Bring on the World Series! What the Astros and Phillies need to do to win it all
The 2022 World Series matchup is set.
Starting Friday, the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies will clash for the Commissioner’s Trophy in a meeting of one league’s favorite and the other league’s biggest underdog.
Under MLB’s new playoff format, the Phillies entered as the sixth and final seed in the National League but advanced all the way to the Fall Classic, while the American League’s No. 1 seed, the Astros, rolled over the rest of the Junior Circuit.
What has October taught us about each of these teams? What do they need to do to come out on top? And which players could be the difference-makers on both sides? ESPN MLB experts Jeff Passan, Joon Lee, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield break it down.
What’s the most impressive thing about the Astros this postseason?
Passan: Everything is a thing, right? Fine. If a single thing defines the Astros, it’s their pitching depth. They have Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, both frontline starters, at the top of their rotation. They follow with Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr., each of whom would be a frontline starter on most teams. As good as their starting pitching is, the sheer amount of relief talent in their bullpen — from closer Ryan Pressly to Rafael Montero to Ryne Stanek to Bryan Abreu to Hector Neris to Hunter Brown — makes any lead feel comfortable. The Astros are excellent at everything, but their pitching is why they remain undefeated this postseason.
Lee: The depth across Houston’s roster. If you had told the Yankees heading into the American League Championship Series that through three games, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve would have just one hit apiece, New York would have been ecstatic. Instead, the rest of the Astros have led the way, from Yuli Gurriel to Alex Bregman to Chas McCormick to Jeremy Pena to Martin Maldonado. This Houston team can beat you in so many different ways, from its incredibly deep pitching staff to its lineup, which can knock you out with the long ball or beat you into the ground with singles and doubles. On top of that, it’s the consistency. Depth and consistency usually play well in October, and Houston has proved that against both the Mariners, in the AL Division Series, and the Yankees.
Why will it (or won’t it) work against the Phillies in the World Series?
Passan: Certainly the Phillies’ lineup, the way it’s hitting right now, poses a greater challenge than the Mariners or Yankees did for Houston. But as long as Dusty Baker manages with proper urgency and uses his bullpen as he can — mix and match and do not allow Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper third looks unless the starter is truly cruising — Houston has the goods to neutralize Philadelphia’s offense similarly to how it did Seattle’s and New York’s.
Lee: The Astros are the better team on paper, but being underdogs hasn’t stopped the Phillies so far in the postseason, after coming in as a third-place team from the NL East and beating the Cardinals, Braves and Padres on their path to the World Series. There’s also something to be said about that October magic, and getting hot at the right time. We’ve seen this run out for teams in the past, but Philadelphia has taken a cue from last year’s Braves and gotten scorching hot when it counts the most. Harper’s go-ahead homer in the National League Championship Series clincher was a sports moment too on-the-nose for the movies, but it felt written in the stars by the baseball gods.
Who is the one player who must deliver for the Astros to be champs from here?
Passan: Considering the Astros have gotten to the World Series with him practically nonexistent, perhaps Jose Altuve is a foolish answer. But to derail a hot and confident Phillies team, Houston needs production from the top of its order, and an Astros lineup with Altuve getting on base takes an engine that’s already spitting out plenty of horses and turbocharges it.
Lee: Pena has been Houston’s X factor so far in October. When Altuve and Alvarez have struggled, the previously unheralded rookie has come through and been a star for the Astros. If Altuve and Alvarez continue to struggle, guys like Pena, McCormick, Trey Mancini and Gurriel will need to help carry Houston to a World Series title.
What’s the most impressive thing about the Phillies this postseason?
Rogers: They instantly became the team everyone in the organization thought they could be, one with great starting pitching and massive power — enough in both areas to overcome any defensive flaws or bullpen unevenness. Harper, Schwarber and Hoskins aren’t missing mistakes and are playing with the most confidence they’ve had all year.
Schoenfield: The stars are hot — not just the sluggers, but also Zack Wheeler, who has a 1.78 ERA in his four starts. He could start Game 1 on full rest, but it might make sense for the Phillies to go with Aaron Nola and then Wheeler in Game 2 given that Wheeler started to tire around the 80-pitch mark in both of his starts against the Padres. An extra day of rest might help. But let’s mention something else: The Phillies’ bullpen has kind of figured things out a little bit, and manager Rob Thomson has done a great job adjusting on the fly and going with the hot hand. Seranthony Dominguez has allowed just one run in 7 2/3 postseason innings with 15 strikeouts and no walks — and that one run was in part a result of the wet conditions on Sunday. Jose Alvarado is throwing heat from the left side, and David Robertson has plenty of postseason experience. Thomson was even willing to use starter Ranger Suarez to close out Game 5 of the NLCS.
Why will it (or won’t it) work against the Astros in the World Series?
Rogers: The Phillies’ mojo will keep the Astros from winning in a short series, but eventually all that pitching will win out for them. The longer it goes, the better it is for Houston, as Philadelphia can’t match the Astros arm for arm. A best-of-seven usually isn’t won at the plate but on the mound. That’s where Houston prevails.
Schoenfield: The bullpen depth is still a little questionable — although Connor Brogdon had a clutch seven-out effort against the Padres in Game 4 and Andrew Bellatti has pitched well enough in his five appearances and could be a good matchup against Houston’s righty-heavy lineup (he allowed a .608 OPS against righties, but .866 to lefties). But what if Brad Hand has to face the Alvarez/Bregman/Kyle Tucker part of the order? And Thomson has been careful in his usage with Dominguez, who is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. He pitched just 11 times on back-to-back days in the regular season and has had days off between all six of his postseason appearances — at least two days in five of those. At some point, he’s going to have to go back-to-back days and maybe for a longer stretch of pitches.
Who is the one player who must deliver for the Phillies to be champs from here?
Rogers: It might be cliché to pick Harper, but he’s the guy. The Phillies’ heartbeat runs through him. They’ll be underdogs, deservingly, and they’ll need an extra special series to beat Houston. Who better to energize them once again than Bryce Harper? He’s already having a great postseason. As he goes, so goes the Phillies’ offense, which could shock the world by getting to a dominant Astros staff. It starts with Harper.
Schoenfield: I’m banking on another big series from Harper, but my key guy is Nola. Wheeler has the potential to dominate in his outings. The Astros are going to have the starting pitching edge in the games Suarez or Bailey Falter (or Noah Syndergaard) starts. Nola had two great postseason starts — 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Cardinals and then one unearned run against the Braves. Against the Padres, however, he had a 4-0 lead but allowed back-to-back home runs in the second and then four runs in the fifth. Nola is also extra vital because if he can go deep, that means more fresh arms for the Suarez and No. 4 starter games. Oh, one reason to start Nola in Game 2 instead of Game 1: He had a 3.84 ERA in the regular season on four days of rest (14 starts), but 2.79 on five days (13 starts). If he starts Game 1, he would go again in Game 5 on four days of rest, but if he goes in Games 2 and 6, he gets five days of rest. The Phillies have an interesting decision on how to align their rotation.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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