Snapshots and moon shots: Padres’ Polaroid tradition continues in NLCS
SAN DIEGO — Within the hallway that connects Petco Park’s home clubhouse to its first-base dugout, a mural has sprung, populated with a collection of Polaroid pictures that has grown with each passing triumph. The running tally sits at 163 photographs, neatly organized within 11 rows, a static highlight reel for the San Diego Padres‘ resurgent season.
Two were added in the wake of their dramatic Game 2 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday afternoon. One features Brandon Drury and Josh Bell, the two men who ignited a dramatic comeback. The other is headlined by Manny Machado, who used both his bat and his glove to secure the 8-5 win that evened the National League Championship Series at a game apiece.
Later that night, Jurickson Profar looked through them all once more, smiling at the memories they triggered. He was asked to pick a favorite.
“Man,” Profar said, shaking his head, “all of them.”
The concept began with Joe Musgrove, who was partly inspired by Marcell Ozuna‘s mock selfie celebration during home run trots in Atlanta. As more and more teams devised elaborate in-game celebrations, Musgrove was looking for a dugout ritual that would distinguish his Padres. He bought a Polaroid camera, figuring he might as well produce some keepsakes, too.
The Padres have faced their fair share of adversity in their quest to capture the first championship in franchise history, from Fernando Tatis Jr.’s suspension to Josh Hader‘s struggles to the offense’s prolonged inconsistency. Through it all, that wall has been a welcome reminder of the good times, marking their growing camaraderie. Home runs and strikeouts are depicted, but so are random gatherings and quirky moments, some of which don’t have an explanation.
When this 2022 season ends — whenever that is — Musgrove hopes to compile the photos into a coffee-table book, copies of which might be sold for charity.
“We’re not just co-workers — we’re friends,” fellow Padres starter Mike Clevinger said. “We have a lot of fun being together. We pick each other up, no one stays down on anybody else. It’s just great energy in this clubhouse, and we’ve built on it. It just keeps getting stronger and stronger.”
What follows is a story of the Padres’ season, as told through the players’ favorite photos.
The Padres defeated the Atlanta Braves in extra innings on May 15, and Yu Darvish immediately pulled out his checkbook. Nabil Crismatt had finally established himself as a reliable major league reliever last season, four teams and one decade removed from being signed out of Colombia. But he stayed stuck at 93 mph. It remained his highest fastball velocity, an encumbrance in an era of triple-digit throwers out of bullpens.
Darvish had offered Crismatt $1,000 for every tick he threw above 93, his way of challenging him to get better. On this afternoon at Truist Park, Crismatt, who pitched two scoreless innings and struck out four batters, finally reached 94 mph. It came against his second batter, resulting in a caught-looking strikeout of Adam Duvall in the bottom of the ninth. This, naturally, is his favorite photo.
“Yu told me if I hit 95 it’s a thousand more,” Crismatt said. “I’ll keep working at it.”
Several of the Padres players had a hard time picking a singular photo — perhaps none more than Musgrove himself.
The Padres starter identified as many as five photos as his favorite, including this one, from June 3, taken shortly after he completed eight scoreless innings in Milwaukee.
Musgrove joined the Padres in January 2021, during a three-week stretch in which A.J. Preller also traded for Darvish and Blake Snell. Musgrove was the least accomplished among the three starting pitchers, but he has become the most celebrated — as a San Diego product and lifelong Padres fan who threw the first no-hitter in franchise history in April 2021 and eschewed forthcoming free agency by signing a five-year, $100 million extension in August 2022.
When the Padres most desperately needed a win this postseason, Musgrove, fittingly, has been the one who has come through, pitching seven one-hit innings in a winner-take-all wild-card game against the New York Mets and following it up with six innings of two-run ball to eliminate the rival Los Angeles Dodgers. He’ll get the ball again in Game 3 of the NLCS from Philadelphia on Friday night, with a chance to swing the series in his team’s favor — and the Padres wouldn’t want it any other way.
Profar deliberated for a while before finally landing on this one, commemorating his leadoff home run on June 7.
The Padres’ offense operated as a one-man show for most of the first four months, carried largely by Machado. But some much-needed help appeared in late May, when Profar was moved into the leadoff spot in an effort to get him going offensively. It would become his home. Profar provided a .745 OPS as a leadoff hitter this season, 60 points higher than what he produced in any of the other spots in the lineup.
“It fits me really well,” Profar said. “It fits my style of hitting.”
Drury’s Padres tenure got off to a roaring start. On Aug. 3, one day after being acquired from the Cincinnati Reds, Drury hit a grand slam. It came in the very first inning, after Juan Soto and Josh Bell — the other new additions to the lineup — had reached in front of him. Drury became the first player to hit a grand slam in his first plate appearance after switching teams within a season.
The Padres celebrated with a group shot that ran nine deep.
“That was a pretty exciting photo right there,” veteran reliever Craig Stammen said.
“Just the moment,” Machado added. “It was everybody’s first day together, he does that, we end up winning by a lot — that was awesome.”
One problem: the camera malfunctioned, and a picture never sprouted. The Padres have lost several photos throughout the season, but this was one that needed to be salvaged. So they improvised: Clevinger found the professional photo online, printed it, framed it and posed with it for the Polaroid.
“It was a storybook moment,” Clevinger said.
One player is noticeably more prominent on the wall than any other — Nick Martinez, the veteran right-hander who has become an invaluable member of the Padres’ pitching staff for his ability to start games and, more recently, work in high-leverage roles out of the bullpen. Martinez has tried to get in on as many Polaroids as possible, often waiting an extra inning to walk to the bullpen in hopes that a picture-worthy moment will materialize.
The photo above, though, is his favorite. The date is unknown, but the theme is evergreen: players sitting together in the clubhouse, in no rush to get home, a common occurrence this season.
“It’s a testament to how close we are,” Martinez said. “We like hanging out with each other after games, and that one just kind of shows the camaraderie that we have.”
This is Bob Melvin’s only appearance on the wall. The picture is from Sept. 2, shortly after Darvish pitched seven scoreless innings from Dodger Stadium. A handful of players identified this as their favorite, not just because Melvin is in it but because he agreed to be photographed while a game was ongoing.
Snell called it “iconic.”
“It was Yu,” Melvin said. “He’s the only guy I’d do that with. After we took it, he was like, ‘I hope that didn’t make you uncomfortable.’ I told him, ‘Yeah, maybe a little bit, but for you I’d do anything.'”
One of Melvin’s greatest strengths as a manager is his ability to connect with players, a byproduct, largely, of genuine trust in them. Melvin won over the starting pitchers earlier this season — and got them to buy into the concept of a six-man rotation — by letting them pitch deeper into games than they normally would. It’s true of his offensive players, as well: Earlier in these playoffs, Trent Grisham credited Melvin’s “consistent faith” for his surprising offensive resurgence in October.
Melvin also knows how to pick his spots. He saved his first and only real postgame blow-up for the night of Sept. 15, in the visiting clubhouse at Chase Field in Phoenix, after the Padres were blanked by a rookie pitcher making his major league debut. The Padres had been playing to a losing record since the start of July, and Melvin chastised them for their lack of intensity. It shocked the players, but it also helped them lock in for the stretch run.
The Padres won eight of their next 10 and have played a much more crisp brand of baseball ever since. “It was the right time and the right place to kind of light a fire under everybody,” Padres second baseman Jake Cronenworth said, “and it seemed to work.”
Until this postseason, the Padres had been dominated by the Dodgers, losing their final nine games against them in 2021 and 14 of 19 during the regular season in 2022. But they navigated their NLDS triumph over Los Angeles with noticeable swagger — and maybe the roots of that were planted on Sept. 2 (moments before Melvin’s inaugural Polaroid appearance).
The Padres faced the famously demonstrative Dustin May that night, and one sequence in particular irked them. It was the third inning. May got Soto to swing through a 100 mph fastball to move ahead in the count, 1-2, and let out a primal yell to celebrate. Soto took the next three pitches for balls to work a walk, then flicked his bat and glared at May before beginning his jog to first base. Two pitches later, Machado launched a 410-foot home run.
The two returned to the dugout and prepared to strike a pose — and Soto’s improvisation quickly turned mocking.
“He’s screaming in the photo,” Musgrove said. “That was pretty funny.”
Musgrove got the photography bug through his girlfriend. The two have taken to scrapbooking their offseason camping trips, and Musgrove has learned to appreciate a good photo through it. This one — of Sean Manaea playfully blowing a kiss to a nearby Padres fan in Pittsburgh, moments after an on-field interview — stood out for the aesthetics.
“Just the sky, how it came together behind him,” Musgrove said. “That was a cool shot.”
Wil Myers represents a different time in Padres history. He was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in a three-team, 11-player trade in December 2014, one of the headliners in a dizzying five-month stretch that also saw Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, B.J. Upton, James Shields and Craig Kimbrel head to San Diego. The group lasted less than two years together before Preller traded away the veterans to kickstart the rebuild that produced the current nucleus.
Myers is the only player remaining from the prior era, and his remaining time in San Diego might be short, given the $20 million club option that is certain to be declined this offseason. As his Padres tenure nears the end, though, he has found a way to contribute. After the Soto acquisition made him the odd man out in a suddenly crowded outfield mix, Myers re-learned first base and became a defensive stalwart at the position.
In the middle of the eighth inning of the regular-season finale on Oct. 5, the Padres removed Myers so that the home crowd could salute him one final time. As he came into the dugout, Musgrove, camera in hand, twirled his right index finger in the air, signaling for teammates to gather. The Padres were headed into the postseason, but it would begin with a best-of-three wild-card series played exclusively in New York City. Nobody knew if Myers would get another home game as a Padre.
It’s no surprise that photo is the one he identified as his favorite.
Machado has a signature look — arms crossed, shoulders back, head slightly tilted. It never wavers.
“That’s my pose,” he said.
Usually that pose is surrounded by boisterous teammates. But in this photo he is distinctly alone, in the back corner of the visiting dugout at Citi Field. It was the fifth inning of the Padres’ postseason opener on Oct. 7, and Machado was fresh off clobbering a home run that ended Max Scherzer‘s outing prematurely.
Twelve days later, as Musgrove and Manaea looked through their swelling mural, that photo kept popping up in conversation — perhaps because of what it signified. That night, the Padres had announced themselves as legitimate threats in these playoffs, stunning the 101-win Mets to take Game 1 in emphatic fashion. Over the next two weeks, they would go on to play their best baseball of the season, saving their very best when it mattered most.
Suddenly they were carrying themselves like legitimate championship contenders.
That moment — that photo — embodied their attitude.
MONTREAL — Alex Ovechkin padded his NHL goals record and moved up a couple other big lists in the Washington Capitals‘ 8-4 romp over the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday night.
Ovechkin had his 33rd career hat trick to tie Brett Hull for fourth in NHL history and added an assist as he moved past Joe Sakic into 10th on the points list.
Ovechkin has 10 goals in 21 games this season to push his NHL-record to 907. The 40-year-old Russian has 1,643 points, two more than Sakic.
“I just try to do my job and try to enjoy the moment and enjoy the time,” Ovechkin said.
Ovechkin opened the scoring on a power play a minute into the first period, firing a wrist shot past goalie Sam Montembeault off a faceoff. Ovechkin assisted on Ethen Frank‘s goal two minutes into the second that gave the Capitals the lead for good at 2-1.
The Washington star scored twice late in the third period, the first on a rush with 4:57 to go and the second into an empty net from his own zone with 2:04 remaining. He has scored in four straight games and has seven goals in his last six games.
“After everything he’s done we’re still amazed at what he can do, and I’m sure he’s not close to slowing down,” Frank said of Ovechkin.
Ovechkin is the second player in NHL history with six goals in a four-game span at age 40 or older, according to ESPN Research.
Coming off a 7-4 home victory over Edmonton on Wednesday night, Washington has won three in a row to improve to 11-8-2. It was the Capitals’ lone road game in an eight-game span.
Montreal has lost five straight and seven of eight.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
It’s time for Texas to pack up.
The Longhorns plummeted to No. 17 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s third of six rankings, indicating that even if they run the table and punctuate their résumé with a win against No. 3 Texas A&M, they might still be locked out.
Notre Dame, though, should buy some furniture and move in. At No. 9 — ahead of No. 10 Alabama — the selection committee continued to reward the two-loss Irish for how they’re playing — not who they’re beating. No. 10 Alabama has four wins against CFP top-25 opponents, including the committee’s No. 4 team Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Mizzou, which snuck back into the ranking this week. Notre Dame’s only win against a CFP-ranked team is against No. 15 USC.
While the changes at the top were minimal, No. 24 Tulane is now the flavor of the week in the Group of 5 race after Navy knocked South Florida out of the same spot.
With only three Saturdays remaining before Selection Day, there are still games that can change the picture entirely, which leaves hope for some teams hovering on the bubble (here’s lookin’ at you, Miami).
The Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s committee ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The loss to Oklahoma didn’t knock the Tide out of the committee’s top 12, but it put No. 10 Alabama in must-win mode and will keep them ranked behind the Sooners. The Tide have only one SEC loss and still have the best chance of any team to reach the conference championship game (71.6%), according to ESPN Analytics.
First team out: Vanderbilt. No. 14 Vandy jumped ahead of the three-loss Longhorns despite the head-to-head loss to Texas, but remains a long shot for the field as an at-large bid. The Commodores would need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee — plus hope there is some chaos above them. Maybe — maybe — if Bama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Miami loses to Pitt, and BYU loses to Cincinnati — it can open the door, but clearly multiple things need to work in their favor.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. This could change quickly if Oregon loses at home to USC on Saturday, as there are questions in the room about the Ducks’ No. 31 schedule strength. The Nov. 8 win at Iowa was impressive, but the Hawkeyes are now a four-loss team and dropped out of the top 25. The Ducks also have a double-digit home loss to Indiana, which is why their chances of reaching the Big Ten title game are only 12%.
First team out: USC. Like Oregon, USC just boosted its résumé with a gritty, close win against a talented Iowa team that fell out of the ranking with its fourth loss. The Trojans’ two losses were by a total of 12 points to Illinois and Notre Dame — and were both on the road. USC has a critical win against No. 18 Michigan, which boosts its status and gives the Trojans a tiebreaker in the Big Ten standings. If USC can win at Oregon (and avoid an embarrassing home loss to UCLA), the Trojans can unseat the Ducks as the Big Ten’s last team in. They would likely finish behind Notre Dame, though, because of the head-to-head result.
Still in the mix: Michigan. The difference between No. 18 Michigan and No. 17 Texas is that the Wolverines are still mathematically eligible to reach the Big Ten title game with a 3.6% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. The Wolverines avoided elimination Saturday with a narrow 24-22 win at Northwestern. They still have a chance to beat the committee’s No. 1 team in rival Ohio State, and nobody in the country would have a better win if that happens. If Michigan can run the table, it would have one of the best two-loss résumés in the country but would be ranked behind USC unless the Trojans lose again. If USC loses to Oregon, and Oregon loses to Washington — and Michigan runs the table — the Wolverines will have a strong case to be the Big Ten’s third team in. The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma looks better now that the Sooners are a top-10 team.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. At No. 5, the Red Raiders are within arm’s reach of a first-round bye and have the best chance of winning the Big 12 (69.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech has a bye this week but can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game if both Cincinnati and Arizona State lose. The Oct. 18 loss to Arizona State won’t keep Texas Tech out of the CFP if it finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, given how highly the committee has regarded Texas Tech to this point. The chances of that became even better after Arizona State appeared in the ranking at No. 25, easing some of the pain of that loss. The Red Raiders end the regular season at 4-7 West Virginia.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars put it all together during Saturday’s dominant win against TCU, but they would be excluded from the playoff today in order to make room for one of the five highest ranked conference champions. BYU still has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (80.2%) behind Texas Tech (97.5%). They can clinch a spot with a win Saturday against Cincinnati and losses by both Arizona State and Houston. If BYU wins the league, it’s a CFP lock. If BYU loses, though, it would depend on how close the game is. The selection committee is unlikely to reward BYU with an at-large bid if it plays as poorly as it did against Texas Tech during the regular season.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah still has an 11.9% chance to reach the Big 12 championship, followed by ASU (8.4%) and Cincinnati (1.9%).
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. The No. 13 Canes are listed here because they are the selection committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and are still mathematically eligible to reach the conference championship game. Until the participants of that game are clear, the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team will continue to appear here. With six teams still in contention, the most fair representative is the committee’s. Still, Miami’s best chance at reaching the CFP right now is through an at-large bid because the Canes only have a 7.1% chance to reach the ACC title game. To get that at-large bid, Miami still needs to beat both Virginia Tech and Pitt and hope for losses above it to move into the top 10. The ACC champion will earn the No. 11 seed and the Group of 5 champion will have the No. 12 seed, so Miami needs to jump to No. 10 by Selection Day. It’s not inconceivable if Alabama loses to Auburn, BYU loses to Cincinnati and Utah loses to either K-State or at Kansas. It will take more than one of those things — if not all three. The question will be if the committee ever revisits Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame in the season opener. The Canes would likely have to creep closer to the Irish in their ranking for them to be comparable enough to use that tiebreaker. Georgia Tech can clinch a spot in the game with a win against Pitt on Saturday, and Virginia can clinch with losses by Duke, Pitt and SMU.
First team out: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets beat a 1-10 Boston College team by two points in spite of themselves and are a win away from a guaranteed appearance in the ACC championship game. They’ve also got a chance to earn a top-5 win in the regular-season finale against Georgia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t beat Georgia, it would need to win the ACC to reach the playoff because a three-loss ACC runner-up is out.
Still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC title game (77.7%); SMU is third (38%), followed by Duke (11%), Miami and Pitt (7%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. At No. 9 and ahead of two-loss Alabama, Notre Dame is winning the eye test, because it is ranked behind Alabama in both Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule. Alabama has the No. 4 schedule in the country, while the Irish are No. 29. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt, with only No. 15 USC ranked this week. As long as the Irish end the season with wins against Syracuse and Stanford, their place in the playoff should be secure.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. The Green Wave have decent wins against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis, and the best combination of eye test and résumé of the current contenders. Tulane’s No. 71 schedule strength is better than James Madison (No. 119), North Texas (No. 127) and Navy (No. 74). Tulane and North Texas are the most likely teams to play for the American Conference championship, but North Texas has the best chance to win the league (61.4%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: James Madison, Navy, North Texas. Of these teams, JMU has the best strength of record (No. 24) and game control (No. 40) ranks, but the worst strength of schedule (No. 119). Navy has the best win — against South Florida — and the best loss (to Notre Dame), but lost to North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s third ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
With two weeks left in the regular season, what was once a vague picture of the College Football Playoff is finally coming into view.
Ohio State and Indiana look like sure things from the Big Ten. Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss have all but punched their playoff tickets. Notre Dame and Texas Tech feel good about their odds, but all of that depends on something critical happening these last two weeks that can be boiled down to two simple words: avoid chaos.
Ah, but chaos is certainly possible.
Is Miami a contender? Can the Canes slip into the ACC title game mix?
Is Texas Tech guaranteed a bid? What happens if BYU keeps its stellar season going?
The ACC is ground zero for chaos and everyone from 9-1 Georgia Tech to 5-5 Duke still has a shot at winning the conference.
In the Big Ten, Oregon and USC will face off in what might be a de facto play-in game for the playoff.
And remember last week when Oklahoma earned a statement win against Alabama that appeared to shore up a playoff spot for the Sooners? Well, that dance card is only good as long as Oklahoma beats Missouri this week.
It’s late November, with just enough season behind us to feel as if we’ve got a real understanding of what’s ahead and just enough left on the docket to upend the whole picture and inject a fresh dose of head-spinning into the mix. — David Hale
Jump to:
Breakout players | BYU-Cincinnati
What’s at stake? | Quotes of the week
Top five breakout players this season
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss: One of the great plot twists of this college football season has been a little-known transfer from Division II Ferris State stepping in and leading the Rebels to a 10-1 record. Lane Kiffin’s new dual-threat playmaker won a D-II national title last season and has shown no fear in moving up to SEC ball, ranking seventh nationally with 3,101 total yards, 20 total touchdowns and only four turnovers since taking over for injured starter Austin Simmons. The No. 6 Rebels struck gold with Chambliss as well as 1,110-yard rusher Kewan Lacy, a Missouri transfer, in their efforts to reload on offense and get into the CFP.
Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State: Reese entered this season with only five career starts over two seasons with the Buckeyes, eager to finally become a full-time starter for the defending national champions. The 6-foot-4, 243-pound junior is quickly playing his way into projected top-10 draft pick status as one of the most versatile defensive playmakers under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia. Reese has produced a team-high 58 tackles with 18 pressures, 10 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks as a fast, powerful off-ball linebacker who’s just as gifted at rushing off the edge for the No. 1 scoring defense in FBS.
David Bailey, OLB, Texas Tech: Bailey didn’t earn All-ACC honors last season at Stanford but was highly coveted in the transfer portal by the Red Raiders as an impact pass rusher with big-time potential. Bailey has been worth every penny, leading the country with 12.5 sacks and 61 pressures through 11 games, while playing alongside Romello Height and Lee Hunter on one of the top defensive lines in the sport. Bailey is performing like a first-round talent for a No. 5-ranked Texas Tech squad determined to win the program’s first Big 12 championship.
Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M: The former Bowling Green transfer had a good debut season with the Aggies in 2024, but Howell has totally raised his game in his second year in the SEC. The 6-2, 248-pound senior has been a consistently elite pass rusher for the undefeated Aggies with 11.5 sacks and 37 pressures, and could end up being a first-round pick next spring.
Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy exceled during his freshman season at UL Monroe and continues to be one of the great transfer portal gets for the Tigers. He’s leading the country with 1,346 rushing yards and 15 TDs, and has forced 72 missed tackles, according to ESPN Research. Hardy just had another career-best day Saturday with a 300-yard effort against Mississippi State after already rushing for 250 yards against Louisiana, plus he has five 100-yard performances this season. — Max Olson
How could BYU-Cincinnati affect the Big 12 title race?
Texas Tech and BYU, the Big 12’s remaining one-loss teams, appear to be on course to meet again in the championship game. For them, it’s simple: win and you’re in. But as BYU learned last season when it was in the same spot through 10 games, simple doesn’t mean easy.
If the Cougars win at Cincinnati on Saturday, it would eliminate the Bearcats. Then BYU would be, at minimum, a win against UCF away from the title game. But the Cougars could also clinch a spot this weekend with two scenarios: 1) A win plus losses by Arizona State (at Colorado) and Houston (vs. TCU); or 2) A win and an Arizona State loss, plus a Utah win (Kansas State).
If BYU loses to Cincinnati, then all bets are off. Utah, Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati are all mathematically alive. Which means that all over them can still cling to CFP hopes, as far-fetched as they might be. This is one of the obvious benefits of the playoff format. It keeps more teams relevant later in the season and ensures meaningful games across the board into the final weeks. — Kyle Bonagura
What’s at stake in each matchup?
USC-Oregon: To put it bluntly: a spot in the CFP. That’s what’s at stake in Eugene this week as the college football world sets its eyes on the one marquee matchup this week.
USC has only one Big Ten loss and should it beat the Ducks, it would qualify for not only its best win of the season but one of the best wins in the sport this year. The Trojans have the offense to keep up with the Ducks; the question is, what USC defense will show up Saturday? That will be the key to pulling off the upset and putting Lincoln Riley’s team in the driver’s seat for a CFP spot.
One-loss Oregon might have some more breathing room if it loses to USC, but it’s not a guarantee the Ducks will get in with two losses. At that point, the Ducks’ best win would be at Iowa (currently unranked) and would have to rank behind at least USC (and Michigan if it beats Ohio State) making their entry back into the field a tight one, should it happen.
Plus, not to mention the fact that Oregon finishes with a tricky game at Washington — a team that has been up-and-down this season but has plenty of talent and motivation to play spoiler against its rival. — Paolo Uggetti
Pitt-Georgia Tech: A week ago, Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi colorfully made the point that his team could give up 100 points to Notre Dame, but it wouldn’t change the fact that these next two games, starting with Georgia Tech, will define the Panthers’ postseason fate. Well, Pitt didn’t surrender 100, but Notre Dame did win easily, putting an even bigger spotlight on the Panthers’ need to win out if they want any hope of capitalizing on a wide-open ACC.
For Georgia Tech, the stakes are even clearer. This is the Yellow Jackets’ final ACC game of the season. Win, and they’re guaranteed a spot in Charlotte for the ACC championship. Lose and all bets are off. Tech’s defense has been a train wreck the past two games, and getting right against Pitt is essential to keep a magical season going a little longer. — Hale
SMU-Louisville: While much of the attention in the ACC has focused on Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech, SMU still has a shot to make it to the ACC championship game for the second straight season. That is the biggest thing on the line Saturday. With only one conference loss, SMU sits in a four-way tie atop the ACC headed into the weekend. The easiest path to Charlotte is this one: SMU has to win out, and Pitt has to beat Georgia Tech on Saturday. There is another clinching scenario: SMU wins out, and Virginia Tech upsets Virginia next week.
Though the Mustangs do not control their destiny, the fact they are in the mix to play for a conference championship again speaks to the job coach Rhett Lashlee has done since SMU made the move to the ACC in 2024. SMU is not a one-trick pony (see what we did there), but is building a program meant to contend year after year.
“It is a little bit different than last year because we were in control of everything,” Lashlee said. “This year, it’s almost like a playoff scenario already. Nobody’s talking about us, and I’m totally cool with that.” — Andrea Adelson
Quotes of the week
“Brent Key, a great football coach who’s done an outstanding job,” Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi said of Georgia Tech’s fourth-year head coach. “They might as well just announce him as ACC Coach of the Year. He’s done an incredible job. Just give it to him early.”
“I think for us, these are all the same people that thought we were going to suck,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said on the 8-2 Trojans’ Week 13 appearance on College GameDay. “This is all the same people, you know, we were going to do this and USC was this and that. And so for us to pay attention to them now would be a little bit counterproductive. We haven’t forgotten that.”
Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin on if he expects to be coaching in the Nov. 29 Egg Bowl: “Do you know something that I don’t know? Do I expect to coach next week? Why would I not expect to coach next week? I mean, I expected to coach against Florida, too. So I don’t even understand the question about how I would not expect to coach next week. Why would I [not] be at work?”
“I’ve had no discussions, not with my agent, not with the university, not with any other school, not with any NFL team, about ever going anywhere else,” said Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, who knocked down rumors around a potential departure this week. “I came here to win championships.”
Colorado’s Deion Sanders appealed for more time with the Buffaloes this week: “You’ve got the right man [for the job]. I promise you, you do. And I’m going to prove that to you. Just give me an opportunity and a little more time, and I’m going to prove that to you.”
“Does it look, feel, smell and operate like a big-time program?” James Franklin said of his plans for Virginia Tech in his introductory news conference with the Hokies. “All those things need to be in place. … I think the previous coaches here were in some challenging situations. That’s the truth of it. There’s some things that we’re going to have to look at, and it’s not just James Franklin. It’s the marketing office, the ticketing office. Everybody’s got to take some time and look in the mirror and say, ‘Are we operating like a big-time program?'”
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