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It’s time for the offseason! Which means it’s time for our annual way-too-early 2023 power rankings.

The 2022 season came to an end on Saturday night in Houston, as the Astros won their second World Series title since 2017 after defeating the Phillies in Game 6. What do the next few months have in store for the victors of the Fall Classic?

Let’s take stock of where all 30 teams stand right now as we head into what should be an exciting and intriguing free agency — I mean, I hope a dude who hit 62 home runs and is a free agent gets you excited about this offseason.

Final 2022 power rankings

2022 record: 106-56 (first in the AL West)

2022 final ranking: 2

With nearly the entire roster coming back for 2023, Houston’s incredible pitching depth makes the Astros a pretty easy call here. They allowed the fewest runs in a full season in the American League in the DH era (since 1973). Justin Verlander does have a $25 million player option, and even if he opts out and signs elsewhere, the Astros will still have the best pitching depth in the majors — especially with a full season from Lance McCullers Jr. and Hunter Brown, who copied Verlander’s delivery while growing up in Michigan, ready to step into a significant role.

The Astros even have some flexibility in the payroll to make a big addition. Given that Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are free agents after 2024, maybe they’ll be looking for a long-term power bat. You know, perhaps even a certain New York Yankees outfielder …


2022 record: 101-61 (first in the NL East)

2022 final ranking: 4

The Astros weren’t quite a slam dunk for the top spot, however, as the Braves dominated the final four months of the regular season to capture their fifth straight division title. The emergence of center fielder Michael Harris II and starters Spencer Strider and Kyle Wright raised this team to another level. Now picture a lineup with Ronald Acuna Jr. completely healthy again if he rediscovers his power stroke — he hit just 15 home runs in 119 games this season — after 2021’s knee surgery. Shortstop Dansby Swanson heads into free agency after his best season, and if he doesn’t return, maybe the Braves turn to Vaughn Grissom, who impressed playing second base down the stretch.

Bottom line: With Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Acuna and now Harris and Strider all signed well into the future, the Braves are going to compete for National League pennants for a long time.


2022 record: 89-73

2022 final ranking: 10

This might be a little ambitious since the Padres have some holes to fill in the rotation and at first base, but consider:

  1. They have three MVP-caliber talents in Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr., with Tatis now set to return from his PED suspension on April 20.

  2. They have elite defenders up the middle in center fielder Trent Grisham and shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, which could push Tatis to the outfield.

  3. Josh Hader, Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia and Nick Martinez are all back to anchor the bullpen, although maybe Martinez shifts to the rotation.

  4. They should have about $20 million to spend to add a starter and/or a first baseman.

Yes, there are concerns: Soto didn’t hit for much power after the trade, Tatis’ wrist needs to be healthy and the 40-man position player depth is thin. But if Soto and Tatis play to what we’ve seen in the past? Watch out.


2022 record: 86-76 (third in AL East)

2022 final ranking: 9

They won 86 games (tied for 12th in the majors), they struggled to score runs all season and then scored just one run in 24 innings in the wild-card series loss to Cleveland. So why are they ranked so high here? Yes, pitching, pitching and more pitching … but also because of this little factoid: According to @ManGamesLostMLB, the Rays had the fourth-most missed games by injured players (behind the Reds, Nationals and Cubs). And many of those were key injuries.

For starters, they’ll add Tyler Glasnow, who returned in September from Tommy John surgery, to a rotation of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs — and those three quietly combined for a 2.61 ERA (although former top prospect Shane Baz will miss 2023 after his own Tommy John surgery). The offense has to improve and it will, starting with Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco, who combined for just 148 games and 14 home runs.


2022 record: 111-51

2022 final ranking: 1

Most wins in the NL since the 1906 Cubs. Highest run differential since the 1939 Yankees. Led the majors in both runs scored and fewest runs allowed. And then, a brutal four-game loss to the Padres in the division series that left Dodgers fans crying that it was their most painful postseason defeat yet. Of course, you don’t go from 111 wins to pumpkins overnight, but the Dodgers do have several key agents to replace or re-sign: Trea Turner, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney — and Walker Buehler is out for the season. That’s 14.1 combined WAR and 76 starts.

Then there is the question of gearing up and doing it all over again. So far, that hasn’t been an issue for this group, but maybe one of these years they’ll slog through the first three months. They do have money to spend, with a current estimated payroll about $119 million less than 2022’s, according to FanGraphs’ Roster Resource (and that includes an estimated $18 million for Cody Bellinger, whom they could non-tender).

Of course, this ranking could go up by the time spring training rolls around and the Dodgers have signed Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa and Edwin Diaz.


2022 record: 87-75 (third in the NL East)

2022 final ranking: 11

Will the playoff run carry over into 2023? Maybe we’re giving too much emphasis to what happened in October, but this was certainly a better team under manager Rob Thomson than it was under former skipper Joe Girardi. All the core players return, although we’ll have to see if Bryce Harper needs Tommy John surgery to repair the injured elbow that limited him to DH duties.

Look for the Phillies to be aggressive once again in free agency. They could turn down the $17 million club option on Jean Segura, move Bryson Stott to second base and go after one of the big free-agent shortstops: Correa, Turner, Swanson and Xander Bogaerts. I like what Brandon Marsh will give them on defense in center field. And keep an eye on Andrew Painter, the team’s first-round pick in 2021 who cruised through three levels of the minors in 2022 and could join the rotation at some point in 2023 as a 20-year-old.


2022 record: 86-76 (second in the NL Central)

2022 final ranking: 13

In the end, the Brewers fell one game short of the Phillies for the final playoff spot, and you can’t help but wonder how that script plays out if they don’t trade Josh Hader. Still, the Brewers are in a good position, especially with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff heading the rotation. They hope to get more than 78 innings from Freddy Peralta, and young lefty Aaron Ashby has breakout potential after fanning 126 in 107 1/3 innings.

They also have an influx of young outfielders ready to make an impact in 2023: Garrett Mitchell (who already reached the majors), Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick. The Brewers were second in the NL in home runs, so they play the modern power game, even though the Christian Yelich contract has turned into a financial drain. A big key for the upcoming season is finding the right bullpen depth behind closer Devin Williams.


2022 record: 92-70

2022 final ranking: 7

The Jays won 92 games, were second in the AL in runs and Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman were a great one-two punch in the rotation, but the season still left an air of “we thought they would be better than this.” Maybe that’s because they went 16-3 against the Red Sox while struggling to score runs against the Yankees and Rays.

Their biggest obstacle moving forward is they’re paying Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu and Yusei Kikuchi a combined $46 million in 2023. That trio combined for a 5.26 ERA in 2022, with Ryu likely to miss most of next season after Tommy John surgery. Do the Jays count on better seasons from Berrios and Kikuchi or make an addition to the rotation? The offense and Manoah/Gausman might still make them the division favorites, and the payroll already sits at $215 million, but imagine this team with Carlos Rodon as the No. 3 starter.


2022 record: 93-69 (first in the NL Central)

2022 final ranking: 6

With 15 consecutive winning seasons, it’s hard to place the Cardinals much lower than this, even with concerns about the starting pitching — although it helps that Adam Wainwright announced that he will not be joining Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols in retirement.

The Cardinals will likely figure out a way to keep Nolan Arenado from exercising his opt-out clause. They also have a wave of young position players who have reached the majors — Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera — or soon will, especially Jordan Walker, perhaps the best hitting prospect in the minors. Getting a bounce-back season from Tyler O’Neill is key, and Jack Flaherty is a wild card at this point, but adding another starter in free agency — or using the prospect depth for a trade — tops the to-do list.


2022 record: 90-72

2022 final ranking: 12

The Mariners finally ended their long playoff drought that stretched back to 2001, and Julio Rodriguez emerged as a star at age 21. They beat the Blue Jays in the wild-card series and played the Astros tough in the division series, despite being swept. What’s interesting is the perception that the Mariners were all pitching and no hitting, though T-Mobile Park kind of masks some of the team’s strengths.

They were eighth in the majors in wRC+ (weighed runs created) and 12th in ERA+, so the offense was arguably on the same level or better than the pitching staff. That said, given the depth in the rotation with full seasons ahead from Luis Castillo and George Kirby, as well as a deep bullpen, the Mariners will still be looking to add offense after watching that 18-inning loss to Houston. If they don’t re-sign Mitch Haniger, they’ll need an outfielder. They could also sign one of the shortstops and move J.P. Crawford to second base — although president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said the team intends to keep Crawford at shortstop.


11. New York Yankees

2022 record: 99-63

2022 final ranking: 5

Manager Brian Cashman has too much experience to overreact to yet another disappointing trip to the postseason that left the Yankees short of the World Series for the 13th consecutive season. However, this lineup without Judge looks old and potentially mediocre: Josh Donaldson will be 37, DJ LeMahieu 34, Giancarlo Stanton 33, Aaron Hicks 33 and Anthony Rizzo 33 (if he returns). The Yankees have some youth on the way in Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe, but on the pitching side, Jameson Taillon is a free agent and Frankie Montas wasn’t right after coming over from the A’s.

With Hal Steinbrenner refusing to spend at the Dodgers’ level, can the Yankees really construct a roster that would pay Judge, Stanton and Gerrit Cole a combined $102 million (with Judge at $34 million)? That’s a hefty price for three players. So don’t rule out the Yankees going to Plan B in the offseason.


2022 record: 92-70

2022 final ranking: 8

The Guardians brought some 1980s-style baseball to 2022: Slap and dash, with some great defense and a shutdown closer in Emmanuel Clase. It got them one win away from the American League Championship Series. Can they do it again? In the AL Central, absolutely. They have three clear positions where they can add offense:

  1. Catcher, where they ranked 29th in the majors in OPS.

  2. Designated hitter, where they ranked 29th with an unacceptable .587 OPS and just eight home runs.

  3. Center field, where Myles Straw meant the Guardians ranked last in OPS.

Of course, they love Straw’s defense and have him signed through 2026, so let’s see if they address catcher and DH. The other big offseason question: Will they look to trade Shane Bieber, who will make more than $10 million in arbitration and has two seasons remaining of team control? Let’s hope not, but this is also how the Guardians operate.


2022 record: 101-61 (second in the NL East)

2022 final ranking: 3

No team will have a busier offseason than the Mets. Check out this list of potential free agents: Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Jacob deGrom (opt out), Chris Bassitt (mutual option), Taijuan Walker (player option), Carlos Carrasco (team option) … plus Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Adam Ottavino. Whoa. The Mets basically have to rebuild or re-sign an entire pitching staff. Luckily, they have an owner who is willing to empty the checkbook in Steve Cohen. They do return a strong offensive foundation and they did win 101 games with Max Scherzer and deGrom making just 34 starts. They also have some interesting young position players ready to play: catcher Francisco Alvarez, third baseman Brett Baty and first baseman/third baseman Mark Vientos. But this offseason will be all about free agency and who the Mets get and how much they spend.


2022 record: 74-88 (fourth in the NL West)

2022 final ranking: 19

My sleeper team for 2023: the Diamondbacks, who could be really fun to watch, mostly because of an exciting young outfield. Top prospects Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas made their debuts and Jake McCarthy had a surprising second half. All three are burners: Carroll ranked in the 100th percentile in speed, McCarthy in the 98th and Thomas in the 95th. Part-time outfielder/part-time catcher Daulton Varsho isn’t as fast as those three but has elite defensive metrics. That group is going to chase down everything in the gaps — and all of them hit left-handed, which is interesting as well. Zac Gallen quietly went 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA — including six straight scoreless starts — and matched Verlander for the lowest batting average allowed among starters at .186.

Arizona went 34-36 in the second half and outscored its opponents. I like the direction here, especially if the Diamondbacks can find some pitching depth — maybe that will be rookie Drey Jameson and Ryne Nelson, who both impressed in September call-ups.


2022 record: 83-79 (fourth in AL East)

2022 final ranking: 14

Baltimore had one of the most surprising, out-of-nowhere seasons in major league history, improving from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 in 2022. You have to love where the Orioles are headed: Adley Rutschman looks like a future MVP candidate, Gunnar Henderson might not be far behind and pitcher Grayson Rodriguez might be ready to help in 2023 — with 2022 No. 1 overall pick Jackson Holliday now one of the game’s top prospects. I do wonder if some of the pitching overachieved this season, especially a bullpen that ranked ninth in ERA but 21st in strikeout rate. The rotation was also just 21st in the majors in ERA with only Jordan Lyles topping 130 innings. Let’s hope the Orioles dip into free agency here to help balance out some likely regression.


2022 record: 81-81 (third in the NL West)

2022 final ranking: 15

Look, the Giants weren’t going to win 107 games again. Was regression to .500 predictable? Probably. The offense fell from second in the NL in runs to seventh and the pitching/defense from second in runs allowed to ninth. While the mix-and-match offense didn’t repeat the same magic tricks it performed in 2021, the good news is the Giants have cleared a lot of payroll, which will allow them to go after a couple of big pieces — most notably, Judge, who grew up a couple of hours from San Francisco. More important than geography, the Giants have the money and the need to sign Judge. Of course, Oracle Park isn’t the best fit, but if he does leave the Yankees, the Giants might be the leading contender to sign him. Carlos Correa is also a possible fit (Brandon Crawford is signed for one more year), unless they think top prospect Marco Luciano is on track to replace Crawford in 2024. They’ll also need to replace Rodon in the rotation and there is a general concern about what was the second-oldest lineup in the majors this season.


2022 record: 81-81 (second in the AL Central)

2022 final ranking: 16

There are excuses to consider — Luis Robert, Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez all missed significant time with injuries — but the disappointing season was mostly the result of too many subpar performances on a roster that didn’t have quality depth to survive a few injuries.

On the bright side, four-fifths of the rotation returns with Dylan Cease perhaps the preseason AL Cy Young favorite after going 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts in 184 innings. Lucas Giolito (4.90 ERA) needs to figure out what went wrong, and Michael Kopech has to pitch deeper into games after averaging less than five innings per start. The lineup still needs some left-handed balance, and Yoan Moncada needs to bounce back (although his big 2019 season looks more and more like a juiced-ball fluke). The biggest problem, however, might be owner Jerry Reinsdorf and his unwillingness to spend a few extra pennies to, you know, try to win the World Series.


2022 record: 74-88 (third in the NL Central)

2022 final ranking: 22

Where are the Cubs right now? Good question. They had a plus-55 run differential against the lowly Reds and Pirates and minus-129 against everyone else, so consider that a point of reference.

Will the Cubs spend money this offseason? Who knows. Are pitchers Justin Steele (3.18 ERA) and Keegan Thompson (3.76 ERA) the real deal? Who knows. Is Christopher Morel the hitter we saw in the first half (.814 OPS) or the second half (.645 OPS)? Who knows. Will the Cubs go after one of the free-agent shortstops or stay with Nico Hoerner, who had excellent defensive metrics? Who knows. With Willson Contreras heading into free agency, who is the catcher for 2023? Who knows.

The Cubs’ payroll in 2022 was about $63 million less than in 2019. The estimated payroll heading into the offseason is about $147 million — about $90 million less (with Jason Heyward‘s $22 million finally coming off the books after 2023). Let’s see how aggressive they get.


2022 record: 65-97 (fifth in AL Central)

2022 final ranking: 25

Yes, there’s reason to be optimistic about the Royals, mostly because of the young core of rookie position players that came up in 2022: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto all have 30-homer potential. Drew Waters and Nate Eaton can at least pick it in the outfield.

Dayton Moore — GM since May of 2006 — is out and J.J. Picollo, his top lieutenant, takes over. Now it’s time to clear out the underachieving veterans such as Hunter Dozier and Ryan O’Hearn to play the kids full-time. I love the potential for this young lineup. The pitching, however, is another matter, since outside of Brady Singer, the young starters struggled. We’ll see if Picollo can figure out the pitching side of things.


2022 record: 73-89 (third in AL West)

2022 final ranking: 20

What a weird, wild, sad season — from Joe Maddon’s bases-loaded intentional walk (and eventual firing as manager) to Shohei Ohtani‘s all-around brilliance to Mike Trout‘s quiet monster season (40 home runs in 119 games) to owner Arte Moreno’s declaration that he will sell the team.

Moreno purchased the team for $180 million in 2003; Forbes valued the franchise at $2.2 billion in March. It’s not that he didn’t spend money — although the Angels refused to ever go beyond the luxury tax — it’s just how poorly he spent the money when he did, from Albert Pujols to Josh Hamilton to Justin Upton to Anthony Rendon. Sure, there is some bad luck in there, but the Angels now have the longest playoff drought in the majors — and face the prospect this offseason of whether to trade Ohtani. That seems unlikely — but if the Angels are out of it at the trade deadline, they might have to sense that Ohtani would appear guaranteed to bolt elsewhere in 2024.


2022 record: 78-84 record (third in the AL Central)

2022 final ranking: 18

They went 33-24 against the Royals, Tigers and White Sox — and 45-60 against everybody else. It was an especially disappointing season because the weak AL Central was there for the taking. The team that set a major league record with 307 home runs in 2019 was just seventh in the AL in 2022. The rotation was just 27th in innings pitched, and the bullpen wasn’t dominant enough (15th in ERA) to pick up the slack. Carlos Correa will leave after his one year in Minnesota, so now the Twins need a shortstop. Some of the top prospects haven’t taken off, whether due to injury (Royce Lewis) or performance (Austin Martin), Byron Buxton isn’t on the field often enough to be the team’s best player, and they could use a staff ace. It would be nice if the Pohlad brothers would pump the payroll a little higher considering the Twins haven’t been in the top half of payroll at any point in the past decade.


2022 record: 68-94 (fourth in the AL West)

2022 final ranking: 21

Ownership is growing impatient, given the firing in August of longtime executive Jon Daniels (with GM and former pitcher Chris Young taking over the top role). To be fair, a 15-35 record in one-run games means the team underperformed its Pythagorean record (77-85).

Texas hired Bruce Bochy with the expectation to win now. We’ll see about that. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien were more good than great in their first seasons, although I guess you can’t complain about 59 home runs from your middle infield (especially since Semien didn’t hit his first until the team’s 45th game). This team still needs starting pitching — and that’s with Martin Perez, the team’s best starter, heading to free agency — so that could make the Rangers one of the favorites to land deGrom.


2022 record: 78-84 (fifth in the AL East)

2022 final ranking: 17

It’s hard to know what to make of the Red Sox right now with two last-place finishes sandwiched around a playoff trip in 2021. Xander Bogaerts was their best player in 2022, and he’s expected to opt out of his player option and head into free agency. Boston can slide Trevor Story over to shortstop, although his arm strength is an issue, so maybe the Red Sox will sign another of the free-agent shortstops (or a stopgap until top prospect Marcelo Mayer is ready).

Their top two pitchers via WAR were Michael Wacha and John Schreiber, which is not a path to success, as the Red Sox finished 22nd in the majors in rotation ERA and 26th in bullpen ERA. Wacha, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill are all free agents, which is 69 starts to figure out. The hope is 30 of those will come from Chris Sale, who made just two starts in 2022 after suffering a stress fracture in his rib cage, a broken pinkie and then a fractured wrist in a bicycle accident.

Some veterans like Alex Verdugo and Enrique Hernandez are capable of better seasons, and the Red Sox have money to spend, but this feels like a roster in disarray.


2022 record: 69-93 (fourth in the NL East)

2022 final ranking: 23

The Marlins’ last winning record in a full season came back in 2009. Since 2010, they have the worst record in the majors. Where are the signs of improvement? Not counting the pandemic-shortened season when Miami did make the playoffs, the Marlins have averaged a 64-98 record since 2018. Nothing sums up the plight of this franchise more than the offseason signings of Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler for a combined $89 million (and the fourth- and sixth-largest free-agent contracts in franchise history). The two veterans combined for minus-0.7 WAR. And then you have Trevor Rogers, who had a great rookie season in 2021 and regressed to a 5.47 ERA. Outfielder JJ Bleday came up and hit .167. One step forward, two steps backward. Hey, at least Sandy Alcantara is awesome.


2022 record: 60-102 (fifth in the AL West)

2022 final ranking: 29

Billy Beane has been through rebuilds, but never before had the A’s lost 102 games under him. It was the worst season in Oakland since the infamous 1979 club lost 108 and averaged less than 4,000 fans per game. This team wasn’t much more watchable — at least the 1979 A’s had rookie Rickey Henderson. Like a lot of clubs, the A’s struggled big-time on offense: They had six players with at least 100 at-bats who hit under .200 and 13 under .225. Yuck. The starting rotation led the AL in home runs allowed, despite playing in a pitchers’ park. Lefties Ken Waldichuk and JP Sears, acquired from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas trade, dominated the minors and will be given shots in the rotation. The A’s need them to develop into quality starters, but the franchise’s inability or unwillingness to spend money means the offense will probably struggle once again.


2022 record: 62-100 (tied for fourth in the NL Central)

2022 final ranking: 28

The Pirates followed up a 101-loss season with 100 losses, so you can say they improved — or you can point out it was their first back-to-back 100-loss seasons since 1954, which is saying something considering the Pirates have had just four winning seasons out of the past 30. A lot of the hope in Pittsburgh rests on the mercurial talents of Oneil Cruz, who displayed dazzling raw power, arm strength and speed, but also a terrifying strikeout rate and questionable range at shortstop. The biggest offseason question is whether the Pirates will trade away center fielder Bryan Reynolds.


2022 record: 68-94 (fifth in the NL West)

2022 final ranking: 24

Hey, let’s just let owner Dick Monfort speak for the 2022 season: “Our road record was abysmal, our defense was not what we are accustomed to, our situational hitting was disappointing, and our pitching was inconsistent,” he wrote in a letter to fans. “Excuses serve no purpose, and we are committed to devoting all our efforts this offseason to improving this team for 2023.” The problem is the Rockies don’t seem to realize they’re not good and are happy enough signing Kris Bryant and thinking that’s all they need to do. Imagine if they did something creative: Sign Aaron Judge! Let him hit 72 home runs at Coors Field! Instead, it will be more of the same, followed by another inevitable Monfort letter apologizing for another bad season.


2022 record: 62-100 (tied for fourth in the NL Central)

2022 final ranking: 26

They started out 3-22, tied for the worst 25-game start in the wild-card era (since 1995). They finished 59-78 … and, well, that’s still bad. There were a lot of bad teams in 2022. Too many. That’s for another discussion. As for the Reds, they’re in the early stages of a teardown and rebuild — not that they’re tearing down from much success, the high point being a playoff berth during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. I like Hunter Greene‘s potential — he had a 1.02 ERA over his final six starts, although those were sandwiched around a shoulder injury. Nick Lodolo also has top-end potential in the rotation. But the team’s best position player in 2022 was Triple-A vagabond Brandon Drury, who ended the season with the Padres. Really, it seems like owner Bob Castellini is just counting down the days until after the 2023 season when he can buy out Joey Votto‘s last season (sorry, Joey!) and Mike Moustakas — and be in position to run perhaps the lowest payroll in the league. Enjoy, Reds fans!


2022 record: 66-96 (fourth in the AL Central)

2022 final ranking: 27

Well, that was ugly. Javier Baez led the team with just 17 home runs. The offense posted the worst wRC+ in the majors and scored the fewest runs. Tarik Skubal led the Tigers with just 21 starts and closer Gregory Soto lost 11 games. Preseason Rookie of the Year candidate Spencer Torkelson hit his way back to Triple-A and finished with minus-1.3 WAR. Casey Mize underwent Tommy John surgery. Owner Chris Ilitch fired general manager Al Avila in August. I’m trying to find something positive to say here, but it’s hard. Good luck to Scott Harris, who comes over from the Giants to run baseball operations.


2022 record: 55-107 (fifth in the NL East)

2022 final ranking: 30

This is the easiest call on the board. The Nationals had the majors’ worst record, the worst run differential and are also in the process of being sold. The big league roster is devoid of frontline talent and depth and there is no reason to spend in free agency. Oh, and they play in a loaded division. Even the young players who are supposed to be the foundation for the future struggled: Starter Josiah Gray allowed both the most home runs and walks in the NL, and shortstop CJ Abrams had a .276 OBP with no home runs in 163 plate appearances with Nationals (drawing just one walk). The Juan Soto trade added a couple of intriguing outfield prospects in James Wood and Robert Hassell III, who perhaps gets a look in 2023. The Nats are a good bet to lose 100 again — and, remember, the top six choices in the draft are now done via lottery, so they’re not even guaranteed the top overall pick in 2023 (or 2024).

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Wetzel: A defense of the CFP committee? It’s not perfect, but nothing in this sport can be

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Wetzel: A defense of the CFP committee? It's not perfect, but nothing in this sport can be

The purpose of the College Football Playoff selection committee is to sort through the unsortable — deciding between two teams of similar accomplishment.

This sport is a spectacular mess, of course, famously and belovedly so. The FBS level has 136 teams playing 12 regular-season games competing for one championship. The schedules are disparate, even within the current oversize “conferences.”

No one would design such a thing. Big schools. Small schools. State schools. Religious institutions. Even three military academies. From L.A. (Los Angeles) to L.A. (Lower Alabama). It’s glorious.

If a proper computer formula exists to figure out who should or shouldn’t be in a playoff, none has earned the trust of the sport. College football, after all, ain’t much for college.

So, it has a selection committee — 13 people who make the final, difficult, no-truly-correct-answer call. Their thanks comes from a barrage of hate courtesy of whomever they didn’t choose.

That there is controversy, hard feelings and anger doesn’t mean the system isn’t working.

It’s a sign that it is.

A sport that used to leave unbeaten teams out of the title game is now arguing about 10-2 and 9-3 clubs. A postseason that was once a collection of mostly meaningless exhibition bowl games designed as tourism campaigns is now anchored by a 12-team, 11-game free-for-all.

At least half a dozen teams must believe they can actually win the national title. Maybe more. Four playoff games will be staged on campuses, not at antiseptic NFL stadiums. The title will be settled on the field. This is the good stuff.

It’s why everyone needs to exhale for a moment.

Don’t let the pursuit of (unachievable) perfection get in the way of progress. This is always going to be an imperfect operation.

Would it be better if the ACC’s tiebreaker system didn’t malfunction and both Miami (as ACC champ) and Notre Dame (as an at-large selection) were in the field? Of course. But the presence of James Madison and some Fighting Irish disappointment shouldn’t cause anyone to take a wrecking ball to this entire enterprise.

College athletics is famous for knee-jerk decisions that it comes to regret. It too often makes policy via emotional swings and selfish reasoning without vision for the future.

Leagues get blown up (or expanded) for basic cable subscriptions (which are already dwindling). Legal cases are waged on the idea NIL will decrease competitive balance (Indiana is currently ranked No. 1). Congress is lobbied with hysterics that the sport needs “saving” (all while interest, revenue and television ratings rise).

The latest overreaction is to kill off this 2-year-old playoff for a bigger model that will supposedly be controversy-free (impossible) — one with 24 teams, at least, or with four automatic bids to certain conferences or who knows what else.

The committee is the punching bag. Subjectivity is the wedge issue. Conspiracies are everywhere. Emotions are running hot.

Look, there is one sure way for major programs to get into this thing: win your conference. If not, then you get into the knife fight that is the at-large selection process. Anything can happen. Criteria can shift. Decisions can seem unfair or arbitrary.

If, like Notre Dame, you find more overall value in independence, then this is your trade-off. It isn’t going to work as you wish every time.

Are there improvements and tweaks that can be made? Of course.

The committee should no longer release weekly rankings during the back half of the season. A single verdict should come out at the end. The current setup is good for content (including here at ESPN, which broadcasts the weekly rankings), but it undermines the credibility of the process. The week-to-week contradictions are maddening and, even worse, can box in the committee’s final decision.

Bloated leagues could return to divisions in an effort to create scheduling structure or find other ways to fix tiebreakers (ahem, ACC).

Two rounds of home games would increase the importance of seeding and bring more campuses and local communities into the fold. That would serve fans and families rather than bowl directors.

Conference championship weekend could even be eliminated altogether; if Alabama can get beaten soundly and not drop, then was it even a real game? (And yes, BYU, we see you.) That would move the playoff up a week and allow for the semifinals on New Year’s Day and a title game in early January rather than during the heart of the NFL postseason.

Of course, ending conference title games would require leaving money on the table, not to mention unwinding complicated media and hosting contracts, so it’s a heavy lift.

The minor tweaks are fine, though, as long as the regular season continues to matter. That has to be the North Star. This committee maintained that by valuing Miami’s Week 1 victory over Notre Dame. Yes, it should have made that determination weeks earlier, but it’s never too late to do the right thing.

A playoff that gets so big where results don’t matter very much or, as the Big Ten proposal would have, where Michigan and Iowa are still alive via play-in rounds forever alters how the sport is played.

Better to have one or two bitter 10-2 teams out there at the end.

Better to have cries and screams and a little bit of infuriation.

Better to have those 13 people in a meeting room making a decision.

Because in this wonderfully chaotic and disorganized sport, the selection committee, to channel some Winston Churchill, might indeed be the worst system ever, except for all the others.

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The NHL’s best this week: Terry Ryan and hockey dreams

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The NHL's best this week: Terry Ryan and hockey dreams

Terry Ryan is living out a hockey player’s dream. It’s just not the exact one he grew up dreaming.

One of the stars of the hit show “Shoresy,” the hockey-centered comedy that has acted as equal parts love letter to the sport and cultural tastemaker, Ryan will join his castmates (all of whom are also hockey players achieving various levels of success) on Dec. 10 at UBS Arena on Long Island as part of the Shoresy Fall Classic, a multistop tour across Canada and the United States where the cast plays games typically against the alumni of that NHL team.

“Aaron Asham is one of my best friends in the world. I played junior and pro with him,” Ryan said of the retired 15-year NHL veteran who played four seasons with the New York Islanders. “So I’m looking forward to that.”

The pace of play is higher than most people think heading in, the 48-year-old noted, adding “we’re not out there trying to hurt each other or anything, but it’s a step up from a regular shinny game.”

“It’s a very unique experience. I don’t know if I’ve ever come across anything like it whereby the fans are cheering for both teams,” he said. “Even though we lose — we’ve been losing most of the games — we’re not getting blown out, and I think people walk away with an appreciation that, you know, we’re all actors in the show, but we’re all hockey players. We’re a pretty good team. We hang in there.”

The event, which also includes a Q&A with the cast, was sparked by the massive popularity of the show, which will release its fifth season in Canada on Christmas Day and on Hulu in early 2026 (its parent show, “Letterkenny,” wrapped up with 12 seasons and 81 episodes).

As for Ryan, he was the No. 8 pick in the 1995 draft of the Montreal Canadiens, and achieved his dream of playing in the NHL — but played only eight games with the Habs. He then spent six seasons with different AHL teams after an ankle injury brought his NHL dreams to a halt.

The Newfoundland native continued to play in various leagues while pursuing another career — film and television. But not as an actor.

“I got an arts degree in folklore and English, and within that there’s a film studies certificate. I worked on a crew, I mean like location [scouting], production assistant, AD. I was like ‘jump how high’ for six years,” he said. “Then I spilled over, I did some stunts, and then because I have no tooth, I got to play some parts like, you know, British soldiers, crackheads, pimps, drug dealers, stuff like that. … My entrance into this world was a lot different than the other guys [on the Shoresy cast].”

Eventually, Ryan did cross paths with one Hollywood star, who took him under his wing.

“There’s a show on Netflix called ‘Frontier.’ I was on crew, I was waiting to get in the union. I met Jason Momoa. He came along with [producers] and gave me a chance,” Ryan said. “I had no tooth, Momoa said, ‘Keep the tooth out. I can get you some stunt gigs.’

“Five seconds into the show, I’m the very first face you see. It’s a British soldier begging for his life, and I’ve got no tooth obviously … they got me that role. That’s how I got in.”

Ryan and Momoa also shared a love for hockey. Ryan taught Momoa and members of the crew how to skate (in Momoa’s case, the finer points).

“I don’t know how many times we went out on the ice, maybe 100 times,” Ryan recalled.

Ryan also taught Momoa the intricacies of a hockey fight.

“When we first [fought], I just shook him and beat him in a fight,” Ryan said. “I said, ‘It’s all about balance, man. You can be as big as you want.’

“Anyway, he laughed … trust me, if he hit me with one, it wouldn’t matter. [Momoa] wanted to get in a hockey fight [in the second season of ‘Frontier’], so, like, I’m [wearing] the British red coat, and he pulls the thing over, and he simulates a hockey fight.”

Momoa helped Ryan get several stunt gigs and even hired Ryan as his assistant for a period of time. Eventually, “Letterkenny” called with the role of Ted Hitchcock, a lovable hockey player from Newfoundland with a penchant for “martoonies,” which led to “Shoresy.”

And now, the show and cast enjoy a level of success that allows them to play in hockey games against NHL players across North America, with thousands of people cheering them from the stands. In a very circuitous way, a version of Ryan’s hockey dreams did come true.

Jump ahead:
Games of the week
What I loved this weekend
Hart Trophy candidates
Social post of the week
Stick taps

Biggest games of the week

I’m getting into “watch every Colorado Avalanche game” territory. I saw them live for the first time this season at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, and it was incredibly fun. Nathan MacKinnon had a pair of goals, including a nasty backhand overtime winner under the crossbar that he made look absolutely effortless.

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Nathan MacKinnon skates through Rangers defense to score dazzling OT winner

Nathan MacKinnon makes a sweet move and scores on the backhand to give the Avalanche an overtime win.

We’ve been focusing a lot on the lack of regulation losses for Denver’s team — only two so far this season. But we can now start keeping an eye on points in general, because the Avs are are currently on pace for 58 wins and 134 points this season.

That would be second-most points by any team in a season in NHL history, behind the 2022-23 Bruins (135).

If things keep rolling, the Avalanche have a chance to make history. They have build a solid foundation for it. They have the players. Could they do it?

Weeks in mid-December can sort of fly under the radar in the course of the regular season, but these are the ones where teams chasing history work in the shadows and build. The Avs visit the Nashville Predators on Tuesday, host the Florida Panthers on Thursday and then have the Preds at home Saturday. It could be a three-win week for the NHL’s premier team.


Other key games this week

Monday, 9 p.m. | ESPN+


Tuesday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Tuesday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN


Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Thursday, 8 p.m. | ESPN+


Saturday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Saturday, 8 p.m. | ESPN+


Sunday, 6 p.m. | ESPN+


What I loved this weekend

The Athletic’s Murat Ates wrote a story about the mental health journey of Winnipeg Jets forward Gabriel Vilardi. The story, which includes raw and honest reflection from Vilardi, is equal parts fascinating and emotional. This quote from Vilardi was particularly humbling and something that certainly many athletes probably go through during a game:

“For me, negative self-talk is not just panic attacks; it’s something that I deal with a lot. And it drags on. It starts with one play. Then it’s like, ‘Oh s—, I’ve got to make up for that play.’ Then it drags on to three shifts because you’re still thinking in your head that you’ve got to make up for it. Next thing you know, it’s a period and it’s like, ‘F—, I’ve only got two periods left.’ I was in my head the whole first period.”

Sports psychologist Dr. Alicia Naser — who works with NHL players such as Seattle Kraken forward Shane Wright and Calgary Flames center John Beecher along with other professional athletes — has helped to normalize the discussions, particular through her social media content, which includes bite-sized wisdom and actionable items related to mental health and performance that can benefit anyone watching or reading.


Hart Trophy contenders if the season ended today

Nathan MacKinnon times three. That’s it.

But really, MacKinnon obviously remains on the list. He’s currently on pace for 70 goals and 140 points this season; if he reaches those totals, he’d be the fifth player in NHL history to do it, joining Wayne Gretzky (who did it four times), Mario Lemieux (twice), Bernie Nicholls (1988-89) and Phil Esposito (1970-71). MacKinnon would also have the first 70-goal season since Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny did it in 1992-93 (both with 76 goals).

As for the second contender, that goes to Connor McDavid. He pulled into second place in the points race, now six back of MacKinnon with 42; he also leads the league in assists (28).

Indeed, this might be the week it becomes a two-player race. For that reason, I’m giving one more nod in this section to both Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, because one (or both) might be unseated as early as next week. I kind of hope I’m wrong though.


Social media post of the week

It definitely isn’t the 6-7 cam at MSG, or Sam Bennett taking part in the trend.

My choice this week is new hockey fan Big Z on TikTok. It feels as if every few years someone goes viral (at least in the hockey bubble) for finding out how exciting hockey is. It’s fun to live vicariously through someone who is experiencing the same joy we all once did as hockey fans.

Big Z’s joy over seeing Alex Ovechkin and Dustin Byfuglien deliver checks, or lamenting a Red Wings shootout loss (but still saying that he needs to buy a jersey), is fantastic.


Stick taps

The Washington Capitals have partnered with WWE to release a limited edition collab for John Cena’s final WWE match before he retires, taking place Saturday. The shirt features Cena wearing a Caps hat holding a towel in his iconic pose that reads “Let’s Go Caps.”

I’m all for more partnerships like this. City-specific merchandise is on the rise and often becomes a collector’s item. WWE also has championship belts specific to teams across multiple sports, including the NHL.

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What Buster Olney, Jeff Passan are hearing about Schwarber’s suitors, top free agents and blockbuster trades

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What Buster Olney, Jeff Passan are hearing about Schwarber's suitors, top free agents and blockbuster trades

MLB’s winter meetings begin Monday in Orlando, Florida, signaling the time when baseball’s offseason activity is likely to take off.

What’s the latest on free agent hitters, including coveted sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker? Will Framber Valdez find a new home now that fellow top free agent pitcher Dylan Cease is off the board? What’s the latest on a trade market featuring stars such as Ketel Marte and Steven Kwan? And which teams could surprise the sport by making a big splash in Florida?

Here is the latest intel Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are hearing on the players, teams and themes that will rule this year’s meetings.


Last year’s winter meetings were all about Juan Soto — is there one free agent or theme on everyone’s mind going into the meetings this year?

Olney: Some agents and execs are saying the money for free agents is generally locked down. There are outliers, of course — the Toronto Blue Jays are doing their thing, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, A’s and Miami Marlins are all angling for a We Are Trying posture.

The very elite guys, such as Kyle Schwarber, will get their money. But there are early indications that a lot of the teams that are traditionally aggressive might be more conservative this winter, perhaps because of the looming labor situation — and that could lead to more trades, rather than investments in free agents, as teams look to plug holes.

Passan: When does the Kyle Schwarber dam break? Several teams’ fortunes — from Philadelphia to Cincinnati to Pittsburgh to Boston to Baltimore to the New York Mets — depend on where Schwarber goes. The belief among teams is that it will take five years to secure the 32-year-old, and once that happens — perhaps sometime during the meetings — teams will start pivoting, and the action will pick up demonstrably.


Which top free agent hitter is most likely to sign during the winter meetings?

Olney: In recent winters, the Blue Jays wanted to spend big and couldn’t entice Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto to take their money. Now, some free agents could need Toronto, if some of the big-money teams pass on pricey moves. Kyle Tucker has been projected as a $400 million-plus player, but it might behoove him to move quickly if he gets an early, aggressive bid from the Jays (or some other team).

This is not a winter in which you want to be waiting for the big offers to materialize, as they did for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in past offseasons.

Passan: Schwarber is the best bet. Tucker isn’t close to done yet. Cody Bellinger has a healthy market but is biding his time. Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette are world-class infielders with ample, moneyed suitors. Pete Alonso‘s signing could go down after Schwarber.

What’s clear is that there’s a group of teams that will spend on a big bat (Phillies, Red Sox, Blue Jays), a number surveying multiple options (Yankees, Mets, Cubs) and a handful that would do so opportunistically (Orioles, Tigers, Reds, Pirates). Others could emerge depending on how the market plays out and what trade possibilities emerge.


Which other hitters could move quickly at the meetings?

Olney: Cedric Mullins‘ choice to sign for a one-year, $7 million, with the Tampa Bay Rays could be a warning sign for this free agent class. Mullins was not a perfect free agent by any measure, after his struggles with the Mets, but the rapidity with which he agreed to a deal could reflect the general feeling that this market could play out like a game of musical chairs — if you’ve got offers in hand, it’d be best to move fast and grab a spot (and money). Jorge Polanco could be among those who sign sooner rather than later — he’s coveted by the Mariners and some other teams. Harrison Bader set himself up well with a strong performance in Philadelphia.

Passan: If Schwarber goes early, everyone is in play. Otherwise, the second tier of hitters includes infielder Jorge Polanco, catcher J.T. Realmuto and Japanese corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto, and teams believe there could be momentum toward deals with them. Another popular hitter: infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who could return to Atlanta — which still needs a shortstop — on a shorter-term deal or seek longer-term security elsewhere.


Now that Dylan Cease has signed, which big-name aces could move next?

Olney: It depends on your definition of “big name.” Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, future Hall of Famers, will find landing spots, but they are on the downslopes of their remarkable careers; they can wait, and there is a presumption that Scherzer could pitch for his good friend, new San Francisco Giants manager Tony Vitello.

If you’re talking about the guys who will be getting paid the most, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez are next up, and there are clearly teams with which they could fit. The Mets need an ace; the Orioles need an ace. But the perceived expectations for Valdez’s next deal are high early in this offseason, evaluators say, and any team that bids on Suarez has to get comfortable with investing in a guy who doesn’t throw hard — which is not common in this era.

Passan: Teams in the mix for Suarez believe he’s the next big-time starter off the board. Though the 30-year-old won’t fetch a Dylan Cease-level deal, he long has been a target for Houston, which balks at deals beyond six years, and Baltimore, which is seeking a top-end rotation piece. Right-hander Michael King has widespread interest because of his frontline potential with a willingness to sign for a shorter term than the top starters. Also worth watching: right-hander Merrill Kelly, who at 37 is in line for a multiyear deal. Arguably the best starter in the class, Valdez is often among the league leaders in innings with a playoff résumé, and his market will unfold alongside the best hitters’.


Will we see a run of reliever signings following Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley getting deals?

Olney: Not necessarily, because there are so many relievers available — more than 100 unsigned free agents. Pete Fairbanks could be among the next to sign, and the 35-year-old Robert Suarez. Edwin Diaz‘s free agency is fascinating because he’s the best available pitcher in an offseason in which there are few teams seemingly prepared to invest a nine-figure contract on a short reliever. He has been linked to the Mets, of course, and the Blue Jays, but each of those teams has been filling other holes, so far.

Passan: The run on relievers is slowing slightly, though Fairbanks and Kyle Finnegan are the closers who could be had sooner than later. Tyler Rogers is primed to get a three-year deal, as is Brad Keller, who could transition to be a starter. Luke Weaver will get multiple years. The left-handed market is thin and led by Steven Matz, Caleb Ferguson, Taylor Rogers, Gregory Soto and Sean Newcomb. Diaz and Robert Suarez are the two best relievers left, and they are likely to wait for the larger market to shake out.


Which players will be mentioned most in winter meetings trade discussions?

Olney: It makes sense for teams that have trade candidates under team control into 2027 to weigh offers now because they might struggle to get proper value for those players next July, given the labor uncertainty after the season. That means players such as Mackenzie Gore of the Nationals — and Paul Toboni, Washington’s president of baseball operations, said in a “Baseball Tonight” podcast interview Wednesday that he has talked with Gore about hearing his name in trade rumors — and Kwan of the Guardians.

Interestingly, other teams report that the Twins haven’t been pushing Joe Ryan in trade discussions. Maybe that’s because they don’t have to, or, in the opinion of some evaluators, Minnesota could prefer to keep Ryan. The Diamondbacks told interested teams in July that they wouldn’t trade Marte, but their posture now is very different; they have to improve their rotation, and the quickest way to do that would be to swap Marte.

Passan: Multiple executives see a flurry of potential trades, headlined by Marte, Arizona’s All-Star second baseman. The Diamondbacks aren’t clamoring to move him. They also know that with five very affordable years under contract, Marte is among the most valuable players in baseball, thanks to his combination of productivity and cost. Another second baseman teams are considering: Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe.

Miami is almost certain to move a starting pitcher this winter, and Edward Cabrera has generated the most interest. Boston has been discussing its outfield surplus with multiple teams. Pittsburgh wants to trade a starter for a hitter. The Brendan Donovan market remains conflagrant, as St. Louis considers whether its rebuild will include him or the hefty return he would fetch.


Which is one surprise team to watch at the winter meetings?

Olney: We aren’t accustomed to seeing the Pirates, Marlins or A’s among the most aggressive teams, but they seem to be like college freshmen holding credit cards for the first time — some agents think they’ll add something in the range of $25 million to $30 million in payroll, either in salaries acquired through trades or in free agency.

Passan: After getting Helsley in free agency and Taylor Ward in a trade, the Orioles are looking to land a big player — and though the priority is pitching, they’re not against targeting a hitter, either. The Los Angeles Angels, whose last major free agent signing for more than $65 million was Anthony Rendon in December 2019, are still looking to bolster their rotation after trading for Grayson Rodriguez and signing Alek Manoah.


What else are you hearing that will shape the winter meetings?

Olney: The juiciest rumor I heard this week was the notion that the Mets could push the Phillies for Schwarber, and there are a lot of reasons this could make sense. Beyond Schwarber’s power and on-base capability — can you imagine pitchers working to get through Schwarber and Soto in the same inning? — he is known as someone who works to pull players together. And hell, even if the Mets don’t believe they can beat the Phillies in the bidding for the slugger, they could push Philadelphia’s cost by being involved, as the Braves did with Aaron Nola two winters ago.

There’s a lot of talk among teams about Murakami, the free agent corner infielder who is making his way from Japan — and skepticism, in some front offices, about how his skill set will play in the big leagues, given his big swing-and-miss profile and the perception that his defense could be a problem. But all he needs in this bidding is for one team (or more) to fall in love with his big-time power.

Passan: If Schwarber signs and unclogs the market, expect others to fall — either toward the end of the meetings or in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai could wind up with a big-market team on the East Coast, and the New York Yankees — with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon expected to miss the start of the season — New York Mets and Philadelphia are reasonable landing spots. All three have interest in Bellinger, too. Another Japanese star, Munetaka Murakami, is more likely to sign in the period between the meetings and holidays. With the paucity of center fielders in free agency and on the trade market, Bader has a healthy market.

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