Pound steadies as markets expect Bank of England action to prop up UK currency

Published

2 years ago

September 27, 2022

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The collapse of the value of the pound in the wake of Friday’s mini-budget appears to have stalled, for now, but only thanks to market expectations that the Bank of England will still be forced to intervene.

The rout for sterling, which began after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng revealed a £45bn tax cut plan on top of government aid for energy bills, was a consequence of concern over the levels of borrowing required.

It essentially called in to question the confidence the market had for sustainable public finances in the UK, also pushing up the rates demanded by investors to hold UK bonds – government IOUs – which will be used to fund the growth plan.

The pound hit an all-time low versus the dollar of $1.03 early on Monday but it later recovered some lost ground and had settled around $1.08 on Tuesday.

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There were three main factors behind the limited fightback.

One was a statement from the Treasury on Monday aimed at soothing nerves around Friday’s giveaways.

It revealed that Mr Kwarteng was to set out a “medium-term fiscal plan” on 23 November which would also contain independent analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility – a check that was lacking in the mini-budget.

The second was due to a statement from the Bank of England which affirmed it would “not hesitate” to raise interest rates to prop up the value of sterling but added that it would make a full assessment at its next scheduled meeting.

The final facet can be traced across the Atlantic where the dollar – the world’s reserve currency which has strengthened significantly this year amid the economic turmoil linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine – fell back against a basket of international currencies.

Analysts cited renewed investor interest in stocks but remained cautious about the outlook as markets, already jittery at the prospect of US interest rates staying higher for longer, have been further unnerved by the upheaval for the pound and UK bond yields.

There was some relief for the government when the Treasury successfully raised £1.2bn through a bond sale on Tuesday morning.

The amount was covered 2.3 times, which Sky’s economics and data editor Ed Conway said showed there was “no shortage of appetite” for the debt.

The market volatility has been blamed for a number of mortgage providers withdrawing products from sale.

Such moves are expected to be only temporary amid the turmoil of the past few days.

Many market participants talked about a long road back to recovery for sterling because credibility had been lost.

Allan Monks, an economist at America’s largest bank JP Morgan, said the statements from the Bank and Treasury had been “measured”.

“But there is still no clear sign that the source of the problem – the government’s fiscal strategy – is being reversed or reconsidered,” he complained.

“This will need to happen before November in order to avoid a much worse outcome for the economy.”

Larry Summers, a former US Treasury Secretary, also spoke about credibility being lost and suggested that the crisis would affect London’s viability as a global financial centre.

Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors which manages around $500bn in assets, told the Reuters news agency: “Once a market starts to move with this kind of momentum, it’s hard to put a number on where it (sterling) will trough.

“But as an investor you take a long-term view. If you look at the UK as somewhere to invest over five years, for me that’s a no.”

Others said another factor behind sterling’s performance since Monday afternoon was that money leaving UK bonds was finding its way to the currency instead – but only because of the higher rate hike expectations.

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Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said markets were pricing in an emergency rate hike with 175 basis points’ (1.75%) worth of increases by November.

“The slump in sterling could exacerbate the UK’s inflation problem, with price levels currently flirting with double digits.

“More expensive imports may add to the UK’s upward price pressures, which is likely to prompt more aggressive action from central bank policy makers.”

UK

Teenage girl killed on M5 in Somerset after getting out of police car named

Published

7 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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Teenage girl killed on M5 in Somerset after getting out of police car named

A teenage girl who was killed after getting out of a police car on the M5 in Somerset has been named.

Tamzin Hall, 17 and from Wellington, was hit by a vehicle that was travelling southbound between junction 24 for Bridgwater and junction 25 for Taunton shortly after 11pm on Monday.

She had exited a police vehicle that had stopped on the northbound side of the motorway while transporting her.

A mandatory referral was made to the Independent Office for Police Conduct, which is now carrying out its own investigation into what happened.

Avon and Somerset Police said: “Our thoughts and sympathies go out to Tamzin’s family for their devastating loss.

“A specially-trained family liaison officer remains in contact with them to keep them updated and to provide support.

“The family have asked for privacy at this difficult time.”

The police watchdog, the IOPC, has been asked to investigate.

In a statement, director David Ford, said: “This was a truly tragic incident and my thoughts are with Tamzin’s family and friends and everyone affected by the events of that evening.

“We are contacting her family to express our sympathies, explain our role, and set out how our investigation will progress. We will keep them fully updated as our investigation continues.”

Paramedics attended the motorway within minutes of the girl being hit but she was pronounced dead at the scene.

The motorway was closed in both directions while investigations took place. It was fully reopened shortly after 11am on Tuesday, Nationals Highways said.

UK

Mohamed al Fayed’s brother Salah also abused women, say female Harrods employees

Published

7 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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Mohamed al Fayed's brother Salah also abused women, say female Harrods employees

A survivors group advocating for women allegedly assaulted by Mohamed al Fayed has said it is “grateful another abuser has been unmasked”, after allegations his brother Salah also participated in the abuse.

Justice for Harrods Survivors says it has “credible evidence” suggesting the sexual abuse allegedly perpetrated at Harrods and the billionaire’s properties “was not limited to Mr al Fayed himself”.

The group’s statement comes after three women told BBC News they were sexually assaulted by al Fayed’s brother, Salah.

One woman said she was raped by Mohamed al Fayed while working at Harrods.

Helen, who has waived her right to anonymity, said she then took a job working for his brother as an escape. She alleges she was drugged and sexually assaulted while working at Salah’s home on Park Lane, London.

Two other women have told the BBC they were taken to Monaco and the South of France, where Salah sexually abused them.

The Justice for Harrod Survivors representatives said: “We are proud to support the survivors of Salah Fayed’s abuse and are committed to achieving justice for them, no matter what it takes.”

The group added it “looks forward to the others on whom we have credible evidence – whether abusers themselves or enablers facilitating that abuse – being exposed in due course”.

Salah was one of the three Fayed brothers who co-owned Harrods.

The business, which was sold to Qatar Holdings when Mohamed al Fayed retired in 2010, has said it “supports the bravery of these women in coming forward”.

A statement issued by the famous store on Thursday evening continued: “We encourage these survivors to come forward and make their claims to the Harrods scheme, where they can apply for compensation, as well as support from a counselling perspective and through an independent survivor advocate.

“We also hope that they are looking at every appropriate avenue to them in their pursuit of justice, whether that be Harrods, the police or the Fayed family and estate.”

The Justice for Harrods Survivors group previously said more than 400 people had contacted them regarding accusations about Mohamed al Fayed, who died last year.

One of those alleged to have been abused is Bianca Gascoigne, the daughter of former England player Paul.

Speaking to Sky News in October, Gascoigne said she was groomed and sexually assaulted by al Fayed when she worked at Harrods as a teenager.

UK

Wes Streeting ‘crossed the line’ by opposing assisted dying in public, says Labour peer Harriet Harman

Published

7 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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Wes Streeting 'crossed the line' by opposing assisted dying in public, says Labour peer Harriet Harman

Wes Streeting “crossed the line” by opposing assisted dying in public and the argument shouldn’t “come down to resources”, a Labour peer has said.

Speaking on Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Baroness Harriet Harman criticised the health secretary for revealing how he is going to vote on the matter when it comes before parliament later this month.

MPs are being given a free vote, meaning they can side with their conscience and not party lines, so the government is supposed to be staying neutral.

But Mr Streeting has made clear he will vote against legalising assisted dying, citing concerns end-of-life care is not good enough for people to make an informed choice, and that some could feel pressured into the decision to save the NHS money.

He has also ordered a review into the potential costs of changing the law, warning it could come at the expense of other NHS services if implemented.

Baroness Harman said Mr Streeting has “crossed the line in two ways”.

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“He should not have said how he was going to vote, because that breaches neutrality and sends a signal,” she said.

“And secondly… he’s said the problem is that it will cost money to bring in an assisted dying measure, and therefore he will have to cut other services.

“But paradoxically, he also said it would be a slippery slope because people will be forced to bring about their own death in order to save the NHS money. Well, it can’t be doing both things.

“It can’t be both costing the NHS money and saving the NHS money.”

Baroness Harman said the argument “should not come down to resources” as it is a “huge moral issue” affecting “only a tiny number of people”.

She added that people should not mistake Mr Streeting for being “a kind of proxy for Keir Starmer”.

“The government is genuinely neutral and all of those backbenchers, they can vote whichever way they want,” she added.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has previously expressed support for assisted dying, but it is not clear how he intends to vote on the issue or if he will make his decision public ahead of time.

The cabinet has varying views on the topic, with the likes of Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood siding with Mr Streeting in her opposition but Energy Secretary Ed Miliband being for it.

The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill is being championed by Labour backbencher Kim Leadbeater, who wants to give people with six months left to live the choice to end their lives.

Under her proposals, two independent doctors must confirm a patient is eligible for assisted dying and a High Court judge must give their approval.

The bill will also include punishments of up to 14 years in prison for those who break the law, including coercing someone into ending their own life.

MPs will debate and vote on the legislation on 29 November, in what will be the first Commons vote on assisted dying since 2015, when the proposal was defeated.