Have the last few weeks seen a turning point in Boris Johnson’s premiership?
Dozens of Tories have refused to follow the prime minister’s orders in the voting lobbies on issues as diverse as sleaze and social care.
Meanwhile a handful of Tory MPs have gone public with demands for change, with many more complaining in Westminster’s cafes and bars. At times, it has felt like Mr Johnson was losing his political agility.
“There are too many issues at the moment in which the government is shooting itself in the foot with issues and problems which as I say colleagues are warning and warning and warning about and that are visible from Venus, Mars even maybe visible from Pluto,” northern Tory and ex minister Andrew Percy told Sky News.
“And that has got to stop because we owe the people of this country better than that.”
Advertisement
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:30
Is PM losing Tory support?
Mr Percy hasn’t always been a rebel, though he accepts that description now.
Not that long ago he occupied the high profile portfolio of Northern Powerhouse minister until 2017 and was an early backer of Mr Johnson’s leadership in the summer of 2019.
More on Boris Johnson
Related Topics:
Nor can he just be dismissed as one of a small number of irreconcilables.
Almost one in seven Tory MPs – 52 of them – have rebelled more often than Mr Percy, according to the Public Whip website which provides a crude tally of how many times he and his colleagues have voted against their party.
Yet he is one of the few prepared to go on the record in a television interview quite so expansively with their concerns, and as he sits in his office next to a full size Yorkshire flag, he worries, the government’s political antennae is wonky.
“Those are questions that people around the prime minister and then the senior levels of government have to ask themselves.
“They have to look and see if the setup of this government is broad enough, if it is drawn wide enough from the party if it is reflective of our new voter base, if it’s reflective even of our new base on the back benches.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:17
PM asked ‘is everything okay?’ after speech
Last week, he voted like many others against the government’s social care plans because they will mean the less well off having to pay more than affluent voters before the state steps in and picks up care home bills.
Tory rebels cut the government majority from 80 to 26, setting off alarm bells across the party.
Mr Percy blasts Rishi Sunak’s department, saying their focus on keeping control of public spending is getting in the way of the party meeting its promises.
He said: “The Treasury has to be cognizant of what we promised people, what we told people, and I understand absolutely, you know, public spending is at record levels, you know, the amount of debt we are facing following COVID and all the rest of it is really, really very challenging.
“And these same conversations are happening in governments all across the world. I totally appreciate the challenge, but commitments were made, be that on rail, they were made on social care, they were put into our manifesto, people voted for us on the basis of those and therefore, you know, we need to ensure that we are making good on those promises.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:02
PM loses place in speech, uses Peppa Pig joke
Beneath the surface this argument, between Tories who want to spend whatever it takes to deliver for voters, and those who think strong public finances are the bedrock of the Tory claim to competence.
Not all promises cost money, however, and Tories across the party are worried one of their biggest weaknesses stems from making offers that never materialise.
Ex-minister Tim Loughton, now a Tory on the home affairs select committee, points the finger firmly at France for the migrant crisis.
However he worries that the government has talked up its ability to find a quick fix too often when it is unable to find an easy solution.
Image: Tim Loughton (front) points the finger firmly at France for the migrant crisis
“There is a genuine concern that the government has talked tough,” he told me. “The government genuinely wants this trade to end, as we all do, but we haven’t been able to achieve that on our own because most of the cards are in the hands of French.
“And perhaps it wasn’t wise to overpromise when we couldn’t rely on the partnership we need to solve this.”
Soon there will be two opportunities for voters to pass their verdict, with two traditionally safe Tory seats heading to the polls for a byelection.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:13
PM’s letter stirs controversy
This Thursday will see the vote in Bexley and Old Sidcup where the south London voters will choose a successor to popular minister James Brokenshire, who died of cancer in October.
Two weeks later, voters in North Shropshire will elect a successor to disgraced ex-minister Owen Paterson. Few expect an upset in Bexley, although some Liberal Democrats say they are putting in a concerted effort in Shropshire.
On the streets of Bexley, however, there was little sign of danger for Mr Johnson, where at times voters appeared more forgiving than his own MPs.
Tory voters there talk of Mr Johnson going “off the boil” and “fumbling” and doing things that mean they “lack confidence”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:50
PM ‘deeply saddened’ by migrant deaths in Channel
Asked if that means they will take their vote elsewhere, most said not, often arguing he had been dealt an unprecedented bad hand.
This could be dismissed as an outlier result in a safe Tory seat, but the national opinion polls suggest that even after the most recent few weeks, Mr Johnson’s party enjoys an advantage.
The most recent YouGov survey from last week puts the Tories on 36% and Labour on 35%.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:31
‘It’s corrupt – there’s no other word for it’
Older voters in the 65 and above category are twice as likely to vote Tory than Labour, an advantage Labour has not yet begun to directly tackle.
Meanwhile there is little sign Keir Starmer’s Labour is winning over Tory votes directly. Amongst those who voted Tory in 2019, 6% would now choose to vote for Labour but twice as many, 11%, would go for the little known Brexit Party successor, Reform UK.
The last three weeks have seen doubts about Mr Johnson in Westminster unthinkable even during Tory conference in early October, as well as calls for him to shake up his team and signs of fissures in government.
It is not yet clear those doubts in Westminster have filtered through and changed the voting habits in the country.
Nigel Farage has successfully exploited the Commons recess to “grab the mic” and “dominate” the agenda, Harriet Harman has said.
Speaking on Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the Labour peer said that the Reform UK leader has been able to “get his voice heard” while government was not in “full swing”.
Mr Farage used a speech this week to set himself, rather than Kemi Badenoch’s Tories, up as the main opposition to Sir Keir Starmer at the next election.
Baroness Harman said: “It’s slightly different between opposition and government because in government, the ministers have to be there the whole time.
“They’ve got to be putting legislation through and they kind of hold the mic.
More from Politics
“They can dominate the news media with the announcements they’re making and with the bills they’re introducing, and it’s quite hard for the opposition to get a hearing whilst the government is in full swing.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:37
‘Big cuts’ to fund other Reform UK policies
“What we used to do when we were in opposition before 1997 is that as soon as there was a bank holiday and the House was not sitting, as soon as the half-term or the summer recess, we would be on an absolute war footing and dominate the airwaves because that was our opportunity.
“And I think that’s a bit of what Farage has done this week,” Harman added.
“Basically, Farage can dominate the media agenda.”
She went on: “He’s kind of stepped forward, and he’s using this moment of the House not sitting in order to actually get his voice heard.
“It’s sensible for the opposition to take the opportunity of when the House is not sitting to kind of grab the mic and that is what Nigel Farage has done.”
But Baroness Harman said it “doesn’t seem to be what Kemi Badenoch’s doing”.
She explained that the embattled leader “doesn’t seem to be grabbing the mic like Nigel Farage has” during recess, and added that “there’s greater opportunity for the opposition”.
The UK will buy up to 7,000 long-range missiles, rockets and drones and build at least six weapons factories in a £6bn push to rearm at a time of growing threats.
The plan, announced by the government over the weekend, will form part of Sir Keir Starmer’s long-awaited Strategic Defence Review, which will be published on Monday.
However, it lacks key details, including when the first arms plant will be built, when the first missile will be made, or even what kind of missiles, drones and rockets will be purchased.
The government is yet to appoint a new senior leader to take on the job of “national armaments director”, who will oversee the whole effort.
Andy Start, the incumbent head of Defence Equipment and Support – the branch of defence charged with buying kit – is still doing the beefed-up role of national armaments director as a sluggish process to recruit someone externally rumbles on.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a presentation of Ukrainian military drones. Pic: Reuters
Revealing some of its content ahead of time, the Ministry of Defence said the defence review will recommend an “always on” production capacity for munitions, drawing on lessons learned from Ukraine, which has demonstrated the vital importance of large production lines.
It will also call for an increase in stockpiles of munitions – something that is vitally needed for the army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force to be able to keep fighting beyond a few days.
Some £1.5bn will be invested in the new factories, the government said. It said this additional funding will lift total expenditure on munitions to £6bn this parliament.
“The hard-fought lessons from [Vladimir] Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine show a military is only as strong as the industry that stands behind them,” John Healey, the defence secretary, said in a statement released on Saturday night.
“We are strengthening the UK’s industrial base to better deter our adversaries and make the UK secure at home and strong abroad.”
Image: Army Commandos load a 105mm Howitzer in Norway. Pic: Ministry of Defence/PA
The UK used to have a far more resilient defence industry during the Cold War, with the capacity to manufacture missiles and other weapons and ammunition at speed and at scale.
However, much of that depth, which costs money to sustain, was lost following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when successive governments switched funding priorities away from defence and into areas such as health, welfare and economic growth.
Even after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and a huge increase in demand from Kyiv for munitions from its allies, production lines at UK factories were slow to expand.
Image: A reaper drone in the Middle East. Pic: Ministry of Defence
Sky News visited a plant run by the defence company Thales in Belfast last year that makes N-LAW anti-tank missiles used in Ukraine. Its staff at the time only worked weekday shifts between 7am and 4pm.
Under this new initiative, the government said the UK will build at least six new “munitions and energetics” factories.
Energetic materials include explosives, propellants and pyrotechnics, which are required in the manufacturing of weapons.
There were no details, however, on whether these will be national factories or built in partnership with defence companies, or a timeline for this to happen.
There was also no information on where they would be located or what kind of weapons they would make.
Image: King Charles visits HMS Prince of Wales. Pic: PO Phot Rory Arnold/Ministry of Defence/PA
In addition, it was announced that the UK will buy “up to 7,000 UK-built long-range weapons for the UK Armed Forces”, though again without specifying what.
It is understood these weapons will include a mix of missiles, rockets and drones.
Sources within the defence industry criticised the lack of detail, which is so often the case with announcements by the Ministry of Defence.
The sources said small and medium-sized companies in particular are struggling to survive as they await clarity from the Ministry of Defence over a range of different contracts.
One source described a sense of “paralysis”.
The prime minister launched the defence review last July, almost a year ago. But there had been a sense of drift within the Ministry of Defence beforehand, in the run-up to last year’s general election.
The source said: “While the government’s intentions are laudable, the lack of detail in this announcement is indicative of how we treat defence in this country.
“Headline figures, unmatched by clear intent and delivery timelines which ultimately leave industry no closer to knowing what, or when, the MOD want their bombs and bullets.
“After nearly 18 months of decision and spending paralysis, what we need now is a clear demand signal from the Ministry of Defence that allows industry to start scaling production, not grand gestures with nothing to back it up.”
As well as rearming the nation, the government said the investment in new factories and weapons would create around 1,800 jobs across the UK.
Prison officers should be armed with lethal weapons to crack down on Islamist terrorists in jail, the shadow justice secretary has said.
Highly trained teams should also be equipped with tasers, stun grenades and baton rounds to tackle dangerous criminals in high-security jails, Robert Jenrick said.
The plan is taken from a series of recommendations by counter-extremism expert and former prison governor Ian Acheson.
It also follows several attacks on prison officers in jails.
In April this year, the Manchester Arena bomb plotter, Hashem Abedi, allegedly assaulted prison staff by throwing hot oil on them and then launching a stabbing attack, injuring three officers.
At Belmarsh prison, Southport killer Axel Rudakubana has been accused of throwing boiling water over an officer through the hatch in his cell door earlier this month.
Image: File pic: PA
Mr Jenrick said: “Islamist gangs and violent prisoners in our jails are out of control.
It’s a national security emergency, but the government is dithering. If they don’t act soon, there is a very real risk that a prison officer is kidnapped or murdered in the line of duty, or that a terrorist attack is directed from inside prison.”
He said he commissioned Mr Acheson to conduct a rapid review into measures the government could adopt.
The measures include removing all radical Islamist imams working in prisons, immediately rolling out high-collar stab vests to frontline officers, and mandating the quarterly release of data on religious conversions in prison and faith-based incidents.
It also recommended legislating to overturn the De Silva ruling to strip back judicial interference in operational decisions by governors to isolate extremists.
Mr Jenrick added: “We have to stop pussy-footing around Islamist extremists and violent offenders in jails.
“That means arming specialist prison officer teams with tasers and stun grenades, as well as giving them access to lethal weapons in exceptional circumstances.
“If prison governors can’t easily keep terrorist influencers and radicalising inmates apart from the mainstream prisoners they target, then we don’t control our prisons – they do. We must take back control and restore order by giving officers the powers and protection they need.”
Mr Acheson said: “Too often what goes wrong behind the walls of our high security jails passes unnoticed, as does the bravery of the men and women in uniform who deal every day with terrorists and other highly dangerous offenders.
“Robert Jenrick is right – the threat to officer safety is now intolerable and must be met decisively by the government.
“The balance inside too many of our prisons has shifted away from control by the state to mere containment and the price is soaring levels of staff assaults and wrecked rehabilitation. Broken officers can’t help fix broken people – or protect the public from violent extremism.”
A Ministry of Justice source said: “The government considers the introduction of lethal weapons into prisons would put prison officers at greater risk.”
They added: “The last government added just 500 cells to our prison estate, and left our jails in total crisis. In 14 years, they closed 1,600 cells in the high-security estate, staff assaults soared, and experienced officers left in droves. Now the arsonists are pretending to be firefighters.
“This government is cleaning up the mess the last government left behind. We are building new prisons, with 2,400 new cells opened since we took office. And we take a zero-tolerance approach to violence and extremism inside.”