Jackson. McKenzie’s Raiders ate nearly $77 million in dead money over 2012 and 2013 and began to work their way back. After drafting Mack and Cooper, they jumped from 3-13 in 2014 to 7-9 in 2015 and 12-4 in 2016. Their record was inflated by an unsustainable performance in one-score games, but for a team that hadn’t been to the playoffs or posted a winning record since 2002, 12-4 is 12-4.
A year later, Davis got distracted by shiny things and fired coach Jack Del Rio after a disappointing season to give Gruden full control of football operations (McKenzie was let go in December 2018). That example is going to be in the back of anyone’s mind if they get approached by the organization. The next guy probably isn’t getting a 10-year deal.
What we learned
Gruden’s second act with the Raiders was an unqualified failure. Focusing solely on his work over the past few years, it was a failure in exactly the ways we would have expected based on his time in Tampa Bay. He did a solid job of running the offense and got just about everything else wrong. Virtually every one of his significant personnel decisions turned out to be a mistake. He dismantled the organization and turned the core he inherited into pennies on the dollar.
1:14
Stephen A. Smith believes Jon Gruden’s career is finished after reports of offensive emails he wrote over a 10-year period.
Organizations should learn from the tenures of Gruden and Jacksonville’s Urban Meyer, the other coach who was in the spotlight before Gruden resigned. Both would qualify as offensive minds with success in their past. They were each charismatic on television and capable of convincing ownership that they were single-handedly capable of turning around their fallen franchises. They were each given control of football operations despite the fact that Meyer has never been involved with pro personnel and Gruden’s track record as football czar in Tampa, Florida, was spotty at best.
If you’re hiring a coach, giving him complete control of football operations and resting the entire organization on his shoulders, you better make sure he’s up to the task. Even before the revelations of the past few days, it was clear that Gruden was not.
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Kyle Bonagura, ESPN Staff Writer
Moments after Colorado‘s once-promising season sputtered to a close with a 23-17 loss at Utah in November, coach Deion Sanders took about a minute to reflect on some of the positives his team showed in the game. Even with his son, star quarterback Shedeur Sanders, sidelined with an injury, he said the Buffs played well. But he also wasted no time turning the page. After a last-place Pac-12 finish in his debut season at Colorado, it made no sense to dwell on the team’s on-field performance.
“It’s time to start projecting and start thinking about the tomorrow already,” Sanders said.
With that, Sanders got back to doing what he has proven effective at: generating hype.
“We already know what’s going to transpire, you’re gonna be pleased with what’s coming. I promise you that,” Sanders said. “But everything you see that we have a lack thereof — a deficit — we’re gonna fill that need.”
As he did when he arrived, Sanders made it clear Colorado was, again, going to seek help in the transfer portal in the pursuit of one clear goal.
“We want to win now.”
Here’s a look at some of the most noteworthy moments of Colorado’s offseason as Coach Prime’s tenure remains one of the most captivating stories in all of sports.
Dec. 5: Sanders arrived to Colorado in late 2022 as a bona fide celebrity — one of the greatest athletes in American history — taking the reins at a downtrodden program. He leaned heavily into making Colorado as visible as possible. Everything, it seemed, was on camera.
But after a whole year of that constant visibility, it seemed to become a dynamic that wasn’t always positive, he told People Magazine.
“You always wish that you had a little more privacy,” he said, “but the same thing that makes you shine will show your blemishes.
“So you’ve got to take the good with the bad. You can’t just want everyone there when the hype machine is rolling, you have to understand there’s another side to this.”
Dec. 20: As Deion alluded to in the Utah press conference, Colorado had glaring holes it needed to fill and almost immediately took steps to shore up a porous offensive line that allowed Shedeur to become one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the country. Colorado welcomed 20 new players in the early transfer window, including six offensive lineman: OT Kahlil Benson, Indiana; OG Justin Mayers, UTEP; C Yakiri Walker, UConn; OG Tyler Johnson, Houston; OT Phillip Houston, FIU; including a big grab in five-star HS recruit OT Jordan Seaton.
In an interview with the Associated Press, Sanders said, “All these kids have been starters. They’re not backups. They weren’t lower-level players. They were starters in Power 5. And they know darn well they’ve got a first-round pick — maybe the first kid in the whole draft — that they’re protecting. That means something to them.”
Dec. 30: Shortly after getting through the early signing day, staff changes started. Defensive coordinator Charles Kelly left the program to serve as the co-defensive coordinator at Auburn, his alma mater. Kelly’s departure meant that both of Sanders’ initial coordinators would not be back for a second season. OC Sean Lewis, who was stripped of playcalling duties during the season, was hired as San Diego State‘s head coach.
Jan. 16: A little more than a year after Coach Prime delivered the famous line at his team meeting — “I’m bringing my luggage with me, and it’s Louis” — some of that proverbial luggage (his sons, Shilo and Shedeur) walked in an actual Louis Vuitton fashion show during Paris Men’s Fashion Week.
.@ShiloSanders and @ShedeurSanders walking in the @LouisVuitton Men’s Fall-Winter 2024 Show today 🔥#GoBuffs pic.twitter.com/n2R4G0i3TA
— Colorado Buffaloes Football (@CUBuffsFootball) January 16, 2024
Jan. 27: Not even two weeks later, a video was published by Well Off Media — the YouTube channel operated by the oldest Sanders son, Deion Jr. — with a headline: DEION SANDERS’ SONS ARE BUYING HIM A NEW HOME IN COLORADO. It shows the family touring an exquisite property roughly 18 miles from Folsom Field, outside of nearby Golden, Colorado.
Four months later, however, that property is still listed for sale by the listing agent.
Feb. 3: Professor Prime? At least for a day. Sanders served as a guest lecturer to talk about the football program’s social media strategy, among other topics, alongside Sanders Jr. — known better as Bucky — for a class called Prime Time: Public Performance and Leadership.
Feb. 9: Former Cincinnati Bengals secondary coach Robert Livingston was hired as the defensive coordinator and Pat Shurmur, who took over playcalling duties from Lewis, was confirmed as the permanent OC. Colorado also announced Phil Loadholt as the OL coach and Jason Phillips as the receivers coach.
Feb. 20: Smack in the middle of a recruiting dead period, Sanders was announced as an owner of the sports nutrition company REDCON1.
In a press release announcing the deal, the company said, “Coach Prime will drive REDCON1’s expansion directly, especially within the sports nutrition and performance beverage sectors. His creativity and expertise are derived from his personal experiences and success in sports, which will play a pivotal role in continued product innovation and enhancing the brand’s visibility.”
March 12: Sanders’ second book — “Elevate and Dominate: 21 Ways to Win On and Off the Field,” written with Don Yaeger — was released as an instant New York Times bestseller. It was accompanied by a four-stop book tour.
THIS WEEK‼️ELEVATE and DOMINATE: 21 WAYS TO WIN ON AND OFF THE FIELD. I’m excited to finally share this with u all and looking forward to meet everyone along these stops! #CoachPrime https://t.co/Q7J0GV53xD pic.twitter.com/h1PHh9RpgW
— COACH PRIME (@DeionSanders) March 10, 2024
April 1: Months after Sanders said it was going to happen, Hall of Fame defensive lineman Warren Sapp joined the program as a graduate assistant. Athletic director Rick George signed off on the hire, which drew criticism in light of Sapp’s past that saw him get fired by the NFL Network following his arrest for assaulting and soliciting a prostitute during Super Bowl weekend in 2015.
“Warren Sapp successfully completed all of the necessary steps required of anyone who is employed at CU Boulder, including a background check,” Colorado said in a statement. “Furthermore, athletic director Rick George personally met with Warren to clearly articulate the department’s standards and expectations, to which he acknowledged and agreed.”
April 10: Well Off Media took fans behind the scenes as Shedeur attended an in-person lecture for the first time.
During the video he jokingly said, “You know how long it’s been since I’ve been to an in-person class? Like five years.”
April 16: When the spring transfer portal window opened, several prominent players announced they would be leaving Colorado, including former five-star recruit Cormani McClain, lead rusher Dylan Edwards and two other backs, Alton McCaskill and Sy’veon Wilkerson.
April 20: On his YouTube channel, McClain took a pointed shot at the Colorado program.
“Some people just gotta take a step back from things sometimes, certain people, you know,” McClain said. “I feel like I just don’t want to play for clicks. I actually want to be involved with a great leading program that’s going to develop players.”
He would later transfer to Florida.
April 27: Colorado fans set a high bar when they sold out Folsom Field for the 2023 spring game and while this year’s version wasn’t quite the spectacle, it still drew a respectable crowd of 28,424 despite inclement weather. The game was part of a day that later featured a Lil Wayne concert.
May 1: After a story in The Athletic was published that detailed how former Buffaloes players fared after many were run off following the arrival of Sanders, a series of back-and-forth trash talk ensued, including tweets from Shedeur and Deion.
The coach took aim at one relatively anonymous FCS player from Austin Peay.
Lawd Jesus https://t.co/WVIBSUE14X
— COACH PRIME (@DeionSanders) May 1, 2024
He later told Thee Pregame Show, “I gotta do better on that and not ride with it, but I was bored. I was bored, and I didn’t say nothing hurtful. I don’t attack people.”
May 8: As Shedeur preps for an important final season of college football in which he’s in the conversation to be one of the first quarterbacks taken in next spring’s NFL draft, he also found time to drop his first song, “Perfect Timing.”
May 16: Two-way star Travis Hunter was revealed as one of the three cover stars, alongside Michigan‘s Donovan Edwards and Texas‘ Quinn Ewers, for the rebirth of EA Sports College Football 25.
— EASPORTSCollege (@EASPORTSCollege) May 16, 2024
May 20: The Coach Prime effect continues to pay off for Colorado’s ticket department. For the second straight year, the Buffs have sold out their season tickets, something the school had not done since 1996. And prior to 2023, the school had never sold out its season tickets before August.
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
Sixteen NHL teams qualified for the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs. But with two rounds complete, the field is down to the final four competitors.
Each team brings a unique set of narratives to the conference finals round — both on and off the ice.
Here’s everything you need to know about the New York Rangers, Florida Panthers, Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers.
How they got here: Defeated Lightning 4-1, Bruins 4-2
Playoff takeaways
Goalie confidence rating: 8/10
Sergei Bobrovsky has improved throughout the playoffs. That’s excellent news for Florida as it faces perhaps its toughest offensive challenge yet in the high-flying, high-scoring New York Rangers.
The Panthers’ netminder is a solid 8-3 in the postseason, with a .902 save percentage and 2.37 goals-against average. Bobrovsky was fine in the first round but hit a real stride in the second round. The Bruins didn’t test Bobrovsky often, and he had to be sharp when they did; for the most part, he has come through when Florida has needed him.
Bobrovsky’s 22-save performance in Game 6 to close out Boston was some of his finest work, which should have him feeling in tip-top shape ahead of this conference finals bout.
What we’ve learned about the Panthers so far
Florida is impressively multifaceted, and there isn’t one area where the Panthers are truly deficient. They’ve averaged the most goals per game among Eastern Conference playoff teams (3.55), they are stingy defensively (allowing 2.45 goals per game and only 24.1 shots on net) and they have solid special teams (with a 22% power play and 86.1% penalty kill).
Most importantly, though, Florida is balanced. The Panthers’ stars have contributed as expected, with Carter Verhaeghe (six goals and 11 points), Matthew Tkachuk (four goals and 14 points) and Aleksander Barkov (five goals and 13 points) excelling. Florida’s depth skaters have made their mark, from Evan Rodrigues (three goals and six points) to Anton Lundell (two goals and nine points). The Panthers have benefitted from timely scoring from the back end, too — Gustav Forsling netting the game-winner in Game 6 against Boston was especially notable — and Brandon Montour (three goals and eight points) has been superb.
The Panthers have enviable depth and an all-around game on which to lean.
Players who will be key to this series
New York is the Eastern Conference’s second-highest-scoring offense in the postseason (averaging 3.50 goals per game), right behind Florida, so Bobrovsky being at his best is critical for the Panthers. Bobrovsky wasn’t overly taxed by Boston (a difficulty because most goalies prefer a busier workload), and the Rangers project to do the exact opposite by peppering the Panthers’ goalie at 5-on-5 and with their excellent power play.
Matching New York’s potential attack falls on the Panthers’ top-six skaters, but Tkachuk and Sam Bennett should be particularly engaged with their grittiness to get under the Rangers’ skin. Florida doesn’t want to be in a track meet opposite a lineup like New York’s, and setting a tone with some physicality and pressure — while holding the Rangers to the outside and away from those juicy rush chances — is an ideal recipe for Florida to follow. New York isn’t throwing many hits in the postseason (13th overall in that category) so the Panthers can use their feistier forwards to their advantage.
Player who needs to step up
Make no mistake, Sam Reinhart has been solid in the playoffs, with five goals and nine points through 11 games. But this is a series where he can shine. Reinhart had a tremendous regular season, scoring 57 goals and 94 points (including four goals in the regular-season series against New York). He just hasn’t been lighting up the scoresheet as often in the playoffs, with only two goals in six games against Boston (and one four-assist performance).
It just feels like there’s more Reinhart can give, particularly on special teams, where he has just two points. The margins for victory become smaller the deeper a team goes, and Reinhart has the ability to break things open for Florida. The Rangers have been heavily star-driven in the playoffs, and it’s how they’ve arrived in the conference finals. Florida’s depth has been a significant asset, but at this juncture, a true standout like Reinhart can make the series-defining difference.
Can Florida’s power play match New York’s?
The Panthers didn’t have consistent success against Boston’s terrific penalty kill (minus a four-goal outburst with the man advantage in Game 3). Florida was 0-for-7 with the extra man in Games 5 and 6, two contests decided by a single goal. Meanwhile, New York’s power play has been a decisive factor in its success throughout the playoffs, and it has gotten the Rangers through some tightly contested battles.
Florida can’t afford to let many power-play opportunities slip away.That won’t be easy, given the Rangers’ penalty kill is excellent at 89.5%. There’s little doubt Florida has the talent to make more noise on the man advantage, with seven players scoring there so far — it’s just a matter of breaking through New York’s defenses.
If the Panthers can put some doubt in the Rangers on that front early in the series, it would be a confidence-booster. If Florida can’t, there will be nail-biting outcomes in the future.
How they got here: Defeated Capitals 4-0, Hurricanes 4-2
Playoff takeaways
Goalie confidence rating: 9.5/10
Igor Shesterkin is arguably New York’s postseason MVP. The Rangers’ netminder has the playoff field’s best record (8-2), a .923 SV% and a 2.40 GAA. At almost no point has New York had to make up for errors on his end.
Shesterkin has been an absolute difference-maker for the Rangers — that brilliant stop on Andrei Svechnikov in the waning minutes of Game 6 of their second-round series against Carolina was a jaw-dropper — and he has been markedly consistent, with a .910 or better SV% in 80% of the Rangers’ postseason games.
It’s no exaggeration to say the Rangers’ hopes of reaching a Stanley Cup Final — and winning it all — hinge heavily on Shesterkin continuing to be the Vezina Trophy-caliber goaltender he has been since the first round began.
What we’ve learned about the Rangers so far
The Rangers haven’t strayed much from what made them this season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners. New York boasts an elite power play (at 31.4%) that almost overcompensates for their average 5-on-5 scoring (they have just 20 even-strength goals through 10 postseason games).
New York’s overall success has come through its top talents, from Shesterkin’s goaltending to elite performances from Mika Zibanejad (three goals and 14 points), Vincent Trocheck (six goals and 14 points) and Chris Kreider (seven goals and 10 points). The Rangers haven’t relied on their depth to make a difference, and while that hasn’t hurt them (much) to date, it is something they could look to improve on against Florida.
Defensively, New York doesn’t make it easy on Shesterkin — the Rangers allow 32.5 shots on net per game — but they shouldn’t take their goaltending for granted. The Panthers can quickly make them pay for any sloppiness.
Players who will be key to this series
Shesterkin is essential to New York’s hopes of getting past Florida. Yes, the Panthers have also leaned on their goaltending at times, but Shesterkin is an intimidating presence in the crease and provides the confidence New York needs to play the back-and-forth style that leads to those open scoring opportunities (but also makes the Rangers vulnerable defensively).
Beyond Shesterkin, this is a series where Trocheck can continue to have a major impact. He has been the Rangers’ most productive skater on the power play (with eight points), and they will continue to rely on that potent man-advantage unit to carry them through another round. Trocheck has also been one of New York’s stronger contributors at 5-on-5; helping bolster the Rangers there will be critical, especially when the series inevitably gets tighter.
Player who needs to step up
Artemi Panarin cooled off in the second round after a dominant start to the postseason. There’s no time like the present for Panarin to turn those jets back on (so to speak).
Panarin has zero goals and two assists in New York’s past three games, but he also leads the Rangers overall in playoff game-winners (four). His 11 total points show he is more than capable of avenging his past postseason demons (just two assists in seven games last year) by keeping his incredible regular-season showing (49 goals and 120 points) at the forefront of this playoff push.
While the second round saw Panarin in a lull of sorts, he can make up for lost time in this series. Florida’s lineup is packed with scoring potential, and New York’s ability to match it will determine who advances. Panarin should be ready to answer that bell.
Can New York’s defense hold up — and lock down?
Fun fact: Carolina outshot the Rangers in all six of their second-round games. Washington outshot New York in two of their four first-round games. Despite a solid group of blueliners, New York has been channeling some “fake it till you make it” energy on the back end (and Shesterkin playing lights-out is a big reason that hasn’t ruined the Rangers’ playoff run).
Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren have faced New York’s hardest postseason matchups while being outshot 72-53 but not outscored (the Rangers have a goal edge of 4-3) at even strength. But that’s a delicate tightrope to walk; New York could be one bad game from Shesterkin away from losing their handle on a series.
Improving defensively falls not only on the Rangers’ blueliners but their forwards as well. Run-and-gun might suffice in the regular season, and having a potent power play is great. Full-team buy-in is better, and that’s the question mark for New York heading into the conference finals. Can the Rangers do the little things well enough that the big ones fall more easily into place?
How they got here: Defeated Golden Knights 4-3, Avalanche 4-2
Playoff takeaways
Goalie confidence rating: 10/10
Jake Oettinger has done more than just help the Stars reach the conference finals. He’s presenting one of the stronger Conn Smythe cases this postseason.
Back in the 2022 playoffs, the Stars were ousted in the first round, but Oettinger was arguably the biggest reason they pushed the series to seven games. His performances created the belief that if the Stars could somehow bolster their roster, they might be able to pose a serious problem. That time has arrived, and Oettinger has played a significant role.
What we’ve learned about the Stars so far
They might be the most adaptable team in this year’s playoffs. Face the defending Stanley Cup champs in the first round? Spot them a 2-0 series lead, playing into a narrative in which Dallas had lost nine of 11 meetings? No problem. Advance to the second round and build a three-goal lead in Game 1, only to give up four unanswered in overtime? Yeah, the Stars found a way to overcome that too.
The Stars have faced the two most recent Cup champions — whose rosters featured All-Stars such as Jack Eichel, Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Alex Pietrangelo — and still won. Now they’re going against Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. If they need to take on some of the NHL’s best players to prove they are the NHL’s best team, so be it.
Player who will be key to this series
Miro Heiskanen is averaging more than 28 minutes per game, with some of his performances going longer than the run time of a sitcom. He leads his team in points. He’s at the controls of a power play that is scoring nearly 30% of the time. The years of trust he has gained allow him to be matched up against some of the NHL’s best players on a nightly basis. And he is only 24.
Ever since Heiskanen debuted in the 2018-19 season, the discussion centered on how high his ceiling would be if he ever found a level of offensive consistency that could come anywhere close to matching what he does on the defensive end. What he did in the 2022-23 season provided a glimpse. What he has done during the 2024 playoffs could land the Stars a Stanley Cup.
Player who needs to step up
Joe Pavelski ranks 37th in career playoff points, and he has 74 goals in 195 postseason contests. That’s what makes the fact that he has one goal and three points in 13 games this year so jarring.
Pavelski plays the sort of game that’s built to succeed, in that he relies on his intelligence and positioning to either get goals or be in a place that allows his teammates to get goals. His defensive contributions have played a part in why he’s averaging more than 18 minutes per game. But if Pavelski can start generating more on the scoresheet, it would make an already deep Stars attack even deeper.
Will it be five the hard way or the joy of six for the Stars on the back end?
The success of their five-player defensive structure — coupled with Oettinger being in goal — has allowed goal prevention to be a key facet of the Stars’ success. But as they get further along, can they continue to largely play five defensemen instead of six?
Prior to Game 6 against the Avalanche, the Stars relied heavily on Thomas Harley, Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter, Chris Tanev and Heiskanen, while Nils Lundkvist averaged 4:27 in ice time in 12 games. The Stars turned to veteran Alex Petrovic, who logged more than 16 minutes in their double-overtime win. Even if part of Petrovic’s workload increased because of overtime, it’s still more ice time than what Lundkvist has received at any point in these playoffs. The last time Lundkvist received more than 16 minutes in a single game came back in January.
The Oilers will certainly make the Stars work on defense. Dallas’ blue-line rotation will be a critical strategic point to watch as the series gets rolling.
How they got here: Defeated Kings 4-1, Canucks 4-3
Playoff takeaways
Goalie confidence rating: 8/10
For every setback, there has been a comeback. That has been the narrative surrounding Stuart Skinner throughout his professional career. It also describes how he managed to come back from being pulled in Game 3 of the Oilers’ second-round series and benched in Games 4 and 5 before returning to help the Oilers close out the series.
What Skinner provided in those final two games was a goaltender who stopped shots within an Oilers defensive framework that takes away scoring chances and high-danger shots, whether it’s in 5-on-5 sequences or in short-handed situations. If the Oilers can get that version of Skinner against the Stars, it could see them take the next step toward reaching their ultimate destination.
What we’ve learned about the Oilers so far
Goal prevention is just as much a priority for the Oilers as goal creation. One of the looming questions facing the Oilers over the past few years was whether they could find consistency within their defensive structure. It’s a question they have continually answered since they moved on from Jay Woodcroft and hired Kris Knoblauch as head coach, which led to the addition of Hall of Fame defenseman Paul Coffey to the Oilers’ coaching staff. The arrival of Knoblauch and Coffey has since turned the Oilers into a team that can both create and solve problems in either end of the ice.
Maybe the strongest example of that progress has come during the playoffs. In the first round, the Kings went from scoring nine goals in the first two games to scoring a total of four goals over the next three. The same applies to the Canucks, who went from scoring 11 goals in the first three games to eight goals for the final four games of the series.
Player who will be key to this series
There are several reasons to highlight Leon Draisaitl when it comes to why this could be the Oilers’ year to win the Cup. One of them came in the final minutes of Game 7, when Draisaitl was one of the Oilers’ most active players on the defensive end. His investment into being aggressive on the forecheck played a part in Canucks’ struggles to get settled in an attempt to find a game-tying goal. Draisaitl’s stick was constantly moving to disrupt passes or provide some sort of additional obstacle.
So much can be said about his defensive abilities before getting to the fact that he’s one of the game’s most dangerous players on the offensive end — he leads all playoff scorers, with 24 points in 12 games — reinforcing why he might be the most important Oiler, if not the most important player in this series.
Player who needs to step up
Dylan Holloway has used the past few games to show that he is making an impact. He started Game 7 on the second line and has recorded a goal and two points over his past two games.
Receiving those sorts of contributions from Holloway is key for a couple reasons. It stems from the expectation of being a first-round pick in an organization that has found success with others taken in the opening round. The Oilers must also find ways to get as much secondary and tertiary offense as possible. In a big series (and potentially a Stanley Cup Final), Holloway can take positive career strides as the Oilers make a push to stay among the top Cup contenders.
What happens if Connor McDavid starts consistently scoring again?
It’s not like McDavid hasn’t been busy. He has created goals for others while anchoring the Oilers’ top line and also driving a power-play unit that at one point was converting at a rate of 50% this postseason. This is what makes McDavid a perpetual threat who requires everyone’s attention.
But the fact that he’s scored only two goals through 12 postseason games raises two questions: What does it say that the Oilers can get this far without needing McDavid to score in bunches? And how terrifying could the Oilers be if McDavid starts consistently scoring again and continues to create for those around him?
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