Afghanistan’s economy could shrink by 30% following Taliban takeover, IMF says

Published

3 years ago

October 19, 2021

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Afghanistan’s gross domestic product could see a contraction of up to 30% following the Taliban takeover, the IMF said in its latest regional economic report.

Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia department, said the country’s situation was deteriorating, even before Kabul fell.

“They were facing more than one shock — drought, Covid,” he told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble. “Therefore, what we foresee and fear is a sharp contraction.”

The report also noted that non-humanitarian aid has been halted, foreign assets mostly frozen and Afghan banks have been crippled by cash shortages after the Taliban returned to power.

“These shocks could cause a 20–30 percent output contraction, with falling imports, a depreciating Afghani, and accelerating inflation,” the report said. “The resulting drop in living standards threatens to push millions into poverty and could lead to a humanitarian crisis.”

TOPSHOT – A man carries shrubs on a wheelbarrow in Injil district of Herat Province, Afghanistan on October 18, 2021.

Hoshang Hashimi HASHIMI | AFP | Getty Images

Additionally, “the turmoil is fueling a surge in Afghan refugees” that could burden public resources in refugee-hosting countries, pressure the labor market and create social tensions, the IMF said, highlighting the need for assistance from the international community.

The G-20 last week pledged to help tackle the crisis in Afghanistan.

Azour said the IMF welcomes the international community’s scaled-up humanitarian aid, and said there should be a focus on education and health services.

Economic outlook

The International Monetary Fund also incrementally raised its outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region.

It expects real GDP to grow 4.1% in 2021 and 2022, up 0.1 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points respectively from its April projection.

In the Caucasus and Central Asia, real GDP is expected to grow 4.3% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022.

But the recoveries remain “divergent” and will be shaped by several factors including Covid-19 vaccination rates and high oil prices, the IMF predicts.

“Not all countries are growing at the same speed, and issues are still looming on the horizon,” said Azour.

Affluent countries in the region have been able to speedily vaccinate their populations against Covid, while lower-income nations have faced “delayed and uneven” deliveries of vaccines.

Those that have higher vaccination rates will be more resilient to the emergence of new variants, the report said.

“We will not see good level of vaccination before mid 2022, which will also hurt the regional growth altogether,” Azour said.

He also said oil prices will benefit exporters but increase inflation, which will hurt low-income earners.

U.S. crude futures were up 0.7% at $83.02 per barrel, while Brent crude futures gained 0.56% to trade at $84.80 per barrel on Tuesday afternoon in Asia.

Environment

JPMorgan’s calls for a reality check on energy transition are sensible, UAE energy minister says

Published

8 hours ago

April 29, 2024

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JPMorgan’s calls for a reality check on energy transition are sensible, UAE energy minister says

UAE energy minister on JPMorgan urging the need for a 'reality check' on the energy transition

JPMorgan’s calls for a “reality check” on the world’s energy transition goals and pathway is a “sensible,” the UAE’s energy minister told CNBC.

“We need always, whenever we put up predictions, especially long term ones, to have a reality check,” Suhail Al Mazrouei told CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.

In a recent note to client, JPMorgan warned that the world needed a “reality check” on its efforts to move from fossil fuels to renewables, pointing out that it could take “generations” to reach net-zero targets.

Higher interest rates, inflation and the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are setting back efforts to reduce the use of fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas, the report said.

“I think it’s a very sensible article,” said Al Mazrouei. The minister, however, highlighted that the circumstances and financial capabilities of each country on undertaking the energy transition goals will vary.

The world is not the same… Some can afford it. They worked on fiscal changes, they adjusted their energy costs. Others have not.

Suhail Al Mazrouei

UAE’s Minister of Energy

“The world is not the same … Some can afford it. They worked on fiscal changes, they adjusted their energy costs. Others have not, [they] cannot afford to do it,” he added.

The world’s governments agreed in the 2015 Paris climate accord to limit global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C. To do that, emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.

A higher interest rate environment is also making it costlier for the world to transition to a net zero global economy, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a recent note.

Higher interest rates disproportionately affect renewables and nuclear power, said Peter Martin, Wood Mackenzie’s head of economics, adding that high capital intensity and low returns mean future projects will be at risk.

“The higher cost of borrowing negatively affects renewables and nascent technologies, compared to more established oil and gas, and metals and mining sectors, which remain somewhat insulated,” he said.

Just this month, Scotland’s government scrapped its 2030 climate target, with its Net Zero Minister Mairi McAllan saying the goal is “out of reach.”

She added that “severe budgetary restrictions imposed by the UK government” had a part to play in the retreat. The country had pledged to pare back emissions of greenhouse gases by 75% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.

Major oil companies such as BP and Shell also trimmed back on climate targets this year.

The UAE is one of the countries that signed up to triple the world’s capacity for nuclear energy by the year 2050.

Environment

RIZON class 4 and 5 electric MD trucks arrive in Canada

Published

17 hours ago

April 28, 2024

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RIZON class 4 and 5 electric MD trucks arrive in Canada

RIZON Truck Enters Canadian Market with its Groundbreaking Electric Class 4 and 5 Vehicles

Daimler’s new, all-electric truck brand made its Canadian debut this week with the official market launch of its battery electric class 4 and 5 medium duty work trucks.

After making its North American debut at the 2023 ACT Expo in Anaheim, California, Daimler Truck’s RIZON brand has continued on a steady march towards production with initial preorders set to open this June. But it won’t just be Americans who can order a new RIZON electric box truck – Canadians will be able to add them to their fleets at the same time.

“Canada is very advanced regarding green energy and infrastructure and is a natural next step for RIZON’s second market,” explains Andreas Deuschle, the Global Head of RIZON. “We are very happy to bring our zero-emission solution to Canadian customers. They are proven OEM trucks with the latest technology from Daimler Truck.”

Modernism and mandates

RIZON electric truck interior; via Daimler Truck.

Along with California and a handful of other US states, the Canadian government has plans to limit (or outright ban) the use of diesel trucks on its roads. In the case of Canada, the nation has committed to a zero emissions goal by 2050 – but Daimler could have gotten there without launching a new brand.

So, why is Daimler launching a new brand?

RIZON is about reaching new customers with a chassis that’s been designed from the ground-up to be an EV. These customers might be new to Daimler, or looking to replace an aging fleet of Isuzu or (more likely) Mitsubishi Fuso cabovers with something a little more modern.

What they’ll find in a RIZON, then, is a smooth, quiet, and car-like ride that will make the “step up” from something like a Ford E-Transit easier than they might think.

Our own Jameson Dow got to drive a RIZON e18L model at an event hosted by Velocity Truck Centers at Irwindale Speedway last year, and came away impressed with the truck’s smooth acceleration and adjustable regenerative braking.

RIZON will offer four model variants for Canadian customers, the e16L, e16M, e18L, and the e18M, with a range of configurations and options ranging from 7.25 to 8.55 ton GVWRs.

Electrek’s Take

There’s definitely a place in the North American market for an agile, easy-to-drive medium duty truck like the RIZON, and Daimler’s nationwide network of Freightliner and Western Star dealers should give first time MD buyers a bit more peach of mind than they might get from a startup brand.

You can check out the specs on each of the RIZON electric models, below, then let us know what you think of these new cabover EVs in the comments.

FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.

Environment

777 hp electric overland concept from Italdesign bows in Beijing [video]

Published

17 hours ago

April 28, 2024

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777 hp electric overland concept from Italdesign bows in Beijing [video]

Italdesign Quintessenza Is A Piece Of Italian Overlanding Art

The all-new, all-electric Italdesign Quintessenza concept is a high-tech Italian take on the Porsche Dakar concept that’s just begging to be put into production.

Making its debut at the Beijing Auto Show, the Italdesign Quintessenza concept embodies both the dynamic prowess of a GT and the versatile adaptability of a pick-up truck. At least, that’s what its makers say. And, if your idea of a pickup truck leans more towards “Subaru Brat” than “Ford F-150 Lightning,” that’s probably right!

The rear section of the Quintessenza converts from a “hatchback” to an open “pickup” bed in true Brat fashion. The rear seats are designed to flip 180-degrees backwards, providing a rear-facing, panoramic “stargazing” mode that promises, “(the) experience and feeling of connection with nature and the outside world.”

Stargazing mode

In its more conventional GT “mode,” the Quintessenza is arguably the best-looking Italdesign concept to come out in years, with vertical lighting elements up front and aggressively-sculpted rear haunches that this writer thinks would be a natural for Audi.

Those design elements aren’t just aesthetic – they’re loaded with electronics. “Two aerodynamic fins that integrate the ADAS systems are present on the upper back of the roof, at the level of the C-pillars,” reads the official release. “They map the surrounding environment when the satellite signal is poor, and offer multifunction lights indicating the car’s driving mode and braking when the hard top is removed.”

Quintessenza vertical elements

So, what kind of vehicle is the Italdesign Quintessenza? Is it a true overland GT, in the style of the Porsche Dakar or 911 SC/RS (the rally car that became the 959)? Is it a high-end spin on the classic Subaru Brat? A futuristic Ute for traversing the Australian outback? Or is it something else entirely?

That’s above our pay grades – but you, dear readers? You guys know what’s up, so check out the official Quintessenza launch video (below), then let us know what you think of Italdesign’s latest in the comments section at the bottom of the page.