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Week 11 featured arguably the best individual performance of the 2021 NFL season. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor ran for 185 yards and four touchdowns, and he added 19 more yards and a fifth score on three catches. Indianapolis pulled off the big upset of the Bills behind Taylor’s huge day, winning 41-15. The Vikings also upset the Packers on a final-play field goal, and receiver Justin Jefferson helped them get there with 169 receiving yards and a pair of TDs.

But perhaps the biggest upset of the week was the Texans’ 22-13 victory over the Titans. Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw four interceptions. Washington coach Ron Rivera won against his former team in Carolina, and the Dolphins won their third straight game. The Browns narrowly avoided a loss to the winless Lions, and the Ravens — playing without quarterback Lamar Jackson — hung on to beat the Bears after Justin Fields was forced to leave the game with a rib injury.

The Eagles’ run game continued to look good in a 40-point outburst against the Saints, with three rushing scores from Jalen Hurts and 94 rushing yards from Miles Sanders, and the 49ers took care of business in Jacksonville. Oh, and the Patriots looked dominant on Thursday in a shutout of the Falcons.

Our NFL Nation reporters react with the takeaways and lingering questions from this week’s action. Plus, they each look at the bigger picture with their current team confidence rating — a 0-10 grade of how they feel about each team’s outlook coming out of the week. Let’s get to it.

Jump to a matchup:
GB-MIN | IND-BUF | NO-PHI
BAL-CHI | WSH-CAR | HOU-TEN
DET-CLE | SF-JAX | MIA-NYJ
NE-ATL

Texans

What to know: Tyrod Taylor gives the Texans the best chance to win. David Culley said it over and over while Taylor was injured and rookie quarterback Davis Mills was starting, but on Sunday, Taylor showed why Culley had so much confidence in him, completing 14 of 24 passes for 107 yards and rushing for two touchdowns. Taylor became the third quarterback in Texans franchise history with multiple rushing touchdowns in a game, joining David Carr and Deshaun Watson. Taylor struggled in Week 9 in his return from his left hamstring injury, but he did not turn the ball over against the Titans. Every team deals with injuries — the Titans were without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones — but it’s easy to wonder how competitive the Texans would have been had Taylor not injured his left hamstring in Week 2. — Sarah Barshop

Did the Texans just cost themselves the No. 1 draft pick? Houston entered the game a half-game back of the Lions for the worst record this season, but a big victory in Nashville for the Texans firmly puts Detroit in the driver’s seat. The second half of the Texans’ schedule is far easier than the first half, and if Taylor can stay healthy, Houston looks like a team that could win a few more games. The Texans have two more important games for draft position: Week 12 against the New York Jets (2-8) and Week 15 in Jacksonville (2-8). — Barshop

Barshop’s confidence rating (0-10): 1, up from 0.5. The Texans played their best game of the season since Week 1, and it was against a team that entered the game tied for the best record in the NFL.

Next game: vs. Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)


Titans

What to know: The Titans have a tendency to play up to their competition and, in this case, down to it as well. Tennessee was 7-0 against playoff teams entering their game against Houston, and the Titans were favored by 10 points against the Texans, who came into Sunday with just one win. Starting with the first drive, though, sloppy play cost them. Houston controlled the game after jumping out to a 12-0 lead. — Turron Davenport

Is it now officially time to worry about the offense? The Titans’ offense showed little life today. The lack of playmakers to take over the game continues to hurt them. But Ryan Tannehill‘s interceptions deeply hampered Tennessee’s chance to win the game. Tannehill threw an interception after a defensive stop late in the fourth quarter that all but ended a chance at another comeback win for the Titans. The question remains, can the Titans win with Tannehill carrying the bulk of the offensive load? His four-interception performance against the Texans makes it seem unlikely. — Davenport

Davenport’s confidence rating (0-10): 8.5, down from 9. Losing to the Texans is inexcusable for this team. The Titans came out flat and never recovered. The defense can only do so much to keep them in the game. Tennessee’s offense simply didn’t carry its share of the load, and it showed. The injuries continue to mount with A.J. Brown being knocked out of the game with a chest injury. The Titans just don’t have many playmakers left on the offense.

Next game: at Patriots (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Vikings

What to know: When it was gut-check time, the Vikings’ offense answered the bell in a wild back-and-forth game that puts the team at .500 (5-5) for the second time this season. Minnesota built off its win over the Chargers by continuing to establish an identity as an offense that gets the ball to its playmakers, and Justin Jefferson keeps taking his game up a notch every week. The second-year receiver caught eight passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns and was already at 100 yards receiving at the end of the first quarter. Teams will always throw added defenders Jefferson’s way, but the Vikings got creative in getting him open by lining him up in the backfield before sending him out on a shallow route over the middle on his first touchdown. Jefferson also drew a 37-yard pass interference in the first half that set up Adam Thielen’s touchdown. Cousins utilized his top two receivers well, with Thielen contributing eight catches for 82 yards and the TD. — Courtney Cronin

Why can’t the Vikings protect a double-digit lead? Minnesota is now 2-2 on the season when leading by at least 13 points. The Vikings have built double-digit leads just as easily as they’ve lost them; they threw punch after punch on offense by staying aggressive and taking shots down the field, yet their defense still allowed the Packers to come back in the game. After Green Bay took a 24-23 lead in the fourth quarter, Minnesota thundered back behind Jefferson’s second touchdown catch and Dalvin Cook’s 2-point conversion, only to have Rodgers hit Marquez Valdes-Scantling on the first play of the Packers’ next drive to wrestle back the lead. Minnesota’s defense let Rodgers scramble for six-plus seconds on two of his touchdown throws, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. It’s up to the Vikings’ defense to protect leads if they want to land one of the final two seeds in the NFC playoffs. — Cronin

Cronin’s confidence rating (0-10): 7, up from 4.5. The Vikings beat the best team in the NFC by hanging on late and staying aggressive on offense. If they can beat San Francisco in Week 12, the rest of their schedule is incredibly favorable for their chances of making it back to the postseason.

Next game: at 49ers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

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Vikings get the win over the Packers after Greg Joseph kicks the deciding field goal as time expires.


Packers

What to know: Well, maybe the Packers don’t quite have a championship-level defense just yet. Sure, the unit made plays, notably a pair of sacks by Preston Smith, but when it needed one more stop, it couldn’t come through. Unlike in the Oct. 28 win at Arizona, there was no miracle interception in the end zone from Rasul Douglas. This was simply a defense that gave up 10 points on the Vikings’ final two possessions, including the game-winning field goal at the final gun. They had no answer for Justin Jefferson, the Vikings star receiver who caught eight passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns. The second was a beautiful 23-yard fade that gave the Vikings a 31-24 lead with 2:17 left. The problem was the Packers then scored too soon, when Aaron Rodgers hit Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a 75-yard touchdown to the tie it with 2:08 left. The Packers’ defense, which came in ranked third in fewest yards allowed and third in fewest passing yards allowed, let Kirk Cousins throw for 341 yards and three touchdowns. — Rob Demovsky

How bad will Elgton Jenkins’ knee injury hurt the Packers? They can probably handle losing Jenkins, assuming it’s as bad as it looked when he limped off unable to put much pressure on his left knee, if David Bakhtiari is finally ready to play. But that’s still a big if, especially after Packers coach Matt LaFleur wouldn’t say much last week about why Bakhtiari appears to have taken a step back in his attempted return from ACL surgery in January. Bakhtiari seemed on track to play a couple of weeks ago when he came off the PUP list, but then he didn’t practice at all last week. With Bakhtiari back, the Packers could have moved Jenkins back to left guard, where he was a Pro Bowler last year. Now, they could be down to their No. 3 left tackle for a while. — Demovsky

Demovsky’s confidence rating (0-10): 7, down from 7.5. It’s waning in part because the Packers desperately need to get to their bye week, and they won’t get it for another two weeks. First, they have to deal with the Rams (7-3), who should be rested coming off their bye.

Next game: vs. Rams (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Browns

What to know: The Browns may have won the game. But once again, they didn’t resemble anything close to a playoff-caliber team while slogging their way to victory over the winless Lions. Even with the return of Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb, who closed out Detroit on the final drive, the offense remains a mess. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is ailing. And so too is the passing game. In turn, Cleveland has scored more than 17 points in a game only once since Oct. 10. To have any chance of making a run to the playoffs, the Browns will have to produce an immediate and drastic turnaround offensively. — Jake Trotter

How can the Browns get Mayfield going again? Unfortunately for Cleveland, Mayfield is going to be playing injured the rest of the season. He was noticeably limping around in the second half — his knee and foot injuries compounding the torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. Reestablishing a running game that, when rolling with its full complement of players is among the best in the NFL, should help put Mayfield in more favorable situations. Ultimately, though, Mayfield is going to have be sharper than he was Sunday, no matter the injuries. Getting back to taking better care of the ball would be a start. — Trotter

Trotter’s confidence rating (0-10): 6, up from 5.9. Cleveland’s season ultimately hinges on what it does in its next two games — both against the Ravens.

Next game: at Ravens (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)


Lions

What to know: Running back D’Andre Swift showed why he’s the Lions’ best offensive threat with a career-best 136 rushing yards, marking his second straight game of 100 or more. In the third quarter, Swift ran for a career-long 57-yard touchdown, which was the longest rushing touchdown by a Lions player since Jahvid Best had an 88-yarder against the Chicago Bears in Week 5 of 2011. The play was the lone bright spot on offense for the team. — Eric Woodyard

Should the Lions continue to start Tim Boyle when Jared Goff gets healthy? No. Although he didn’t play terribly, Boyle doesn’t look like the long-term answer for this team, either. He ended with just 77 passing yards for the game and didn’t do anything spectacular enough to take over Goff’s job on a permanent basis. His approach was much like Goff’s, too, opting for check-down passes and not experiencing much success on throws of 10 or more yards. — Woodyard

Woodyard’s confidence rating (0-10): 2.3, down from 2.5. The performance in Cleveland was just another example of what we already knew about this team: What they lack in talent, they try to make up for in competitiveness. But they just don’t have enough firepower on the roster.

Next game: vs. Bears (Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Eagles

What to know: The Eagles have officially entered the playoff conversation. With their win over New Orleans, they now have a 40% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. It would have dropped to 11% with a loss, showing the significance of this game. Both sides of the ball have hit its stride. Coach Nick Sirianni’s offense rushed for 175-plus yards for the fourth straight game — their longest streak since the 1950 season, according to the Eagles — while the defense caused three turnovers and played winning football for the third time in four games. The Eagles entered Week 11 with the second-easiest closing schedule in the NFL, and with tiebreakers over the Saints, Falcons and Panthers, they are in good position to make a serious charge at a wild-card spot. — Tim McManus

Is Jalen Hurts on his way to securing the QB job long-term? He’s making a pretty compelling case. Hurts rushed for 71 yards and three touchdowns against the top rush defense in the NFL, capping his day with an Allen Iverson-like cutback en route to a 24-yard TD run that put the home crowd in a frenzy. He now has three games with multiple rushing TDs this season. In the past 20 years, Cam Newton is the only other QB to pull that off, per ESPN Stats & Information. With as many as three first-round picks in April’s draft, much of the talk has been about using that capital to bring in a top-end QB. Hurts is trying to prove they already have one in-house. — McManus

McManus’ confidence rating (0-10): 5.9, up from 4.8. The Eagles took their lumps early in the season under first-year head coach Sirianni, but with the teeth of their schedule behind them, the momentum should continue to build.

Next game: at Giants (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

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Darius Slay scores his third touchdown in four games with this 49-yard interception return.


Saints

What to know: The Saints’ season is officially on the brink after losing three straight games — for the first time since 2016 — and falling to 5-5. The schedule doesn’t get easier with the Bills and Cowboys coming into New Orleans over the next two Thursday nights. The hope is that the magnitude of Sunday’s flop was somewhat of an anomaly since they were without running back Alvin Kamara and offensive tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk (all of whom should be back soon). But the Saints’ passing offense has struggled even at full strength this year, and this was also a step back for the defense. — Mike Triplett

Are we getting closer to seeing Taysom Hill at quarterback? The Saints have to consider anything that will shake up this sagging offense. For the third straight week, QB Trevor Siemian finished strong in the fourth quarter after he struggled mightily early in the game. He completed 22 of 40 passes for 214 yards and three touchdowns, with one TD run and his first two interceptions of the season. Hill’s health is a factor, too. He barely practiced all week with a foot injury, then he was held out of his usual role as a runner/receiver Sunday while serving as New Orleans’ only backup. And the Saints have only three days between games this week. — Triplett

Triplett’s confidence rating (0-10): 5.5, down from 6.5. The only glimmer of hope here is that the Saints showed how high their ceiling can be earlier this season. But they have now squandered the head start they built up against the rest of the NFC’s playoff contenders (including Philly).

Next game: vs. Bills (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Ravens

What to know: The Ravens can win without quarterback Lamar Jackson. For most of the game, it wasn’t pretty or exciting. But with Jackson out with an illness, backup Tyler Huntley led Baltimore on a winning drive in the final minute. His 30-yard pass to Sammy Watkins set up Devonta Freeman’s go-ahead, 3-yard touchdown with 22 seconds remaining. This was an improbable and gutsy win considering the Ravens were without an MVP candidate in Jackson and top wide receiver in Marquise Brown (thigh) and they have 13 players on injured reserve. — Jamison Hensley

Will the Ravens’ defense ever solve its big-play issues? It’s nearly the same script every game. Baltimore plays shutdown defense before a costly mistake ruins it. On Sunday, the big plays nearly cost the Ravens the game. Ravens cornerback Chris Westry allowed a 49-yard touchdown on fourth-and-11 with under two minutes left in the game. The other Bears touchdown came on a 60-yard wide receiver screen to Darrell Mooney. Baltimore has given up 11 passes of 40 yards or more, tied for the most in the NFL. — Hensley

Hensley’s confidence rating (0-10): 7.6, up from 7.5. The Ravens know they need to play better heading into the toughest part of their schedule, where they don’t face another team with a losing record in the final seven weeks.

Next game: vs. Browns (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)


Bears

What to know: Ugly, ugly, ugly. The Bears found a way to lose to a Ravens team without quarterback Lamar Jackson. Chicago’s defense allowed Baltimore backup Tyler Huntley to do enough to set up Justin Tucker for three field goals, and then lead a last-second scoring drive to squeeze out the victory. Too bad, because it ruined Andy Dalton’s memorable afternoon. Dalton, who entered the game in the third quarter after Justin Fields left with a rib injury, promptly hit Darnell Mooney on a wide receiver screen early in the third quarter and let the speedster do the rest. Mooney broke a pair of tackles and then turned on the jets to outrace the Ravens’ defense for a 60-yard touchdown. Dalton later tossed what appeared to be the winning touchdown pass to Marquise Goodwin on fourth down with under two minutes left, until Chicago’s defense collapsed at the end. The game represented a form of redemption for Dalton, who lost his starting job to Fields when he got hurt early in the season. But this was a game the Bears had to win. At 3-7, the Bears’ season has all but slipped away. — Jeff Dickerson

Is there another quarterback controversy in Chicago? Probably not. The job belongs to Fields when he’s healthy. Of course, there is a scenario where next week’s tight turnaround — the Bears play on Thanksgiving Day at 12:30 p.m. ET in Detroit — makes it difficult for Fields to play, depending on the severity of his injury. Dalton is nice insurance, but the organization is focused on developing Fields for the future. The moment Fields receives the medical clearance to play, the rookie will be back out there, and Dalton will return to the bench. — Dickerson

Dickerson’s confidence rating (0-10): 2, down from 2.5. The Bears can’t even beat the Ravens without Lamar Jackson. Good luck the rest of the way.

Next game: at Lions (Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Washington

What to know: Washington continues to lose bodies yet somehow wins games. It was missing its top two tight ends and both starting defensive ends and needed to turn to its third center during the game. Yet it kept finding a way to stick around. A lot of credit goes to quarterback Taylor Heinicke, who played a smart and gutsy game. The day was supposed to be about the Panthers’ Cam Newton, but Heinicke threw three touchdown passes, completed 16 of 22 throws and ran for 31 yards. On the game-winning drive, he completed a fourth-down pass in which he had to scramble and was nearly sacked. Running back Antonio Gibson was benched for a couple of series after a fumble, yet he responded with 95 hard-earned yards. They have a lot of confidence and have made the final stretch a lot more interesting. Their mindset is terrific. — John Keim

Can Washington sustain this level of play? Why not? Washington’s defense is playing well — it has held three consecutive opponents under 300 yards. It will get end Montez Sweat back in a few weeks, which will help. But a big key has been the play of the secondary, especially Kam Curl and Landon Collins. Curl’s ability to cover Christian McCaffrey helped on a couple of throws, including a late tackle on fourth down. The offense has found a rhythm and, more important, an identity. Washington’s commitment to the run game has allowed it to play more physically and limit Taylor Heinicke’s dropbacks. His efficiency the past two weeks has been terrific — a combined 12 incompletions. — Keim

Keim’s confidence rating (0-10): 5.9, up from 5. The ability to overcome mistakes and bad plays happens when you play with confidence. Washington is playing with a lot of confidence; it has had numerous chances to buckle the past two weeks, yet it keeps overcoming, thanks to its mindset.

Next game: vs. Seahawks (Monday, Nov. 29, 8:15 p.m. ET)

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Taylor Heinicke finds Terry McLaurin in the end zone to even the score just before the end of the half.


Panthers

What to know: Cam Newton did his part. He brought energy and playmaking, throwing two touchdown passes and rushing for another (24 yards). The league’s No. 2 defense that this team is being built around didn’t do its part. The Panthers (5-6) were beaten by Taylor Heinicke, another former Carolina quarterback, who threw three touchdown passes and engineered the game-winning field goal with a clutch fourth-down pass. Newton’s biggest mistake was throwing a late fourth-down pass short of the line of scrimmage. — David Newton

Can the Panthers be a real playoff contender and have a losing record at home? Newton said the goal this week was to reclaim Bank of America Stadium, where the Panthers were dominant during their past playoff runs under the quarterback. He gave away 50 tickets to help the cause. Instead, Carolina lost its fourth straight at home to fall to 2-4 there this season. The Panthers now have lost to the Eagles, Vikings, Patriots and Washington. Not a good résumé for a serious playoff contender. — Newton

Newton’s confidence rating (0-10): 4.9, down from 5.4. The schedule gets tougher after next week’s game at Miami, with two games against the Bucs and road games against Buffalo and New Orleans making it hard to imagine the Panthers can win enough to be a factor in the NFC.

Next game: at Dolphins (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Dolphins

What to know: In basketball, sometimes shooters need to see the ball go through the hoop to end a cold streak — different sport but same concept here. The Dolphins have now won three straight after a seven-game losing streak, and it appears that the fix to their cold streak was simply getting another win under their belts. For the first time this season, Miami’s offensive line didn’t look like a sieve, and for just the third time, its run game topped 100 rushing yards (115). Safety Eric Rowe said winning games validated the team’s efforts and built up its confidence, which was fading after they didn’t see positive results on game day for a month and a half. The Dolphins are making big plays on both sides of the ball and finishing games; there’s hope for this team yet. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Has Miami’s offense been too reliant on big plays these past two weeks? Over the past two games, the Dolphins have hit on plays of 52, 64 and 65 yards. Outside of those three plays, they have averaged just 4.5 yards per play. Entering Week 11, the Bears rank last in the NFL in that category at 4.7 yards. Look, part of football is capitalizing on your opponents’ mistakes — which is what Miami has been able to do these past two weeks. But it will have to figure out ways to move the ball effectively between those big plays. — Louis-Jacques

Louis-Jacques’ confidence rating (0-10): 6.5, up from 6. It wasn’t pretty, but the Dolphins did enough to win a game that they should have won; they’re rolling as they prepare for a 32-day stretch of not having to leave South Florida.

Next game: vs. Panthers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)


Jets

What to know: Coach Robert Saleh made the right call by replacing Mike White with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Too bad he couldn’t replace a bunch of other players, including kicker Matt Ammendola (two FG misses). Flacco, the surprise choice to start, did what was expected. For the most part, the savvy pro handled the Dolphins’ prolific blitz. He made a couple of mistakes, but he didn’t stall the offense and fed the ball to emerging rookie Elijah Moore (eight catches, 141 yards, one TD). Flacco finished with 291 yards and two TD passes. The Jets were doomed by dumb penalties and a major coverage breakdown in the secondary, resulting in a 65-yard touchdown. What they need now is to get rookie QB Zach Wilson (knee) back in the lineup. If he’s healthy, he should start. Period. No controversy. — Rich Cimini

Will the Jets lose the rest of their games? Don’t snicker; it’s a legit question. The Dolphins (4-7) were supposed to be one of the soft spots on the schedule, but the Jets were handled at home. If they fall to the pathetic Houston Texans (2-8) next Sunday on the road, where will they get a win? They face the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8), but you can’t win if you can’t stop anybody. Right now, the Jets’ defense, gutted by injuries, is a shell of its former self — and its former self wasn’t too good. — Cimini

Cimini’s confidence rating (0-10): 3.5, up from 2.5. Well, at least they didn’t get blown out. That’s what this season has deteriorated to.

Next game: at Texans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Colts

What to know: Finally. It took nearly a year, but the Colts have finally ended their eight-game losing streak against playoff teams from last season. They didn’t just end it — the Colts did it in the fashion that showed they’re right in the thick of the AFC playoff race while moving above .500 for the first time all season. The Colts led from start to finish and had some Buffalo fans heading to the door with about four minutes left in the third quarter after they forced three turnovers and were leading 31-7. Looking ahead, the challenge doesn’t get any easier for the Colts, who are still on the outside looking in. Four of their remaining six games are against teams with a winning record, starting with Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Indianapolis in Week 12. — Mike Wells

Is Jonathan Taylor the best running back in the league? Yes, especially with Tennessee’s Derrick Henry potentially sidelined for the rest of the season with a foot injury. Taylor racked up 185 rushing yards and five touchdowns (four rushing, one receiving). It marked the 18th time in NFL history a player scored five touchdowns in a single game. He now leads the NFL with 1,122 rushing yards, and barring any kind of injury, he’ll likely remain at the top of the list the rest of the season because the Colts will continue to lean on him down the stretch. — Wells

Wells’ confidence rating (0-10): 5, up from 3.9. Sunday’s victory over the Bills was the Colts’ most impressive win since they won at Kansas City in October 2019.

Next game: vs. Buccaneers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)


Bills

What to know: The Bills’ No. 1 defense looked far from it against a Colts offense that has been inconsistent this year and came into the game ranked 12th in the league. The defense was without starting defensive tackle Star Lotulelei, who is on the COVID-19 list, and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring), but even while keeping those absences in mind, Buffalo’s run defense has had a hard time stopping the game’s best running backs. Coming into the game, it was clear that the Colts would try to run the ball with the success Derrick Henry had (143 yards) against this defense in Week 6. Even with that knowledge, Jonathan Taylor scored five touchdowns and rushed for 185 yards. The Bills entered Sunday having allowed five TDs to running backs this season (tied for fourth fewest). Taylor reached that in three quarters. The Colts’ 264 rushing yards are the most by a Bills opponent in the last five seasons. — Alaina Getzenberg

Do the Bills have a serious problem on special teams? Something has to get corrected, because the rain-soaked turf wasn’t the cause of all the special teams woes. The worst play of the day — on an afternoon with many rough moments — was returner Isaiah McKenzie fumbling the football untouched on a kickoff return in the second quarter. The Colts recovered the football at the Bills’ 2-yard line and took it in for a touchdown on the next play. Kicker Tyler Bass also missed two field goals (from 57 and 49 yards) on a wet field. Bass had made 16 straight field goal attempts entering the day, and it’s the first time he has missed two field goals in a game since Week 7 of last year. Going forward, Bass will likely get things corrected, but this wasn’t McKenzie’s first time losing the football. For a team that places such importance on special teams, there have been too many clumsy plays this year. — Getzenberg

Getzenberg’s confidence rating (0-10): 7.2, down from 7.8. This confidence rating has been so up and down for the Bills over the past few weeks — good performances have been quickly erased by disasters, including this loss to the Colts with all three phases falling short — and the Bills have a lot to prove before this rating can go significantly up again.

Next game: at Saints (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

49ers

What to know: The 49ers have won two straight in dominating fashion and increasingly look like a legitimate NFC playoff contender. A convincing win against the Jaguars isn’t a huge feat in itself, but it’s exactly the type of performance a team with real postseason aspirations would have. And it shouldn’t be sold short considering the Niners were coming off a short week and traveling across the country for an early body clock start. At 5-5 with seven games to play, the real tests await, including next week against fellow wild-card contender Minnesota, but the 49ers handled business as they should have, something that hadn’t happened much prior to Sunday. — Nick Wagoner

Are the 49ers on their way to an offensive drive that eats up an entire quarter? It sure looks like it. On Sunday, the Niners opened the game with a drive that ate up a whopping 13:05, the longest drive by a team this season and the longest of any team in the past 20 years, according to ESPN Stats & Info. In consecutive weeks, San Francisco’s offense has posted the two longest drives of the season (11:03 last week). Is it a coincidence? To some extent, yes, but the Niners are clearly fine with using the opening drive to assert physical dominance and rolling from there. The only problem on Sunday was it ended with a field goal instead of a touchdown. Either way, those kinds of drives set a tone that is difficult to overcome. — Wagoner

Wagoner’s confidence rating (0-10): 5.8, up from 5.3. The Niners’ embarrassing loss to Arizona two weeks ago seems like a distant memory, and they appear to be rounding into form with some key games coming up.

Next game: vs. Vikings (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

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Jimmy Garoppolo stands in the pocket and throws a dart to Brandon Aiyuk for the 7-yard touchdown.


Jaguars

What to know: An already limited Jaguars offense is dead in the water without a healthy James Robinson, and unfortunately he’s going to be battling his knee/heel injuries the rest of the year. He just doesn’t have the same burst he did before the injuries. That means the offense is going to be all on Trevor Lawrence‘s shoulders. That’s an unfair ask for a rookie, especially with the Jaguars’ unimpressive group of receivers, and it’s a burden for which he’s not ready. — Mike DiRocco

What do the Jaguars do at cornerback? Shaquill Griffin left the game with a concussion and Tyson Campbell suffered a shoulder injury. That left Nevin Lawson and Chris Claybrooks as the top two corners — possibly for the near future. The Jaguars have the Falcons and Rams the next two weeks. The Jaguars had been relatively healthy all year until Sunday, when five key players got hurt. — DiRocco

DiRocco’s confidence rating (0-10): 1.5, down from 3. Penalties and turnovers, inept offense, failure to get off the field on third down … just an awful performance against a team that played on Monday night, flew across country, and kicked off at 10 a.m. PT.

Next game: vs. Falcons (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Patriots

What to know: The Patriots’ defense is legit. In each of the past three games, the unit has allowed no more than seven points and 250 yards. They’re only the third defense in the past 15 seasons with a streak that long, and the other two teams made the Super Bowl — the 49ers in 2019 and Seahawks in 2014. A physical defensive front makes it tough to run against them, and the defensive backs are ballhawks. The Patriots intercepted a pass on four straight drives to end Thursday’s game, which is the second time under Bill Belichick they’ve recorded an interception on four straight drives, with the last time coming in 2001. — Mike Reiss

Are the Patriots the best team in the AFC? No one would have been asking that question five weeks ago when they were 2-4. But winners of five in a row, the Patriots are now one of the hottest teams in the NFL, playing complementary football with a hard-hitting D, an efficient offense, and solid special teams. The Titans and Bills are among the teams that can stake a claim to top-of-the-AFC standing, and as it turns out, the Patriots play them in three of their next four games (Titans on Oct. 28, Bills on Dec. 6 and Dec. 26). That will be telling. — Reiss

Reiss’ confidence rating (0-10): 6.5, up from 6. Five wins in a row, and playing such a physical game on a Sunday-to-Thursday turnaround, highlights a team that has found its identity.

Next game: vs. Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)


Falcons

What to know: The Falcons are in a bad place at the moment. They haven’t scored a touchdown in more than 130 minutes of football and offensively there are problems. The offensive line is struggling to block. The running game is essentially nonexistent. Matt Ryan threw two interceptions and had his second straight subpar game. Yes, these losses were against good teams, but that also tells you where the Falcons are as a team. — Michael Rothstein

How does Atlanta solve its offensive problems? Falcons coach Arthur Smith said they have to evaluate everything during the team’s mini-bye over the weekend, and while there aren’t any easy answers, there need to be some answers. Whether that’s shaking up the interior of the offensive line or as simple as getting a healthy Cordarrelle Patterson back, something has to shift — otherwise Atlanta might not win many more games this season. — Rothstein

Rothstein’s confidence rating (0-10): 3.4, down from 4. Two games without a touchdown leads to a franchise in flux.

Next game: vs. Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

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Kershaw joins the 3K club! Where does he rank among pitchers with 3,000 strikeouts?

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Kershaw joins the 3K club! Where does he rank among pitchers with 3,000 strikeouts?

The 3,000-strikeout club has grown by one, with Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers whiffing the Chicago White Sox‘s Vinny Capra in the sixth inning Wednesday at Dodger Stadium, becoming the 20th pitcher in baseball history to reach that milestone.

The 3K pitching club doesn’t generate as much hullabaloo as its hitting counterpart, but it is more exclusive: Thirty-three players have reached 3,000 hits.

When you look at the list of pitchers with 3,000 strikeouts, and Kershaw’s place on it, a few things jump out.

• None of them pitched at Ebbets Field, at least not in a regular-season game. I frame it like that to illustrate that this level of whiffery is a fairly recent phenomenon. The Dodgers bolted Brooklyn after the 1957 season, and at that point, Walter Johnson was the only member of the 3,000-strikeout club. A career Washington Senator, he never pitched against the Dodgers. Every other 3K member made his big league debut in 1959 or later. Half of them debuted in 1984 or later. Three of them (Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander) are active.

• For now, Kershaw has thrown the fewest career innings of any 3K member, though he’s likely to eventually end up with more frames than Pedro Martinez.

• Kershaw has the highest winning percentage of the 20 (.697) and the best ERA+ (155), though his edges over Martinez (.685 and 154) are razor thin.

• Kershaw tops the list in average game score (61.9) and is tied for second (with Bob Gibson) for quality start percentage (68%), behind only Tom Seaver (70%).

• Kershaw lags behind in bWAR, at least among this group of current, future and should-be Hall of Famers with 77.1, ranking 16th.

So where does Kershaw really rank in the 3K club? I’m glad you asked.

First, what should be obvious from the above bullet points is that the response to the question will vary according to how you choose to answer it. The ranking below reflects not only how I chose to answer the question but how I’d like to see starting pitchers rated in general — even today, in the wildly different context from the days of Walter Johnson.

1. Roger Clemens

FWP: 568.8 | Strikeouts: 4,672 (3rd in MLB history)

Game score W-L: 477-230 (.675)

The top three pitchers on the list, including Rocket, match the modern-era top three for all pitchers, not just the 3K guys. (The string is broken by fourth-place Christy Mathewson.) Before running the numbers, I figured Walter Johnson, with his modern-era record of 417 career wins (the old-fashioned variety), would top the list. But Clemens actually started more games (relief appearances don’t factor in) and had a better game score win percentage.


2. Randy Johnson

FWP: 532.9 | Strikeouts: 4,875 (2nd)

Game score W-L: 421-182 (.698)

Since we’re lopping off pre-1901 performances, the method does Cy Young dirty. Only two pitchers — Young (511 wins) and Walter Johnson got to 400 career wins by the traditional method. By the game score method, the club grows to nine, including a bunch of players many of us actually got to see play. The Big Unit is one of the new 400-game winners, and of the nine, his game score winning percentage is the highest. The only thing keeping Johnson from No. 1 on this list is that he logged 104 fewer career starts than Clemens.


3. Walter Johnson

FWP: 494.7 | Strikeouts: 3,509 (9th)

Game score W-L: 437-229 (.656)

Don’t weep for the Big Train — even this revamping of his century-old performance record and the fixation on strikeouts can’t dim his greatness. That fact we mentioned in the introduction — that every 3K member except Walter Johnson debuted in 1959 or later — tells you a lot about just how much he was a man out of his time. Johnson retired after the 1927 season and surpassed 3,000 strikeouts by whiffing Cleveland’s Stan Coveleski on July 22, 1923. It was nearly 51 years before Gibson became 3K member No. 2 on July 17, 1974.


4. Greg Maddux

FWP: 443.3 | Strikeouts: 3,371 (12th)

Game score W-L: 453-287 (.612)

There is a stark contrast between pitcher No. 4 and pitcher No. 5 on this ranking. The wild thing about Maddux ranking above Nolan Ryan in a group selected for strikeouts is that no one thinks of Maddux as a strikeout pitcher. He never led a league in whiffs and topped 200 just once (204 in 1998). He was just an amazingly good pitcher for a really long time.


5. Nolan Ryan

FWP: 443.1 | Strikeouts: 5,714 (1st)

Game score W-L: 467-306 (.604)

Ryan is without a doubt the greatest strikeout pitcher who ever lived, and it’s really hard to imagine someone surpassing him. This is a guy who struck out his first six batters in 1966, when Lyndon Johnson was in the White House, and his last 46 in 1993, when Bill Clinton was there. Ryan was often criticized during his heyday for his win-loss record, but the game score method clears that right up. Ryan’s revised winning percentage (.604) is markedly higher than his actual percentage (.526).


6. Max Scherzer

FWP: 385.7 | Strikeouts: 3,419 (11th)

Game score W-L: 315-145 (.685)

Here’s another club Mad Max is in: .680 or better game score winning percentage, minimum 100 career starts. He’s one of just eight members, along with Kershaw. The list is topped by Smoky Joe Wood, who dominated the AL during the 1910s before hurting his arm and converting into a full-time outfielder. The full list: Wood, Martinez, Randy Johnson, Lefty Grove, Mathewson, Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Scherzer.


7. Justin Verlander

FWP: 385.0 | Strikeouts: 3,471 (10th)

Game score W-L: 349-190 (.647)

Like Scherzer, Verlander is fresh off the injured list. Thus, the two active leaders in our version of FWP have resumed their tight battle for permanent supremacy. Both also resume their quests to become the 10th and 11th pitchers to reach 3,500 strikeouts. Verlander, who hasn’t earned a traditional win in 13 starts, is 4-9 this season by the game score method.


8. Pedro Martinez

FWP: 383.5 | Strikeouts: 3,154 (15th)

Game score W-L: 292-117 (.714)

By so many measures, Martinez is one of the greatest of all time, even if his career volume didn’t reach the same levels as those of the others on the list. His 409 career starts are easily the fewest of the 3K club. But he has the highest game score winning percentage and, likewise, the highest score for FWP per start (.938).


9. Steve Carlton

FWP: 379.8 | Strikeouts: 4,136 (4th)

Game score W-L: 420-289 (.592)

When you think of Lefty, you think of his 1972 season, when he went 27-10 (traditional method) for a Phillies team that went 59-97. What does the game score method think of that season? It hates it. Kidding! No, Carlton, as you’d expect, dominated, going 32-9. So think of it like this: There were 32 times in 1972 that Carlton outpitched his starting counterpart despite the lethargic offense behind him.


10. Tom Seaver

FWP: 371.3 | Strikeouts: 3,640 (6th)

Game score W-L: 391-256 (.604)

Perhaps no other pitcher of his time demonstrated a more lethal combination of dominance and consistency than Seaver. The consistency is his historical differentiator. As mentioned, his career quality start percentage (70%) is tops among this group. Among all pitchers with at least 100 career starts, he ranks fifth. Dead ball era pitchers get a leg up in this stat, so the leader is the fairly anonymous Jeff Tesreau (72%), a standout for John McGraw’s New York Giants during the 1910s. The others ahead of Seaver are a fascinating bunch. One is Babe Ruth, and another is Ernie Shore, who in 1917 relieved Ruth when The Babe was ejected after walking a batter to start a game. Shore replaced him, picked off the batter who walked, then went on to retire all 26 batters he faced. The other ahead of Seaver: Jacob deGrom.


11. Clayton Kershaw

FWP: 370.9 | Strikeouts: 3,000 (20th)

Game score W-L: 301-137 (.687)

And here’s the guest of honor, our reason for doing this ranking exercise. As you can see, Kershaw joined the 300-game-score win club in his last start before Wednesday’s milestone game, becoming the 38th member. In so many measures of dominance, consistency and efficiency, Kershaw ranks as one of the very best pitchers of all time. When you think that he, Verlander and Scherzer are all in the waning years of Hall of Fame careers, you can’t help but wonder who, if anyone, is going to join some of the elite starting pitching statistical clubs in the future.


12. Don Sutton

FWP: 370.6 | Strikeouts: 3,574 (7th)

Game score W-L: 437-319 (.578)

For a post-dead ball pitcher, Sutton was a model of durability. He ranks third in career starts (756) and seventh in innings (5,283⅓). During the first 15 seasons of his career, Sutton started 31 or more games 14 times and threw at least 207 innings for the Dodgers in every season.


13. Ferguson Jenkins

FWP: 353.8 | Strikeouts: 3,192 (14th)

Game score W-L: 363-231 (.611)

Jenkins is in the Hall of Fame, so we can’t exactly say he was overlooked. Still, it does feel like he’s a bit underrated on the historical scale. His FWP score ranks 17th among all pitchers, and the game score method gives him a significant win-loss boost. That .611 percentage you see here is a good bit higher than his actual .557 career winning percentage. He just didn’t play for very many good teams and, in fact, never appeared in the postseason. He’s not the only Hall of Famer associated with the Chicago Cubs who suffered that fate.


14. Gaylord Perry

FWP: 335.6 | Strikeouts: 3,534 (8th)

Game score W-L: 398-292 (.577)

Perry, famous for doing, uh, whatever it takes to win a game, famously hung around past his expiration date to get to 300 wins, and he ended up with 314. Poor Perry: If my game score method had been in effect, he’d have quit two wins shy of 400. Would someone have given him a shot at getting there in 1984, when he was 45? One of history’s great what-if questions.


15. Phil Niekro

FWP: 332.5 | Strikeouts: 3,342 (13th)

Game score W-L: 408-308 (.570)

Knucksie won 318 games, and lost 274, the type of career exemplified by his 1979 season, when he went 21-20. We aren’t likely to see anyone again pair a 20-win season with a 20-loss season. His .537 traditional winning percentage improves with the game score method, but he’s still the low man in the 3K club in that column. Niekro joins Ryan and Sutton on the list of those with 300 game score losses. Sutton, at 319, is the leader. The others: Tommy John, Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer. Of course, they were all safely over the 300-game-score win threshold as well.


16. CC Sabathia

FWP: 323.2 | Strikeouts: 3,093 (18th)

Game score W-L: 339-221 (.605)

Sabathia will be inducted into the Hall of Fame next month, and his place in this group only underscores how deserving he is of that honor. Sabathia debuted in 2001, and to reach the 250 traditional-win level (he won 251) in this era is an amazing feat. The only pitcher in that club who debuted later is Verlander, stuck at 262 wins after debuting in 2005. Right now, it’s hard to imagine who, if anyone, will be next. Of course, if we just went with game score wins, that would be different.


17. Bob Gibson

FWP: 321.0 | Strikeouts: 3,117 (16th)

Game score W-L: 305-177 (.633)

Gibson, incidentally, also won 251 games — and also gets enough boost from the game score method to climb over 300. His revised percentage is better than his traditional mark of .591. His average game score ranks third in this group, a reflection of his steady dominance but also of the era in which he pitched. Gibson is tied for eighth in quality start percentage among all pitchers. In 1968, when Gibson owned the baseball world with a 1.12 ERA, he went 22-9 by the traditional method. The game score method: 26-8. You’d think it would be even better, but it was, after all, the Year of the Pitcher.


18. Bert Blyleven

FWP: 320.2 | Strikeouts: 3,701 (5th)

Game score W-L: 391-294 (.571)

It took a prolonged campaign by statheads to raise awareness about Blyleven’s greatness and aid his eventual Cooperstown induction. He finished with 287 traditional wins, short of the historical benchmark. Here he would fall short of the 400-win benchmark, but, nevertheless, he is tied with John and Seaver for 11th on the game score wins list. His actual winning percentage was .534.


19. Curt Schilling

FWP: 307.1 | Strikeouts: 3,116 (17th)

Game score W-L: 281-155 (.644)

There are 31 pitchers who have broken the 300 FWP level, and it’s hard for me to imagine how anyone in that group could be left out of Cooperstown. You can sort this out for yourself in terms of baseball and not baseball reasons for this, but the group not there is Clemens, Schilling, John and Andy Pettitte, plus the greats (Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer) who are still active.


20. John Smoltz

FWP: 273.8 | Strikeouts: 3,084 (19th)

Game score W-L: 290-191 (.603)

Smoltz won 213 games the traditional way, and he falls just short of 300 by the revised method. But all of this is about starting pitching, and with Smoltz, that overlooks a lot. After missing the 2000 season because of injury, he returned as a reliever, and for four seasons he was one of the best, logging 154 saves during that time. He’s the only member of the 200-win, 100-save club.

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Dodgers’ Muncy (knee) helped off, set for MRI

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Dodgers' Muncy (knee) helped off, set for MRI

LOS ANGELES — Clayton Kershaw‘s 3,000th career strikeout was preceded by a scary, dispiriting moment, when Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy injured his left knee and had to be helped off the field Wednesday night.

Muncy is set to undergo an MRI on Thursday, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said initial tests have them feeling “optimistic” and that the “hope” is Muncy only sustained a sprain.

With one out in the sixth inning, Muncy jumped to catch a throw from Dodgers catcher Will Smith, then tagged out Chicago White Sox center fielder Michael A. Taylor on an attempted steal and immediately clutched his left knee, prompting a visit from Roberts and head trainer Thomas Albert.

Muncy wrapped his left arm around Albert and walked toward the third-base dugout, replaced by Enrique Hernandez. His injury, caused by Taylor’s helmet slamming into the side of his left knee on a headfirst slide, was so gruesome that the team’s broadcast opted not to show a replay.

Taylor also exited the game with what initially was diagnosed as a left trap contusion.

The Dodgers went on to win 5-4 on Freddie Freeman‘s walk-off single that scored Shohei Ohtani.

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Kershaw becomes MLB’s 4th lefty with 3,000 K’s

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Kershaw becomes MLB's 4th lefty with 3,000 K's

LOS ANGELES — His start prolonged, the whiffs remained elusive, and the Dodger Stadium crowd became increasingly concerned that Clayton Kershaw might not reach a hallowed milestone in front of them Wednesday. Finally, with two outs in the sixth inning, on his 100th pitch of the night, it happened — an outside-corner slider to freeze Chicago White Sox third baseman Vinny Capra and make Kershaw the 20th member of the 3,000-strikeout club.

Kershaw came off the mound and waved his cap to a sold-out crowd that had risen in appreciation. His teammates then greeted him on the field, dispersing hugs before a tribute video played on the scoreboard, after which Kershaw spilled out of the dugout to greet the fans once more.

Kershaw, the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ longtime ace, is just the fourth lefty to reach 3,000 strikeouts, joining Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton and CC Sabathia. He is one of just five pitchers to accumulate that many with one team, along with Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton and John Smoltz. The only other active pitchers who reached 3,000 strikeouts are the two who have often been lumped with Kershaw among the greatest pitchers of this era: Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, the latter of whom reached the milestone as a member of the Dodgers in September 2021.

Kershaw’s first strikeout accounted for the first out of the third inning — immediately after Austin Slater’s two-run homer gave the White Sox a 3-2 lead. Former Dodger Miguel Vargas fell behind in the count 0-2, becoming the ninth batter to get to two strikes against Kershaw, then swung through a curveball low and away. The next strikeout, No. 2,999 of his career, came on his season-high-tying 92nd pitch of the night, a curveball that landed well in front of home plate and induced a swing-and-miss from Lenyn Sosa to end the fifth inning.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts did not even look at Kershaw as he made his way back into the dugout, a clear sign that Kershaw would not be taken out. The crowd erupted as Kershaw took the mound for the start of the sixth inning. Mike Tauchman grounded out and Michael A. Taylor hit a double, then was caught stealing on a play that prompted Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy to come down hard on his left knee, forcing him to be helped off the field.

The mood suddenly turned somber at Dodger Stadium. Then, four pitches later, came elation.

Kershaw reached 3,000 strikeouts in 2,787⅓ innings, making him the fourth-fastest player to reach the mark, according to research from the Elias Sports Bureau. The only ones who got there with fewer innings were Johnson (2,470⅔), Scherzer (2,516) and Pedro Martinez (2,647⅔).

The Dodgers came back to win 5-4, capping their rally with three runs in the bottom of the ninth.

Before the game, Roberts called the 3,000-strikeout milestone “the last box” of a Hall of Fame career — one whose spot in Cooperstown had already been cemented by three Cy Young Awards, 10 All-Star Games, an MVP, five ERA titles and more than 200 wins.

Kershaw’s 2.51 ERA is the lowest in the Live Ball era (since 1920) among those with at least 1,500 innings, even though Kershaw has nearly doubled that. He was a force early, averaging 200 innings and 218 strikeouts per season from 2010 to 2019. And he was a wonder late, finding ways to continually keep opposing lineups in check with his body aching and his fastball down into the high 80s.

Kershaw went on the injured list at least once every year from 2016 to 2024. A foot injury made him a spectator last October, when the Dodgers claimed their second championship in five years. The following month, Kershaw underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee and a ruptured plantar plate in his left big toe, then re-signed with the Dodgers and joined the rotation in mid-May. He allowed five runs in four innings in his debut but went 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his next seven starts, stabilizing a shorthanded rotation that remains without Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki and Tony Gonsolin.

Since the start of 2021, Kershaw has somehow managed to put up the sixth-lowest ERA among those with at least 400 innings.

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