If the government does not reverse its fiscal plans in the coming weeks, it may be left with little option but to cut public spending so significantly it could result in the end of the National Health Service, according to one of Britain’s leading economic policymakers of recent decades.
Sir Charlie Bean, a former deputy governor of the Bank of England and member of the Office for Budget Responsibility, urged the Bank to carry out an emergency interest rate rise of 1.5 percentage points to help calm to markets.
He warned that the government has begun to lose the confidence of markets.
“The thing about credulity is when you lose it, it can be quite difficult to get it back,” he said. “It takes time.”
Asked whether that was where the country is now, he added: “I would say that we’ve got a few steps down the road. It is serious. And I don’t think the government can really afford just to say, ‘Oh, this is just a little bit of froth in markets; they’ll come to their senses as soon as we lay out our full programme.’
“There are real questions to be addressed about how the government’s fiscal strategy hangs together, and how it can ensure that the debt to GDP ratio is back on to a sustainable path by the medium term.”
Asked what it could do to resolve the situation, Sir Charlie said: “The ideal would be to get a Tardis and go back and undo the errors… I find it implausible that the measures that are presently being contemplated to boost growth… will be anything like powerful enough to obviate the need for some significant spending cuts.”
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He added that the scale of those cuts – potentially as much as £50bn a year – would have enormous consequences for the public sector.
“Frankly, the only way you can really deal with this is with a very fundamental rethinking of the boundaries of the state.
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“So if you want to get the share of government spending to GDP down, you have to be prepared, say, to move away from our own health service, which is free at the point of delivery to one funded by social insurance like they do in Germany.”
Sir Charlie said that had he still been at the Bank he would have advised Andrew Bailey, the governor, to hold an emergency interest rate meeting.
“And the evidence from many of these sorts of episodes across the world is that the secret is to go early and go big. So had the bank decided to have an emergency meeting, it would have needed to raise bank rate by at least I think 100 basis points (a full percentage point), or possibly 150 basis points. Anything less than that would have been worse than not doing anything.”
It said the fraudsters try to steal money by getting people to hand over funds or sensitive information, such as bank account PINs and passwords, and that around 480 victims had been scammed into sending money.
One of the most common scam methods involves fraudsters claiming the regulator has recovered funds from a crypto wallet that was opened illegally in the individual’s name.
The FCA said another common method is the targeting of people vulnerable to loan scams, with criminals telling them they can help them recover money they have lost.
Victims are then persuaded to hand over further funds to who they believe is the regulator.
The regulator said almost two-thirds of reports came from people aged 56 or over.
A separate scammer trend has involved fraudsters emailing consumers telling them their creditors have taken out a county court judgment against them and that they need to pay the FCA the funds owed.
Steve Smart, joint executive director of enforcement and market oversight at the FCA, said: “Fraudsters are ruthless. They attempt to steal money from innocent victims by impersonating the FCA.
“We will never ask you to transfer money to us or for sensitive banking information such as account PINs and passwords. If in doubt, always check.”
A health and beauty retailer founded on a Lancashire market stall more than half a century ago is facing collapse amid a race to find a rescue deal.
Sky News has learnt that Bodycare, which employs about 1,500 people, could fall into administration as soon as next week unless a buyer is found.
City sources said that Interpath, the advisory firm which has been working with Bodycare and its owners for several months, was continuing to explore options for the business.
The company is owned by Baaj Capital, a family office run by Jas Singh.
Its other investments have included In The Style, which underwent a pre-pack administration earlier this year, and party products supplier Amscan International.
Baaj also attempted to take over The Original Factory Shop earlier this year before its offer was trumped by Modella Capital, another specialist retail investor.
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News of Bodycare’s travails comes just weeks after the retailer secured a £7m debt facility to buy it short-term breathing space.
The facility was secured against Bodycare’s retail inventory, according to a statement last month.
Bodycare was established by Graham and Margaret Blackledge in Skelmersdale in 1970, and sells branded products made by the likes of L’Oreal, Nivea and Elizabeth Arden.
The chain was profitable before the pandemic, but like many retailers lost millions of pounds in the financial years immediately after it hit.
Bodycare received financial support from the taxpayer in the form of a multimillion pound loan issued under one of the Treasury’s pandemic funding schemes.
The chain is run by retail veteran Tony Brown, who held senior roles at BHS and Beales, the now-defunct department store groups.
If Bodycare does fall into insolvency proceedings, it would be the latest high street chain to face collapse this year, amid intensifying complaints from the industry about tax increases announced in last autumn’s budget.
In recent weeks, River Island narrowly avoided administration after winning creditor approval for a restructuring involving store closures and job losses.
Later this week, the struggling discount giant Poundland will seek similar approval from the courts for a radical overhaul that will entail dozens of shop closures.
Bodycare could not be reached for comment on Tuesday, while Baaj has been contacted for comment and Interpath declined to comment.
President Trump says he is firing a governor of the US central bank, a move seen as intensifying his bid for control over the setting of interest rates.
He posted a letter on his Truth Social platform on Monday night declaring that Lisa Cook – the first black woman to be appointed a Federal Reserve governor – was to be removed from her post on alleged mortgage fraud grounds.
She has responded, insisting he has no authority over her job and vowed to continue in the role, threatening a legal battle that could potentially go all the way to the Supreme Court.
The president‘s threat is significant as he has consistently demanded that the central bank cut interest rates to help boost the US economy. Growth has sagged since he returned to office on the back of US trade war gloom and hiring has slowed sharply in more recent months.
Mr Trump has previously directed his ire over rates at Jay Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, blaming him for the economic jitters and has repeatedly called for him to be fired.
The Fed, as it is known, has long been considered an institution independent from politics and question marks over that independence has previously shaken financial markets.
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The dollar was hit overnight while US futures indicate a negative opening for stock markets.
Mr Powell’s term is due to end next spring and the president is expected to soon nominate his replacement.
Image: Fed chair Jay Powell is seen in discussion with board member Lisa Cook. Pic: AP
The Fed has 12 people with a right to vote on monetary policy, which includes the setting of interest rates and some regulatory powers.
Those 12 include the seven members of the Board of Governors, of which Ms Cook is one.
Replacing her would give Trump appointees a 4-3 majority on the board.
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July: Fed chair has ‘done a bad job’, says Trump
He has previously said he would only appoint Fed officials who support lower borrowing costs.
Ms Cook was appointed to the Fed’s board by then-president Joe Biden in 2022 and is the first black woman to serve as a governor.
Her nomination was opposed by most Senate Republicans at the time and was only approved, on a 50-50 vote, with the tie broken by then-vice president Kamala Harris.
It was alleged last week by a Trump appointed regulator that Ms Cook had claimed two primary residences in 2021 to get better mortgage terms.
Mortgage rates are often higher on second homes or those purchased to rent.
She responded to the president’s letter: “President Trump purported to fire me ‘for cause’ when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so,” she said in an emailed statement.
“I will not resign.”
Legal experts said it was for the White House to argue its case.
But Lev Menand, a law professor at Columbia law school, said of the situation: “This is a procedurally invalid removal under the statute.
“This is not someone convicted of a crime. This is not someone who is not carrying out their duties.”
The Fed was yet to comment.
It has held off from interest rate cuts this year, largely over fears that the president’s trade war will result in a surge of inflation due to higher import duties being passed on in the world’s largest economy.
However, Mr Powell hinted last week that a cut could now be justified due to risks of rising unemployment.