
Way-too-early 2023 MLB Power Rankings: Who’s No. 1? How far down are the Yankees?!
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3 years agoon
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adminIt’s time for the offseason! Which means it’s time for our annual way-too-early 2023 power rankings.
The 2022 season came to an end on Saturday night in Houston, as the Astros won their second World Series title since 2017 after defeating the Phillies in Game 6. What do the next few months have in store for the victors of the Fall Classic?
Let’s take stock of where all 30 teams stand right now as we head into what should be an exciting and intriguing free agency — I mean, I hope a dude who hit 62 home runs and is a free agent gets you excited about this offseason.
2022 record: 106-56 (first in the AL West)
2022 final ranking: 2
With nearly the entire roster coming back for 2023, Houston’s incredible pitching depth makes the Astros a pretty easy call here. They allowed the fewest runs in a full season in the American League in the DH era (since 1973). Justin Verlander does have a $25 million player option, and even if he opts out and signs elsewhere, the Astros will still have the best pitching depth in the majors — especially with a full season from Lance McCullers Jr. and Hunter Brown, who copied Verlander’s delivery while growing up in Michigan, ready to step into a significant role.
The Astros even have some flexibility in the payroll to make a big addition. Given that Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are free agents after 2024, maybe they’ll be looking for a long-term power bat. You know, perhaps even a certain New York Yankees outfielder …
2022 record: 101-61 (first in the NL East)
2022 final ranking: 4
The Astros weren’t quite a slam dunk for the top spot, however, as the Braves dominated the final four months of the regular season to capture their fifth straight division title. The emergence of center fielder Michael Harris II and starters Spencer Strider and Kyle Wright raised this team to another level. Now picture a lineup with Ronald Acuna Jr. completely healthy again if he rediscovers his power stroke — he hit just 15 home runs in 119 games this season — after 2021’s knee surgery. Shortstop Dansby Swanson heads into free agency after his best season, and if he doesn’t return, maybe the Braves turn to Vaughn Grissom, who impressed playing second base down the stretch.
Bottom line: With Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Acuna and now Harris and Strider all signed well into the future, the Braves are going to compete for National League pennants for a long time.
2022 record: 89-73
2022 final ranking: 10
This might be a little ambitious since the Padres have some holes to fill in the rotation and at first base, but consider:
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They have three MVP-caliber talents in Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr., with Tatis now set to return from his PED suspension on April 20.
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They have elite defenders up the middle in center fielder Trent Grisham and shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, which could push Tatis to the outfield.
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Josh Hader, Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia and Nick Martinez are all back to anchor the bullpen, although maybe Martinez shifts to the rotation.
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They should have about $20 million to spend to add a starter and/or a first baseman.
Yes, there are concerns: Soto didn’t hit for much power after the trade, Tatis’ wrist needs to be healthy and the 40-man position player depth is thin. But if Soto and Tatis play to what we’ve seen in the past? Watch out.
2022 record: 86-76 (third in AL East)
2022 final ranking: 9
They won 86 games (tied for 12th in the majors), they struggled to score runs all season and then scored just one run in 24 innings in the wild-card series loss to Cleveland. So why are they ranked so high here? Yes, pitching, pitching and more pitching … but also because of this little factoid: According to @ManGamesLostMLB, the Rays had the fourth-most missed games by injured players (behind the Reds, Nationals and Cubs). And many of those were key injuries.
For starters, they’ll add Tyler Glasnow, who returned in September from Tommy John surgery, to a rotation of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs — and those three quietly combined for a 2.61 ERA (although former top prospect Shane Baz will miss 2023 after his own Tommy John surgery). The offense has to improve and it will, starting with Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco, who combined for just 148 games and 14 home runs.
2022 record: 111-51
2022 final ranking: 1
Most wins in the NL since the 1906 Cubs. Highest run differential since the 1939 Yankees. Led the majors in both runs scored and fewest runs allowed. And then, a brutal four-game loss to the Padres in the division series that left Dodgers fans crying that it was their most painful postseason defeat yet. Of course, you don’t go from 111 wins to pumpkins overnight, but the Dodgers do have several key agents to replace or re-sign: Trea Turner, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney — and Walker Buehler is out for the season. That’s 14.1 combined WAR and 76 starts.
Then there is the question of gearing up and doing it all over again. So far, that hasn’t been an issue for this group, but maybe one of these years they’ll slog through the first three months. They do have money to spend, with a current estimated payroll about $119 million less than 2022’s, according to FanGraphs’ Roster Resource (and that includes an estimated $18 million for Cody Bellinger, whom they could non-tender).
Of course, this ranking could go up by the time spring training rolls around and the Dodgers have signed Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa and Edwin Diaz.
2022 record: 87-75 (third in the NL East)
2022 final ranking: 11
Will the playoff run carry over into 2023? Maybe we’re giving too much emphasis to what happened in October, but this was certainly a better team under manager Rob Thomson than it was under former skipper Joe Girardi. All the core players return, although we’ll have to see if Bryce Harper needs Tommy John surgery to repair the injured elbow that limited him to DH duties.
Look for the Phillies to be aggressive once again in free agency. They could turn down the $17 million club option on Jean Segura, move Bryson Stott to second base and go after one of the big free-agent shortstops: Correa, Turner, Swanson and Xander Bogaerts. I like what Brandon Marsh will give them on defense in center field. And keep an eye on Andrew Painter, the team’s first-round pick in 2021 who cruised through three levels of the minors in 2022 and could join the rotation at some point in 2023 as a 20-year-old.
2022 record: 86-76 (second in the NL Central)
2022 final ranking: 13
In the end, the Brewers fell one game short of the Phillies for the final playoff spot, and you can’t help but wonder how that script plays out if they don’t trade Josh Hader. Still, the Brewers are in a good position, especially with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff heading the rotation. They hope to get more than 78 innings from Freddy Peralta, and young lefty Aaron Ashby has breakout potential after fanning 126 in 107 1/3 innings.
They also have an influx of young outfielders ready to make an impact in 2023: Garrett Mitchell (who already reached the majors), Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick. The Brewers were second in the NL in home runs, so they play the modern power game, even though the Christian Yelich contract has turned into a financial drain. A big key for the upcoming season is finding the right bullpen depth behind closer Devin Williams.
2022 record: 92-70
2022 final ranking: 7
The Jays won 92 games, were second in the AL in runs and Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman were a great one-two punch in the rotation, but the season still left an air of “we thought they would be better than this.” Maybe that’s because they went 16-3 against the Red Sox while struggling to score runs against the Yankees and Rays.
Their biggest obstacle moving forward is they’re paying Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu and Yusei Kikuchi a combined $46 million in 2023. That trio combined for a 5.26 ERA in 2022, with Ryu likely to miss most of next season after Tommy John surgery. Do the Jays count on better seasons from Berrios and Kikuchi or make an addition to the rotation? The offense and Manoah/Gausman might still make them the division favorites, and the payroll already sits at $215 million, but imagine this team with Carlos Rodon as the No. 3 starter.
2022 record: 93-69 (first in the NL Central)
2022 final ranking: 6
With 15 consecutive winning seasons, it’s hard to place the Cardinals much lower than this, even with concerns about the starting pitching — although it helps that Adam Wainwright announced that he will not be joining Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols in retirement.
The Cardinals will likely figure out a way to keep Nolan Arenado from exercising his opt-out clause. They also have a wave of young position players who have reached the majors — Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera — or soon will, especially Jordan Walker, perhaps the best hitting prospect in the minors. Getting a bounce-back season from Tyler O’Neill is key, and Jack Flaherty is a wild card at this point, but adding another starter in free agency — or using the prospect depth for a trade — tops the to-do list.
2022 record: 90-72
2022 final ranking: 12
The Mariners finally ended their long playoff drought that stretched back to 2001, and Julio Rodriguez emerged as a star at age 21. They beat the Blue Jays in the wild-card series and played the Astros tough in the division series, despite being swept. What’s interesting is the perception that the Mariners were all pitching and no hitting, though T-Mobile Park kind of masks some of the team’s strengths.
They were eighth in the majors in wRC+ (weighed runs created) and 12th in ERA+, so the offense was arguably on the same level or better than the pitching staff. That said, given the depth in the rotation with full seasons ahead from Luis Castillo and George Kirby, as well as a deep bullpen, the Mariners will still be looking to add offense after watching that 18-inning loss to Houston. If they don’t re-sign Mitch Haniger, they’ll need an outfielder. They could also sign one of the shortstops and move J.P. Crawford to second base — although president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said the team intends to keep Crawford at shortstop.
11. New York Yankees
2022 record: 99-63
2022 final ranking: 5
Manager Brian Cashman has too much experience to overreact to yet another disappointing trip to the postseason that left the Yankees short of the World Series for the 13th consecutive season. However, this lineup without Judge looks old and potentially mediocre: Josh Donaldson will be 37, DJ LeMahieu 34, Giancarlo Stanton 33, Aaron Hicks 33 and Anthony Rizzo 33 (if he returns). The Yankees have some youth on the way in Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe, but on the pitching side, Jameson Taillon is a free agent and Frankie Montas wasn’t right after coming over from the A’s.
With Hal Steinbrenner refusing to spend at the Dodgers’ level, can the Yankees really construct a roster that would pay Judge, Stanton and Gerrit Cole a combined $102 million (with Judge at $34 million)? That’s a hefty price for three players. So don’t rule out the Yankees going to Plan B in the offseason.
2022 record: 92-70
2022 final ranking: 8
The Guardians brought some 1980s-style baseball to 2022: Slap and dash, with some great defense and a shutdown closer in Emmanuel Clase. It got them one win away from the American League Championship Series. Can they do it again? In the AL Central, absolutely. They have three clear positions where they can add offense:
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Catcher, where they ranked 29th in the majors in OPS.
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Designated hitter, where they ranked 29th with an unacceptable .587 OPS and just eight home runs.
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Center field, where Myles Straw meant the Guardians ranked last in OPS.
Of course, they love Straw’s defense and have him signed through 2026, so let’s see if they address catcher and DH. The other big offseason question: Will they look to trade Shane Bieber, who will make more than $10 million in arbitration and has two seasons remaining of team control? Let’s hope not, but this is also how the Guardians operate.
2022 record: 101-61 (second in the NL East)
2022 final ranking: 3
No team will have a busier offseason than the Mets. Check out this list of potential free agents: Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Jacob deGrom (opt out), Chris Bassitt (mutual option), Taijuan Walker (player option), Carlos Carrasco (team option) … plus Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Adam Ottavino. Whoa. The Mets basically have to rebuild or re-sign an entire pitching staff. Luckily, they have an owner who is willing to empty the checkbook in Steve Cohen. They do return a strong offensive foundation and they did win 101 games with Max Scherzer and deGrom making just 34 starts. They also have some interesting young position players ready to play: catcher Francisco Alvarez, third baseman Brett Baty and first baseman/third baseman Mark Vientos. But this offseason will be all about free agency and who the Mets get and how much they spend.
2022 record: 74-88 (fourth in the NL West)
2022 final ranking: 19
My sleeper team for 2023: the Diamondbacks, who could be really fun to watch, mostly because of an exciting young outfield. Top prospects Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas made their debuts and Jake McCarthy had a surprising second half. All three are burners: Carroll ranked in the 100th percentile in speed, McCarthy in the 98th and Thomas in the 95th. Part-time outfielder/part-time catcher Daulton Varsho isn’t as fast as those three but has elite defensive metrics. That group is going to chase down everything in the gaps — and all of them hit left-handed, which is interesting as well. Zac Gallen quietly went 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA — including six straight scoreless starts — and matched Verlander for the lowest batting average allowed among starters at .186.
Arizona went 34-36 in the second half and outscored its opponents. I like the direction here, especially if the Diamondbacks can find some pitching depth — maybe that will be rookie Drey Jameson and Ryne Nelson, who both impressed in September call-ups.
2022 record: 83-79 (fourth in AL East)
2022 final ranking: 14
Baltimore had one of the most surprising, out-of-nowhere seasons in major league history, improving from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 in 2022. You have to love where the Orioles are headed: Adley Rutschman looks like a future MVP candidate, Gunnar Henderson might not be far behind and pitcher Grayson Rodriguez might be ready to help in 2023 — with 2022 No. 1 overall pick Jackson Holliday now one of the game’s top prospects. I do wonder if some of the pitching overachieved this season, especially a bullpen that ranked ninth in ERA but 21st in strikeout rate. The rotation was also just 21st in the majors in ERA with only Jordan Lyles topping 130 innings. Let’s hope the Orioles dip into free agency here to help balance out some likely regression.
2022 record: 81-81 (third in the NL West)
2022 final ranking: 15
Look, the Giants weren’t going to win 107 games again. Was regression to .500 predictable? Probably. The offense fell from second in the NL in runs to seventh and the pitching/defense from second in runs allowed to ninth. While the mix-and-match offense didn’t repeat the same magic tricks it performed in 2021, the good news is the Giants have cleared a lot of payroll, which will allow them to go after a couple of big pieces — most notably, Judge, who grew up a couple of hours from San Francisco. More important than geography, the Giants have the money and the need to sign Judge. Of course, Oracle Park isn’t the best fit, but if he does leave the Yankees, the Giants might be the leading contender to sign him. Carlos Correa is also a possible fit (Brandon Crawford is signed for one more year), unless they think top prospect Marco Luciano is on track to replace Crawford in 2024. They’ll also need to replace Rodon in the rotation and there is a general concern about what was the second-oldest lineup in the majors this season.
2022 record: 81-81 (second in the AL Central)
2022 final ranking: 16
There are excuses to consider — Luis Robert, Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez all missed significant time with injuries — but the disappointing season was mostly the result of too many subpar performances on a roster that didn’t have quality depth to survive a few injuries.
On the bright side, four-fifths of the rotation returns with Dylan Cease perhaps the preseason AL Cy Young favorite after going 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts in 184 innings. Lucas Giolito (4.90 ERA) needs to figure out what went wrong, and Michael Kopech has to pitch deeper into games after averaging less than five innings per start. The lineup still needs some left-handed balance, and Yoan Moncada needs to bounce back (although his big 2019 season looks more and more like a juiced-ball fluke). The biggest problem, however, might be owner Jerry Reinsdorf and his unwillingness to spend a few extra pennies to, you know, try to win the World Series.
2022 record: 74-88 (third in the NL Central)
2022 final ranking: 22
Where are the Cubs right now? Good question. They had a plus-55 run differential against the lowly Reds and Pirates and minus-129 against everyone else, so consider that a point of reference.
Will the Cubs spend money this offseason? Who knows. Are pitchers Justin Steele (3.18 ERA) and Keegan Thompson (3.76 ERA) the real deal? Who knows. Is Christopher Morel the hitter we saw in the first half (.814 OPS) or the second half (.645 OPS)? Who knows. Will the Cubs go after one of the free-agent shortstops or stay with Nico Hoerner, who had excellent defensive metrics? Who knows. With Willson Contreras heading into free agency, who is the catcher for 2023? Who knows.
The Cubs’ payroll in 2022 was about $63 million less than in 2019. The estimated payroll heading into the offseason is about $147 million — about $90 million less (with Jason Heyward‘s $22 million finally coming off the books after 2023). Let’s see how aggressive they get.
2022 record: 65-97 (fifth in AL Central)
2022 final ranking: 25
Yes, there’s reason to be optimistic about the Royals, mostly because of the young core of rookie position players that came up in 2022: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto all have 30-homer potential. Drew Waters and Nate Eaton can at least pick it in the outfield.
Dayton Moore — GM since May of 2006 — is out and J.J. Picollo, his top lieutenant, takes over. Now it’s time to clear out the underachieving veterans such as Hunter Dozier and Ryan O’Hearn to play the kids full-time. I love the potential for this young lineup. The pitching, however, is another matter, since outside of Brady Singer, the young starters struggled. We’ll see if Picollo can figure out the pitching side of things.
2022 record: 73-89 (third in AL West)
2022 final ranking: 20
What a weird, wild, sad season — from Joe Maddon’s bases-loaded intentional walk (and eventual firing as manager) to Shohei Ohtani‘s all-around brilliance to Mike Trout‘s quiet monster season (40 home runs in 119 games) to owner Arte Moreno’s declaration that he will sell the team.
Moreno purchased the team for $180 million in 2003; Forbes valued the franchise at $2.2 billion in March. It’s not that he didn’t spend money — although the Angels refused to ever go beyond the luxury tax — it’s just how poorly he spent the money when he did, from Albert Pujols to Josh Hamilton to Justin Upton to Anthony Rendon. Sure, there is some bad luck in there, but the Angels now have the longest playoff drought in the majors — and face the prospect this offseason of whether to trade Ohtani. That seems unlikely — but if the Angels are out of it at the trade deadline, they might have to sense that Ohtani would appear guaranteed to bolt elsewhere in 2024.
2022 record: 78-84 record (third in the AL Central)
2022 final ranking: 18
They went 33-24 against the Royals, Tigers and White Sox — and 45-60 against everybody else. It was an especially disappointing season because the weak AL Central was there for the taking. The team that set a major league record with 307 home runs in 2019 was just seventh in the AL in 2022. The rotation was just 27th in innings pitched, and the bullpen wasn’t dominant enough (15th in ERA) to pick up the slack. Carlos Correa will leave after his one year in Minnesota, so now the Twins need a shortstop. Some of the top prospects haven’t taken off, whether due to injury (Royce Lewis) or performance (Austin Martin), Byron Buxton isn’t on the field often enough to be the team’s best player, and they could use a staff ace. It would be nice if the Pohlad brothers would pump the payroll a little higher considering the Twins haven’t been in the top half of payroll at any point in the past decade.
2022 record: 68-94 (fourth in the AL West)
2022 final ranking: 21
Ownership is growing impatient, given the firing in August of longtime executive Jon Daniels (with GM and former pitcher Chris Young taking over the top role). To be fair, a 15-35 record in one-run games means the team underperformed its Pythagorean record (77-85).
Texas hired Bruce Bochy with the expectation to win now. We’ll see about that. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien were more good than great in their first seasons, although I guess you can’t complain about 59 home runs from your middle infield (especially since Semien didn’t hit his first until the team’s 45th game). This team still needs starting pitching — and that’s with Martin Perez, the team’s best starter, heading to free agency — so that could make the Rangers one of the favorites to land deGrom.
2022 record: 78-84 (fifth in the AL East)
2022 final ranking: 17
It’s hard to know what to make of the Red Sox right now with two last-place finishes sandwiched around a playoff trip in 2021. Xander Bogaerts was their best player in 2022, and he’s expected to opt out of his player option and head into free agency. Boston can slide Trevor Story over to shortstop, although his arm strength is an issue, so maybe the Red Sox will sign another of the free-agent shortstops (or a stopgap until top prospect Marcelo Mayer is ready).
Their top two pitchers via WAR were Michael Wacha and John Schreiber, which is not a path to success, as the Red Sox finished 22nd in the majors in rotation ERA and 26th in bullpen ERA. Wacha, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill are all free agents, which is 69 starts to figure out. The hope is 30 of those will come from Chris Sale, who made just two starts in 2022 after suffering a stress fracture in his rib cage, a broken pinkie and then a fractured wrist in a bicycle accident.
Some veterans like Alex Verdugo and Enrique Hernandez are capable of better seasons, and the Red Sox have money to spend, but this feels like a roster in disarray.
2022 record: 69-93 (fourth in the NL East)
2022 final ranking: 23
The Marlins’ last winning record in a full season came back in 2009. Since 2010, they have the worst record in the majors. Where are the signs of improvement? Not counting the pandemic-shortened season when Miami did make the playoffs, the Marlins have averaged a 64-98 record since 2018. Nothing sums up the plight of this franchise more than the offseason signings of Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler for a combined $89 million (and the fourth- and sixth-largest free-agent contracts in franchise history). The two veterans combined for minus-0.7 WAR. And then you have Trevor Rogers, who had a great rookie season in 2021 and regressed to a 5.47 ERA. Outfielder JJ Bleday came up and hit .167. One step forward, two steps backward. Hey, at least Sandy Alcantara is awesome.
2022 record: 60-102 (fifth in the AL West)
2022 final ranking: 29
Billy Beane has been through rebuilds, but never before had the A’s lost 102 games under him. It was the worst season in Oakland since the infamous 1979 club lost 108 and averaged less than 4,000 fans per game. This team wasn’t much more watchable — at least the 1979 A’s had rookie Rickey Henderson. Like a lot of clubs, the A’s struggled big-time on offense: They had six players with at least 100 at-bats who hit under .200 and 13 under .225. Yuck. The starting rotation led the AL in home runs allowed, despite playing in a pitchers’ park. Lefties Ken Waldichuk and JP Sears, acquired from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas trade, dominated the minors and will be given shots in the rotation. The A’s need them to develop into quality starters, but the franchise’s inability or unwillingness to spend money means the offense will probably struggle once again.
2022 record: 62-100 (tied for fourth in the NL Central)
2022 final ranking: 28
The Pirates followed up a 101-loss season with 100 losses, so you can say they improved — or you can point out it was their first back-to-back 100-loss seasons since 1954, which is saying something considering the Pirates have had just four winning seasons out of the past 30. A lot of the hope in Pittsburgh rests on the mercurial talents of Oneil Cruz, who displayed dazzling raw power, arm strength and speed, but also a terrifying strikeout rate and questionable range at shortstop. The biggest offseason question is whether the Pirates will trade away center fielder Bryan Reynolds.
2022 record: 68-94 (fifth in the NL West)
2022 final ranking: 24
Hey, let’s just let owner Dick Monfort speak for the 2022 season: “Our road record was abysmal, our defense was not what we are accustomed to, our situational hitting was disappointing, and our pitching was inconsistent,” he wrote in a letter to fans. “Excuses serve no purpose, and we are committed to devoting all our efforts this offseason to improving this team for 2023.” The problem is the Rockies don’t seem to realize they’re not good and are happy enough signing Kris Bryant and thinking that’s all they need to do. Imagine if they did something creative: Sign Aaron Judge! Let him hit 72 home runs at Coors Field! Instead, it will be more of the same, followed by another inevitable Monfort letter apologizing for another bad season.
2022 record: 62-100 (tied for fourth in the NL Central)
2022 final ranking: 26
They started out 3-22, tied for the worst 25-game start in the wild-card era (since 1995). They finished 59-78 … and, well, that’s still bad. There were a lot of bad teams in 2022. Too many. That’s for another discussion. As for the Reds, they’re in the early stages of a teardown and rebuild — not that they’re tearing down from much success, the high point being a playoff berth during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. I like Hunter Greene‘s potential — he had a 1.02 ERA over his final six starts, although those were sandwiched around a shoulder injury. Nick Lodolo also has top-end potential in the rotation. But the team’s best position player in 2022 was Triple-A vagabond Brandon Drury, who ended the season with the Padres. Really, it seems like owner Bob Castellini is just counting down the days until after the 2023 season when he can buy out Joey Votto‘s last season (sorry, Joey!) and Mike Moustakas — and be in position to run perhaps the lowest payroll in the league. Enjoy, Reds fans!
2022 record: 66-96 (fourth in the AL Central)
2022 final ranking: 27
Well, that was ugly. Javier Baez led the team with just 17 home runs. The offense posted the worst wRC+ in the majors and scored the fewest runs. Tarik Skubal led the Tigers with just 21 starts and closer Gregory Soto lost 11 games. Preseason Rookie of the Year candidate Spencer Torkelson hit his way back to Triple-A and finished with minus-1.3 WAR. Casey Mize underwent Tommy John surgery. Owner Chris Ilitch fired general manager Al Avila in August. I’m trying to find something positive to say here, but it’s hard. Good luck to Scott Harris, who comes over from the Giants to run baseball operations.
2022 record: 55-107 (fifth in the NL East)
2022 final ranking: 30
This is the easiest call on the board. The Nationals had the majors’ worst record, the worst run differential and are also in the process of being sold. The big league roster is devoid of frontline talent and depth and there is no reason to spend in free agency. Oh, and they play in a loaded division. Even the young players who are supposed to be the foundation for the future struggled: Starter Josiah Gray allowed both the most home runs and walks in the NL, and shortstop CJ Abrams had a .276 OBP with no home runs in 163 plate appearances with Nationals (drawing just one walk). The Juan Soto trade added a couple of intriguing outfield prospects in James Wood and Robert Hassell III, who perhaps gets a look in 2023. The Nats are a good bet to lose 100 again — and, remember, the top six choices in the draft are now done via lottery, so they’re not even guaranteed the top overall pick in 2023 (or 2024).
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J-Rod 2B gives M’s 1st home playoff win since ’01
Published
6 hours agoon
October 6, 2025By
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Alden GonzalezOct 5, 2025, 11:53 PM ET
Close- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
SEATTLE — Another sold-out crowd went into its customary “Ju-lio!” chant in Sunday’s eighth inning, but this one felt louder, deeper, more desperate, almost as if you could feel the anticipation that comes from 24 years without a playoff home win in his city. Julio Rodriguez, the Seattle Mariners‘ beloved center fielder and one of the sport’s best producers over these last three months, responded by hitting the line drive that drove in Cal Raleigh for the go-ahead run, then arrived at second base, punched the frigid October air, flexed for 47,371 T-Mobile Park fans and, mostly, fed off their energy.
“I kind of looked around a little bit,” Rodriguez said after powering a nail-biting, 3-2 victory over the Detroit Tigers. “I could see everybody jumping around, and that made me feel really good. It was an awesome moment.”
Facing Tigers ace Tarik Skubal with the possibility of going to Detroit down two-games-to-none in this best-of-five American League Division Series, the Mariners rode an impressive pitching performance and two Jorge Polanco home runs to take a two-run lead heading into the eighth inning. And after Josh Naylor’s error paved the way for Spencer Torkelson’s game-tying double, the Mariners, one of baseball’s hottest teams since reaching their nadir in early September, responded yet again. Raleigh hit a one-out double off Kyle Finnegan, Rodriguez did the same, and Andres Munoz, asked to take down two innings for the first time in six years a night earlier, closed it out in the ninth.
For the first time since Oct. 15, 2001, site of the decisive game of that year’s ALDS, the people of Seattle could witness a playoff win first-hand.
“For us, it means a lot to give the fans what they deserve,” Munoz said. “I’ve been here for a little bit, and they deserve this.”
Skubal knows the Mariners’ struggle well. Long before solidifying himself as the AL’s greatest pitcher, Skubal pitched at nearby Seattle University, the only Division-I school that would offer him a scholarship. As a way to help pay it forward, and inspire kids hoping to follow his path of going from a ninth-round pick to a Cy Young, Skubal invited the entire Seattle University baseball team to watch him pitch.
The Tigers were coming off a gritty effort in which they utilized seven pitchers in 11 innings to practically steal Game 1. Skubal, five days removed from a 14-strikeout masterpiece in the wild-card round, hoped to put his Tigers on the brink. But Polanco got in his way. In the fourth, Skubal left a 2-0 slider out over the plate and Polanco lined it into the Mariners’ left-center-field bullpen, resulting in the first home run Skubal had allowed on that pitch since May 20. In the sixth, Skubal got ahead into the count, 1-2, but Polanco worked it full, then got a middle-middle sinker at 99 mph and sent it 369 feet.
“It’s a good at-bat,” Skubal said. “Two good swings on baseballs, and that’s how I five up runs tonight. I thought my stuff was really, really good. I thought my execution was great. But that’s the game of baseball.”
Polanco navigated the worst season of his career in 2024, putting up a .651 OPS after the Mariners acquired him from the Minnesota Twins. He spent a lot of that year playing hurt, ultimately undergoing surgery on his left knee shortly after the team’s season ended. The Mariners, scrambling for infield help in February, brought him back on a deal that would pay him $7 million in 2025 and saw him morph into one of their best performers down the stretch.
From the start of July to the end of September, Polanco slashed .282/.348/.551, ranking 11th in the majors in OPS. And when the Mariners needed a win most, he became the first player in four years — Paul Goldschmidt on Aug. 25, 2021 — to hit two home runs in one game against Skubal.
“He’s such a good baseball player,” Rodriguez said. “He’s a grinder. All year long he’s been having great at-bats, coming clutch in so many situations. And today, to have hit two homers against the best pitcher in the game right now — it’s awesome. There is not enough words to describe what he means to the team.”
Luis Castillo, a man known to feed off the home crowd in Seattle, got the Game 2 assignment and needed 51 pitches to record the game’s first six outs. A short start, coming off a night in which the Mariners taxed their bullpen, seemed likely. But Castillo completed the third and fourth innings with just 18 pitches. In the fifth, Mariners manager Dan Wilson confronted the same situation that presented itself the prior night: fifth inning, traffic on the bases, left-handed hitter Kerry Carpenter up, lefty reliever Gabe Speier warming in the bullpen.
“Déjà vu all over again,” Wilson said.
Twenty-four hours earlier, Wilson entrusted George Kirby to face Carpenter a third time and watched him surrender a two-run homer. This time, he turned to Speier, who struck out Carpenter to end the fifth, then cruised through the middle of the Mariners’ lineup in the sixth. Eduard Bazardo followed by stranding a runner in the seventh. Matt Brash seemed primed to do the same in the top of the eighth, but Riley Greene’s grounder, a potential inning-ending double play, ricocheted off Naylor’s glove at first base. Five pitches later, Torkelson deflated an entire city with a game-tying double down the right-field line.
“Just keep going,” Raleigh recalled thinking. “In the playoffs, you have to have a short memory.”
Raleigh, the franchise catcher coming off a historic 60-homer season, responded by turning on a splitter out over the plate and drove it toward the right-field wall. Rodriguez, arguably the game’s best player since the All-Star break, followed by turning on another splitter in almost the exact location and lining it down the left-field line, bringing Seattle back to life.
“It was awesome,” Rodriguez said. “These are things I dreamed of as a kid.”
Mariners fans waited 21 years after that 116-win 2001 season for their baseball team to get back into the playoffs. When they finally did, in 2022, the Mariners won back-to-back wild-card games in Toronto but suffered two brutal ALDS losses in Houston, came back home, played 18 innings and lost 1-0, ending a promising season. The next few years were mired by late-season collapses that left them out of the playoffs, which only added more pressure on a 2025 team widely considered the most talented of this generation. Raleigh called getting that first home playoff win “a nice weight to get off the guy’s shoulders.”
They hope for several more.
Sports
Van Gisbergen wins 5th straight road course race
Published
10 hours agoon
October 6, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Oct 5, 2025, 07:48 PM ET
CONCORD, N.C. — Shane van Gisbergen won his fifth consecutive race on a road or street course Sunday with a victory at Charlotte Motor Speedway, where reigning Cup Series champion Joey Logano narrowly moved on to the third round of NASCAR’s playoffs in a nail-biter with Ross Chastain.
Logano found himself in a close race against Chastain, who was below the cutline and in danger of elimination until Logano failed to put together a strong enough race on the hybrid road course/oval at Charlotte.
Chastain seemed to have Logano on the ropes until a last-lap collision with Denny Hamlin sent Chastain spinning. He crossed the finish line backward in 21st, one spot behind Logano.
An animated Hamlin on pit road complained to his No. 11 crew that he was not made aware of the situation and would not have passed Chastain had he known it would benefit three-time Cup Series champion Logano.
“I didn’t know anything about anything on that last run, I wasn’t very good,” Hamlin said. “I saw (Chastain) and I didn’t know anything about anything going on. I didn’t know. I thought I was racing for about 18th. I just wish I knew so I could have been either prepared or made a different decision.”
The field was cut from 12 drivers to eight after the race. Logano’s fate was never really considered as most believed the final slot in the playoff field would go to a driver below the cutline and only if van Gisbergen was finally stopped.
Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell both put tough challenges on van Gisbergen, but the New Zealander emerged from a car-slamming battle with Larson through the turns with 14 laps remaining and took the lead for good with 11 laps remaining.
That eliminated any shot for Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace of 23XI Racing, or Austin Cindric of Team Penske, claiming the final playoff position. Chastain of Trackhouse Racing remained in the hunt, though, as Logano could never get his Penske Ford running well enough to secure his spot in the playoffs.
“Everybody was telling me how close it was going to be there. We’re still in. We’re still alive, baby,” Logano said as he reveled in a loud chorus of fan booing. “I knew it was within a point there and I knew we were going to be tied there at the end and Ross was going to do whatever he had to do to make it happen.
“If you want drama, the playoffs bring it every time. What an entertaining finish there. We’ve still got a shot.”
It was similar to a year ago when Logano left Charlotte eliminated from the playoffs, only to learn hours later while having dinner with his family that Alex Bowman had been disqualified and Logano was back in the field. He went on to win the Cup Series championship.
Logano made a late pit stop for fresh tires, Chastain did not, and Chastain was forced to race the final stretch trying to make his old Goodyears last long enough to get into the round of eight.
“Unforced errors, it’s just terrible,” Chastain said of two early race speeding penalties that made him want to “start the whole day over.”
“It’s heartbreaking for almost 200 employees at Trackhouse,” Chastain said. “It’s not acceptable, just completely unacceptable. To get here and fail is a terrible feeling. I will wake up tomorrow and get right back to work.”
The eight drivers moving on to the third round of the playoffs are Ryan Blaney and Logano of Penske, Chase Elliott, Larson and William Byron of Hendrick Motorsports, Hamlin, Bell and Chase Briscoe of Joe Gibbs Racing.
Chastain, Cindric, Reddick and Wallace were eliminated — which takes both of the Michael Jordan-owned cars out of title contention.
Sports
How shocking upsets and near misses of Week 6 impact conference, CFP races
Published
11 hours agoon
October 6, 2025By
admin
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Bill ConnellyOct 5, 2025, 06:55 PM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
On Oct. 26, 1985, UTEP pulled one of the biggest upsets in WAC history, holding BYU’s Robbie Bosco to 15-for-35 passing with four interceptions and upsetting the No. 7 Cougars — the defending national champions — in a 23-16 shocker. BYU had won 30 of its previous 31 games heading into the game, and UTEP had begun the season 0-6.
Until Saturday, that was the last time a team that was 0-4 or worse had knocked off a top-10 opponent. But almost 40 years after that wild upset at the Sun Bowl, a sparse Rose Bowl crowd witnessed an upset of similar circumstance. UCLA’s 42-37 win over Penn State was the most stunning result of the 2025 season to date, and combined with Florida’s 29-21 win over Texas in The Swamp — a much more normal upset, as far as those things go — it severely wounded the College Football Playoff odds of what were the top two teams in the preseason AP poll
The rest of Week 6 was more about missed upset opportunities than shockers, but taking down the preseason top two is quite the paradigm shifter. Let’s look back at the most important developments of Week 6.
The biggest upset in 40 years (by one definition, at least)
Each week in my Friday preview column, I search for what I call the Chaos Superfecta, in which I look for four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together into a much more upset-friendly number. This past Friday, I declared that we would be taking down a Big Ten favorite, noting that there was only a 55% chance that Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois and Nebraska all would win. As it turns out, I wasn’t aiming high enough. UCLA’s pregame win probability, per SP+, was 2.1%; the Bruins’ upset was actually too chaotic to be considered for the Chaos Superfecta.
We know how huge upsets tend to play out. The losing favorite turns the ball over too many times (usually with a healthy dose of bad luck), settles for too many field goals and bottoms out on third or fourth down. They win a majority of the plays but lose the wrong ones.
Penn State did lose a fumble to start the second half, and the Nittany Lions’ combined 5-for-12 performance on third and fourth down wasn’t terrible but wasn’t amazing either. But the Nittany Lions produced a 52.6% success rate*, well above the national average of 44.8%, and they averaged a healthy 6.3 yards per play.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
Drew Allar, so maligned for big-game performances through the years, was quite good, completing 19 of 26 passes for 200 yards and rushing 10 times (not including one sack) for 89 yards. Aside from an early three-and-out, PSU moved the ball well all game until an all-timer of a fourth-and-short stop by UCLA’s defense in the final minute.
The culprit, instead, was a Penn State defense that has been as good as virtually any in the nation over the past four seasons.
Since the start of 2022, only five teams have gained at least 430 yards on the Nittany Lions: No. 5 Michigan and No. 2 Ohio State in 2022, No. 11 Ole Miss in 2023, No. 1 Oregon in 2024 … and UCLA on Saturday. That’s the same UCLA team that gained just 326 yards on New Mexico in Week 3 and 220 against Utah in its season opener.
Well, I guess it wasn’t the same UCLA. This one had Jerry Neuheisel calling plays after offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri followed fired head coach DeShaun Foster out the door this past week. Neuheisel’s notice was short enough that he hadn’t even mastered the headset yet.
UCLA OC Jerry Neuheisel had never practiced with the headset before today’s game – but it all worked out 😂 pic.twitter.com/oVelZaEa7c
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 5, 2025
Neuheisel called the game like UCLA played it: with nothing to lose. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has spent much of his career looking as though he’s torn between showing off his athleticism and trying to be a pro-style QB prototype by staying in the pocket and making plays with his arm. That has resulted in far too much indecision and far too many sacks over the last season and a half. But he was unlocked Saturday, taking his customary three sacks but otherwise rushing 13 times for 150 yards and three touchdowns. He moved the chains on third down four times with his arm and four times with his legs.
The Bruins sliced down the field for a touchdown to start the game, recovered a surprise onside kick and took a 10-point lead before Penn State could actually touch the ball. They outgained the shell-shocked Nittany Lions by a 285-92 margin in the first half, in part because PSU got the ball only three times, and took a 27-7 lead into halftime. But when the Nittany Lions scored a touchdown, then blocked a punt for another score, to cut the lead to 27-21 midway through the third quarter, it was fair to assume what was going to happen next: Here’s where the slow-starting favorite shifts into gear and wins by two touchdowns, right? Even ESPN’s in-game win probability model shifted to favor the Nittany Lions.
Instead, UCLA immediately drove 75 yards for a touchdown, and when PSU scored in response, UCLA went another 75 yards for a score. Things got tense late, and the Nittany Lions, down 42-35 in the final minute, had a chance to tie the game up. But Scooter Jackson led a host of defenders in stuffing Allar on fourth-and-2, and the Bruins saw out the unbelievable upset.
Even if you had told me in advance that UCLA would win this game, I would have given “Allar plays well, but the defense gets torched, and the Nittany Lions lose at the line of scrimmage on almost every key occasion” betting odds of about +1000. Penn State was without injured star linebacker Tony Rojas, but my goodness, the school didn’t spend unearthly sums of money prying defensive coordinator Jim Knowles away from Ohio State to give up 42 points to UCLA.
This was only James Franklin’s third loss as a favorite of 14 or more points at Penn State – he’s now 56-3 in such games, a 0.949 win percentage that is better than almost any team’s in the country. Maybe the Nittany Lions were just due an absolute nonsense performance; maybe no one can limit uncertainty to such an upset-proof degree.
Regardless, this is a devastating loss. With back-to-back games against Ohio State (second in SP+) and Indiana (third) coming up in November, the Nittany Lions were already looking at probably needing to at least split those games to feel good about their playoff chances. Now they probably have to beat both the Buckeyes and Hoosiers, and with their SP+ rating falling off a cliff following Saturday’s result, they’re projected to have only a 1.6% chance of winning out to reach 10-2.
This was the all-in year for Penn State, with the school ponying up not only for Knowles but also to keep stars such as Allar, running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton in town for one more season. Now their most likely record, per SP+, is 7-5, and their Big Ten title odds are currently 11th in the conference, lower than those of even Iowa or Maryland.
Big Ten title odds, per SP+
Ohio State 26.9%
Oregon 25.8%
Indiana 17.7%
Michigan 9.7%
USC 5.1%
Washington 4.3%
Illinois 3.6%
Nebraska 2.9%
Iowa 1.3%
Maryland 1.2%
Penn State 0.6%
Oof.
Florida over Texas, aka the rise of the disappointing QB
One of the stories of September was how many high-upside quarterbacks were falling miles short of expectations. When I ranked all the power-conference quarterbacks last week, Texas’ Arch Manning ranked 41st, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik ranked 54th, UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava ranked 58th and Florida’s DJ Lagway ranked 61st. All were mega-blue-chip recruits, Klubnik and Iamaleava had piloted playoff teams last season, Lagway had flashed signs of true-freshman brilliance down the stretch and Manning began this season as the betting favorite for the Heisman. All were among the bottom 40% of P4 QBs.
On Saturday, Iamaleava torched Penn State, and Klubnik went 22-for-24 for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns as Clemson absolutely pasted North Carolina. Lagway, meanwhile, drastically outdueled Manning as Florida toppled Texas.
Against what was the No. 1 defense in the country, per SP+, Lagway completed 21 of 28 passes for 298 yards and two scores, and after suffering far too many sacks and turnovers in September, he threw one pick with no sacks. Jadan Baugh rushed for 107 yards, and blue-chip freshman Dallas Wilson caught six passes for 111 yards and two touchdowns, including this utterly ridiculous 55-yarder.
0:25
Freshman Dallas Wilson makes unbelievable 55-yard TD catch
Dallas Wilson is able to stay inbounds after the catch and runs in for the Florida touchdown.
The Gators averaged 7.0 yards per play with a 48% success rate against a defense that seemed even more elite than Penn State’s. Only two turnovers and two field goals kept Florida under 30 points. Lagway has consistently pressed this season, trying far too hard to make something happen for a struggling team. On Saturday, he was wonderfully in control.
Manning, meanwhile, had yet another frustrating game. He did complete passes of 22, 26, 33, 38 and 42 yards, with a 36-yard run to boot, but he was just 16-for-29 for the game and threw two picks with six sacks. He continues to lose his footwork and misfire on loads of passes when pressured, he continues to get absolutely no help from his offensive line, and he continues to trust his athleticism too much to bail him out of trouble.
Texas has played five games this season: three against teams ranked 97th or worse in SP+ and two against teams ranked 33rd or better. Texas is 3-0 against the former but 0-2 against the latter. Life in the SEC gives the team plenty of chances to stockpile marquee wins if it gets its act together. But the Longhorns have fallen to 20th in SP+, thanks to an offense that currently ranks 53rd, and saying they still have 5-0 Oklahoma, 5-0 Texas A&M, 4-1 Georgia and 5-1 Vanderbilt on the schedule sounds far more threatening than hopeful. At this point, the Longhorns’ most likely projected record is 7-5, and they’re currently 10th on the SEC title odds list.
SEC title odds, per SP+
Ole Miss 17.0%
Alabama 15.5%
Oklahoma 15.5%
Missouri 11.7%
Texas A&M 9.9%
Georgia 7.3%
Tennessee 6.0%
LSU 5.7%
Vanderbilt 3.3%
Texas 2.8%
The Horns will have a shot at an immediate rebound against Oklahoma in Dallas this coming Saturday, but any hope Texas fans can derive from their team likely facing Sooners backup quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. is offset by the fact that OU ranks second in defensive SP+, 16 spots higher than the Florida defense that just made Manning’s life hell.
Missed opportunities in Tallahassee and Tuscaloosa
Turnovers have been at the root of many upsets through the years, but turnovers also prevented a couple of underdogs from making favorites sweat Saturday.
No. 10 Alabama 30, No. 16 Vanderbilt 14
A lot of Saturday’s Bama-Vandy game in Tuscaloosa played close to the typical upset script. Alabama moved the ball with ruthless efficiency overall but suffered a few negative plays and an ill-timed turnover and scored touchdowns on just one of its first five red zone trips. The Crimson Tide let Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt hang around in exactly the type of way teams often end up ruing. But unlike last season, Vandy couldn’t hold up its end of the upset bargain.
Pavia lost a fumble at the Bama 8 as the Commodores were attempting to expand an early 7-0 lead, then Pavia was picked off by Keon Sabb at the Bama 7 early in the fourth quarter, when Vandy, down 20-14, had a chance to take the lead again. As efficient and gutsy as Pavia can be, you can’t waste opportunities like that. Bama scored 10 late points to pull away.
Now, Bama was easily the superior team. The Tide outgained the ‘Dores by 153 yards and 0.9 yards per play, with a better success rate (49.3% to 46.3%) and more big plays (gains of 20-plus on 10.1% of their snaps to Vandy’s 5.6%). Jam Miller, who missed most of September because of injury, rushed 22 times for 136 yards, and Ty Simpson‘s primary receiver trio — Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton — combined for 15 catches and 246 yards. But they left the door ajar with their red zone failures, and it felt almost surprising when Vandy didn’t take advantage.
In the past two weeks, Bama has beaten Georgia for a second straight year and avenged last year’s loss to Vandy. The challenges are only beginning — the Tide’s next two opponents (Missouri and Tennessee) are each in the SP+ top 10, and both LSU (17th) and Oklahoma (fifth) will visit Tuscaloosa in November — but these were two huge hurdles to clear, and they’re in good shape in the SEC race because of it.
No. 3 Miami 28, No. 18 Florida State 22
Through the first four games of 2025, Florida State might have had the best scripted plays in college football. Over the first 15 plays of a game, the Seminoles were averaging 10.5 yards per play, first in the country. For that matter, their first four snaps Saturday night gained 51 yards as they quickly drove into Miami’s red zone. But the momentum ceased. Over their next 37 snaps, they averaged just 3.5 yards per play with two turnovers. And after a third turnover, they found themselves down 28-3.
Without the turnovers, however, they might have had a chance. The FSU defense did its part, more or less, losing receivers Malachi Toney and CJ Daniels for a quartet of big gains but otherwise allowing just 3.3 yards per play over 55 snaps and forcing five punts with three three-and-outs. Miami scored just enough that, when FSU’s offense finally got going late, the Noles couldn’t quite catch up, but without the self-inflicted wounds, the ending might have been much more interesting. Regardless, after a tough overtime loss to overtime masters Virginia last week — the Cavaliers beat Louisville in OT as well Saturday — FSU didn’t give itself a shot at a rebound opportunity.
At the heart of FSU’s sudden regression has been a relative loss of form for quarterback Tommy Castellanos. Even as the Noles began the season brilliantly, I couldn’t shake the memory of last year, when Castellanos followed a brilliant start at Boston College with a collapse.
Castellanos’ first three games of 2024: 83.5 Total QBR, 64.8% completion rate, 9.5 yards per dropback, 8.5% sack rate
Rest of the season: 17.9 Total QBR, 59.8% completion rate, 5.9 yards per dropback, 11.6% sack rate
Castellanos and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn fit beautifully together, and his ceiling is higher at FSU than it was at BC. But after an almost perfect three-game start, it appears opponents are once again adjusting well to his unique skill set. Virginia and Miami both hemmed him in and forced him to throw more passes instead of scrambling for downfield yards, and it limited his effectiveness.
Castellanos’ first three games of 2025: 92.5 Total QBR, 71.1% completion rate, 13.8 yards per dropback, 0.0% sack rate
Last two games: 58.9 Total QBR, 55.8% completion rate, 6.3 yards per dropback, 4.9% sack rate
It’s still baffling that Bama didn’t understand the assignment in the season opener and allowed Castellanos to repeatedly escape the pocket, but Virginia and Miami put him in more awkward situations. FSU should still score plenty of points and win plenty of games — SP+ gives them a 66% chance of finishing 8-4 or better, which is a massive rebound after last year’s 2-10 collapse. But any hopes of an ACC title charge or playoff bid are pretty much toast.
ACC title odds, per SP+
Miami 32.9%
Duke 15.7%
Georgia Tech 13.4%
Virginia 12.4%
Louisville 9.4%
SMU 6.6%
Pitt 5.2%
Florida State 1.2%
FSU fans probably would have probably welcomed an 8-4 record before the season began, but the win over Bama set a bar too high for the Seminoles to clear.
Cincinnati over Iowa State and the new Big 12 race
No. 11 Texas Tech 35, Houston 11
Hey, guess what: Texas Tech looked fantastic again. Even while settling for too many field goals (like Alabama), the Red Raiders still led previously unbeaten Houston by at least 12 points for the game’s final 46 minutes, more than doubled the Cougars’ yardage (552-267) and cruised to victory. They’re projected favorites by double digits in every remaining regular-season game, per SP+, and have a 36% chance of reaching 12-0. They have better conference title odds than any other power-conference team.
Big 12 title odds, per SP+
Texas Tech 38.2%
BYU 12.7%
Cincinnati 10.0%
Utah 9.8%
Arizona State 7.2%
TCU 5.1%
Arizona 5.0%
Iowa State 4.4%
Kansas 3.9%
Overall, the Big 12 slate was as chaotic as ever, with three games decided by one score — including a last-second goal-line stand for Kansas (27-20 over UCF) and a last-minute field goal for Baylor (35-34 over Kansas State). Unbeaten BYU didn’t look amazing against West Virginia on Friday night but never really had to sweat either, and Baylor, TCU and Kansas were able to overcome early-season losses and remain in the title race.
Cincinnati 38, No. 14 Iowa State 30
Iowa State couldn’t remain unbeaten, however. The Cyclones allowed points on all of Cincinnati’s first-half drives, fell behind 31-7 and couldn’t get closer than nine points until the final two minutes. Cincy’s Evan Pryor and Tawee Walker combined for 167 rushing yards in the first half alone, quarterback Brendan Sorsby did Sorsby things (214 passing yards, 64 rushing yards), and Cincinnati won its fourth straight game since a Week 1 heartbreaker against Nebraska. This wasn’t a flawless performance — the Bearcats committed a mind-numbing run of penalties early in the fourth quarter and gained just 53 yards in their first 16 second-half snaps before putting the game away with a long Caleb Goodie touchdown — but it established their spot in the title race, and if the defense can more frequently perform as it did in the first half Saturday, they could remain in the race for a while.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Old Dominion: up 5.2 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 65th to 50th)
Ball State: up 4.6 points (from 129th to 126th)
UConn: up 4.5 points (from 77th to 66th)
Florida: up 4.3 points (from 47th to 33rd)
New Mexico State: up 4.2 points (from 128th to 121st)
Pitt: up 4.1 points (from 41st to 30th)
UCLA: up 4.1 points (from 100th to 87th)
Northwestern: up 4.0 points (from 80th to 71st)
Akron: up 3.7 points (from 131st to 128th)
Notre Dame: up 3.6 points (from 19th to eighth)
Florida, UCLA and Northwestern all enjoyed course corrections after strong performances, and SP+ was particularly impressed with what Notre Dame did to Boise State – by the stats, the Irish’s 28-7 win looked like a 33-point win. But can we talk about Old Dominion for a second? Quarterback Colton Joseph is averaging 15 yards per completion and 8.3 yards per carry and is up to 17th in Total QBR, and the 5-1 Monarchs’ only blemish was a competitive loss against Indiana. They beat Virginia Tech, and their average score against three non-power conference-opponents is 41-7. They play James Madison in two weeks in what is quickly becoming one of the biggest Group of 5 games of the season.
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Penn State: down 6.4 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from fourth to 16th)
Mississippi State: down 5.0 points (from 27th to 43rd)
Minnesota: down 4.5 points (from 45th to 60th)
Vanderbilt: down 4.1 points (from 11th to 21st)
Boston College: down 4.1 points (from 75th to 86th)
Oklahoma State: down 4.1 points (from 103rd to 116th)
North Carolina: down 4.0 points (from 86th to 101st)
Coastal Carolina: down 4.0 points (from 123rd to 129th)
Iowa State: down 3.9 points (from 26th to 37th)
Florida International: down 3.9 points (from 121st to 127th)
We saw a number of terribly disappointing teams continuing to fall this week — Boston College, Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Coastal — but it probably isn’t a surprise to see which team leads this list. Penn State still ranks 16th overall but only because it takes a while to fall from near the top.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Nico Iamaleava, UCLA (17-for-24 passing for 166 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 150 non-sack rushing yards and 3 TDs against Penn State).
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (23-for-27 passing for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns against Minnesota).
3. Eli Heidenreich, Navy (8 catches for 243 yards and 3 touchdowns against Air Force).
4. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (19-for-22 passing for 390 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 non-sack rushing yards against Purdue).
5. Jakobe Thomas, Miami (5 tackles, a sack, an interception, two pass breakups and a forced fumble against Florida State).
6. Colton Joseph, Old Dominion (17-for-30 passing for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 67 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Coastal Carolina).
7. Blake Horvath, Navy (20-for-26 passing for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 130 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Air Force).
8. Ty Simpson, Alabama (23-for-31 passing for 340 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 21 non-sack rushing yards against Vanderbilt).
9. Carnell Tate, Ohio State (nine catches for 183 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota).
10. DJ Lagway, Florida (21-for-28 passing for 298 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT against Texas).
Iamaleava was the obvious choice this week, but Sayin is starting to make an admittedly easy job — throwing to Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate — look really, really easy. In four games since the Buckeyes’ win over Texas, he has completed 88 of 106 passes (83%!) for 1,187 yards, 14 touchdowns and 3 picks, none in the past two games. He can still be fooled occasionally (which makes sense since he’s a redshirt freshman), but it’s becoming increasingly rare.
Honorable mention:
• David Bailey, Texas Tech (3 tackles, all TFLs, 2 sacks, a forced fumble and a QB hurry against Houston).
• Carson Beck, Miami (20-for-27 passing for 241 yards and 4 touchdowns against Florida State).
• Hank Beatty, Illinois (5 catches for 186 yards and a touchdown against Purdue).
• Jordan Gant, Akron (32 carries for 176 yards, plus 28 receiving yards and a touchdown against Central Michigan).
• Mason Heintschel, Pitt (30-for-41 passing for 323 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 42 non-sack rushing yards against Boston College).
• Cashius Howell, Texas A&M (3 tackles, all sacks, and a pass breakup against Mississippi State)
• Cade Klubnik, Clemson (22-for-24 passing for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns against North Carolina).
• Jam Miller, Alabama (22 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown, plus 8 receiving yards against Vanderbilt).
• Naeten Mitchell, New Mexico State (10 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 pass breakups and a pick-six against Sam Houston).
Through six weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (24 points)
2. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
3T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (15)
3T. Taylen Green, Arkansas (15)
5. Jayden Maiava, USC (12)
6T. Jonah Coleman, Washington (10)
6T. Nico Iamaleava, UCLA (10)
6T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (10)
6T. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (10)
6T. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10)
With four top-10 appearances in the past five weeks, Ty Simpson, the No. 4 overall betting favorite, has built a bit of a cushion for himself as we approach the midway point of the season. (Betting favorite Carson Beck has yet to make an appearance on our list, which is odd.) Meanwhile … hello there, Luke Altmyer! He has finished second and fourth in the past two weeks while going a combined 39-for-48 for 618 yards and 3 touchdowns. Since getting stomped by Indiana, the Illinois offense has been nearly unstoppable.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1. UCLA 42, No. 7 Penn State 37. Obviously.
2-3. FCS: Georgetown 27, Morgan State 24; Division II: West Liberty 47, West Virginia State 41. The smaller-school ranks gave us a pair of Hail Mary-esque finishes this week.
First, after watching an early 14-0 lead turn into a late 24-21 deficit, Georgetown’s Dez Thomas II found Jimmy Kibble for a 49-yard score to take down Morgan State at the buzzer.
HAIL MARY TO KIBBLE FOR THE WIN!#HoyaSaxa #HoyaBold #DefendTheDistrict #SISU https://t.co/CLGmxgiUPv pic.twitter.com/C2VrowGbMW
— Georgetown Football (@HoyasFB) October 4, 2025
Then, at the end of a 40-point fourth quarter that had already given us an 80-yard Antevious Jackson-to-Hunter Patterson touchdown pass, Jackson found Osama Hurst for 40 yards to turn a tie game into a West Liberty win.
BALLGAME! West Liberty beats West Virginia State on the final play of the game – a 40-yard TD pass from Antevious Jackson to Osama Hurst. Hilltoppers 47, Yellow Jackets 41. #MECFB pic.twitter.com/8exKcZ1yLF
— Mountain East Conf. (@TheMountainEast) October 4, 2025
4. Arkansas State 31, Texas State 30. Oof, Texas State. The Bobcats’ defense mostly shut Arkansas State down for three quarters and took three separate leads in the fourth. But ASU drove the length of the field to tie each time, and when Lincoln Pare scored to give Texas State the lead with a minute left, Tyler Robles missed the PAT after a poor snap. That opened the door, and Jaylen Raynor‘s short touchdown with seven seconds left — plus Clune Van Andel‘s PAT — gave the Red Wolves an upset win to start Sun Belt play.
5. Baylor 35, Kansas State 34. OOF, K-State. The Wildcats have now lost four games by a combined 13 points. They led this one 31-17 with nine minutes left and were driving to basically put the game away, but Jacob Redding‘s 66-yard pick-six with 4:28 left gave the Bears a sudden lead. Luis Rodriguez‘s 22-yard field goal made it 34-32 KSU, but Connor Hawkins bombed in a 53-yarder at the buzzer, and Baylor moved to 2-1 in Big 12 play.
6. Washington 24, Maryland 20. I’m not going to lie: I stopped paying attention to this one when Maryland went up 20-0. Apparently Maryland did too.
7-8. Division III: No. 5 Wisconsin-La Crosse 23, No. 10 Wisconsin-Whitewater 20 (2OT); No. 17 Wisconsin-Oshkosh 21, No. 12 Wisconsin-River Falls 17. You know how I’m always nagging you about keeping up with the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference in Division III? If the first week of this year’s title race is any indication, the nagging isn’t going to cease anytime soon. The conference featured a pair of ranked-versus-ranked matchups, and both were thrillers.
After nearly 60 minutes of defensive dominance in Oshkosh, the offenses perked up late. Kaleb Blaha’s 2-yard run with 1:21 left capped a 92-yard drive and gave River Falls a 17-14 lead, but Oshkosh drove 66 yards in eight plays, and Quentin Keene’s 7-yard strike to Clayton Schwalbe gave the Titans a last-second win. But that was the mere undercard: The headliner in Whitewater, played in front of 20,167 — the second-largest on-campus crowd ever for a Division III game — saw La Crosse overcome a 17-0 halftime deficit and send the game to overtime with a late Gabe Lynch touchdown. Overtime was a field goal festival, but after Christian Powell recovered a strip-sack fumble, La Crosse earned a big walk-off road win with a 36-yard field goal from Michael Stack.
9. FCS: Western Carolina 23, Wofford 21. I should have probably given Western Carolina’s Taron Dickens a spot on the Heisman list above. He did, after all, complete 46 straight passes Saturday, an NCAA single-game record. Granted, they were mostly short passes — he finished 53-for-56 for 378 yards — and he needed every one of them to overcome three long Wofford touchdowns. But Marcus Trout‘s 34-yard field goal with 23 seconds left assured Dickens’ record day wasn’t in vain.
10. Division II: No. 8 Augustana 29, Sioux Falls 28. Sioux Falls was on its way to both a top-10 upset and a win in the Key to the City rivalry as the Cougars led 28-10 heading into the fourth quarter. But Augustana charged back, with two Richard Lucero Jr. touchdown passes sandwiching a 52-yard Jake Pecina field goal. Lucero’s 24-yard strike to Isaiah Huber gave Augie the lead with 1:18 left, and USF’s last-minute desperation drive stalled out near midfield.
Honorable mention:
12. Buffalo 31, Eastern Michigan 30 (OT)
13. No. 24 Virginia 30, Louisville 27 (OT)
14. Division II: Ferrum 28, Shorter 25
15. FCS: Dayton 35, Morehead State 28
16. Troy 31, South Alabama 24 (OT)
17. Western Kentucky 27, Delaware 24 (Friday)
18. Florida 29, No. 9 Texas 21
19. Division II: Minnesota State-Moorhead 40, Minot State 37 (OT)
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