2022 World Series: Astros or Phillies? Who will be MVP? Predictions, inside intel and odds
It’s 2022 World Series time in Houston!
Thanks to the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies making short work of their opponents in the previous round, baseball fans had to go four October days without playoff baseball. But the wait is finally over!
With the first pitch of World Series Game 1 scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET on Friday night at Minute Maid Park, we go deep on the players and matchups that matter most for both teams — and asked our ESPN MLB experts to make their picks for who will win the series, how many games it will take and who will be the MVP of this Fall Classic.
Jump to: Astros | Phillies | Our predictions
Houston Astros
61.5% chance of winning | Caesars odds: -190
What’s on the line for the Astros: No team has swept the postseason in the wild-card era, with the 1999 Yankees and 2005 White Sox coming closest by going 11-1. If the Astros do become the first to do so — on top of 106 regular-season wins, six consecutive ALCS appearances and three other trips to the World Series since 2017 — they go down as an all-time great team and, yes, a modern-day dynasty. And for manager Dusty Baker, a spot in the Hall of Fame gets solidified with a long-awaited World Series title. — David Schoenfield
Three reasons Houston can win
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The bullpen: The Astros’ relievers led the majors in ERA during the regular season and have been flat-out dominant in the postseason. Baker has as many as five lights-out, high-leverage arms to deploy late in games. The Phillies can’t match this type of depth.
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The defensive advantage: At some point, one would think, the Phillies’ defense will cost them in a big moment. Philadelphia has made the routine plays as a unit recently, but the Astros, who had the second-most outs above average in the sport this year, are far superior in the field.
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Moxie: This is the Astros’ fourth World Series appearance in six years, they’ve gone undefeated throughout these playoffs, and they have a perfect mix of veterans performing at elite levels and young players coming into their own. This just feels like the Astros’ time — a time when they’ll truly distance themselves from scandal. — Alden Gonzalez
Where the Astros are vulnerable: Houston is as close to a perfect team as you’ll find in MLB right now, so the only thing you can point to is the lack of a platoon-dominant lefty to match against Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper in a high-leverage spot.
The Astros’ have righty relievers to excel in those situations, so painting this as a true weak spot might be a stretch and they could always roster veteran lefty Will Smith to use in a specialized role. — Bradford Doolittle
Jeff Passan’s inside intel
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Jose Altuve has popped out to an infielder in an almost-inconceivable six of 35 at-bats this postseason, and the commonalities are velocity and verticality. Of the six, five have come on fastballs, all at 95.2 mph or harder, and five have been high, near the top of the strike zone — four heaters and one changeup. Half of them came with two strikes and Altuve protecting, but the other three were on 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 counts. “I’d throw everything hard and high,” one scout said. “Make him show he can hit it.”
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“Cristian Javier has the best fastball of any starter in baseball,” one evaluator says, and when reminded that it averaged only 94 mph and he might not have the best on his team — hello, Justin Verlander — he insisted: “It’s better.” He may have a point. The expected batting average on Javier’s fastball during the regular season was a big-league-low .181. And that’s with him throwing the pitch 60% of the time, the fifth-highest rate among those with at least 1,000 fastballs this season. In the 16 at-bats that have ended on a Javier fastball this postseason, batters are hitting .077/.250/.154 against it.
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The Astros need to spin to win. Against fastballs and cutters this postseason, the Phillies are hitting .273/.338/.517. And on sliders, curveballs, changeups and splitters, it’s .184/.240/.333. Well, it’s a good thing the Astros’ pitchers feature an array of off-speed stuff. As good as their fastballs are — their softer stuff made Yankees and Mariners hitters look silly to the tune of a .169/.226/.250 slash line.
Philadelphia Phillies
38.5% chance of winning | Caesars odds: +170
What’s on the line for the Phillies: In a loaded National League with three 100-win teams, this would be perhaps the most surprising World Series title run of the entire wild-card era. For Harper, hitting .419 with five home runs in the playoffs, it’s a chance to finish off one of the best individual postseasons of this era. And for executive Dave Dombrowski, a World Series title with a third different team would perhaps cement his status as just the sixth general manager to get elected to the Hall of Fame. — Schoenfield
Three reasons Phillies can win
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The lineup: The Phillies’ offense is at its peak right now. Their slugging percentage and OPS are way up over the regular season — all earned by beating playoff pitching. Simply put: Throw out the regular season, the Phillies can outslug the Astros at the plate.
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The ballpark: The Phillies are 5-0 at home this postseason and they don’t believe that’s a coincidence. This isn’t about hostile crowds — the Astros have dealt with those for years — this is about what the fans do for the home players. Rhys Hoskins called it a difference-maker.
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Mojo: The Phillies have been tested in a way the Astros have not this season. If the Astros take any part of the Phillies’ game lightly, they’ll find out what three other teams have learned this postseason: Philadelphia isn’t afraid of anyone. Philadelphia might be a No. 6 seed on paper, but right now it’s far from it on the field right now. — Jesse Rogers
Where the Phillies are vulnerable: No one can match Houston’s pitching depth, but Philly’s shortfall in this area could get it in a couple of specific ways. First, there isn’t a great option for the Phillies in terms of a Game 4 starter, whereas the Astros have nothing but great options for that contest.
Second, there isn’t really a particularly attractive option in the bullpen to use against Yordan Alvarez, should he come up in a late-and-close situation with runners on base. — Doolittle
Jeff Passan’s inside intel
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If you want to neutralize Harper, evaluators say he has shown a vulnerable spot since returning from his broken thumb: middle and high fastballs on the inner-third of the plate. Don’t give him a heater on the outer half, as Robert Suarez learned, it’s Harper’s nitro zone. But with how teams are pitching him — among Phillies regulars, only Bryson Stott has seen fewer breaking balls — it’s clear they see fastballs as a potential weakness. The only issue: Pitchers haven’t hit their locations — and Harper has pounded fastballs and sinkers that don’t challenge him inside.
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Here, evaluators say, is how you know Schwarber is locked in: In the NLCS, he didn’t swing and miss on a single pitch in the rulebook strike zone. Over the previous two series, he whiffed on five. Further, after putting three pitches out of the zone in play during the wild-card series and NLDS, he didn’t put one in play in the NLCS. Schwarber leads all players this postseason in walks because of the NLCS, when he watched 47 of the 94 pitches thrown at him and drew six walks. Over the previous two series? He saw the same 94 pitches but stared at just 32.
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One pitch could determine the fate of the Phillies. “Aaron Nola‘s gloveside fastball,” according to one scout. Considering that it’s typically one of the best pitches in baseball, Nola needs to get it right for Game 1. In the regular season, batters hit .177/.227/.296 against fastballs away to right-handers and inside on left-handers. In three games this postseason, over the 16 hitters whose at-bats have ended on the pitch, it’s .267/.313/.733, including a pair of home runs after allowing just six on gloveside heaters that ended 217 regular-season at-bats.
Our Predictions
Houston Astros (12 votes)
Philadelphia Phillies (2 votes)
How many games?
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Astros in 6 (7 votes)
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Astros in 5 (3 votes)
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Astros in 7 (2 votes)
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Phillies in 6 (1 vote)
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Phillies in 7 (1 vote)
MVP: Justin Verlander (3 votes); Yordan Alvarez (5 votes); Jeremy Pena (1 vote); Alex Bregman (1 vote); Kyle Tucker (1 vote); Jose Altuve (1 vote); Bryce Harper (1 vote), Zack Wheeler (1 vote)
Why did you pick the Phillies? Hey, I’m the guy who texted my editor at the start of the postseason and said don’t be surprised if the Astros run the table. OK, I meant to send that! So how can I switch to the Phillies now? I’m a believer in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. I’m a believer in Kyle Schwarber, who hit three home runs in the NLCS. I’m suddenly a believer in Seranthony Dominguez. And, I hate say this, I believe Astros manager Dusty Baker will mess up a key decision at some point (like leaving a starter in too long rather than going to his deep bullpen).
Mostly, however, I’m a believer in Harper. The World Series record for home runs is five, shared by George Springer (2017), Chase Utley (2009) and Reggie Jackson (1977). Harper is going to break that record. — Schoenfield
Why are the Astros such an overwhelming choice? Some New York Yankees fans might prefer to blame the manager, the general manager, Josh Donaldson or a videotape of the 2004 playoffs for the sweep at the hands of the Astros, but really, that’s ignoring the obvious: The Houston pitching is absurdly great.
After leading the American League in ERA by nearly half a run during the regular season, the Astros have a 1.88 ERA in this postseason, have held opposing hitters to a .178 average, and are averaging 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. It’s as if the whole staff is working at a peak Pedro Martinez. The Phillies’ lineup is loaded with sluggers and experience, but they can’t overcome that dominant group. — Buster Olney
Following a busy, 10-game Tuesday night in the NHL, it’s a relatively quiet five-game evening on Wednesday.
Nevertheless, there are playoff and draft lottery ramifications aplenty, so let’s hit all five matchups rapid fire:
Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning
7 p.m. (ESPN+)
While the Leafs appear destined for a top two spot in the Atlantic, they can still be caught by the Lightning for the No. 1 seed. If the Lightning are going to do it, a game like this is a prime opportunity to make up ground with a regulation win.
Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers
7:30 p.m. (TNT)
The Rangers lost their two most recent games by a combined score of 9-1, and their playoff hopes are dwindling quickly. A win over the Flyers would be a good step in potentially climbing back into the playoffs. Philly is fourth in the draft lottery order heading into this matchup — and bear in mind they also own the first-round picks of the Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers.
San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild
8 p.m. (ESPN+)
Speaking of occupying a great place in the draft lottery order, the Sharks are No. 1, and are four points clear of the Chicago Blackhawks for that spot. The Wild are holding on to the second Western wild-card spot, and enter the evening four points up on the Flames.
St. Louis Blues at Edmonton Oilers
10 p.m. (TNT)
The Blues’ 12-game winning streak came to a halt on Monday at the hands of the Winnipeg Jets, and they’ll be looking to start another one here against the Oilers. St. Louis is in the first wild-card position, two points ahead of the Wild. The Oilers appear to be a lock for the No. 3 spot in the Pacific, bringing on a first-round matchup with the Los Angeles Kings for the fourth straight postseason.
Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks
10 p.m. (ESPN+)
Calgary’s chances to jump into wild-card position have faded recently, so getting two points out of this game is crucial. As noted above, they are four points back of the Wild for that final spot. The Ducks enter the contest in the No. 8 spot in the lottery order, right in a jumble of teams between 73 and 76 points, so they can move up pretty easily based on their performance in the final five games.
With the regular season ending April 17, we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Florida Panthers
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Minnesota Wild
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 St. Louis Blues
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers
Wednesday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m.
St. Louis Blues at Edmonton Oilers, 10 p.m. (TNT)
Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks, 10 p.m.
Tuesday’s scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres 3, Carolina Hurricanes 0
Montreal Canadiens 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Florida Panthers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Boston Bruins 7, New Jersey Devils 2
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Chicago Blackhawks 0
Nashville Predators 7, New York Islanders 6 (OT)
Vancouver Canucks 6, Dallas Stars 5 (OT)
Utah Hockey Club 7, Seattle Kraken 1
Colorado Avalanche 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (SO)
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 5
Points pace: 104.4
Next game: @ TB (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 96
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 5
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: vs. TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 4
Points pace: 98.8
Next game: vs. DET (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 90
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 4
Points pace: 94.6
Next game: vs. MTL (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 4
Points pace: 91.5
Next game: @ OTT (Friday)
Playoff chances: 89.2%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 84.1
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 5.5%
Tragic number: 2
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 80.9
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: E
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 75.8
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Metro Division
Points: 107
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 5
Points pace: 114.0
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 96
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 5
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: @ WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 4
Points pace: 93.6
Next game: vs. PIT (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 84.1
Next game: vs. PHI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 1.9%
Tragic number: 3
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 84.1
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 3%
Tragic number: 2
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 84.1
Next game: vs. BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.5%
Tragic number: 2
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 78.9
Next game: @ NJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 75.6
Next game: @ NYR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Central Division
Points: 110
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 4
Points pace: 115.6
Next game: @ DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 106
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 4
Points pace: 111.4
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 100
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 3
Points pace: 103.8
Next game: vs. VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 3
Points pace: 96.5
Next game: @ EDM (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 97.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 4
Points pace: 95.7
Next game: vs. SJ (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 92.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 88.3
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 1
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 67.3
Next game: @ UTA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 56.8
Next game: @ BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 103
Regulation wins: 43
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 4
Points pace: 108.3
Next game: vs. SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 5
Points pace: 103.3
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 5
Points pace: 99.0
Next game: vs. STL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 92.7
Next game: @ ANA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 10.9%
Tragic number: 6
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 89.4
Next game: @ COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 2
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 80.9
Next game: vs. CGY (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 76.8
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 53.3
Next game: @ MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Note: A “y” means that the team has clinched the division title. An “x” means that the team has clinched a playoff berth. An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 32
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 28
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