Key storylines for Ohio State-Penn State and the rest of Week 9’s biggest games
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ESPN staff
Week 9 of the college football season has begun, and multiple teams with an inside track to the playoff have big tests.
Tennessee survived its biggest challenge so far, outlasting Alabama 52-49 in Knoxville. The Volunteers will now host a Kentucky team coming off a bye that already has shown a propensity to knock off ranked opponents.
Sticking with the SEC East, Georgia and Florida will travel to Jacksonville to partake in an annual rivalry game that is still in search of its own name. Unfortunately for the Gators, they enter the matchup as more than three-touchdown underdogs, but anything is possible in Jacksonville.
Farther north, Michigan will host bitter rival Michigan State in a contest that always seems to bring fireworks, while Ohio State will travel to Penn State for the Buckeyes’ most important game to date. Ohio State has won five straight against the Nittany Lions and rolls into Happy Valley 7-0.
Oklahoma State looks to build off the momentum of a comeback win at home against Texas with an away game versus Kansas State, and out west, Oregon travels to Cal after a statement victory against UCLA in Eugene.
College football’s last weekend in October is here, and these are the biggest storylines this week.
No. 19 Kentucky at No. 3 Tennessee (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN app)
A few things have changed for Tennessee (actually a lot) since the Vols last faced Kentucky. Their 45-42 win over the No. 18-ranked Wildcats last season in Lexington snapped an 11-game losing streak against nationally ranked foes. Before that contest, which featured 1,073 yards of total offense, Tennessee’s last such victory came back in 2018 with a 24-7 win over No. 11 Kentucky.
That’s the way it’s been for the Wildcats in this series. They’ve lost 34 of the past 37 meetings, although Mark Stoops has two of those three wins in the past five years.
Stoops has built Kentucky’s program from the ground up with a pair of 10-win seasons in the past four years. Josh Heupel, in just his second season at Tennessee, has orchestrated an even more stunning turnaround. The Vols (7-0) are ranked No. 3 in the AP poll. They beat Alabama for the first time in 16 years. Tennessee leads the country in scoring offense (50.1 points per game) and is looking for its fifth win of the season over a ranked opponent.
For the first time in two decades, Tennessee is legitimately in the national championship conversation at a point in the season when the leaves are changing. A fifth win over a ranked team would match the number of coaches the Vols have had since Phillip Fulmer was fired in 2008.
These are dizzying times on Rocky Top indeed. But Heupel said his team is not about to get ahead of itself with a rested, healthier Kentucky team coming into Neyland Stadium on Saturday night.
“We’re still in the beginning stages of this journey, really the halfway point,” Heupel said. “For us, the preparation, being real with each other, competing every day is going to be critical. … So far, these guys have handled it the right way.”
In other words, any mention of the trip to No. 1 Georgia in two weeks is off-limits.
Kentucky (5-2) was off last week, which should ensure that quarterback Will Levis will be as healthy as he has been since suffering a turf toe injury against Ole Miss on Oct. 1 and missing the next game against South Carolina. Levis threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns last season against Tennessee. One of Kentucky’s chief problems this season has been protecting the quarterback. The Wildcats have allowed 26 sacks in seven games.
Levis will need to hit some big plays down the field against a Tennessee defense that is ranked 130th out of 131 teams in pass defense (329.7 yards per game). But the Vols have been stout against the run. They’re giving up just 90.8 yards per game on the ground, tied for eighth nationally. That’s where Chris Rodriguez Jr. comes in for Kentucky. He is a tough runner between the tackles, excellent after contact and can help shorten the game for the Wildcats if he is able to get it going against Tennessee’s D.
In Kentucky’s 27-17 win over Mississippi State two weeks ago, the 224-pound Rodriguez ran the ball 31 times for 197 yards and two touchdowns. — Chris Low
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 13 Penn State (Saturday, noon ET, Fox)
Before the season, an Ohio State schedule featuring Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Iowa — all before Nov. 1 — projected as one that could hold up against that of any national title contender. The way it turned out, the Buckeyes are still trying to peel off the ain’t-played-nobody label, despite their flat-out dominance.
Ohio State has won every game by double figures and the past six by an average of 38.7 points. Another convincing win at Beaver Stadium should enhance Ohio State’s profile heading into the first College Football Playoff rankings reveal, although thumping Penn State likely doesn’t carry the same value after what Michigan did to the Nittany Lions on Oct. 15.
“We know that we have to bring it every week,” Buckeyes coach Ryan Day said. “This is part of that competitive excellence, that competitive stamina. Going on the road and winning a game like this is going to be huge.”
Following the Michigan loss, Penn State responded well last week against Minnesota, and the Lions might match up better against the Buckeyes than the Wolverines, especially because of a talented secondary led by safety Ji’Ayir Brown and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. Michigan used Penn State’s aggressiveness on defense against the Lions, to the tune of 418 rushing yards, but Penn State D-coordinator Manny Diaz likely will keep the pressure on Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud if he can.
The Lions are looking for more sacks, collecting 15 through the first seven games.
“Obviously, we are challenging routes more in terms of the balls that are getting broken up, hopefully forcing the quarterback to hold onto the ball longer,” Penn State coach James Franklin said. “So in theory, we should be able to be more disruptive on the quarterback with sacks and pressures and things like that.”
Franklin has steadfastly supported his quarterback, senior Sean Clifford, who overcame an early interception against Minnesota to pass for 295 yards and four touchdowns, winning Big Ten offensive player of the week honors. Clifford played well in last year’s loss at Ohio State but received little help from Penn State’s offensive line and run game. The hope is that with improvement in both areas, combined with home-field advantage, Penn State can beat the Buckeyes for just the second time in State College since 2005.
Ohio State star wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (hamstring) is expected to play for a second straight game, but he could once again have a plays limit. Smith-Njigba has been limited to five receptions in three games, although teammates Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. have filled his production void with 1,333 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns.
The Buckeyes will look for more in the run game after Iowa limited them to 2.2 yards per carry with a long of 13 yards. — Adam Rittenberg
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
The Cowboys will visit K-State for one of the biggest matchups of the Big 12 season thus far and what could shape up as an elimination game for a spot in the conference title game.
Both teams have already played the conference leader, TCU, and lost. According to ESPN Analytics, Oklahoma State has an 82% chance to reach the Big 12 title game with a win while Kansas State would have a 36% chance with a victory.
Kansas State coach Chris Klieman is 0-3 against Mike Gundy and the Cowboys since arriving in Manhattan, but Klieman is emphasizing to his team that it gets to play at home for the first time since Oct. 1 and still has a chance in the title race.
“Everything is still in front of us, but it’s all about our preparation, and this is the next opportunity,” Klieman said this week. “Now we’ve got five one-week seasons left.”
Klieman will likely be going into the game with starting quarterback Adrian Martinez as a game-time decision after an undisclosed injury in the first series sidelined him in a loss to TCU last week.
“I hope Adrian is available, but I don’t know if he’ll be available. And there’s other kids like that,” Klieman said. “We tried to manage our way through Deuce Vaughn being banged up, and he carried the ball not as many times as he typically does. We hope Deuce is healthier this week, but we’ll see.”
The Wildcats got a full dose of Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders last year when he threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another score in a 31-20 Oklahoma State win. But the Cowboys know they will have to stop the run against a tough K-State team that averages 232.1 rushing yards and hopes to keep Sanders — and an Oklahoma State offense that averages 44.7 points per game — off the field.
The Cowboys struggled early to stop the ground game last week against visiting Texas, allowing 161 rushing yards in the first half; but they tightened up in the second half, yielding just 43 yards while rallying for a 41-34 win.
“You know, unless you’re playing Mike Leach, you’ve got to stop the run, you got to run the ball effectively,” Gundy said. — Dave Wilson
Michigan State at No. 4 Michigan (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN app)
Michigan State handed Michigan its only regular-season loss last season in a 37-33 decision over the Wolverines. It didn’t prevent Michigan from making it to the conference championship game or the playoffs, but that loss has stuck with the Wolverines.
The teams are set to play Saturday night at Michigan Stadium in their annual rivalry game.
“Nobody’s watched the highlights of that game or the film of that game more than we have,” Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh said on the Inside Michigan Football radio show. “And also, this year’s tape. But you really want to just know them, you want to master what they’re doing so you can use it against them. And I’m sure they’re doing the same thing up the road, no question about it.”
Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker had five rushing touchdowns in last year’s victory, and the Spartans held Michigan without a rushing score. Walker is now in the NFL, and Michigan State has been trying to get its run game going, rushing for 106.1 yards per game, which is No. 116 of all FBS teams.
Michigan, on the other hand, is ranked No. 7 in rushing yards per game, and running back Blake Corum has had 666 yards on the ground in the past four games, which is the most for a Michigan running back since Mike Hart in 2004. Corum’s 13 rushing touchdowns are also the most through the team’s first seven games in program history.
That is going to make for a challenge for Michigan State to stop the Wolverines’ ground attack. Harbaugh said he expects it will be a physical game, as the team with the most rushing yards typically comes out on top, and it’s been marked on the calendar for both teams.
“We all know what this week is. It’s not just another game for us,” Michigan State coach Mel Tucker said. “Our players and staff and fans understand that.”
Tucker and the Spartans used their bye week to try to get healthy and get some players back. He noted that it’s going to take a concerted effort, whether it’s called circling the wagons, bunker mentality or “Us against the world,” to beat Michigan this weekend.
Tucker hasn’t lost to Harbaugh and Michigan over the past two seasons. And Harbaugh said that despite the Spartans having a 3-4 record, Michigan State will give the Wolverines its best.
“Old cliché, throw out the records, is very true,” Harbaugh said. “It doesn’t matter. Both sides just want it that much.” — Tom VanHaaren
Florida vs. No. 1 Georgia at TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Georgia and Florida are both coming off a bye week, but the Gators arguably needed the time to regroup a little more ahead of Saturday’s matchup.
It was one thing to lose at home to LSU on Oct. 15. But it was another thing to give up 45 points and 528 yards of offense in the process.
Florida coach Billy Napier doesn’t want to get technical or give away specifics of what’s driving his team’s defensive struggles. But he said, “I think we understand what the issues are.”
Chief among them, Napier explained, is a lack of consistency.
Defensive lineman Tyreak Sapp said the Gators are “just a few plays away.” And while that’s frustrating to be so close and yet so far away, Sapp acknowledged there’s hope in that sentiment, as well.
But digging deeper, you find a defense that desperately needs more from its front seven.
Florida is giving up the most yards per rush in the SEC East (4.47). And it is struggling to affect the quarterback with the conference’s lowest number of disrupted dropbacks at 31, a figure that includes sacks, interceptions, batted passes, passes defended and tipped passes.
Then there are the missed tackles. Florida has 67 of them. Georgia, meanwhile, has only 39.
To have any chance of pulling off the upset in Jacksonville, the Gators will need their defense to improve in a hurry, and Florida will need a big-time performance from quarterback Anthony Richardson.
Richardson has flashed first-round talent, but he also has battled consistency issues in the passing game, with six touchdowns and seven interceptions.
But Napier said he sees growth in Richardson’s understanding of the offensive system and diagnosing what the defense is doing.
“I think he’s still working hard on mastering what that process looks like Sunday to Saturday — the unwavering commitment to what’s required to play and win,” Napier said. “So that’s where he’s at. Seven games in and continues to get better.” — Alex Scarborough
Southern at Jackson State (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN app)
For all of the headlines Deion Sanders has created with his recruiting, he has done just as well on the field itself.
His Tigers will welcome “College GameDay” to town with an unbeaten status and a No. 5 FCS ranking by their name. They have won 14 straight SWAC games, and after rolling to an 11-2 record powered mostly by defense last season, they’ve been racking up major offensive numbers this time around. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders, the coach’s son, has taken his development up a few notches, completing 73% of his passes with a 23-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. And Jackson State is outscoring opponents by an average of 41-10. The Tigers did most of that without blue-chip freshman Travis Hunter too. He was injured in the first game of the season and didn’t return to action until last week.
If Southern maintains its recent form, however, this could be an intriguing game. The Jaguars fell to 1-2 after a shutout loss to Texas Southern on Sept. 17, but they have outscored their past four opponents by an average of 44-10. Sophomore dual-threat Besean McCray has completed 74% of his passes in that span and has rushed for over 70 yards four times this season. First-year coach Eric Dooley needed a few weeks, but he has the blue and gold rolling. Will that be enough against a superpowered Jackson State? We’ll see. — Bill Connelly
No. 8 Oregon at California (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
For a team that lost by 45 points to open the season, it’s a long road back to playoff relevance. That the Ducks are now ranked No. 8 in the AP poll — just past the halfway point of the regular season — represents a remarkable rise. Under first-year coach Dan Lanning, Oregon is the only team that is undefeated in Pac-12 play and heads to Berkeley, where things have started to fall apart for the Golden Bears under Justin Wilcox. The matchup provides a fascinating what-if storyline considering Oregon first pursued Wilcox before it was rebuffed, leading to Lanning.
It’s a strong year for quarterback play in the Pac-12, but Oregon’s Bo Nix is right there among the best. He ranks second in the conference in QBR, first in yards per dropback (8.7) and fourth in touchdown passes (17), and he has been sacked just once all season (the fewest among qualifying QBs in the country). Since the Georgia loss, Oregon has scored at least 41 points in each game and hasn’t been overly reliant on any of the playmakers around Nix. Despite its struggles, Cal’s defense has been good, having allowed no more than 28 points in any of the Bears’ four losses.
If Oregon really is going to make a push to be part of the playoff conversation, two key things must happen:
1. Georgia needs to keep rolling. If the Bulldogs are the clear No. 1 team in the country, it’s easier to forgive Oregon’s loss.
2. Style points. The Ducks can’t leave any doubt about how much they’ve improved, and close games against teams like Cal won’t make the necessary impression. They need to be dominant.
On the flip side, Cal’s paltry offensive production makes it fair to question how long coordinator Bill Musgrave will be for the job. The Bears have averaged just 14.3 points over the past three games, which just won’t get it done. — Kyle Bonagura
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Bill Connelly
On Oct. 26, 1985, UTEP pulled one of the biggest upsets in WAC history, holding BYU’s Robbie Bosco to 15-for-35 passing with four interceptions and upsetting the No. 7 Cougars — the defending national champions — in a 23-16 shocker. BYU had won 30 of its previous 31 games heading into the game, and UTEP had begun the season 0-6.
Until Saturday, that was the last time a team that was 0-4 or worse had knocked off a top-10 opponent. But almost 40 years after that wild upset at the Sun Bowl, a sparse Rose Bowl crowd witnessed an upset of similar circumstance. UCLA’s 42-37 win over Penn State was the most stunning result of the 2025 season to date, and combined with Florida’s 29-21 win over Texas in The Swamp — a much more normal upset, as far as those things go — it severely wounded the College Football Playoff odds of what were the top two teams in the preseason AP poll
The rest of Week 6 was more about missed upset opportunities than shockers, but taking down the preseason top two is quite the paradigm shifter. Let’s look back at the most important developments of Week 6.
The biggest upset in 40 years (by one definition, at least)
Each week in my Friday preview column, I search for what I call the Chaos Superfecta, in which I look for four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together into a much more upset-friendly number. This past Friday, I declared that we would be taking down a Big Ten favorite, noting that there was only a 55% chance that Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois and Nebraska all would win. As it turns out, I wasn’t aiming high enough. UCLA’s pregame win probability, per SP+, was 2.1%; the Bruins’ upset was actually too chaotic to be considered for the Chaos Superfecta.
We know how huge upsets tend to play out. The losing favorite turns the ball over too many times (usually with a healthy dose of bad luck), settles for too many field goals and bottoms out on third or fourth down. They win a majority of the plays but lose the wrong ones.
Penn State did lose a fumble to start the second half, and the Nittany Lions’ combined 5-for-12 performance on third and fourth down wasn’t terrible but wasn’t amazing either. But the Nittany Lions produced a 52.6% success rate*, well above the national average of 44.8%, and they averaged a healthy 6.3 yards per play.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
Drew Allar, so maligned for big-game performances through the years, was quite good, completing 19 of 26 passes for 200 yards and rushing 10 times (not including one sack) for 89 yards. Aside from an early three-and-out, PSU moved the ball well all game until an all-timer of a fourth-and-short stop by UCLA’s defense in the final minute.
The culprit, instead, was a Penn State defense that has been as good as virtually any in the nation over the past four seasons.
Since the start of 2022, only five teams have gained at least 430 yards on the Nittany Lions: No. 5 Michigan and No. 2 Ohio State in 2022, No. 11 Ole Miss in 2023, No. 1 Oregon in 2024 … and UCLA on Saturday. That’s the same UCLA team that gained just 326 yards on New Mexico in Week 3 and 220 against Utah in its season opener.
Well, I guess it wasn’t the same UCLA. This one had Jerry Neuheisel calling plays after offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri followed fired head coach DeShaun Foster out the door this past week. Neuheisel’s notice was short enough that he hadn’t even mastered the headset yet.
UCLA OC Jerry Neuheisel had never practiced with the headset before today’s game – but it all worked out 😂 pic.twitter.com/oVelZaEa7c
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 5, 2025
Neuheisel called the game like UCLA played it: with nothing to lose. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has spent much of his career looking as though he’s torn between showing off his athleticism and trying to be a pro-style QB prototype by staying in the pocket and making plays with his arm. That has resulted in far too much indecision and far too many sacks over the last season and a half. But he was unlocked Saturday, taking his customary three sacks but otherwise rushing 13 times for 150 yards and three touchdowns. He moved the chains on third down four times with his arm and four times with his legs.
The Bruins sliced down the field for a touchdown to start the game, recovered a surprise onside kick and took a 10-point lead before Penn State could actually touch the ball. They outgained the shell-shocked Nittany Lions by a 285-92 margin in the first half, in part because PSU got the ball only three times, and took a 27-7 lead into halftime. But when the Nittany Lions scored a touchdown, then blocked a punt for another score, to cut the lead to 27-21 midway through the third quarter, it was fair to assume what was going to happen next: Here’s where the slow-starting favorite shifts into gear and wins by two touchdowns, right? Even ESPN’s in-game win probability model shifted to favor the Nittany Lions.
Instead, UCLA immediately drove 75 yards for a touchdown, and when PSU scored in response, UCLA went another 75 yards for a score. Things got tense late, and the Nittany Lions, down 42-35 in the final minute, had a chance to tie the game up. But Scooter Jackson led a host of defenders in stuffing Allar on fourth-and-2, and the Bruins saw out the unbelievable upset.
Even if you had told me in advance that UCLA would win this game, I would have given “Allar plays well, but the defense gets torched, and the Nittany Lions lose at the line of scrimmage on almost every key occasion” betting odds of about +1000. Penn State was without injured star linebacker Tony Rojas, but my goodness, the school didn’t spend unearthly sums of money prying defensive coordinator Jim Knowles away from Ohio State to give up 42 points to UCLA.
This was only James Franklin’s third loss as a favorite of 14 or more points at Penn State – he’s now 56-3 in such games, a 0.949 win percentage that is better than almost any team’s in the country. Maybe the Nittany Lions were just due an absolute nonsense performance; maybe no one can limit uncertainty to such an upset-proof degree.
Regardless, this is a devastating loss. With back-to-back games against Ohio State (second in SP+) and Indiana (third) coming up in November, the Nittany Lions were already looking at probably needing to at least split those games to feel good about their playoff chances. Now they probably have to beat both the Buckeyes and Hoosiers, and with their SP+ rating falling off a cliff following Saturday’s result, they’re projected to have only a 1.6% chance of winning out to reach 10-2.
This was the all-in year for Penn State, with the school ponying up not only for Knowles but also to keep stars such as Allar, running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton in town for one more season. Now their most likely record, per SP+, is 7-5, and their Big Ten title odds are currently 11th in the conference, lower than those of even Iowa or Maryland.
Big Ten title odds, per SP+
Ohio State 26.9%
Oregon 25.8%
Indiana 17.7%
Michigan 9.7%
USC 5.1%
Washington 4.3%
Illinois 3.6%
Nebraska 2.9%
Iowa 1.3%
Maryland 1.2%
Penn State 0.6%
Oof.
Florida over Texas, aka the rise of the disappointing QB
One of the stories of September was how many high-upside quarterbacks were falling miles short of expectations. When I ranked all the power-conference quarterbacks last week, Texas’ Arch Manning ranked 41st, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik ranked 54th, UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava ranked 58th and Florida’s DJ Lagway ranked 61st. All were mega-blue-chip recruits, Klubnik and Iamaleava had piloted playoff teams last season, Lagway had flashed signs of true-freshman brilliance down the stretch and Manning began this season as the betting favorite for the Heisman. All were among the bottom 40% of P4 QBs.
On Saturday, Iamaleava torched Penn State, and Klubnik went 22-for-24 for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns as Clemson absolutely pasted North Carolina. Lagway, meanwhile, drastically outdueled Manning as Florida toppled Texas.
Against what was the No. 1 defense in the country, per SP+, Lagway completed 21 of 28 passes for 298 yards and two scores, and after suffering far too many sacks and turnovers in September, he threw one pick with no sacks. Jadan Baugh rushed for 107 yards, and blue-chip freshman Dallas Wilson caught six passes for 111 yards and two touchdowns, including this utterly ridiculous 55-yarder.
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Freshman Dallas Wilson makes unbelievable 55-yard TD catch
Dallas Wilson is able to stay inbounds after the catch and runs in for the Florida touchdown.
The Gators averaged 7.0 yards per play with a 48% success rate against a defense that seemed even more elite than Penn State’s. Only two turnovers and two field goals kept Florida under 30 points. Lagway has consistently pressed this season, trying far too hard to make something happen for a struggling team. On Saturday, he was wonderfully in control.
Manning, meanwhile, had yet another frustrating game. He did complete passes of 22, 26, 33, 38 and 42 yards, with a 36-yard run to boot, but he was just 16-for-29 for the game and threw two picks with six sacks. He continues to lose his footwork and misfire on loads of passes when pressured, he continues to get absolutely no help from his offensive line, and he continues to trust his athleticism too much to bail him out of trouble.
Texas has played five games this season: three against teams ranked 97th or worse in SP+ and two against teams ranked 33rd or better. Texas is 3-0 against the former but 0-2 against the latter. Life in the SEC gives the team plenty of chances to stockpile marquee wins if it gets its act together. But the Longhorns have fallen to 20th in SP+, thanks to an offense that currently ranks 53rd, and saying they still have 5-0 Oklahoma, 5-0 Texas A&M, 4-1 Georgia and 5-1 Vanderbilt on the schedule sounds far more threatening than hopeful. At this point, the Longhorns’ most likely projected record is 7-5, and they’re currently 10th on the SEC title odds list.
SEC title odds, per SP+
Ole Miss 17.0%
Alabama 15.5%
Oklahoma 15.5%
Missouri 11.7%
Texas A&M 9.9%
Georgia 7.3%
Tennessee 6.0%
LSU 5.7%
Vanderbilt 3.3%
Texas 2.8%
The Horns will have a shot at an immediate rebound against Oklahoma in Dallas this coming Saturday, but any hope Texas fans can derive from their team likely facing Sooners backup quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. is offset by the fact that OU ranks second in defensive SP+, 16 spots higher than the Florida defense that just made Manning’s life hell.
Missed opportunities in Tallahassee and Tuscaloosa
Turnovers have been at the root of many upsets through the years, but turnovers also prevented a couple of underdogs from making favorites sweat Saturday.
No. 10 Alabama 30, No. 16 Vanderbilt 14
A lot of Saturday’s Bama-Vandy game in Tuscaloosa played close to the typical upset script. Alabama moved the ball with ruthless efficiency overall but suffered a few negative plays and an ill-timed turnover and scored touchdowns on just one of its first five red zone trips. The Crimson Tide let Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt hang around in exactly the type of way teams often end up ruing. But unlike last season, Vandy couldn’t hold up its end of the upset bargain.
Pavia lost a fumble at the Bama 8 as the Commodores were attempting to expand an early 7-0 lead, then Pavia was picked off by Keon Sabb at the Bama 7 early in the fourth quarter, when Vandy, down 20-14, had a chance to take the lead again. As efficient and gutsy as Pavia can be, you can’t waste opportunities like that. Bama scored 10 late points to pull away.
Now, Bama was easily the superior team. The Tide outgained the ‘Dores by 153 yards and 0.9 yards per play, with a better success rate (49.3% to 46.3%) and more big plays (gains of 20-plus on 10.1% of their snaps to Vandy’s 5.6%). Jam Miller, who missed most of September because of injury, rushed 22 times for 136 yards, and Ty Simpson‘s primary receiver trio — Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton — combined for 15 catches and 246 yards. But they left the door ajar with their red zone failures, and it felt almost surprising when Vandy didn’t take advantage.
In the past two weeks, Bama has beaten Georgia for a second straight year and avenged last year’s loss to Vandy. The challenges are only beginning — the Tide’s next two opponents (Missouri and Tennessee) are each in the SP+ top 10, and both LSU (17th) and Oklahoma (fifth) will visit Tuscaloosa in November — but these were two huge hurdles to clear, and they’re in good shape in the SEC race because of it.
No. 3 Miami 28, No. 18 Florida State 22
Through the first four games of 2025, Florida State might have had the best scripted plays in college football. Over the first 15 plays of a game, the Seminoles were averaging 10.5 yards per play, first in the country. For that matter, their first four snaps Saturday night gained 51 yards as they quickly drove into Miami’s red zone. But the momentum ceased. Over their next 37 snaps, they averaged just 3.5 yards per play with two turnovers. And after a third turnover, they found themselves down 28-3.
Without the turnovers, however, they might have had a chance. The FSU defense did its part, more or less, losing receivers Malachi Toney and CJ Daniels for a quartet of big gains but otherwise allowing just 3.3 yards per play over 55 snaps and forcing five punts with three three-and-outs. Miami scored just enough that, when FSU’s offense finally got going late, the Noles couldn’t quite catch up, but without the self-inflicted wounds, the ending might have been much more interesting. Regardless, after a tough overtime loss to overtime masters Virginia last week — the Cavaliers beat Louisville in OT as well Saturday — FSU didn’t give itself a shot at a rebound opportunity.
At the heart of FSU’s sudden regression has been a relative loss of form for quarterback Tommy Castellanos. Even as the Noles began the season brilliantly, I couldn’t shake the memory of last year, when Castellanos followed a brilliant start at Boston College with a collapse.
Castellanos’ first three games of 2024: 83.5 Total QBR, 64.8% completion rate, 9.5 yards per dropback, 8.5% sack rate
Rest of the season: 17.9 Total QBR, 59.8% completion rate, 5.9 yards per dropback, 11.6% sack rate
Castellanos and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn fit beautifully together, and his ceiling is higher at FSU than it was at BC. But after an almost perfect three-game start, it appears opponents are once again adjusting well to his unique skill set. Virginia and Miami both hemmed him in and forced him to throw more passes instead of scrambling for downfield yards, and it limited his effectiveness.
Castellanos’ first three games of 2025: 92.5 Total QBR, 71.1% completion rate, 13.8 yards per dropback, 0.0% sack rate
Last two games: 58.9 Total QBR, 55.8% completion rate, 6.3 yards per dropback, 4.9% sack rate
It’s still baffling that Bama didn’t understand the assignment in the season opener and allowed Castellanos to repeatedly escape the pocket, but Virginia and Miami put him in more awkward situations. FSU should still score plenty of points and win plenty of games — SP+ gives them a 66% chance of finishing 8-4 or better, which is a massive rebound after last year’s 2-10 collapse. But any hopes of an ACC title charge or playoff bid are pretty much toast.
ACC title odds, per SP+
Miami 32.9%
Duke 15.7%
Georgia Tech 13.4%
Virginia 12.4%
Louisville 9.4%
SMU 6.6%
Pitt 5.2%
Florida State 1.2%
FSU fans probably would have probably welcomed an 8-4 record before the season began, but the win over Bama set a bar too high for the Seminoles to clear.
Cincinnati over Iowa State and the new Big 12 race
No. 11 Texas Tech 35, Houston 11
Hey, guess what: Texas Tech looked fantastic again. Even while settling for too many field goals (like Alabama), the Red Raiders still led previously unbeaten Houston by at least 12 points for the game’s final 46 minutes, more than doubled the Cougars’ yardage (552-267) and cruised to victory. They’re projected favorites by double digits in every remaining regular-season game, per SP+, and have a 36% chance of reaching 12-0. They have better conference title odds than any other power-conference team.
Big 12 title odds, per SP+
Texas Tech 38.2%
BYU 12.7%
Cincinnati 10.0%
Utah 9.8%
Arizona State 7.2%
TCU 5.1%
Arizona 5.0%
Iowa State 4.4%
Kansas 3.9%
Overall, the Big 12 slate was as chaotic as ever, with three games decided by one score — including a last-second goal-line stand for Kansas (27-20 over UCF) and a last-minute field goal for Baylor (35-34 over Kansas State). Unbeaten BYU didn’t look amazing against West Virginia on Friday night but never really had to sweat either, and Baylor, TCU and Kansas were able to overcome early-season losses and remain in the title race.
Cincinnati 38, No. 14 Iowa State 30
Iowa State couldn’t remain unbeaten, however. The Cyclones allowed points on all of Cincinnati’s first-half drives, fell behind 31-7 and couldn’t get closer than nine points until the final two minutes. Cincy’s Evan Pryor and Tawee Walker combined for 167 rushing yards in the first half alone, quarterback Brendan Sorsby did Sorsby things (214 passing yards, 64 rushing yards), and Cincinnati won its fourth straight game since a Week 1 heartbreaker against Nebraska. This wasn’t a flawless performance — the Bearcats committed a mind-numbing run of penalties early in the fourth quarter and gained just 53 yards in their first 16 second-half snaps before putting the game away with a long Caleb Goodie touchdown — but it established their spot in the title race, and if the defense can more frequently perform as it did in the first half Saturday, they could remain in the race for a while.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Old Dominion: up 5.2 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 65th to 50th)
Ball State: up 4.6 points (from 129th to 126th)
UConn: up 4.5 points (from 77th to 66th)
Florida: up 4.3 points (from 47th to 33rd)
New Mexico State: up 4.2 points (from 128th to 121st)
Pitt: up 4.1 points (from 41st to 30th)
UCLA: up 4.1 points (from 100th to 87th)
Northwestern: up 4.0 points (from 80th to 71st)
Akron: up 3.7 points (from 131st to 128th)
Notre Dame: up 3.6 points (from 19th to eighth)
Florida, UCLA and Northwestern all enjoyed course corrections after strong performances, and SP+ was particularly impressed with what Notre Dame did to Boise State – by the stats, the Irish’s 28-7 win looked like a 33-point win. But can we talk about Old Dominion for a second? Quarterback Colton Joseph is averaging 15 yards per completion and 8.3 yards per carry and is up to 17th in Total QBR, and the 5-1 Monarchs’ only blemish was a competitive loss against Indiana. They beat Virginia Tech, and their average score against three non-power conference-opponents is 41-7. They play James Madison in two weeks in what is quickly becoming one of the biggest Group of 5 games of the season.
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Penn State: down 6.4 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from fourth to 16th)
Mississippi State: down 5.0 points (from 27th to 43rd)
Minnesota: down 4.5 points (from 45th to 60th)
Vanderbilt: down 4.1 points (from 11th to 21st)
Boston College: down 4.1 points (from 75th to 86th)
Oklahoma State: down 4.1 points (from 103rd to 116th)
North Carolina: down 4.0 points (from 86th to 101st)
Coastal Carolina: down 4.0 points (from 123rd to 129th)
Iowa State: down 3.9 points (from 26th to 37th)
Florida International: down 3.9 points (from 121st to 127th)
We saw a number of terribly disappointing teams continuing to fall this week — Boston College, Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Coastal — but it probably isn’t a surprise to see which team leads this list. Penn State still ranks 16th overall but only because it takes a while to fall from near the top.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Nico Iamaleava, UCLA (17-for-24 passing for 166 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 150 non-sack rushing yards and 3 TDs against Penn State).
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (23-for-27 passing for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns against Minnesota).
3. Eli Heidenreich, Navy (8 catches for 243 yards and 3 touchdowns against Air Force).
4. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (19-for-22 passing for 390 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 non-sack rushing yards against Purdue).
5. Jakobe Thomas, Miami (5 tackles, a sack, an interception, two pass breakups and a forced fumble against Florida State).
6. Colton Joseph, Old Dominion (17-for-30 passing for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 67 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Coastal Carolina).
7. Blake Horvath, Navy (20-for-26 passing for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 130 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Air Force).
8. Ty Simpson, Alabama (23-for-31 passing for 340 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 21 non-sack rushing yards against Vanderbilt).
9. Carnell Tate, Ohio State (nine catches for 183 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota).
10. DJ Lagway, Florida (21-for-28 passing for 298 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT against Texas).
Iamaleava was the obvious choice this week, but Sayin is starting to make an admittedly easy job — throwing to Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate — look really, really easy. In four games since the Buckeyes’ win over Texas, he has completed 88 of 106 passes (83%!) for 1,187 yards, 14 touchdowns and 3 picks, none in the past two games. He can still be fooled occasionally (which makes sense since he’s a redshirt freshman), but it’s becoming increasingly rare.
Honorable mention:
• David Bailey, Texas Tech (3 tackles, all TFLs, 2 sacks, a forced fumble and a QB hurry against Houston).
• Carson Beck, Miami (20-for-27 passing for 241 yards and 4 touchdowns against Florida State).
• Hank Beatty, Illinois (5 catches for 186 yards and a touchdown against Purdue).
• Jordan Gant, Akron (32 carries for 176 yards, plus 28 receiving yards and a touchdown against Central Michigan).
• Mason Heintschel, Pitt (30-for-41 passing for 323 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 42 non-sack rushing yards against Boston College).
• Cashius Howell, Texas A&M (3 tackles, all sacks, and a pass breakup against Mississippi State)
• Cade Klubnik, Clemson (22-for-24 passing for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns against North Carolina).
• Jam Miller, Alabama (22 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown, plus 8 receiving yards against Vanderbilt).
• Naeten Mitchell, New Mexico State (10 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 pass breakups and a pick-six against Sam Houston).
Through six weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (24 points)
2. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
3T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (15)
3T. Taylen Green, Arkansas (15)
5. Jayden Maiava, USC (12)
6T. Jonah Coleman, Washington (10)
6T. Nico Iamaleava, UCLA (10)
6T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (10)
6T. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (10)
6T. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10)
With four top-10 appearances in the past five weeks, Ty Simpson, the No. 4 overall betting favorite, has built a bit of a cushion for himself as we approach the midway point of the season. (Betting favorite Carson Beck has yet to make an appearance on our list, which is odd.) Meanwhile … hello there, Luke Altmyer! He has finished second and fourth in the past two weeks while going a combined 39-for-48 for 618 yards and 3 touchdowns. Since getting stomped by Indiana, the Illinois offense has been nearly unstoppable.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1. UCLA 42, No. 7 Penn State 37. Obviously.
2-3. FCS: Georgetown 27, Morgan State 24; Division II: West Liberty 47, West Virginia State 41. The smaller-school ranks gave us a pair of Hail Mary-esque finishes this week.
First, after watching an early 14-0 lead turn into a late 24-21 deficit, Georgetown’s Dez Thomas II found Jimmy Kibble for a 49-yard score to take down Morgan State at the buzzer.
HAIL MARY TO KIBBLE FOR THE WIN!#HoyaSaxa #HoyaBold #DefendTheDistrict #SISU https://t.co/CLGmxgiUPv pic.twitter.com/C2VrowGbMW
— Georgetown Football (@HoyasFB) October 4, 2025
Then, at the end of a 40-point fourth quarter that had already given us an 80-yard Antevious Jackson-to-Hunter Patterson touchdown pass, Jackson found Osama Hurst for 40 yards to turn a tie game into a West Liberty win.
BALLGAME! West Liberty beats West Virginia State on the final play of the game – a 40-yard TD pass from Antevious Jackson to Osama Hurst. Hilltoppers 47, Yellow Jackets 41. #MECFB pic.twitter.com/8exKcZ1yLF
— Mountain East Conf. (@TheMountainEast) October 4, 2025
4. Arkansas State 31, Texas State 30. Oof, Texas State. The Bobcats’ defense mostly shut Arkansas State down for three quarters and took three separate leads in the fourth. But ASU drove the length of the field to tie each time, and when Lincoln Pare scored to give Texas State the lead with a minute left, Tyler Robles missed the PAT after a poor snap. That opened the door, and Jaylen Raynor‘s short touchdown with seven seconds left — plus Clune Van Andel‘s PAT — gave the Red Wolves an upset win to start Sun Belt play.
5. Baylor 35, Kansas State 34. OOF, K-State. The Wildcats have now lost four games by a combined 13 points. They led this one 31-17 with nine minutes left and were driving to basically put the game away, but Jacob Redding‘s 66-yard pick-six with 4:28 left gave the Bears a sudden lead. Luis Rodriguez‘s 22-yard field goal made it 34-32 KSU, but Connor Hawkins bombed in a 53-yarder at the buzzer, and Baylor moved to 2-1 in Big 12 play.
6. Washington 24, Maryland 20. I’m not going to lie: I stopped paying attention to this one when Maryland went up 20-0. Apparently Maryland did too.
7-8. Division III: No. 5 Wisconsin-La Crosse 23, No. 10 Wisconsin-Whitewater 20 (2OT); No. 17 Wisconsin-Oshkosh 21, No. 12 Wisconsin-River Falls 17. You know how I’m always nagging you about keeping up with the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference in Division III? If the first week of this year’s title race is any indication, the nagging isn’t going to cease anytime soon. The conference featured a pair of ranked-versus-ranked matchups, and both were thrillers.
After nearly 60 minutes of defensive dominance in Oshkosh, the offenses perked up late. Kaleb Blaha’s 2-yard run with 1:21 left capped a 92-yard drive and gave River Falls a 17-14 lead, but Oshkosh drove 66 yards in eight plays, and Quentin Keene’s 7-yard strike to Clayton Schwalbe gave the Titans a last-second win. But that was the mere undercard: The headliner in Whitewater, played in front of 20,167 — the second-largest on-campus crowd ever for a Division III game — saw La Crosse overcome a 17-0 halftime deficit and send the game to overtime with a late Gabe Lynch touchdown. Overtime was a field goal festival, but after Christian Powell recovered a strip-sack fumble, La Crosse earned a big walk-off road win with a 36-yard field goal from Michael Stack.
9. FCS: Western Carolina 23, Wofford 21. I should have probably given Western Carolina’s Taron Dickens a spot on the Heisman list above. He did, after all, complete 46 straight passes Saturday, an NCAA single-game record. Granted, they were mostly short passes — he finished 53-for-56 for 378 yards — and he needed every one of them to overcome three long Wofford touchdowns. But Marcus Trout‘s 34-yard field goal with 23 seconds left assured Dickens’ record day wasn’t in vain.
10. Division II: No. 8 Augustana 29, Sioux Falls 28. Sioux Falls was on its way to both a top-10 upset and a win in the Key to the City rivalry as the Cougars led 28-10 heading into the fourth quarter. But Augustana charged back, with two Richard Lucero Jr. touchdown passes sandwiching a 52-yard Jake Pecina field goal. Lucero’s 24-yard strike to Isaiah Huber gave Augie the lead with 1:18 left, and USF’s last-minute desperation drive stalled out near midfield.
Honorable mention:
12. Buffalo 31, Eastern Michigan 30 (OT)
13. No. 24 Virginia 30, Louisville 27 (OT)
14. Division II: Ferrum 28, Shorter 25
15. FCS: Dayton 35, Morehead State 28
16. Troy 31, South Alabama 24 (OT)
17. Western Kentucky 27, Delaware 24 (Friday)
18. Florida 29, No. 9 Texas 21
19. Division II: Minnesota State-Moorhead 40, Minot State 37 (OT)
FORT WORTH, Texas — Deion Sanders said he was “hurting like crazy” after Colorado‘s loss Saturday night at TCU and believes he has more blood clots in his leg.
“Cat’s out of the bag, all right. I think I’ve got more blood clots,” Sanders said. “It don’t make sense. I’m hurting like crazy. … I’m not getting blood to my leg. That’s why my leg is throbbing.”
The 58-year-old Colorado coach sat at times late during the 35-21 loss and said he had a doctor’s appointment Monday to see about the issue.
“Sorry to get that out, but thank you for noticing,” Sanders said when responding to a question after his health.
Sanders spent time away from the Buffaloes (2-4, 0-3 Big 12) this summer as he went through treatment for bladder cancer. His doctor said before the season that he was cured from that, with a section of Sanders’ intestine reconstructed to function as a bladder.
The Pro Football Hall of Fame player, who also played Major League Baseball, has struggled with his left foot since having two toes amputated in 2021 because of blood clot issues while at Jackson State. He also missed Pac-12 media day in 2023, his first year at Colorado, after a procedure to remove a blood clot from his right leg and another to straighten toes on his left foot.
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