Passan: Are the Astros inevitable? Inside their pursuit of perfection
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Jeff PassanESPN
NEW YORK — There’s a hardness to this Houston Astros team, one honed by years hearing every insult imaginable, existing as flypaper for vitriol, living a life of perpetual villainy. It’s something that, by now, everyone who wears the uniform understands won’t wane, because the narratives that surround them are more stone carvings than pencil drawings. For all their magnificence, all the brilliant baseball they’ve played in their first seven games this postseason, the Astros, to those outside the Houston metropolitan area, won’t ever be anything other than the worst version of themselves.
Even with a mostly turned-over roster, that will not change. And accepting that — not embracing it but bearing it — has taken this exceptional group of baseball players and supercharged it. The Astros are going back to the World Series for the fourth time in six years. They finished an American League Championship Series sweep of the New York Yankees on Sunday night with a 6-5 victory that booked a date Friday in Houston for Game 1 against the National League champion Philadelphia Phillies.
That they did it by erasing a pair of deficits and scratching out another one-run victory — their fourth in seven games during this undefeated postseason sojourn — fit this team. The Astros have done what any group abiding the weight of its own misdeeds might: absorbed the negativity, internalized it and converted it into fuel. For some, it propelled growth, for others anger. For everyone, it’s something.
“The scorn that we take — this team is mentally strong,” Astros manager Dusty Baker said. “Sometimes when you go through adversity, it makes you stronger.”
Make no mistake, this Houston team is strong — mentally, physically, emotionally. It succeeds in spite of its failures and because of them. One can accept that the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme during the 2017 season sullied their World Series victory while acknowledging that what they’re doing in 2022 — placing themselves on the verge of an all-time postseason run — is wondrous, cognitive dissonance be damned.
Just look at the scores of their seven wins: 8-7, 4-2 and 1-0 in the division series against Seattle, followed by 4-2, 3-2, 5-0 and 6-5 against the Yankees. Six of the seven games taut, tight, capable of going sideways at any moment. But none did. The Astros defused bomb after bomb, stared down situations tense and intense, and emerged on the better end each time. And now they find themselves in rare company, alongside the 1976 Cincinnati Reds and 2007 Colorado Rockies, who went 7-0 out of the gate in the playoffs, and one win shy of the 2014 Kansas City Royals‘ record of eight straight wins to start a postseason.
The red-hot Phillies, fully embracing the team-of-destiny rhetoric that rightly accompanies a group that rode a No. 6 seed to the World Series, are all that stand between the Astros and perfection. That an unbeaten postseason is even a possibility in an October that saw the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers and 101-win Atlanta Braves and New York Mets teams bow out in their first series reinforces the aberrant nature of Houston’s run.
“Today was really the first time I thought about it,” said Lance McCullers Jr., the Astros’ Game 4 starter and one of just five players left from the 2017 team. “I saw a lot of people making a big deal about an undefeated postseason. It really hadn’t hit me. I mean, baseball is so hard. These teams are so good. Like, Seattle, I said it the other day: I don’t think anyone else could beat Seattle. They were playing unbelievable. We come here [to New York] — once again, close games. We just scratch and claw and find a way.”
Since baseball’s postseason expanded in 1969, only the Big Red Machine have run through a postseason blemish-free, back in ’76. In the wild-card era, the closest to flawless were the 2005 Chicago White Sox and 1999 Yankees, who went 11-1. An 11-0 mark remains a moonshot for the Astros, too, with the Phillies primed to start Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in Games 1 and 2 and left-hander Jose Alvarado and right-hander Seranthony Dominguez getting four needed days of rest and a Bryce Harper-led lineup carving pitching staffs for the better part of a month.
But it’s by no means out of the realm of possibility. In seven games, Astros pitchers have held opponents to a .178/.248/.291 line — essentially turning a pair of playoff teams’ lineups into nine hitters who would be demoted to Triple-A for ineptitude. In 33 innings, Astros relievers have allowed two runs — a 0.55 ERA — on 14 hits and 10 walks while striking out 42. Their everyday players have committed just one error, and a borderline one at that, on a bad-hop, in-the-hole backhand from Jose Altuve that precipitated an offline throw. And they’ve managed to score enough to win, despite Altuve’s offensive disappearance and, in the ALCS, New York keeping Yordan Alvarez in check.
Near perfection with room for improvement is a frightening combination, and yet that’s where these Astros are: in their fourth Fall Classic in six years.
“Baseball is wild,” McCullers said. “The reason you don’t see a lot of teams going to so many postseasons, so many league championships, so many World Series is the game isn’t played on paper. The best teams don’t make it every year. They don’t win every year. And somehow, some way we’ve found ourselves the best team in the American League the last few years. We’ve won the American League championship many times. Now, we’ve gotta try to finish it off.”
They couldn’t in 2019, when they lost in seven games to the Washington Nationals, or in 2021, when Atlanta ambushed them and won a championship in six games. This year, though, they’re determined to — for Baker, who is more than 2,000 wins deep into a managing career that still doesn’t include a championship, and for Michael Brantley, the veteran left fielder missing the postseason following shoulder surgery. They want to do it as the ultimate validation for McCullers’ and Justin Verlander‘s returns from arm surgeries. And they want to do it to put to rest the idea that the only way the Astros win championships is by cheating.
Nobody in the Astros’ dugout was banging on a trash can Sunday, and still, there they were, down 3-0 and without a droplet of sweat on their brow. Rookie shortstop Jeremy Peña, the ALCS MVP, launched a three-run home run to tie the game. Later, trailing 5-4 in the seventh inning, the Astros parlayed an error on a potential double-play ball hit by Peña into a deluge: first an Alvarez RBI to score Altuve, then a go-ahead RBI single by Alex Bregman to plate Peña. At that point, Baker turned to Bryan Abreu, who threw a scoreless inning, followed by Rafael Montero and Ryan Pressly, who continue to overwhelm hitters.
This is an idealized version of the Astros — one better than everyone else at run prevention and plenty good with the bat to make that stinginess stand up. They are an exquisitely constructed unit that marries stars with depth and spits on the vagaries of small-sample baseball that define October. And what those in the opposite dugout or their opponents’ stands think about that simply doesn’t matter to them.
“I mean, it’s not like Tupac. It’s not us against the world, you know?” Baker said — and he said it with conviction, perhaps having convinced himself that really is the case, even when evidence suggests otherwise. Part of his job, as manager, is to write his own narrative, to grab a hammer and chisel and etch the Astros a different kind of history. Houston brought him in during the aftermath of the scandal to help forge a new identity, which was an impossible task, really.
Baker, like everyone in the Astros’ clubhouse, takes the most convenient pieces and parts of the past and leverages them to create a new future. Though these Houston Astros aren’t those Houston Astros, they cannot deny that their past informs their present. It helped make them who they are. And that’s the team that the Yankees and Mariners and everyone else in baseball wants to be.
EARLY IN THE 2023 season, Aaron Leanhardt started asking New York Yankees hitters what they needed to perform better. He was a minor league hitting coordinator for the team, and with league-wide batting average the previous year at its lowest point in more than a half-century, Leanhardt approached that spring with a specific question: How, in an era ruled by pitching, could offense keep up?
“Players were frustrated by the fact that pitching had gotten so good,” Leanhardt said.
An MIT-educated physics professor at the University of Michigan for seven years, Leanhardt left academia for athletics specifically to solve these sorts of problems. And as he spoke with more players, the framework of a solution began to reveal itself. With strikeouts at an all-time high, hitters wanted to counter that by making more contact. And the easiest way to do so, Leanhardt surmised, was to increase the size of the barrel on their bat.
Elongating the barrel — the fat part of the bat that generates the hardest and most contact — sounded great in theory. Doing so in practice, though, would increase the weight of the bat and slow down swing speed, negating the gains a larger sweet spot would provide.
Leanhardt started to consider the problem in a different way. Imagine, he told players, every bat has a wood budget — a specific amount of weight (usually 31 or 32 ounces) to be distributed over a specific length. How could they invest a disproportionate amount of that budget on the barrel without throwing off the remainder of the implement?
The answer led to what could be the most consequential development in bat technology since a generation ago when players forsook ash bats for maple. The creation of the bowling pin bat (also known as the torpedo bat) optimizes the most important tool in baseball by redistributing weight from the end of the bat toward the area 6 to 7 inches below its tip, where major league players typically strike the ball. Doing so takes an apparatus that for generations has looked the same and gives it a fun-house-mirror makeover, with the fat part of the bat more toward the handle and the end tapering toward a smaller diameter, like a bowling pin.
The bat had its big debut over the weekend, as the Yankees tied a major league record with 15 home runs over their first three games. Nine of those came from five Yankees who adopted the bowling pin style: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (three), Anthony Volpe (two), Austin Wells (two), Cody Bellinger (one) and Paul Goldschmidt (one). The hullaballoo over the bats started almost immediately after Yankees announcer Michael Kay noted their shape on the broadcast, and by the end of the weekend players around the league were inquiring to bat manufacturers about getting their hands on one.
The Yankees’ barrage of long balls permeated beyond players’ fascination and into the zeitgeist. Some fans and even opposing players wailed fruitlessly about the legality of the bats — Brewers reliever Trevor Megill called the bats “like something used in slow-pitch softball” after watching his teammates surrender home run after home run over the weekend. But the bats abide by Major League Baseball’s collectively bargained bat specifications for shape (round and smooth), barrel size (no larger than 2.61 inches in diameter) and length (a maximum of 42 inches). Most also didn’t realize that the bowling pin bat was used for some of the most consequential hits of 2024 thanks to one of its earliest adaptors.
Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton is owed as much credit as any player for the bowling pin revolution. Leanhardt’s logic behind the bat’s geometry made sense to Stanton, whose average bat velocity of 81.2 mph last year was nearly 3 mph ahead of the second-fastest swinger and more than 9 mph quicker than the average MLB swing. Even with outlier metrics, Stanton gladly embraced a bat that could make his dangerous swing even better — and used it while pummeling seven home runs in 14 postseason games.
TO UNDERSTAND HOW the bowling pin bat works is a lesson in physics. Take a sledgehammer and a broom handle. The sledgehammer will be more difficult to swing because much of its weight is distributed to the tip. The broom handle, meanwhile, can be swung with immense speed but doesn’t contain significant mass. If the length and weight of bats are constants, the distribution of mass is the variable — and Leanhardt conceived of a bat that optimizes both so it can do the most damage.
“This bat is just trying to say: What if we put the mass where the ball is going to hit so that we have an optimized equation of mass and velocity?” said Scott Drake, the president of PFS-TECO, a Wisconsin-based wood products laboratory that inspects all MLB bats to ensure they’re within the regulations. “You’re trying to take a sweet spot and put more mass with that.
“Wood is highly variable,” he added, “and everything is a trade-off.”
In the case of the bowling pin bat, it’s a trade-off hitters using it are willing to make. Because so much of the mass is in the barrel, swings that don’t connect on it produce results often more feeble than those of traditionally tapered models. As Leanhardt said, though, if a ball off the end of a bowling pin shape leaves the bat with an exit velocity of 70 mph compared to 71 mph for the traditional one, both are likely to result in outs. The difference between a 101 mph batted ball and 102 can be a flyout versus a home run.
“That’s the question of the whole wood budget,” said Leanhardt, who left the Yankees after serving as a major league analyst during the 2024 season and currently is the major league field coordinator for the Miami Marlins. “Every penny counts. The fact of the matter is you want your barrels to count the most. You want the most bang for your buck there.”
Turning those principles into reality took buy-in from the entire bat supply chain. Once players bought into Leanhardt’s seedling of an idea, they requested samples from bat manufacturers. Leanhardt worked with a number of MLB’s 41 approved bat makers to make the idea real, and the spec bats were given model numbers that start with BP for bowling pin, though he admits that “torpedo sounds kind of cooler.”
Figuring out the right balance took time. Bowling pin bats take precision to produce. Every fraction of an ounce in bat manufacturing matters. Bats are measured not only on a standard scale but via pendulum-swing tests. The more balanced a bat, the more it oscillates. Traditional bats, their weight distributed disproportionately toward the end, didn’t go back and forth nearly as much.
With relatively lenient regulations from the league allowing manufacturers leeway to create products as long as they stay within the regulations, the new — and perhaps better — mousetrap was born. Stanton’s success was the ultimate proof of concept, and manufacturers came to spring training this year with bowling pin models for players to try in games.
“There’s new pitches getting invented every year,” said Minnesota Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers, who used a bowling pin model in the first three games this year and went 1-for-8. “We’re just swinging the same broomstick we’ve swung for the last 100 years.”
Well, similar at least. Playing in an era when the average fastball velocity was an estimated 10 mph slower than the current average of around 95 mph, Babe Ruth swung a 36-inch, 44-ounce bat. As pitch velocity increased in the decades since, players shaved ounces off bats — tools to ensure they had the requisite speed to catch up with pitches.
“The bat is such a unique tool,” Jeffers said. “You look at the history of the game, and they used to swing telephone poles. Now you try to optimize it, and it feels like some branches are starting to fall for us on the hitting side of things.”
Jeffers, who has spent countless time searching for ways to counterbalance the technological revolution that helped create a generation of pitchers with the best stuff ever seen, swung a bowling pin model from manufacturer B45 in batting practice one day this spring and proceeded to order a batch that arrived during the final two weeks of spring training. Around the same time, Chisholm received his new bowling pin bats and was struck by how he couldn’t tell the difference from his traditional model.
“I mean, it still felt like my bat,” Chisholm told reporters Sunday, echoing Jeffers’ sentiment that bowling pin varieties swing similarly to their standard counterparts. “I hit the ball at the barrel, feel comfortable in the box. I don’t know what else to tell you. I don’t know the science of it, I’m just playing baseball.”
The science is multifold. Beyond the potential increases in exit velocity from the increased mass in the barrel, the weight distribution toward the knob should promote faster swings. Among the five Yankees who have used the bat, all have seen bat-velocity increases year over year, with Volpe up more than 3 mph, Bellinger up 2.5, Wells 2, Chisholm 1.1 and Goldschmidt — an inveterate tinkerer who has also used bats with hockey-puck-shaped knobs — 0.3 mph.
“Credit to any of the players who were willing to listen to me, because it’s crazy,” Leanhardt said. “Listening to me describe it is sometimes even crazier. It’s a long-running project, and I’m happy for the guys that bought into it.”
Because the data — on bat velocity as well as effectiveness — is of such a limited sample, nobody is yet proclaiming that the bowling pin bat will unquestionably revolutionize the game. But more bowling pins will be showing up in major league games soon. Leanhardt said his new team, the Marlins, will feature players using the bat in games. Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero laced an RBI single Sunday with a bowling pin model. In addition to the Yankees and Marlins, the Chicago Cubs and Baltimore Orioles are seen throughout the industry as the teams that have invested the most time and money researching bat geometry and optimization.
One player who does not plan on using the bowling pin model said multiple teammates plan to at least try one in batting practice after the Yankees’ nine-homer outburst Saturday. How many eventually adopt it as their full-time piece depends on feel as much as success. Comfort with a bat is vital for it to go from BP to a big league game, and in a sport where advantages don’t stay secret very long, New York’s might wind up lasting all of one weekend.
“There’s going to be a lot more teams wanting to swing them,” Jeffers said, “because of what the Yankees did this weekend.”
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