After an action-packed Wild Card to get the 2022 MLB playoffs going, there are eight teams left battling for World Series glory entering the division series round.
With an extra round to begin the postseason and the possibility that this year’s Fall Classic extends to a Game 7 on Nov. 5, it was a very short October stay for some — and we could ultimately see the latest championship celebration in MLB history for the last squad standing.
Will the favored Los Angeles Dodgers rule the National League or will the repeat-minded Braves make another deep run? Can anyone in the American League keep the New York Yankees and Houston Astros from squaring off in the ALCS?
MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with everything from odds for every matchup and a predicted date of each team’s last game to the best- and worst-case scenario for all eight remaining World Series hopefuls.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
How they could stay around longer: Refuse to Lose. Anything Can Happen. True to the Blue. Believe. Hey, after Cal Raleigh clinched Seattle’s playoff spot and ended the franchise’s 21-year-old playoff drought with a dramatic pinch-hit, two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth, 3-2 count, walk-off home run — and then Seattle pulled off the comeback of all postseason road comebacks to eliminate Toronto on Saturday. Maybe destiny really is on the Mariners’ side. If you want a baseball reason, the bullpen is deep and built for October. But they’ll need to score some runs and to do that, how about a dream scenario: Rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez returns from the sore back that sidelined him at the end of September and has a postseason for the ages. — Schoenfield
What could send them home soon: The pitching will need to carry them, but it also looked a little fatigued at times down the stretch. Luis Castillo had three rough September starts when he suddenly lost it in the middle innings. Rookie George Kirby had been a model of consistency until a recent bad outing (and is well beyond his innings total from 2021). Robbie Ray had two scoreless starts in September mixed in with three mediocre ones. The bullpen was pushed hard throughout the season and closer Paul Sewald has been homer-prone of late. The Mariners don’t score enough runs to leave much margin for error, so the entire staff will need to bring it. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros won 12 of 19 games against the Mariners, but they outscored Seattle by only eight runs. In the six games started by Justin Verlander, however, the Astros outscored their division rivals 30-11. Houston won five of those starts. In his past three outings against Seattle, Verlander allowed three runs in 21⅔ innings. In other words — it’s going to be crucial for Seattle to take advantage on the days Verlander doesn’t pitch. Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have a 5.40 ERA in 48⅓ innings against the M’s this year. — Gonzalez
Wild-card opponent: Yankees (37.7% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 2.9% | Caesars odds: +3500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 17
How they could stay around longer: The Guardians have drawn comparisons to the 2014-15 Royals for their style of play: Contact hitting, speed, defense … and a dominant bullpen. Emmanuel Clase is as good as any closer this side of Edwin Diaz and the top three setup relievers in front of him — James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan and lefty Sam Hentges — have all been outstanding. They’re hard to hit, they strike batters out and all four are stingy with the home run. The pen has been even better since the beginning of July, with the second-best ERA in the majors behind the Dodgers. Get a lead through five or six and the Guardians almost always hold it. October baseball has become more and more about the bullpens and Cleveland can match up with any team. — Schoenfield
What could send them home soon: Lack of power. The Guardians have the fewest home runs of the playoff teams and you win in the playoffs by hitting home runs. Don’t buy that? In last year’s postseason, the team that hit more home runs went 25-2-10 — that’s 25 wins, two losses and 10 games where the teams hit the same number. No, the Royals didn’t hit a lot of home runs in 2014 or 2015, but they did hit them in the playoffs (and that was an era with fewer home runs in general). It certainly would be fun to see the Guardians scratch and claw their way to the World Series, but more likely they’ll have to power up. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The only AL team that put the ball in play more often than the Astros was the Guardians — by a pretty sizable margin. Cleveland also stole the third-most bases in the majors and led the sport in going first to third on a single. Putting the ball in play and running the bases both effectively and aggressively is the Guardians’ recipe for success in October, not just against the Astros but against everyone. The Astros are the second-best defensive team in the postseason field, according to outs above average. But Martin Maldonado was below league average in caught-stealing percentage this season. The Guardians need to get on base and they need to run — and just hope the series doesn’t turn into a slugfest. — Gonzalez
ALDS opponent: Guardians (62.3% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 15.6% | Caesars odds: +500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 25
How they could stay around longer: Maybe it’s unfair, but it feels like so much is riding on Gerrit Cole’s performance, especially since Frankie Montas wasn’t the big rotation addition the Yankees expected. When Cole bombed out early in the wild-card game against the Red Sox last season, the Yankees went home. He’s still striking out a ton of batters, but he also led the American League with 33 home runs allowed — 16 of them off his four-seam fastball. Cole was especially homer-prone in September with 10 in 36 innings and in his four career postseason starts with the Yankees he has allowed six in just 20⅓ innings. He has to figure out how to keep the ball in the park. — Schoenfield
What could send them home early: Opponents pitch around Aaron Judge and the rest of the lineup fails to knock him in. When the Yankees struggled with a 10-18 record in August, they averaged just 3.61 runs per game — even as Judge hit nine home runs and drove in 22 runs. But as he continued mashing throughout the season, teams started walking him more often: 13 times in May, 15 in June, 17 in July, 25 in August and 30 in September. The Yankees led the AL in runs, but they can’t expect one man to carry them for an entire postseason. It’s worth noting that in seven games against the Astros they hit just .151. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros famously got the best of the Yankees during the regular season, winning five of seven. The encouraging news if you’re a Yankees fan: All seven games were decided by three runs or fewer. The not-so-encouraging news: The Yankees didn’t throw a single pitch with a lead. Both of their victories came as a result of come-from-behind rallies followed by walk-off hits from Judge. But the Astros were one of few teams that were actually able to keep Judge mostly in check, holding him to a .148/.258/.370 slash line. Needless to say, Judge’s bat needs to come alive in this potential heavyweight matchup. And the Yankees will have to play a clean, mistake-free brand of baseball. — Gonzalez
ALDS opponent: Mariners (63.8% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 18.2% | Caesars odds: +380
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
Why they are the AL’s team to beat:Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, the two veteran holdovers from the 2017 World Series champions who continue to get booed around the league, do serious damage at the plate. Altuve quietly had one of his best seasons, with an OPS+ that matched his MVP season in 2017. Bregman, meanwhile, had a big second half, the best he’s hit since 2019. Altuve has been outstanding in his postseason career (.286/.361/.567, 23 home runs in 79 games) while Bregman less so (.226/.339/.400, 12 home runs in 73 games), but if they’re getting on base in front of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, good things can happen. — Schoenfield
What could send them home early: The bottom of the lineup fails to contribute. The Astros don’t get much from their catchers, Martin Maldonado and Christian Vazquez (who hasn’t homered for Houston since coming over from Boston at the trade deadline). Yuli Gurriel had a rough season. Trey Mancini, the other trade acquisition, has hit under .200 for the Astros. Rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena has seen his numbers drop in the second half. This lineup simply lacks the depth of some other Houston teams of recent vintage. If the big four don’t click, it could be a quick exit — no matter how dominant Justin Verlander and the rest of the rotation is. — Schoenfield
Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: Most of the Dodgers’ postseason pitching plan remains a mystery, but one thing has already been declared by manager Dave Roberts: Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson will make up three-fourths of their postseason rotation. What do they all have in common? They’re all lefties. And the Astros — with a right-handed-heavy lineup headlined by Bregman and Altuve — feasted on left-handed pitching this season. Their best hitter, the left-handed-hitting Alvarez, was elite against lefties, too. In a matchup of two teams that are pretty closely matched, it could make the difference. If the Astros can make a habit out of scoring early, they could claim their second World Series title against the Dodgers — and their first without a cheating scandal. — Gonzalez
How they could stay around longer: The bullpen falls into place. Philadelphia has a 5.04 bullpen ERA since the beginning of September, a big contributor to Philly’s near-collapse down the stretch. Injuries have included Corey Knebel (done for the season) and Brad Hand (question mark for the playoffs). David Robertson will be a part of the high-leverage mix. Other solutions have emerged: converted starter Zach Eflin has flourished out of the bullpen, and Jose Alvarado has been as hot as any reliever. Struggling Seranthony Dominguez regaining the dominant form he flashed before an August injury might be enough to push the Phillies over the hump. — Doolittle
What could send them home soon: .The Phillies own MLB’s third-highest homer rate and while they aren’t the most longball-dependent offense in the postseason, they aren’t far off. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins & Co. need to combine for two or three bombs per game or the Phillies will have a hard time turning the scoreboard. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The 2019 Washington Nationals proved you don’t need to be incredibly deep or even well-rounded to defeat the Dodgers in a short series. Sometimes, if the top of your roster is elite, you just need your best players to perform to their capabilities. Harper and Schwarber combined for a 1.315 OPS in 54 plate appearances against the Dodgers this season, but Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler combined to allow nine runs in 17⅔ innings. In those four — and catcher J.T. Realmuto — the Phillies boast upper-echelon talent. They’ll need them to do most of the heavy lifting to defeat L.A. — Gonzalez
NLDS opponent: Dodgers (24.8% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 3.5% | Caesars odds: +2800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 16
How they could stay around longer:Juan Soto goes off. Soto went into a funk not long after the monumental midseason trade that sent him to San Diego. While his overall San Diego numbers are down even from his subpar pre-trade numbers in Washington, Soto has quietly been trending up over the past couple of weeks. And let’s not forget that when the Nationals won the World Series in 2019, Soto’s huge postseason as a 20-year-old had a lot to do with it. All the hand-wringing over Soto’s post-trade play would be forgotten if he has a big October. — Doolittle
What could send them home soon: The Padres’ rotation, especially Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove, carried them into the playoffs down the stretch. That success needs to continue, but it wouldn’t have mattered had closer Josh Hader not straightened himself out. After a catastrophic start to his Padres career, Hader finished strong — making his midseason slump all the more bewildering. What happens if the bizarro Hader returns? San Diego will be done, that’s what will happen. Sure, you can say the same thing about every team that leans on a primary closer — but not every team saw its relief ace pitch like Hader did in August. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Padres struggled mightily against their Southern California rivals this season, losing 14 of 19 and getting outscored by a combined62 runs. To beat L.A., they’ll need to make sure Yu Darvish pitches as often as possible and Sean Manaea doesn’t pitch against the Dodgers at all. They’ll need Soto and Manny Machado to be at their best. They’ll need Hader to be the lockdown closer they thought they were getting at the start of August. And they’ll need contributions from several others. Most of all, perhaps, they’ll need to summon some confidence. — Gonzalez
NLDS opponent: Phillies (61.2% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 13.2% | Caesars odds: +600
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 24
How they could stay around longer: If the bullpen falls into place like it did last October, look out. The Braves’ are entering the playoffs with a more stable rotation outlook than a year ago, so Brian Snitker shouldn’t need to lean quite as heavily on his fireman as he did en route to the 2021 title. But even if he does, the Atlanta bullpen as a group has been smoking hot of late — led by trade acquisition Raisel Iglesias, who has allowed one earned run in 27 outings since he joined the Braves. Kenley Jansen has been very good, as have Collin McHugh, A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee. If Tyler Matzek can find last season’s consistency, there might not be a bad lever for Snitker to pull. — Doolittle
What could send them home early: A couple of lifeless cutters in the wrong situation by Jansen. This isn’t to pick on Jansen. He’s had an excellent first season in Atlanta. He leads the NL in saves and is on a pretty good roll entering the playoffs. But he still isn’t the shutdown hammer he was during his prime, and the Braves are such a complete team that there isn’t much else that might be a glaring issue. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Braves and Dodgers have met in back-to-back NLCS, splitting the two series, and they seem poised square off again. Outside of the Astros, the Braves might be the closest to matching the Dodgers’ depth and balance. Their separator could be in the bullpen. The three guys who entered this season as the Dodgers’ most important back-end relievers are either lost for the year (Daniel Hudson), pitching in low-leverage situations because of ineffectiveness (Craig Kimbrel) or recovering from injury (Blake Treinen). The Braves are as deep as ever in the back end of their bullpen, and this is a clear advantage for them. — Gonzalez
Why they are the team to beat in all of MLB: During the regular season, depth is what jumps to mind. L.A. has a roster and system of processes with so much quality redundancy built in that it’s hard to remember a time when we didn’t simply pencil the Dodgers in for a playoff spot before a season began. Depth isn’t irrelevant in the playoffs, but it’s clearly not as big a factor with the possible exception of the back of the bullpen. The thing is, the Dodgers aren’t just about depth. They are about all of the things, and a team with star power like this has a talent edge on everyone. And, oh yeah, they just won 111 games with the run differential that suggests they were actually a little unlucky. — Doolittle
What could send them home early: The term “Achilles’ heel” has become such a sports cliche. If the Dodgers falter, maybe we’ll have to update it to “L.A. closer.” Like in the NFL, you might say, “They have an airtight defense but their L.A. closer is the lack of a quality third corner.” The Dodgers have run roughshod over the majors all season and have such a depth of impact talent in the organization that it’s dizzying. And yet they enter the playoffs with an uncertain end-of-game situation because of the struggles of Craig Kimbrel. It’s hard to fathom. — Doolittle
Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: First, a tangible one: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman. The Dodgers’ dynamic top-of-the-lineup trio is what separates them from everyone, even the most elite. No team can boast the combination of bat-to-ball skills, power and baserunning that those three possess in abundance. –
Now, an intangible one: Revenge. Betts, Turner and Freeman were not with the Dodgers when they lost the 2017 World Series to an Astros team that was later found to have illegally stolen signs. But a few others — Clayton Kershaw, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger and Austin Barnes — were. And beating the Astros on this stage would qualify as the ultimate payback, no matter how much these rosters have changed over the last five years. — Gonzalez
Backed by a raucous crowd of 40,895 at Wrigley Field, Chicago used its stellar defense to advance in the postseason for the first time since 2017. Michael Busch hit a solo homer, and Jameson Taillon pitched four shutout innings before manager Craig Counsell used five relievers to close it out.
“This group’s battle-tested,” Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson said. “This group can grind it out. This group never backs down from and shies away from anything. This is such an amazing thing to be a part of.”
Next up for Chicago is a matchup with the NL Central champion Brewers in a compelling division series, beginning with Game 1 on Saturday in Milwaukee.
Counsell managed the Brewers for nine years before he was hired by the Cubs in November 2023, and he has been lustily booed in Milwaukee ever since he departed.
“It’s going to be a great atmosphere,” Counsell said. “It’s Cubs-Brewers. That’s going to be as good as it gets. It’s always a great atmosphere when the two teams play each other.”
It was another painful ending for San Diego after it made the postseason for the fourth time in six years but fell short of a pennant again. The Padres forced a decisive Game 3 with a 3-0 victory on Wednesday, but their biggest stars flopped in the series finale.
“There’s a lot of hurt guys in that clubhouse, but we left it all out on the field, and there’s no regrets on anybody’s part,” manager Mike Shildt said. “Just disappointed.”
Tatis went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, including a fly ball to right that stranded runners on second and third in the fifth. Machado, who hit a two-run homer in Game 2, bounced to shortstop Swanson for the final out of the eighth, leaving a runner at third.
“It’s not fun at all. We definitely missed an opportunity,” Tatis said.
Darvish also struggled against his former team. The Japanese right-hander was pulled after the first four Cubs batters reached in the second inning, capped by the first of Crow-Armstrong’s three hits.
Jeremiah Estrada came in and issued a bases-loaded walk to Swanson, handing the Cubs a 2-0 lead. Estrada limited the damage by striking out Matt Shaw before Busch bounced into an inning-ending double play.
Taillon allowed two hits and struck out four. Caleb Thielbar got two outs before Daniel Palencia wiggled out of a fifth-inning jam while earning his second win of the series. Drew Pomeranz managed the seventh before Keller worked the eighth.
The Cubs supported their bullpen with another solid day in the field. Swanson made a slick play on Luis Arraez‘s leadoff grounder in the sixth, and then turned an inning-ending double play following a walk to Machado.
Crow-Armstrong, who went 0-for-6 with five strikeouts in the first two games, robbed Machado of a hit with a sliding catch in center in the first.
“It’s just the next step for us,” Busch said. “You set out a goal before each and every year to do stuff like this, and you celebrate it, and it’s been fun to celebrate and continue to celebrate it tonight, but there’s a lot of work ahead.”
NEW YORK — Rookie right-hander Cam Schlittler struck out 12 in eight dominant innings and the New York Yankees beat the Boston Red Sox4-0 on Thursday night to win their AL Wild Card Series in a deciding third game.
Taking his place in Yankees-Red Sox rivalry lore, the 24-year-old Schlittler overpowered Boston with 100 mph heat in his 15th major league start and pitched New York into a best-of-five division series against American League East champion Toronto beginning Saturday.
“A star is born tonight. He’s a special kid, man,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “He is not afraid. He expects this.”
Amed Rosario and Anthony Volpe each had an RBI single in a four-run fourth as New York became the first team to lose the opener of a best-of-three wild-card series and come back to advance since Major League Baseball expanded the first round in 2022.
“It felt like the most pressure-packed game I’ve ever experienced — World Series, clinching games, whatever,” Boone said.
Schlittler, who debuted in the majors July 9, grew up a Red Sox fan in Walpole, Massachusetts — but has said several times he wanted to play for the Yankees. He had faced Boston only once before, as a freshman at Northeastern in a 2020 spring training exhibition.
Ex-Yankees great Andy Pettitte gave Schlittler one piece of advice Wednesday: Get a good night’s sleep.
“I woke up and I was locked in, so I knew exactly what I needed to do to go out there, especially against my hometown team,” Schlittler said.
He outpitched Connelly Early, a 23-year-old left-hander who debuted Sept. 9 and became Boston’s youngest postseason starting pitcher since 21-year-old Babe Ruth in 1916.
Schlittler struck out two more than any other Yankees pitcher had in his postseason debut, allowing just five singles and walking none. He threw 11 pitches 100 mph or faster — including six in the first inning, one more than all Yankees pitchers had combined for previously since pitch tracking started in 2008.
Schlittler threw 75 of 107 pitches for strikes, starting 22 of 29 batters with strikes and topping out at 100.8 mph. David Bednar worked around a leadoff walk in the ninth as the Red Sox failed to advance a runner past second base.
Bucky Dent threw out the ceremonial first pitch on the 47th anniversary of his go-ahead, three-run homer for New York at Fenway Park in an AL East tiebreaker game, and the Yankees went on to vanquish their longtime rivals the way they often used to.
New York, which arrived packed for a late-night flight to Toronto, won its second straight after losing eight of nine postseason meetings with Boston dating to 2004 and edged ahead 14-13 in postseason games between the teams. The Red Sox cost themselves in the fourth with a defense that committed a big league-high 116 errors during the regular season.
New York’s rally began when Cody Bellinger hit a soft fly into the triangle between center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, right fielder Wilyer Abreu and second baseman Romy González. The ball fell just in front of Rafaela, 234 feet from home plate, as Bellinger hustled into second with a double.
Giancarlo Stanton walked on a full count and with one out Rosario grounded a single into left, just past diving shortstop Trevor Story, to drive in Bellinger with the first run.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s single loaded the bases, and Volpe hit a grounder just past González, who had been shifted toward second, and into right for an RBI single and a 2-0 lead.
After a catcher’s interference call on Omar Narváez was overturned on a video review, Austin Wells hit a potential double-play grounder that first baseman Nathaniel Lowe tried to backhand on an in-between hop. The ball glanced off his glove and into shallow right field as two runs scored.
“We didn’t play defense,” Boston manager Alex Cora said. “They didn’t hit the ball hard, but they found holes and it happened fast.”
Yankees third baseman Ryan McMahon made the defensive play of the game when he caught Jarren Duran‘s eighth-inning foul pop and somersaulted into Boston’s dugout, then emerged smiling and apparently unhurt.
Count Xander Bogaerts among those looking forward to Major League Baseball’s new challenge system for balls and strikes next season.
The San Diego Padres shortstop just wishes it were in place a little earlier.
Bogaerts struck out looking on a pitch that appeared out of the strike zone during the ninth inning of the team’s 3-1 loss to the Cubs in Game 3 of the National League Wild Card Series on Thursday in Chicago.
The call came at a critical time.
The Cubs carried a 3-0 lead into the ninth inning, but Jackson Merrill led off with a home run off Brad Keller to cut San Diego’s deficit to 3-1 and bring Bogaerts to the plate. On a 3-2 count, Keller’s 97 mph fastball appeared to miss the zone low, causing Bogaerts to crouch down in disbelief at the call and Padres manager Mike Shildt to race out of the dugout.
Keller then hit Ryan O’Hearn and Bryce Johnson with pitches. Had Bogaerts walked, the Padres could have had the bases loaded with no outs. Instead, Andrew Kittredge came on with two runners on and one out and retired the next two batters, allowing the Cubs to advance to play the Milwaukee Brewers in the next round.
Bogaerts didn’t mince words after the game when asked about the apparent missed call by plate umpire D.J. Reyburn.
“Talk about it now: What do you want me to do?” Bogaerts said, according to The San Diego Union-Tribune. “It’s a ball. Messed up the whole game, you know? I mean, can’t go back in time, and talking about it now won’t change anything. So it was bad, and thank God for ABS next year because this is terrible.”
The automated ball-strike system will be implemented in the majors next season after years of testing in the minors as well as during spring training and at this year’s All-Star Game. The MLB competition committee voted last month to give teams two challenges per game using ABS if they believe a call by the plate umpire is wrong.
Thursday’s ending soured a 90-win season for San Diego, which made the playoffs for the fourth time in six seasons. It has not made it past the NL Championship Series during this recent run.
“We had a lot of fun,” Bogaerts said. “We competed with each other. We had guys that got injuries, a lot of guys stepped up. We traded for some really great people at the deadline. … It was fun until today.”