New York Yankees prospect Jasson Dominguez stars in a bold new world of sports card prospecting
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Dan Hajducky
CloseESPN- Hajducky is a reporter/researcher for ESPN. He has an MFA in creative writing from Fairfield University and played on the men’s soccer teams at Fordham and Southern Connecticut State universities.
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Anthony Olivieri
TWO WEEKS AFTER New Year’s, there was a bidding war over a baseball card at collectibles marketplace Goldin. Bidding opened at $30,000 and rose to $101,000 by the next day, accruing 14 bids by midnight. A high-end collector, who goes by Shyne150, had unloaded $474,000 on a 2020 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs Superfractor, a literal one-of-a-kind rookie card, of a minor league prospect — believed to be the most ever for a card featuring a player yet to appear in Double-A.
“That’s extreme interest,” Ken Goldin, the marketplace’s namesake founder and executive chairman, says. “That’s Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., Juan Soto interest.”
The prospect was years from The Show. The card was serial numbered one-of-one featuring Jasson Dominguez, the New York Yankees‘ then-Low-A switch-hitting teenager who had played 57 games of minor league ball at the time of the sale.
The card collecting world was stunned: by the total, the name on the card and the brazenness of Shyne’s prospecting — a term for investing in cards of unproven players before they bloom or bust. The practice had become de rigueur, but the investment is usually more conservative.
Shyne didn’t see Dominguez as inexperienced or his investment risky; he saw potential waiting to be fulfilled and a profit margin to be reckoned with. After all, baseball provides a lengthier runway for prospects to succeed than football or basketball.
“Even if you tried to buy the Dominguez from me for $200,000 more than I paid for it,” Shyne, 40, says now, “I wouldn’t even consider it. … Dominguez is not mature yet, like a bond. You just gotta wait.”
The expectations surrounding Dominguez have been near-unprecedented (“He’s like Mike Trout,” one general manager told ESPN’s Jeff Passan when he was signed in 2019); the comparisons equally high (a skill set “like Mickey Mantle,” an international scouting director told Passan) and the nickname (“The Martian,” or El Marciano, coined in his native Dominican Republic) unforgettable. The Yankees gave him a franchise-record-setting $5.1 million signing bonus, using 95% of their international bonus pool for 2019-20 on the 16-year-old free agent.
Dominguez’s debut in 2021 — after COVID canceled the 2020 minor league season — was lukewarm. In those 57 games, between Rookie ball and Low-A, he hit .252 with five homers. He was no longer the Yankees’ top prospect. Still, Dominguez was promoted to High-A ahead of the 2022 MLB Futures Game (his second appearance) and emerged as the focal point of hypothetical trades for superstar outfielder Soto or ace Luis Castillo.
The promise of stardom — his MLB debut is projected in 2024 — was apparent in his trade value, but Dominguez’s team won’t reap the rewards for years, if at all.
Big league teams have long taken on that risk. But to sports card collectors investing hundreds of thousands — even with the hobby’s shocking unpredictability and a recession looming — was something new. Dominguez, who doesn’t turn 20 until February, would need to become, at least, a multiple-time MLB All-Star for Shyne’s bet to pay off. That’s a big gamble.
Could it actually happen?
“Timing is everything,” PWCC Marketplace director of business development Jesse Craig says. “Some people prospect as short-term gambling, some long-term …
“And some really think their guy’s going to be the next big thing.”
SHYNE’S REAL NAME is Matt Allen, but that’s not something you’ll see on his manicured social media. About four years ago, Allen invested money he made from private equity into cards. (“That’s something I really don’t want to get into,” Allen says when asked about his background. “A lot of people want to know the story.”) “I parlayed my profits into my passion,” he says now, wielding a sports card collection, by his own estimate, worth more than $100 million.
He sold a Luka Doncic rookie patch autograph (called an RPA, which includes an embedded piece of a jersey) reportedly for $4.6 million, which briefly held the record for most expensive basketball card of all time. On Instagram last December, he showed off a LeBron James RPA he says he ponied up $2.4 million for. His one-of-one Justin Herbert rookie card, for which he says he paid $550,000, just sold for $1.8 million at a Goldin auction. Allen says he bought a red Bowman Chrome refractor (numbered out of five) of Julio Rodriguez’s for $50,000 a year and a half ago; it just sold at auction in early August for $276,000.
He also owns a Triple Logoman boasting James, Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, which one industry headliner told ESPN is the greatest modern card in existence.
Allen, who began collecting at 7, is a tentpole of the hobby’s entrepreneurial evolution — one that has allowed him to rub elbows with some of the world’s most famous people. He breaks boxes with Drake, can tell you where the bathroom is at a Kardashian’s house (OK, it’s Rob’s) and is friends with Logan Paul.
The perpetually aviator-clad Allen is known for his big bets and bigger splashes. So when industry experts say that a half-million on Dominguez is a prospecting outlier and not the new normal, Allen demurs.
“What seems expensive today seems cheap tomorrow,” he says. “… I’m not even paying attention to [the card’s day-to-day worth]. I’m so long on it that it doesn’t even matter. If you said, ‘Hey, I’ll give you X for the card right now,’ it’s not even an option.
“I’m not trying to make money now.”
Instead of waiting to see if Dominguez is the second coming of Mickey Mantle — or Roy White … or Kevin Maas, for that matter — Allen overpaid now rather than risk not being able to acquire it when (or if) Dominguez starts launching moonshots into Monument Park.
“[Other collectors] wouldn’t pay $120,000 today for a card that sold for $100,000 yesterday; they would feel foolish,” Allen says. But according to Goldin, there’s a growing group of collectors who, armed with better-than-average sports knowledge, are taking a calculated risk — for better or worse.
“It’s common that people are prospecting, but the Dominguez case is prospecting — and I know this is a bad word — on steroids,” Goldin says. “He’s a Yankee, Yankee fans and collectors are clamoring for a young draft pick to be their next superstar. If he is, the card’s going to be in the millions.”
Bob Means, who oversees eBay’s sports card category, says, “At these initial stages, I don’t know if [prospectors are] thinking about the downside. I think it’s part of the hunt.”
Allen says that while others in the hobby were deciding whether paying future prices was a good strategy, he was actually doing it. “I pushed the private market in the past 3½ years greatly,” he says. “Myself and Ken [Goldin].”
Craig notes that, pre-pandemic, margins for success weren’t so thin. “Prices on prospecting are way more expensive than three years ago because everybody already understands what could potentially be the finish line.”
Recent multimillion-dollar sales, high demand from an influx of collectors and the uber-rarity of a one-of-one card justifies Allen betting big on Dominguez. Despite that, he admits that the sale was met with wide eyes. (One shocked hobby mainstay called Allen after the sale finalized, saying: “Bit of stretch, Matt?”)
Sure, Allen says he paid $100,000 for a Wander Franco Superfractor in 2019, two years before the former top prospect debuted with the Tampa Bay Rays. But Dominguez was far riskier; there was less of a sample size to work off. Allen could try to capitalize on that unrealized potential any time but, if Dominguez is as good as billed, that return-on-investment could soar.
“Then later on, [flippers, or prospectors who cash in at the earliest opportunity] are kicking themselves because it’s worth $1,000,000,” says Allen, who claims to have rejected a $1.8 million offer for the aforementioned Franco recently. “So it’s the people who just make that small percent margin … or people who can afford to hold it. I’ve spent like $9 million on cards in the past three weeks and I haven’t even released any of this stuff.”
Craig notes an example: A friend has an autographed one-of-one Superfractor of Seattle Mariners rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez, a 2022 MLB All-Star and likely AL Rookie of the Year. Following his Home Run Derby heroics, he was offered $1,000,000 for it. He turned it down.
“Prospecting, in general, is gambling,” Craig says. “Some people can actually look at a player, see he’s a five-tool guy, in the right organization and situation, and make an educated bet that he’s going to be a superstar.”
When Mike Trout’s 2009 Bowman Chrome Draft Prospects Superfractor sold for $3.94 million in August of 2020, he was already a three-time AL MVP. Goldin rattled off names of the supposed next big things of yesteryear, all hyped before their first MLB Opening Day. There was Bryce Harper and Ichiro on one hand, and Stephen Strasburg and Gregg Jefferies on the other.
Then he stopped.
“Oh, actually,” he said. “This is the single most obvious one …”
A light went off in his head.
“’89 Ken Griffey Jr.”
COMPARING DOMINGUEZ TO Ken Griffey Jr. is, at once, astounding and fitting. Within the hobby, Griffey’s iconic Upper Deck rookie card — the first card in its 1989 debut release — is the most famous example of prospecting, both from a manufacturing and collecting standpoint.
It’s the reason that modern prospecting is what it is. It also nearly killed the hobby.
In the late 1980s, sports cards were a billion-dollar business. A hobby shop called The Upper Deck partnered with businessmen breaking into the industry, with lofty aspirations: Start creating superior baseball cards.
Topps’ half-century monopoly on baseball cards ended in 1980, allowing new companies to compete in the space. But card technology was rudimentary and Upper Deck knew collectors wanted upscale products: higher quality cardstock, foil pack wrappers instead of wax, hologram technology dissuading fraud, all which would motivate consumers to devour a product that cost double, per pack, what Topps cost. Even their credo was decades ahead of its time: “Upper Deck: For the kid on the street and the Wall Street investor.”
But they wanted their debut release to kick off with a wunderkind, rather than the conventional established star.
In 1988, Griffey was raking at High-A San Bernardino, which played home games 7 miles from the school attended by an Upper Deck employee; he’d eventually choose him as the debut set’s face. Junior finished the season at Double-A Vermont and had never been photographed in a Seattle Mariners uniform, so Upper Deck superimposed Seattle regalia over a Sports Illustrated photo of him in San Bernardino garb, despite even bullish estimates pegging him as a midseason call-up.
When “The Kid” hit .397 in spring training and made the Opening Day roster, collectors went hunting for Griffey’s rookie en masse, which is where things went awry.
Unbeknownst to collectors at the time, Upper Deck reportedly printed more than two million Junior rookie cards. To date, it’s one of the two most often graded cards of all-time. It was an era without transparency of how many of each card manufacturers produced. Baseball, always the hobby’s most popular sport, was propping up the entire industry. And overproduction, coupled with the 1994 MLB strike, nearly sank it — Junior’s smiling visage the scapegoat.
Serial numbering was introduced in the early 1990s and one-of-ones debuted around 1997. Card collecting largely remained niche for the next decade, but as the economic recession of the late 2000s wreaked havoc, those with expendable income looked for investments outside the volatile stock market. Investing in cards from 2008 to 2018 proved more stable and lucrative (from a return-on-investment standpoint) than the S&P 500; the card industry was reborn as portfolio diversification.
“Chase” cards (cards collectors hunt and capitalize on) are most often one-of-one signed rookie cards. One-of-ones don’t exist without that Griffey rookie.
Allen’s $474,000 gamble on Dominguez — the rarest card of a prospect billed to rewrite record books under the MLB’s brightest, most famous lights — isn’t just a natural progression of the industry, but has direct lineage from Junior. It’s also a perfect storm of collecting’s evolution since the late 2000s.
But in 1989, with Upper Deck boxes running consumers $35, prospecting on “The Kid” wasn’t a mortgage-leveraging endeavor. In 2022, with a high-end card market producing boxes costing thousands, risky prospecting could decimate a savings account, another temptation as legalized gambling trickles about the United States.
But prospecting successfully, now more than ever, could also mean early retirement. For those who can afford it, that’s a risk worth taking.
“Cards were never considered an alternate asset class [until the last five years],” Goldin says. “People are looking at [cards] kind of like the next big biotech company.”
ANTHONY GIORDANO RESISTED getting his 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle card graded and sold for decades, despite repeatedly being offered millions. When he finally relented and sold it for an all-time sports collectible record $12.6 million in late August, it was what a generation — of his family and those in the industry — had been waiting for: The first eight-figure card sale.
It’s also the pie-in-the-sky denouement for Allen’s Dominguez card.
But Mantle and his hallowed 1952 Topps card have long been inked into lore. Dominguez’s story is not only still being written; the pen has barely touched paper.
So when Dominguez dropped a fly ball in the second inning of the 2022 Futures Game, laughed it off, then hit a prodigious home run into the bleachers at Dodger Stadium in the next half-inning, it was a reminder of the risk-reward of prospecting.
“Look, Dominguez in five years could be washed up and [prospectors] are onto the next new thing,” Allen says. “Most of it is hype.”
But that didn’t stop him from joyfully reading Dominguez’s stats as if, quite literally, off the back of his baseball card. He was watching the Futures Game when Dominguez’s ferocious swing, punctuated with a helicopter finish, deposited a round-tripper in the seats at Chavez Ravine, perhaps portending his future.
Allen’s first thought?
“Man,” he chuckled, “Everybody’s going to be going crazy for Dominguez now.”
Bryce Harper, who landed on the cover of Sports Illustrated at 16, was labeled a prodigy. Since arriving in the majors in 2012, he has won Rookie of the Year, collected two MVPs and was named to seven All-Star games. Pretty good, right? Several industry experts unanimously cite Harper as a hobby disappointment — “He was supposed to catapult a franchise, be the next Mickey Mantle,” says Craig — relative to expectations.
“Modern cards are more naturally volatile. There’s risk when a player’s active,” says Craig. “I’m a risk-averse guy, so if I were investing half a million dollars into a card, I’m going vintage.”
Means also thinks vintage is more reliable: “When you’re looking at Willie Mays, there’s no new story — Willie Mays is Willie Mays. It’s done. … [But] we’ve seen people stumble, where someone lays an egg during a playoff series. People can have slumps.
“Next thing you know, you’re seeing 20%, 30%, 50% drops in their card values.”
With all eyes on Dominguez in the Futures Game, Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge was set to play in the same stadium, in the All-Star Game itself, three days later. Judge, amid one of the best seasons in baseball history, was chasing the American League single-season home run record. And yet, in May, his 2013 rookie Superfractor sold for $150,000 less than what Allen paid for Dominguez’s.
What about reigning AL MVP and two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani, doing things in professional baseball not seen since Babe Ruth? His autographed 2018 Superfractor went for roughly 39% of Dominguez’s sum.
Dominguez, for his part, wasn’t yet challenging hallowed records or making an MVP push. He had been playing for the Hudson Valley Renegades. He debuted July 22 by hitting a game-tying, ninth-inning blast against the Wilmington Blue Rocks, sending shockwaves through social media. Two days later, as the MLB trade deadline closed in, Twitter nearly combusted when Renegades manager Tyson Blaser removed Dominguez from a game after six innings.
Was Dominguez getting traded? Nope. His Renegades had a comfortable lead, and Blaser felt his star had earned a rest. The deadline passed, too, and Dominguez remained unmoved.
The Yankees did make several moves — but they weren’t for Soto, who went to the San Diego Padres, or Castillo, who was dealt to the Mariners.
Time will tell if that’s a good thing for the Yankees — and for Allen. One thing’s certain: The value of Dominguez’s card is higher with him in pinstripes.
“The market matters and the Yankees are the epicenter of baseball markets,” says Craig. Allen says that epicenter is why he bought the card.
He knows Dominguez is a work in progress. But he also oozes rare five-tool talent that made him a scout darling through grainy YouTube clips of batting practice.
As Dominguez’s competition improved, so did his play; he had 16 extra-base hits and 17 steals, while hitting .306 with an on-base percentage at nearly .400, in his 40 games with the Renegades. In his last game in High-A, he hit two home runs, one from each side of the plate.
Allen was ecstatic when Dominguez graduated in September to Double-A Somerset — his second promotion in 61 days — following his South Atlantic League Player of the Week honor. After some growing pains — he went 2-for-23 in his first six games as a Patriot — he racked up a .563 batting average and a 1.838 OPS in his last four.
Better yet? He slugged two homers in Somerset’s final game of the season, a series-clinching win to vault the Patriots to their first Eastern League title, and first title since becoming the Double-A Yankees affiliate.
“I’m getting phone calls,” Allen says cheekily, “saying he’s more or less the hottest Yankee in their farm system.”
In fact, Allen said, one of his buddies wants the card, an interest symbolic of the market’s ever-evolving clientele. He’s a minority owner of an MLB team, who texted Allen from his yacht, off the Amalfi Coast.
Though Allen says he’s not concerned with the ebbs and flows of it all, he estimates he could get at least $600,000 for the Dominguez card if he wanted to. But he’s holding out for more.
“That card can break a million dollars,” he says, “before he even makes it to the major leagues.”
One of the winners in the first College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday was the Big 12. BYU (No. 7) and Texas Tech (No. 8) showed up in the top 10, and Utah sits within striking distance at No. 13.
It adds up to make Saturday’s matchup between the Cougars and Red Raiders — perhaps a Big 12 title game preview — the most consequential in college football. A loss for either team wouldn’t necessarily remove it from the playoff conversation but would strike a significant blow and leave little room for error down the stretch.
The two other ranked matchups this week are No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri and No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa. Look out for Iowa. The Hawkeyes are coming off a convincing win against Minnesota and appear to have turned a corner offensively. Meanwhile, the Ducks have had a couple of weeks to prepare after they failed to impress in a 21-7 win against Wisconsin on Oct. 25. — Kyle Bonagura
Jump to:
Texas A&M | Five freshmen to know
BYU-Texas Tech | Quotes of the week
How the Texas A&M got better in 2025
There haven’t been any wholesale schematic changes, it’s just that the Aggies finally added a couple of contributors at wide receiver to give offensive coordinator Collin Klein more juice. Other than that, they’ve just grown up. A&M’s offensive line was a giant weakness at the end of the Jimbo Fisher era, but offensive line coach Adam Cushing has worked wonders, fashioning a group in the running for the Joe Moore Award, which goes to the most outstanding OL unit. Quarterback Marcel Reed is in his first full season as the starter, so he has added experience, and the solid protection means he can get through his reads. But the additions of Mario Craver and KC Concepcion at receiver, one of only three tandems in the SEC who each have more than 500 receiving yards, have given the Aggies breathing room. The vertical threats open up the running game (Craver’s 455 receiving yards after the catch is the second most in the FBS), and Klein’s offense also stretches teams horizontally.
Last season, there just weren’t any A&M receivers getting separation. This season, Reed is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt beyond the line of scrimmage, the second-most air yards per throw in the SEC behind Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar. That kind of room opens up running lanes. The Aggies average 2.35 yards per rush before contact, third best in the SEC, and that also benefits Reed. He has had both passing and rushing touchdowns in four straight games, the longest streak by an Aggie since Johnny Manziel had five in 2012 and something only five SEC players have done in the past 15 years. — Dave Wilson
Five freshmen who’ve made a name for themselves
Bear Bachmeier, QB, BYU: Bachmeier left Stanford, hit the transfer portal and replaced a returning starter before playing a single snap this fall. On Saturday, he leads the unbeaten Cougars into a pivotal Big 12 showdown at No. 8 Texas Tech with BYU in the thick of the playoff hunt. Bachmeier has delivered on the dual-threat promise he flashed out of high school, accounting for 2,101 all-purpose yards and 20 total touchdowns in eight starts. Among true freshman quarterbacks, he ranks first nationally in completion percentage (58.7%), passer rating (95.2) and yards per attempt (7.9). And at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, Bachmeier is also getting it done on the ground, entering Week 10 tied for seventh in rushing scores (9) among FBS passers. The Cougars’ first-year quarterback appears to be the full package, and Bachmeier is a big reason No. 7 BYU hits the back end of the regular season firmly contending for a playoff spot.
Mason Heintschel, QB, Pitt: A three-star prospect in the 2025 class, Heintschel has been a revelation for the 24th-ranked Panthers, who appeared in the College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday for only the second time since December 2021. Pitt (7-2) is 5-0 since Heintschel took over for season-opening starter Eli Holstein at Boston College on Oct. 4. Over those five games, Heintschel has thrown for 1,547 yards with 12 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. One of only five true freshman quarterbacks with 200-plus passing attempts in the FBS, Heintschel sits tied with Maryland’s Malik Washington for the most TDs within that group and trails only Bachmeier in completion percentage (64.1%) and passer rating (92.0). Turnovers — nine total in five games — have been a problem for Heintschel, and his ball security and relative inexperience will be tested in matchups with Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami to close the regular season.
Caleb Hawkins, RB, North Texas: For all the (warranted) conversation about Mean Green quarterback Drew Mestemaker, Hawkins is writing an unlikely success story of his own in the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense this fall. Fresh off a 33-carry, 197-yard, 4-touchdown performance against Navy in Week 10, the three-star newcomer from Shawnee, Oklahoma, leads all freshman running backs across the country in attempts (121), rushing yards (744) and touchdowns (11). Among FBS rushers with at least 50 carries this fall, Hawkins ranks tied for fifth in rushing scores and 11th in yards per attempt (6.1). Inevitably, Hawkins’ breakout debut season is already earning him the attention of Power 4 programs as a potential offseason transfer portal target. But for now, he’s one of the key parts of a high-scoring offense that has North Texas contending for an American Conference title, and in turn, a potential place in the playoff field.
Graceson Littleton, CB, Texas: A late addition to the Longhorns’ top-ranked 2025 recruiting class, the 6-foot, 180-pound defensive back has become a fixture in a new-look Texas secondary powering the nation’s 25th-ranked pass defense. Primarily operating at slot corner, Littleton has tallied 33 total tackles and a pair of pass breakups while playing more snaps (409) than all but four other Longhorns defenders this fall, and his two interceptions — including a fourth-quarter pick against Oklahoma on Oct. 11 — leave him tied for the national lead among freshmen defensive backs across the FBS. Through nine games, Littleton has blossomed into an instant contributor with the makings of a future star in the Texas secondary, where he and the No. 11 Longhorns are staring down a pair of daunting late-season matchups with No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M.
Malachi Toney, WR, Miami: The pass catcher they call “Baby Jesus” in Coral Gables isn’t just putting together the best freshman receiving season across the FBS. Toney, who reclassified from the 2026 cycle to enter college early, is also already one of the nation’s productive wide receivers. No first-year pass catcher has recorded more targets (66), receptions (52) and receiving yards (632) than Toney in 2025. And among all receivers nationally, the 5-11 newcomer from Liberty City, Florida, ranks seventh in yards after catch (390) and 16th in first-down receptions (31). Toney, who has yet to drop a pass in his college career, has immediately become one of the country’s most electrifying playmakers this fall, and he projects to be a central contributor to whatever the 18th-ranked Hurricanes do from here — in 2025 and beyond. — Eli Lederman
What do BYU, Texas Tech need to capitalize on to win?
BYU: Keep it close. This is a team that has proved it has the poise to pull out close games, and in a game like this, that matters. Texas Tech has been winning more convincingly and it was perhaps its lack of experience in tight contests that backfired against Arizona State a few weeks ago.
For true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, Texas Tech’s impressive front seven will force him to make faster decisions. It will be his most challenging test of the season and he needs to play close to error-free for BYU to find a rhythm on offense.
Despite the undefeated record, BYU hasn’t been as good defensively as it was a year ago. This would be a perfect game to reach its capabilities. — Bonagura
Texas Tech: In a must-win game for the Red Raiders’ Big 12 title hopes, they need to keep quarterback Behren Morton protected and healthy. Will Hammond is out for the season and can’t step in to save the day if Morton goes down again. Finishing drives is a major challenge in this one. No FBS team has kicked more field goals in the red zone than Texas Tech (15-for-15 this season), and Utah coming up short on three fourth-down conversions in field goal range helped swing the Holy War game.
On defense, Texas Tech’s No. 1-ranked rushing defense needs to contain Big 12 leading rusher LJ Martin and get Bachmeier into third-and-long. The freshman has been disciplined in those situations with an 88.4 QBR and no turnovers and can scramble out of trouble, but he hasn’t yet faced David Bailey and Romello Height. — Max Olson
Quotes of the week
“I think we are desperate,” Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said of his unbeaten Aggies. “I tell them all the time: You know, we have earned everything that we’ve got, right? We’ve got a record. We’ve got a ranking. We’ve got opportunities that we have worked really, really hard to earn. And, every single Saturday, someone is coming in and trying to take all of that from us, and that’s the urgency that we have.”
“They’re big humans that take up a lot of space,” Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire said of BYU’s talent on both sides of the line of scrimmage. “We’re going to have to do a great job up front on our double-teams. You know, we’re going to have to win our one-on-ones. I think that’s huge.”
Miami’s Mario Cristobal on the message to his team after the Hurricanes’ Week 10 loss to SMU: “When things go wrong, that’s when all the rats start to come out and try to peck at you and all that other stuff. You got to go tell them to go. You know what? Go to work, and do it emphatically and do it with some guts. Go fix the things that we have to fix so we can go get better and win.”
Oregon’s Dan Lanning ahead of the No. 9 Ducks’ Week 11 trip to No. 20 Iowa: “I’m shocked this team isn’t ranked [in the AP poll]. If you look at the way they’ve been playing, especially recently, and the job that they’ve done. They jumped out really fast against the Minnesota team that plays good football, had a big win this past weekend. So I think this team probably is not getting near enough credit that they deserve for the kind of team that they are.”
“The reality is college football needs to be decided on the field,” Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz said in a critique of the College Football Playoff committee’s initial rankings. “There needs to be play-in games. There’s not another sport in the country that is decided — besides NCAA basketball, NCAA baseball and NCAA football — by committees. Like, decide it on the field. Just like pro sports do.”
Clemson’s Dabo Swinney on accountability in officiating this week: “Refs are people, too. It ain’t just coaches and players. And if they’re a part of the game, then by god, they ought to be a part of the game and they ought to be a part of the accountability. They ought to be a part of the consequences, not just behind some shadowy curtain. Like no, they ought to have to answer for it.”
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Bill Connelly
The stakes are officially set. We know what the College Football Playoff committee thinks of all the requisite contenders — we know that Oregon could be in trouble with another loss, that Notre Dame is in excellent shape and that the ACC probably is getting only one team in (which is all it deserves). Now it’s time to see how this all plays out.
Week 11 should be a delight. We get a battle of top-10s in Lubbock and a bigger-than-expected upset attempt in Iowa City. The SEC’s top two teams, though safe in the playoff race, face unique tests. The ACC and American Conference races might gain some clarity, and they might grow even sloppier.
What shifts will we see and where? Here’s everything you need to follow in a rather off-the-beaten-path Week 11.
The biggest game in Lubbock in 17 years
No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech (noon, ABC)
For just the fifth time in history, a top-10 Texas Tech team will host a top-10 opponent on Saturday. The Red Raiders lost two such games back in the 1970s, but they won a pair in 2008. You probably remember at least one of them.
That’s the last time “College GameDay” was in town. It’ll be there Saturday. Hell yeah.
In this moment, with the Big Ten and SEC attempting to further distance themselves from the rest of the sport in terms of both money and power, BYU and Texas Tech in particular are trying to disrupt the party a bit. BYU was testing the boundaries of NIL possibilities right after NIL became a thing and is milking a large and monied fan base to solid effect in both football and basketball. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has the most famous NIL billionaire in the game running television commercials and openly questioning the judgment of the sport’s most powerful individuals.
Oh yeah, and both teams are awesome this season. Despite starting a true freshman quarterback, BYU is playing the most mature ball in the Big 12. The Cougars don’t always start games well, but they finish them strong, especially on the road — they ended on a 31-3 run against Iowa State and 24-7 against Colorado, and they scored late and then won in overtime at Arizona. They know that 60 minutes is a long time, they’re brilliant in the turnover, third-down and red zone departments on defense, and the offense gets both efficiency from the running game and big plays from receivers Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston. And Bear Bachmeier, the aforementioned freshman QB, is up to 18th in Total QBR, ahead of former BYU starter Jake Retzlaff (now at Tulane), among others. Since a Week 2 semi-dud against Stanford, he ranks 11th.
I wouldn’t advise leaving things ’til late against Texas Tech, however, as the Red Raiders might have put the game away by then. Their eight wins have come by an average of 34 points, and their only loss, a last-second defeat at Arizona State, came without quarterback Behren Morton, who is listed as probable for Saturday.
This is a fascinating test for Bachmeier. Inexperience can strike when it’s least desirable, and if it’s going to hit Bachmeier, it will probably be in Lubbock, facing a unique and hostile crowd and a unique and hostile defense. The Red Raiders have forced 20 turnovers (second nationally) and three-and-outs on 44% of possessions (fifth). David Bailey and Romello Height have combined for 17.5 sacks, and Jacob Rodriguez is the best linebacker in the country. They rank in the top 20 in sack rate while rarely blitzing.
Bachmeier’s supporting cast is strong, with an experienced line, Roberts and Kingston out wide and running back LJ Martin next to him in the backfield. Some freshmen might get on the field because of certain elite traits, but they’re usually forced to learn how to overcome obvious weaknesses. For Bachmeier, his elite trait is his lack of obvious weaknesses.
Bachmeier’s accuracy is perhaps merely average — as represented by CPOE (completion rate over expected) in the chart above — but his well-roundedness is startling for a first-year guy. Against an elite Utah defense, he was able to grind out success, averaging only 6.6 yards per dropback but throwing no picks and rushing nine times for 71 yards and a rugged, game-clinching 22-yard touchdown on third-and-11. But here comes an even bigger test. Meanwhile, the BYU defense will have to cope with a balanced and explosive offense featuring two high-end running backs (Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams) and a diverse receiving corps with five players between 21 and 41 receptions.
The winner of this one will head into the season’s homestretch with quite a bit of margin for error in the CFP hunt; the loser, however, will be right on the border. At 16th in SP+, BYU has what appears to be its best team since the glorious 2020 team that went 11-1 and ranked fourth. But this might be Tech’s best team ever. Four Red Raiders teams have finished in the SP+ top 10 — 1954, 2005, 2008 and 2009 (here’s your regular reminder that Mike Leach was a fantastic head coach) — but not one finished higher than eighth. Tech is currently fourth, and that’s with the ASU game dragging it down. The upside is immense, and Saturday, Lubbock will be the center of the college football universe.
Current line: Tech -10.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 9.7 | FPI projection: Tech by 2.7
A sloppy track in Iowa City
No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The current weather forecast for Iowa City on Saturday afternoon is sloppy: Temperature in the low-to-mid-40s, 90% chance of rain. That’s some serious Iowa November weather, though come to think of it, it’s pretty Oregon, too, isn’t it?
Tuesday’s CFP rankings revealed some vulnerability for Dan Lanning’s Ducks. They’re awesome on paper (third in both SP+ and FPI), but they’ve played only two SP+ top-50 teams and lost to their only top-tier opponent (Indiana). One of the things that makes me uneasy about the way we discuss strength of schedule is that we seemingly treat it as a choice — Oregon chose to play a weak schedule, therefore the Ducks don’t deserve to rank as high even though they’re clearly very good. It’s not their fault preseason No. 2 Penn State face-planted after losing to the Ducks, just as it’s not their fault that Oklahoma State, a nonconference opponent scheduled years ago when the Cowboys were consistently excellent, has become one of the worst power conference teams in recent history.
Regardless, Oregon is where it is, and the Ducks have a tricky homestretch, with ranked Iowa, USC and Washington teams to come. Iowa has been underrated all season — the Hawkeyes are still somehow unranked in the AP poll despite suffering losses only in an early-season rivalry game against Iowa State (when ISU was soaring) and by five points to an Indiana team that has beaten everyone else by double digits. They’re 17th in SP+, sixth on defense, and their offense is good at all the things that Iowa always wants to be good at but very much wasn’t between 2021 and 2023: rushing (11th in rushing success rate*), penalty avoidance (fewest penalty yards), turnover avoidance (fifth-fewest turnovers) and short yardage (second in third-and-short success rate).
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is generating 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
They’re as reliant as ever on the run, but how they run is wonderfully unpredictable.
Here’s how to interpret that chart: Bigger dots mean higher frequency, and lighter dots mean higher efficiency. The dots are pretty much the same size, and the efficiency levels are solid across the board.
Now, once the Hawkeyes are behind schedule, they’re toast. But they’re averaging 2.56 points per drive; their best average in the past 20 years was 2.36 in 2008. That’s been more than enough for the typically awesome Iowa defense to take control. Ends Max Llewellyn and Ethan Hurkett are spicy pass rushers, and the secondary gets the requisite ball-hawking from corners TJ Hall and Deshaun Lee and slot corner Zach Lutmer.
Of course, Oregon hasn’t shown us many weaknesses beyond an inability to beat a thus-far unbeatable Indiana team. Quarterback Dante Moore and the offense struggled against Indiana’s elite defense but have otherwise averaged 44.3 points and 7.8 yards per play. Edge rusher Teitum Tuioti and the Oregon defense struggled against Indiana’s elite offense but have otherwise allowed just 11.1 points and 3.9 yards per play.
We haven’t gotten a nice, big upset at Kinnick Stadium in a little while. Iowa hasn’t hosted a top-10 team since 2022 (Michigan) and hasn’t beaten one at home since 2021 (Penn State). Oregon is awesome, but this should be quite the challenge. And in challenging conditions, no less.
Current line: Oregon -6.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 7.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 5.1.
Will a top SEC team go down?
The SEC’s race isn’t as messy as the ACC’s or American’s, but we still have five teams pretty heavily involved: Per SP+, Alabama has a 33.2% title chance, followed by Texas A&M (30.1%), Georgia (16.1%), Ole Miss (11.3%) and Texas (7.8%).
The two front-runners are in excellent shape playoff-wise, but they have work to do this weekend. A&M visits Missouri — a team that had its own realistic CFP ambitions before losing quarterback Beau Pribula to injury two weeks ago — while Bama is a single-digit favorite against suddenly mysterious LSU.
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Coaches and old-school commentators love telling you how important it is for an offense to stay on schedule. But unlike old-school views on things like fourth-down attempts or the dangers of passing, this is correct. Efficiency is vital in college football; it’s one of the reasons success rate is one of the key pieces of my SP+ ratings.
Staying on schedule might be just about all that matters in Columbia on Saturday. If we break things into standard downs (first downs, second-and-7 or less, third- or fourth-and-4 or less) and passing downs (everything else), we see why pretty quickly.
When A&M has the ball
Standard downs success rate: A&M offense first (58.2%), Mizzou defense fifth (37.7%)
Passing downs success rate: A&M offense 88th (27.5%); Mizzou defense sixth (21.5%)
A&M is elite on standard downs. The Aggies’ running game is quite efficient, and quarterback Marcel Reed averages 9.7 yards per dropback on standard downs, completing 69% of his passes at 14.4 yards per completion and scrambling for nearly 10 yards a pop too.
Reed averages only 6.4 yards per dropback on passing downs, however, while his interception rate nearly doubles and his sack rate triples. Mizzou’s defense is sixth nationally in success rate allowed, and the Tigers generate pressure on 44% of dropbacks. Reed is elusive, but if Mizzou leverages the Aggies behind schedule, they’ll make a lot of stops.
That’s good, because they’ll be giving a true freshman quarterback (Matt Zollers) his first career start against an aggressive A&M defense.
When Mizzou has the ball
Standard downs success rate: Mizzou offense 28th (51.9%), A&M defense 28th (43.2%)
Passing downs success rate: Mizzou offense 15th (37.7%), A&M defense ninth (22.1%)
A&M’s defense is vicious on passing downs. Led primarily by Missouri native Cashius Howell and Dayon Hayes, the Aggies rank second in sack rate. Nothing can rattle a freshman QB faster than constant pressure, so Mizzou has to hope that the combination of backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts in the running game and a quick passing game — albeit one that might be without tight end Brett Norfleet (listed as questionable) — can keep Zollers in favorable situations. He was a top-100 prospect, and he threw the ball pretty well filling in against Vanderbilt, but his passing has been mostly short and controlled.
That’s a tight radius of completions. At one point or another, Zollers will be asked to make tough throws to the sideline; if he can’t, A&M will crowd the box and make life awfully difficult.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 1.2 | FPI projection: A&M by 1.4
LSU at No. 4 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)
In 2022, future Heisman winner Jayden Daniels outdueled former Heisman winner Bryce Young, and LSU knocked off No. 6 Alabama in overtime. With that result, the Tigers won the SEC West in Brian Kelly’s first season in charge and reignited one of the defining rivalries of the 2010s.
Three years later, Kelly has been fired. He lost his last two Bama games by a combined 43 points, and he lost six of his last 14 games overall. His teams were never bad or even mediocre — unlike another Nick Saban-beating head coach who was recently fired (Auburn’s Hugh Freeze) — but he set the highest possible bar for himself and didn’t clear it. Interim coach Frank Wilson and the Tigers now are left looking to spoil a season or two down the stretch.
They’re still talented enough to do it. The LSU defense, fatigued from carrying a disappointing offense and suffering in the absence of star linebacker Whit Weeks, collapsed in Kelly’s final two games. But it’s still talented, and Weeks has been upgraded to questionable. The offense, now coordinated by former Florida State OC Alex Atkins, could benefit from the element of surprise, not to mention a week of rest for consistently battered quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. If the Tigers land some early haymakers, this could get weird.
Of course, at this point Bama is used to facing stiff challenges. They’ve defeated four ranked opponents, and they’re 3-0 in one-score finishes. Quarterback Ty Simpson remains a major Heisman contender, injured receiver Ryan Williams is listed as probable, and the Tide probably will be ready for a fight.
Current line: Bama -9.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 8.7 | FPI projection: Bama by 9.9
ACC contenders try to avoid potholes
After last week’s ACC chaos, SP+ currently gives six teams a fighting chance at the conference crown: Louisville (28.0%), Virginia (25.6%), Georgia Tech (16.7%), Duke (11.3%), Pitt (8.4%) and SMU (8.0%). Even Miami is still at 2.0%.
This week doesn’t give us any head-to-head matchups between these contenders, but while Duke is off gallivanting with UConn in nonconference play, Pitt is on bye and Miami and Louisville are significant favorites, two contenders face semi-interesting tests.
Wake Forest at No. 14 Virginia (7 p.m., ESPN)
Wake Forest had won three straight games before last week, but the Demon Deacons visited Florida State, absorbed all of the Seminoles’ bad mojo and laid a spectacular egg in a 42-7 loss. Every play seemed to feature miscommunication or a massive individual error.
Any remaining game in which that version of Wake shows up is an automatic loss, but the pre-FSU version could threaten a Virginia team that has flirted with disaster for weeks. The Cavaliers are 8-1 and the vice-favorite in the ACC, but they’ve won their past five games by an average of 4.8 points, three in overtime. They’re just 43rd in SP+.
Wake’s all-or-nothing offense has been mostly nothing of late, scoring 20 combined points in two games, but UVA’s secondary is vulnerable to “alls,” and receiver Chris Barnes is a solid downfield threat. You’re watching this for the other matchup, though. UVA’s offense and Wake’s defense are fun and explosive. The Hoos’ offensive line could struggle with an active Wake front — the Deacs are seventh in stuff rate and third in pressure rate — but backs J’Mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee are excellent after contact, and quarterback Chandler Morris is one of the best in the nation at escaping pressure and getting rid of the ball. UVA is only 53rd in success rate but bumps up to 16th on third downs. Morris has been a godsend, and he and the Hoos tend to come through late.
Current line: UVA -6.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 9.9 | FPI projection: UVA by 8.6
SMU at Boston College (noon, ACCN)
SMU just worked its way back into the ACC race with its upset of Miami; surely the Mustangs wouldn’t turn around and blow it against 1-8 Boston College, right? Probably not. But it’s worth noting that BC has overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 12 points in back-to-back games, giving both Louisville and Notre Dame more resistance than expected. This is a long trip and an early kick, and if SMU doesn’t bring a certain level of energy, things could get awkward.
SMU’s offense has struggled at times, but the defense has surged despite a growing injury list. BC’s Bill O’Brien has lost faith in quarterback Dylan Lonergan, and though backup Grayson James usually offers more with his legs, he’s even less efficient passing, and he has been battling a hip pointer.
This is a just-in-case watch: BC could make it interesting, but it’s not incredibly likely.
Current line: SMU -11.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.2 | FPI projection: SMU by 11.0
The Group of 5 game of the week
Tulane at Memphis (Friday, 9 p.m., ESPN)
While one-loss James Madison and San Diego State lurk, the American Conference champ will be very well positioned to snag the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP slot. There are currently six American teams with one conference loss; Memphis is one of them, as are each of the Tigers’ last three opponents — Tulane, East Carolina and Navy. This is a tricky homestretch, especially with quarterback Brendon Lewis‘ status uncertain after he suffered another lower-body injury against Rice. Backup AJ Hill was good late against UAB after Lewis exited, but this isn’t a great time to deal with QB uncertainty. Without accounting for Lewis, SP+ still gives the Tigers only a 32% chance of winning these next three games.
But Tulane’s recent form has to give the Tigers hope. After close calls a couple of times, the Green Wave finally found it with last week’s blowout loss at UTSA. After being as high as 38th in SP+, they’ve fallen to 66th, and while Jake Retzlaff and the passing game remain strong, the run game is inconsistent and the defense was lit up for 48 points and 7.6 yards per play in San Antonio.
Retzlaff should be able to find some success, but Tulane’s poor defense will have to make stops at some point, and Memphis’ skill corps is deep and diverse, with Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr. in the backfield and big-play receivers Cortez Braham Jr. and Jamari Hawkins out wide.
Current line: Memphis -3.5 (down from -6.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Memphis by 13.3 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.2
Week 11 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And thanks to NC State’s win over Georgia Tech, we jumped back up to .500 (5-5) last week.
In the immortal words of Lou Brown in “Major League,” if we win today, it’s called two in a row. If we win again tomorrow, it’s called a winning streak. SP+ says there’s only a 42% chance that Virginia (73% win probability against Wake Forest), James Madison (80% against Marshall), SMU (84% against Boston College) and USC (86% against Northwestern) all win. Let’s take down a playoff (or at least ACC title) contender.
Week 11 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Northwestern at No. 19 USC (9 p.m., Fox). USC’s playoff hopes might have remained alive because of an injury; the Trojans were trailing Nebraska 14-6 when Dylan Raiola went down and they rallied to a 21-17 win. Now they host a Northwestern team that lost to Raiola’s Huskers by seven the week before. Northwestern games feature no big plays for either team, and the Wildcats are built to muck this one up for a bit.
Current line: USC -14.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 17.5 | FPI projection: USC by 17.5
Early Saturday
No. 5 Georgia at Mississippi State (noon, ESPN). Mississippi State finally ended a two-year SEC losing streak and has been playing competitive ball with no elite traits but few grave weaknesses. Since this is a Georgia game, though, we can probably just stop the analysis there and assume that the Bulldogs trail late and win anyway. It’s a thing they like to do.
Current line: UGA -9.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: UGA by 7.1 | FPI projection: UGA by 8.7
No. 2 Indiana at Penn State (noon, Fox). Penn State became only the second team to hit 14 points against Ohio State last week, but the Nittany Lions’ defense succumbed to the Buckeyes’ big plays. Now comes another top-two opponent; outside of two SP+ top-20 opponents, Indiana has beaten mortals by an average of 53-9, and PSU looks awfully mortal. Will it matter that IU’s injury list is growing?
Current line: Indiana -14.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 12.0 | FPI projection: Indiana by 10.9
No. 1 Ohio State at Purdue (noon, BTN). Purdue has massively improved this season, but thanks to three recent one-score losses, the Boilermakers have lost seven in a row and are going to be significant underdogs in each of their last three games. Ohio State actually had to get a little aggressive against Penn State but looked great doing so. That probably says bad things about this matchup.
Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 (up from -28.5) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 29.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 29.1
James Madison at Marshall (noon, ESPN2). JMU has shifted into fifth gear of late, scoring 115 points and gaining 1,135 yards in its past two games to charge up the CFP contenders list. But the Dukes’ defense has grown a bit leaky, and Marshall has averaged 41 points over its past six games. Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and the Herd are capable of throwing JMU’s playoff hopes for a loop.
Current line: JMU -13.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 13.4 | FPI projection: JMU by 8.6
Southern Miss at Arkansas State (noon, ESPNU). Remember last year, when Charles Huff won the Sun Belt title with Marshall, then took the Southern Miss job and took a quarter of his roster with him? Well, his Golden Thundering Herd Eagles have won four games in a row to move to 6-2. ASU has also won four in a row, and the winner of this one will be a huge favorite to win the Sun Belt West.
Current line: USM -4.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 6.5 | FPI projection: USM by 2.8
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 16 Vanderbilt (4 p.m., SECN). LSU isn’t the only SEC team hoping for an interim boost, as DJ Durkin takes over at Auburn. The Tigers still defend beautifully — 11th in defensive SP+ — but Vandy is averaging 23.3 points against top-15 defenses. Can Auburn score that much against any defense with a pulse at this point?
Current line: Vandy -6.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 8.7 | FPI projection: Vandy by 5.7
Iowa State at TCU (3:30 p.m., Fox). Iowa State has lost four straight, but three were by one score and the other was tied in the fourth quarter. TCU has won two straight to get to 6-2, but both were also by one score. The records don’t tell the whole tale here, but TCU’s run defense will probably render ISU inefficient, and quarterback Josh Hoover should find success against a tattered Cyclones secondary.
Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 4.0 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.3
Kansas at Arizona (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Both of these teams rebounded from 1-3 stretches with comfortable wins last week, and both are a win from bowl eligibility after missing out last season. This one should be decided when KU’s Jalon Daniels drops back to pass: He remains efficient, but Arizona ranks fifth nationally in yards allowed per dropback. Fun matchup there.
Current line: Arizona -5.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 8.2 | FPI projection: Arizona by 3.5
No. 23 Washington at Wisconsin (4:30 p.m., BTN). Wisconsin plays its sixth game against an SP+ top-25 team, with two more to come. Washington puts up huge points against any less-than-elite defense, and Wisconsin isn’t elite at a damn thing. The Huskies are 6-2 and have a good chance to be 9-2 with win-and-you’re-in playoff hopes when Oregon visits for Rivalry Week.
Current line: Huskies -10.5 | SP+ projection: Huskies by 18.4 | FPI projection: Huskies by 6.2
Stanford at North Carolina (4:30 p.m., The CW). UNC is overachieving against SP+ projections by two touchdowns per game over the past three. The key to the Heels’ turnaround? A defense that has turned good against the run and fantastic against the pass. Pass rusher Melkart Abou Jaoude is smoking hot and will probably get to know Stanford quarterback Ben Gulbranson awfully well.
Current line: UNC -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 9.5 | FPI projection: UNC by 3.0
Duke at UConn (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). UConn has played ACC teams as if it were auditioning for a spot in the league, walloping BC and going to overtime with pre-collapse Syracuse. The Huskies make a ton of big plays, and Duke gives up just as many, so for the Blue Devils to avoid a nonconference upset they’ll have to take full advantage of a shaky UConn run front and a soft pass defense.
Current line: Duke -9.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 0.8 | FPI projection: Duke by 6.1
Syracuse at No. 18 Miami (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Miami has underachieved its offensive projections by 6.2 points per game over its past five; a total lack of big plays has removed the possibility of easy points, and Carson Beck‘s interception-prone tendencies (six in his past three games) have become a problem. Will any of this matter Saturday? Nope. Syracuse’s offense is 12 steps beyond terrible at this point.
Current line: Miami -28.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 27.6 | FPI projection: Miami by 26.8
Saturday evening
Florida State at Clemson (7 p.m., ACCN). Under Mike Norvell, FSU has struggled to course-correct when the vibes go south, but beating a solid Wake team by 35 might have offered quite the correction. Will there be a correction for Clemson this season? The odds of the 3-5 Tigers reaching even 6-6 this season are down to 39%, per SP+, and that number would plummet with a fifth home loss. Fifth!
Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 0.8
California at No. 15 Louisville (7 p.m., ESPN2). Cal has done a nice job of taking advantage of a weak schedule, but the Golden Bears have lost to three SP+ top-50 opponents by an average of 37-14, and at 23rd in SP+, Louisville is by far the best team they’ve faced. That probably doesn’t bode well, though with star back Isaac Brown injured, the Cardinals might not take full advantage of Cal’s dreadful run defense.
Current line: Louisville -20.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 20.1 | FPI projection: Louisville by 18.6
Navy at No. 10 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC). Notre Dame has won its past six games by an average score of 39-15. The Irish meet an equally torrid Pitt next week, but first they must handle an all-or-nothing Navy team that moves the ball as well as ever but ranks 103rd in points allowed per drive. You can run into trouble against the Midshipmen, but it’s hard to shake the memory of last year’s 51-14 blowout.
Current line: Irish -25.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 17.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 27.2
Late Saturday
Nebraska at UCLA (9 p.m., Fox). I’ve almost never seen a disagreement between spread and SP+ projection as big as the one below. Dylan Raiola’s season-ending injury is the reason for the variance, but exactly how many points is a starting quarterback worth? Freshman backup TJ Lateef was a deer in headlights filling in against USC, but if he’s merely composed, Nebraska’s defense is good enough to make this a dogfight.
Current line: UCLA -2.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 13.1 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 4.7
San Diego State at Hawai’i (11 p.m., MW App). SDSU keeps creeping along as a playoff sleeper, having won six straight games by an average of 29-7. The Aztecs are second nationally in both points allowed per drive and yards allowed per play, but when Micah Alejado is dealing, Hawaii is a handful. When Alejado throws for 300-plus, the Rainbow Warriors score 30-plus.
Current line: SDSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 10.9 | FPI projection: SDSU by 3.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 15 North Dakota (2 p.m., ESPN+). We have a pair of big in-state rivalry games in the Missouri Valley this week. Reeling South Dakota State desperately needs a win at No. 25 South Dakota, but one state up, North Dakota is looking for just its second Nickel Trophy win over NDSU in 20 years. (Granted, the rivals have played only six times in that span.) An upset would supercharge the Fighting Hawks’ playoff résumé, but we’ll see if any FCS team is capable of beating an absurdly dominant North Dakota State team that has let only one opponent stay within 17 points.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 12.5
Division III: No. 10 Wisconsin-La Crosse at No. 8 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., WIAC Network). First, the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference had a six-way tie at 2-1. Then four 3-1 teams paired off last week. And now, last week’s winners, both 4-1, pair off again. It has been a logistically perfect WIAC race, and now we get an upstart — UWRF, which hasn’t won an outright conference title in 40 years and destroyed longtime heavyweight Wisconsin-Whitewater last week — hosting the 2023 WIAC champ with two games to play.
SP+ projection: UWRF by 6.0
FCS: No. 14 Southeastern Louisiana at No. 18 Lamar (4 p.m., ESPN+). Consider me surprised that Southeastern Louisiana is only 14th in the FCS polls. Dual quarterbacks Carson Camp (better passer) and Kyle Lowe (better runner) and the Lions have lost only to Louisiana Tech and LSU and have beaten seven FCS opponents by an average of 47-12. Lamar is 7-2 itself and does something rare in the Southland: defend. But SLU is the favorite for a reason.
SP+ projection: SLU by 9.0
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