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Well, excuse the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies for crashing the party.

The 101-win Mets, with a rotation featuring Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom and their most wins in a regular season since 1986? Gone from these MLB playoffs.

The 101-win Braves, trying to defend their World Series championship with a better, deeper team than last season? Gone in a blitz of Phillies power.

The all-powerful, almighty Dodgers, winners of 111 games, the most in the National League since 1906? Gone in a blitz of blistering Padres fastballs.

The first season with six playoff teams in the National League proved to be as chaotic as a system like this can allow it to be. Maybe you love it. Maybe you loathe it. (Dodgers fans definitely loathe it.) Padres and Phillies fans will take it, though, as their teams meet in the most improbable matchup in National League Championship Series history. That’s not an exaggeration — this is the first NLCS between two teams with fewer than 90 wins. But it’s not lacking in star power, not with Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola and Manny Machado and Juan Soto.

Also of note: The condensed playoff schedule means the best-of-seven series will be played over eight days rather than the usual nine, with an off day after only Game 2. That will put a little added pressure on the pitching staffs and perhaps force the managers to dig a little deeper than usual into their starting rotations.

Ahead of Game 1, David Schoenfield takes a look at each team and our ESPN experts make their picks.

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Phillies | Padres | Our picks


Why they can move on: Their offense took it to the Braves, scoring seven, nine and eight runs in their three victories. In a postseason where generating offense has been difficult to impossible, the Phillies have put together big innings: six runs in the ninth inning to pull out Game 1 of the wild-card series against the St. Louis Cardinals and six runs in the third inning of Game 3 of the division series against the Braves, plus three other three-run innings. Of their six home runs, three have come with runners on base, including three-run homers from Rhys Hoskins and Brandon Marsh against Atlanta. Keep hitting those and you might see more bat slams.

Why they might not: The bullpen is still a work in progress for manager Rob Thomson. Zach Eflin, who didn’t start relieving until September and picked up his first career save late in the season, had first crack at ninth-inning duties and allowed seven hits and four runs in three innings. Luckily, the Phillies’ leads were big enough that it didn’t matter, and he did close out a 2-0 victory over the Cardinals cleanly. But in the clinching game against the Braves, Eflin was the setup guy to Seranthony Dominguez. Meanwhile, Jose Alvarado, who allowed just two home runs in the regular season, has served up two in the postseason.

Who’s hot: In 35 games after returning from the injured list in late August, Bryce Harper hit just .227/.335/.352 with three home runs. But he has three home runs and three doubles in six playoff games, including two blasts of more than 400 feet. A locked-in Harper is a beautiful sight for Phillies fans.

Who’s not: Kyle Schwarber, who led the NL with 46 home runs, is 1-for-20 with eight strikeouts in the postseason, and two of his three walks have been intentional.

How’s the defense? Still bad. Nick Castellanos made a diving catch in right field in the bottom of the ninth to help preserve a 7-6 victory in Game 1 against the Braves, but he and Schwarber remain big liabilities in the outfield corners — Castellanos is in the second percentile in Statcast’s outs above average and Schwarber is in the first. Alec Bohm is a problem at third base, and in the Phils’ only loss so far, Game 2 to the Braves, Hoskins butchered a ground ball that led to a couple of runs.

Final thought: Eliminating the Braves in four games puts the Philadelphia rotation back in order: Zack Wheeler will be ready to start Game 1, Aaron Nola on full rest for Game 2 and then Ranger Suarez for Game 3. But with the possibility of seven games in eight days, that means digging into the No. 4 (Noah Syndergaard) and probably the No. 5 (likely Bailey Falter) starters, which will further stress the thin bullpen. With an off day after Game 2, Wheeler would be lined up to go in Game 5, but Nola wouldn’t be on full rest until Game 7. If the series does go seven, though — the Phillies will like their chances with Nola. — Schoenfield


Why they can move on: Postseason success has become more and more about finding the hot bullpen — and manager Bob Melvin might have found it at exactly the right time. Robert Suarez, the 31-year-old rookie who spent his career in Mexico and Japan before signing with the Padres, has tossed six scoreless innings in the postseason, topping out at 101.5 mph. Veteran Luis Garcia has hit 101 mph in the postseason. Tim Hill can be a tough matchup for left-handed hitters. Most importantly, closer Josh Hader has rediscovered his mojo after a few horrific blowups earlier in the season with the Brewers and Padres (including a six-run outing in late August). He has allowed just one hit in 4 1/3 scoreless innings in the postseason and topped out at 100.8 mph. If you’re going to beat the Padres’ bullpen, you better be able to hit some high-octane heat.

Why they might not: You need to hit home runs to win in the postseason. So far, the Padres — who ranked just 12th in the NL in home runs in the regular season — have done that, hitting nine in seven games. But some of those have come from surprising sources, mostly notably three from Trent Grisham — a batter who hit .184 in the regular season. Juan Soto, who hit just six home runs in 52 games with the Padres, continues to search for his power stroke.

Who’s hot: Joe Musgrove and his ears. Red hot, to be precise. Musgrove made the All-Star team after a dominant first half in which he allowed a .205 average and .595 OPS, before batters hit .254 with a .758 OPS against him in the second half. He dominated the Mets with one hit — and one ear check — over seven scoreless innings in the wild-card series and then held the Dodgers to two runs in six innings in the division series.

Who’s not: The Padres’ rotation thins out after Yu Darvish, Musgrove and Blake Snell. Mike Clevinger drew the ball against the Dodgers in Game 1 and got knocked out in the third inning — this after a 6.52 ERA in September. Sean Manaea might get the next opportunity to start over Clevinger and then Melvin might have to rely heavily on his bullpen. Nick Martinez, a part-time starter during the season, can go multiple innings and might play a key role in the middle games of this series.

How’s the defense? Manny Machado has had an excellent postseason with a couple of home runs and vacuum cleaner defense at third base. Ha-Seong Kim is an underrated shortstop, and Grisham is arguably the best center fielder in the majors right now (99th percentile in outs above average). The big liability is Soto, who is a terrible right fielder — bad reads, below-average speed and seemingly indifferent to playing well out there. He does have a decent arm, but the defensive metrics (first percentile in outs above average) support the eye test. The Padres hope the ball doesn’t find him in key moments.

Final thought: The Padres’ master plan to dethrone the Dodgers didn’t materialize in the regular season — the Dodgers not only beat them by 22 games but won all six series. But the Padres won the one that counts the most and will now actually get home-field advantage in the NLCS over the Phillies. If the fans bring the same energy and noise they brought against the Dodgers, that’s a small factor in their favor. The bullpen is clicking on all cylinders and the top three starters are pitching well. This series could come down to pitching depth, and the Padres have the advantage there over the Phillies. — Schoenfield


Who will win?

Padres (7 votes), Phillies (5)

Tristan Cockcroft: Phillies in 6

MVP: Wheeler

The one thing we’ll all be talking about during this series: Either Austin Nola taking brother Aaron deep in his first at-bat in Game 2, or whether the Padres would’ve ultimately won had Fernando Tatis Jr. been available this postseason.

Bradford Doolittle: Phillies in 6

MVP: J.T. Realmuto

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: How Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski did it again, assembling a pennant winner with a big payroll and a roster that was incomplete but could flex its star power at the right time.

Alden Gonzalez: Padres in 6

MVP: Machado

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: How San Diego might really, truly be a baseball town.

Eric Karabell: Phillies in 6

MVP: Harper

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: Harper 1, Machado 0.

Tim Keown: Padres in 7

MVP: Machado

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: The improbable convergence of talent and cohesiveness that appeared almost out of nowhere and carried the Padres to the World Series.

Tim Kurkjian: Padres in 7

MVP: Machado

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: How the Padres — who, in early August, were supposed to be an offensive machine — won with great pitching.

Joon Lee: Padres in 7

MVP: Musgrove

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: The Padres’ roster depth, overcoming the suspension of Tatis Jr., and showing that getting aggressive at the trade deadline can be the difference between a wild-card exit and making the World Series.

Kiley McDaniel: Phillies in 7

MVP: Nola

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: The Dombrowski formula works again — and the 76ers/Eagles are good, too!

Buster Olney: Padres in 6

MVP: Soto

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: How owner Peter Seidler hoisted the Padres into the echelon of elite teams through his desire to win, giving the OK to expend resources to get Melvin, as well as players like Machado, Soto, Musgrove, Darvish and Hader — to name a few. Seidler changed the trajectory of the franchise.

Jeff Passan: Padres in 7

MVP: Soto

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: The last time the Padres made a World Series, nearly a quarter-century ago, where they were promptly swept by the Yankees. For this team to go all-in and make it to the Fall Classic, even without Tatis Jr., is not just a phenomenal outcome for this season but a portent of a great future.

Jesse Rogers: Phillies in 6

MVP: Harper

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: The Phillies’ starting staff — it’s as good as it comes, and even with some question marks in Philadelphia’s bullpen, the Padres won’t score much in the series.

Schoenfield: Padres in 6

MVP: Machado

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: The Padres’ bullpen. Luis Garcia, Suarez and Hader were each throwing 100 mph laser beams against the Dodgers. If the Padres are leading after six, those three will take it home.

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Padres’ Bogaerts leaves after diving for ball

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Padres' Bogaerts leaves after diving for ball

ATLANTA — San Diego Padres second baseman Xander Bogaerts apparently injured his left shoulder and was removed from Monday’s game against the Atlanta Braves.

Bogaerts landed on the shoulder while diving for a bases-loaded grounder hit by Ronald Acuña Jr. in the third inning. Bogaerts stopped the grounder but was unable to make a throw on Acuña’s run-scoring infield hit.

Bogaerts immediately signaled to the bench for assistance and a trainer examined the second baseman before escorting him off the field.

Tyler Wade replaced Bogaerts at second base. The run-scoring single by Acuña gave Atlanta a 5-0 lead over Dylan Cease and the Padres.

Bogaerts entered Monday’s first game of a doubleheader hitting .220 with four homers and 14 RBI.

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MLB opens investigation into ex-Angel Fletcher

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MLB opens investigation into ex-Angel Fletcher

MLB opened an investigation Monday into allegations that former Los Angeles Angels infielder David Fletcher gambled with an illegal bookie, an MLB source told ESPN, but investigators face a significant hurdle at the start — where they’re going to get evidence.

ESPN reported Friday that Fletcher, who is currently playing for the Atlanta Braves‘ Triple-A affiliate, bet on sports — but not baseball — with Mathew Bowyer, the Southern California bookmaker who took wagers from Shohei Ohtani‘s longtime interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara.

Fletcher’s close friend Colby Schultz, a former minor leaguer, also bet with Bowyer and wagered on baseball, including on Angels games that Fletcher played in while he was on the team, according to sources.

“Government cooperation will be crucial in a case like this where we don’t have evidence,” the MLB source said.

MLB investigators will request an interview with Fletcher at some point, but he has the right to refuse cooperation if he can claim he could be the subject of a criminal investigation.

Fletcher did not respond to multiple requests for comment Friday.

The source declined to say whether MLB has reached out to law enforcement for assistance yet, but investigators are expected to do so.

Fletcher might continue playing during the MLB investigation, according to the source. He went 0-3 with a walk Saturday for the Gwinnett Stripers, the day after ESPN’s report, and made a rare relief pitching appearance in Sunday’s game, giving up three runs in 1⅓ innings. Fletcher had never pitched professionally before this season, but has made three relief appearances for Gwinnett.

MLB sources have said that if a player bet illegally but not on baseball, it’s likely he would receive a fine rather than a suspension. Any player connected to any betting on baseball games could face up to a lifetime ban.

Fletcher told ESPN in March that he was present at the 2021 poker game in San Diego where Mizuhara first met Bowyer. Fletcher said he never placed a bet himself with Bowyer’s organization.

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What to know ahead of this week’s House v. NCAA settlement votes

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What to know ahead of this week's House v. NCAA settlement votes

The trajectory of major college sports is set to bend this week to give athletes a significantly larger portion of the billions of dollars they help generate for their schools.

The industry’s top leaders will gather in the next few days to vote on the proposed terms of a landmark settlement. The deal would create a new framework for schools to share millions of dollars with their athletes in the future and create a fund of more than $2.7 billion to pay former athletes for past damages.

The settlement would also mark the end of at least three major federal antitrust lawsuits looming as existential threats to the NCAA and its schools, and would resolve the most pressing — and arguably most formidable — legal challenges facing the college sports industry. The deal would not, however, solve all of the NCAA’s problems or even provide clear answers to many crucial questions about how a more professionalized version of major college sports might look in the near future.

Here are some of the details and unsolved questions shaping conversations during what could be a monumental week in the history of college sports.

Terms of the settlement

While several important details are not yet finalized, sources have confirmed the following general structure of an agreement to settle the House v. NCAA case:

The NCAA’s national office would foot the bill for a $2.7 billion payment for past damages over the course of the next 10 years. The NCAA would generate the majority of that money partly by cutting back on the funds that it distributes to Division I schools on an annual basis.

The power conferences would agree to a forward-looking revenue sharing structure that would give schools the ability to spend a maximum of roughly $20 million per year on direct payments to athletes. The $20 million figure could grow larger every few years if school revenue grows. Each school would be left to decide how to allocate that money while remaining compliant with Title IX laws.

The plaintiffs, which could include all current Division I athletes, would give up their right to file future antitrust claims against the NCAA’s rules. This would include dropping two pending antitrust cases (Hubbard v. NCAA and Carter v. NCAA) that also have been filed by plaintiff attorneys Steve Berman and Jeffrey Kessler.

The sides would also agree to renew the class on an annual basis to include new athletes. New athletes — mostly incoming freshmen — would have to declare that they are opting out of the class in order to challenge the NCAA’s restrictions on payments in the future.

This rolling new class of athletes would, in effect, retire the most impactful tool that has been used over the past decade to chip away at the NCAA’s amateurism rules. Previously, Berman and Kessler needed only one athlete to lend his or her name to a case that would aim to remove illegal restrictions for all college athletes. Moving forward, a lawyer pushing to provide more benefits for athletes will first have to organize and gain commitments from a large group of players who opted out of the settlement.

Athletic and university administrators have long argued that their athletes are generally happy with what the schools provide and that the last decade’s lawsuits are the product of agitating lawyers and advocates. A settlement would not close the door on bargaining with athletes in the future, but it would make it less appealing for attorneys to test the legality of the NCAA’s rules without an explicit demand from a large swath of athletes.

While individual athletes could still opt out and sue the NCAA, the damages for a single athlete or small group of athletes would be far smaller. So, in practice, the House case settlement would provide schools with protection from future suits by removing the financial incentives that make these cases — which often takes years to fight — worthwhile for a plaintiffs’ attorney.

Class action cases have been an important tool to date for plaintiff attorneys because organizing college athletes — a busy and transient group of young people — is extremely difficult. (Although there are a number of groups actively attempting to form college players’ associations.) Some sports antitrust experts, such as Baruch College law professor Marc Edelman, say that, by making future class action lawsuits more difficult, this settlement would give schools ample license to collude on restricting payment to players. Edelman said this conflict could give a judge pause when deciding to approve the terms of the settlement.

Who’s in?

Attorneys representing the plaintiff class of all Division I athletes proposed terms to all defendants involved in the lawsuit in late April. To settle the case fully, the NCAA and each of the five power conferences will have to agree to the terms. Leaders from each group are expected to hold votes by Thursday.

The NCAA’s Board of Governors is scheduled to meet Wednesday.

The Big Ten presidents are planning to meet in person and vote this week as part of the league’s regularly scheduled meetings. That league has long been considered the major conference with the least amount of pushback on the vote. ACC presidents, SEC leaders and Big 12 leaders will also vote this week. In an odd twist, the Pac-12’s membership from this past season will gather virtually to vote, as the 10 departing programs will not vote in the conferences they plan to join next year. Since the Pac-12 was part of the suit as a 12-team league, the 12 presidents and chancellors of those schools will vote as a 12-school unit.

While the NCAA and conferences have to opt in, any athletes involved in the class will have an opportunity to opt out once the attorneys hammer out the details of settlement terms. Any athletes who opt out would retain the right to sue the NCAA in the future, but they would miss out on their cut of the $2.7 billion in damages. On the flip side, it’s unlikely that a current athlete who opts out would give up the opportunity to receive the forward-looking revenue share money, according to legal sources.

Next steps

If all parties agree to the broader terms of a settlement of the House case this week, their attorneys will get to work drafting the fine print of an agreement. That process can take weeks, according to attorneys with experience settling complex antitrust cases.

The judge overseeing the case, Judge Claudia Wilken of California’s Northern District, would then hold a preliminary hearing to review the terms of the settlement. If the judge approves, notice would be sent to all athletes providing them with a chance to formally object or opt out. And finally, the agreement would go back to the courthouse where Wilken would consider any arguments presented in objection before deciding whether the settlement meets her approval.

The Fontenot Case

Alex Fontenot is a former Colorado football player who sued the NCAA in late November for restricting athletes from sharing in television rights revenue. He filed his case a few weeks before Berman and Kessler (the two attorneys representing athletes in the current settlement negotiations) filed a similar complaint called Carter v. NCAA.

Both Kessler and the NCAA have argued that the two complaints are similar and should be consolidated into a single case, which would likely lead to the Fontenot case being part of the pending settlement talks. Fontenot’s attorneys do not want to consolidate and will present their argument for why the cases should be separate in a Colorado courtroom this Thursday.

Garrett Broshuis, Fontenot’s attorney, said he has concerns about how the House settlement could make it harder for future athletes to fight for more rights. Broshuis, a former pitcher at Missouri, has spent most of the last decade successfully suing Major League Baseball to help minor leaguers negotiate better working conditions.

The judge in the Fontenot case has not yet made a ruling on whether it should qualify as a class action lawsuit. If the House settlement is finalized, any college athlete would have to opt out of the settlement in order to take part in the Fontenot case. Opt-outs or objections raised during the House settlement hearings could give Judge Wilken additional pause in approving its terms.

Would Fontenot and other athletes who are working with his attorneys on this case opt out of the House settlement in hopes of pursuing a better deal in their own case?

“To the extent we can, we’re monitoring the media reports surrounding the proposed settlement,” Broshuis told ESPN this weekend. “Once the actual terms are available, we’ll closely scrutinize them. We do have concerns about what’s being reported so far, especially when it comes to the ability for future generations of athletes to continue to fight for their rights.”

Scholarship and roster limits

In the sprint to settle, there’s a bevy of details that are going to be left to college sports leaders to work out in coming months.

The inclusion of roster caps could impact college sports on the field. Right now, college sports operate with scholarship limits. For example, Division I football is limited to 85 scholarships, baseball to 11.7, and softball to 12. Meanwhile, Division I football rosters run to nearly 140 players on the high end, while baseball rosters top out around 40 players, and softball averages about 25 players.

Leaders in college sports are considering uniform roster caps instead of scholarship limits, which could be viewed as another collusive restraint on spending. This would give schools the choice to give out 20 baseball scholarships, for example, if they wished.

If rosters are capped at a certain number, the ripple effect could be more scholarships and smaller roster sizes. The viability of walk-ons, especially for rosters with dozens of them, could be at risk.

Sources caution that this won’t be determined for months, as formalizing roster caps are not part of the settlement. Sources have told ESPN that football coaches in particular will be vocal about radical changes, as walk-ons are part of the fabric of the sport. Stetson Bennett (Georgia), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) and Hunter Renfrow (Clemson) are all recent examples of transformative walk-ons.

The future of collectives

Multiple sources have told ESPN that some school leaders are hopeful the future revenue sharing model will eliminate or significantly decrease the role that NIL collectives play in the marketplace for athletes.

While an additional $20 million flowing directly from schools to athletes could theoretically satisfy the competitive market for talent and decrease the interest of major donors from contributing to collectives, experts say there is no clear legal mechanism that could be included in a settlement that would eliminate collectives. Those groups — which are independent from schools even if they often operate in a hand-in-glove fashion — could continue to use NIL opportunities to give their schools an edge in recruiting by adding money on top of the revenue share that an athlete might get from his or her school.

For the schools with the deepest pockets or most competitive donors, a $20 million estimated revenue share would be in reality more of a floor than a ceiling for athlete compensation. Most well-established collectives are planning to continue operating outside of their school’s control, according to Russell White, the president of TCA, a trade association of more than 30 different collectives associated with power conference schools.

“It just makes $20 million the new baseline,” White told ESPN. “Their hope is that this tamps down donor fatigue and boosters feel like they won’t have to contribute [to collectives]. But these groups like to win. There’s no chance this will turn off those competitive juices.”

How would the damages money be distributed?

Any athlete who played a Division I sport from 2016 through present day has a claim to some of the roughly $2.7 billion in settlement money. The plaintiffs’ attorneys will also receive a significant portion of the money. The damages represent money athletes might have made through NIL deals if the NCAA’s rules had not restricted them in the past.

It’s not clear if the plaintiffs will disburse the money equally among the whole class or assign different values based on an athlete’s probable earning power during his or her career. Some class action settlements hire specialists to determine each class member’s relative value and how much of the overall payment they should receive. That could be a painfully detailed process in this case, which includes tens of thousands of athletes in the class.

The NCAA also plans to pay that money over the course of the next 10 years, according to sources. It’s not clear if every athlete in the class would get an annual check for the next decade or if each athlete would be paid in one lump sum with some of them waiting years longer than others to receive their cut.

Are there any roadblocks to settlement expected?

In short, the NCAA’s schools and conferences will likely move forward with the agreement this week despite unhappiness in how the NCAA will withhold the revenue from schools to pay the $2.7 billion over the next decade.

There is significant pushback among leagues outside the power leagues on the proposed payment structure. According to a memo the NCAA sent to all 32 Division I conferences this week, the NCAA will use more than $1 billion from reserves, catastrophic insurance, new revenue and budget cuts to help pay the damages, sources told ESPN this week. The memo also states that an additional $1.6 billion would come from reductions in NCAA distributions, 60 percent of which would come from the 27 Division I conferences outside of the so-called power five football leagues. The other 40 percent would come from cuts the power conferences, which are the named defendants with the NCAA in the case.

The basketball-centric Big East is slated to sacrifice between $5.4 million and $6.6 million annually over the next decade, and the similarly basketball-centric West Coast Conference between $3.5 million and $4.3 million annually, according to a source familiar with the memo. The smallest leagues would lose out on just under $2 million annually, which is nearly 20% of what they receive annually from the NCAA.

(The NCAA would withhold money from six funds across Division I leagues — the basketball performance fund via the NCAA tournament, grants-in-aid, the academic enhancement fund, sports sponsorships, conference grants and the academic performance fund.)

In an e-mail obtained by ESPN from Big East commissioner Val Ackerman to her athletic directors and presidents on Saturday morning, she said the Big East has “strong objections” to the damages framework. She wrote that she’s relayed those to NCAA president Charlie Baker.

The 22 conferences that don’t have FBS football — known as the CCA22 — have also been engaged in conversations about their disappointment with the damages proposal, according to sources.

Per a source, some members of the CCA22 are planning on sending a letter to the NCAA requesting the responsibility be flipped — the power conferences contributing to 60 percent of the damages and the other 27 leagues contributing 40 percent. In her message, Ackerman wrote she expects former FBS football players will be “the primary beneficiaries of the NIL ‘back pay’ amounts” — suggesting that the damages may not be shared equally among athletes.

Ackerman’s letter does mention the widely held belief in the industry that it may be tough for any significant change: “At this stage, it is unclear how much time or leverage we will have to alter the plan the NCAA and [power conferences] have orchestrated.”

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