How the falling pound affects you – and who the winners and losers are

Published

2 years ago

September 27, 2022

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Friday’s mini-budget that promised billions in tax cuts and a multi-billion pound energy price cap has seen the value of the pound plummet against foreign currencies.

The new prime minister and her chancellor’s decision to cut various taxes by a combined £45bn, alongside a cap on energy prices that will cost taxpayers £60bn has resulted in a loss of market confidence.

Lenders withdraw mortgage profits; live pound updates

That loss of confidence in the government’s ability to pay back the billions they are spending means the Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates – in a desperate bid to bring down inflation.

This all has an effect on Britain’s day-to-day spending. Here, Sky News looks at who will suffer and who will benefit from the pound’s slump.

Petrol

Fuel is traded in dollars.

This means that a low pound will buy less fuel, forcing prices at UK forecourts to rise.

Drivers will have noticed a recent dip in prices at the pumps – compared with this summer when they approached £2 a litre for diesel.

But the slump in value of the pound will likely wipe out that fall, which was a welcome relief for many.

According to the AA, a pound that equals $1.08 will mean an extra 13.5p per litre of petrol.

That would add around £7.50 to the cost of filling up an average 55-litre car, when factoring in VAT.

An AA spokesman added that had it not been for former Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s decision to cut fuel duty by 5p in March, motorists would have likely seen an even bigger increase in the price per litre – of around 18.5p.

Energy

Gas is also traded in dollars and therefore also suffers from a poor exchange rate.

As with oil, wholesale prices have dropped internationally since the start of the war in Ukraine, but with a weak pound, similarly the UK won’t experience the benefits.

Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, tells Sky News: “At this stage, this won’t affect bill payers directly, because the energy price cap is set below international energy prices, so we’ll be paying less anyway.

“Instead it will have an impact on how much the guarantee will cost the government.”

The more the price cap costs the government, the less confidence the market will have in the government’s capacity to pay it back, causing the original problem to spiral further.

Food

Any goods imported to the UK from abroad will cost more when the pound is weaker.

According to the government’s most recent food security report, the UK imports around 45% of its food.

This has proven a major problem during the Ukraine war, with grain exports unable to leave the country for several months this year.

Along with the dollar, the pound is also faring badly against the Euro, which will mean European-grown fruit and veg prices will increase.

Produce grown further afield, such as bananas, will also go up.

Not all retailers will pass all of that cost onto their customers, however.

Supermarkets are often the last to increase their prices off the back of rising costs, as they try to remain affordable, and often buy stocks in advance to mitigate sudden market shocks.

But Ms Coles cautions: “Supermarkets have warned that although they are already absorbing a great deal of the increased costs of supply, they have to pass some of it on.”

Tech

Most of our tech gadgets, such as smartphones and tablets, are manufactured abroad.

Apple, for example, is based in California, but uses parts manufactured in China and Taiwan.

Again, a week pound will mean these foreign-made products cost more in the UK.

Apple has already increased the price of its latest iPhone range. The iPhone 13 started at £949 when it launched last year. The iPhone 14 range is retailing at £1,099 – a 16% increase.

Holidays abroad

The most obvious place consumers will experience the slump in the pound is at the bureau de change.

Holidaymakers bound for the US will get particularly less for their money than they used to – but with the pound also down against the Euro, holidays to Europe will also be more expensive.

With the cost of fuel also on the rise, airlines and package holiday providers may also increase their prices to mitigate costs.

Mortgages

A weak pound means inflation – which is already at 10% – getting even higher.

When inflation is high, the Bank of England tries to bring it down by increasing interest rates.

This higher price of borrowing is designed to encourage people to borrow less, spend less, and save more.

Currently forecasts predict interest rates hitting 6% by November, which will mean huge increases in people’s mortgage repayments.

Halifax, the country’s largest mortgage provider, is removing fee-paying mortgages from Wednesday. These allow people to pay a fee in exchange for a lower interest rates.

Virgin Money and Skipton Building Society have withdrawn all their mortgage products until they have more certainty.

The two million people in the UK already on tracker and variable mortgages will see far more of their monthly pay packet spent on repayments.

And those coming to the end of a fixed rate or hoping to buy for the first time will have fewer, more expensive deals to choose from.

“The issue is the fact that fixed rate mortgages don’t just depend on the rate today, they also depend on rate expectation,” Ms Coles explains.

“The dramatic overnight change in market expectations of future rates has ramped up the cost of doing business, and lenders are taking a break to reassess and reprice.”

Pensions

People approaching retirement could suffer from UK bonds – or gilts – being sold off in response to the pound’s fall.

Some investors automatically switch people’s pensions from stocks to government bonds as they get closer to retirement age, which will leave them with a smaller pot in the current climate.

Pensioners living abroad will also suffer notably – as their pensions are paid in pounds but their expenses are in stronger currencies.

UK exporters

British businesses that sell their products and services abroad will benefit from the pound’s slump as foreign buyers look to take advantage of cheaper prices.

This will see the FTSE 100 companies benefit, as much of their money is made overseas, Ms Coles says.

It could also provide much-needed help for smaller UK businesses struggling with the increased costs of Brexit.

Local tourism

More holidaymakers could be drawn to the UK from abroad by the promise of a cheaper holiday.

While Britons get less for their money at the bureau de change, inbound tourists will get more.

For example, a London hotel room that cost $200 (£186) at the start of 2022 now only costs $150.

Britons could also return to the ‘staycation’ trend seen during the COVID pandemic and also help boost the economy by supporting tourism and hospitality businesses at home.

Hedge funds

Hedge funds employ a strategy called ‘short selling’ or ‘shorting’ to take advantage of falling market prices.

It involves borrowing shares in a firm and selling them with a view to buying them back at a profit when prices fall.

Ms Coles says: “Plenty of hedge funds were shorting the pound before the fall – based on the belief that the markets had underestimated how long inflation would stick around for.

“So these paid off when the pound tumbled.”

UK

Two men charged over migrant crossing deaths

Published

32 mins ago

April 26, 2024

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Two men charged over migrant crossing deaths

Two men have been charged in connection with the small boats crossing that led to the deaths of five people on a beach in France.

A seven-year-old girl, a woman and three men died in the incident off the coast of Wimereux in northern France.

Both men have been charged with immigration offences as part of an investigation into the deaths of the migrants, who died trying to cross the English Channel, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said.

Yien Both, a 22-year-old from South Sudan, has been charged with assisting unlawful immigration and attempting to arrive in the UK without valid entry clearance.

Tajdeen Adbulaziz Juma, a 22-year-old Sudanese national, has been charged with attempting to arrive in the UK without valid entry clearance.

The pair have been remanded in custody and are expected to appear before Folkestone Magistrates later today.

A third man, an 18-year-old from Sudan, was also arrested over the incident and has been bailed pending further enquiries.

A dinghy carrying more than 100 people set off from the French coastal town of Wimereux at around 6am on Tuesday but got into difficulty.

The boat, which launched with 112 people on board, stopped on a sandbar only a few hundred metres from the shore.

Around 49 people were rescued – but 58 others refused to leave the boat and continued their journey towards the UK, the coastguard said in a statement.

The NCA is working with Kent Police, Immigration Enforcement and Border Force to support the French-led investigation into the incident.

UK

Rwanda Bill causing migrants to head for Ireland instead of UK, deputy PM says

Published

4 hours ago

April 26, 2024

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Rwanda Bill causing migrants to head for Ireland instead of UK, deputy PM says

The threat of deportation to Rwanda is causing migrants to head for Ireland instead of the UK, Ireland’s deputy prime minister has said.

The Rwanda Bill, which will see asylum seekers “entering the UK illegally” sent to the central African nation – regardless of the outcome of their application – was passed on Tuesday, despite human rights concerns.

Micheal Martin told The Daily Telegraph that the policy was already affecting Ireland, as people were “fearful” of staying in the UK.

The former Taoiseach said: “Maybe that’s the impact it was designed to have.”

Mr Martin, who is also Ireland’s foreign secretary, said asylum seekers were seeking “to get sanctuary here and within the European Union as opposed to the potential of being deported to Rwanda”.

His words follow those of justice minister Helen McEntee, who told a scrutiny committee in the Irish parliament earlier this week that migrants and refugees were crossing the border with Northern Ireland.

Ms McEntee said “higher than 80%” of people seeking asylum in Ireland entered the country through Northern Ireland, a border crossing that is open as guaranteed under a UK-EU Brexit treaty.

It comes amid increasing tension over immigration levels in Ireland, which is grappling with a housing crisis that has affected its own people as well as asylum seekers.

Overnight, six people were arrested during a protest at a site earmarked to house asylum seekers in Newtownmountkennedy in Co Wicklow.

Gardai said officers came under attack after workers were brought onto the site, suffering “verbal and physical abuse throughout the day, which escalated into rocks and other missiles being thrown this evening”.

Fires were lit, an axe was found and officers were “forced to defend themselves” with incapacitant spray, helmets and shields.

Three patrol cars were also damaged.

Irish broadcaster RTE said protesters accused gardaí of using unnecessary force, and intimidating and aggressive tactics against a legitimate and peaceful protest.

According to RTE, there have been protests during the past six weeks at the site, known as Trudder House or River Lodge.

It is reportedly being considered as a site for 20 eight-person tents housing asylum seekers but some locals have said it is unsuitable and the village’s resources are already over-stretched.

Ms McEntee said there was “a lot of misinformation about migration at the moment”.

She tweeted late on Thursday to promote the EU Migration and Asylum Pact, which she described as “a real game changer” and “something we must opt into”.

UK

Rishi Sunak will feel ‘reset week’ was job well done – but a horrible reality check awaits

Published

4 hours ago

April 26, 2024

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Rishi Sunak will feel 'reset week' was job well done - but a horrible reality check awaits

Call it the Rishi Sunak reset week or, to borrow from The Spectator’s Katy Balls, the shore-up Sunak week – the prime minister will be going into this weekend feeling the past few days have been a job well done.

He has got his flagship Rwanda bill through parliament and is promising a “regular rhythm” of flights will be getting off the ground from July.

He has also got off the ground himself, with a dash to Poland and then Germany, in a show of strength with European allies in the face of Russian aggression.

As the US finally approved a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine, our prime minister announced he’d lift the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030.

That would amount to £87bn a year by the start of the 2030s, with the UK spending a cumulative extra £75bn on the military over the next six years.

That of course all hinges on winning an election, which I’ll come to soon, but it is a commitment that throws a challenge to Labour and will delight those in his party who have been calling for increased defence spending for months in the face of growing global threats from Russia, China and Iran.

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In Electoral Dysfunction this week, we discuss whether Rishi Sunak, having been battered for much of his premiership, is finally having a week on top?

There is after all a longstanding tradition in this country that when the chips are down, you jump on a plane to try to go somewhere where you’re more appreciated.

And Ruth agrees this week that this has been “one of the better weeks that he’s had in his premiership” and is fully behind his defence spending pledge, while Jess points out that Labour is committed to the “exact same plan for upping defence spending”.

The difference between the two parties is that Rishi Sunak set out in some detail how he plans to get to that point over the course of the next parliament, while Sir Keir Starmer has said only he wants to get to 2.5% “when resources allow”.

And that matters because, as it stands, it’s very likely that it will be Sir Keir who is having to decide whether to increase defence spending levels in the next parliament rather than the incumbent.

Cue an election debate on which leader really cares more about defence and, if Sir Keir really does want go toe-to-toe with Mr Sunak on the 2.5%, how does he pay for it?

That will be a discussion for many other days (Labour’s line on this is that the party will hit the 2.5% “when circumstances allow” rather than setting a firm date) as we head into the general election.

But I had to ask Ruth and Jess, why was he on a publicity blitz announcing it now? Was it something to do with the rather large matter of the local elections?

‘Sunak needs to look big’

At this, both furiously shook their heads and looked at me with a touch of derision. “When it comes to the local elections, I want my bins done, I want my schools to be good, and I want my potholes done. That’s what I care about,” says Ruth.

“The people in Birmingham Yardley speak of nothing else but the 2.5% defence spending,” jokes Jess.

“I see why [he’s doing it this week] but actually I don’t think he’s doing for just another example of doing it this week. He needs to look big in front of his party.”

And there are a couple of things to explore in that.

First, the party management issue of a PM very likely to get completely battered in the local elections throwing his party some red meat ahead of that slaughter to perhaps try to protect himself.

Because the local elections could be bad, very very bad. And that throws up questions about Rishi Sunak’s future and also the date of the next general election.

There is a reason why the prime minister will not be drawn on the timing of the election beyond the “second half of the year”.

While it’s true he doesn’t want to have to “indulge in a guessing game”, as one of his allies put it to me, it’s also true that he can’t rule out a summer election given the unpredictability of next week’s local elections and what could follow.

The Armageddon scenario of losing 500-plus seats, alongside the West Midlands and Teeside mayors, could propel his party into fever pitch panic and possibly trigger a vote of confidence in Rishi Sunak.

Does he then decide to call a general election instead of allowing his party to try to force him out?

‘A man enjoying himself’

For what it’s worth, he did not appear, in any way to me, as a prime minister on that plane over to Berlin from Warsaw, who wanted to give up the job. He seemed, for the first time in a long time, a man enjoying it and getting on with the stuff he wants to get done.

There is also the small matter of being 20 points behind in the polls. I suspect his instinct is very much to hold on in the hope that things begin to turn in his favour.

Because, despite what the critics say, he does seem a man who genuinely believes his Rwanda plan, welfare reforms, defence spending and economic management are all stepping stones on his path to perhaps winning back some support in the country.

“June [or July] is just party management,” says one former cabinet minister. “They are not ready for it and the polling doesn’t work obviously.”

Jess sees the flurry as a “his last ditch attempt” of another reset, and says “the Labour party is not worrying” as the PM tries to pin them on Rwanda or defence spending: “Whatever he goes on is absolutely pilloried within seconds,” she says.

But Ruth argues the defence spending was “actually authentic and a real thing”, and says of the expectations for the local elections that “it’s not just going to be a rout, but an apocalypse, that actually at this point in the cycle it works quite well for Sunak in terms of keeping his job at the back end”.

Observing his various grip and grins this week as I trailed after him meeting the Polish PM, the German chancellor and the NATO secretary general, he is a man that really does want to hold on to that job.

The local elections then are probably going to come as a horrible reality check in just a week’s time as this prime minister, riding high from his European tours, is reminded that his time in office looks like it will be coming to an end – and perhaps even sooner than he might have initially planned.