Padres-Dodgers NLDS is set: Everything you need to know about the eight remaining MLB playoff teams
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adminAfter an action-packed Wild Card to get the 2022 MLB playoffs going, there are eight teams left battling for World Series glory entering the division series round.
With an extra round to begin the postseason and the possibility that this year’s Fall Classic extends to a Game 7 on Nov. 5, it was a very short October stay for some — and we could ultimately see the latest championship celebration in MLB history for the last squad standing.
Will the favored Los Angeles Dodgers rule the National League or will the repeat-minded Braves make another deep run? Can anyone in the American League keep the New York Yankees and Houston Astros from squaring off in the ALCS?
MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with everything from odds for every matchup and a predicted date of each team’s last game to the best- and worst-case scenario for all eight remaining World Series hopefuls.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
Bracket | Our picks | Wild-card takeaways
Jump to a team:
SEA | CLE | NYY | HOU
PHI | SD | ATL | LAD
American League
They made it this far, but …
No. 5 seed | 89-72 | AL wild second card
ALDS opponent: Astros (36.2% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.9% | Caesars odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 17
How they could stay around longer: Refuse to Lose. Anything Can Happen. True to the Blue. Believe. Hey, after Cal Raleigh clinched Seattle’s playoff spot and ended the franchise’s 21-year-old playoff drought with a dramatic pinch-hit, two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth, 3-2 count, walk-off home run — and then Seattle pulled off the comeback of all postseason road comebacks to eliminate Toronto on Saturday. Maybe destiny really is on the Mariners’ side. If you want a baseball reason, the bullpen is deep and built for October. But they’ll need to score some runs and to do that, how about a dream scenario: Rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez returns from the sore back that sidelined him at the end of September and has a postseason for the ages. — Schoenfield
What could send them home soon: The pitching will need to carry them, but it also looked a little fatigued at times down the stretch. Luis Castillo had three rough September starts when he suddenly lost it in the middle innings. Rookie George Kirby had been a model of consistency until a recent bad outing (and is well beyond his innings total from 2021). Robbie Ray had two scoreless starts in September mixed in with three mediocre ones. The bullpen was pushed hard throughout the season and closer Paul Sewald has been homer-prone of late. The Mariners don’t score enough runs to leave much margin for error, so the entire staff will need to bring it. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros won 12 of 19 games against the Mariners, but they outscored Seattle by only eight runs. In the six games started by Justin Verlander, however, the Astros outscored their division rivals 30-11. Houston won five of those starts. In his past three outings against Seattle, Verlander allowed three runs in 21⅔ innings. In other words — it’s going to be crucial for Seattle to take advantage on the days Verlander doesn’t pitch. Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have a 5.40 ERA in 48⅓ innings against the M’s this year. — Gonzalez
No. 3 seed | 91-70 | AL Central champs
Wild-card opponent: Yankees (37.7% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 2.9% | Caesars odds: +3500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 17
How they could stay around longer: The Guardians have drawn comparisons to the 2014-15 Royals for their style of play: Contact hitting, speed, defense … and a dominant bullpen. Emmanuel Clase is as good as any closer this side of Edwin Diaz and the top three setup relievers in front of him — James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan and lefty Sam Hentges — have all been outstanding. They’re hard to hit, they strike batters out and all four are stingy with the home run. The pen has been even better since the beginning of July, with the second-best ERA in the majors behind the Dodgers. Get a lead through five or six and the Guardians almost always hold it. October baseball has become more and more about the bullpens and Cleveland can match up with any team. — Schoenfield
What could send them home soon: Lack of power. The Guardians have the fewest home runs of the playoff teams and you win in the playoffs by hitting home runs. Don’t buy that? In last year’s postseason, the team that hit more home runs went 25-2-10 — that’s 25 wins, two losses and 10 games where the teams hit the same number. No, the Royals didn’t hit a lot of home runs in 2014 or 2015, but they did hit them in the playoffs (and that was an era with fewer home runs in general). It certainly would be fun to see the Guardians scratch and claw their way to the World Series, but more likely they’ll have to power up. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The only AL team that put the ball in play more often than the Astros was the Guardians — by a pretty sizable margin. Cleveland also stole the third-most bases in the majors and led the sport in going first to third on a single. Putting the ball in play and running the bases both effectively and aggressively is the Guardians’ recipe for success in October, not just against the Astros but against everyone. The Astros are the second-best defensive team in the postseason field, according to outs above average. But Martin Maldonado was below league average in caught-stealing percentage this season. The Guardians need to get on base and they need to run — and just hope the series doesn’t turn into a slugfest. — Gonzalez
Better pack for the whole month
No. 2 seed | 99-63 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Guardians (62.3% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 15.6% | Caesars odds: +500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 25
How they could stay around longer: Maybe it’s unfair, but it feels like so much is riding on Gerrit Cole’s performance, especially since Frankie Montas wasn’t the big rotation addition the Yankees expected. When Cole bombed out early in the wild-card game against the Red Sox last season, the Yankees went home. He’s still striking out a ton of batters, but he also led the American League with 33 home runs allowed — 16 of them off his four-seam fastball. Cole was especially homer-prone in September with 10 in 36 innings and in his four career postseason starts with the Yankees he has allowed six in just 20⅓ innings. He has to figure out how to keep the ball in the park. — Schoenfield
What could send them home early: Opponents pitch around Aaron Judge and the rest of the lineup fails to knock him in. When the Yankees struggled with a 10-18 record in August, they averaged just 3.61 runs per game — even as Judge hit nine home runs and drove in 22 runs. But as he continued mashing throughout the season, teams started walking him more often: 13 times in May, 15 in June, 17 in July, 25 in August and 30 in September. The Yankees led the AL in runs, but they can’t expect one man to carry them for an entire postseason. It’s worth noting that in seven games against the Astros they hit just .151. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros famously got the best of the Yankees during the regular season, winning five of seven. The encouraging news if you’re a Yankees fan: All seven games were decided by three runs or fewer. The not-so-encouraging news: The Yankees didn’t throw a single pitch with a lead. Both of their victories came as a result of come-from-behind rallies followed by walk-off hits from Judge. But the Astros were one of few teams that were actually able to keep Judge mostly in check, holding him to a .148/.258/.370 slash line. Needless to say, Judge’s bat needs to come alive in this potential heavyweight matchup. And the Yankees will have to play a clean, mistake-free brand of baseball. — Gonzalez
Most likely to be playing in November
No. 1 seed | 106-56 | AL West champs
ALDS opponent: Mariners (63.8% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 18.2% | Caesars odds: +380
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
Why they are the AL’s team to beat: Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, the two veteran holdovers from the 2017 World Series champions who continue to get booed around the league, do serious damage at the plate. Altuve quietly had one of his best seasons, with an OPS+ that matched his MVP season in 2017. Bregman, meanwhile, had a big second half, the best he’s hit since 2019. Altuve has been outstanding in his postseason career (.286/.361/.567, 23 home runs in 79 games) while Bregman less so (.226/.339/.400, 12 home runs in 73 games), but if they’re getting on base in front of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, good things can happen. — Schoenfield
What could send them home early: The bottom of the lineup fails to contribute. The Astros don’t get much from their catchers, Martin Maldonado and Christian Vazquez (who hasn’t homered for Houston since coming over from Boston at the trade deadline). Yuli Gurriel had a rough season. Trey Mancini, the other trade acquisition, has hit under .200 for the Astros. Rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena has seen his numbers drop in the second half. This lineup simply lacks the depth of some other Houston teams of recent vintage. If the big four don’t click, it could be a quick exit — no matter how dominant Justin Verlander and the rest of the rotation is. — Schoenfield
Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: Most of the Dodgers’ postseason pitching plan remains a mystery, but one thing has already been declared by manager Dave Roberts: Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson will make up three-fourths of their postseason rotation. What do they all have in common? They’re all lefties. And the Astros — with a right-handed-heavy lineup headlined by Bregman and Altuve — feasted on left-handed pitching this season. Their best hitter, the left-handed-hitting Alvarez, was elite against lefties, too. In a matchup of two teams that are pretty closely matched, it could make the difference. If the Astros can make a habit out of scoring early, they could claim their second World Series title against the Dodgers — and their first without a cheating scandal. — Gonzalez
National League
They made it this far, but …
No. 6 seed | 87-75 | NL third wild card
NLDS opponent: Braves (38.8% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.9% | Caesars odds: +3500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 16
How they could stay around longer: The bullpen falls into place. Philadelphia has a 5.04 bullpen ERA since the beginning of September, a big contributor to Philly’s near-collapse down the stretch. Injuries have included Corey Knebel (done for the season) and Brad Hand (question mark for the playoffs). David Robertson will be a part of the high-leverage mix. Other solutions have emerged: converted starter Zach Eflin has flourished out of the bullpen, and Jose Alvarado has been as hot as any reliever. Struggling Seranthony Dominguez regaining the dominant form he flashed before an August injury might be enough to push the Phillies over the hump. — Doolittle
What could send them home soon: .The Phillies own MLB’s third-highest homer rate and while they aren’t the most longball-dependent offense in the postseason, they aren’t far off. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins & Co. need to combine for two or three bombs per game or the Phillies will have a hard time turning the scoreboard. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The 2019 Washington Nationals proved you don’t need to be incredibly deep or even well-rounded to defeat the Dodgers in a short series. Sometimes, if the top of your roster is elite, you just need your best players to perform to their capabilities. Harper and Schwarber combined for a 1.315 OPS in 54 plate appearances against the Dodgers this season, but Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler combined to allow nine runs in 17⅔ innings. In those four — and catcher J.T. Realmuto — the Phillies boast upper-echelon talent. They’ll need them to do most of the heavy lifting to defeat L.A. — Gonzalez
No. 5 seed | 89-73 | NL second wild card
NLDS opponent: Dodgers (24.8% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 3.5% | Caesars odds: +2800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 16
How they could stay around longer: Juan Soto goes off. Soto went into a funk not long after the monumental midseason trade that sent him to San Diego. While his overall San Diego numbers are down even from his subpar pre-trade numbers in Washington, Soto has quietly been trending up over the past couple of weeks. And let’s not forget that when the Nationals won the World Series in 2019, Soto’s huge postseason as a 20-year-old had a lot to do with it. All the hand-wringing over Soto’s post-trade play would be forgotten if he has a big October. — Doolittle
What could send them home soon: The Padres’ rotation, especially Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove, carried them into the playoffs down the stretch. That success needs to continue, but it wouldn’t have mattered had closer Josh Hader not straightened himself out. After a catastrophic start to his Padres career, Hader finished strong — making his midseason slump all the more bewildering. What happens if the bizarro Hader returns? San Diego will be done, that’s what will happen. Sure, you can say the same thing about every team that leans on a primary closer — but not every team saw its relief ace pitch like Hader did in August. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Padres struggled mightily against their Southern California rivals this season, losing 14 of 19 and getting outscored by a combined 62 runs. To beat L.A., they’ll need to make sure Yu Darvish pitches as often as possible and Sean Manaea doesn’t pitch against the Dodgers at all. They’ll need Soto and Manny Machado to be at their best. They’ll need Hader to be the lockdown closer they thought they were getting at the start of August. And they’ll need contributions from several others. Most of all, perhaps, they’ll need to summon some confidence. — Gonzalez
Better pack for the whole month
No. 2 seed | 101-61 | NL East champs
NLDS opponent: Phillies (61.2% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 13.2% | Caesars odds: +600
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 24
How they could stay around longer: If the bullpen falls into place like it did last October, look out. The Braves’ are entering the playoffs with a more stable rotation outlook than a year ago, so Brian Snitker shouldn’t need to lean quite as heavily on his fireman as he did en route to the 2021 title. But even if he does, the Atlanta bullpen as a group has been smoking hot of late — led by trade acquisition Raisel Iglesias, who has allowed one earned run in 27 outings since he joined the Braves. Kenley Jansen has been very good, as have Collin McHugh, A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee. If Tyler Matzek can find last season’s consistency, there might not be a bad lever for Snitker to pull. — Doolittle
What could send them home early: A couple of lifeless cutters in the wrong situation by Jansen. This isn’t to pick on Jansen. He’s had an excellent first season in Atlanta. He leads the NL in saves and is on a pretty good roll entering the playoffs. But he still isn’t the shutdown hammer he was during his prime, and the Braves are such a complete team that there isn’t much else that might be a glaring issue. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Braves and Dodgers have met in back-to-back NLCS, splitting the two series, and they seem poised square off again. Outside of the Astros, the Braves might be the closest to matching the Dodgers’ depth and balance. Their separator could be in the bullpen. The three guys who entered this season as the Dodgers’ most important back-end relievers are either lost for the year (Daniel Hudson), pitching in low-leverage situations because of ineffectiveness (Craig Kimbrel) or recovering from injury (Blake Treinen). The Braves are as deep as ever in the back end of their bullpen, and this is a clear advantage for them. — Gonzalez
Most likely to be playing in November
No. 1 seed | 111-51 | NL West champs
NLDS opponent: Padres (75.2% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 34.2% | Caesars odds: +300
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
Why they are the team to beat in all of MLB: During the regular season, depth is what jumps to mind. L.A. has a roster and system of processes with so much quality redundancy built in that it’s hard to remember a time when we didn’t simply pencil the Dodgers in for a playoff spot before a season began. Depth isn’t irrelevant in the playoffs, but it’s clearly not as big a factor with the possible exception of the back of the bullpen. The thing is, the Dodgers aren’t just about depth. They are about all of the things, and a team with star power like this has a talent edge on everyone. And, oh yeah, they just won 111 games with the run differential that suggests they were actually a little unlucky. — Doolittle
What could send them home early: The term “Achilles’ heel” has become such a sports cliche. If the Dodgers falter, maybe we’ll have to update it to “L.A. closer.” Like in the NFL, you might say, “They have an airtight defense but their L.A. closer is the lack of a quality third corner.” The Dodgers have run roughshod over the majors all season and have such a depth of impact talent in the organization that it’s dizzying. And yet they enter the playoffs with an uncertain end-of-game situation because of the struggles of Craig Kimbrel. It’s hard to fathom. — Doolittle
Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: First, a tangible one: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman. The Dodgers’ dynamic top-of-the-lineup trio is what separates them from everyone, even the most elite. No team can boast the combination of bat-to-ball skills, power and baserunning that those three possess in abundance. –
Now, an intangible one: Revenge. Betts, Turner and Freeman were not with the Dodgers when they lost the 2017 World Series to an Astros team that was later found to have illegally stolen signs. But a few others — Clayton Kershaw, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger and Austin Barnes — were. And beating the Astros on this stage would qualify as the ultimate payback, no matter how much these rosters have changed over the last five years. — Gonzalez
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Sports
How a Sugar Bowl scramble exemplified the best of Riley Leonard at Notre Dame
Published
4 hours agoon
January 9, 2025By
admin-
David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterJan 9, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
The easiest way to understand why quarterback Riley Leonard has Notre Dame on the verge of its first national title game in more than a decade is to watch him run.
Really, any run will do. But perhaps the best — or at least, most recent — example is the run on third-and-7 with 5:53 left in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. The Irish were nursing a 23-10 lead, chewing up the final minutes in a game of keep-away, and Leonard needed a conversion. He took the snap, took a half-step forward, then tucked the ball and darted outside. He slid out of a tackle behind the line with a stiff-arm, then outran a defender to the perimeter. At the line to gain, he met Georgia star Malaki Starks head-on. Starks went low. Leonard leaped — flew almost — in a head-first jailbreak for the marker.
Leonard soared over Starks, landed 3 yards beyond the line-to-gain, popped up with the ball in his hand and signaled for the first down.
The crowd went wild. His teammates went wild. Leonard, the kid from a little town in southwest Alabama, at least reached something close to wild.
“Everybody keeps telling me to stop doing that,” Leonard said of the hard run. “I did it. And it worked out. But we’re in the playoffs, so it’s like — put your butt on the line.”
Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard flipped over him for the first down 😯 pic.twitter.com/p1JNgmQOCw
— ESPN (@espn) January 3, 2025
Notre Dame’s drive ate another four minutes off the clock, and after stuffing Georgia on downs, the Irish celebrated a Sugar Bowl win — their biggest victory in more than 30 years. Now, their next biggest game is a date with Penn State in the playoff semifinals on Thursday in the Capital One Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN).
Notre Dame is here for many reasons, but perhaps the biggest one is Leonard’s drive to win at all costs. Not that anyone doubted Leonard’s competitiveness when he arrived at Notre Dame in January as an injured transfer from Duke. But what he has shown in the past three months since the Irish last lost a football game — a loss Leonard took full responsibility for — is that he’ll put his butt, his shoulder, his head and anything else he needs to on the line if it means winning a football game.
“It’s in his DNA,” said offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. “I knew he was a competitive guy. That’s a strong trait we knew he had. But it’s so much greater than I’d imagined. He’s a winner, and he brings people around him to his level. And I think that’s the biggest compliment you can give a quarterback.”
Those runs like the Sugar Bowl scramble are the height of playoff football, but Leonard has been doing this since he was young. He played some wide receiver growing up, and he loved going across the middle. He torments defenders at practice, teammate RJ Oben said, because he’ll run hard even wearing a noncontact jersey. He played baseball, too, and his father, Chad, jokes that Riley knew how to slide feet-first then, but he refuses to do it on the football field.
“I hold my breath waiting for him to get up,” said Heather Leonard, his mother, “but when they need something, he’s always going to get it.”
It’s the dichotomy of Riley’s approach. He is overlooked, polite, smiley and understated, and yet at the same time he’s utterly driven to win at a level even other players find hard to capture.
Perhaps that’s the secret to those runs. He’s underestimated, and he’s relentless.
“I don’t understand why I’m hard to tackle, honestly,” Leonard said. “I don’t have very good juke moves. I’m very tall. Not intimidating, at least on the field. But guys just miss.”
Plenty of people missed on Leonard coming out of high school.
Back in Fairhope, Alabama, he played football and baseball, but basketball was his passion. College basketball was the dream until COVID-19 hit and scuttled Leonard’s best opportunities to impress college recruiters. That’s when he started to seriously consider football as an alternative. Turns out, one of his coaches was pals with former Duke coach David Cutcliffe, who liked what he saw in Leonard. Duke was Leonard’s only FBS scholarship offer.
Leonard’s first college start came on Nov. 13, 2021. It was 17 degrees in Blacksburg, Virginia. Winds swirled, and the crowd was ferocious. Leonard was so out of sorts, he forgot his mouthguard leaving the locker room, then amid the team’s run onto the field for kickoff, he turned and retreated, pushing his way through a sea of charging teammates to retrieve it, like an overwhelmed performer retreating from the stage.
Leonard threw for just 84 yards in that game. Three weeks later, Cutcliffe was fired at Duke after the team finished 3-9. Mike Elko arrived for 2022, and Leonard opened fall camp that year in the midst of a QB competition, which he narrowly won before the opener.
He won that game. Then another. And he kept on winning.
Duke finished 2022 a surprising 9-4, Leonard started gaining legitimate attention from NFL scouts, and after upending Clemson in the 2023 opener, the attention reached a fever pitch.
None of it fazed the kid from Fairhope.
Back in his high school days, he began a tradition with his mom. He wanted to avoid the pitfalls of success and stay grounded in the work, so he asked her to text him with the same message before every game: “You suck.” He now wears a green wristband with the same words. Leonard’s biggest fear has always been forgetting how hard it is to win. Appreciating the difficulty is his secret weapon.
Football delivered another reminder of its fickle nature just as the wave of Riley-mania reached its zenith in Durham. Duke was 4-0, and Leonard had the Blue Devils on the brink of a program-defining win over Notre Dame. But the Irish broke a late run to take the lead, Leonard injured his ankle in a failed comeback attempt, and over the next eight months, he struggled to get back on the field, endured three surgeries, and ultimately transferred to South Bend, joining the program that had effectively ended his miraculous run at Duke.
For Leonard, Notre Dame represented a chance to finish his college career at a level that might have seemed unimaginable when it began.
“I wanted an opportunity to reach my potential as a player,” he said. “I’m at a point in my career now where I have the most confidence in my game. I understand this offense probably more than any offense I’ve ever been in.”
It didn’t start out that way though.
Notre Dame opened its season with a hard-fought win over Texas A&M, but one in which Leonard and the offense struggled to move the ball through the air. A week later, the one-dimensional attack proved costly. Northern Illinois‘ defense utterly flummoxed Leonard, and the Huskies stunned Notre Dame 16-14. It was arguably the biggest upset of the college football season, and any hopes for the playoff were on life support.
That version of Riley Leonard looked lost.
“I don’t even think I’d recognize the player that was playing earlier on in the season,” he said recently.
Leonard isn’t into making excuses, but he had missed all of spring practice and much of the summer. He simply hadn’t had enough reps with his new team. He was frustrated — even if he rarely let it show, Heather said.
“That was one of the hardest weeks of his life,” Heather said. “It definitely took a toll on him, but he also knew he had to move on.”
Leonard promised his team he’d be better. He took the blame for the loss, and he assured his teammates he’d approach the rest of the season the same way he does those third-down runs. He would leave nothing in the tank.
“He took it on his shoulders,” said tight end Mitchell Evans. “You could see it in the way he practices, his mindset, his confidence — he has grown in a remarkable way. That’s what you have to do to be the Notre Dame quarterback.”
After four games, Leonard had yet to throw a touchdown pass in a Notre Dame uniform.
But in the 10 games since, Leonard has completed 68% of his throws, has an 81.1 Total QBR, and has 17 touchdown passes to just four picks. And the 13-1 Irish haven’t lost again.
“Riley has shaken off the ‘he’s just a runner’ thing people were saying about him,” said tailback Jeremiyah Love, “and we’re more explosive in the passing game. The running game is better than it was, and the offensive line has come together. We’re way better now.”
And so what if it was still a run — a hard, physical, acrobatic run — that served as Leonard’s highlight in Notre Dame’s biggest win of the year? He was hurting after the NIU loss because he felt like he had let his team down, but he had never listened to any of the criticism about his arm. He said he doesn’t care how he’s perceived.
“The moment I start to say I need to throw this many yards or score this many touchdowns is when I get off track,” he said. “My job is to win the football game however that may look.”
He is two victories away from claiming his place among the greatest winners in the history of one of college football’s most storied programs. That’s a long way from the basketball courts in Fairhope.
But Leonard has never paid much attention to how far off his destination might seem. He likes to dream big, and if there are obstacles in his way, well, Georgia’s defenders found out how that goes.
The one thing that has changed in the waning moments of his unlikely college football career is Leonard is trying to take some time to reflect.
“I don’t think I would’ve written the story any differently,” Leonard said. “It’s cool now to go back and look at it. I don’t really do that too often, but I’m very proud of the person I’ve grown into.”
He still hasn’t watched film from that NIU game, but he said he will once the year’s over, because it’s a moment he now cherishes, one that helped him get to where he is now. It’s supposed to be difficult, he said. That’s what makes it fun.
“I try to remind myself to appreciate it — like, you’re living your dream,” he said. “I don’t want to live my dream and then end up thinking you shouldn’t have taken that for granted. But moments like these make me appreciate it.”
Sports
How a Sugar Bowl scramble exemplified the best of Riley Leonard at Notre Dame
Published
9 hours agoon
January 9, 2025By
admin-
David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterJan 9, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
The easiest way to understand why quarterback Riley Leonard has Notre Dame on the verge of its first national title game in more than a decade is to watch him run.
Really, any run will do. But perhaps the best — or at least, most recent — example is the run on third-and-7 with 5:53 left in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. The Irish were nursing a 23-10 lead, chewing up the final minutes in a game of keep-away, and Leonard needed a conversion. He took the snap, took a half-step forward, then tucked the ball and darted outside. He slid out of a tackle behind the line with a stiff-arm, then outran a defender to the perimeter. At the line to gain, he met Georgia star Malaki Starks head-on. Starks went low. Leonard leaped — flew almost — in a head-first jailbreak for the marker.
Leonard soared over Starks, landed 3 yards beyond the line-to-gain, popped up with the ball in his hand and signaled for the first down.
The crowd went wild. His teammates went wild. Leonard, the kid from a little town in southwest Alabama, at least reached something close to wild.
“Everybody keeps telling me to stop doing that,” Leonard said of the hard run. “I did it. And it worked out. But we’re in the playoffs, so it’s like — put your butt on the line.”
Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard flipped over him for the first down 😯 pic.twitter.com/p1JNgmQOCw
— ESPN (@espn) January 3, 2025
Notre Dame’s drive ate another four minutes off the clock, and after stuffing Georgia on downs, the Irish celebrated a Sugar Bowl win — their biggest victory in more than 30 years. Now, their next biggest game is a date with Penn State in the playoff semifinals on Thursday in the Capital One Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN).
Notre Dame is here for many reasons, but perhaps the biggest one is Leonard’s drive to win at all costs. Not that anyone doubted Leonard’s competitiveness when he arrived at Notre Dame in January as an injured transfer from Duke. But what he has shown in the past three months since the Irish last lost a football game — a loss Leonard took full responsibility for — is that he’ll put his butt, his shoulder, his head and anything else he needs to on the line if it means winning a football game.
“It’s in his DNA,” said offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. “I knew he was a competitive guy. That’s a strong trait we knew he had. But it’s so much greater than I’d imagined. He’s a winner, and he brings people around him to his level. And I think that’s the biggest compliment you can give a quarterback.”
Those runs like the Sugar Bowl scramble are the height of playoff football, but Leonard has been doing this since he was young. He played some wide receiver growing up, and he loved going across the middle. He torments defenders at practice, teammate RJ Oben said, because he’ll run hard even wearing a noncontact jersey. He played baseball, too, and his father, Chad, jokes that Riley knew how to slide feet-first then, but he refuses to do it on the football field.
“I hold my breath waiting for him to get up,” said Heather Leonard, his mother, “but when they need something, he’s always going to get it.”
It’s the dichotomy of Riley’s approach. He is overlooked, polite, smiley and understated, and yet at the same time he’s utterly driven to win at a level even other players find hard to capture.
Perhaps that’s the secret to those runs. He’s underestimated, and he’s relentless.
“I don’t understand why I’m hard to tackle, honestly,” Leonard said. “I don’t have very good juke moves. I’m very tall. Not intimidating, at least on the field. But guys just miss.”
Plenty of people missed on Leonard coming out of high school.
Back in Fairhope, Alabama, he played football and baseball, but basketball was his passion. College basketball was the dream until COVID-19 hit and scuttled Leonard’s best opportunities to impress college recruiters. That’s when he started to seriously consider football as an alternative. Turns out, one of his coaches was pals with former Duke coach David Cutcliffe, who liked what he saw in Leonard. Duke was Leonard’s only FBS scholarship offer.
Leonard’s first college start came on Nov. 13, 2021. It was 17 degrees in Blacksburg, Virginia. Winds swirled, and the crowd was ferocious. Leonard was so out of sorts, he forgot his mouthguard leaving the locker room, then amid the team’s run onto the field for kickoff, he turned and retreated, pushing his way through a sea of charging teammates to retrieve it, like an overwhelmed performer retreating from the stage.
Leonard threw for just 84 yards in that game. Three weeks later, Cutcliffe was fired at Duke after the team finished 3-9. Mike Elko arrived for 2022, and Leonard opened fall camp that year in the midst of a QB competition, which he narrowly won before the opener.
He won that game. Then another. And he kept on winning.
Duke finished 2022 a surprising 9-4, Leonard started gaining legitimate attention from NFL scouts, and after upending Clemson in the 2023 opener, the attention reached a fever pitch.
None of it fazed the kid from Fairhope.
Back in his high school days, he began a tradition with his mom. He wanted to avoid the pitfalls of success and stay grounded in the work, so he asked her to text him with the same message before every game: “You suck.” He now wears a green wristband with the same words. Leonard’s biggest fear has always been forgetting how hard it is to win. Appreciating the difficulty is his secret weapon.
Football delivered another reminder of its fickle nature just as the wave of Riley-mania reached its zenith in Durham. Duke was 4-0, and Leonard had the Blue Devils on the brink of a program-defining win over Notre Dame. But the Irish broke a late run to take the lead, Leonard injured his ankle in a failed comeback attempt, and over the next eight months, he struggled to get back on the field, endured three surgeries, and ultimately transferred to South Bend, joining the program that had effectively ended his miraculous run at Duke.
For Leonard, Notre Dame represented a chance to finish his college career at a level that might have seemed unimaginable when it began.
“I wanted an opportunity to reach my potential as a player,” he said. “I’m at a point in my career now where I have the most confidence in my game. I understand this offense probably more than any offense I’ve ever been in.”
It didn’t start out that way though.
Notre Dame opened its season with a hard-fought win over Texas A&M, but one in which Leonard and the offense struggled to move the ball through the air. A week later, the one-dimensional attack proved costly. Northern Illinois‘ defense utterly flummoxed Leonard, and the Huskies stunned Notre Dame 16-14. It was arguably the biggest upset of the college football season, and any hopes for the playoff were on life support.
That version of Riley Leonard looked lost.
“I don’t even think I’d recognize the player that was playing earlier on in the season,” he said recently.
Leonard isn’t into making excuses, but he had missed all of spring practice and much of the summer. He simply hadn’t had enough reps with his new team. He was frustrated — even if he rarely let it show, Heather said.
“That was one of the hardest weeks of his life,” Heather said. “It definitely took a toll on him, but he also knew he had to move on.”
Leonard promised his team he’d be better. He took the blame for the loss, and he assured his teammates he’d approach the rest of the season the same way he does those third-down runs. He would leave nothing in the tank.
“He took it on his shoulders,” said tight end Mitchell Evans. “You could see it in the way he practices, his mindset, his confidence — he has grown in a remarkable way. That’s what you have to do to be the Notre Dame quarterback.”
After four games, Leonard had yet to throw a touchdown pass in a Notre Dame uniform.
But in the 10 games since, Leonard has completed 68% of his throws, has an 81.1 Total QBR, and has 17 touchdown passes to just four picks. And the 13-1 Irish haven’t lost again.
“Riley has shaken off the ‘he’s just a runner’ thing people were saying about him,” said tailback Jeremiyah Love, “and we’re more explosive in the passing game. The running game is better than it was, and the offensive line has come together. We’re way better now.”
And so what if it was still a run — a hard, physical, acrobatic run — that served as Leonard’s highlight in Notre Dame’s biggest win of the year? He was hurting after the NIU loss because he felt like he had let his team down, but he had never listened to any of the criticism about his arm. He said he doesn’t care how he’s perceived.
“The moment I start to say I need to throw this many yards or score this many touchdowns is when I get off track,” he said. “My job is to win the football game however that may look.”
He is two victories away from claiming his place among the greatest winners in the history of one of college football’s most storied programs. That’s a long way from the basketball courts in Fairhope.
But Leonard has never paid much attention to how far off his destination might seem. He likes to dream big, and if there are obstacles in his way, well, Georgia’s defenders found out how that goes.
The one thing that has changed in the waning moments of his unlikely college football career is Leonard is trying to take some time to reflect.
“I don’t think I would’ve written the story any differently,” Leonard said. “It’s cool now to go back and look at it. I don’t really do that too often, but I’m very proud of the person I’ve grown into.”
He still hasn’t watched film from that NIU game, but he said he will once the year’s over, because it’s a moment he now cherishes, one that helped him get to where he is now. It’s supposed to be difficult, he said. That’s what makes it fun.
“I try to remind myself to appreciate it — like, you’re living your dream,” he said. “I don’t want to live my dream and then end up thinking you shouldn’t have taken that for granted. But moments like these make me appreciate it.”
Sports
Can Penn State coach James Franklin win the big one?
Published
9 hours agoon
January 9, 2025By
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Heather Dinich, Senior College Football InsiderJan 9, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- College football reporter
- Joined ESPN.com in 2007
- Graduate of Indiana University
There’s no sugarcoating it: As Penn State‘s coach, James Franklin owns an abysmal 4-19 record against opponents ranked in the Associated Press top 10 — and is just 3-10 in such games when his team is also in the top 10.
It’s a mark that saw a small but significant boost with Penn State’s resounding 31-14 College Football Playoff quarterfinal win against No. 8-ranked Boise State in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, but with each step forward in the CFP bracket comes a greater opportunity — and louder doubters about Franklin’s ability to beat the best.
As the Big Ten runner-up and No. 6 seed in the College Football Playoff, the narrative surrounding Penn State was that they had arguably the easiest path to the national title — a home game against overmatched No. 11 seed SMU, followed by a matchup against Mountain West Conference champion and No. 3 seed Boise State. The Nittany Lions outscored their first two playoff opponents by a combined 69-24.
Now Franklin is two wins away from the school’s first national championship since 1986, but in order to win it, he has to do something that has eluded him during most of his career: beat a top-5 team. He is 1-14 at Penn State against AP Top-5 teams, the lone win coming in 2016 against No. 2 Ohio State. By comparison, former Alabama coach Nick Saban (30-16), former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer (14-5) and Georgia coach Kirby Smart (11-7) all have winning records against AP Top-5 opponents, according to ESPN Research. Ohio State coach Ryan Day, though, is 5-6 against them, and former Penn State coach Joe Paterno was 3-12 in his first 15 games against AP Top-5 teams at Penn State.
Franklin is also 0-5 against teams ranked in the top five by the CFP selection committee, and he has lost those games by an average of 20.4 points according to ESPN Research. The Nittany Lions will face Notre Dame (No. 3 AP/No. 5 CFP) on Thursday in a College Football Playoff semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) in what is undoubtedly the biggest game of Franklin’s career.
Franklin “understands” his fans’ frustration. He declined to comment for this story but said this following a 20-13 loss to No. 4 Ohio State on Nov. 2: “Nobody is looking in the mirror harder than I am. I’ve said this before, but 99% of the programs across college football would die to do what we’ve been able to do in our time here.”
Despite his struggles against top teams, Franklin enters the Orange Bowl with a record of 101-41 and is 64-33 in the Big Ten over the past decade in State College. That includes five top-10 finishes, a Big Ten title (2016) and regular appearances in New Year’s Six bowl games. Under Franklin, Penn State joins Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State as the only programs that have ranked in the selection committee’s final top 12 at least seven of the past nine seasons.
He has six years left on his contract and the support of his administration.
“I’m not going to give credence to the criticism, because I see it differently,” said Penn State athletic director Patrick Kraft, who was hired at Penn State on July 1, 2022 after serving two years as the athletic director at Boston College. “When I got here, I was really surprised where just the infrastructure and how everything was set up, how behind we really were. Yes, wins and losses are what we are all judged on, but I will tell you, the culture of that building and the young men he brings in and graduates are second to none.
“You don’t see behind the curtain as a fan or just someone watching,” Kraft said, “and when you get behind the curtain, the thing that oozes out for me is culture and family. That’s really how it’s built, but the infrastructure behind it wasn’t matching that culture and we still have a ways to go. So yes, we want to win every single game — that’s the expectation for every program, but to see what he has done and that consistency is what’s remarkable to me.”
As a former Big Ten head coach who spent seven seasons leading Indiana, first-year Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen has studied the Nittany Lions from the inside out. He has game-planned against Franklin, and now he’s trying to help Franklin win his first national title. Allen heard Franklin’s critics when he was at Indiana, and he has heard them again as a member of Franklin’s staff.
“Now that I’m here and I see the behind-the-scenes and the day-to-day and see how much of a bulldog he is — that’s the word I use — he’s a bulldog for the details and the little things and just being on top of everything,” Allen said. “To me, those criticisms, they’re not fair, but until you win those big games, they’re going to be there. And I think we all as coaches understand that.”
What Franklin has accomplished so far is often overshadowed by what he hasn’t. According to ESPN Research, when Franklin won his 100th game at Penn State in the first-round against SMU, he became the fourth FBS coach to win 100 games at a single school since he headed to State College in 2014. The career milestone put him in elite company, joining Dabo Swinney at Clemson (129 since 2014), Nick Saban at Alabama (127 from 2014-23) and Kirby Smart at Georgia (105 since 2016).
There’s one thing separating Franklin from the rest of the group, though — multiple national titles.
“We don’t run away from the expectation,” Kraft said. “Being the head coach of Penn State, there’s so much scrutiny on him and he handles it really well internally. He and I are partners in this.”
One current Big Ten head coach said the expectations of Franklin should mirror the resources he has to work with.
“Ryan Day has been in championships, Clemson has been in championships, Bama has won them, Michigan has won them,” he said. “If the Penn State expectation is they should have at least played for championships in 10 years of his tenure, then no, he’s not successful, right? If their expectation is, ‘Hey, we only have resourced him to be a 10-win team, January 1 bowl team, right at the bottom of the blue bloods from a resource standpoint — which I don’t know — then yeah, he matches the expectations of a 10-win guy. If you’re a blue blood, are you being resourced like Clemson, like Michigan, like Ohio State, like the people we’re comparing them to, because it’s not fair to have that expectation if he hasn’t had the resources.”
Kraft said so much of Penn State’s growth under Franklin has come behind the scenes with things like working to build the budget for NIL, salaries for assistant coaches, stadium renovations and improvements for Penn State’s student-athletes in all sports in areas such as mental health, nutrition and travel — all things that ultimately contribute to winning a national title but happen off the field.
“You have to build the infrastructure in-house,” Kraft said. “That is what I think has really improved is allowing him — and all of our sports — to go and do the things they need to do internally to get to the championship level.”
A second Big Ten head coach said the most noticeable improvements with Penn State and Franklin this year are twofold: the hire of two proven coordinators in Allen and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and Franklin’s overall growth as a head coach in certain situations.
“James has surrounded himself, in my opinion, with maybe the best coordinator combo in our league,” the source said. “Now James has been able to manage games and do the things he’s good at for the first time. He’s at a different level as a head coach.
“I get it, I get the narrative,” the coach said, “but that’s probably based on more of the past than the present. Even him having a better understanding of how you’ve got to use your players. He’s been at Penn State so long, he’s always been the favorite, so when he gets in these games where he’s the underdog, you’ve got to not only play different, you’ve got to strategize different. And when he ran that fake punt against Minnesota … I don’t think he’s ever had to do that before, and he’s kind of realizing, this is what I’ve got to do to win this game. I can’t just win it on my talent alone. And there’s a learning curve for that.”
Kotelnicki said Franklin doesn’t get enough credit for being as consistently good as he has. From 2016 to 2019, Franklin led Penn State to 42 wins, the most in program history for the Big Ten era, and a school-record 28 conference wins.
“It’s really hard to win, and to do it over a decade like he has as a head football coach here, it’s really hard,” Kotelnicki said in the Nittany Lions’ locker room following their win against Boise State. “I’ve had the opportunity in my life to work with some pretty good head coaches. He’s in elite company for sure. So I don’t know if [beating Boise State] is going to silence the critics — probably not. … But I hope it does [calm down] a little bit for his sake. He deserves a little, ‘Alright, OK, I guess he’s OK.'”
Penn State’s defense was more than “OK” in the Fiesta Bowl win against Boise State, and it will have to play at a championship-caliber level for Franklin to improve his record and advance against the Irish. According to ESPN Research, the defense is at the heart of Penn State’s problem in previous top-10 matchups. The Nittany Lions have allowed 31 points per game in those matchups and 422 total yards. The defense has also allowed 190 rushing yards per game under Franklin in top-10 matchups.
Against Boise State and Ashton Jeanty, the Heisman runner-up was held to a season-low 104 rushing yards. That trend will need to continue: Notre Dame has relied on its running game this season, ranking in the top five in yards per rush and rushing touchdowns.
Penn State will be playing its third AP Top-5 matchup of the season, losing the previous two games against Ohio State and Oregon. The program’s woes run deeper than Franklin, too: The Nittany Lions haven’t won a top-five matchup since 1999 against No. 4 Arizona.
“You just have to do a great job of blocking that out, but also not being afraid to dig and find ways to create change,” Allen said. “That’s what I see him doing, is, ‘Hey, what can we do?’ and there’s this constant evaluation of how we practice, the game plans if something doesn’t go a certain way. I see him just being so relentless in that as the leader of our program. So to me, I just think it’s a matter of time.”
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