2022 World Series: Astros or Phillies? Who will be MVP? Predictions, inside intel and odds
It’s 2022 World Series time in Houston!
Thanks to the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies making short work of their opponents in the previous round, baseball fans had to go four October days without playoff baseball. But the wait is finally over!
With the first pitch of World Series Game 1 scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET on Friday night at Minute Maid Park, we go deep on the players and matchups that matter most for both teams — and asked our ESPN MLB experts to make their picks for who will win the series, how many games it will take and who will be the MVP of this Fall Classic.
Jump to: Astros | Phillies | Our predictions
Houston Astros
61.5% chance of winning | Caesars odds: -190
What’s on the line for the Astros: No team has swept the postseason in the wild-card era, with the 1999 Yankees and 2005 White Sox coming closest by going 11-1. If the Astros do become the first to do so — on top of 106 regular-season wins, six consecutive ALCS appearances and three other trips to the World Series since 2017 — they go down as an all-time great team and, yes, a modern-day dynasty. And for manager Dusty Baker, a spot in the Hall of Fame gets solidified with a long-awaited World Series title. — David Schoenfield
Three reasons Houston can win
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The bullpen: The Astros’ relievers led the majors in ERA during the regular season and have been flat-out dominant in the postseason. Baker has as many as five lights-out, high-leverage arms to deploy late in games. The Phillies can’t match this type of depth.
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The defensive advantage: At some point, one would think, the Phillies’ defense will cost them in a big moment. Philadelphia has made the routine plays as a unit recently, but the Astros, who had the second-most outs above average in the sport this year, are far superior in the field.
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Moxie: This is the Astros’ fourth World Series appearance in six years, they’ve gone undefeated throughout these playoffs, and they have a perfect mix of veterans performing at elite levels and young players coming into their own. This just feels like the Astros’ time — a time when they’ll truly distance themselves from scandal. — Alden Gonzalez
Where the Astros are vulnerable: Houston is as close to a perfect team as you’ll find in MLB right now, so the only thing you can point to is the lack of a platoon-dominant lefty to match against Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper in a high-leverage spot.
The Astros’ have righty relievers to excel in those situations, so painting this as a true weak spot might be a stretch and they could always roster veteran lefty Will Smith to use in a specialized role. — Bradford Doolittle
Jeff Passan’s inside intel
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Jose Altuve has popped out to an infielder in an almost-inconceivable six of 35 at-bats this postseason, and the commonalities are velocity and verticality. Of the six, five have come on fastballs, all at 95.2 mph or harder, and five have been high, near the top of the strike zone — four heaters and one changeup. Half of them came with two strikes and Altuve protecting, but the other three were on 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 counts. “I’d throw everything hard and high,” one scout said. “Make him show he can hit it.”
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“Cristian Javier has the best fastball of any starter in baseball,” one evaluator says, and when reminded that it averaged only 94 mph and he might not have the best on his team — hello, Justin Verlander — he insisted: “It’s better.” He may have a point. The expected batting average on Javier’s fastball during the regular season was a big-league-low .181. And that’s with him throwing the pitch 60% of the time, the fifth-highest rate among those with at least 1,000 fastballs this season. In the 16 at-bats that have ended on a Javier fastball this postseason, batters are hitting .077/.250/.154 against it.
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The Astros need to spin to win. Against fastballs and cutters this postseason, the Phillies are hitting .273/.338/.517. And on sliders, curveballs, changeups and splitters, it’s .184/.240/.333. Well, it’s a good thing the Astros’ pitchers feature an array of off-speed stuff. As good as their fastballs are — their softer stuff made Yankees and Mariners hitters look silly to the tune of a .169/.226/.250 slash line.
Philadelphia Phillies
38.5% chance of winning | Caesars odds: +170
What’s on the line for the Phillies: In a loaded National League with three 100-win teams, this would be perhaps the most surprising World Series title run of the entire wild-card era. For Harper, hitting .419 with five home runs in the playoffs, it’s a chance to finish off one of the best individual postseasons of this era. And for executive Dave Dombrowski, a World Series title with a third different team would perhaps cement his status as just the sixth general manager to get elected to the Hall of Fame. — Schoenfield
Three reasons Phillies can win
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The lineup: The Phillies’ offense is at its peak right now. Their slugging percentage and OPS are way up over the regular season — all earned by beating playoff pitching. Simply put: Throw out the regular season, the Phillies can outslug the Astros at the plate.
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The ballpark: The Phillies are 5-0 at home this postseason and they don’t believe that’s a coincidence. This isn’t about hostile crowds — the Astros have dealt with those for years — this is about what the fans do for the home players. Rhys Hoskins called it a difference-maker.
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Mojo: The Phillies have been tested in a way the Astros have not this season. If the Astros take any part of the Phillies’ game lightly, they’ll find out what three other teams have learned this postseason: Philadelphia isn’t afraid of anyone. Philadelphia might be a No. 6 seed on paper, but right now it’s far from it on the field right now. — Jesse Rogers
Where the Phillies are vulnerable: No one can match Houston’s pitching depth, but Philly’s shortfall in this area could get it in a couple of specific ways. First, there isn’t a great option for the Phillies in terms of a Game 4 starter, whereas the Astros have nothing but great options for that contest.
Second, there isn’t really a particularly attractive option in the bullpen to use against Yordan Alvarez, should he come up in a late-and-close situation with runners on base. — Doolittle
Jeff Passan’s inside intel
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If you want to neutralize Harper, evaluators say he has shown a vulnerable spot since returning from his broken thumb: middle and high fastballs on the inner-third of the plate. Don’t give him a heater on the outer half, as Robert Suarez learned, it’s Harper’s nitro zone. But with how teams are pitching him — among Phillies regulars, only Bryson Stott has seen fewer breaking balls — it’s clear they see fastballs as a potential weakness. The only issue: Pitchers haven’t hit their locations — and Harper has pounded fastballs and sinkers that don’t challenge him inside.
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Here, evaluators say, is how you know Schwarber is locked in: In the NLCS, he didn’t swing and miss on a single pitch in the rulebook strike zone. Over the previous two series, he whiffed on five. Further, after putting three pitches out of the zone in play during the wild-card series and NLDS, he didn’t put one in play in the NLCS. Schwarber leads all players this postseason in walks because of the NLCS, when he watched 47 of the 94 pitches thrown at him and drew six walks. Over the previous two series? He saw the same 94 pitches but stared at just 32.
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One pitch could determine the fate of the Phillies. “Aaron Nola‘s gloveside fastball,” according to one scout. Considering that it’s typically one of the best pitches in baseball, Nola needs to get it right for Game 1. In the regular season, batters hit .177/.227/.296 against fastballs away to right-handers and inside on left-handers. In three games this postseason, over the 16 hitters whose at-bats have ended on the pitch, it’s .267/.313/.733, including a pair of home runs after allowing just six on gloveside heaters that ended 217 regular-season at-bats.
Our Predictions
Houston Astros (12 votes)
Philadelphia Phillies (2 votes)
How many games?
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Astros in 6 (7 votes)
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Astros in 5 (3 votes)
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Astros in 7 (2 votes)
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Phillies in 6 (1 vote)
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Phillies in 7 (1 vote)
MVP: Justin Verlander (3 votes); Yordan Alvarez (5 votes); Jeremy Pena (1 vote); Alex Bregman (1 vote); Kyle Tucker (1 vote); Jose Altuve (1 vote); Bryce Harper (1 vote), Zack Wheeler (1 vote)
Why did you pick the Phillies? Hey, I’m the guy who texted my editor at the start of the postseason and said don’t be surprised if the Astros run the table. OK, I meant to send that! So how can I switch to the Phillies now? I’m a believer in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. I’m a believer in Kyle Schwarber, who hit three home runs in the NLCS. I’m suddenly a believer in Seranthony Dominguez. And, I hate say this, I believe Astros manager Dusty Baker will mess up a key decision at some point (like leaving a starter in too long rather than going to his deep bullpen).
Mostly, however, I’m a believer in Harper. The World Series record for home runs is five, shared by George Springer (2017), Chase Utley (2009) and Reggie Jackson (1977). Harper is going to break that record. — Schoenfield
Why are the Astros such an overwhelming choice? Some New York Yankees fans might prefer to blame the manager, the general manager, Josh Donaldson or a videotape of the 2004 playoffs for the sweep at the hands of the Astros, but really, that’s ignoring the obvious: The Houston pitching is absurdly great.
After leading the American League in ERA by nearly half a run during the regular season, the Astros have a 1.88 ERA in this postseason, have held opposing hitters to a .178 average, and are averaging 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. It’s as if the whole staff is working at a peak Pedro Martinez. The Phillies’ lineup is loaded with sluggers and experience, but they can’t overcome that dominant group. — Buster Olney
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Mark Schlabach, ESPN Senior Writer
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Alabama blew a 28-point lead against No. 2 Georgia at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday night.
And then the No. 4 Crimson Tide broke the Bulldogs’ hearts again in a 41-34 victory in which the SEC heavyweights scored touchdowns on consecutive plays from scrimmage late in the fourth quarter.
Alabama didn’t seal the victory until cornerback Zabien Brown intercepted quarterback Carson Beck‘s pass to receiver Colbie Young in the end zone with 43 seconds left to end Georgia’s furious rally.
After the Bulldogs rallied from a 23-point deficit at halftime, they took their first lead on Beck’s 67-yard touchdown to Dillon Bell to make it 34-33 with 2:31 to go.
But Alabama scored on its very next play from scrimmage. On first-and-10 from the Crimson Tide 25, quarterback Jalen Milroe threw a deep ball down the right sideline for freshman Ryan Williams. The receiver spun out of cornerback Julian Humphrey‘s tackle at the 8-yard line and beat safety KJ Bolden for a 75-yard touchdown with 2:18 remaining. Milroe threw a 2-point conversion to receiver Germie Bernard to give Alabama a 41-34 lead.
Milroe completed 27 of 33 passes for 374 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards with two scores. He is the first player in FBS history with 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns against an AP top-five opponent, according to ESPN Research.
Williams, a 17-year-old freshman, had six catches for 177 yards with one score.
Beck recovered from a slow start to complete 27 of 50 passes for 439 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. He also lost a fumble and was sacked three times.
The loss ended Georgia’s 42-game winning streak in the regular season, which was the longest run by an FBS team since Oklahoma won 45 in a row from 1953 to 1957. It also snapped Georgia’s 16-game winning streak on the road.
It was new Tide coach Kalen DeBoer’s first meeting with Georgia, but the results were the same for Alabama. It has won nine of its past 10 games against Georgia, including a 27-24 victory in last year’s SEC championship game, which led to the Bulldogs failing to make the College Football Playoff.
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Dave Wilson, ESPN Staff Writer
AUSTIN, Texas — No. 1 Texas got its first SEC win behind the arm of Arch Manning, who helped the Longhorns overcome a slow start and some self-inflicted setbacks to beat Mississippi State 35-13 on Saturday.
Manning was 26-of-31 for 324 yards and two touchdowns and added 33 rushing yards and another score, despite Johntay Cook II dropping a wide-open touchdown pass that would’ve added another 62 passing yards in the second quarter. A week after throwing two interceptions in his first start against UL Monroe, Manning said he felt more relaxed.
“I think last week I didn’t have as much fun as I wanted to,” Manning said. “I think I had a little bit more fun today even though it was a little rocky.”
It was rocky because running back Jaydon Blue lost two fumbles — one in the red zone — Cook dropped a touchdown and there were eight penalties on the Texas offense. Coach Steve Sarkisian criticized himself for kicking a field goal, then going for it on fourth down after a defensive penalty gave the Longhorns another chance. Texas failed to convert, taking three points off the board.
The Longhorns went into halftime with a 14-6 lead, with Mississippi State running a ground-heavy approach behind true freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. The Bulldogs ran 73 plays on the night to Texas’ 62, but the Longhorns outgained them 522 yards to 294. There were also 17 penalties in the game, many with lengthy reviews.
“It was hard for the game to get a rhythm to it,” Sarkisian said.
But he was pleased that the Longhorns navigated this stretch of the season and Quinn Ewers‘ injury to start 5-0. It’s the second straight season Texas has started 5-0, marking just the second time in the past 50 years the Longhorns have done it in back-to-back years. Texas has an off week coming up, followed by the Red River Rivalry in Dallas against Oklahoma, before Georgia comes to Austin the following week.
Sarkisian said the Longhorns showed poise, and he was pleased they were able to survive their first SEC challenge while letting Ewers recover from a strained oblique injury without having to rush him back.
“We need Quinn back because he’s our quarterback and he’s our leader,” Sarkisian said. “I think that impacts the entire team and belief, but what I think we learned and what Arch learned here over the last 2½ games is this team can count on him too.”
Manning said he’s ready for Ewers’ return whenever that might be.
“I think Quinn’s proved himself,” Manning said. “I mean, he led us to the Sugar Bowl last year and he’s played really well this year, so this is his team. I think he’s going to come back and play really well, but I’ll be ready for when my number’s called if they need me. So we’re just going to try and keep this thing rolling.”
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Max Olson, ESPN Staff Writer
LAS VEGAS — UNLV made a statement Saturday in its first game without former starting quarterback Matthew Sluka: The Rebels are going to be just fine.
Rolling to a dominant 59-14 win over Fresno State and moving to 4-0, UNLV proved it will be a contender in the Mountain West Conference race regardless of its quarterback change.
Hajj-Malik Williams threw for 182 yards, rushed for 119 yards and accounted for four total touchdowns in his first start for the Rebels after Sluka opted to leave the program Wednesday over a dispute about his NIL compensation.
“It was business as usual,” UNLV coach Barry Odom said. “We’ve got a very mature team. … Our players, we’ve got strong leadership. They understand the mission that we’re on and they got it done.”
Williams, a sixth-year senior and FCS transfer from Campbell, joined the Rebels in January and lost a close competition with Sluka in fall camp. The 24-year-old quarterback played in 41 games at Campbell, leaving as the program’s career leader in passing yards and touchdowns, and was ready for his opportunity.
“I thought he was effective, I thought he was efficient,” Odom said. “I thought the offensive line did a tremendous job protecting him. I thought the receivers ran great routes. I thought the runners ran hard. We played well as an offense.”
UNLV wide receiver Ricky White III led the Rebels with a season-high 10 catches for 127 yards and two touchdowns and said the quarterback change was “definitely good for us.”
“He’s just a great quarterback that us, as an offense, we can rally behind and just go by his pace,” White said.
After starting three games for UNLV, Sluka opted to redshirt and was expected to enter the transfer portal in December. Sluka’s father and agent have alleged he was verbally promised $100,000 by UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion during his recruitment but received only $3,000 from the school’s NIL collective. UNLV said in a statement that Sluka’s representatives made financial demands for him to keep playing that it interpreted as “a violation of NCAA pay-for-play rules, as well as Nevada state law.”
Odom read from a prepared statement during his postgame news conference and did not take questions regarding Sluka. He said UNLV complied with applicable rules and was committed to the development and success of every player in the program.
“Many have expressed very strong opinions about the events of last week without full knowledge of the facts, without full knowledge of the events of last week and without full knowledge of the rules in the ever-changing, evolving NIL system,” Odom said. “And regrettably, some have even used this circumstance as a platform for their own agendas. I respect everyone’s right to an opinion, and I won’t comment on others’ opinions or their motivations for expressing them.”
White also had a message for Circa Sports CEO Derek Stevens after the Vegas casino expressed interest in offering $100,000 to keep Sluka on the team, telling the Las Vegas Review-Journal that doing so would be worth it “to keep the Rebels’ playoff hopes alive.”
“I would ask that somebody reach out to the Circa CEO and ask him, with that $100,000 that he wanted to donate, give it to our O-line please,” White said.
The Rebels ended a six-game losing streak against Fresno State and achieved the program’s first 4-0 start since 1976 with a strong day in all three phases of the game. Their defense produced four interceptions and four sacks while giving up only 30 rushing yards, and their special teams delivered a blocked punt that White returned for a touchdown in the first quarter plus a 90-yard kickoff return touchdown by Jai’Den Thomas in the fourth quarter.
The victory kept UNLV in the race for the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff and concluded a chaotic week for an athletic department that was simultaneously dealing with the latest round of conference realignment in college athletics.
UNLV officially decided to remain in the Mountain West on Thursday, turning down a move to the Pac-12 following that league’s addition of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State for 2026. The seven remaining schools in the Mountain West agreed to a grant of rights that will bind them to the conference through 2031-32.
After already defeating Big 12 members Houston and Kansas in nonconference play, UNLV gets one more opportunity to take down a Power 4 opponent and strengthen its CFP résumé when it hosts 3-1 Syracuse on Friday.
“Our guys will flip the page really quickly,” Odom said. “I could tell in the locker room we’re ready to do that and get on to the next game.”
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