Shoppers are paying a record 10.6% more for food than they were a year ago, figures show.
Overall shop price inflation accelerated to 5.7% in September, up from 5.1% in August, in another record since the British Retail Consortium-Nielson IQ index began in 2005.
Food price inflation rocketed past last month’s 9.3% to 10.6%, driven by the war in Ukraine, which is continuing to push up the price of animal feed, fertiliser and vegetable oil and is particularly affecting products such as margarine.
Fresh food products cost a record 12.1% more than last year, up from 10.5% in August, the highest rate for the category on record.
Inflation for store cupboard staples, such as pasta and tinned tomatoes, reached a record 8.6%, up from 7.8% a month previously, the fastest rate of increase for the category.
Although the summer drought diminished some harvests, other produce benefitted from the prolonged sunshine, leading to a fall in prices for fruit such as strawberries, blueberries and tomatoes.
Non-food inflation rose from 2.9% in August to 3.3%, largely driven by bigger hardware, DIY and gardening products hit hard by rising transport costs.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: “Retailers are battling huge cost pressures from the weak pound, rising energy bills and global commodity prices, high transport costs, a tight labour market and the cumulative burden of government-imposed costs.
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“And, with business rates set to jump by 10% next April, squeezed retailers face an additional £800m in unaffordable tax rises.
“Government must urgently freeze the business rates multiplier to give retailers more scope to do more to help households.”
Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, said: “With food and household energy prices continuing to rise, it’s no surprise that NielsenIQ data shows that 76% of consumers are saying they expect to be moderately or severely affected by the cost-of-living crisis over the next three months, up from 57% in the summer.
“So households will be looking for savings to help manage their personal finances this autumn and we expect shoppers to become more cautious about discretionary spend, adding to pressure in the retail sector.”
Outside it is the bleak midwinter. We are smack bang in the middle of some of the country’s best agricultural land.
But inside the cavernous warehouse where we’ve come, you wouldn’t have a clue about any of that: there is no daylight; it feels like it could be any time of the day, any season of the year.
We are at Fischer Farms – Europe’s biggest vertical farm.
The whole point of a vertical farm is to create an environment where you can grow plants, stacked on top of each other (hence: vertical) in high density. The idea being that you can grow your salads or peas somewhere close to the cities where they’re consumed rather than hundreds of miles away. Location is not supposed to matter.
So the fact that this particular one is to be found amid the fields a few miles outside Norwich is somewhat irrelevant. It could be anywhere. Indeed, unlike most farms, which are sometimes named after the family that owns them or a local landmark, this one is simply called “Farm 2”. “Farm 1” is to be found in Staffordshire, in case you were wondering.
Farm boss’s dizzying ambition
These futuristic farm units are the brainwave of Tristan Fischer, a serial entrepreneur who has spent much of his career working on renewable energy in its various guises. His ambition now is dizzying: to be able to grow not just basil and chives in a farm like this but to grow other, trickier and more competitive crops too – from strawberries to wheat and rice.
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Only then, he says, can vertical farming stand a chance of truly changing the world.
The idea behind vertical farming itself is more than a century old. Back in 1915, American geologist Gilbert Ellis Bailey described how it could be done in theory. In theory, one should be able to grow plants hydroponically – in other words with a mineral substrate instead of soil – in a controlled environment and thereby increase the yield dramatically.
In one sense this is what’s already being done in greenhouses across much of Northern Europe and the US, where tomatoes and other warm-weather-loving vegetables are grown in temperature-controlled environments. However, while most of these greenhouses still depend on natural light (if sometimes bolstered by electric bulbs) the point behind vertical farming was that by controlling the amount of light, one could grow more or less everything, any time of the year. And by stacking the crops together one could yield even more crops in each acre of land one was using.
Look at a long-term chart of agricultural yields in this country and you start to see why this might matter. The quantity of crops we grow in each acre of land jumped dramatically in the second half of the 20th century – a consequence in part of liberal use of artificial fertiliser and in part of new technologies and systems. But that productivity rate started to tail off towards the end of the century.
‘Changing the equation’
Vertical farming promises, if it can make the numbers add up, to change the equation, dramatically increasing agricultural productivity in the coming decades. The question is whether the technology is there yet.
And when it comes to the technology, one thing has certainly changed. Those early vertical farms (the first attempts actually date back to the 1950s) all had a big problem: the bulbs. Incandescent bulbs were both too hot and too energy intensive to work in these environments. But the latest generation of LED bulbs are both cool and cheap, and it’s these bulbs you need (in vast numbers) if you’re going to make vertical farming work.
Here at Farm 2, you encounter row after row of trays, each stacked on top of each other, each carrying increasingly leafy basil plants. They sit under thousands of little LED bulbs which are tuned to precisely the right spectral frequency to encourage the plant to grow rapidly.
Mr Fischer says: “We’re on this downward cost curve on LEDs. And then when you think about other main inputs, energy – renewable energy – is constantly coming down as well.
“So you think about all the big drivers of vertical farming, they’re going down, whereas compared to full-grown crops, everything’s going up – the fertilisers, rents, water is becoming more expensive too.”
This farm – which currently sells to restaurant chains rather than direct to consumers – is now cost-competitive with the basil shipped (or more often flown) in from the Mediterranean and North Africa. The carbon footprint is considerably lower too.
“And our long-term goal is that we can get a lot cheaper,” says Mr Fischer. “If you look at Farm 1, we spent about £2.5m on lights in 2018. Fast forward to Farm 2; it’s seven and a half times bigger and in those three years the lights were effectively half the price. We’re also probably using 60 to 70 percent less power.”
It might seem odd to hear a farmer talk so much about energy and comparatively less about the kinds of things one associates with farmers – the soil or tractors or the weather – but vertical farming is in large part an energy business. If energy prices are low enough, it makes the crops here considerably cheaper.
But here in the UK, with power costs higher than anywhere else in the developed world, the prospects for this business are more challenged than elsewhere. Still, Mr Fischer’s objective is to prove the business case here before building bigger units elsewhere, in countries with much cheaper power.
In much the same way as Dutch growers came to dominate those greenhouses, he thinks the UK has a chance of dominating this new agricultural sector.
The owners of Shawbrook Group, the mid-sized British lender, are drawing up plans to kickstart London’s moribund listings arena with a stock market flotation, valuing it at more than £2bn.
Sky News has learnt that BC Partners and Pollen Street Capital, which took Shawbrook private in 2017, are close to appointing Goldman Sachs to oversee work on a potential initial public offering.
Other investment banks, possibly including Barclays, are expected to be added in the near future.
Shawbrook’s shareholders are said to be keen to take the company public during the first half of this year.
People close to the situation cautioned that no decision to proceed with a listing had been taken, and that it would be dependent upon market conditions.
If it does go ahead, Shawbrook would almost certainly rank among the largest companies to list in London during the first half of 2025.
Bankers and investors are also waiting to see whether British regulators give the green light to a flotation for Shein, the Chinese-founded online fashion giant, which would be one of the City’s biggest-ever floats if it takes place.
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Overall, London is fighting to overturn the impression that its public markets have become a troubled arena for public companies, afflicted by a lack of liquidity and weaker valuations than they might attract in the US.
In recent months, that perception has intensified with the decision of Ashtead, the FTSE-100 equipment rental company, to move its primary listing to New York.
Shawbrook, which employs close to 1,600 people, has 550,000 customers.
Founded in 2011, it was established as a specialist savings and lending institution, providing loans for home improvement projects and weddings, as well as business and real estate lending.
It is among a crop of mid-tier lenders, including OneSavings Bank, Aldermore Bank and Paragon Bank, which have collectively become a significant part of Britain’s banking landscape since the last financial crisis.
The bid to take Shawbrook public this year will come a year after its owners were reported to have hired Bank of America and Morgan Stanley to explore a sale or listing.
It explored a similar process in 2022 but abandoned it amid volatile market conditions.
The company has also sought to position itself at the heart of potential consolidation among the sector’s leading players.
In the autumn of 2023, Shawbrook approached Metro Bank about a possible takeover as the latter bank battled to stay afloat.
A series of proposals was rejected by Metro Bank’s board.
Just weeks earlier, Shawbrook sounded out the Co-operative Bank about a £3.5bn all-share merger in an attempt to pre-empt a wider auction of the former mutually owned lender.
That, too, was rebuffed, with the Co-operative Bank completing its sale to the Coventry Building Society this week.
Third-quarter results for Shawbrook released to bondholders in November disclosed 18% growth in its loan book on an annualised basis to just over £15bn.
BC Partners and Pollen Street own equal stakes in Shawbrook, with its management team also owning a minority.
The bank is run by chief executive Marcelino Castrillo.
“We continue to see promising opportunities for expansion and value creation across our core markets, including SME and real estate,” Mr Castrillo said in November.
“The combination of an exceptional customer franchise, a more stable macroeconomic outlook and increasing customer confidence means we are well-positioned to continue to deliver on our strategic ambitions throughout the remainder of 2024 and beyond.”
This weekend, Shawbrook, BC Partners and Pollen Street all declined to comment.
Donald Trump has said the UK is making “a very big mistake” in its fossil fuel policy – and should “get rid of windmills”.
In a post on Friday on his social media platform, Truth Social, Mr Trump shared news from November of a US oil producer pulling out of the North Sea, a major oil-producing region off the Scottish coast.
“The UK is making a very big mistake. Open up the North Sea. Get rid of windmills!”, the US president-elect wrote.
The Texan oil producer Apache said at the time it was withdrawing from the North Sea by 2029 in part due to the increase in windfall tax on fossil fuel producers.
The head of Apache’s parent company APA Corporation said in early November it had concluded the investment required to comply with UK regulations, “coupled with the onerous financial impact of the energy profits levy [windfall tax] makes production of hydrocarbons beyond the year 2029 uneconomic”.
Chief executive John Christmann added that “substantial investment” will be necessary to comply with regulatory requirements.
Mr Trump used a three-word campaign pledge “drill, baby, drill” during his successful election campaign, claiming he will increase oil and gas production during his second administration.
In the October budget announcement, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves raised the windfall tax levied on profits of energy producers to 38%.
Called the energy price levy, it is a rise from the 25% introduced by Rishi Sunak in 2022 as energy prices soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Many oil and gas businesses reported record profits in the wake of the price hike.
The tax was intended to support households struggling with high gas and electricity bills amid a broader cost of living crisis.
Apache is just one of a glut of firms that made decisions to alter their North Sea extraction due to the Labour policy.
Even before the new government was elected, three companies, Jersey Oil and Gas, Serica Energy and Neo Energy – announced they were delaying, by a year, the planned start of production at the Buchan oilfield 120 miles to the north-east of Aberdeen.