San Diego’s deadline decisions finally pay off big with NLDS win
SAN DIEGO — The players came together to form a haphazard circle in the middle of the San Diego Padres‘ clubhouse, at times bouncing to hip-hop and spraying champagne in unison. Peter Seidler, the owner, stood off to the side, close enough to witness the madness but far enough to be spared from it. Ten years ago, Seidler, the grandson of celebrated Los Angeles Dodgers owner Walter O’Malley, purchased this franchise with outsized expectations: the goal of the Padres taking over both their city and their division.
Saturday night — punctuated by the 5-3 victory that eliminated the mighty Dodgers in Game 4 of the National League Division Series — represented the manifestation of that vision.
All they had to do to make it happen was risk everything.
Seidler pointed to Manny Machado, by that point shirtless and drenched in alcohol.
“He was the big chip,” Seidler said. “And now it’s a place where all players wanna play.”
In February 2019, the Padres signed Machado to a $300 million contract that shocked the industry and forever changed the perception of their franchise. As the Padres’ offense languished through most of this past summer, it was Machado who kept them afloat, playing almost daily and producing like an MVP. His performance helped lead them back into the postseason, and once they got there, it was their two boldest trade additions who lifted them.
Juan Soto, quite possibly the biggest midseason acquisition in baseball history, produced the game-tying hit and later came around to score in the five-run seventh inning that produced an epic comeback.
Josh Hader, who had arrived in another blockbuster trade two days earlier, closed it out in the ninth, sending the Padres into the NL Championship Series for the first time since 1998.
“They’re phenomenal players,” Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said. “That’s why we made the trades, honestly. It’s pretty simple — they’re the best at what they do in the world. If you’re gonna beat a team like that, you need guys that are the best in the game.”
No man embodies the boldness of these Padres better than Preller, widely regarded as the most hyper-aggressive executive in the sport, for better or worse. When he first joined the Padres in 2014, Preller went all-in with expensive veteran players. It didn’t work, he sold off pieces, quickly rebuilt the farm system — and used those assets to go for it again.
The Machado contract was followed by a flurry of trades that outfitted the starting rotation with names such as Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger, Joe Musgrove and Sean Manaea. The team was expected to compete with the Dodgers in 2021, and for a while, it did. A second-half collapse saw them miss the playoffs entirely but paved the way for the hiring of Bob Melvin, one of the most revered managers in the sport. Finally, a subpar start to the 2022 season led to the moves that ultimately pushed the Padres over the top.
Last year’s collapse was centered on activity around the trade deadline, when, among other things, Preller spoke to Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo about the possibility of combining Max Scherzer and Trea Turner in a package, then watched that package go to the Dodgers. The Padres did not do much else, and faded shortly thereafter. This year, Preller was determined not to miss out again. On July 31, he sent his closer, Taylor Rogers, and three others to the Milwaukee Brewers for Hader, then shipped all of his best young players — Robert Hassell, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore, among others — to the Nationals for Soto and the power-hitting Josh Bell on Aug. 2.
It took two months for those moves to truly pan out.
After arriving in San Diego, Hader struggled so badly that he was removed as the closer, only to find his form near the end of the regular season. So far, he has displayed his customary dominance in October. Soto lacked his prototypical power for most of August and September but is now a major threat once again.
“With Juan, it’s not a matter of if he’s gonna get going — it’s a matter of when,” Preller said. “He got some huge hits in this series, huge hits tonight. He’s that guy.”
Soto, the 23-year-old outfielder who has already drawn comparisons to Ted Williams, had a .388 on-base percentage in 52 regular-season games with the Padres but slugged only .390, 43 points below this year’s major league average. Then he compiled four hits in Games 2 and 3 of the Padres’ wild-card series against the New York Mets. And though his NLDS numbers (3-for-16) didn’t jump out, he produced eight batted balls that exceeded 100 mph, which doesn’t include his 95 mph single in Saturday’s seventh inning.
“It was a really important moment, a tight moment, and I just wanted to come through for this team,” Soto said in Spanish. “I’m trying to give them everything I have and see how far we can take this.”
As much as Soto settling in ahead of Machado changes the outlook of the Padres’ lineup, Hader dominating the ninth inning changes the dynamic of their bullpen.
Hader, a four-time All-Star, gave up 22 runs in a nine-inning stretch from July 13 to Aug. 28, an unimaginable slump for one of the sport’s most dominant relievers. Toward the tail end of that stretch, the Padres demoted Hader to low-leverage work. But then he started to get right again. The bad mechanical habits he picked up near the end of his stint with the Brewers were eventually corrected. And down the stretch, while other relievers emerged, he allowed just one unearned run and five baserunners over his last 10 appearances of the regular season. So far, he’s pitched 4 1/3 scoreless innings in the playoffs.
“This is the worst down I’ve ever had, but you can’t give up,” Hader said. “You can’t just roll over and be like, ‘Oh well, this is the way it is.’ You can’t do that. We play this game way too hard, we play it way too much to just give up. It made me a better player, knowing that mentally, if you can go through that s—, you can go through anything. You just have to continue to trust what you do.”
Saturday night was a culmination for Seidler, who famously called the Dodgers “the dragon up the freeway that we’re trying to slay.” His franchise has slayed the dragon — on the strength of the stars who were brought in and in front of the fans who had rallied around them.
Petco Park normally attracts so many Dodgers fans that it is unofficially named “Dodger Stadium South.” But that was different on Friday and Saturday. The team geo-restricted the primary ticket market to maximize the number of Padres fans in attendance, limiting sales to people residing in the San Diego area and creating an unprecedented energy at Petco Park. Bright yellow towels decorated the ballpark; “Beat L.A.” chants filled the air; fake geese dotted the stands. Rain started to come down hard in the late innings, but nobody left.
Seidler was asked whether he could have ever imagined this type of energy in this city.
“No,” he said. “I could dream all kinds of things, but this, what happened yesterday and today, was remarkable.
“Every single fan I think is still in the building, and it’s been half an hour after we won. And they’re wet and they’re cold, but they love this group of players, and the players love the fans.”
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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