How Rule 48 completely changed the NHL’s trajectory
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adminThe NHL logo spun around before locking into place, with a sound effect reminiscent of a cell door locking. The next image on the video was that of the new sheriff in town.
“I’m Brendan Shanahan, the National Hockey League’s senior vice president of player safety …”
Shanahan was 42 years old in 2011. He had retired from a Hall of Fame career two years earlier, taking a job with the NHL. In June 2011, he helped create the league’s first Department of Player Safety. It wouldn’t just hand out suspensions to players but, in a revolutionary move, would show its work through explanatory videos like this one.
“Friday night in Minnesota, an incident occurred in a game between the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Minnesota Wild …”
As the video showed, defenseman James Wisniewski of the Blue Jackets delivered a high hit on Wild forward Cal Clutterbuck after the horn sounded to end the period in a preseason game on Sept. 24, 2011. The hit was late, intentional and from a repeat offender. But Shanahan noted something else about the hit: Wisniewski had violated Rule 48.1 for an illegal check to the head, a recently added regulation.
Wisniewski was suspended for 12 games. The rest of the league was on notice. Targeting the head-on checks would no longer be tolerated.
“If you’re a great player with great timing, you could still deliver great hits. But targeting the head was something that people wanted out of the game,” Shanahan told ESPN recently, 10 seasons after the Department of Player Safety’s debut.
“It was a hard job and it was thankless. As much as we were getting criticized, we tried to always remember that we were going to make the game safer and make it better.”
Rule 48 still had that fresh-rule smell in 2011. Shanahan’s suspension video was one of the first the department created. It was the first time he used phrases such as “the head is targeted,” “principal point of contact” and “prior history of discipline.”
It would not be the last.
From 2011-12 through 2020-21, there were 80 suspensions for hits that violated Rule 48 in the preseason, regular season and playoffs. It’s the rule on which the Department of Player Safety was built. It’s a rule that was created in an effort to reduce the number of concussions in the league, and one that fundamentally changed the way the game was played in the NHL over the past decade.
“What was borderline before that has become clear that it’s not acceptable in the game. I think the respect factor has grown,” Tampa Bay Lightning captain Steven Stamkos said. “We’ve seen some of the harsher suspensions put in place. I don’t think there’s as much of a gray area for players. We know there are punishments.”
Here’s the story on how the rule came to be, what its impact has been in its first 10 seasons and what comes next.
The impact
George Parros, the current head of the Department of Player Safety, was a winger with the Anaheim Ducks when Rule 48 was introduced. He doesn’t remember it affecting the way he played.
“The only thing I remember was the video that Shanahan and [NHLPA executive] Mathieu Schneider put out and we had to watch it in the locker room. It was kind of funny, to be honest. They were both pretty stiff,” he said.
Parros has led the department since September 2017. In 2017-18, the NHL had only one suspension for an illegal check to the head in the regular season, the lowest total in seven years.
“I feel we’ve fine-tuned the game to a great degree,” Parros said. “A lot of the hits we see are because the game is so fast. Every once in a while, we see something with some intention behind it, but very rarely.”
The number of suspensions has fluctuated since then. It jumped back up to eight regular-season bans in 2018-19, and 12 in total. The biggest season for illegal check to the head suspensions was 2013-14, with 15 in total. The lowest total was four in 2019-20, a season shortened by the COVID pandemic whose playoffs were held inside spectator-free bubbles.
According to Icy Data, which tracks NHL penalties by type, the Ottawa Senators had the most minor penalties for checks to the head from 2010 to ’20 with 34, followed by the Boston Bruins (33) and the Lightning (26).
“We watch over a thousand clips a year in our department. About 150 of those would involve head contact,” Parros said. “If we suspend five or six times a year for an illegal check to the head … you can imagine how many were fine, and how many were in that gray area of what we’re trying to define here.”
Rule 48 has been the basis for several of the NHL’s most significant suspensions, including:
Rule 48 has impacted how penalties are enforced, how suspensions are handed out and how players deliver body checks. Shanahan believes it may have even opened up the game offensively.
“When I watch games now, I see players cutting across the high slot and taking shots on goal, and you don’t see players zeroing in to hit them,” he said. “It’s not necessarily about the rule. It’s because the players wanted that hit out of the game.”
But Stamkos disagreed that enforcement of illegal hits to the head led to braver players in the slot.
“I don’t think that it’s affected guys taking ice in the middle,” he said. “You never think about a guy elbowing you in the head. It just happens.”
There was a time when that would happen with no recourse from the NHL. For decades, hits that targeted the head would end up on VHS highlight tapes rather than in a hearing room. A ban on hits to the head seemed like an improbable suggestion.
“There were probably many reasons for that,” Parros said. “But there are two that I consider most significant: First, our awareness and understanding of the effects of concussions was really accelerating at that time — similar to other sports’ — to such an extent that it adjusted the thinking about such hits in a game, in which the puck-carrier normally is bent forward, somewhat leading with his head.
“Second, any such ban would have been a major change, since all of the people in the NHL at that point had been raised and taught how to hit a certain way. They’d be required to change on a dime, into thinking that what they were doing for 25 years is now illegal.”
Despite those challenges, a movement to ban checks to the head picked up momentum at the end of 2009.
As one NHL source put it: “The David Booth one was so, so horrifying that it really stopped everyone in their tracks.”
The David Booth hit
There are two hits from the 2009-10 season that paved the way to Rule 48. In both cases, the hockey world wanted massive suspensions that the NHL felt its rulebook didn’t support.
The first was delivered on Oct. 24, 2009. The Philadelphia Flyers were hosting the Florida Panthers. David Booth, the Panthers’ leading goal scorer in the previous season, was carrying a puck through the Flyers’ offensive zone. Mike Richards of the Flyers cut across on a backcheck and delivered a hit to Booth’s head. The Panthers forward fell, banging his head on the ice before falling limp. A stretcher was quickly wheeled out onto the rink.
Booth doesn’t remember the hit, nor does he remember his time in the hospital. The recollection seared into his memory is that of waking up in the ambulance that took him from the arena and feeling an overwhelming rush of panic. He didn’t know where he was. His legs and chest were strapped down. He grabbed his team trainer by the collar of his shirt, screaming to get him out of there.
“It was like I was possessed. I was trying to break the seat belts,” Booth told ESPN recently.
He has seen the hit since then, more than a few times. People will cue it up on their phones, play it for him and ask, macabrely, “This you?”
Richards was given a five-minute major for interference and a game misconduct by the on-ice officials. Booth was released from the hospital after one day. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that he “suffered a concussion but no other serious injuries.”
Booth would play six more seasons in the NHL and nine more professionally. But he was never the same after the hit, by his own admission. There were cognitive issues. There was also a nagging hesitancy in his game that never really left due to the devastating nature of the hit.
“It’s human nature to feel like the victim. That something happened that I didn’t deserve to have happen. I think that’s the easy way out, to say it’s Mike’s fault or the league’s fault,” Booth said. “That’s something I want to stay away from. It happened, and it’s unfortunate and it changed the course of my career.”
The incident also changed the conversation in the NHL. There was outrage from the hockey world, seeking supplemental disciplinary justice against Richards. But the hockey operations department, under Colin Campbell, determined that the hit wasn’t punishable under the current rules. For the first time, there was real momentum for a rule change at the November 2009 NHL general managers meetings, which took place soon after the Richards hit.
There had been some conversation about a crackdown on checks to the head through the years. But in many cases, there was nothing on the books that outlawed head contact, so the hits went without supplemental discipline. There were also general managers who would support more penalties for hits to the head. Jim Rutherford, the longtime GM for the Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins, was an advocate for a total ban on head contact.
What had fundamentally changed about the game, as was evident from the Richards hit, was that defensive players were backchecking harder than they ever had before.
“Back pressure? You never heard of that before,” recalled Ray Shero, who was general manager of the Penguins when the head-shot conversations started. “It was obviously becoming a part of the game, and there wasn’t a lot of time and space [to avoid hits].”
Shero was an advocate for making checks to an opponent’s head illegal.
“I never liked those sorts of hits. It’s part not of the game,” he said.
Ironically, Rule 48 might not have happened without one of his players delivering that sort of hit.
On March 7, 2010, the Boston Bruins were visiting the Penguins in Pittsburgh. In the third period, Boston center Marc Savard collected a pass high in the Penguins zone and fired a quick shot toward the Pittsburgh net. With Savard in a vulnerable position after releasing the puck, Penguins winger Matt Cooke skated by and used his left arm to drill Savard in the head. The Bruins forward twisted to the ice, eerily near the location on the ice where Booth was injured months earlier in Philadelphia. Cooke wasn’t penalized on the play.
Another hit to the head. Another player stretchered off the ice. Another controversy right before the general managers met again.
“Maybe it’s a good thing that the GM meetings are when they are,” Cooke’s teammate, Penguins captain Sidney Crosby, said in the aftermath of the hit. “There’s obviously some confusion as to what’s a good hit and what’s not a good hit. That’s got to be fixed pretty quickly. We’ve seen it time and time again, and we all debate whether it was a good or a bad hit.”
Shero’s plan was to fly to the GM meetings after the Penguins game. Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli was sharing a flight with him to Florida for the conference.
“That was a long ride to the Pittsburgh airport. I think it was 15 minutes before we said anything to each other,” Shero said.
The next morning, there was a long discussion among the GMs about the Cooke hit and whether there was a remedy for it through supplemental discipline. There was a clamor for Cooke to be suspended, from fans, media and players alike.
“The media was talking, and we were talking internally,” said Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland, who was then the general manager of the Detroit Red Wings. “You could make the case that it was legal. But all the managers went to that meeting knowing that, because of that hit, we had to make some adjustments to the way the game was being officiated. To make a safer environment, and to protect our players.”
The debate was intense. Lou Lamoriello, then GM of the New Jersey Devils, said that suspending Cooke would be akin to “making something up” because there was no rule covering that hit.
“It was like ‘The Untouchables’ and Al Capone. What, were they going to get Matt Cooke on tax evasion?” recalled Shero, now an advisor to the Minnesota Wild. “There was nothing in the rulebook. There was nothing to have a hearing on.”
By not taking action against Cooke, Campbell forced action from the general managers to finally, and formally, create a rule that could cover hits like those that injured Booth and Savard. Several people involved in those meetings agreed that if Campbell suspended Cooke — which would have been thoroughly popular at the time — it would have been years before a rule that actually covered the incident would have been enacted.
“There is no Rule 48 if he just does what a lot of the people in hockey and media wanted done at the time, which was to just suspend him despite the rulebook,” Shanahan said. “If he suspends Matt Cooke for that hit, then it’s quieter. It goes away. You don’t have this moment where the managers are wondering what they want to do to make the game better.”
What the GMs decided to do was implement a rare in-season rule change. “Beginning with tonight’s games, the NHL will implement a new rule prohibiting a lateral back pressure or blindside hit to an opponent where the head is targeted and/or the principal point of contact,” the league announced on March 25, 2010.
The announcement also stated that the hockey operations department was empowered to review any such hit for the purpose of supplemental discipline — a decision that was popular with the players at the time, in the aftermath of hits like the one delivered to Booth.
Shanahan replaced Campbell as the head of player safety on June 1, 2011. But before that, he helped refine Rule 48.
The tweaking
Rule 48 formally appeared in the NHL rulebook for the 2010-11 season. Illegal checks to the head were now defined: “A lateral or blindside hit to an opponent where the head is targeted and/or the principal point of contact is not permitted.”
The biggest news in the rule’s first iteration was that checks to the head would be subject to a five-minute major penalty and automatic game misconduct, with possible supplemental discipline from the league.
NHL commissioner Gary Bettman called the rule change “a fundamental shift” for the league, but cautioned not to have it apply to all situations.
“There are nuanced differences between acts that some people think are similar, but they’re not the same. So you can’t be too willing or too quick to paint what happens on the ice that requires supplemental discipline with too broad a brush,” he said.
The first season of the rule saw six players get suspended specifically for hits to the head: Shane Doan (three games), Joe Thornton (two games), Matt Martin (two games), Tom Kostopoulos (six games), Mike Brown (three games) and Daniel Paille (four games). There were also a handful of fines. The rest of the suspensions involving head contact were categorized as being for elbowing, cross-checking, charging or the lateness of a hit.
The league quickly discovered that referees who had asked for Rule 48 to be implemented were hesitant to enforce it.
“The referees at the time were saying that on the ice in real time it was a difficult call to make. That they would catch more of them if it was a minor penalty, that with a major, because it was a new rule, it was too punitive. They felt the harsher penalty could be through supplemental discipline,” Shanahan said.
In March 2011, Shanahan joined a “blue ribbon panel” of former players turned executives — Rob Blake, Steve Yzerman and Joe Nieuwendyk — to tweak the supplemental discipline process and find ways to broaden Rule 48 to cover other hits to the head.
“The real difficult part at the time was figuring out what was just going to be incidental head contact and what was going to be illegal head contact,” Shanahan said. “It sounds like an easy thing to do. But it was more complicated than that, and we saw that with the tweaks to the rule over the next couple of years.”
In 2011-12, a reworked Rule 48 was introduced. The words “lateral” and “blindside” were removed to widen the application of the rule. The rule stated that the head had to be targeted and the principal point of contact, rather than “and/or.” There was also added language about whether the player taking the hit had put himself in a vulnerable position “immediately prior to or simultaneously with the hit” or if head contact “on an otherwise legal body check” was unavoidable.
“The ‘lateral’ and the ‘blindside’ was not to say that it was OK to hit a guy in the head like that, it’s to say we’re not going to distinguish how a player was hit in the head. It could be any position or any angle,” Shanahan said.
An illegal check to the head was now either a minor penalty or a match penalty, not a major penalty, to make it easier on the officials.
In the first season for both the NHL Department of Player Safety and the revamped Rule 48, the league issued 13 suspensions for illegal checks to the head for a total of 43 games. The 12 games given to James Wisniewski were the most handed out. It was a rule that saw both repeat offenders and star players get suspended.
The rule’s effectiveness was called into question in 2013. Dr. Michael Cusimano, a neurosurgeon from Toronto’s St. Michael’s Hospital, co-authored a study that claimed Rule 48 didn’t significantly lower concussion rates in the NHL. The study was later used as evidence in a class-action lawsuit brought against the league by a group of former players who claimed the NHL was negligent in its prevention of concussions. The suit was settled in 2018; as part of the settlement, the NHL did not acknowledge any liability for any of the plaintiffs’ claims.
“Part of it’s the way the rule’s written. Part of it’s the way the rule is enforced. Part of it’s the penalties associated with the rule. And part of it is that concussions are also coming from other causes like fighting, that is still allowed,” Cusimano told the Canadian Press in 2013.
The rule continued to be rewritten. For 2013-14, the players requested that “principal point of contact” be changed to “main point of contact” in the rule. The word “targeted” was dropped in favor of “avoidable head contact,” leaving intent out of the mandatory criteria.
“Any time there was something in our language that confused the managers or the players, we would tweak it,” Shanahan said. “To remove ‘targeting’ was meant to suggest that a hit may not have been intentional, but it could be reckless. That a player with no history could have thrown a reckless hit.”
Damian Echevarrieta, vice president of NHL player safety, laughed when recalling this change. “I love Shanny, but he would say things like ‘unintentionally targeted’ and I’d have to tell him that the word ‘target’ has intention in it. You can’t unintentionally target something!” he said.
By 2016, Rule 48 looked much like it does today, emphasizing the illegality of reckless or avoidable hits to the head, while mentioning the nuance of an opponent’s body position when the hit was delivered. The rule makes it clear that if the head is the main point of contact and the contact was avoidable by delivering the hit a different way or not delivering one at all, then it’s an illegal check to the head.
Needless to say, there was a learning curve for all these rule tweaks, and for the rule itself.
The re-education
The last decade saw players, coaches and team executives struggle to understand Rule 48 and its application, especially in early hearings. One person with knowledge of the hearings characterized the typical counterarguments from players and teams as “victim blaming,” as they spoke more about the opponent taking the hit than the hit itself.
“The first couple of years were very difficult,” Shanahan said. “Players and managers would come into the hearings and say, ‘This is a legal hit.’ You have to acknowledge that six months ago, it was. But it’s not anymore. That was a huge shift.”
The videos that the department created helped with the education, although not necessarily for the experienced players in the NHL.
“The videos weren’t for the players in the league at that time. They didn’t even watch them. We were making them for kids that were playing,” Shanahan said.
One of the biggest factors in the player education process was the rookie orientation camps that were started within the past decade. In between sessions with top prospects in which they learn about social media etiquette and receive financial advice, the Department of Player Safety gets them for an hour, and explains the nuances of things like Rule 48. Shanahan hopes they’re already familiar with it.
“The next generation is only about four or five years down the road. These kids that were between 14 and 16 would be impacted by these videos, for when they reached the NHL,” Shanahan said.
The question remains what Rule 48 will look like for those next generations.
The future
Chris Nowinski is co-founder and CEO of the Concussion Legacy Foundation, a nonprofit organization leading the fight against concussions and CTE. He’s been an open critic of the way the NHL has handled both. But he said Rule 48 was a net positive development for the league.
“We all know that player behavior can be changed and penalties are a great way to do it. Rule 48 and the education videos that were released were very effective in making the game safer for those catastrophic hits to the head.”
Nowinski feels the NHL still isn’t candid enough with its players about the long-term impact of concussions in contact sports. “The responsible thing is to educate players about what they’re getting into,” he said.
Nowinski saw Rule 48 as an obvious evolution for the NHL, and ultimately good for business.
“The hits to the head 10 years ago were highlight videos. Or they were called out and made the league look bad. So it’s a very clear PR strategy to get them out of the game,” he said. “It’s about optics but it’s also about protecting your stars and keeping them in the game.”
He wonders if the next evolution will be a total ban on any contact with the head.
“They’re not selling tickets based on hits to the head,” said Nowinski. “Rule 48 proved you can change that behavior. Eliminating hits to the head could [make the NHL] more popular. It could be less popular. It’s a shame no one wants to try.”
There’s always been a sense that a total ban on head contact would change the way the game is played too dramatically. But there’s a notion that Rule 48 could go further, if not that far.
“I think there’s a possibility that more hits become illegal than are currently considered illegal hits,” said one NHL source.
Holland said there hasn’t been much discussion about a total ban on head contact among the GMs recently.
“I think it’s cooled down because of the effectiveness of Rule 48. But at the end of the day, it’s going to be hard to have any rule like that in there. The game is played at such a high speed. There’s physicality. You’re always going to have some head injuries,” he said. “With the education of the players and the rule changes, I do think we’re in a good place right now. But three years from now if there’s too many people injured, we might have to reassess. I can’t tell you what the future is going to bring.”
While a total ban on head contact may not be imminent, Parros does see one aspect of checking that could fall under the Rule 48 umbrella: hits where the head violently collides with the boards.
“We are constantly looking at and analyzing our game, how it’s played and where it can be improved or regulated in the best possible manner. When Rule 48 was first implemented, we were trying to eliminate those open-ice hits that ‘picked’ or ‘targeted’ the head. Over time, I think our efforts have worked quite well in this regard,” he said. “Looking forward, with many of the hits that we see, head contact occurs in and along the boards, and less so in the open ice. Secondary contact with the glass and boards is something that we see more of and will continue to monitor.”
Whatever the next iteration of Rule 48 looks like, it’s clear that one decade in, the league is safer, with the rule eliminating many of the catastrophic hits that were previously a commonplace part of the game.
If it existed in 2009, would players like David Booth have had a different career?
“It’s a hard question to answer. You never know what could have happened. How many times we’ve been saved from something and not realize it,” Booth said. “But there’s no doubt that it had a beneficial impact. Some of those hits that used to happen … they were crazy.”
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Branch Bros. commit to Georgia after USC exit
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10 hours agoon
January 5, 2025By
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Pete Thamel, Senior College Sports InsiderJan 5, 2025, 04:31 PM ET
Close- College Football Senior Writer for ESPN. Insider for College Gameday.
Former USC wide receiver Zachariah Branch and safety Zion Branch have committed to Georgia, the brothers told ESPN on Sunday.
The brothers are former top-100 recruits who loom as significant additions for the Bulldogs in 2025. They both have two seasons of eligibility remaining.
Zachariah Branch is the No. 9 overall player and No. 4 wide receiver in ESPN’s transfer portal rankings. He earned first-team All-American honors in 2023 while emerging as one of the most electric players in college football.
“I chose Georgia because I felt like the culture was something special,” Zachariah Branch told ESPN. “They have a great coaching staff, the brotherhood within the program, their will to win, being prepared for the next level and being as successful as possible on and off the field was important to me.”
Zachariah Branch can boost a Georgia receiving room that was beset this season by off-field issues and inconsistent play. Georgia led the country with 36 wide receiver drops, per ESPN Research.
“I see their potential as a contender for the national championship and to defend their SEC title in 2025,” Zachariah Branch said.
He accounted for 1,863 all-purpose yards during his two seasons at USC, including two kicks returned for touchdowns in 2023. As a receiver he caught 78 passes for 823 yards and three touchdowns. He tied for the team lead in receptions this season with 47. He rushed for 87 yards and another touchdown during his two seasons in coach Lincoln Riley’s offense.
Zion Branch played in all 12 games for USC as a redshirt sophomore safety this season, recording 19 tackles, 3 pass breakups and 1 sack in a reserve role. He’s the older of the two brothers and dealt with season-ending injuries in both 2022 and 2023.
“I chose the University of Georgia because of its great coaching staff, their pedigree, and the history of the program,” Zion Branch told ESPN. “Georgia has consistently been one of the best programs in college football, and the culture of excellence they’ve built is something I want to be a part of. The coaches are not just about winning games; they’re about building character, fostering growth and pushing players to be their absolute best both on and off the field.”
The brothers joined the Trojans after starring at Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas. Zachariah was the No. 7 overall recruit in the ESPN 300 for 2023, and Zion was No. 76 in 2022.
The Georgia receiving room was full of steady players but with no true standout; nobody finished in the SEC’s top 10 for receiving yards. Senior Arian Smith, who accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl but still has a season of eligibility left, led the Bulldogs with 817 yards. Receiver/punt returner Anthony Evans III entered the transfer portal, and Dominic Lovett, who is out of eligibility, led the team with 59 catches.
Zachariah Branch offers rare dynamism and downfield speed that will make him a candidate to be Georgia’s top target in 2025. He scored just one touchdown for USC in 2024 after scoring five as a true freshman — two in the return game, two receiving and one rushing.
The brothers see themselves as contributors toward the program’s bigger goals.
“This team is poised to do something truly special — competing for championships and setting a standard of excellence that few can match,” Zion Branch said. “With the talent that’s already there and the elite-level recruits coming in, the future is incredibly bright. I have no doubt Georgia will not only win a lot of games but also continue to lead the nation in innovation and performance on the field.”
Sports
FCS title game preview: Can North Dakota State knock off undefeated Montana State?
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10 hours agoon
January 5, 2025By
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff WriterJan 3, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a staff writer for ESPN.com.
On Dec. 15, 1984, Montana State completed a worst-to-first run for the ages. One season after going 1-10, Dave Arnold’s Bobcats began the season 2-2 but caught fire offensively, beat a top-10 Boise State team in October and even upset Fresno State 35-31 late in the season. They charged into the 12-team playoff with the No. 3 seed, beat Arkansas State and Rhode Island by a combined 29 points, then unleashed hell on Louisiana Tech in the title game. Quarterback Kelly Bradley threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns, Tech didn’t score until the final minute of the game, and MSU cruised 19-6.
Montana State has been chasing that title feeling for 40 years. And Monday night in Frisco, Texas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN), the Bobcats have their best chance yet of earning a second ring. All that’s left is to defeat FCS’ ultimate final boss.
After ceding control of FCS to rival South Dakota State for a couple of years, North Dakota State defeated the Jackrabbits twice in 2024; the Bison are back in the final for the 11th time in 14 years. They knocked Montana State out of the playoffs in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2023, and after winning eight of nine titles between 2011 and 2019, they’re looking for their second title of the 2020s.
Will we see another North Dakota State coronation or will Montana State conjure the spirit of 1984?
How they got here
Record: 15-0
SP+ rankings: first overall, first on offense, second on defense
Key regular-season results: def. New Mexico 35-31, def. Idaho 38-7, def. UC Davis 30-28, def. Montana 34-11
Playoff run: def. UT Martin 49-17, def. No. 8 Idaho 52-19, def. No. 4 South Dakota 31-17
Defeating FCS royalty comes with its own set of challenges, but there should be no doubting who the best team in FCS has been through 15 games. Montana State has been devastating from start to finish. Despite handing New Mexico a pair of defensive touchdowns, the Bobcats still overcame the FBS Lobos, dominating statistically (total yards: 567-324) and scoring 21 fourth-quarter points to win their season opener.
They’ve barely wobbled since. Their only tight game to date against an FCS opponent was only sort of tight: On Nov. 16, they went on a 30-0 run to take a commanding lead at eventual quarterfinalist UC Davis before the Aggies scored three late touchdowns (thanks in part to an onside kick recovery) to make it close. No one has had the ball with a chance to take a late lead on MSU since the New Mexico game. South Dakota played an awesome game against the Bobcats in the semifinals and still couldn’t get closer than 14 points down the stretch.
Record: 13-2
SP+ rankings: third overall, second on offense, fifth on defense
Key regular-season results: lost to Colorado 31-26, def. North Dakota 41-17, def. South Dakota State 13-9, def. Missouri State 59-21, lost to South Dakota 29-28
Playoff run: def. Abilene Christian 51-31, def. No. 7 Mercer 31-7, def. No. 3 South Dakota State 28-21
NDSU took on a tougher schedule and came within six points of an unbeaten record. The Bison led Colorado at halftime but couldn’t quite overcome a pair of Travis Hunter touchdowns in the second half, falling 4 yards short on a game-ending Hail Mary.
They had to survive an early 38-35 thriller against East Tennessee State, recovering an onside kick and scoring twice in the last two minutes, but once the defense found its rhythm, NDSU started looking like NDSU again. Over their past 11 games, only three have been close: the two wins over South Dakota State and the tight loss at South Dakota.
MSU offense, first-team all-conference selections: QB Tommy Mellott (6-foot-0, 208 lbs., Sr.), RB Scottre Humphrey (5-11, 210, So.), TE Rohan Jones (6-3, 235, Jr.), RG Marcus Wehr (6-4, 300, Sr.), LT Conner Moore (6-5, 310, So.), PR Taco Dowler (5-9, 175, So.)
In his first collegiate game in 2021, he ripped off a 44-yard run. In his fourth, he scored from 74 yards. In his first three playoff games, he threw for 449 yards and rushed for 411 while leading MSU to the national title game.
For most of four years now, Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott has been a unicorn, combining ultra-efficient passing with downright reckless rushing, throwing his 208-pound frame around with abandon and doing whatever it takes to get the job done. He got injured early in the 2021 title game against NDSU, and he has been dinged up at some point basically every year since. But if he’s in the game, he’s probably doing something ridiculous. He has five career 150-yard rushing games (including a 273-yard, three-touchdown performance against Weber State in 2022), and he has five career 225-yard passing games (including a 300-yard, four-touchdown performance against UT Martin in the second round of this year’s playoffs).
In 2024, Mellott and his supporting cast have produced the most brilliant offense in FCS. Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones have combined for 2,494 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns, with Mellott chipping in 915 yards and 14 more scores in less than eight carries per game. Meanwhile, Mellott has completed 69% of his passes at 13.5 yards per completion with a downright unfair 29-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. He doesn’t have a go-to receiver — he has three: Wideouts Taco Dowler (also an ace punt returner) and Ty McCullouch and tight end Rohan Jones have combined for 100 catches, 1,494 yards and 23 scores.
A case could be made that elite line play was the last piece of the puzzle in head coach Brent Vigen’s four-year building project — it’s where the Bobcats most noticeably were lacking in their first few meetings against NDSU and SDSU. But despite starting three sophomores up front, the Bobcats boast an abundance of both talent and raw size up front, averaging 6-4, 305 pounds across the line with a pair of first-team all-Big Sky performers. MSU averages 41.3 points per game and hasn’t been held under 31 all season. It was jarring when South Dakota forced four straight punts in the second half of the semifinals, but it didn’t help all that much since MSU had scored on five of its first six drives.
NDSU defense, first-team all-conference selections: DT Eli Mostaert (6-3, 289, Sr.), LB Logan Kopp (6-1, 220, Jr.)
NDSU’s defense took a little while to shift into gear in 2024. Including the loss to Colorado and the near-upset against ETSU, the Bison allowed at least 24 points and at least 367 yards in three of their first four games. But in the 11 games since, they’ve allowed only 15.7 points and 299.1 yards per game despite playing over half their games in that span against playoff teams.
Veteran linemen Eli Mostaert, Loshiaka Roques and Kody Huisman have combined for 24 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks and 12 QB hurries up front (Huisman also has blocked two kicks), and linebacker Logan Kopp is the prototypical tackling machine. But as has been customary over the last 15 years or so, the Bison’s biggest strength is depth. Nine NDSU defenders have recorded at least four tackles for loss, nine have at least two sacks, 12 have defended (intercepted or broken up) at least three passes, 13 have forced a fumble and 14 have recovered one. MSU has the best offense they’ve faced, but in two games against SDSU (No. 3 in offensive SP+) the Bison allowed an average of just 333 yards and 19 points. They aren’t likely to give up too many easy yards, even to Mellott & Co.
A mistake-free Bison attack
NDSU offense, first-team all-conference selections: QB Cam Miller (6-1, 212, Sr.), WR Bryce Lance (6-3, 204, Jr.), RT Mason Miller (6-7, 305, Sr.), LT Grey Zabel (6-6, 305, Sr.)
The bar is high in Fargo, and compared to the absurd talent that has rolled through town over the past 15 years, this NDSU offense is not the most explosive this FCS dynasty has produced. Backs CharMar Brown and Barika Kpeenu have combined for 1,825 yards and 21 touchdowns, but they average just 5.1 yards per carry — good but not elite. Cam Miller has thrown for 3,052 yards and 31 TDs, but his 12.8 yards per completion is less than you’d expect.
The Bison can still ground teams down with mistake-free efficiency, however. They convert 54% of their third downs and 68% of their fourth downs, and you just can’t take the ball away from them: They’ve committed an FCS-low six turnovers in 15 games. (Granted, there’s some luck involved in that — they’ve lost only one of 10 fumbles. But 10 fumbles in 15 games is minimal too.) The line is still huge, averaging 6-5 and 304 pounds, the backs are still hard to bring down (Brown and Kpeenu are 214 and 209 pounds, respectively), and if your safeties bite on a run fake, they can still go deep with breakout star wideout Bryce Lance (964 yards, 16 TDs), whose unreal, one-handed grab sent NDSU to the title game.
THE ONE-HAND GRAB 🤯@NDSUfootball takes the lead with Bryce Lance’s third touchdown of the game. #FCSPlayoffs x 🎥 ABC pic.twitter.com/lBNM58RpCA
— NCAA FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) December 21, 2024
While Miller’s upside probably doesn’t match that of Carson Wentz or Trey Lance (Bryce’s older brother), there’s nothing you can throw at him that he hasn’t seen before: The reigning Missouri Valley offensive player of the year will play in his 67th career game Monday night.
If you aren’t careful, the Bison will score on you with special teams too. For as good as MSU’s Taco Dowler is in returns, NDSU can get you with either a punt return (Jackson Williams: 10.8 yards per return and one TD) or a kick return (Williams and TK Marshall: 29.9 yards per return and two scores).
MSU defense, first-team all-conference selections: Edge Brody Grebe (6-3, 250, Sr.), LB McCade O’Reilly (6-0, 220, Sr.), SS Rylan Ortt (6-1, 210, Sr.)
When MSU got mauled by NDSU in the 2021 title game, the Bobcats’ defense had only two players on the depth chart listed at more than 270 pounds. The Bison did what they do against all overmatched foes and road-graded MSU for 380 rushing yards.
MSU still doesn’t exactly have Georgia’s mammoth defensive front, but the 2024 Bobcats are bigger than they were in 2021. Starting tackles Paul Brott and Alec Eckert are listed at 290 and 280 pounds, respectively, and Brody Grebe is a sturdy 250 at end. New Mexico averaged 262.8 rushing yards per game against FBS opponents but managed only 152 against MSU, and only Eastern Washington topped 152 on the Bobcats.
To move the ball on them, teams typically have to do it through the air. UC Davis’ Miles Hastings, Idaho’s Jack Layne and South Dakota’s Aidan Bouman combined to go 62-for-92 for 795 yards, 5 TDs and 2 interceptions against the Bobcats, and while a lot of that yardage came when these opponents were down double digits, it’s still solid work. Of course, it also came with a cost: MSU sacked those three quarterbacks 10 times. Led by ends Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV (combined: 16.5 sacks) and linebackers McCade O’Reilly and Neil Daily (combined: 15 TFLs), the Bobcats have recorded 36 sacks among 85 TFLs this season. You might be able to hit them for a big play here and there, but only if you get them before they get you.
Projecting the title game
MSU’s Brent Vigen and NDSU’s Tim Polasek both earned their figurative coaching degrees at the University of Craig Bohl — Vigen coached for Bohl at NDSU from 2003-13 and at Wyoming from 2014-20 (mostly as offensive coordinator), while Polasek joined Bohl’s NDSU staff in 2006, stayed in Fargo until 2016 and rejoined Bohl at Wyoming after a stint as Iowa’s offensive line coach. The paths of these two coaches have crossed constantly. So, too, have the paths of these teams, and every time they’ve met in the playoffs, NDSU has prevailed.
Vigen is 47-9 in four seasons at Montana State: 1-2 against FBS teams, 2-2 against rival Montana, 1-4 against NDSU and SDSU and 43-1 against everyone else. He and his Bobcats have been building toward this exact run for a while, and it feels like this is their time to break through. It wouldn’t be a surprise, however, if North Dakota State wrecked the Bobcats’ plans — it’s what dynasties do, after all.
Three years ago, MSU wasn’t quite ready. Mellott got hurt, the Bobcats had no chance of stopping the NDSU run game, and Miller and the Bison rolled. It might be a different story this time around.
ESPN Bet projection: MSU 30.0, NDSU 26.5 (MSU -3.5, over/under 56.5) | SP+ projection: MSU 30.2, NDSU 26.7
Sports
QB recruit back to Cal after portal flip from Ducks
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13 hours agoon
January 5, 2025By
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Eli Lederman, ESPN Staff WriterJan 5, 2025, 02:11 PM ET
Close- Eli Lederman covers college football and recruiting for ESPN.com. He joined ESPN in 2024 after covering the University of Oklahoma for Sellout Crowd and the Tulsa World.
Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who first committed to Cal in July before his Dec. 4 flip to Oregon, has signed with Golden Bears, he told ESPN on Sunday, after entering the NCAA transfer portal over the weekend.
Sagapolutele becomes the top-ranked member of the Bears’ 2025 recruiting class. The No. 1 prospect from Hawai’i and ESPN’s No. 18 pocket passer will be eligible to play immediately next fall. His decision marks the latest twist in a dramatic cycle for the talented 2025 high school quarterback class, as well as a significant recruiting win for Cal coach Justin Wilcox.
Sagapolutele’s move comes just 32 days after he spurned the Bears and signed with the Ducks’ top-ranked class during the early signing period. He enrolled at Oregon last month and joined the program for its Rose Bowl preparations, even standing on the sideline during the Ducks’ loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal on Jan. 1.
Sagapolutele, who placed a heavy emphasis on early opportunity and development throughout his recruitment, told ESPN that the bowl season experience with Oregon gave him a view of the Ducks’ future outlook at quarterback. With 2024 starter Dillon Gabriel out of eligibility, the Ducks are expected to lean on Dante Moore and Austin Novosad next fall. Behind them, 2025 quarterback signee Akili Smith Jr. (No. 87 in the ESPN 300) is also set to arrive on campus this month as an early enrollee after participating in practices during bowl season.
As Sagapolutele’s confidence over his future at Oregon wavered, he found a pathway back to Cal. Given his December enrollment, he was permitted to use the transfer portal in the five-day window granted to Ducks players following the Rose Bowl defeat, formally entering the transfer portal Saturday.
“I just felt that there was another school in particular that was right for me,” Sagapolutele told ESPN. “I’m excited to be a priority over there and to get to work. I’m ready to see what God has in store for me at Cal.”
Sagapolutele capped his career at Campbell (Hawai’i) High School with 3,404 yards, 46 touchdowns and just three interceptions this season, surpassing Gabriel as the state’s all-time passing leader with 10,653 yards. With his return to the Bears, Sagapolutele can expect a much clearer path to contend for early snaps under center.
After former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza‘s offseason transfer to Indiana and the graduation of veteran Chandler Rogers, the Bears are thin at the quarterback position heading into 2025. While Cal is expected to remain active in the transfer passer market this cycle, Sagapolutele will have a chance to compete immediately in a position room that currently holds just 13 games of college experience between returners CJ Harris and EJ Caminong.
Wilcox and the Bears were among the earliest Power 4 programs to recruit Sagapolutele, a late riser in the 2025 class whose stock soared after an impressive performance at the 2024 Elite 11 Finals in June. That early investment paid off over the summer when Sagapolutele committed to Cal over finalists Oregon State, Boise State and Utah State.
The Bears, however, struggled to hold off late recruiting pushes from Georgia and Oregon in the fall after both schools offered Sagapolutele following the start of his senior season.
Sagapolutele left his October visit with the Ducks blown away by the offense under coordinator Will Stein and encouraged by the time he spent with Gabriel, a fellow Hawaiian who coached Sagapolutele during the Elite 11 event last year. Sagapolutele ultimately canceled a pair of scheduled November visits to Georgia, but he gave the Bulldogs strong consideration before pulling his pledge from Cal and joining the Ducks’ latest stockpile of high school talent.
Sagapolutele said the connection that he developed with Cal’s coaching staff never faded. As he experienced a change of heart with the Ducks, it was Sagapolutele’s relationships with Wilcox, Bears offensive coordinator Mike Bloesch and quarterbacks coach Sterlin Gilbert that pulled him back to Cal, stamping a critical victory for a Bears recruiting class that ranked 65th by ESPN.
“It’s the right environment for me,” Sagapolutele said. “Coach Gilbert is going to develop me and it’s a place where I’m going to be able to go in and compete early on.”
Sagapolutele’s move comes in a cycle that saw nine of ESPN’s top 16 quarterback prospects flip their pledges.
While Sagapolutele’s move through the transfer portal before ever playing a college game represents a feature unique to this modern age of college football, it is not entirely unprecedented. He follows 2024 five-star passer Julian Sayin, who transferred from Alabama to Ohio State last year following Nick Saban’s retirement, as the second high-profile quarterback prospect in as many cycles to enroll with a school in December before entering the transfer portal just weeks later.
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