The key storylines for Alabama-Tennessee, Penn State-Michigan and the rest of Week 7’s biggest games
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ESPN staff
Coming into the college football season, a lot of focus was put on the Week 6 slate. Jimbo Fisher against Nick Saban after an offseason of chatter and the new age of the Red River rivalry ahead of an SEC move highlighted what was supposed to be the week that made contenders and pretenders.
We were just off a week, it turns out.
Week 7 brings all the fireworks we were ready for last week as Alabama heads to Tennessee in a top-six SEC showdown that could very well be the conference championship game, while Kentucky and Mississippi State try to keep up with the current front-runners in another top-25 matchup. The Big Ten has a top-10 battle of its own this week with Penn State traveling to Michigan in what could be a College Football Playoff-defining game.
No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Set aside the unknown of Bryce Young‘s health and how it will impact Alabama’s offense on Saturday afternoon. We saw against Texas A&M last weekend that Young’s backup, Jalen Milroe, might not be ready to go into Tennessee and come away with a victory.
Instead, look to the battle of Tennessee’s offense vs. Alabama’s defense as the key factor in this clash of unbeaten teams.
The Vols’ offense is first among FBS teams in score rate, yards per game and points per game.
“They’re probably one of the most explosive offenses, if not the most explosive offense, in the country,” Saban said.
But the Crimson Tide’s defense is no slouch. It ranks in the top 10 in opposing score rate, yards per game and points per game.
Something has to give. And that something will likely be determined by Alabama’s ability to put pressure on Tennessee star quarterback Hendon Hooker, who has four talented receivers at his disposal with Jalin Hyatt, Bru McCoy, Cedric Tillman and Ramel Keyton — all of whom have more than 200 yards receiving this season.
In the past, Alabama has struggled against teams that go up-tempo, and Tennessee is the fifth-quickest team in the country in terms of time of possession per play (21.3 seconds). The Vols have allowed the second-lowest pressure rate in the country (16.1%), which looks at any time the quarterback is sacked, under duress or hit.
In other words: Getting a hand on Hooker won’t be easy.
But Alabama has generated the sixth-highest pressure rate in the country (37.0%) for a reason. Just look at the Texas A&M game, in which the Tide debuted their so-called “Cheetah package” that featured speedy edge rushers Will Anderson Jr., Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell on the field at the same time. Saban said simply, “It was effective.” No kidding. The defense racked up 28 total pressures against the Aggies. Anderson had a season-high 12 on his own.
“Between their personnel being good enough to win a lot of one-on-one matchups and then all their pressures and all their games up front, you gotta do a really good job,” Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said of his offensive line. “You have to win the one-on-one matchups and then you gotta do a great job working together as all five guys.” — Alex Scarborough
No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (Saturday, noon ET, Fox)
The last time Michigan and Penn State met at Michigan Stadium, they played in a virtually empty building because of COVID-19 restrictions. Penn State was 0-5 for the first time in team history. Michigan wasn’t much better at 2-3.
The teams are much better, and the stakes are much higher Saturday. Both teams are undefeated and in the top 10. Saturday’s winner will be labeled the primary challenger to Big Ten favorite Ohio State, and a bona fide College Football Playoff candidate. Michigan is defending its league title, but Penn State hasn’t been in this position since an 8-0 start in 2019.
“We know that these types of games every year are critical,” Penn State coach James Franklin said.
Penn State’s fortunes could hinge on an emerging run game and a pressure-heavy defense under first-year coordinator Manny Diaz. A Lions offense that hasn’t averaged more than 200 rush yards per game since 2018 has averaged 216.3 rush yards over the past four games with 14 touchdowns. Freshmen Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton are combining to average 153.2 rush yards per game.
They face a Michigan defense that, despite the NFL draft losses of star pass-rushers Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, ranks seventh nationally in rush yards allowed per game (81.7) and sixth in yards per rush (2.62). Penn State’s run game could take some pressure off senior quarterback Sean Clifford, whose numbers to date mirror those of past seasons.
“It’s about execution, but it’s also about keeping people on their toes,” Franklin said. “If you can run in predictable passing situations and be efficient and effective, that’s what you want to do, and vice versa.”
Michigan also wants to broaden its offense as sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy makes his sixth career start and first against a ranked opponent. McCarthy’s athletic ability and overall skill set give Michigan a chance to open up the offense in ways it truly hasn’t under coach Jim Harbaugh. But McCarthy has operated a mostly conservative scheme, showing accuracy on high-percentage routes while struggling on deeper ones.
McCarthy’s decision-making and execution will be tested by Diaz’s defense, which has pressured quarterbacks 85 times on dropbacks, more than all but five FBS teams.
“When you look at what we have as a group and who we’re coached by, and you look at what we’re doing on the field, it’s just not matching up with our potential and where we should be, and where we’re going to be,” McCarthy said. “We should not be getting stopped offensively.” — Adam Rittenberg
No. 4 Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN app)
The Clemson-Florida State matchup used to be the can’t-miss game in the ACC, but it has turned into a relative afterthought over the past five years.
Perhaps the Seminoles can change that Saturday.
Though it has lost its past two games, Florida State (4-2) is in position to challenge the No. 4 Tigers (6-0) based on the improvements the team has made across the board. Much of that starts on offense, where Florida State has one of the best rushing attacks in the country.
Florida State has 32 explosive run plays this year on offense, 12th most in FBS and tops in the ACC. Clemson, on the other hand, has allowed just four explosive run plays — best in the nation. What’s more, Clemson is expected to have its top five defensive linemen — Bryan Bresee, Tyler Davis, Xavier Thomas, K.J. Henry and Myles Murphy — available to play for the first time this season on Saturday.
On the other side, the status of Florida State leading rusher Treshaun Ward remains unclear after he sustained an injury last week against NC State and was seen with a sling on his arm on the sideline. Florida State coach Mike Norvell said the injury wouldn’t require surgery but has not given a timetable for his return. If Ward cannot play, Trey Benson and Lawrance Toafili will carry the load.
That matchup is one of the most intriguing to watch in this game — especially if Florida State has any shot at breaking a six-game losing streak to the Tigers. The results have been ugly over that stretch, though the Seminoles had their opportunities in a 30-20 loss last year, a game in which they led 20-17 midway through the fourth quarter.
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said during his news conference this week he “wanted to vomit” watching the game tape from last year, then noted how much better the Tigers are this year — most especially with an improved DJ Uiagalelei and better offensive line.
“Grading our tape this year versus last year is night and day in every area,” Swinney said.
Clemson is now the overwhelming favorite to win the Atlantic Division, while Florida State is just hoping to avoid a third straight loss after starting the season 4-0. Of course, this is also the third straight AP-ranked opponent the Seminoles will face, the only team in the ACC scheduled to play Wake Forest, NC State and Clemson in a row.
“I love this team. I love the mindset of what they bring,” Norvell said. “Nobody wants to have a disappointing outcome in any game or in any play, but how you choose to respond to things is really what’s indicative of the character that you have and the identity of what you are going to put out. These guys continue to work, they continue to believe. We’ve got to have a great week of prep to capitalize on what’s coming here Saturday night.” — Andrea Adelson
No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 22 Kentucky Wildcats (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network/ESPN app)
The two “Wills” were always going to dominate the buildup to this football game — Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers and Kentucky quarterback Will Levis.
But there’s a bit of a twist.
Levis has generated much of the buzz this season from pro scouts and is widely regarded as one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2023 NFL draft. He’s also not healthy and is battling a turf toe injury that kept him out of the South Carolina game a week ago, a 24-14 home loss that saw the Wildcats average just 4.7 yards per play and go 3-of-12 on third down with redshirt freshman Kaiya Sheron making his first career start at quarterback.
The Wildcats (4-2) are hopeful that Levis can return for this game, although it could still be a game-time decision. Whoever is at quarterback, the Wildcats have to find a way to protect him better if they’re going to avoid their third straight loss. They’ve allowed 25 sacks in six games, which ranks them 129th nationally out of 131 teams in sacks allowed. Zach Arnett’s 3-3-5 defense at Mississippi State has feasted on forcing turnovers (12 in six games) and has allowed just 16 touchdowns in six games. Two of those TDs came in the fourth quarter of blowouts.
The Bulldogs (5-1) have been a more balanced team all the way around this season, be it running the ball more consistently on offense or playing the kind of defense that’s going to keep them in every game.
But the centerpiece remains Rogers, who is the only quarterback in the country with more than 2,000 passing yards (2,110) and more than 20 passing touchdowns (22). If he ever was truly underrated, he’s not now. The 6-2, 210-pound junior, who still has two years of eligibility remaining, has established himself as one of the most productive quarterbacks in college football. He passed Georgia‘s Aaron Murray last week as the SEC’s all-time completions leader. Rogers did it in only 28 games. Murray set the mark over a span of 52 games.
“He’s a guy that elevates even the other sides of the ball,” Mississippi State coach Mike Leach said of his quarterback.
Rogers has been masterful at spreading the ball around this season. Six different Mississippi State receivers have caught at least 20 passes. No other SEC school has more than three (Georgia).
Kentucky has had trouble scoring against SEC foes. The Wildcats have yet to score more than 19 points on offense in their first three conference games, which becomes even more of a problem depending on Levis’ health.
On the flip side, few teams in college football have been better at scoring in the red zone than Mississippi State, which leads the nation with 19 touchdowns in 21 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
The last thing the Wildcats want is to get into a scoring match with the Bulldogs, who are 12-0 under Leach when they score at least 30 points. — Chris Low
No. 15 NC State Wolfpack at No. 18 Syracuse Orange (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network/ESPN app)
When NC State hosted Syracuse a year ago, the defensive game plan for QB Garrett Shrader was simple enough: Make him throw the ball.
Shrader had proved an exceptional runner in 2021, and indeed, he carried 17 times for 70 yards and a score in last year’s 41-17 loss to the Wolfpack. But throwing the ball was misery. Shrader completed just 8 of 20 throws for a measly 63 yards, plus an interception for good measure. The passing game was Syracuse’s kryptonite. For the year, Shrader completed just 52.6% of his throws.
Enter Robert Anae. The new offensive coordinator for the Orange has refined the passing game and worked wonders.
“Everyone thinks Syracuse can just run the ball, and that’s it,” receiver Oronde Gadsden II said. “We wanted to develop a passing game so that when they’re running Cover 1, Cover Zero, we’ve got some dudes out there that can beat man and get open and score touchdowns.”
Syracuse can certainly run the ball. Shrader’s mobility is a weapon, but so, too, is tailback Sean Tucker, who was an All-American last season. But now there’s a genuine alternative when teams stack the box, and Shrader has proved he can find receivers downfield.
So far this season, he’s completing 71% of his throws with 10 passing TDs and just one pick. He trails only North Carolina‘s Drake Maye in passer rating among ACC QBs.
“Last year, I thought he struggled throwing the football,” NC State coach Dave Doeren said. “Now he has a 70% completion rate and is playing really well.”
Shrader is one of just four QBs in the country with 1,200 passing yards, 200 rushing yards, 10 passing touchdowns and five rushing. Add in a completion percentage of more than 70%, and the only other QBs to match those marks through five games in the playoff era are Brock Purdy, Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts.
Doeren said the priority remains containing Shrader in the pocket — something NC State struggled to do against another mobile QB, Florida State’s Jordan Travis, just last week. Travis ran for 108 yards in the 19-17 NC State win, a week after Clemson’s DJ Uiagalelei ran for 70 against the Wolfpack. NC State has allowed just 745 rushing yards (not counting sacks) this season, which ranks among the best marks in the ACC. But 358 of those yards (48%) have come from QBs. And the fact that the Wolfpack must now respect Syracuse’s passing game opens up even more avenues to run.
“It’s 11-man football in the run game, and sometimes the run is just created in a pass where a guy jumps back and takes off,” Doeren said. “We have to do a great job with their quarterback and not allowing him to get out.” — David Hale
No. 7 USC Trojans at No. 20 Utah Utes (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox)
When asked earlier this week what it would take to duplicate USC’s undefeated first half over the next six games, coach Lincoln Riley said with a smile: “Just six?” alluding to wanting to play for not just the conference title but perhaps a playoff game, too. “That’ll get quoted, oh boy. Everybody calm down.”
The unprecedented run to an undefeated season, though, gets tougher for the Trojans this week. Few places have given USC as much trouble as traveling to Salt Lake City in the past decade. Before the Trojans beat the Utes in a fan-less Rice-Eccles Stadium during the COVID-shortened season in 2020, USC hadn’t won there since 2012.
This weekend’s matchup lost some of its luster after UCLA beat Utah at the Rose Bowl, but the importance of this game — for both teams — has not been diminished.
Though Utah has not met preseason expectations, Kyle Whittingham’s team is stronger at home, and the expectation is that the Utes will bounce back from Saturday’s loss, especially after an uncharacteristic two-turnover day from quarterback Cameron Rising.
Earlier this week, Riley waxed poetic about Rising, whom he recruited out of high school. And by all accounts, Rising might be the best quarterback USC’s turnover-happy defense has faced so far.
For the Utes, dropping a third game (second in conference) would mean that the road back to the Pac-12 championship would require not just winning out, but hoping one of the L.A. teams and Oregon falter. For the Trojans, a win would not only keep their undefeated record intact heading into an easier stretch (and a bye week), but it would also create a simple path toward the title game: Beat UCLA.
“This is when it gets the most fun,” Riley said. “You put yourself in a great position, now it’s time to go accelerate and be our best.” — Paolo Uggetti
After four weeks of the season, we might have an idea about the true College Football Playoff contenders in each conference.
While a few of the top teams in the SEC and the Big Ten were off in Week 4, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Indiana Hoosiers, Oklahoma Sooners and Miami Hurricanes got the spotlight.
A surprise team in the 2024 CFP, Indiana put up big numbers on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Fernando Mendoza threw five TD passes in the 63-10 win. The Hoosiers still have the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions on the schedule, but Indiana passed a conference test in hopes of landing another playoff bid.
The Sooners are trying to jump into the SEC playoff picture in their second season in the league. Oklahoma opened conference play by rocking former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Auburn Tigers. OU sacked Arnold 10 times in its 24-17 win.
Miami, one of only two AP top-five teams in action this week, got a test from the 1-3 Florida Gators before closing out a 26-7 win. The Canes’ defense held the Gators to 32 yards in the first half and kept DJ Lagway under 100 yards passing.
Here are our experts’ top 12 College Football Playoff picks:
Andrea Adelson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. LSU 4. Oklahoma 5. Georgia 6. Oregon 7. Florida State 8. Texas A&M 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. TCU 12. Memphis
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Miami 7. Florida State 8. Indiana 9. Oklahoma 10. Texas 11. Texas Tech 12. South Florida
Bill Connelly: 1. Oregon 2. Ohio State 3. Ole Miss 4. Texas A&M 5. Penn State 6. Miami 7. Georgia 8. Texas Tech 9. LSU 10. Florida State 11. Indiana 12. Memphis
David Hale: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Oregon 4. Georgia 5. Oklahoma 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Texas 9. Indiana 10. Florida State 11. Texas Tech 12. Memphis
Max Olson: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Miami 4. Georgia 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Indiana 11. Texas 12. South Florida
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Ohio State 2. Georgia 3. Miami 4. Oregon 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Indiana 10. Texas Tech 11. Texas A&M 12. South Florida
Mark Schlabach: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. LSU 5. Oregon 6. Penn State 7. Florida State 8. Oklahoma 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Jake Trotter: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Miami 5. Penn State 6. LSU 7. Oklahoma 8. Indiana 9. Texas Tech 10. Florida State 11. Texas A&M 12. Memphis
Dave Wilson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Is the U back?!
It’s been a minute.
With Miami’s win against rival Florida on Saturday night, the U — winners of five titles between 1983 and 2001 — made a case to be the top team in the country once again.
This is a program that hasn’t won an ACC title since joining the league in 2004, and now the Canes have positioned themselves as not only the top playoff contender in the conference, but also as the top team in the country. It’s still early, but statement wins are hard to come by, and Miami’s résumé now includes wins against Notre Dame, a ranked South Florida and rival Florida.
The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to date, Miami is one of the few teams that has looked like the total package.
The list below is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: With wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and now rival Florida, Miami has the best combination of eye test and résumé. It didn’t come easy against the Gators, but Miami’s defense was stifling for the bulk of the game. The selection committee considers the intangibles that accompany a rivalry game and would acknowledge the difficulty of the win, even though Florida is struggling this year. As talented as Ohio State is, Miami now has a stronger case, given the Buckeyes’ best win was against a Texas team that has since fallen out of the projected top 12. Miami has cemented itself as the ACC’s top playoff contender — at least until it’s decided on the field on Oct. 4 against Florida State.
Why they could be lower: If the committee were to rank Ohio State No. 1 at this point, it would simply be because some members think the Buckeyes are more talented.
Need to know: Miami has the best chance of any Power 4 team in the country to win out (19.3%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 66.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee doesn’t typically move teams if they don’t play, unless there is movement around them — and Miami’s résumé bumped the Canes to the top spot this week. Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas is still one of the best nonconference wins of the season, but that’s all the Buckeyes have at the moment. A win against Ohio and a 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling won’t impress the committee. A win against Texas will, but how much the committee values it on Selection Day depends on how the Longhorns fare all season.
Why they could be higher: If the committee has the Buckeyes at No. 1, it’s going to be by a paper-thin margin. Statistically, Ohio State and Miami entered the week almost dead even in all three phases of the game.
Need to know: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State entered this week tied with Georgia and Oregon for the best chance in the country to reach the CFP (77%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The 44-41 overtime win against Tennessee in Week 3 gave the Bulldogs their first statement win against a ranked opponent, and the committee will note that it was on the road. It helped slightly this week that Tennessee showed no signs of a letdown in a lopsided win against overmatched UAB.
Why they could be lower: The win against the Vols might not be enough. Georgia’s other wins are against Marshall and FCS Austin Peay.
Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win each of its remaining games, which would put the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game. What happens, though, if they lose to Alabama on Saturday? There’s still plenty of time — and opportunity — to impress the committee with wins against opponents such as Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. It’s possible that Georgia could have a win over the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have an extra week to prepare for it, but the Tide have shown continuous improvement since their season-opening loss to Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 55% chance to win. Even with a loss, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Georgia a 65.2% chance to reach the playoff, independent of other results.
Why they could be here: Florida State has been dominant, ranking No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric. The Noles also entered this week ranked No. 3 in strength of record. The Seminoles are passing the eye test but still need to beef up their résumé beyond a season-opening win against Alabama. The Tide were off this week but have played well against each of their past two unranked opponents, continuing to make Florida State’s win valuable in the committee meeting room. The Seminoles, though, won’t have another chance to impress the group against a ranked opponent until Oct. 4 against Miami.
Why they could be lower: FSU’s statistics are a bit skewed by the Noles’ 77-3 drubbing of FCS team East Texas A&M.
Need to know: Georgia Tech doesn’t face Florida State or Miami during the regular season but could play one of them in the ACC title game. That makes the regular-season rivalry game between the Noles and Canes critical to the ACC race. Entering Week 4, Miami (68%) and Georgia Tech (39.3%) had the best chances to reach the ACC championship game, followed by Florida State (24.1%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 66.1% chance to win. November games at Clemson and Florida no longer look as daunting.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ two best wins — against Clemson and Florida — are now against unranked teams with losing records. Florida State has looked better offensively, and its win against Alabama is better than LSU’s wins. The Tigers’ defense, though, has been something the committee members would notice. LSU hasn’t allowed any opponent more than 10 points this season and is fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.
Why they could be lower: Some questions remain about the offensive line, which features four new starters and hasn’t always given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier the time he needs. Nussmeier entered Saturday averaging 5.88 air yards per pass attempt, and the Tigers are still searching for more explosive plays. LSU’s 17 explosive plays entering Saturday were the fewest in the SEC. LSU is No. 62 in the country in offensive efficiency. The selection committee looks for teams that are in the top 10 in both offense and defense.
Need to know: LSU has a chance to enhance its résumé on Saturday at Ole Miss, where a win would be its most impressive to date and provide some cushion for a tough upcoming stretch. LSU’s schedule is No. 9 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M had a bye this week after earning one of the best nonconference wins in the country last week at Notre Dame. The Aggies saw their playoff chances increase by 26% following that win. Texas A&M entered this week with a 47% chance to make the playoff. Still, the Aggies are clinging to one win to boost their entire résumé right now, as the rest of their schedule includes UTSA and Utah State.
Why they could be higher: Texas A&M entered this week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of metric record, which means the average top-25 opponent would have a 37% chance of achieving the same 3-0 record against the same opponents. Some committee members would view the Aggies’ win at Notre Dame as more impressive than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M had to win on the road.
Need to know: If Texas A&M doesn’t win the SEC, and it finishes as a 10-2 team — and Notre Dame runs the table and also finishes 10-2 — the selection committee would use the head-to-head result as one of its tiebreakers and give the Aggies the edge. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives Texas A&M less than a 50% chance to beat LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 51.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Wins against Michigan and Auburn have legitimized the Sooners’ playoff hopes, giving them two quality wins against what could be CFP top 25 opponents. The win against the Wolverines helps separate OU from other contenders with weaker nonconference wins, and it looks even better after the Wolverines beat Nebraska on the road. The selection committee also appreciates star power, and the Sooners have it with quarterback John Mateer, who has a passing and rushing touchdown in 10 straight games.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has been the story early, but the defense and its 10 sacks were the highlight in the win against Auburn, giving the committee a complete team to consider. The wins against Michigan and Auburn might also outweigh the Aggies’ lone win at Notre Dame, though it was on the road and OU won both of its big games at home. The committee would debate if two good wins outweigh one great one — an argument that could also be made with regard to Florida State and its win over Alabama.
Need to know: The Sooners have the fourth-toughest schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics, so the undefeated start provides a critical cushion for a backloaded schedule that could include as many as six ranked opponents in the final seven games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 64.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Ducks continue to dismantle weaker competition, including their winless in-state rival Oregon State (0-4) on Saturday. Oregon’s place in the playoff order has nothing to do with résumé and everything to do with dominant wins. The Ducks entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric, No. 3 in points margin and No. 2 in the country with 54 points per game. Oregon is No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency, making the Ducks one of the most complete teams in the country.
Why they could be lower: Montana State is an FCS team. Oklahoma State’s program has imploded. And a win against Northwestern amounts to a shoulder shrug. The stats are inflated because of the opponents the Ducks beat.
Need to know: Oregon has the best chance in the Big Ten to make the conference championship game (55.1%) and win it (34%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 52% chance to win — it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week, and wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping them behind contenders with better résumés. Penn State entered Week 4 ranked No. 41 in ESPN’s strength of record metric — and every team listed above is ranked in the top 20.
Why they could be lower: Penn State ranks No. 71 in the country in offensive efficiency — well below what’s typical of past playoff participants. No wins against Power 4 opponents would also hold the Nittany Lions back. Quarterback Drew Allar entered the week ranked No. 111 in QBR (38.4) and has just four touchdowns and one interception.
Need to know: Penn State hosts Oregon on Saturday in a game that will finally reveal how seriously to take the Nittany Lions. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State a 52% chance to win. If it doesn’t, it will likely need to beat Ohio State on the road to get a chance at the Big Ten title game — and possibly a rematch with Oregon. Without a win against the Ducks OR Ohio State — and with no Big Ten title game appearance — Penn State’s best chance for a notable win would be against Indiana on Nov. 8. A 10-2 Notre Dame would arguably have a better résumé with the same record.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee considers how teams win — and how they lose — and the Vols have managed to do both as well as can be expected. The committee isn’t going to penalize Tennessee for its 44-41 overtime loss to Georgia, though it will keep the Vols behind the Dawgs as long as their records are comparable. And the season-opening win against Syracuse looks even better after the Orange won at Clemson on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Vols are still missing a true statement win, though Syracuse can be a CFP Top 25 team on Selection Day.
Need to know: The Vols’ chances of reaching the SEC title game are slim, according to ESPN Analytics, which gives Tennessee just an 8.1% chance to reach the game and a 4.4% chance to win the title. Tennessee earned a spot in the playoff last year, though, as an at-large team, and can do that again, but it can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 66.3% chance to win. It’s the only game on the schedule the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers have a convincing win against a veteran Illinois team that last week was in this spot. They had dominated their previous two opponents (Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State), but this was the first chance to show the committee a complete performance against a ranked Big Ten opponent. The Illini had won each of their first three games by at least 25 points. The committee would also highlight the strong play of IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes. He continued that success against an Illinois defense that had allowed only two passing touchdowns in three games.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could be more impressed with Ole Miss, which entered this week ranked No. 6 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric. They could also consider a bigger boost for Texas Tech, which won on the road, whereas the Hoosiers won at home. The committee would also consider the injury to Texas Tech’s starting quarterback.
Need to know: If the Hoosiers are a playoff team for the second straight season, they will have earned it with a more difficult schedule this year, as they still have to face Oregon and Penn State — both on the road. If IU doesn’t win the Big Ten title, it probably needs to at least split with those opponents to win a debate with another contender for an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks an 82.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The win at Utah is better than anything Texas has on its résumé — and the Red Raiders got it done with their backup quarterback. With the win, Texas Tech’s chances of reaching the Big 12 title game jumped to 40%, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech is also getting credit here for beating Oregon State in the same way Oregon did (the Red Raiders beat the Beavers 45-14 a week before the Ducks upended them 41-7 on Saturday). Beating a respectable Utah team, though, in the first Big 12 game for both teams helped Texas Tech enter the playoff conversation as the league’s new leading contender.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has had three straight wins against respectable opponents, including back-to-back wins against SEC opponents Kentucky and Arkansas earlier this month. The Rebels also have a case for moving into the committee’s top 12.
Need to know: If Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12, it could have trouble earning an at-large bid because it might not play another ranked opponent this season. It’s hard to imagine the committee leaving out a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, though. If the Red Raiders were to lose a close game to a ranked opponent in the league title game, they would still have a strong case for an at-large bid. If they finish as a two-loss runner-up, though, they could lose a debate for an at-large bid with another contender with a better résumé.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at BYU. ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 51.4% chance to win. It’s the only remaining game the Red Raiders aren’t favored to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Penn State
AUSTIN, Texas — Arch Manning passed for 309 yards and three touchdowns in his sharpest game of the season so far as No. 8 Texas cruised to a 55-0 win over Sam Houston on Saturday night.
Manning was 18-of-21 passing and also ran for two first-half touchdowns. He connected with Ryan Wingo for touchdowns of 53 and 13 yards in the third quarter before leaving the game with Texas (3-1) leading 45-0.
“It felt good,” Manning said. “I wish I could have done that the last [three] weeks. But I’m glad we did it tonight … Got the ball in my guys’ hands and let them go to work.”
Manning needed a confidence-builder after a poor start to the season and got one against the overmatched Bearkats (0-4). His passes looked crisp and decisive, and after his first touchdown run of the game, he stood and flexed over a defender before a game official broke them up.
His Texas teammates were glad to see it.
“He got his swagger back,” Texas senior safety Michael Taaffe said. “Everybody knew that it was in there. What he showed tonight is what we expect.”
Manning said he worried he’d get a taunting penalty, and that he quickly apologized to the game official.
“Probably a little much there. My mom was pretty mad about it,” Manning said. “I think it was some built-up frustration for the past few weeks.”
Manning had come into the game completing just 55% of his passes. The preseason betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy had promised several times during the week that he would start playing better. At one point Saturday night, Manning completed 14 passes in a row.
“When he plays a little looser and he’s free, that’s the best version of Arch,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “He got going and started throwing the ball. Started using his legs. You could feel the bounce in his step on the field.”
Manning said he won’t concern himself with the national chatter about him this week, or the critics who dismissed him after the first few games.
“I’m not really worried about what anyone thinks of the narratives. I’m just trying to play ball, get wins. That’s most important, especially going into SEC play. Right?” he said.
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