Passan: Are the Astros inevitable? Inside their pursuit of perfection
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Jeff PassanESPN
NEW YORK — There’s a hardness to this Houston Astros team, one honed by years hearing every insult imaginable, existing as flypaper for vitriol, living a life of perpetual villainy. It’s something that, by now, everyone who wears the uniform understands won’t wane, because the narratives that surround them are more stone carvings than pencil drawings. For all their magnificence, all the brilliant baseball they’ve played in their first seven games this postseason, the Astros, to those outside the Houston metropolitan area, won’t ever be anything other than the worst version of themselves.
Even with a mostly turned-over roster, that will not change. And accepting that — not embracing it but bearing it — has taken this exceptional group of baseball players and supercharged it. The Astros are going back to the World Series for the fourth time in six years. They finished an American League Championship Series sweep of the New York Yankees on Sunday night with a 6-5 victory that booked a date Friday in Houston for Game 1 against the National League champion Philadelphia Phillies.
That they did it by erasing a pair of deficits and scratching out another one-run victory — their fourth in seven games during this undefeated postseason sojourn — fit this team. The Astros have done what any group abiding the weight of its own misdeeds might: absorbed the negativity, internalized it and converted it into fuel. For some, it propelled growth, for others anger. For everyone, it’s something.
“The scorn that we take — this team is mentally strong,” Astros manager Dusty Baker said. “Sometimes when you go through adversity, it makes you stronger.”
Make no mistake, this Houston team is strong — mentally, physically, emotionally. It succeeds in spite of its failures and because of them. One can accept that the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme during the 2017 season sullied their World Series victory while acknowledging that what they’re doing in 2022 — placing themselves on the verge of an all-time postseason run — is wondrous, cognitive dissonance be damned.
Just look at the scores of their seven wins: 8-7, 4-2 and 1-0 in the division series against Seattle, followed by 4-2, 3-2, 5-0 and 6-5 against the Yankees. Six of the seven games taut, tight, capable of going sideways at any moment. But none did. The Astros defused bomb after bomb, stared down situations tense and intense, and emerged on the better end each time. And now they find themselves in rare company, alongside the 1976 Cincinnati Reds and 2007 Colorado Rockies, who went 7-0 out of the gate in the playoffs, and one win shy of the 2014 Kansas City Royals‘ record of eight straight wins to start a postseason.
The red-hot Phillies, fully embracing the team-of-destiny rhetoric that rightly accompanies a group that rode a No. 6 seed to the World Series, are all that stand between the Astros and perfection. That an unbeaten postseason is even a possibility in an October that saw the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers and 101-win Atlanta Braves and New York Mets teams bow out in their first series reinforces the aberrant nature of Houston’s run.
“Today was really the first time I thought about it,” said Lance McCullers Jr., the Astros’ Game 4 starter and one of just five players left from the 2017 team. “I saw a lot of people making a big deal about an undefeated postseason. It really hadn’t hit me. I mean, baseball is so hard. These teams are so good. Like, Seattle, I said it the other day: I don’t think anyone else could beat Seattle. They were playing unbelievable. We come here [to New York] — once again, close games. We just scratch and claw and find a way.”
Since baseball’s postseason expanded in 1969, only the Big Red Machine have run through a postseason blemish-free, back in ’76. In the wild-card era, the closest to flawless were the 2005 Chicago White Sox and 1999 Yankees, who went 11-1. An 11-0 mark remains a moonshot for the Astros, too, with the Phillies primed to start Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in Games 1 and 2 and left-hander Jose Alvarado and right-hander Seranthony Dominguez getting four needed days of rest and a Bryce Harper-led lineup carving pitching staffs for the better part of a month.
But it’s by no means out of the realm of possibility. In seven games, Astros pitchers have held opponents to a .178/.248/.291 line — essentially turning a pair of playoff teams’ lineups into nine hitters who would be demoted to Triple-A for ineptitude. In 33 innings, Astros relievers have allowed two runs — a 0.55 ERA — on 14 hits and 10 walks while striking out 42. Their everyday players have committed just one error, and a borderline one at that, on a bad-hop, in-the-hole backhand from Jose Altuve that precipitated an offline throw. And they’ve managed to score enough to win, despite Altuve’s offensive disappearance and, in the ALCS, New York keeping Yordan Alvarez in check.
Near perfection with room for improvement is a frightening combination, and yet that’s where these Astros are: in their fourth Fall Classic in six years.
“Baseball is wild,” McCullers said. “The reason you don’t see a lot of teams going to so many postseasons, so many league championships, so many World Series is the game isn’t played on paper. The best teams don’t make it every year. They don’t win every year. And somehow, some way we’ve found ourselves the best team in the American League the last few years. We’ve won the American League championship many times. Now, we’ve gotta try to finish it off.”
They couldn’t in 2019, when they lost in seven games to the Washington Nationals, or in 2021, when Atlanta ambushed them and won a championship in six games. This year, though, they’re determined to — for Baker, who is more than 2,000 wins deep into a managing career that still doesn’t include a championship, and for Michael Brantley, the veteran left fielder missing the postseason following shoulder surgery. They want to do it as the ultimate validation for McCullers’ and Justin Verlander‘s returns from arm surgeries. And they want to do it to put to rest the idea that the only way the Astros win championships is by cheating.
Nobody in the Astros’ dugout was banging on a trash can Sunday, and still, there they were, down 3-0 and without a droplet of sweat on their brow. Rookie shortstop Jeremy Peña, the ALCS MVP, launched a three-run home run to tie the game. Later, trailing 5-4 in the seventh inning, the Astros parlayed an error on a potential double-play ball hit by Peña into a deluge: first an Alvarez RBI to score Altuve, then a go-ahead RBI single by Alex Bregman to plate Peña. At that point, Baker turned to Bryan Abreu, who threw a scoreless inning, followed by Rafael Montero and Ryan Pressly, who continue to overwhelm hitters.
This is an idealized version of the Astros — one better than everyone else at run prevention and plenty good with the bat to make that stinginess stand up. They are an exquisitely constructed unit that marries stars with depth and spits on the vagaries of small-sample baseball that define October. And what those in the opposite dugout or their opponents’ stands think about that simply doesn’t matter to them.
“I mean, it’s not like Tupac. It’s not us against the world, you know?” Baker said — and he said it with conviction, perhaps having convinced himself that really is the case, even when evidence suggests otherwise. Part of his job, as manager, is to write his own narrative, to grab a hammer and chisel and etch the Astros a different kind of history. Houston brought him in during the aftermath of the scandal to help forge a new identity, which was an impossible task, really.
Baker, like everyone in the Astros’ clubhouse, takes the most convenient pieces and parts of the past and leverages them to create a new future. Though these Houston Astros aren’t those Houston Astros, they cannot deny that their past informs their present. It helped make them who they are. And that’s the team that the Yankees and Mariners and everyone else in baseball wants to be.
The final day of the regular season is exactly two weeks away, but the race for the final Eastern Conference wild-card spot remains open for five contenders.
Two of those teams are in action Thursday night. The Montreal Canadiens host the Boston Bruins (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+), and the Columbus Blue Jackets welcome the Colorado Avalanche (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
As play begins Thursday, the Canadiens hold the second wild card with 79 points and 25 regulation wins through 74 games; the New York Rangers are tied in standings points (and ahead in RW, with 32), but have played more games. The Blue Jackets are two behind in points, and one behind in regulation wins. The idle Detroit Red Wings (75 points, 26 RW) and New York Islanders (74 points, 25 RW) round out the quintet.
The Stathletes projection model likes the Canadiens’ chances to make the playoffs the most, at 51.7%, followed by the Blue Jackets (25.5%), Rangers (19.0%), Islanders (3.1%) and Red Wings (2.3%). How will this all shake out? Thursday’s pair of games featuring these teams will provide our next set of clues.
With the regular season ending April 17, we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Florida Panthers
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 St. Louis Blues
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers
Thursday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m.
Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7:30 p.m.
Pittsburgh Penguins at St. Louis Blues, 8 p.m.
Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Los Angeles Kings at Utah Hockey Club, 9 p.m.
Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames, 9:30 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+)
Wednesday’s scoreboard
New York Rangers 5, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Washington Capitals 1
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Florida Panthers 2
Colorado Avalanche 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (SO)
Seattle Kraken 5, Vancouver Canucks 0
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 96
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 7
Points pace: 105.0
Next game: vs. CBJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 103.1
Next game: @ OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 92
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 7
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: @ OTT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 93.1
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 87.5
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 51.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: vs. CAR (Friday)
Playoff chances: 2.3%
Tragic number: 13
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 77.6
Next game: vs. TB (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 8
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 75.4
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 5
Metro Division
Points: 105
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 7
Points pace: 114.8
Next game: vs. CHI (Friday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 96
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 106.4
Next game: @ DET (Friday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 6
Points pace: 93.9
Next game: vs. NYR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 86.4
Next game: @ NJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 19%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 86.5
Next game: vs. COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 25.5%
Tragic number: 17
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: vs. MIN (Friday)
Playoff chances: 3.1%
Tragic number: 12
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 77.6
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 7
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 6
Points pace: 76.6
Next game: @ MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 5
Central Division
Points: 106
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 7
Points pace: 115.9
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 102
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 113.0
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 96
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 6
Points pace: 103.6
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 6
Points pace: 96.0
Next game: @ NYI (Friday)
Playoff chances: 93.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 6
Points pace: 96.0
Next game: vs. PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 96.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 87.5
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.7%
Tragic number: 6
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 67.8
Next game: @ DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 56.9
Next game: @ WSH (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 108.6
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 103.1
Next game: @ UTA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 100.8
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 90.9
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 6.4%
Tragic number: 10
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 88.6
Next game: vs. ANA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 2.4%
Tragic number: 7
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: @ CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: 2
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 6
Points pace: 75.5
Next game: @ SJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 55.4
Next game: vs. EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Note: An “x” means that the team has clinched a playoff berth. An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 32
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 26
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Alden Gonzalez
LOS ANGELES — Aside from his ability to pitch and hit and stretch the boundaries of imagination, Shohei Ohtani has displayed another singular trait in his time in the major leagues: an ability to meet the moment. Or, perhaps, for the moment to meet him.
And so on Wednesday night, with his Los Angeles Dodgers looking to stay unbeaten, the score tied in the bottom of the ninth, and more than 50,000 fans standing and clenching the Ohtani bobbleheads they lined up hours in advance for, Ohtani approached the batter’s box — and his teammates expected greatness.
“He’s going to end this right here,” Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy said he thought to himself.
“We knew,” starting pitcher Blake Snell said. “It’s just what he does.”
Validation came instantly. Ohtani stayed back on a first-pitch changeup from Raisel Iglesias near the outside corner and shot it toward straightaway center field, 399 feet away, for a walk-off home run, sending the Dodgers to a 6-5, come-from-behind victory over the reeling Atlanta Braves.
“I don’t think anybody didn’t expect him to hit a walk-off home run there,” Dodgers utility man Tommy Edman said. “It’s just a question of where he’d hit it.”
The Dodgers are now 8-0, topping the 1933 New York Yankees of Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth for the longest winning streak to begin a season for a reigning champion. The Braves, meanwhile, are 0-7, the type of record no team has ever recovered from to make the playoffs. And Ohtani, with three home runs and a 1.126 OPS this season, just keeps meeting moments.
“He’s pretty good, huh?” Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez said. “It’s Shohei. He’s going to do that. He’s going to do things better than that.”
On Aug. 23 last year, Ohtani reached the 40/40 club with a walk-off grand slam. Five days later, the Dodgers staged a second giveaway of his bobblehead — one that saw his now-famous dog, Decoy, handle the ceremonial first pitch — and Ohtani led off with a home run. On Sept. 19, Ohtani clinched his first postseason berth and ascended into the unprecedented 50/50 club with one of the greatest single-game performances in baseball history — six hits, three homers, two steals and 10 RBIs. Barely two weeks later, he homered in his first playoff game.
When Ohtani came up on Wednesday, he had what he described as a simple approach.
“I was looking for a really good pitch to hit,” Ohtani said through an interpreter. “If I didn’t get a good pitch to hit, I was willing to walk.”
Of course, though, he got a good pitch.
And, of course, he sent it out.
“You just feel that he’s going to do something special,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “And I just like the way he’s not pressing. He’s in the strike zone, and when he does that, there’s just no one better.”
The Dodgers began their much-anticipated season with a couple of breezy wins over the Chicago Cubs from Japan, even though Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman did not play in them. They returned home, brought iconic rapper Ice Cube out to present the World Series trophy on one afternoon, received their rings on another and swept a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers. Then came the Braves, and the Dodgers swept them, too — even though Freeman, nursing an ankle injury caused from slipping in the shower, didn’t participate.
The Dodgers already have two walk-offs and six comeback wins this season.
Wednesday’s effort left Roberts “a little dumbfounded.”
A nightmarish start defensively, highlighted by two errant throws from Muncy, spoiled Snell’s start and put them behind 5-0 after the first inning and a half. But the Dodgers kept inching closer. They trailed by just two in the eighth and put runners on second and third with two out. Muncy came to bat with his batting average at just .083. He had used the ballyhooed “Torpedo” bat for his first three plate appearances, didn’t like how it altered his swing plane, grabbed his usual bat for a showdown against Iglesias and laced a game-tying double into the right-center-field gap.
An inning later, Ohtani ended it.
“Overall, not just tonight, there is a really good vibe within the team,” Ohtani said after recording his fourth career walk-off hit. “I just think that’s allowing us to come back in these games to win.”
The Dodgers’ 8-0 start has allowed them to stay just ahead of the 7-0 San Diego Padres and the 5-1 San Francisco Giants in the National League West. Tack on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4-2) and the Colorado Rockies (1-4), and this marks the first time in the divisional era that an entire division has combined for at least 25 wins and no more than seven losses, according to ESPN Research. The Dodgers’ and Padres’ starts mark just the fifth season in major league history with multiple teams starting 7-0 or better, and the first time since 2003.
The Dodgers famously overcame a 2-1 series deficit to vanquish the Padres in the NL Division Series last year, then rode that fight to their first full-season championship since 1988.
That fight hasn’t let up.
“It feels like this clubhouse is carrying a little bit of the attitude we had last year that we’re never out of a game and we’re resilient, and we’ve been carrying it into this season,” Muncy said. “It’s been fun to watch. The guys don’t give up. Bad things have happened, and no one’s really been down or out on themselves. Everyone’s just, ‘All right, here we go, next inning, let’s get after it.’ The whole team, top to bottom, has been doing that. It’s been making it really, really fun to play.”
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