Shoppers are paying a record 10.6% more for food than they were a year ago, figures show.
Overall shop price inflation accelerated to 5.7% in September, up from 5.1% in August, in another record since the British Retail Consortium-Nielson IQ index began in 2005.
Food price inflation rocketed past last month’s 9.3% to 10.6%, driven by the war in Ukraine, which is continuing to push up the price of animal feed, fertiliser and vegetable oil and is particularly affecting products such as margarine.
Fresh food products cost a record 12.1% more than last year, up from 10.5% in August, the highest rate for the category on record.
Inflation for store cupboard staples, such as pasta and tinned tomatoes, reached a record 8.6%, up from 7.8% a month previously, the fastest rate of increase for the category.
Although the summer drought diminished some harvests, other produce benefitted from the prolonged sunshine, leading to a fall in prices for fruit such as strawberries, blueberries and tomatoes.
Non-food inflation rose from 2.9% in August to 3.3%, largely driven by bigger hardware, DIY and gardening products hit hard by rising transport costs.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: “Retailers are battling huge cost pressures from the weak pound, rising energy bills and global commodity prices, high transport costs, a tight labour market and the cumulative burden of government-imposed costs.
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“And, with business rates set to jump by 10% next April, squeezed retailers face an additional £800m in unaffordable tax rises.
“Government must urgently freeze the business rates multiplier to give retailers more scope to do more to help households.”
Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, said: “With food and household energy prices continuing to rise, it’s no surprise that NielsenIQ data shows that 76% of consumers are saying they expect to be moderately or severely affected by the cost-of-living crisis over the next three months, up from 57% in the summer.
“So households will be looking for savings to help manage their personal finances this autumn and we expect shoppers to become more cautious about discretionary spend, adding to pressure in the retail sector.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has criticised post-financial crash regulation, saying it has “gone too far” – setting a course for cutting red tape in her first speech to Britain’s most important gathering of financiers and business leaders.
Increased rules on lenders that followed the 2008 crisis have had “unintended consequences”, Ms Reeves will say in her Mansion House address to industry and the City of London’s lord mayor.
“The UK has been regulating for risk, but not regulating for growth,” she will say.
It cannot be taken for granted that the UK will remain a global financial centre, she is expected to add.
It’s anticipated Ms Reeves will on Thursday announce “growth-focused remits” for financial regulators and next year publish the first strategy for financial services growth and competitiveness.
Bank governor to point out ‘consequences’ of Brexit
Also at the Mansion House dinner the governor of the Bank of EnglandAndrew Bailey will say the UK economy is bigger than we think because we’re not measuring it properly.
A new measure to be used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – which will include the value of data – will probably be “worth a per cent or two on GDP”. GDP is a key way of tracking economic growth and counts the value of everything produced.
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Brexit has reduced the level of goods coming into the UK, Mr Bailey will also say, and the government must be alert to and welcome opportunities to rebuild relations.
Mr Bailey will caveat he takes no position on “Brexit per se” but does have to point out its consequences.
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10:28
Bailey: Inflation expected to rise
In what appears to be a reference to the debate around UK immigration policy, Mr Bailey will also say the UK’s ageing population means there are fewer workers, which should be included in the discussion.
The greying labour force “makes the productivity and investment issue all the more important”.
“I will also say this: when we think about broad policy on labour supply, the economic arguments must feature in the debate,” he’s due to add.
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The exact numbers of people at work are unknown in part due to fewer people answering the phone when the ONS call.
Mr Bailey described this as “a substantial problem”.
He will say: “I do struggle to explain when my fellow [central bank] governors ask me why the British are particularly bad at this. The Bank, alongside other users, including the Treasury, continue to engage with the ONS on efforts to tackle these problems and improve the quality of UK labour market data.”
When Gordon Brown delivered his first Mansion House speech as chancellor he caused a stir by doing so in a lounge suit, rather than the white tie and tails demanded by convention.
Some 27 years later Rachel Reeves is the first chancellor who would have not drawn a second glance had they addressed the City establishment in a dress.
As the first woman in the 800-year history of her office, Ms Reeves’s tenure will be littered with reminders of her significance, but few will be as symbolic as a dinner that is a fixture of the financial calendar.
Her host at Mansion House, asset manager Alastair King, is the 694th man out of 696 Lord Mayors of London. The other guest speaker, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, leads an institution that is yet to be entrusted to a woman.
Ms Reeves’s speech indicates she wants to lean away from convention in policy as well as in person.
By committing to tilting financial regulation in favour of growth rather than risk aversion, she is going against the grain of the post-financial crash environment.
“This sector is the crown jewel in our economy,” she will tell her audience – many of whom will have been central players in the 2007-08 collapse.
Sending a message that they will be less tightly bound in future is not natural territory for a Labour chancellor.
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Her motivation may be more practical than political. A tax-and-spend budget that hit business harder than forewarned has put her economic program on notice and she badly needs the growth elements to deliver.
Infrastructure investment is central to Reeves’s plan and these steps, universally welcomed, could unlock the private sector funding required to make it happen.
Bank governor frank on Brexit and growth
If the jury is out in a business financial community absorbing £25bn in tax rises, she has welcome support from Mr Bailey.
He is expected to deliver some home truths about the economic inheritance in plainer language than central bankers sometimes manage.
Britain’s growth potential, he says, “is not a good story”. He describes the labour market as “running against us” in the face of an ageing population.
With investment levels “particularly weak by G7 standards”, he will thank the chancellor for the pension reforms intended to unlock capital investment.
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Governor warns inflation expected to rise
He is frank about Brexit too, more so than the chancellor has dared.
While studiously offering no view on the central issue, Mr Bailey says leaving the EU had slowed the UK’s potential for growth, and that the government should “welcome opportunities to rebuild relations”.
There is a more coded warning too about the risks of protectionism, which is perhaps more likely with Donald Trump in the White House.
“Amid threats to economic security, let’s please remember the importance of openness,” the Bank governor will say.
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Water company United Utilities has reported hundreds of millions in profit as it seeks to further increase customer bills.
The utility serving seven million customers in the northwest of England recorded £335.7m in underlying operating profits for the first half of this year, up nearly 23% from £271.1m a year ago.
It comes as the firm has requested bills rise 32% to make them among the most expensive in England and Wales.
The proposed average annual bill would increase to £584 by 2030 from the £443 typical yearly charge in the 2023/2024 financial year. Since April 2023 bills have been upped 6.4% and then 7.9%.
Bills hikes were behind the rise in revenue to more than £1.08bn from £975.4m in 2023.
Other ways of assessing profit were lower than the underlying operating sum. Profit before tax reached £140.6m while after tax profit topped £103.1m for the six months to the end of September 2024, both lower than a year earlier.
Boss’s pay
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Bonus and benefits payments worth £1.416m were paid to two executives on top of £1.128m in base pay, according to analysis of company filings done by the Liberal Democrats.
It’s down compared with 2022/2023 when three executives were given £1.6m in base pay and £2.456m in bonuses and benefits.
In a year of record sewage outflows into waterways the company was one of just three firms that met the Environment Agency’s top four-star performance ranking.
United Utilities in July came under investigation by water regulator Ofwat for not meeting its obligation to minimise pollution.
In response the company said at the time: “We understand and share people’s concerns about the health of the environment and the operation of wastewater systems, including combined sewer overflows.”